2025 年 07 月 09 日 从对等关税到"歧视性关税" 世 界 经 济 证券分析师 赵伟 A0230524070010 zhaowei@swsresearch.com 陈达飞 A0230524080010 chendf@swsresearch.com 赵宇 A0230524080007 zhaoyu2@swsresearch.com 联系人 赵宇 (8621)23297818× zhaoyu2@swsresearch.com 美东时间 7 月 7 日，特朗普向日本、韩国等 14 国发送了上调关税的信件。新关税将于 8 月 1 日生效，税率较为接近 4 月初的对等关税。市场选择"理性忽视"，等待后续的数据验证。 一、美国关税执行现状？特朗普推迟关税暂停截至日，或分批发出关税上调信函 截至 5 月，美国平均关税税率 7.4%，加征进度偏慢。截至最新数据，美国对中国税率 38.6%， 对日本 9.3%、对英国 6.2%，对越南 4.8%、对德国 6%。主要产品关税中，汽车进口税率 13.4%， 钢制产品进口税率 29.5%、铝产品 23%，塑料产品 11.3%，电气设备 8.3%。 7 月 7 日，美国宣布提 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][18][22] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a year-on-year net profit growth of 48.19% to 54.83% in the first half of 2025, with projected net profit ranging from 49.1 million to 51.3 million yuan [2][7] - The growth is driven by the rapid development of advanced electronic materials and battery materials, benefiting from global AI computing power construction, high-frequency communication, and the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors [2][3] - The company has successfully expanded its market share in the synthetic resin industry through new applications and fields, with phenolic resin capacity reaching approximately 650,000 tons, ranking among the world's top [3][16] - The Daqing production base is expected to achieve a reduction in losses in the first half of 2025, with increasing capacity utilization and a focus on efficient biomass utilization [17] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit of 789 million yuan in 2023, with a growth of 12.23% year-on-year, and expects revenues of 9.12 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.98% [8][20] - For 2024, the company anticipates revenues of 10.02 billion yuan, a 9.87% increase, and a net profit of 868 million yuan, a 9.94% increase [8][20] - The projected revenues for 2025 are 12.14 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.13 billion yuan, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [4][20] Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company is positioned as a leader in the synthetic resin sector, with a strong focus on high-frequency and high-speed PCB materials, which are essential for AI servers and data centers [11][18] - The new production lines for advanced electronic materials and battery materials are expected to ramp up production in the first half of 2025, contributing to revenue growth [2][11] - The company is actively developing new applications for its products, particularly in the silicon-carbon negative electrode materials market, which is expanding into the power battery sector [3][18] Valuation Metrics - The company is projected to have earnings per share (EPS) of 1.44 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 20.85 [4][20] - The expected revenues for 2025-2027 are 121.43 billion yuan, 136.98 billion yuan, and 155.35 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 11.29 billion yuan, 13.87 billion yuan, and 16.34 billion yuan [4][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the third quarter, PP and PE still face significant capacity expansion pressure, which eases in the fourth quarter. The expected standard - grade PE production in the second half of the year is only 500,000 tons, with reduced pressure compared to the first half. However, supply is not tightening as there was high - level maintenance in the first half, and there is an expectation of increased production from existing facilities in the second half. Terminal demand is weak year - on - year, and there are no strong factors to reverse this trend, so there is a lack of upward momentum. The strategy is mainly to sell short on rallies [3]. - In the short and medium term, a bearish view is taken on the single - side trading. For arbitrage and options, a wait - and - see approach is recommended [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Third - quarter PP and PE capacity expansion pressure is large, easing in the fourth quarter. PE standard - grade production pressure in the second half is reduced, but supply may increase due to expected higher operation rates of existing facilities. Terminal demand is weak, lacking upward drivers [3]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a bearish stance on single - side trading in the short and medium term; temporarily hold off on arbitrage and options trading [4]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **Capacity Expansion**: For PE, the expected new capacity for the 2509 contract is 2.05 million tons, and 800,000 tons for the 2601 contract. For PP, the 2505 contract has an expected new capacity of 2.11 million tons, 2.2 million tons for the 2509 contract, and 950,000 tons for the 2601 contract. The total new PE capacity in 2025 is expected to be 5.43 million tons, and 5.26 million tons for PP [12][13][14]. - **Demand**: PE and PP demand is weak year - on - year. For PE, the current mainstream downstream industry operating rates range from 20% - 51%. For PP, the plastic - weaving industry is in the off - season with reduced new orders, and the BOPP film industry has a shorter order cycle [22]. 3.3 PE Weekly Data Tracking - **Inventory**: This week, PE inventory increased by 8,000 tons to 1.02 million tons. Two - oil inventory remained unchanged, while coal - chemical, trader, and port inventories increased by 2,000 tons, 5,000 tons, and 1,000 tons respectively [11]. - **Production and Operation**: The current PE operating rate is 76.88%, up 4.43 percentage points from the previous period. The annual production capacity affected by maintenance is 6.97 million tons, and the maintenance loss this week is 108,500 tons, a decrease of 16,300 tons from the previous period [65]. - **Price and Spread**: The report provides detailed price data for PE raw materials, products, and various spreads, including changes in oil - based PE profit, CTO profit, and import profit [24]. - **Import and Export**: This week, the PE import market showed "reduced volume and stable prices." Supply was tightened due to some Middle - East plant failures, and the Chinese market price being low globally reduced foreign suppliers' willingness to quote. Import arrivals may continue to decline from July to August [81]. - **Demand**: PE downstream industry operating rates vary. Agricultural film operating rate increased by 3 percentage points to 20%, while pipe operating rate decreased by 2 percentage points to 32% [22]. 3.4 PP Weekly Data Tracking - **Inventory**: This week, PP inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 514,000 tons. Two - oil inventory increased by 5,000 tons, while coal - chemical, trader, and port inventories decreased by 3,000 tons, 2,000 tons, and 1,000 tons respectively [11]. - **Production and Operation**: The current PP operating rate is 77.41%, down 1.85 percentage points from the previous week but up 3.51 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rates of oil - based, coal - based, and PDH - based PP are 73.26%, 92.36%, and 76.18% respectively [133]. - **Price and Spread**: The report presents comprehensive PP price data, including raw material prices, product prices, and various spreads such as non - standard spreads and basis spreads [100]. - **Import and Export**: PP import offers are scarce, with few transactions due to the large gap between offers and buyers' expectations. PP export arbitrage opportunities are limited, mainly due to weak overseas markets and new domestic capacity leading to a supply - abundant situation [145][147]. - **Demand**: PP downstream industries, such as plastic - weaving, are in the off - season with reduced new orders. The BOPP film industry has a shorter order cycle, and some small and medium - sized injection - molding enterprises are operating at low rates [22].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry analyzed [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the focus on "supply-side optimization" and "anti-involution" competition, with potential policy implementations expected in the second half of the year [3][8]. - Key industries identified for "anti-involution" include those with high inventory, high CAPEX, low capacity utilization, and low price levels, particularly in sectors such as chemicals, non-ferrous metals, coal, steel, and various manufacturing and consumer goods [3][11][13]. - The report outlines five perspectives for identifying potential beneficiaries of the "anti-involution" policies, including state-owned enterprise (SOE) share, industry concentration, tax revenue impact, labor intensity, and price elasticity post-capacity reduction [5][6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Policy Focus - The report highlights that the Central Financial Committee meeting on July 1 emphasized supply-side optimization and "anti-involution" competition, referencing past supply-side reforms from 2015-2016 as a model for future policy actions [3][8]. Key Industry Characteristics - Industries with high inventory, high CAPEX, low capacity utilization, and low price levels are targeted for policy intervention. These include: - Cyclical industries: Chemicals (chemical products, rubber, non-metallic materials), non-ferrous metals (energy metals), coal, and steel (common steel, steel raw materials) [3][11]. - Manufacturing: Electric new (motors, grid equipment, batteries, photovoltaics), machinery (automation equipment), automotive (passenger vehicles), military electronics, and construction [3][11]. - Consumer goods: Home appliances (appliance components), food and beverage (food processing, liquor, snacks) [3][11]. Five Perspectives for Industry Selection - **State-Owned Enterprise (SOE) Share**: Industries with higher SOE shares are expected to have stronger policy execution efficiency, including coal, common steel, cement, glass, and consumer sectors like liquor [3][5]. - **Industry Concentration**: Higher concentration industries are more likely to achieve supply clearing through stronger pricing power and quicker policy response, particularly in energy metals, non-metallic materials, and consumer goods like liquor [3][5]. - **Tax Revenue Impact**: Industries with lower tax revenue contributions will have a smaller impact on local finances during capacity reduction, focusing on sectors like glass, energy metals, and common steel [3][5]. - **Labor Intensity**: Industries with lower labor intensity will have a reduced impact on employment during capacity reduction, including non-metallic materials, chemical products, and energy metals [3][5]. - **Price Elasticity Post-Capacity Reduction**: Industries with a strong correlation between asset turnover and gross margin are expected to see greater price and margin expansion post-capacity reduction, including glass, chemical products, and energy metals [3][5]. Potential Beneficiary Industries - The report identifies several industries as potential beneficiaries of the "anti-involution" policies based on the five perspectives, including: - Coal mining, common steel, precious metals, glass fiber, coke, energy metals, steel raw materials, cement, chemical products, non-metallic materials, and various manufacturing sectors [6][7].

Group 1 - Germany is planning to provide billions of euros in subsidies to energy-intensive industries as part of Chancellor Merz's commitment to enhance the competitiveness of German heavy industry, with an estimated investment of around €4 billion [1] - The number of German companies eligible for electricity price subsidies is set to increase from 350 to 2,200, aimed at reducing electricity costs for industrial enterprises [1][2] - The German government emphasizes that supporting industrial enterprises is crucial for maintaining employment amid weak economic growth [1][2] Group 2 - The subsidy plan will cover up to 50% of electricity costs for companies over the next three years, particularly benefiting the chemical, glass, and plastics industries [2] - The plan aligns with the new EU state aid framework, which allows member states to subsidize industrial electricity costs to aid decarbonization efforts [2] - There is ongoing debate regarding the electricity subsidy, with some factions arguing for broader relief measures that include households and smaller businesses [2][4] Group 3 - The expansion of the subsidy reflects Germany's increased support for its industrial sector, particularly in light of significant job losses in the past year [3] - The chemical industry, seen as a barometer for the economy, has shown improved business sentiment, with the business climate index rising significantly [3] - However, there are concerns that the subsidy may undermine incentives for long-term renewable energy contracts and could negatively impact small businesses [4] Group 4 - Germany has one of the highest electricity prices globally, with an average price of €0.38 per kWh in the first quarter of this year [5][6] - The current electricity tax structure places a heavier burden on households compared to industrial users, raising concerns about the government's commitment to reducing energy costs for the public [6] - The new spending plans may conflict with EU fiscal rules, as Germany's federal deficit is projected to increase significantly over the coming years [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polypropylene is in a phase of oscillating downward, and the later price center is expected to decline. The contract is pp2509. The Middle - East conflict has led to significant cost fluctuations, but from a fundamental perspective, over - capacity has further intensified the supply - demand pressure. In 2025, new device installations will continue throughout the year, with a concentrated release in June and July, increasing production pressure. Meanwhile, the existing production load remains stable. Supply is higher than in previous years, while demand is only slightly improved [1]. - Polyethylene is also in an oscillating downward phase, and the later price center is expected to decline. The contract is 12509. The Middle - East conflict has caused cost fluctuations, but fundamentally, the supply - demand situation remains weak due to over - capacity. In 2025, new device installations will continue throughout the year, resulting in huge production and sales pressure. The existing production load is acceptable, and supply is higher than in previous years, while demand is in a off - season [7]. - In the first half of 2025, although the prices of polyolefins declined as expected, the decline was not large compared to other chemicals. PP showed an oscillating downward trend, while L had a more fluent decline. In Q2, macro - factors such as trade wars and the Israel - Iran conflict dominated, causing polyolefins to fluctuate widely. Looking forward to the second half of the year, as the impact of trade wars and geopolitical issues fades, the focus may shift back to the fundamentals, which still feature high production and a balanced supply - demand situation. Overall, the market is expected to oscillate weakly, and cost disturbances such as those from crude oil and methanol need to be noted [8][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - Price: In Q1, polyolefin prices oscillated downward, with a significant decline at the beginning of the year due to increased supply pressure and a slowdown in downstream demand. In Q2, they fluctuated widely due to macro - factors such as trade wars and the Israel - Iran conflict. The 12505 contract rebounded due to strong demand for agricultural films in North China [8][14]. - Basis: In mid - January, the basis of polyolefins declined, especially for L. In February and March, the basis changed little. After late March, the basis trends of PP and L diverged, with PP's spot price being stronger and L's basis oscillating downward [14]. - Spread: The PF59 monthly spread showed an upward trend, especially in March and April, mainly reflecting the expected pressure from future production [14]. - Disk Spread: Since January, the L - P spread has been declining, mainly due to the alleviation of L's supply shortage after new device installations. After the Spring Festival, L strengthened again due to better downstream demand. In April, the L - PP spread further declined and then rebounded slightly [26]. - Methanol Price: Methanol prices have been weakening since January, but rebounded strongly after the Israel - Iran conflict, causing MTO profits to deteriorate [26]. 2. Supply Domestic Capacity Installation - PP: At the beginning of the year, it was expected that over 700 million tons of new devices would be installed, mainly in the first half of the year. In the first half of the year, a total of 2.855 million tons of 6 new devices were installed, slightly lower than expected, but the capacity pressure continued to increase. The main installation processes were oil - based (1.855 million tons) and coal - based (1 million tons) [47]. - PE: At the beginning of the year, it was expected that 5.8 million tons of new PE devices would be installed, with a relatively even quarterly distribution. In the first half of the year, a total of 3.03 million tons of new devices were installed, exceeding half of the plan. The installation progress was smooth, and the pressure of new installations will continue in the second half of the year. In the first half of the year, more standard - grade products were installed, while in the second half, non - standard products will be the focus [48]. Production - End Profits - Crude Oil: In Q1, crude oil prices first rose and then fell. The price increase in December was driven by increased heating demand and concerns about supply shortages. In January, prices started to decline due to factors such as the cease - fire agreement between Palestine and Israel. In Q2, prices fluctuated widely due to trade wars and the Israel - Iran conflict. The production profit of polyolefins from oil first recovered and then deteriorated, but the pressure on enterprises was not significant [62]. - Coal: High production and weak demand led to a decline in coal prices, resulting in good CTO profits [62]. - Methanol: Since late February, methanol prices have first rebounded and then declined, causing MTO profits to first deteriorate and then recover slightly, but overall profits were not good [62]. Domestic Production Volume and Load - PP: Since 2025, due to good production - end profits, enterprises have been more willing to start production, and the number of maintenance days was less than expected. With the high - load operation of existing capacity and the installation of new devices, PP production has continuously reached new highs. As of June, the total production volume was 19.4186 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.54%. All production processes, including oil - based, coal - based, and PDH - based, have increased production [102]. - PE: PE supply has also increased significantly, but production decreased in May due to increased maintenance. As of June, the total PE production volume was 16.1505 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.05%. The increase mainly came from LLD and LD products [110]. Import and Export - PP: As of May, the import volume was 1.3949 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.17%, and the export volume was 1.3286 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.56%. The net import volume was 26,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 94.71%. Affected by the squeeze of domestic supply, the import - export pattern of PP has further reversed, and China has become a net exporter since March [125]. - PE: As of May, the cumulative domestic PE import volume was 5.9651 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.82%, and the export volume was 415,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.79%. The cumulative net import volume was 5.5499 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.82%. The import - export of PE has both increased, and the pattern is relatively stable, but the reduction in imports caused by previous trade conflicts will start to be reflected in June [131]. 3. Demand PP Demand - In the first half of the year, demand was weak during the Spring Festival, but recovered quickly after the festival and entered the peak season in March and April. However, in Q2, demand from downstream industries gradually weakened, and export demand was affected by trade wars. In the future, as the off - season continues, market demand will remain weak [155]. PE Demand - PE demand has more obvious seasonal characteristics. In January, it was in the off - season, but after the Spring Festival, demand for agricultural films recovered, driving up prices. However, after April and May, demand declined as the agricultural film season ended [209]. 4. Inventory - PP Inventory: During the Spring Festival, inventory accumulated seasonally but less than expected. In March, inventory decreased due to high downstream demand. In Q2, inventory remained at a high level, reflecting the high - supply situation [221].

2025 年 7 月 7 日 LLDPE：短期偏弱震荡 陈嘉昕投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481chenjiaxin023887@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2509 | 7282 | -0.15% | 301,296 | 4549 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 0 9合约基差 | -82 | | -94 | | | | 0 9-0 1合约价差 | 3 9 | | 2 2 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 （元/吨） | | | | 华北 | 7200 | | 7190 | | | | 华东 | 7230 | | 7200 | | | | 华南 | 7380 | | 7380 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 LLDPE 市场价格小幅涨跌，价格波幅在 20-100 元/吨。期货高开震荡，尾盘收跌，石化企业价格多数 ...

Core Viewpoint - The PVC industry is experiencing significant losses due to declining demand from the real estate sector and ongoing price drops, leading to a weak supply-demand balance and continued pressure on prices [1][4]. Group 1: Price Trends - PVC prices have dropped by 60% from their peak in October 2021, with no clear signs of recovery as of July 6, 2025 [1]. - The average loss for domestic acetylene-based PVC producers is 520 yuan per ton, indicating high levels of financial strain [2]. Group 2: Supply and Production - The operating load rate of domestic PVC production enterprises is at 78.09%, a slight decrease of 1.64 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - Despite stable weekly production levels around 460,000 tons, the profitability of caustic soda has declined, leading to expectations of reduced PVC production loads in the future [2][4]. - Domestic PVC social inventory stands at 575,200 tons, showing a month-on-month increase of 1.03% but a year-on-year decrease of 38.06% [2]. Group 3: Demand Dynamics - The real estate sector continues to show weak performance, with declines in investment, sales area, new construction, and completion rates, negatively impacting overall PVC demand [3]. - Downstream enterprises are experiencing low order volumes, with the operating rate for PVC pipe sample enterprises estimated at 38.56%, down 1.57 percentage points from the previous week [3]. - PVC exports have increased significantly, with a total export volume of 1,965,900 tons from January to May 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 52.26% [3]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The PVC market is characterized by weak supply and demand, coupled with high loss pressures, suggesting that short-term price movements will likely remain weak and volatile [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for polyolefins is trending weakly with oscillations [1][5][7] 2. Core Views of the Report - For polypropylene, the external environment is volatile, new production capacity offsets supply - side efforts, and the overall supply is in excess. Although there is optimism about improved trade - war situations, the high - level should be treated with caution. The key to future seasonal reversal may be the recovery of Sino - US seasonal demand driven by the Fed's interest - rate cuts [6] - For polyethylene, the easing of the conflict between Iran and Israel has led to a retracement of the premium caused by import risks. The demand is weak, but the rapid decline in social sample warehouse inventory provides short - term support. The supply pressure will gradually increase in Q3 2025, and attention should be paid to the spread changes between different types of polyethylene [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overview - Polypropylene is trending weakly with oscillations. The external environment brings uncertainty, new production capacity offsets supply - side efforts, and export growth is limited [5][6] - Linear low - density polyethylene (LLDPE) is also showing a weakly oscillating trend. The macro environment affects the price premium, and supply - demand imbalance exists [7][8] - Core data shows that the spot price of both polypropylene and polyethylene has decreased compared to the previous period and the same period last year. The basis and monthly spread of both have weakened. The polypropylene's average capacity utilization has decreased, while polyethylene's has increased. The polyolefin inventory has increased slightly compared to the previous period but decreased compared to the same period last year [9] 3.2 Polypropylene Supply and Demand - **Price and Spread**: The non - standard price spread is not conducive to price rebound [17] - **Supply - Side**: New domestic production capacity is being put into operation, and more manufacturers are producing copolymer products with higher profits. The short - term overall start - up rate has declined, and there are still many overhauls in July, but new production capacity offsets the support from overhauls. The potential new production capacity in 2025 is 785.5 million tons, with a capacity increase of 15.4% [20][22][26] - **Inventory**: The production inventory has decreased, while the trader inventory has increased. The total commercial inventory has decreased slightly, mainly due to more upstream overhauls and lower downstream purchasing enthusiasm [27][31] - **Cost and Profit**: The cost has decreased due to the decline in crude oil prices. The profit of oil - based manufacturers has declined, while the profit of PDH - based production has increased [32][37] - **Downstream**: The BOPP start - up rate remains flat, with fewer orders and more finished - product inventory. The profit is at a low level due to over - capacity. The tape master - roll start - up rate, orders, and the start - up rate and orders of plastic - weaving and non - woven fabric industries have all declined. The CPP start - up rate and orders have slightly decreased [39][42][47] 3.3 Polyethylene Supply and Demand - **Spread**: The short - term L - LL spread is declining, which is negative for polyethylene. The HD - LL spread has expanded in 2025, but may oscillate later [62][65] - **Supply - Side**: The start - up rate has decreased, but the output has increased. The expected overhaul loss in July will be less than that in June. The potential new production capacity in 2025 is 613 million tons, with a capacity increase of 17.17% [66][69][70] - **Inventory**: The production - enterprise inventory has decreased, while the social inventory has increased [72] - **Cost and Profit**: The cost has decreased due to the decline in crude oil prices, and the profit of oil - based production devices has declined [76][82] - **Downstream**: The start - up rate and orders of the agricultural film industry have decreased. The start - up rate and orders of the packaging film industry have increased. The start - up rates of the pipe and hollow industries are lower than the same period last year [84][85][86]

Core Insights - The production of primary plastic shapes in Guizhou Province reached 11,000 tons in the first five months of 2025, marking a 9.6% increase compared to the same period in 2024, although the growth rate has slowed by 7.8 percentage points from 2024 [1] - In May 2025, the production for that month alone was 200 tons, reflecting an 11.1% increase year-on-year, but the growth rate has also decreased by 1.5 percentage points compared to 2024 [2] Summary by Category Production Data - Total primary plastic production in Guizhou for January to May 2025 was 11,000 tons, which is 0.0% of the national total of 5,809,800 tons [1] - In May 2025, the production was 200 tons, accounting for 0.0% of the national total of 1,190,000 tons [2] Growth Rates - The growth rate for the first five months of 2025 was 9.6%, which is lower than the national growth rate by 0.5 percentage points [1] - The May 2025 growth rate of 11.1% was higher than the national rate by 0.9 percentage points [2] Historical Context - The definition of primary plastic shapes has evolved, with the term previously known as plastic resins and copolymers until 2004 [6] - The threshold for large-scale industrial enterprises in China was raised from an annual main business income of 5 million yuan to 20 million yuan starting in 2011 [6]