Group 1: Loan and Social Financing Trends - The median forecast for new RMB loans in December 2025 is 0.77 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 0.22 trillion yuan compared to 0.99 trillion yuan in December 2024 [2] - The median forecast for new social financing in December 2025 is 1.74 trillion yuan, down 1.12 trillion yuan from 2.86 trillion yuan in December 2024 [6][9] - High-frequency data indicates that the manufacturing and construction PMIs in December are above the threshold, recorded at 50.1% and 52.8% respectively, suggesting potential support for corporate loans [4] Group 2: Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) - The CPI for December 2025 increased by 0.8% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations, while the PPI decreased by 1.9%, showing a smaller decline than anticipated [12][16] - Food prices rose by 1.1%, while non-food prices increased by 0.8%, contributing to the overall CPI increase [15] - The PPI decline was less severe than in previous months, indicating a potential stabilization in industrial prices [16][17] Group 3: Economic and Financial Conditions - The M1 growth rate is expected to continue its downward trend, while M2 growth is projected to slightly decline, leading to an expansion of the M2-M1 gap [10][11] - The pressure on local finances due to hidden debt becoming visible is expected to persist, affecting credit availability [5] - The overall economic environment remains cautious, with businesses likely to prioritize efficiency in capital usage amid uneven recovery in profits and cash flows [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December, the economic operation was in the traditional off - season, but factors such as the late Spring Festival and the extended stocking cycle might boost industrial production. The export growth rate might decline slightly but still be better than that in October. The GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter was expected to reach around 4.5%, and the whole - year GDP was likely to achieve 5% and end smoothly [3][6]. - For the bond market, there was little suspense about the economic data in December. The market mainly focused on the verification of the "good start" of the economy at the beginning of the year. With the concentrated implementation of macro - policies to stabilize growth at the end of the year, the "two new" policies were issued one week earlier than in 2025, and the support amount for the early - batch "two important" and central budget - investment plan projects also increased compared with the previous year. January 2026 was expected to be the window for the concentrated effect of the "good start" policies, and high - frequency verification during the data "vacuum period" should be concerned [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Inflation - CPI: It was expected that the CPI in December would rise to around 0.9% year - on - year. Fruit and vegetable prices supported the food price to rise above the seasonal level, and the non - food item was in line with the seasonality. The CPI was expected to increase by about 0.2% month - on - month [3][6][8]. - PPI: It was predicted that the PPI in December would rise to around - 1.9% year - on - year. The non - ferrous industry faced imported inflation pressure, and the prices of domestic bulk commodities such as steel and PTA improved. The PPI was expected to increase by about 0.2% month - on - month [3][6][14]. 3.2 Export - The export growth rate was expected to be around 5.0% in December. The export momentum in December was not weak, although the year - on - year growth rate of container throughput at ports was lower than that in November but better than that in October. The import was expected to increase by around 1.5% year - on - year, with the price support continuing to expand [3][21]. 3.3 Industrial The industrial growth rate in December was expected to be around 5.1%. The PMI in December returned above the boom - bust line, and the production sub - item further expanded. The late Spring Festival in 2026 extended the stocking cycle, which had a certain driving effect on production [3][6][24]. 3.4 Investment - The cumulative growth rate of fixed - asset investment from January to December was expected to be around - 3.0%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) was about - 1.5%, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate investment was about - 16.7%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of manufacturing investment was about + 1.2% [3][6][33]. 3.5 Social Retail The year - on - year growth rate of social retail in December was expected to be around 1.0%. As the national subsidy funds were approaching the end, the marginal boost to automobile consumption from the subsidy decline weakened. The year - on - year decline in gasoline prices widened, and the drag on social retail from petroleum product consumption continued to increase [3][6][36]. 3.6 Financial Data - In December, the bill interest rate declined against the trend, reflecting the weak credit impulse at the end of the year. The new credit in December was expected to be about 80 billion yuan, slightly lower than the level of 99 billion yuan in the same period of the previous year. The new social financing was about 1.7 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 58.85 billion yuan [3][6][45]. - The M2 growth rate was expected to remain around 8.0%. The new deposits were close to the seasonal level. From the asset side, the year - on - year growth rate of the credit balance might slightly decline to 6.3%, and the social financing growth rate might decline to around 8.4% affected by the high base of government bonds. From the liability side, the M2 in December might increase by 1.5 trillion yuan [3][48].

❖ 2026 年社融、M2 的预测? 参考"社会融资规模、货币供应量增长与名义经济增速基本匹配"，若是名义 GDP4.5%附近，考虑到"基本匹配"原则下"社融-名义 GDP 同比"基本 在 3%附近，预计社会融资增速在 7.5%附近；参考"保持社会融资规模、货 币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配"，若是经济增速预期 目标仍在 5%附近，价格预期目标在 2%附近，和 2025 年基本持平，考虑到 2025 年年度社融增速或在 8.1%附近，以及央行"未来金融总量的增速下降 是自然的"，因此 2026 年社融增速会低于 8.1%，但是高于 7%；我们预测 2026 年社融增速 7.6%，对应 2026 年社融新增 33.5 万亿元附近。 M2 部分，考虑到 2026 年可能是信贷占比弱，直接融资占比偏高的社会融资 格局，贷款派生存款能力下降，因此（社融-M2）剪刀差将较当前继续走扩， 参照往年或在 0.5%附近，对标前期的 2026 年社融预测值，预计 2026 年 M2 增速或在 7.1%附近。 ❖ 2026 年社融分项的预测？ 证券研究报告 固收专题报告 / 2025.12.26 核心观点 ❖ ...

Core Insights - The macroeconomic data for October indicates a short-term increase in economic downward pressure, with adjustments in policies focusing on stimulating domestic demand and repairing industrial product prices [1] CPI - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose from -0.3% to 0.2% year-on-year, marking a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month [4] - The month-on-month CPI increased by 0.2%, influenced by rising prices of fruits and vegetables, with food prices showing a higher growth rate compared to historical values [4] PPI - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, but saw a month-on-month increase for the first time this year, supported mainly by the mining industry [7] - Prices for production materials rose by 0.1%, with mining prices increasing by 1% [7] PMI - The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 49% from 49.8%, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity [10] - The decline in PMI is attributed to high inventory levels, a significant drop in new export orders, and weakened investment demand due to debt repayment acceleration [10] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment (FAI) decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, with construction and real estate investments showing significant declines [14] - Factors contributing to the low performance in infrastructure include accelerated debt repayment, insufficient project reserves, and seasonal construction slowdowns [14] Credit - New credit issuance in October was 220 billion yuan, a decrease of 280 billion yuan compared to the previous year [17] - The total social financing (TSF) increased by 815 billion yuan, but the growth rate has slowed down [17] M2 - The M2 money supply grew by 8.2% year-on-year, a slight decrease from the previous month's growth rate of 8.4% [21] - The decline in M2 growth is influenced by a slowdown in social financing and an increase in fiscal deposits [21]

Group 1 - The report highlights a marginal improvement in financing conditions and a stable, accommodative monetary environment as of June 2025 [2][3] - In June 2025, new RMB loans amounted to 2.24 trillion yuan, significantly higher than May's 0.62 trillion yuan, while new social financing reached 4.20 trillion yuan compared to 2.29 trillion yuan in May [3] - The year-on-year growth rate of social financing was 8.9% in June, slightly up from 8.7% in May, and M2 growth was 8.3%, up from 7.9% in the previous month [3] Group 2 - Government bonds continued to support the growth rate of social financing in June, with net financing of government bonds reaching 1.41 trillion yuan, although slightly down from 1.49 trillion yuan in May [3][5] - The demand for credit from the real economy remains weak, indicating that the effects of a loose monetary policy may take time to materialize [3] - The report notes that while corporate short-term loans showed seasonal improvement, medium to long-term loans remained low, suggesting weak investment intentions among enterprises [3] Group 3 - The report indicates that the growth rates of M1 and M2 have both increased, with the M1-M2 spread narrowing, which may reflect a marginal improvement in economic activity [3][34] - The adjustment in the bond market is primarily driven by risk appetite and asset pricing effects, with expectations that the adjustment period will be limited in time and space [3] - The report anticipates that the probability of continued tight funding conditions in July is low, supported by the central bank's clear stance on maintaining a moderately accommodative monetary policy [3]

Group 1 - The financial data for June is expected to show positive changes due to the implementation of financial support measures in May, with an anticipated increase in new RMB loans and social financing compared to previous months [1][2] - In May, new RMB loans amounted to 0.62 trillion yuan, while new social financing reached 2.29 trillion yuan [1] - Analysts predict that new RMB loans in June will be around 2.1 trillion yuan, showing a significant seasonal increase compared to May, while year-on-year figures are expected to remain stable [1][2] Group 2 - The expectation for June's new social financing is approximately 4 trillion yuan, which will also reflect a seasonal increase and a year-on-year rise [2][3] - Government bond financing is expected to be a major contributor to the increase in new social financing, with net financing expected to rise by about 700 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [2] - The People's Bank of China is anticipated to implement further monetary easing measures, including potential interest rate cuts, to support economic growth and stabilize prices [3]