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黄金、白银回升 要不要持仓过节?
Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao· 2026-02-09 18:50
国盛证券有色金属首席分析师张航对上海证券报记者表示,最新公布的1月美国ADP新增就业人数仅为 2.2万人,低于前值4.1万人,且远低于市场预期值。尽管同期制造业PMI回到52.6%的荣枯线上,但美国 就业市场依然偏弱,市场密切关注后续美国非农数据的发布。 此外,贵金属实物需求或依然强劲。各国央行持续在小规模购入黄金。根据央行2月7日发布的数据,截 至1月末,我国黄金储备达7419万盎司,环比增加4万盎司,实现连续第15个月增持黄金。同时,全球资 金配置白银的意愿也在回升,全球最大的白银ETF(SLV)在2月3日单日增持1000吨,为历史上第三大 单日增幅纪录,显示中长线资金对贵金属后市的积极预期。 尽管贵金属价格近日回升,但面对即将到来的春节假期,国内投资者的态度仍较为谨慎,都在琢磨同一 件事:要不要持仓过节? 张峻滔认为,目前金价仍处在上行试探区间,预计接近前高时将面临短期阻力。鉴于今年春节假期较 长,建议投资者可借当前反弹契机适度减仓,等待节后更明确的买入机会。 贵金属在"高台跳水"后逐渐回升,黄金重新收复5000美元/盎司关键关口。 截至北京时间2月9日19时30分许,伦敦现货黄金(下称"伦敦金")已回 ...
沪深北交易所优化再融资 创新企业获重点支持
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-02-09 18:14
登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 证券时报记者 吴少龙 张淑贤 2月9日,沪深北交易所宣布优化再融资一揽子措施。本次一揽子优化举措中,沪深北交易所聚焦影响再融资功能 充分发挥、各方反映集中的突出问题,优化再融资机制安排,打通卡点堵点,进一步提高再融资效率;坚持扶优 限劣、支持科技创新原则,加大对优质上市公司再融资的支持力度,引导资源向新质生产力领域集聚;坚持把防 风险、强监管摆在突出位置,既要"放得活"又要"管得好",着力构建活而有序的市场秩序;坚持稳中求进,区分不 同情形,稳步有序推进,成熟一项、推出一项。 主板科创企业迎政策红利 针对科创企业"轻资产、高研发、重投入"的发展特征,此次改革的核心抓手之一是将科创板、创业板试点成熟 的"轻资产、高研发投入"认定标准扩展至沪深主板,补齐主板科创企业的融资政策短板,回应市场长期以来的诉 求。 具体来看,本次优化举措基于沪深两市主板公司类型多元的实际发展现状,契合主板优质创新企业的资金需求特 点,增加主板上市公司"轻资产"认定标准为实物资产占总资产比重不高于20%,"高研发投入"认定标准为最近3年 平均研发投入占营业收入比例不低于15%,或者最近3年 ...
关于新增东吴证券股份有限公司为摩根强化回报债券型证券投资基金代销机构的公告
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-02-09 18:14
1、东吴证券股份有限公司 客服电话:95330 摩根基金管理(中国)有限公司已与东吴证券股份有限公司(以下简称"东吴证券")签订了基金销售代 理协议,现决定自本公告之日起,新增东吴证券为摩根强化回报债券型证券投资基金(A类份额代码: 372010;B类份额代码:372110)的代销机构。 投资人可通过东吴证券开展基金的申购、赎回、定期定额等相关业务。具体的业务流程、办理时间和办 理方式以东吴证券的规定为准。 有关摩根强化回报债券型证券投资基金(A类份额代码:372010;B类份额代码:372110)销售的具体 事宜请仔细阅读本基金的招募说明书、基金产品资料概要及基金合同等相关法律文件。 投资者可通过以下途径咨询有关详情: 公司网址:am.jpmorgan.com/cn 特此公告。 摩根基金管理(中国)有限公司 二○二六年二月十日 公司网址:www.dwzq.com.cn 2、摩根基金管理(中国)有限公司 客服电话:400-889-4888 ...
深圳市楠菲微电子股份有限公司启动上市辅导
Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang· 2026-02-09 16:46
Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Shenzhen Nanfei Microelectronics Co., Ltd. has filed for counseling registration with the Shenzhen Securities Regulatory Bureau on February 10, 2026, with CITIC Securities as the counseling institution [1] Group 2 - The company is preparing for a potential public offering or other capital market activities, indicating growth and expansion plans [1] - The involvement of CITIC Securities suggests a strategic partnership that may enhance the company's market positioning and investor confidence [1] - This move reflects the ongoing trend of technology companies in China seeking to access public capital markets for funding and development [1]
老美也是短久期
小熊跑的快· 2026-02-09 16:22
原来根子在这里。 2Y 美国国债(2YRNOTE) W 02-09 11:14:26 3.479 最高 3.516 52周最高 4.426 昨收 3.491 今开 3.487 最低 3.475 52周最低 3.376 -1.25bp -0.36% 3.523 10日平均 3.537 20日平均 3.564 5日平均 60日平均 3.527 120日平均 3.540 250日平均 3.681 日K 分时 F (0) 叠加 设均线 EXPMA15:3.533↓ 50:3.708↓ 120:3.836↓ 268:3.371↑ 0:0 445.268 3.914 3.3. 2.383 2025-07-04 2026-02-09 2023-10-06 24-04-12 美股也交易的短久期,谁涨价 涨谁! 半导体也涨的光纤 要贴现估值的长久期品类 ,最近也很惨。 我就说moltbot 等等 各种亮眼应用都没让 csp 大模型厂起来。 长期国债收益率根本没下来 ...
扶优、扶科!三大交易所同日宣布
Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao· 2026-02-09 16:11
在更好适应科创企业再融资需求方面,沪深交易所优化再融资间隔期要求,按照未盈利标准上市且尚未 盈利的科技型上市公司再融资,前次募集资金基本使用完毕或未改变募集资金投向的,融资间隔期调整 为不少于6个月。沪深北交易所存在破发情形的上市公司,可以通过定增、发行可转债等方式合理融 资,募集资金需投向主营业务。 此外,沪深交易所还同步就主板上市公司"轻资产、高研发投入"认定标准公开征求意见,拟允许符合条 件的上市公司将募集资金补流超过30%的部分,用于与主营业务相关的研发投入。 至于相关认定标准,沪深交易所明确,主板上市公司"轻资产"认定标准为实物资产占总资产比重不高于 20%;"高研发投入"认定标准为最近三年平均研发投入占营业收入比例不低于15%,或者最近三年累计 研发投入不低于3亿元且最近三年平均研发投入占营业收入比例不低于5%。 在高研发投入标准上,科创板与主板仍保有区分,板块上市公司同时符合下列指标的,可以认定为具有 高研发投入特点:最近三年平均研发投入占营业收入比例不低于15%或者最近三年累计研发投入不低于 3亿元;最近一年研发人员占当年员工总数的比例不低于10%。 此外,综合考虑全市场最近三年平均研发投入占 ...
1月份金融数据前瞻:新增人民币贷款、社融环比或多增
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2026-02-09 16:06
Group 1 - The financial data for January is expected to show a significant increase in new RMB loans and social financing compared to December, with estimates suggesting new loans could reach 5 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 4 trillion yuan month-on-month, but a decrease of about 100 billion yuan year-on-year [1] - Analysts predict that the new social financing in January will be around 7 trillion yuan, with bond financing expected to be a major support factor, indicating a stable overall performance in credit and social financing [2] - The growth rates of various loan balances, social financing, and M2 (broad money) are anticipated to slightly decline, yet remain significantly above the nominal GDP growth rate, reflecting a continued supportive monetary policy stance [2] Group 2 - The chief economist at Zheshang Securities forecasts a potential reduction in reserve requirement ratios by 25 to 50 basis points and a 10 basis point interest rate cut in 2026, alongside ongoing structural monetary policy tools aimed at supporting sectors like technology innovation and small to medium enterprises [2]
高市早苗压倒性胜选:日本政治经济全面转向 股市大涨背后逻辑深度拆解
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-02-09 15:43
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the overwhelming election victory of Kishi Sanae and the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will reshape Japan's domestic and foreign policies, influence the Asian geopolitical landscape, and drive the Japanese stock market to historical highs [2] - The LDP's victory allows for constitutional amendments, solidifying Kishi's leadership and enabling the implementation of comprehensive economic, military, and diplomatic strategies [2][3] - Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities has raised its forecast for the Japanese stock market, predicting a 2,450-point increase in the Tokyo Stock Exchange index by the end of 2026, driven by fiscal expansion, defense investment, and corporate profitability [2][5] Group 2 - Kishi's foreign policy focuses on strengthening the Japan-U.S. alliance while maintaining trade and strategic partnerships with Europe and India, which has garnered support from the business community and conservatives [3] - Domestically, Kishi's political agenda resonates with the public's desire for economic improvement and national strength, leading to high approval ratings and electoral success [4] - Kishi's administration is implementing expansionary fiscal policies that align with the Bank of Japan's monetary policies, creating a "loose fiscal + stable monetary" environment that supports market liquidity and lowers financing costs for businesses [5] Group 3 - The combination of fiscal spending and monetary policy is expected to create a positive feedback loop for the Japanese economy and stock market, with increased government spending boosting infrastructure, defense, and consumer sectors [5] - The forecast of 4,250 points for the stock market is based on rational assessments of policy implementation, profit improvement, and capital inflow, with high liquidity stocks and defense-related sectors showing significant potential for excess returns [5] - While acknowledging the short-term benefits of Kishi's policies, there are concerns about the long-term risks associated with extreme right-wing tendencies and aggressive military expansion, which could undermine regional economic cooperation [6]
H股刚上市,这家期货公司大举“出海”
Zhong Guo Ji Jin Bao· 2026-02-09 15:31
刚刚完成H股上市的南华期货,要将全部12.03亿港元的IPO募资用于境外子公司横华国际的增资,增资后,南华期货对横华国际的出 资金额将达到20.29亿港元。横华国际是南华期货在境外从事期货、证券等金融服务的平台。 12亿港元全部增资境外子公司 【导读】南华期货(603093)H股12亿港元募资全部增资境外子公司横华国际 期货公司也在积极"出海"。 南华期货表示,本次交易实施尚需履行中国行政机关关于资金出境及对外投资的相关批准、备案手续。 2月9日晚间,南华期货披露,拟对境外全资子公司横华国际金融股份有限公司(以下简称横华国际)进行增资,增资金额为12.03亿 港元,按中国人民银行公布的2026年2月6日人民币汇率中间价换算,约合人民币10.72亿元。 南华期货也提示,横华国际业务受宏观经济环境、国际政治环境、行业环境、企业自身经营管理等多方面影响,公司对横华国际增资 所产生的效益,存在不确定性。公司与横华国际将严格遵循相关监管规定,加强内控管理工作。 南华期货对横华国际的增资资金,来自H股IPO募资。南华期货股份刚于2025年12月在H股上市,募资净额正是12.03亿港元。在南华 期货H股的招股书中,南华期货 ...
走在债市曲线之前系列报告(十五):从曲线与成交看地方债投资价值(下)
Changjiang Securities· 2026-02-09 15:06
Group 1: Report Highlights - The widening spread between special-purpose bonds and general bonds was mainly driven by supply shocks and the differentiated risk weights of commercial banks. The relative relationship of spreads between 20Y and 30Y local government bonds was driven by changes in Treasury yields. There were regional differentiations in the primary spread levels of local government bonds, and the difference between primary and secondary spreads verified the differences in the marketization degree of issuance in each region. The liquidity level of local government bonds affected the historical spread changes. There were certain differences in the number of market quotes from brokers in each region, reflecting the differences in liquidity. Moreover, there were regular differentiations in the trading preferences of each province and various institutional entities [3]. Group 2: Core Views - The report systematically analyzed the investment value of local government bonds from two core dimensions: the changes in local government bond spreads and their influencing factors, and the trading and buying situations in the local government bond market. It provided in - depth analyses of the driving factors behind the widening of the spread between special - purpose bonds and general bonds from late 2024 to early 2025 and the change in the relative relationship between 20Y and 30Y local government bonds around Q4 2024. It also focused on the regional differentiations in primary and secondary spreads and their causes, and summarized the regular characteristics in trading and net - buying preferences in the market [78]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Exploration of Factors Affecting Local Government Bond Spreads 1.1 Widening of Spread between Special - Purpose Bonds and General Bonds - From 2020 to early 2024, the spread between special - purpose bonds and general bonds remained stable within the range of - 4 to 4bp. However, from late 2024 to early 2025, the spread widened significantly, reaching a peak of 8bp in early May 2025 and then gradually falling back to around 2bp. The main reasons were the concentrated supply shock of special - purpose bonds and the differentiated risk weights of commercial banks. In November and December 2024, over 2 trillion yuan of special - purpose bonds were issued, which exceeded the market demand and broke the supply - demand balance. The "Commercial Bank Capital Management Measures" implemented on January 1, 2024, differentiated the risk exposure weights of general bonds (10%) and special - purpose bonds (20%), which increased the capital occupation cost of commercial banks for special - purpose bonds and reduced their allocation demand [14][18]. 1.2 Changes in Spreads of 20Y and 30Y Local Government Bonds - The spread between 20Y and 30Y local government bonds changed around Q4 2024, with the spread of 30Y local government bonds minus that of 20Y local government bonds turning from negative to positive. This change was mainly due to the change in the relative level of 20Y and 30Y Treasury yields, as the change point of Treasury yields coincided with that of local government bond spreads [32]. 1.3 Difference between Primary and Secondary Spreads - From 2015 - 2025, the primary spreads of local government bonds showed significant regional differentiations and term - related characteristics. Regionally, the primary spreads were inversely related to the regional economic development level, with higher spreads in the central, western, and northeastern regions. In terms of term, the primary spread of 1Y local government bonds was relatively low, while those of 2 - 10Y bonds were generally over 20bp, and the spread of 5Y bonds was the highest at 23.21bp. The spreads of 15 - 30Y long - term local government bonds fluctuated around 18bp. The difference between primary and secondary spreads reflected the regional differentiations in the marketization degree of local government bond issuance. Some provinces had a small difference between primary and secondary spreads, while in some areas such as Ningbo, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, the non - marketization of issuance was more serious [35][40]. 1.4 Factors Affecting Spreads - The offensive and defensive characteristics of local government bonds changed significantly around August 2023. Before August 2023, local government bonds had stronger defensive attributes than Treasury bonds, and their spread changes were mainly passive. After August 2023, their offensive attributes became prominent, and the active widening and narrowing of spreads were obvious. The main reasons were the change in the participation of trading desks and the impact of policies on the supply term structure of local government bonds. The increase in the supply of special - purpose bonds also led to the widening of spreads in some stages [45][49][52]. 2. Analysis of Local Government Bond Trading and Buying 2.1 Bid/Ofr Quote Quantity and Spread - According to the sampling data of 10Y new local government bonds issued after August 8, 2025, in the broker market, there were significant differences in the liquidity of local government bonds in each region. Some regions had high broker - market activity, with sufficient bid and ofr quotes and active trading, while some regions had poor liquidity. The average bid - ofr difference of the sampled provinces was about 1.68bp, and the ChinaBond valuation price was generally 1 - 2bp higher than the ofr price [58]. 2.2 Regional Trading Patterns - By comparing the trading volume and trading value of local government bonds in 2024 and 2025, it was found that some regions had obvious trading preferences for certain - term local government bonds. For example, 1 - 3Y bonds were more actively traded in Zhejiang, 5 - 7Y bonds were more popular in Shenzhen, Chongqing, and Jiangsu, and long - term bonds with a term of over 20Y were actively traded in Fujian, Shandong, and Sichuan. The weighted average trading terms calculated by trading volume and trading value were consistent with the above - mentioned trading preferences [63]. 2.3 Net Buying - Based on the data from 2021 - 2025, different institutional entities had different net - buying preferences for local government bonds of different terms. Large - scale banks mainly focused on local government bonds with a term of less than seven years, rural commercial banks had a more diverse range of term preferences, city commercial banks' net - buying characteristics were similar to those of rural commercial banks, securities firms' self - operation mainly concentrated on 1 - 5Y local government bonds, funds' net - buying terms were more dispersed, and insurance companies showed an increasing preference for long - term local government bonds and were the largest net - buying entities for 15 - 30Y local government bonds [68]. 2.4 Cross - Market Trading Comparison - After the optimization of the local government bond transfer - custody business, it became more convenient to transfer local government bonds between the inter - bank market and the exchange market. The inter - bank market had the largest trading volume of local government bonds, and the absolute values of the differences between the trading prices in the inter - bank and broker markets and the ChinaBond valuation were smaller. The Shanghai Stock Exchange had a larger trading volume than the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, with higher trading yields [73][76].