Core Viewpoint - Iron ore futures are showing a strong performance, with the main contract slightly up by 0.89% to 794.0 yuan/ton as of the report date [1] Group 1: Project Developments - Macro Metals announced that its Extension iron ore project in Western Australia is actively progressing, aiming for "excavation readiness" by 2026. The project has indicated resources of 161 million tons with an average iron grade of approximately 54.2%, and an annual production capacity of 2-4 million tons [2] Group 2: Inventory and Consumption Statistics - The total imported iron ore inventory at 45 national ports is 140.245 million tons, an increase of 242,200 tons month-on-month. The total imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports is 146.411 million tons, up by 904,000 tons month-on-month [2] - The total imported iron ore inventory at steel mills is 90.462 million tons, a decrease of 9.906 million tons month-on-month. The daily consumption of imported ore by sample steel mills is 2.9914 million tons, an increase of 34,000 tons month-on-month, with a stock-to-consumption ratio of 30.24 days, down by 3.35 days [2] Group 3: Market Analysis - According to Guoxin Futures, the supply and demand for iron ore are both strong. The demand side is supported by high steel production, maintaining robust iron ore demand. However, there is an expectation of reduced production from steel mills due to high inventory pressure, which may put some pressure on iron ore demand. Supply is expected to increase, leading to a relatively weak outlook for iron ore [3] - Zhongzhou Futures noted that the weekly production and consumption of the five major materials have decreased, leading to an accumulation of total inventory. Although pig iron production has slightly decreased, it remains at a high level, with port inventories accumulating. Real estate sales and construction data remain poor, while steel exports show resilience but face trade protection from some countries. From January to August, both imported and domestic iron ore have decreased year-on-year [3]

Group 1 - The recent surge in precious metals, particularly silver, has garnered significant market attention, with silver prices reaching historical highs and outperforming gold in year-to-date gains [1] - On October 9, the spot silver price surpassed $50 per ounce for the first time, and on October 10, it opened at $46.67 per ounce, peaking at $51.38 per ounce, reflecting a year-to-date increase of over 70% [1] Group 2 - According to research from Zheshang Securities, the core issue for silver currently lies in the decreasing inventory and the increasing investment opportunities in the context of a bull market for precious metals [3] - Global silver mine supply is facing a growth bottleneck, with production expected to decline slightly from 2019 to 2024, primarily due to falling ore grades and frequent disruptions in major mining regions [3] - The supply of silver is largely dependent on the market conditions of primary metals like copper and zinc, as over 70% of silver is produced as a byproduct of these metals [3][4] Group 3 - Fluctuations in the markets for basic metals can lead to decreased mining activity, which directly impacts the supply of silver, making it difficult for mining companies to expand silver production in the short term [4] - Recent inflation expectations, surging industrial demand (especially in photovoltaic cells and new energy sectors), and an influx of investment funds into commodity markets for hedging have driven silver prices to record highs [4] - Despite the recent price surge, silver is unlikely to fully replace gold as an investment asset due to its higher price volatility, lower liquidity, and strong industrial demand, which makes its supply unstable [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways with a downward bias [2] - Iron Ore: Sideways [4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Sideways [6] - Thermal Coal: No strategy provided [8] Core Views - The steel market continues to face weak realities, with steel prices oscillating. The terminal demand for building materials remains weak, and high inventories have not been alleviated. The fundamentals of finished products have not changed, and the high iron - water cost provides support. Attention should be paid to the impact of upcoming meetings on the market and subsequent changes in supply - demand patterns [1]. - The iron ore market is mainly in a wait - and - see mode, with prices fluctuating within a range. Macro - level strong policy expectations intermittently boost commodity prices, and the current overall valuation of iron ore is relatively high. Under the current situation of both supply and demand being strong, the price is expected to remain range - bound [3]. - The coking coal and coke market shows a cautious sentiment, with prices fluctuating. After the holiday, coking coal supply is gradually recovering, and the market remains in a loose pattern. Coke supply has slightly decreased due to weather - related logistics disruptions, and market demand has not improved significantly [5][6]. - The thermal coal market is in the off - season, with downstream daily consumption declining and coal prices showing a weak trend. In the short - term, prices will fluctuate, and in the long - term, the supply remains loose. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [7]. Summaries by Related Content Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the rebar futures contract closed at 3096 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil futures contract closed at 3286 yuan/ton. Rebar production was 203.4 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.62 million tons, and total inventory was 659.64 million tons, an increase of 57.39 million tons. Hot - rolled coil production was 323.29 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.4 million tons, and total inventory was 329.3 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 29.92 million tons. The national building materials trading volume was 11.99 million tons [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For building materials, the traditional peak season is more than half over, terminal demand is still weak, and high inventories have not been alleviated. For plates, after the holiday, prices are relatively stable, and consumption shows resilience. In the short - term, the fundamentals of finished products remain unchanged, and high iron - water costs provide support [1]. - **Strategy**: Sideways with a downward bias for single - sided trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the iron ore futures price rose slightly. In the spot market, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports increased. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and steel mills mainly made purchases based on rigid demand. This period's hot - metal production decreased by 0.27 million tons week - on - week. The total transaction volume of iron ore at major national ports was 98.0 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 397.46%. The total transaction volume of forward - looking spot iron ore was 145.5 million tons (11 transactions), a week - on - week decrease of 40% (with the mine's transaction volume being 128.5 million tons) [3]. - **Logic and View**: Macro - level strong policy expectations intermittently boost commodity prices. Currently, the overall valuation of iron ore is relatively high, supply is relatively loose at high prices, and there is strong consumption resilience under high hot - metal production. The overall inventory is at a medium level. In the short - term, with both supply and demand being strong, the price will remain range - bound [3]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - sided trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, coking coal and coke showed an oscillating trend. As of the close, the coking coal 2601 contract rose 1.57%, and the coke 2601 contract rose 0.52%. For imported coal, customs clearance has resumed, traders' enthusiasm for quoting is average, prices fluctuate with the market, and the trading atmosphere is cold [5]. - **Logic and View**: For coking coal, after the holiday, supply is gradually recovering, and the market remains loose. In the short - term, demand is mainly for inventory consumption, and downstream enterprises' purchasing sentiment is cautious. For coke, affected by northern weather, logistics and transportation are blocked, supply has slightly decreased, and downstream steel mills' profits have declined, with purchases mainly for rigid demand, and market demand has not improved significantly [6]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for both coking coal and coke in single - sided trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the origin, the prices of thermal coal in major production areas fluctuated slightly. It is the off - season, the number of coal - pulling trucks at stations and some mines has significantly decreased, and terminal procurement is strongly pressing down prices. In the port market, the sentiment is average, downstream buyers are mainly in a wait - and - see mode, purchasing enthusiasm is low, and the transaction price center has slightly declined. For imported coal, prices are stable, trading activity has slightly decreased, and market participants have different views on the future market, with overall trading being cold [7]. - **Demand and Logic**: It is the off - season for thermal coal, downstream daily consumption has declined, and port inventories have accumulated. In the short - term, prices will fluctuate, and in the long - term, the supply remains loose. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [7]. - **Strategy**: No strategy provided [8]

Group 1: Market Performance - On October 9, the Gold Stock ETF (517400) led the market with a rise of 9.47%, while the Mining ETF (561330) and Nonferrous 60 ETF (159881) also saw significant gains of 8.58% and 8.44% respectively [1] - During the National Day holiday, gold prices continued to rise, reaching a historical high of $4,059 per ounce on October 8 [5] Group 2: Economic Factors - The weakening of the US dollar credit remains a long-term support for gold prices, with the Federal Reserve lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25% [3] - There is a divergence among Federal Reserve officials regarding the extent of future rate cuts, with a majority expecting at least two more cuts this year [3] Group 3: Supply Chain and Commodity Outlook - The supply side of nonferrous metals is under pressure, particularly due to incidents at major mines like the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia, which is expected to reduce copper output significantly [7] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects a copper supply gap of 20% by 2035, with significant shortages anticipated starting in 2027 [9] - The combination of favorable factors for precious and nonferrous metals suggests that investors should pay attention to Gold Stock ETFs and Mining ETFs [9][10]

赞比亚今年有望创下铜产量新高，在铜价飙升、需求持续增长之际，进一步巩固其作为全球主要供应国的地位。 主要矿山频发事故和停产挤压供应，推动铜价今年上涨逾20%，而赞比亚作为少数产量持续攀升的地区尤为引人注目。若能在竞争对手受挫之际实现增产， 这个财政紧张的国家或将收获意外之财。 此轮涨势主要源于接连不断的供应冲击。今年早些时候，刚果民主共和国一座大型铜矿遭遇洪水侵袭，智利则发生数十年来最严重的矿难。上月，全球第二 大铜矿发生泥石流，迫使运营商自由港麦克莫兰公司大幅下调今年及明年的产量预期。本周，泰克资源公司亦下调其智利旗舰铜矿的产量预期。 赞比亚是非洲第二大铜生产国，仅次于邻国刚果民主共和国。数据显示，矿企已宣布逾100亿美元投资计划，预计到2030年将使年产量增加约120万吨，而去 年产量为82.1万吨。 （文华综合） 作为全球最大的铜消费国，中国产业链面临三大挑战：上游资源对外依存度攀升、中游加工环节产能过剩、下游需求受高铜价抑制。为助力行业应对变局， 上海有色网携手铜产业链企业联合编制《2026中国铜产业链分布图》中英双语版，点击此链接即可免费领取铜产业链分布图： https://s.wcd.im/v/4 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 看好黄金的人有时会被贬义地称为"黄金虫"（goldbugs），在这类投资者眼中，黄金与其说是一种大宗 商品，不如说是一种信仰。 数十年来，他们常被视为"预言美元衰落的怪人"。如今，金价今年累计涨幅超50%、突破每盎司4000美 元关口，轮到他们扬眉吐气了。 25年来，朱斯特拉一直是黄金最坚定的支持者之一。他认为，法定货币贬值与债务堆积终有一天会让黄 金成为能与美元抗衡的储备资产。长期以来，他将黄金描述为"终极货币"；如今，随着各国央行与投资 者纷纷增持黄金，这一曾处于金融边缘的观点正逐渐走向主流。 朱斯特拉的加拿大同行、矿业金融家拉松德与麦克尤恩则认为，在西方债务高企、美国加大制裁与关税 力度的背景下，"去美元化"初现端倪，金价将进一步大幅上涨。朱斯特拉认为黄金牛市"才走完三分之 一"，他特别提到"多边央行数字货币桥"（mBridge）倡议成员国的增持步伐正在加快——该倡议允许机 构通过数字货币兑换结算跨境债权。 "亚洲各国央行，尤其是中国和印度，正试图规避西方体系的混乱风险。"拉松德说，"他们不仅在以创 纪录规模购买黄金，还将黄金更多留在本国，不再存 ...

Core Viewpoint - The significant rise in gold and mining ETFs is attributed to the historical surge in gold prices, driven by various factors including geopolitical tensions and the U.S. government shutdown [9][11][12]. Market Performance - On October 9, the first trading day after the holiday, major stock indices in China saw strong gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.32% to 3933.97 points, marking a 10-year high [1]. - The gold stock ETF closed up 9.47%, the mining ETF up 8.58%, the non-ferrous 60 ETF up 8.44%, and the gold fund ETF up 4.57% [2][4][6][7]. Gold Price Surge - The spot gold price has historically surpassed $4000 per ounce, closing at $4040.42 on October 8, with a cumulative increase of $207.49 per ounce since September 30, reflecting a 5.41% rise [9]. - The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, contributing to uncertainty in the labor market, with the ADP reporting a decrease of 32,000 jobs in September, significantly below expectations [9]. Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the Israel-Palestine conflict, continue to create uncertainty in the market, which may further drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [10][12]. Central Bank Actions - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the eleventh consecutive month, reaching 74.06 million ounces by the end of September, indicating a trend towards diversifying international reserves [10]. Future Outlook - The expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut, combined with geopolitical uncertainties and a trend towards de-dollarization, is likely to support gold prices in the medium to long term [12][14]. - The copper market is also expected to show resilience due to supply constraints and increasing demand from sectors such as electric vehicles and data centers [13][14]. Investment Opportunities - Investors are encouraged to monitor gold and mining ETFs, as their performance is closely tied to gold prices, which are expected to rise [11][14]. - The mining ETF has a significant exposure to copper and gold, with copper accounting for 28% and gold 15% of its composition, while the non-ferrous 60 ETF has 29% copper and 17% gold [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The economy shows mixed trends with GDP growing, but some indicators like CPI in negative territory. The holiday consumption market has a good momentum, and policies are expected to support economic growth in Q4 [1][15][16]. - The metal market is affected by various factors such as export controls and macro - economic trends. Copper prices are expected to rise, and silver has reached a historical high [4][5][7]. - The bond market has a positive start after the holiday, with yields mostly down. Different institutions have different outlooks on the bond market's future trends [19][26][27]. - The stock market has a strong performance after the holiday, with A - shares rising and certain sectors having significant movements. Stock ETFs have attracted large - scale capital inflows [30]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - GDP in Q2 2025 had a 5.2% year - on - year growth at constant prices, slightly lower than the previous quarter [1]. - In September 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up from the previous month, while the non - manufacturing PMI was 50%, down from the previous month [1]. - In August 2025, the CPI was - 0.4% year - on - year, and the PPI was - 2.9% year - on - year [1]. - In August 2025, the social financing scale increment was 25668 billion yuan, and the new RMB loans of financial institutions were 5900 billion yuan [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption technical requirements for 2026 - 2027 are adjusted, and the pure - electric range of plug - in hybrid and extended - range passenger cars is increased [2]. - The added value of small and medium - sized industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 7.6% year - on - year in the first eight months, outperforming large enterprises [2][15]. - Regulatory measures are taken to address price disorderly competition in some industries [2][14]. - Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts [3]. 3.2.2 Metal - China implements export controls on multiple metal - related items and includes foreign entities in the unreliable entity list [4][14]. - London basic metals rose on October 9, 2025, with LME copper hitting $11,000 per ton for the first time since May 2024 [4]. - Spot silver prices reached a record high, and silver futures have risen by over 70% this year [5]. - The global refined copper market is expected to have a surplus in 2025 and a shortage in 2026 [6]. - High - grade copper premiums in Europe are expected to reach a record high in 2026, and Goldman Sachs raises its copper price forecast for 2026 [6][7]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Zangge Mining's subsidiary obtains new mining rights for associated minerals such as lithium [8]. - Copper production of some major mines in Chile decreased in August 2025 [8][9]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Russia destroys 60% of Ukraine's natural gas production capacity before winter [10]. - The US expects India to reduce Russian oil purchases [10]. - Saudi Arabia sets the official selling price of Arabian light crude oil to the US in November [10]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - The State Development and Reform Commission releases the application and allocation rules for grain import tariff quotas in 2026 [11]. - Pig prices have fallen below the cost line and may continue to decline [11]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 5 decreased by 6.62% month - on - month [11]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On October 9, 2025, the central bank carried out a 6120 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net withdrawal of 14513 billion yuan [12]. - The central bank conducts a 11000 - billion - yuan 3 - month买断式 reverse repurchase operation, with a net investment of 3000 billion yuan in October [13]. 3.3.2 Key News - China strengthens extraterritorial jurisdiction through export controls and lists foreign entities [4][14]. - Regulatory measures are taken to address price disorderly competition [2][14]. - The holiday consumption market has a good growth momentum [15]. - Policies are expected to support economic growth in Q4 [16]. - The bond ETF market has expanded significantly this year [16]. - Some securities firms raise capital through fixed - increase and bond issuance [17]. - Some bond - related events include debt maturity, new borrowing, and disciplinary actions [18]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Review - After the holiday, the bond market has a positive start, with yields mostly down and futures up [19]. - Different bond varieties have different price movements in the exchange and over - the - counter markets [19][20]. - Interest rates in the money market show mixed trends [20][21]. - Bond issuance yields and related multiples are announced [22]. - European and US bond yields mostly rise [23]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB depreciates against the US dollar, while the off - shore RMB appreciates [24]. - The US dollar index rises, and most non - US currencies fall [24]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Huatai Fixed Income believes that the bond market will be in a weak shock in October, and investors should pay attention to potential opportunities [26]. - CITIC Securities predicts the bond market trend based on policy and liquidity factors [26][27]. - CITIC Securities analyzes the impact of the US government shutdown and the expected decline of Chinese deposit rates [27]. - Hongze Fixed Income Ye Qing comments on the investment risks of science - tech enterprises [27]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - Multiple bonds are scheduled for listing, issuance, payment, and principal - and - interest repayment on October 10, 2025 [28][29]. 3.4 Stock Market Key News - A - shares perform strongly after the holiday, with some sectors having significant gains and losses [30]. - The Hong Kong stock market has mixed performance, with some stocks having large net purchases or sales [30]. - Stock ETFs have attracted over 1100 billion yuan in September [30]. - The online issuance of Shanghai ETFs will be optimized [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The gold price may experience a short - term decline due to the end of the Middle - East conflict and the full pricing of positive factors [12][13]. - The US dollar index is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [17][18]. - US stock index futures are likely to maintain a relatively strong trend after the impact of the government shutdown event subsides [21]. - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to maintain a short - term high - level trend, and it is recommended to allocate stock index futures evenly [26][27]. - Treasury bond futures are expected to oscillate and bottom out in the short term, and it is advisable to lay out medium - term long positions on dips [28][29]. - Palm oil prices are expected to continue to rise due to Indonesia's biodiesel policy [31]. - ICE raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar are expected to have a weak rebound in the fourth quarter [36][37]. - Steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate, and short - term callback risks need to be noted [39][40]. - The price of thermal coal is expected to continue to decline seasonally [41]. - Iron ore prices are relatively resistant to decline in the short term, but steel mills may face production cut pressure in mid - to late October [42]. - The price of red dates may rebound in the short term, and attention should be paid to the acquisition price in the production area [45]. - The spot price of polysilicon may remain flat, and the price of components is expected to fluctuate in the short term [47][48]. - It is advisable to go long on industrial silicon on dips, but be cautious when chasing highs [52]. - For lead, it is advisable to wait for a pullback to lay out medium - term long positions and pay attention to positive spread arbitrage opportunities [53]. - For zinc, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and there are positive spread arbitrage opportunities [55]. - For lithium carbonate, it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies and the reverse spread arbitrage opportunity between LC2511 - 2512 [57]. - The copper price is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and it is advisable to take a long - position approach [60][61]. - The downward space of the LPG contract is limited, and it is advisable to pay attention to opportunities to shrink PDH profits [64]. - The CEA price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [66]. - The natural gas price is recommended to be treated with a bearish mindset [68]. - The downward space of the caustic soda futures price may be limited [71]. - The pulp market is expected to oscillate weakly [73]. - The PVC price is difficult to decline further, and attention should be paid to domestic policy benefits [76]. - The supply - demand contradiction of bottle chips may accumulate in the fourth quarter, and there is pressure on processing fees [78]. - It is advisable to stop profiting on short positions of urea gradually [81]. - It is advisable to stop profiting on positions to shrink the styrene - benzene spread [83]. - It is advisable to short sell soda ash on rallies and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [85]. - It is recommended to pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on glass 2601 and shorting soda ash 2601 [86]. - The container freight rate index 12 - contract is recommended to be treated with an oscillating mindset [88][89]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The Middle - East cease - fire agreement and full pricing of positive factors lead to a high - level correction of gold prices. Gold prices may fall due to short - term profit - taking by bulls [12][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump may impose more sanctions on Russia, and the Fed is cautious about further interest rate cuts. The US dollar index is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [14][17][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - TSMC's Q3 revenue exceeded expectations. Amid the vacuum of macro data, the market is sensitive to AI industry news. After the impact of the government shutdown event subsides, US stock index futures are expected to maintain a relatively strong trend [19][20][21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3900 points, reaching a new high in nearly a decade. The stock market showed strong sentiment on the first trading day after the holiday, and it is recommended to allocate stock index futures evenly [22][26][27]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 612 billion yuan. Due to weak terminal demand, the bond market strengthened against the stock market. It is expected to oscillate and bottom out in the short term, and it is advisable to lay out medium - term long positions on dips [28][29]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia plans to implement the mandatory B50 biodiesel plan next year, which will tighten the global palm oil supply - demand pattern. Palm oil prices are expected to continue to rise [30][31]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's sugar production was strong in the first half of September, but the high - temperature and drought weather may lead to a decrease in production later. ICE raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar are expected to have a weak rebound in the fourth quarter [35][36][37]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The sales volume of heavy - duty trucks and the CMI index increased in September. After the holiday, the steel price continued to oscillate, and the market entered the peak - season demand verification period. Short - term callback risks need to be noted [38][39][40]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Thermal Coal) - The supply of thermal coal was not loose during the National Day, but the demand was seasonally weak. The price is expected to continue to decline seasonally [41]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Brazilian mining company Minerita signed a contract with Metso. Iron ore prices are relatively resistant to decline in the short term, but steel mills may face production cut pressure in mid - to late October [42]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - Red dates in Xinjiang are entering the drying period. The price of the futures main contract rose after the holiday. The current inventory is at a relatively high level, and the price may rebound in the short term [43][44][45]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - India imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese solar cells and components. The polysilicon spot price may remain flat, and the component price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [46][47][48]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Two departments aimed to regulate price competition. The seasonal inventory change of industrial silicon is not obvious. It is advisable to go long on dips, but be cautious when chasing highs [50][52]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead was at a discount, and the domestic lead inventory decreased. The price of lead is expected to oscillate and rise. It is advisable to wait for a pullback to lay out medium - term long positions and pay attention to positive spread arbitrage opportunities [53]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc was at a premium, and the domestic zinc inventory decreased slightly. The zinc price is recommended to be treated with a wait - and - see attitude in the short term, and there are positive spread arbitrage opportunities [54][55]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Zangge Mining's subsidiary obtained mining rights. The lithium carbonate market is in a situation of strong reality and weak expectation. It is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies and the reverse spread arbitrage opportunity between LC2511 - 2512 [56][57]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Indonesia introduced policies to help SMEs obtain mining rights, and Teck Resources lowered its copper production forecast. The copper price is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and it is advisable to take a long - position approach [58][59][60]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The price of Middle - East LPG changed, and some PDH devices had maintenance plans. The downward space of the LPG contract is limited, and it is advisable to pay attention to opportunities to shrink PDH profits [62][63][64]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price increased slightly. The carbon market supply - demand structure is balanced and loose, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [65][66]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Natural Gas) - The US natural gas inventory increased. The natural gas price is recommended to be treated with a bearish mindset [67][68]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong was adjusted flexibly after the holiday. The downward space of the caustic soda futures price may be limited [70][71]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp was mostly stable. The pulp market is expected to oscillate weakly [72][73]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC price decreased. The price is difficult to decline further, and attention should be paid to domestic policy benefits [74][76]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips was adjusted slightly. The supply - demand contradiction of bottle chips may accumulate in the fourth quarter, and there is pressure on processing fees [77][78]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The urea enterprise inventory increased. It is advisable to stop profiting on short positions of urea gradually [79][81]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports increased. It is advisable to stop profiting on positions to shrink the styrene - benzene spread [82][83]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of soda ash manufacturers increased. It is advisable to short sell soda ash on rallies and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [84][85]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The inventory of float glass manufacturers increased significantly. It is recommended to pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on glass 2601 and shorting soda ash 2601 [85][86]. 3.2.24 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The throughput of major ports increased from January to August. The container freight rate index 12 - contract is recommended to be treated with an oscillating mindset [87][88][89].

Group 1: Regulatory Changes and Market Impact - The Ministry of Commerce announced the inclusion of foreign entities, including anti-drone technology companies, in the unreliable entity list and will implement export controls on superhard materials and related items starting November 8 [1][1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration, has raised the threshold for tax exemptions on new energy vehicles, requiring plug-in hybrid vehicles to have an electric range of at least 100 kilometers starting January 1, 2026 [1][1] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a notice to maintain fair market pricing and competition, emphasizing the need for businesses to adhere to the principles of fairness, legality, and good faith [1][1] Group 2: Market Performance and Economic Indicators - In September, the sales revenue of China's top 100 real estate companies increased by 11.9% month-on-month, with a total sales amount of 252.78 billion yuan, reflecting a 22.1% month-on-month growth [1][1] - The price of spot silver reached a historic high of $51.22 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 70%, driven by heightened demand for safe-haven assets and supply tightness in the London precious metals market [2][2] - The German government forecasts a modest economic growth of 0.2% in 2025, with potential acceleration in 2026, although it faces external uncertainties from U.S. trade policies [2][2] Group 3: Corporate Announcements - Muyuan Foods raised its forecast for piglet output in 2025 to a range of 12 million to 14.5 million heads and announced a total dividend of 5.002 billion yuan for the first half of 2025 [4][4] - Ganfeng Lithium announced its complete integration in the solid-state battery supply chain and its commercial capabilities, along with the launch of a flight series power supply suitable for low-altitude economies [4][4] - Silyus signed a framework cooperation agreement with Beijing Volcano Engine Technology Co., focusing on intelligent robotics decision-making and control technologies [4][4]