Core Insights - The aquaculture sector experienced a decline of 0.6% on October 15, with Xiaoming Co. leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3912.21, up 1.22%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13118.75, up 1.73% [1] Aquaculture Sector Performance - Notable gainers in the aquaculture sector included Huaying Agriculture (+2.11%), Fucheng Co. (+1.42%), and Tianyu Bio (+1.03%) [1] - Xiaoming Co. saw the largest decline at -1.75%, followed by Lihua Co. (-1.12%) and Zhengbang Technology (-1.00%) [2] Trading Volume and Capital Flow - The aquaculture sector had a net outflow of 124 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 149 million yuan [2] - Conversely, speculative funds recorded a net inflow of 272 million yuan [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Shengnong Development had a net inflow of 13.21 million yuan from institutional investors, while it faced a net outflow of 26.16 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Tianbang Food and Fucheng Co. also saw positive net inflows from institutional investors, with 10.33 million yuan and 8.60 million yuan respectively [3]

Core Insights - The aquaculture sector saw a rise of 0.66% on October 14, with Shennong Group leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3865.23, down 0.62%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12895.11, down 2.54% [1] Aquaculture Sector Performance - Shennong Group (605296) closed at 31.39, up 2.51% with a trading volume of 58,200 shares and a turnover of 183 million [1] - Other notable performers included: - Luoniushan (000735) at 6.58, up 1.70% with a turnover of 319 million [1] - Xiantan Co. (002746) at 6.25, up 1.63% with a turnover of 111 million [1] - Muyuan Foods (002714) at 53.70, up 1.13% with a turnover of 3.169 billion [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The aquaculture sector experienced a net inflow of 64.59 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 71.36 million [2] - Notable capital flows included: - Muyuan Foods saw a net inflow of 89.62 million from institutional investors [3] - Luoniushan had a net inflow of 33.35 million from institutional investors [3] - Shennong Group experienced a net inflow of 29.15 million from institutional investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in both sales volume and revenue for pigs and chickens in September 2025, indicating challenges in the livestock market [1] Summary by Category Pig Sales - In September 2025, the company sold 202,331 pigs, including 4,595 piglets, representing a month-over-month decrease of 1.34% and a year-over-year decrease of 3.34% [1] - The sales revenue from pig sales was 31,869.24 million yuan, showing a month-over-month decline of 5.63% and a year-over-year decline of 24.91% [1] - The average selling price for commercial pigs was 12.98 yuan per kilogram, which decreased by 4.49% compared to August 2025 [1] Chicken Sales - The company sold 843,800 chickens in September 2025, reflecting a month-over-month increase of 3.54% but a significant year-over-year decrease of 62.62% [1] - The sales revenue from chicken sales was 1,542.94 million yuan, with a month-over-month increase of 2.86% and a year-over-year decrease of 13.45% [1] - The year-over-year decline in chicken sales volume was primarily attributed to a reduction in the number of chickens being marketed [1]

Core Viewpoint - The livestock industry in Gansu's Linxia Prefecture is both a traditional "ancestral industry" and a newly revitalized "new track," showcasing a blend of historical significance and modern advancements in farming practices [1][6]. Group 1: Traditional Livestock Industry - The breeding of cattle and sheep has been a longstanding "ancestral industry" in Linxia, with the saying "no cattle and sheep, no family" highlighting their importance in local livelihoods [2][4]. - The "Dongxiang Tribute Sheep" from Dongxiang County has become a regional public brand with a brand value exceeding 6.3 billion yuan, reflecting the historical significance and economic potential of local livestock [4]. - Dongxiang County transitioned from scattered breeding to large-scale operations, implementing a "task reward system" that links subsidies to livestock output, thus encouraging villagers to engage in breeding [4][5]. - Over 71% of households in Guanghe County are involved in livestock farming, with a robust system comprising 35,000 farming households and 636 cooperative farms, making it a key meat production base in Northwest China [4][5]. Group 2: Modernization and New Opportunities - Recent years have seen the rise of new sectors such as egg-laying hens and smart aquaculture, leveraging technology and policy support to create new growth points in the livestock industry [6][8]. - The Zhongbo Breeding Farm in Linxia County exemplifies modern egg production, achieving an annual output value exceeding 80 million yuan through automation and traceability systems [6][8]. - The smart aquaculture industry park in Yongjing County features advanced systems for breeding salmon and recycling water, significantly enhancing water resource utilization and filling a gap in high-end aquaculture [8]. - The integration of traditional and modern practices has led to a new development pattern in the livestock industry, where "ancestral" and "new" industries coexist and thrive together [8].

Core Points - The company reported its main operational data for the pig farming business in September 2025, highlighting sales figures and revenue changes compared to previous periods [1] - The company sold 28,600 pigs in September 2025, generating revenue of 32.76 million yuan, with month-on-month changes of 10.33% and 9.77%, respectively [1] - Year-on-year comparisons show a 38.73% increase in sales volume but a 36.47% decrease in revenue [1] - Cumulatively, from January to September 2025, the company sold 276,000 pigs, a year-on-year increase of 19.64%, while total revenue reached 395.16 million yuan, reflecting a 4.59% year-on-year decline [1] - As of the end of September 2025, the company had a pig inventory of 179,800, which is a 12.69% increase year-on-year but a 0.68% decrease month-on-month [1] Summary of Monthly Operational Data - The monthly operational data is summarized, indicating potential rounding differences in the figures presented [2] Special Notes - The operational data provided is unaudited and may differ from figures disclosed in regular reports, serving only as interim data for investor reference [3] - The company cautions that future sales volumes and revenues may experience monthly fluctuations due to significant market price volatility and changes in the company's breeding schedule [3]

证券之星消息，10月13日养殖业板块较上一交易日下跌0.35%，圣农发展领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3889.5，下跌0.19%。深证成指报收于13231.47，下跌0.93%。养殖业板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300967 | 晓鸣股份 | 22.79 | 1.60% | 11.41万 | 2.62亿 | | 603717 | 天域生物 | 9.10 | 1.22% | 15.25万 | 1.36亿 | | 002982 | 湘佳股份 | 14.84 | 1.02% | 3.99万 | 5897.35万 | | 300761 | 立华股份 | 23.16 | 0.92% | - 16.61万 | 3.85亿 | | 000048 | 京基智农 | 16.87 | 0.24% | 26.86万 | 4.51亿 | | 300498 | 温氏股份 | 18.86 | 0.11% | 60.92万 | 11.47亿 | | 301116 | 益客食品 | 10 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q4 2025, the price of soybean meal is expected to stop falling, stabilize, and rebound due to weather speculation in Brazil. However, considering the weak La Nina in winter, the January contract of soybean meal is unlikely to show a bullish trend. There is also a risk of decline if there is a Sino - US trade agreement. Short - term phased trading is recommended, and long - position operations require careful position and risk management [5][7][109]. - Rapeseed meal has been mainly following the trend of soybean meal due to high inventory pressure. There may be opportunities to go long on far - month rapeseed meal contracts considering the low inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed meal in domestic coastal crushing plants and the stagnant China - Canada trade. Attention should be paid to the subsequent development of China - Canada trade, as an improvement in the relationship would be unfavorable for far - month contracts of rapeseed products [9][112]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Review of the Third - Quarter Market of Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Soybean Meal**: In Q3, the price of domestic soybean meal first rose and then fell. It reached a new high for the year in mid - August due to factors such as the Sino - US trade tariff increase, weather premium during the US soybean planting period, the anti - dumping preliminary ruling on Canadian rapeseed by China, and the significant reduction in the US soybean planting area in the USDA report. Subsequently, the price declined due to good weather for US soybean planting, high port inventory of rapeseed meal in China, and other factors [15]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: In Q3, the price of rapeseed meal first increased and then decreased. It reached a new high for the year in mid - August after China announced a deposit system for Canadian rapeseed. Subsequently, high port inventory of imported granular rapeseed meal, concerns about the improvement of China - Canada trade tariffs, and the resumption of China - Australia rapeseed trade suppressed the price [16]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Supply and Demand Situation of the International Soybean Market - **Global Climate**: There is a 71% probability of La Nina occurring from October to December 2025, which may continue until February 2026, with a probability dropping to 54% [21]. - **Global Soybean Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio**: The global soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio is expected to decline. As of the September USDA report, it was 0.29, lower than last year's 0.3 but still above the median of the past decade. There are uncertainties in the future inventory - to - consumption ratio, especially if the Sino - US negotiation remains unresolved, the inventory - to - consumption ratio of Brazilian soybeans may improve significantly [24]. - **US Soybeans**: The planting area of US soybeans decreased, but the yield is expected to be high. The USDA adjusted the planting area and yield estimates, and as of September 28, 2025, the soybean harvest rate was 19%, the excellent - good rate was 62%, and the defoliation rate was 79% [28]. - **US Biodiesel**: In August, the EPA's handling of the backlog of small refinery exemption applications was positive for market confidence. However, in September, differences over the exemption issue led to a delay in the plan, increasing market uncertainty [29][30]. - **Brazilian Soybeans**: The 2025/26 production is expected to increase slightly year - on - year. The planting started in mid - September, but there is a risk of insufficient rainfall in the southern region. As of September 27, the sowing rate was 3.5%. The export volume in September was expected to be 675 tons, and the export volume of soybean meal was expected to be 637 tons [33][34][35]. - **Argentine Soybeans**: The 2025/26 production is expected to decrease slightly. The planting area is expected to decline by 4.3% to 17.6 million hectares, and the production is expected to be 47 million tons. The government temporarily removed export taxes on soybeans and related products from September 22 to October 31 or until the export volume reached $7 billion [40][43]. - **Global Rapeseed**: The global rapeseed production has recovered, with an output of 90.96 million tons in 2025, higher than last year's 85.73 million tons. Canada's rapeseed production is also expected to increase, reaching 20 million tons [47]. - **China's Anti - Dumping Investigation on Canadian Rapeseed**: China's Ministry of Commerce imposed a 75.8% deposit on Canadian rapeseed imports starting from August 14, 2025, and extended the investigation period to March 9, 2026, due to the complexity of the case [49][50]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Supply Situation of the Domestic Oilseed Market - **Soybean Imports**: In August 2025, China imported 12.279 million tons of soybeans, a year - on - year increase of 1.11%. From January to August, the cumulative import volume was 73.312 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4%. The main sources of imports were Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and the US [56]. - **Soybean and Soybean Meal Inventory and Crushing**: As of September 26, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 9.385 million tons, and the inventory of 125 oil mills was 7.1991 million tons. The soybean meal inventory of 125 oil mills was 1.1892 million tons. In September, the national soybean crushing volume was 9.9354 million tons [58][60][62]. - **Soybean and Soybean Meal Supply from October to December**: From October to December, the soybean import supply is expected to be sufficient, and the supply of soybean meal in Q4 is also expected to be good [64]. - **Soybean Meal Basis and Spread**: In Q3, the soybean meal basis rebounded from a low level but remained in a negative state. As of October 9, the basis for the January and May contracts was - 39 yuan/ton and 145 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 1 spread of soybean meal was 184 yuan/ton as of October 9 [68][71]. - **Rapeseed Market Supply**: In August 2025, the rapeseed import volume was 246,600 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to August was 2.3306 million tons. As of October 3, the coastal oil mill rapeseed inventory was 6,000 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 26,800 tons. The basis of rapeseed meal in East China was 25 yuan/ton as of October 9 [74][78][86]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Price Difference**: In Q3, the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures was relatively stable, while the spot price difference rebounded. As of October 9, the futures price difference was 504 yuan/ton, and the spot price difference was 440 yuan/ton [89]. 3.4 Chapter 4: Domestic Downstream Livestock and Poultry Market - **National Feed Production**: In August 2025, the national industrial feed production was 29.36 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. From January to August, the cumulative production was 216.18 million tons, higher than the same period last year [90][92]. - **Pig Market**: As of the end of June 2025, the national pig inventory was 424.47 million heads. In August, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.38 million heads. The piglet sales volume in August was 547,100 heads. The pig farming profit declined in Q3 [95][97][99]. - **Egg and Broiler Chicken Farming**: The egg - laying hen farming profit decreased significantly after the festival, with a profit of - 4.94 yuan/feather as of October 9. The broiler chicken farming profit fluctuated greatly in Q3, with a profit of - 1.55 yuan/feather as of October 10. The inventory of laying hens and broiler chickens was at a relatively high level, indicating optimistic feed demand [102][103][105]. - **Meat Duck Inventory**: As of October 3, the national meat duck parent - stock inventory was 249,000 sets, and the daily average hatching volume of commercial - generation meat ducks was 9.3 million feathers [108]. 3.5 Chapter 5: Price Outlook for the Double - Meal Market - **Soybean Meal Market**: Supply is affected by the harvest of US soybeans, Sino - US trade relations, and weather in Brazil. Domestic supply is sufficient, and the January contract is under pressure. Consumption is expected to be acceptable in Q4 but weaker than in the first half of the year. Overall, the price may stop falling and rebound, but there are risks [5][109]. - **Rapeseed Meal Market**: International supply is affected by the harvest of Canadian rapeseed and the opening of Australian rapeseed imports. Domestic supply is affected by inventory and China - Canada trade. Downstream consumption is in the off - season in Q4. It mainly follows the trend of soybean meal, and attention should be paid to China - Canada trade relations [9][112].

中美博弈加剧，种植产业链会重演 4.7 行情吗？ 20251012 摘要 中美农副产品贸易额巨大，2024 年约为 400 亿美元，中国是美国农产 品的重要买家，尤其在高粱、大豆、稻谷、棉花和玉米等品种上依赖度 高。若美国实施对等关税，中国可能反制，推升国内农产品价格，利好 种植业标的，如北大荒、苏垦农发等。 2025 年 5-8 月，中国进口大豆同比增长 15.7%，但美国大豆进口减少， 巴西大豆占比高达 87%。高粱进口同比下降 41%，主因美国高粱进口 锐减。特朗普政策若落地，中国或面临美国大豆供应短缺，高粱进口问 题或加剧，双方均承压。 中国蔬菜种子进口的 20%来自美国，过去两年实施零关税。若反制措施 实施，将提高进口蔬菜种子成本，利好国内企业，如绿亨科技、中粮糖 业等，相关股票在 4 月 7 日后已现上涨趋势。 中国粮食安全长期风险可控，2025 年 2-3 季度已提前采购国际大豆。 巴西和阿根廷大豆丰产缓解国际市场压力，大豆价格保持平稳。若中美 未达成新采购协议，美国农业将面临困境，中国或面临关键品种短缺。 Q&A 在特朗普发起对等关税后，为什么种植产业链的多个标的在 4 月 7 号后的几个 交 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [11] Core Insights - The pig farming sector is experiencing comprehensive losses, with a focus on the expected differences in the sector [3][15] - The dairy and beef sectors are anticipated to enter a new cycle, with opportunities in the beef industry [4][17] - The pet industry is witnessing a rise of domestic brands and a positive trend in pet food exports [5][19] - The poultry sector is focusing on breeding gaps and improving consumer demand for yellow chickens [6][24] - The seed industry is waiting for a turnaround, emphasizing opportunities in biological breeding [7][27] - The feed sector is recommended for companies with increasing market share and consistent performance [8][28] Summary by Sections Pig Farming Sector - The industry is in comprehensive losses, with a significant drop in pig prices, down 9.37% to 11.41 CNY/kg as of October 11 [15] - The average loss per pig is 77.09 CNY, with a notable increase in the number of sows being culled [15][16] - Key companies to focus on include Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, with valuations at historical lows [3][16] Beef Sector - Raw milk prices are stabilizing, and the beef cycle may have started, with a focus on companies with mother cow resources [4][17] - The average price of live cattle is 27.16 CNY/kg, showing a year-on-year increase of 13.6% [17] Pet Industry - Domestic brands are rapidly growing, with significant sales increases in pet food, particularly on platforms like Douyin [5][18] - Pet food exports reached 230,400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.23% [19] Poultry Sector - The white chicken sector is focusing on breeding imports, with a 21.78% year-on-year decrease in breeding stock [21][22] - Yellow chicken prices are expected to improve due to supply constraints and increasing consumer demand [24] Seed Industry - The seed industry is expected to see a turnaround, with a focus on high-yield production and the integration of advanced agricultural technologies [27] - Recommended companies include Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong [27] Feed Sector - Hai Da Group is highlighted for its increasing market share and consistent performance in the feed sector [28] - The sector is expected to recover as smaller companies exit the market, leading to improved conditions [28]

Core Insights - The successful implementation of the probiotic "Snow Mountain Grass Chicken" breeding project in Yili Town is a significant step towards revitalizing local rural industries and providing sustainable income channels for farmers [1][4][6] Group 1: Project Overview - The project is driven by the collaboration between the Guangdong Provincial High Court, the local government, and the investment team, focusing on high-quality specialty breeding [1][3] - It aims to create a comprehensive service system from chick supply to technical guidance and product recovery, adopting an "enterprise + base + farmer" operational model [3][4] Group 2: Economic Impact - The project has already introduced over 3,000 chicks in four batches, with plans to gradually expand the breeding scale and enhance product quality and market competitiveness [4] - The initiative is expected to significantly contribute to the local economy by integrating more farmers into the specialty breeding industry chain, thereby increasing their income [4][6] Group 3: Strategic Goals - The local government plans to continue providing policy support and service guarantees to ensure the project's steady expansion and success [4][6] - The project emphasizes a "not quantity, but quality" approach, aiming to establish a distinctive breeding brand with regional influence [3][4]