责任编辑：秦艺 1月20日金融一线消息，自然资源部、住房城乡建设部发布关于进一步支持城市更新行动若干措施的通 知。通知提到，健全多元化投融资方式。加大中央预算内投资等支持力度，通过超长期特别国债对符合 条件的项目给予支持。中央财政要支持实施城市更新行动。地方政府要加大财政投入，推进相关资金整 合和统筹使用，在债务风险可控前提下，通过发行地方政府专项债券对符合条件的城市更新项目予以支 持，严禁违法违规举债融资。落实城市更新相关税费减免政策。鼓励各类金融机构在依法合规、风险可 控、商业可持续的前提下积极参与城市更新，强化信贷支持。完善市场化投融资模式，吸引社会资本参 与城市更新，推动符合条件的项目发行基础设施领域不动产投资信托基金（REITs）、资产证券化产 品、公司信用类债券等。 1月20日金融一线消息，自然资源部、住房城乡建设部发布关于进一步支持城市更新行动若干措施的通 知。通知提到，健全多元化投融资方式。加大中央预算内投资等支持力度，通过超长期特别国债对符合 条件的项目给予支持。中央财政要支持实施城市更新行动。地方政府要加大财政投入，推进相关资金整 合和统筹使用，在债务风险可控前提下，通过发行地方政府专项债 ...

| 要素 | 要求 | 详情 | | --- | --- | --- | | 适用范围 (Scope) | 银行、经纪交易商、开发性银行、符合条 | 适用于非集中清算的场外(OTC) 衍生品 | | | 件的投资基金 | | | 交换阈值(Exchange Threshold) | 200亿 UDI | 仅在此级别以上需要IM/VM | | 初始保证金 (Initial Margin) | 每个交易对手需要超过1. 25亿个UDI | 需隔离存放;不允许再利用 | | 变动保证金 (Variation Margin) | 每日结算要求 | 反映当前的风险敬口;无阈值限制 | | 最低划转金额(Minimum Transfer Amount) | 125万 UDI | 低于最低转账金额的金额无需兑换 | | 抵押品 (Collateral) | 现金及符合条件的证券 | 适用折扣率(Haircuts);关联机构发 行的证券不符合资格 | | 托管 (Custody) | 符合条件的墨西哥或外国托管机构 | 使用外国托管机构需提供法律意见书 | 合规检查清单 确认适用范围内的交易对手分类。 确保已签署抵押品支持附 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the USD/CAD exchange rate is experiencing a slight rebound, driven primarily by the correlation with international oil prices and ongoing trade concerns between the US and Europe [1][2]. - The recent adjustments in the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations suggest that US rates will remain elevated for a longer period, which supports the USD's relative strength while limiting the potential for a significant pullback against the CAD [2]. - The technical analysis of the USD/CAD exchange rate shows a generally strong upward trend, with key support levels above 1.3800 and significant resistance around 1.3900-1.3920, indicating a range-bound market influenced by oil price fluctuations and US monetary policy expectations [3]. Group 2 - The market sentiment remains cautious due to uncertainties surrounding trade dynamics and energy demand, which could impact the CAD's performance against the USD [2]. - The interplay between oil price movements and US monetary policy is crucial for the USD/CAD exchange rate, with macroeconomic risks still present, suggesting a likely continuation of the range-bound trading between 1.38 and 1.39 [3]. - Future developments in oil prices and US economic data will be critical in shaping the market's outlook on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and the overall USD/CAD exchange rate trajectory [3].

记者 辛圆 财政部等部门1月20日对外发布两项通知，明确优化实施服务业经营主体贷款贴息政策和个人消费贷款 财政贴息政策。 《通知》提到，将个人消费贷款财政贴息政策实施期限延长至2026年底。调整后，个人消费贷款财政贴 息政策实施期为2025年9月1日至2026年12月31日。居民在上述期限内发生的符合条件的消费可按规定享 受贴息。政策到期后，将根据实施效果视情研究延长政策期限等。 1月9日，国务院总理李强主持召开国务院常务会议，部署实施财政金融协同促内需一揽子政策。会议特 别提到，围绕促进居民消费，优化实施服务业经营主体贷款、个人消费贷款贴息政策，推动增加优质服 务供给，增强居民消费能力。 在外部不确定性明显增大的背景下，扩大消费将扮演关键角色，而服务业是提振消费的重要抓手。 统计数据显示，2020至2024年，我国居民服务性消费支出年均增长9.6%，保持较快增长。2025年1-11月 份，服务零售额同比增长5.4%，假期出行消费、演唱会经济等服务消费表现亮眼。 财信金控首席经济学家伍超明表示，财政贷款贴息有助于缓解服务业企业的流动性压力，为其设备更 新、服务升级提供低成本资金支持。 《通知》提到，取消《财政 ...

2026年1月16日，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）主席保罗·阿特金斯提议进行结构性改革，以减轻小型公 司的披露负担，并指出自20世纪90年代以来，美国上市公司数量下降了 40%。 其主要改革措施包括根据公司规模/成熟度调整要求，以及改为半年一次的报告，并设定了2026年的规 则制定时间表。 该议程旨在降低合规成本并重振IPO活动，但有可能加剧信息不对称和投资者对小型公司的怀疑。 全球监管差异和潜在的市场碎片化构成风险，因为美国的改革与欧盟、英国和日本现有的半年报告规范 形成对比。 核心问题在于结构性因素。自20世纪90年代中期以来，美国上市公司的数量下降了约40%。这并非小幅 波动，而是监管过度扩张导致上市之路受阻的警示案例。 SEC主席保罗·阿特金斯将这一趋势直接归咎于繁琐且一刀切的信息披露要求，这些要求已成为企业， 尤其是规模较小、成立时间较短的企业上市的主要障碍。现行制度要求市值2.5亿美元的公司与市值是 其100倍的公司提交相同的信息披露，由此产生的合规成本和行政摩擦往往超过了其带来的收益。 规模较小的公司如何应对复杂的监管环境并进入公开市场？ 这就引出了投资的核心问题：美国证券交易委员会（SEC）的 ...

当今世界，关于美元的讨论已跳出经济学家与金融专家的圈层，普通民众也愈发关注这一全球货币霸主的地位动摇。美国政客频频将中国视作"头号敌人"， 妄图通过对抗维系金融霸权，却忽视了一个核心事实：真正威胁美元根基的，正是美国自身的短视与越界行为。 在巴蒂斯塔看来，靠恐惧维系的霸权注定脆弱。当SWIFT丧失中立性、沦为地缘政治工具，其在全球金融体系中的合法性便大幅削弱。全球贸易迫切需要一 种不受政治干预、不会随意"断网"的支付保障，而美国显然无法提供这种确定性，各国加速搭建替代支付网络，本质上是对美元信用破产的集体回应。 作为全球核心储备货币，美元的地位建立在"中立性"与"安全性"的隐性承诺之上，而美国早已突破这一底线。2022年，美国联合盟友冻结俄罗斯央行约3000 亿美元海外储备，这不仅是对俄罗斯的精准经济打击，更是对国际金融规则的公然践踏。这笔储备并非私人财富，而是俄罗斯凭借资源出口与劳动创造积累 的合法主权资产，依据传统金融契约精神，央行储备享有绝对主权豁免权，美西方的举动无疑沦为赤裸裸的"国家抢劫"，彻底击碎了各国对美元资产安全的 信任。 信任一旦崩塌便难以修复，各国为规避潜在风险，纷纷加速探索美元替代方案， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing a range-bound trading pattern against the US dollar (USD), influenced by commodity price fluctuations and changing market expectations regarding the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) monetary policy [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Performance - As of January 20, the AUD/USD exchange rate is at 0.6698, showing a slight decline of 0.16% from the previous trading day, with fluctuations between 0.6685 and 0.6702 [1]. - The AUD has been under pressure since reaching a high of 0.68 on January 7, currently trapped in a consolidation range of 0.6650 to 0.6750 [1]. - The recent price action reflects a balance of bullish and bearish forces, with the AUD showing signs of hesitation [1]. Group 2: Commodity Price Influence - The AUD's performance is significantly influenced by the divergent trends in commodity prices, particularly iron ore and copper [1]. - Iron ore prices remain above $130 per ton, supported by temporary demand from Chinese infrastructure projects, but are expected to decline by 4% by 2026 due to a sluggish real estate market in China [1]. - Conversely, copper prices are projected to rise by 1% by 2026, driven by demand from renewable energy technologies and AI infrastructure, providing some support for the AUD [1]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Expectations - Market expectations regarding RBA policy have shifted from a focus on rate hikes to anticipations of early rate cuts, influenced by recent inflation data [2]. - The probability of a rate hike in February has decreased from 36% to 22% following a lower-than-expected CPI increase of 3.4% year-on-year [2]. - Some institutions are betting on a rate cut cycle, with JPMorgan predicting potential cuts as early as mid-2026 if core inflation falls below 3% [2]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The short-term outlook for the AUD/USD shows increasing downward pressure, with technical indicators suggesting a bearish trend [2]. - Key resistance levels are identified at 0.6745 and 0.6768, while support levels are at 0.6665 and 0.6650, with a potential test of the 0.6610-0.6595 range if the 0.6650 support is breached [2]. Group 5: Institutional Perspectives - There is a notable divergence in institutional views on the AUD's trajectory, with some predicting short-term volatility and others maintaining a bullish outlook for the medium term [3]. - JPMorgan forecasts a trading range of 0.66-0.68 for the AUD in the short term, while Goldman Sachs is more optimistic, projecting a rise to 0.69 by the third quarter [3]. - The overall outlook for 2026 suggests a strengthening AUD, with a projected average exchange rate of 0.69, although falling iron ore prices may limit appreciation [3]. Group 6: Risk Factors - Key risk factors that could disrupt the current trading range include upcoming inflation data from the RBA, developments in China's real estate policies, and fluctuations in the USD index [3]. - Monitoring the 0.6650 support level is crucial for assessing the potential for further short-term adjustments in the AUD [3].

关键词阅读：金融气象AI模型 熵机 责任编辑：磐石 据介绍，"熵机"模型在金融领域具备广泛的应用前景。气象高敏感行业的上市公司可借助其预测进行气 候风险管理和市值维护；银行、保险等金融机构可将其应用于股权质押业务风险管控，并探索气候投融 资等创新业务模式；投资者可将其作为量化投资的辅助工具；学术界亦可通过模型输出，检验与完善资 产定价相关理论。 据中国气象官微，近日，我国首个金融气象AI模型"熵机"（stock）发布。"熵机"由复旦大学及国家气象 信息中心共同研发，旨在探索气象因子在金融资产定价中的作用，为风险管理与投资决策提供创新工 具。 ...

Report Summary 1. Overnight Market Trends - International oil prices rose collectively, with the US crude oil main contract up 0.15% at $59.43 per barrel and the Brent crude oil main contract up 0.08% at $64.18 per barrel [4]. - London base metals rose across the board, with LME tin up 3.87% at $49840.0 per ton, LME nickel up 3.23% at $18145.0 per ton, etc. [4]. - As of 23:00, most domestic futures main contracts fell. Coke, glass, etc. fell more than 2%, while palm oil and PVC rose nearly 1% [4]. - As of 2:30, the Shanghai gold main contract rose 1.35%, the Shanghai silver main contract rose 5.88%, and the SC crude oil main contract fell 0.52% [5]. 2. Important Information Macro Information - In 2025, China's GDP was 1401879 billion yuan, up 5.0% year - on - year. The added value of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries increased by 3.9%, 4.5%, and 5.4% respectively [8]. - The IMF raised China's economic growth rate forecast for 2025 by 0.2 percentage points to 5% and also raised the forecast for 2026. The world economy is expected to grow 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027 [8]. - As of January 19, 2026, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (Europe route) was 1954.19 points, down 0.1% from the previous period [9]. Energy and Chemical Futures - In December 2025, China's crude oil imports were 5597000 tons, up 17.4% year - on - year; refined oil imports were 399000 tons, up 21.1% year - on - year; and refined oil exports were 537000 tons, up 43.6% year - on - year [11]. - India's Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd is considering buying Venezuelan oil and stopping importing Russian oil [11]. Metal Futures - In December 2025, China's polysilicon imports were 1873 tons, down 42.8% year - on - year; alumina exports were 210000 tons, up 9.3% year - on - year [14]. - PT Vale Indonesia may face a shortage of mining production quota for its new smelter [14]. - In December 2025, China's primary aluminum output was 3870000 tons, up 3.0% year - on - year; ten non - ferrous metals output was 7210000 tons, up 4.9% year - on - year [14]. - From January 21, 2026, the daily price limit of lithium carbonate futures contracts will be adjusted to 11%, and the margin standards for speculative and hedging trades will be adjusted to 13% and 12% respectively [15][43]. - Chile's copper output is expected to peak at 6.06 million tons in 2033 and then slow down to 5.86 million tons in 2034 [16]. Black - series Futures - Yijinhuoluoqi Dongbo Coal Mine was ordered to suspend production for 2 days due to major safety hazards [19]. - From January 12 - 18, 2026, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 28977000 tons, a decrease of 1173000 tons from the previous period [19]. - In 2025, real estate development enterprises' funds in place decreased by 13.4% year - on - year, construction area decreased by 10.0% year - on - year, and new commercial housing sales area decreased by 8.7% year - on - year [20]. - In December 2025, China's crude steel output was 68.18 million tons, down 10.3% year - on - year; coal output was 437.03 million tons, down 1.0% year - on - year [20]. Agricultural Product Futures - The new China - Canada economic and trade agreement is a positive development for Canadian rapeseed growers, but key details need clarification [22]. - It is expected that the average price of palm oil in 2026 will be 4125 ringgit per ton, down 2.55% year - on - year; Malaysia's output will be 19.75 million tons, down 2.61% year - on - year; and Indonesia's output will reach a record 51.2 million tons, up 0.39% year - on - year [24]. - In 2025, China's total grain output was 714.88 million tons, up 1.2% year - on - year; pig, cattle, sheep, and poultry meat output was 100.72 million tons, up 4.2% year - on - year [24]. - In January, the arrival volume of imported soybeans decreased. The weekly soybean crushing volume of oil mills was below 2 million tons, and the monthly crushing volume is expected to be about 8 million tons [24]. - As of last Thursday, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil's 2025/26 season was 2%, slightly higher than 1.7% in the same period last year [25]. - It is expected that Brazil's soybean exports in 2026 will be 105 million tons, and the total supply will reach 183.79 million tons, up 5% year - on - year [25]. 3. Financial Market Financial - The Supreme People's Procuratorate deployed to safeguard economic and financial security and punish securities crimes [29]. - On Monday, the A - share market had a narrow - range oscillation, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.29% at 4114 points [29]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 1.05% to 26563.9 points [29]. - A total of 451 A - share listed companies disclosed their 2025 performance forecasts, with 156 pre - announcing good news [30]. - Insurance funds' investment preferences may affect the market style, and the AI and non - ferrous metal sectors have investment opportunities [32]. - Zhejiang Securities Regulatory Bureau fined and banned "Jinyongrong" from the securities market for market manipulation [32]. - A fund manager's different operations between personal and fund accounts have sparked controversy [32]. - Rumors about false accounts for Hong Kong stock IPO subscriptions are untrue [32]. - Yunbao Intelligence launched its A - share IPO process, aiming to be the first domestic DPU stock [33]. Industry - Five departments jointly deployed the construction of zero - carbon factories, aiming to cultivate them in multiple industries by 2027 and expand to traditional high - energy - consuming industries by 2030 [34]. - In December 2025, housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities generally declined month - on - month and the year - on - year decline widened [34]. - China successfully launched the 19th group of satellite Internet low - orbit satellites [35]. - Domestic refined oil prices are expected to rise on January 21, 2026 [36]. - Micron Technology warned of a shortage of memory chips due to the surging demand for high - end semiconductors in AI infrastructure [36]. - High - end spirits demand has shrunk, leading to inventory backlogs and production shutdowns in the industry [36]. Overseas - The IMF raised the global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 3.3% and also raised the forecasts for China, the US, the Eurozone, and Japan [37]. - The EU will hold an emergency summit to discuss Trump's tariff measures and consider counter - measures [37]. - Germany restarted electric vehicle purchase subsidies of 1500 - 6000 euros, open to all car manufacturers [38]. - Japanese Prime Minister Takamori Sanae will dissolve the House of Representatives on January 23, 2026 [38]. - Ueno Zoo in Tokyo will return the giant panda twins "Xiaoxiao" and "Leilei" to China [39]. International Stock Markets - European stock markets fell across the board, with the German DAX index down 1.34%, the French CAC40 index down 1.78%, and the UK FTSE 100 index down 0.39% [40]. - Asian stock markets had a mixed performance. The Japanese market had a "double - kill" of stocks and bonds, while the South Korean Composite Index hit a new high [40]. - Norway's central bank investment management company significantly reduced its holdings of London small and medium - cap stocks [40]. - US investor Elliott opposed Toyota Industries' privatization proposal [41]. Commodity - The price limit and margin standards of lithium carbonate futures contracts on the GZEX will be adjusted from January 21, 2026 [43]. - International oil prices rose, and London base metals also increased [43]. Bond - The domestic bond market was weak, with most treasury bond futures closing down [44]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 54 points to 6.9636 at 16:30 on Monday [45]. - The US dollar index fell 0.32% to 99.05, and non - US currencies mostly rose [47]. - Hedge funds increased their short positions on the yen before the Japanese election [47]. - JPMorgan Chase downgraded the ratings of emerging market currencies and the South African rand [47]. 4. Upcoming Events - There will be 358.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due in the Chinese central bank's open market at 09:20 [49]. - Press conferences will be held by the State Council Information Office at 10:00 and 15:00 [49]. - Executives from BlackRock, the EU Commission, the UK Treasury, Canada, etc. will speak at the World Economic Forum [49]. - The 40th AAAI Artificial Intelligence Conference and the 2026 Alibaba Cloud PolarDB Developer Conference will be held [49]. - Netflix and 3M will release their financial reports [49].

国际金价一夜冲破4690美元/盎司，国内金饰克价飙至1451元，一枚吊坠单日溢价近2万元；白银更凶猛，单日暴涨超5%，站上94.7美元，50天狂涨82%！金 银比价腰斩至13年最低，市场彻底沸腾。 当金银不再是保值符号， 此轮暴涨并非炒作，而是地缘冲突、美联储降息预期与工业需求三重风暴叠加：中东紧张、特朗普关税战推高避险情绪；光伏与新能源车疯狂"吃银"，全球 库存仅够支撑月余；各国央行连续18个月增持黄金，中国、印度大举扫货，伦敦现货逼空上演。 而成了心跳加速器， 理性，才是最后的避险资产。 消费端哀鸿遍野：婚庆"三金"成本翻倍，新人改租金饰；银饰价格翻番，网友悔叹"早知不扔旧镯子"。投资圈则冰火两重天——囤金者年赚百万，杠杆炒银 者一日亏47万，银行紧急抽贷警示风险。 机构分歧加剧：瑞银看高黄金至5000美元，高盛却预警白银或回调20%。专家疾呼：普通人勿追高，金饰选水贝加工，投资限配ETF，白银波动堪比过山 车，1980年暴跌80%的血泪史犹在眼前。 ...