主要货币表 | | 汇率 | 1M 升跌 | 6M 升跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 人民币指数 | 97.830 | +0.52% | +1.35% | | 美汇指数 | 100.229 | +1.67% | +0.11% | | 港币/人民币 | 0.914 | +0.29% | +0.89% | | 人民币/美元 | 0.141 | -0.09% | -1.41% | | 欧元/美元 | 1.152 | -1.06% | +2.09% | | 美元/日元 | 157.260 | -4.13% | -8.10% | | 英镑/美元 | 1.306 | -2.54% | -2.46% | | 美元/瑞士法郎 | 0.806 | -1.67% | +2.77% | 微信扫码关注【越秀证券】 越秀证券公众号 越秀证券研究订阅号 | 主要商品表 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (货币：美元) | 最新价 | 1M 升跌 | 6M 升跌 | | 布伦特原油(桶) | 63.910 | +4.99% | +0.28% | | 天然气(1mnBtu ...

Core Insights - The overall retail sales of consumer goods in China increased by 4.3% from January to October, with online retail sales growing by 9.6% during the same period, indicating a stable growth trend in the consumer market [1][2] Group 1: Consumer Market Performance - From January to October, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41.2 trillion yuan, with a monthly total of 4.63 trillion yuan in October, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.9% driven by the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival [2] - The retail sales of goods grew by 2.8% in October, with significant increases in categories such as communication equipment (23.2%), cultural and office supplies (13.5%), and furniture (9.6%) [3] - Basic living goods saw rapid growth, with retail sales of grain and oil increasing by 9.1% and clothing and footwear by 6.3% [3] Group 2: Service Consumption - Service retail sales increased by 5.3% from January to October, outpacing goods retail sales by 0.9 percentage points, with notable growth in dining, accommodation, and transportation services due to increased travel during the holidays [3] - In October, dining revenue grew by 3.8%, a significant acceleration from September, while inbound tourism saw 751,000 foreign visitors during the holiday, marking a 19.8% increase [3] Group 3: E-commerce Development - E-commerce in China has played a vital role in boosting consumption and modernizing the industrial system, with online retail sales growing by 9.6% from January to October [4] - Smart products and online services showed remarkable growth, with sales of AI glasses and smartwatches increasing by 23.1% and online service consumption rising by 21% [4] - The agricultural sector also benefited, with online retail sales of agricultural products growing by 9.5% and rural e-commerce sales by 7.5% [4] Group 4: New Consumption Trends - New consumption models are emerging, with sales of smart health devices increasing by over 20% and sales of new energy passenger vehicles rising by 7.3% in October [7] - Rural consumption is outpacing urban areas, with rural retail sales growing by 4.1% in October, indicating a vibrant market in lower-tier cities [7] - The government plans to continue initiatives to stimulate consumption and promote new business models to ensure stable market growth [7]

Core Insights - The U.S. stock market experienced its most severe intraday reversal since April, with all major indices closing down despite strong earnings reports from Nvidia and Walmart [1][3] - Nvidia's third-quarter revenue reached $57 billion, a 62% year-over-year increase, and net profit was $31.9 billion, up 65%, but the stock fell 3.2% after an initial rise [1][5] - Concerns over the sustainability of AI investments and the potential for an AI bubble have resurfaced, impacting market sentiment [3][6] Market Performance - The S&P 500 index initially rose by 1.9% but closed down 1.56%, resulting in a market capitalization loss of over $2.7 trillion [1] - The Nasdaq Composite index fell by 2.15%, marking a 7.9% pullback from its record high on October 29 [1] - Major tech stocks, including Amazon, Tesla, and Microsoft, all saw declines, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping 4.77% [2] Economic Indicators - The strong non-farm payroll report for September showed an addition of 119,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 52,000, which reduced the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December to below 40% [3][6] - The market is currently experiencing a shift from high-valuation tech stocks to defensive assets, as evidenced by Walmart's stock rising over 6% following strong earnings [4] Investment Trends - Notable investment firms have begun to significantly adjust their tech stock holdings, with Peter Thiel's fund liquidating its Nvidia shares and SoftBank cashing out approximately $5.8 billion in Nvidia stock [5] - Michael Burry disclosed a large short position against Nvidia, indicating a bearish outlook on the stock [6] - Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway initiated a position in Alphabet, valued at $4.3 billion, surprising the market given Buffett's traditional value investment approach [6] Technical Analysis - The liquidity of top buy-sell orders in the S&P 500 has decreased to about $5 million, well below the average of $11 million for the year, making the market more susceptible to volatility [3] - The upcoming expiration of options worth a nominal value of $3.1 trillion on Friday is expected to increase market volatility [7] - Key technical levels are being monitored, with a critical point at 6457 for the S&P 500, where a breach could trigger further selling [7]

美国劳工统计局周四公布9月非农就业数据。美国9月非农就业人数增加11.9万人，市场预估为增加5.2万 人。美国9月失业率为4.4%，预估4.3%。 费城联储行长哈玛克指出，就业报告"略显稳定"，基本符合预期，但强调高通胀仍是美国经济面临的现 实问题。芝加哥联储行长古尔斯比则坦言，利率在未来"将有相当大的下调空间"，但在短期内，他对12 月会议再次降息仍持谨慎态度。 市场对政策路径的预期也随之调整。根据CME"美联储观察"工具最新数据显示，美联储12月降息25个 基点的概率已降至39.6%，而维持利率不变的概率则升至60.4%。 谷歌推出新一代AI图像生成器Nano Banana Pro，谷歌Labs和Gemini的副总裁乔希·伍德沃德（Josh Woodward）称，Nano Banana Pro的功能超越了8月底推出的第一代产品。"它在信息图表方面令人难以 置信。它可以做幻灯片。它可以使用多达14个不同的图像，或者五个不同的角色，并保持角色的一致 性。" 美股方面，三大指数集体收跌，道琼斯指数跌0.84%，标普500指数跌1.56%，纳斯达克综合指数跌 2.15%。 大型科技股集体下挫，AMD跌超7%，甲骨 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced significant volatility, with strong earnings from Nvidia initially boosting market sentiment, but ultimately all three major indices closed lower due to renewed valuation concerns and diminished expectations for interest rate cuts [1][4]. Market Performance - The Dow Jones index fell by 0.84% to 45,752.26 points, the S&P 500 index decreased by 1.56% to 6,538.76 points, and the Nasdaq index dropped by 2.15% to 22,078.05 points [3]. - Nvidia's stock rose by 5% during the day but closed down by 3%, despite CEO Jensen Huang's comments on strong demand for the Blackwell chip and denial of an AI bubble [3][4]. Employment Data Impact - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for September increased by 119,000, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 52,000, while the unemployment rate stood at 4.4%, slightly above the forecast of 4.3% [3][4]. - This strong employment data has further lowered expectations for interest rate cuts, with the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December now below 40% [4]. Sector Performance - Walmart was one of the few bright spots, with its stock rising over 6% after reporting better-than-expected third-quarter sales and revenue, partly due to growth in its e-commerce business [4][5]. - The market is witnessing a shift of funds from high-valuation tech stocks to defensive companies, as indicated by Walmart's performance [5]. Technology Stocks - Major tech stocks experienced declines, with Nvidia down 2.97%, Microsoft down 1.60%, Apple down 0.86%, Google down 1.15%, Amazon down 2.49%, Meta down 0.19%, Tesla down 2.21%, Broadcom down 2.14%, and Oracle down 6.58% [5]. - Chinese concept stocks also fell, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 3.26%, Alibaba down 3.53%, JD down 1.68%, Pinduoduo down 4.31%, NIO down 6.09%, Xpeng down 5.10%, Li Auto down 2.32%, Bilibili down 4.54%, Baidu down 4.36%, NetEase up 0.40%, Tencent Music down 5.61%, and Pony.ai down 4.86% [5].

来源：喜娜AI 一、国际新闻 国际市场方面，美股周四呈现剧烈波动，三大股指收盘普跌，道指跌0.84%，纳指跌2.15%，标普500指 数跌1.55%，其中英伟达跌超3%，微软跌超1%，谷歌跌超1%，亚马逊跌超2%，特斯拉跌超2%，而沃 尔玛因Q3业绩好于预期涨超6%，甲骨文则跌超6%[1]。 盘中数据显示，纳指一度涨超2.5%，但随后持续回落至全线转跌，纳斯达克100指数跌幅扩大至2%，回 吐稍早2.4%的涨幅[2][3]。 热门中概股同样多数下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌3.26%，阿里跌超3%，拼多多跌超4%，携程跌超 3%，京东跌超1%，百度跌超4%，腾讯音乐跌超5%，小鹏跌超4%，理想跌超2%，蔚来跌超6%，满帮 跌超7%，哔哩哔哩跌超4%[4]。 大宗商品市场中，贵金属价格持续走高，现货黄金突破4080美元/盎司，日内涨0.08%，纽约期金同步突 破4080美元/盎司，日内涨0.49%[5][6]。 现货白银与纽约期银均突破51美元/盎司，日内分别涨0.06%和0.09%[7][8]。 原油价格则震荡下行，WTI原油突破59美元/桶，日内跌0.42%[9]。 加密货币市场大幅回调，比特币跌破87000 ...

2025.11.21 本文字数：1499，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 |第一财经 胡弋杰 市场风险偏好同步退潮。CBOE波动率指数收于26.42，为4月以来最高。美元指数上涨，黄金小幅回 落，布油与美油双双走低，比特币跌幅超过3.5%。美国10年期国债收益率下滑至约4.09%。 资产管理公司Nationwide Investment Management Group 首席市场策略师马克·哈克特（Mark Hackett）表示，这轮回调"更像是一次协调性的风险厌恶交易——从科技股到加密货币都在被抛售，投 资者对过高估值和杠杆暴露产生担忧"。他补充称："这是盘中开始的下跌，而不是开盘就承压，这说明 市场已经出现一定疲态。" 经济数据方面，在因政府停摆推迟近七周后，美国劳工统计局（BLS）终于公布了久违的9月就业数 据。数据显示，9月非农新增岗位为11.9万，远高于此前预期的5万，失业率升至4.4%，创2021年以来新 高。此前两个月的就业数据被合计下调3.3万，其中8月由原先的增加2.2万修正为减少4000人。 由于政府停摆导致统计工作中断，部分10月就业数据将与11月报告合并，而11月就业将在美联储12月议 息会 ...

Market Overview - On November 21, US stock markets experienced significant volatility, with the Nasdaq initially rising over 2% due to Nvidia's strong earnings report, but ultimately closing down over 2% as valuation concerns resurfaced and interest rate cut expectations were further dampened [1][3] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.84% to 45,752.26 points, the S&P 500 dropped 1.56% to 6,538.76 points, and the Nasdaq Composite decreased 2.15% to 22,078.05 points [3] Nvidia Performance - Nvidia's stock rose by 5% during the day but closed down 3%. CEO Jensen Huang emphasized strong demand for the Blackwell chip and denied the existence of an AI bubble, yet market concerns prevailed [3] - Analyst Jeff Kilburg from KKM Financial noted that Nvidia's momentum is being overshadowed by declining expectations for a December interest rate cut, which was previously anticipated [3] Employment Data Impact - The US non-farm payrolls report for September showed an increase of 119,000 jobs, significantly above the market estimate of 52,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.4%, slightly above the expected 4.3% [3] - This strong employment data has contributed to lowering expectations for interest rate cuts, with the probability of a December cut now below 40% [3] Retail Sector Highlights - Walmart was one of the few stocks to perform well, with its shares rising over 6% after reporting better-than-expected third-quarter sales and revenue, partly due to growth in its e-commerce business [3][4] Technology Sector Performance - Major tech stocks experienced declines, with Nvidia down 2.97%, Microsoft down 1.60%, Apple down 0.86%, Google down 1.15%, Amazon down 2.49%, Meta down 0.19%, Tesla down 2.21%, Broadcom down 2.14%, and Oracle down 6.58% [5] - Chinese stocks also fell, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 3.26%, Alibaba down 3.53%, JD.com down 1.68%, Pinduoduo down 4.31%, NIO down 6.09%, Xpeng down 5.10%, Li Auto down 2.32%, Bilibili down 4.54%, Baidu down 4.36%, NetEase up 0.40%, Tencent Music down 5.61%, and Pony.ai down 4.86% [5] Company News - Google launched a new image generation and editing model called NANO BANANA PRO, which is designed to produce clearer images and support more precise and readable text in multiple languages [5] - SoftBank plans to invest up to $3 billion to retrofit an electric vehicle factory in Lordstown, Ohio, to produce equipment for OpenAI's upcoming data center, making SoftBank one of OpenAI's largest investors [6] - Waymo, a subsidiary of Alphabet, announced the expansion of its autonomous ride-hailing service to Minneapolis, Tampa, and New Orleans [7] - Verizon announced it will lay off over 13,000 employees as part of a plan to streamline operations and reduce external labor costs, indicating that every department will undergo some level of change [8]

Group 1 - The current A-share market is in a phase of consolidation and preparation for future investments, with expectations of a potential upward trend in the near future [1][8] - The Hang Seng Index Company announced the results of the third quarter review of the Hang Seng Index series [2] - The U.S. stock market saw a collective decline, with the Dow Jones down 0.84%, Nasdaq down 2.15%, and S&P 500 down 1.56%, primarily driven by a drop in technology stocks [3] Group 2 - China's foreign trade has maintained stable growth despite external pressures, with a focus on supporting new business models like cross-border e-commerce and enhancing logistics systems [4] - The Chinese government is emphasizing the need for high-quality development in manufacturing and is increasing financial support for key technologies [4] - The China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association plans to release guidelines to address the challenges faced by the lithium iron phosphate industry, including price competition and industry standards [6] Group 3 - In September 2025, the domestic smartphone market shipped 27.93 million units, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, with 5G smartphones accounting for 86.3% of total shipments [7] - The total smartphone shipments for the first nine months of 2025 reached 220 million units, a slight decline of 0.3% year-on-year, with 5G smartphones showing minimal growth [7]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between "wool party" fraudsters and e-commerce merchants is damaging the integrity of the e-commerce ecosystem, leading to increased costs and a decline in consumer trust [1][2][3] Group 1: Impact on Consumers - Honest consumers are directly affected by the actions of fraudsters, facing unpleasant shopping experiences due to excessive return tags and hidden costs, which ultimately raise prices [1] - The rise in trust costs is evident as consumers encounter barriers that diminish their shopping satisfaction [1] Group 2: Merchant Challenges - Merchants are caught in a dilemma, losing approximately 5% of their sales to malicious refunds while being cautious not to implement overly strict return policies that could deter genuine customers [1] - The increasing operational costs due to fraud and the need to maintain customer experience are significant challenges for merchants [1][2] Group 3: E-commerce Trust System - The trust system in e-commerce is eroding as the tactics of fraudsters and defensive measures by merchants escalate, leading to higher transaction and platform governance costs [2] - Industry statistics indicate that e-commerce platforms spend over 10 billion annually on dispute resolution, highlighting the resource wastage and potential threat to the digital economy [2] Group 4: Solutions and Recommendations - To break the deadlock, a more robust credit system and a renewed sense of contract spirit in the digital age are necessary, emphasizing the real-world value of virtual transactions [2] - E-commerce platforms should collaborate with AI companies to develop detection tools for identifying fake images, such as embedding invisible digital watermarks [2][3] - Implementing a two-way evaluation mechanism for users with multiple malicious refunds can enhance credit records, as demonstrated by a platform's "Integrity Purchase" plan that simplifies return processes for honest buyers [3] - Differentiated return policies based on product characteristics should be established to protect consumer rights while preventing rule abuse [3] - Legal responsibilities for using AI to forge evidence should be clarified to increase penalties and deter illegal activities [3]