Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of plastics has limited improvement. With new capacity coming into production recently, the开工 rate is relatively high compared to PP, and the concentrated demand for plastic film has not started yet. It is expected that the L - PP spread will decline. The plastics market is expected to fluctuate within a range [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On February 5th, new maintenance devices such as the full - density line 1 of Guangdong Petrochemical were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 90.5%, which is at a moderately high level. As of the week of January 30th, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 1.77 percentage points to 37.76% week - on - week. The orders and raw material inventory of agricultural film decreased slightly, and the orders of packaging film also decreased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years. At the end of January, the petrochemical inventory was quickly reduced and is currently at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Due to the repeated geopolitical situation in Iran and the US reducing tariffs on India, the crude oil price rebounded. New capacities of 500,000 tons/year of BASF (Guangdong) FDPE and 300,000 tons/year of Yulong Petrochemical LDPE/EVA were put into production in January 2026. The plastic operating rate has slightly decreased recently. The concentrated demand for plastic film has not started, the temperature has dropped, terminal construction has slowed down, and the demand in the north has decreased. It is expected that the downstream operating rate will continue to decline, and terminal factories will mainly make rigid - demand purchases [1]. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures**: The plastic 2605 contract decreased in position, fluctuated and declined. The lowest price was 6,750 yuan/ton, the highest price was 6,900 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6,777 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.81%. The position decreased by 6,547 lots to 522,504 lots [2]. - **Spot**: Most of the PE spot market declined, with the price change ranging from - 100 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,700 - 7,170 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,500 - 9,080 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,810 - 8,090 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On February 5th, new maintenance devices such as the full - density line 1 of Guangdong Petrochemical were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 90.5%, which is at a moderately high level [4]. - **Demand**: As of the week of January 30th, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 1.77 percentage points to 37.76% week - on - week. The orders and raw material inventory of agricultural film decreased slightly, and the orders of packaging film also decreased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years [4]. - **Inventory**: The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Thursday decreased by 65,000 tons to 420,000 tons week - on - week, 105,000 tons lower than the same lunar period last year. At the end of January, the petrochemical inventory was quickly reduced and is currently at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4]. - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 04 contract rose above $68/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat week - on - week at $700/ton, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene decreased by $5/ton to $675/ton week - on - week [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The raw material end crude oil price has dropped significantly, the Middle East geopolitical situation is uncertain, the ethylene monomer link is weak, and the PE ethylene process profit has been repaired. The PE market has rebounded continuously in the early stage, with transactions mostly concentrated in the middle - stream, and downstream has not chased up to replenish stocks. The downstream agricultural film has weakened recently, while the packaging film industry maintains rigid demand. On the supply side, BASF Zhanjiang is gradually in trial production, the maintenance plan in February has decreased month - on - month, some FD has switched back to standard products, and the supply - demand pressure brought by high existing production capacity and weakening demand before the Spring Festival still needs to be concerned [2] - Futures are fluctuating, upstream inventory has been transferred in the early stage, enterprise quotations remain stable, agent order - opening and mid - stream sales are weak. Yulong Petrochemical has resumed production of 7042, and the production of standard products is at a medium level. Downstream product profits are compressed, and there is resistance to high prices. The overseas quotation has risen, and LL supplies are scarce. The long - term import profit has opened, but the import volume of importers has not increased yet. Downstream factories are mostly cautious and wait - and - see. It is expected that the intensification of geopolitical situation may support the strength of the US dollar market [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of L2605 is 6918, with a daily increase of 0.77%, the trading volume is 481,865, and the position change is 17,366 [1] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of the 05 contract is - 188 (previous day: - 185), and the spread between the 05 - 09 contracts is - 57 (previous day: - 51) [1] - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China are 6,730 yuan/ton, 6,880 yuan/ton, and 6,950 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 50 yuan/ton, 80 yuan/ton, and 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1] Spot News - Futures are fluctuating, upstream inventory has been transferred, enterprise quotations remain stable, agent order - opening and mid - stream sales are weak. Yulong Petrochemical has resumed production of 7042, and the production of standard products is at a medium level. Downstream product profits are compressed, and there is resistance to high prices. The overseas quotation has risen, and LL supplies are scarce. The long - term import profit has opened, but the import volume of importers has not increased yet. Downstream factories are mostly cautious and wait - and - see. It is expected that the intensification of geopolitical situation may support the strength of the US dollar market [1] Market Condition Analysis - The raw material end crude oil price has dropped significantly, the Middle East geopolitical situation is uncertain, the ethylene monomer link is weak, and the PE ethylene process profit has been repaired. The PE market has rebounded continuously in the early stage, with transactions mostly concentrated in the middle - stream, and downstream has not chased up to replenish stocks. The downstream agricultural film has weakened recently, while the packaging film industry maintains rigid demand. On the supply side, BASF Zhanjiang is gradually in trial production, the maintenance plan in February has decreased month - on - month, some FD has switched back to standard products, and the supply - demand pressure brought by high existing production capacity and weakening demand before the Spring Festival still needs to be concerned [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LLDPE is - 1 [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not specified in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of plastics has limited improvement. Although the upstream petrochemical inventory is low and the basis has been repaired, and the sentiment in the commodity market has improved, plastics are expected to fluctuate within a range. Due to new capacity production and the high operating rate compared to PP, and the non - start of concentrated demand for mulch film, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On February 4th, the addition of maintenance devices such as Sinochem Quanzhou HDPE led to a decline in the plastics operating rate to around 91%, which is at a moderately high level. As of the week ending January 30th, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 1.77 percentage points to 37.76% week - on - week. The orders for agricultural films and raw material inventory decreased slightly, and packaging film orders also decreased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years. At the end of January, petrochemical inventory was depleted quickly and is currently at a low level compared to the same period in recent years. The cost of crude oil has rebounded. New capacities were put into production in January 2026. The concentrated demand for mulch film has not started, and the downstream operating rate is expected to continue to decline. The supply - demand pattern of plastics has limited improvement, but there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter - involute, and the plastics are expected to fluctuate within a range [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastics 2605 contract increased in positions and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 6,811 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,937 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,865 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.64%. The open interest increased by 17,366 lots to 529,051 lots [2]. - Spot: Most PE spot markets declined, with price changes ranging from - 100 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,700 - 7,170 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,500 - 9,080 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,810 - 8,090 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On February 4th, the plastics operating rate dropped to around 91% due to new maintenance devices, and it is at a moderately high level [4]. - Demand: As of the week ending January 30th, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 1.77 percentage points week - on - week to 37.76%, and it is at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years [4]. - Inventory: The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Wednesday decreased by 0.5 tons week - on - week to 50 tons, 6 tons lower than the same lunar period last year. Currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a low level compared to the same period in recent years [4]. - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 04 contract rose to 67 US dollars/barrel. The price of ethylene in Northeast Asia remained flat week - on - week at 700 US dollars/ton, and the price of ethylene in Southeast Asia remained flat week - on - week at 680 US dollars/ton [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The PVC market is characterized by a game between weak reality and strong expectations. In the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate widely, and the daily range of V2605 is estimated to be around 5000 - 5200. Although the fundamentals show high - level inventory accumulation and a bearish supply - demand drive, the market has an optimistic expectation for the alleviation of future supply pressure, which provides some support to the market [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of PVC is 5155 yuan/ton, up 84 yuan; the trading volume is 2182106 lots, down 24041 lots; the open interest is 1152260 lots, up 102782 lots. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders are 1065605 lots, up 44081 lots; the short positions are 1203361 lots, up 61292 lots; the net long positions are - 137756 lots, down 17211 lots [2] Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4945 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4808.46 yuan/ton, up 22.69 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5050 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4868.12 yuan/ton, down 6.25 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China is 680 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 660 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 660 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC is - 305 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2850 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China is 2790 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China is 2616 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 150 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East is 417 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars; in Southeast Asia is 448 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East is 199 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars; in Southeast Asia is 194 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 78.93%, up 0.19%. The operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 80.58%, up 0.58%; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 75.02%, down 0.72%. The total social inventory of PVC is 58.47 tons, up 0.82 tons; the inventory in East China is 53.58 tons, up 0.84 tons; the inventory in South China is 4.89 tons, down 0.02 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 91.45, down 0.45. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 58769.96 square meters, up 5313.26 square meters; the cumulative value of real - estate construction area is 659890.29 square meters, up 3824.09 square meters; the cumulative value of real - estate development investment is 44895.98 billion yuan, up 2871.41 billion yuan [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 20.55%, up 0.44%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 22.62%, up 0.3%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 23.9%, up 0.44%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 23.89%, up 0.47% [2] Industry News - From January 24th to 30th, the capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises was 78.93%, up 0.19% month - on - month. The downstream product operating rate of PVC decreased by 0.11% to 44.75%, with the pipe operating rate remaining stable at 37% and the profile operating rate remaining stable at 31.52%. As of January 29th, the social inventory of PVC was 120.64 tons, up 2.45% month - on - month. V2605 rose 1.92% to close at 5155 yuan/ton. The national average cost of calcium - carbide - based PVC increased to 5194 yuan/ton, and the national average cost of ethylene - based PVC decreased to 4896 yuan/ton. The profit of calcium - carbide - based PVC was - 744 yuan/ton, with a slight reduction in losses; the profit of ethylene - based PVC was 21 yuan/ton, turning from loss to profit [2]

从资金流向上来看，当日塑料板块主力资金净流出7.16亿元，游资资金净流入8212.62万元，散户资金净 流入6.34亿元。塑料板块个股资金流向见下表： 证券之星消息，2月4日塑料板块较上一交易日下跌0.05%，*ST艾艾领跌。当日上证指数报收于4102.2， 上涨0.85%。深证成指报收于14156.27，上涨0.21%。塑料板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 605488 | 福来新材 | 40.88 | 5.20% | 16.61万 | | 6.77亿 | | 301687 | 新广益 | 60.66 | 5.18% | 4.91万 | | 2.93亿 | | 688585 | 上纬新材 | 142.60 | 4.37% | 4.68万 | | 6.68 亿 | | 920056 | 能之光 | 28.72 | 3.46% | - 4.34万 | | 1.25亿 | | 603150 | 万朗薇塑 | 48.56 | 3.19% | 3.66 ...

Core Viewpoint - The acquisition of the plastic and engineering plastics compound business from the South Korean chemical giant Hanwha by Shandong Dawn Polymer Materials Co., Ltd. is a strategic move to enhance the company's global presence and competitiveness in the international market [1] Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition will be executed through Dawn's wholly-owned subsidiary, Dawn Polymer Materials (Singapore) Investment Co., Ltd., with a total purchase price of approximately $15.737 million [1] - The target business will be established as a new company, which will be fully owned by Dawn Polymer Materials (Singapore) Investment Co., Ltd. [1] Group 2: Strategic Implications - This acquisition aligns with the trend of key customers shifting their supply chains to regions like Vietnam, allowing the company to strengthen strategic partnerships and enhance customer loyalty [1] - Localized production will significantly reduce cross-border logistics costs, shorten product delivery times, and improve after-sales support efficiency [1] - The establishment of a production base in Vietnam will serve as a crucial hub for expanding into the Southeast Asian market, thereby enhancing the overall competitiveness of the company's products and services [1]

Core Insights - The production facility for 2,000 tons of specialty aromatic olefin polymers by Zhuhai Wantong Special Engineering Plastics Co., Ltd. has been launched, marking the first domestic achievement in the full chain of "catalyst-process-equipment" autonomy in this field [1] - This marks the first large-scale production of specialty aromatic olefin polymers, which are crucial materials for high-frequency communication, new energy vehicles, and smart home industries [1] Company Developments - Wantong Special Plastics has developed a high-activity catalyst system, a horizontal self-cleaning polymerization reactor, and a phase-controllable polymerization process, establishing a comprehensive technology platform covering the entire chain from catalyst to equipment [1] - The company plans to complete the construction of a 10,000-ton industrialization phase one project for specialty aromatic olefin polymers by 2028, providing comprehensive solutions for strategic industries such as robotics and new energy vehicles [1]

商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 4 日 LLDPE：进口缩窄递盘有限，油价支撑转弱 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2605 | 6865 | -0.19% | 627843 | 15259 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 05合约基差 | -185 | | -158 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -51 | | -41 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华 北 | 6680 | | 6720 | | | | 东 华 | 6800 | | 6880 | | | | 华 南 | 6900 | | 6940 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 期货研究 【现货消息】 期货震荡，上游前期库存转移，企业报价维持，代理开单及中游销售较弱 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January, the domestic polyethylene market showed multi - dimensional characteristics. Supply increased, demand was in the off - season, inventory was differentiated, and the cost increase supported the improvement of industry profits. In February, affected by the Spring Festival, the market is expected to be weakly adjusted due to intensified supply - demand contradictions and uncertainties in inventory and cost [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Supply Side Supply and Capacity Utilization - In January, the total domestic polyethylene supply expanded, with the total production reaching 3.44482 million tons, an increase of 730,250 tons from the previous month. LLDPE production was 1.58449 million tons, an increase of 285,420 tons. The production loss due to device maintenance increased by 24.8% to 488,270 tons. The overall capacity utilization rate rose to 83.70%, up 3.8 percentage points. Regional capacity utilization showed a "two - up, one - down" pattern [7][8]. - In the follow - up, the restart of the 400,000 - ton PE device in Zhonghua Quanzhou may increase the supply pressure [9]. Inventory - At the end of January, the total inventory of PE production enterprises decreased to 323,000 tons, a decrease of 135,600 tons. The social inventory of PE increased to 479,600 tons, an increase of 81,000 tons, showing a differentiated pattern [12][13]. Import - In January, the international LLDPE price rose. The import volume in December increased to 1.3299 million tons, an increase of 267,750 tons. The average import profit of each variety improved in January [17][18][19]. Demand Side - In January, the overall downstream start - up rate of polyethylene was 39.86%, a decrease of 2.58%. The start - up rates of the agricultural film and packaging film industries decreased. The raw material inventory of downstream enterprises showed structural changes. In February, the demand is expected to be weakly stable, with only a few areas having phased improvement [21][22][23]. Cost and Profit Cost - In January, the cost of oil - based polyethylene increased to 7,395.43 yuan/ton, an increase of 382.71 yuan/ton, and the cost of coal - based polyethylene increased to 6,495 yuan/ton, a increase of 46.86 yuan/ton [24][26]. Profit - In January, the loss of oil - based enterprises narrowed, with the profit at - 588.29 yuan/ton, a recovery of 78.71 yuan/ton. The profit of coal - based enterprises increased significantly, reaching 346.43 yuan/ton, a sharp increase of 553.14 yuan/ton [27]. Spread - In January, the spread of PE - PVC:01 and PE - PP:01 contracts continued to narrow, reflecting the strength and weakness of related product markets [28]. Summary - In February, the polyethylene market is expected to be affected by the Spring Festival. The supply pressure may increase, the demand will weaken, the inventory may accumulate, and the cost support is uncertain. The market is likely to be weakly adjusted [30].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - On February 3, the plastic operating rate remained at around 92%, at a moderately high level. As of the week of January 30, the downstream operating rate of PE declined by 1.77 percentage points to 37.76% week-on-week, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE was still at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years. At the end of January, the petrochemical inventory was de-stocked rapidly, and currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. The geopolitical situation cooled down, the cold wave weakened, and the crude oil price dropped significantly. New production capacities were put into operation in January 2026. The plastic operating rate increased slightly recently. The concentrated demand for mulching film has not started yet, the temperature dropped, the terminal construction slowed down, the demand in the north decreased, the production of greenhouse film in the north basically stopped, the prices of agricultural film remained stable, the operating rates of agricultural film and packaging film decreased, and it is expected that the downstream operating rate will continue to decline. The macro sentiment cooled down, and plastics are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term following the market sentiment. Before the Spring Festival, the supply - demand pattern of plastics will improve limitedly, the spot follow - up is limited, the basis will decline, but there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter the involution, and the upstream petrochemical inventory is low. It is expected that plastics will fluctuate within a range. Due to the new production capacity of plastics in recent days, the operating rate is higher than that of PP, and the concentrated demand for mulching film has not started yet. It is expected that the L - PP spread will decline [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On February 3, there were few changes in the overhaul devices, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 92%, at a moderately high level. The geopolitical situation cooled down, the cold wave weakened, and the crude oil price dropped significantly. New production capacities were put into operation in January 2026. The plastic operating rate increased slightly recently. The concentrated demand for mulching film has not started yet, the temperature dropped, the terminal construction slowed down, the demand in the north decreased, the production of greenhouse film in the north basically stopped, the prices of agricultural film remained stable, the operating rates of agricultural film and packaging film decreased, and it is expected that the downstream operating rate will continue to decline. The macro sentiment cooled down, and plastics are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term following the market sentiment. Before the Spring Festival, the supply - demand pattern of plastics will improve limitedly, the spot follow - up is limited, the basis will decline, but there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter the involution, and the upstream petrochemical inventory is low. It is expected that plastics will fluctuate within a range. It is expected that the L - PP spread will decline [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes Futures - The plastic 2605 contract increased its positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 6,811 yuan/ton, the highest price was 6,937 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6,865 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.15%. The position increased by 15,259 lots to 511,685 lots [2]. Spot - Most of the PE spot markets declined, with a price change range between - 200 and + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,700 - 7,170 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,600 - 9,180 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,810 - 8,090 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: On February 3, there were few changes in the overhaul devices, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 92%, at a moderately high level. - Demand side: As of the week of January 30, the downstream operating rate of PE declined by 1.77 percentage points to 37.76% week - on - week. The orders of agricultural film and the raw material inventory of agricultural film decreased slightly, at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. The orders of packaging film also decreased slightly, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE was still at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years. - Petrochemical inventory: On Tuesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 95,000 tons to 505,000 tons week - on - week, 75,000 tons lower than the same lunar period last year. At the end of January, the petrochemical inventory was de - stocked rapidly, and currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. - Raw material: The Brent crude oil 04 contract dropped to $66/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $700/ton week - on - week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $680/ton week - on - week [4].