开源证券研报指出，华峰化学Q2业绩超预期，氨纶等景气低迷更显公司成本优势，维持"买入"评级。 2025年H1，氨纶在行业供大于求的基本面下，产品价格已处于历史低位水平，需求增速放缓，整体呈 现走量不走价的态势。氨纶行业短期存在产能出清、环保政策倒逼、行业优胜劣汰趋势加剧等压力，但 行业集中度进一步提升，行业头部效应越发明显。公司作为氨纶、己二酸行业双龙头，持续巩固成本优 势，周期底部彰显龙头业绩韧性。随着氨纶渗透率仍在持续提升，氨纶景气有望复苏，未来公司作为龙 头有望充分受益。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Huafeng Chemical's net profit attributable to shareholders in the first half of the year was 983 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 35.23%, primarily due to declining product prices [1] Revenue Analysis - The market prices of key products such as spandex and adipic acid fell year-on-year, reaching historical low levels [1] - Revenue from the three main business segments—chemical fibers, new chemical materials, and basic chemical products—declined by 9.43%, 8.82%, and 15.04% respectively [1] Profitability Impact - The decline in product prices led to a 2.75 percentage point decrease in the overall gross profit margin to 13.77%, negatively impacting net profit growth [1] Strategic Developments - The company is constructing a natural gas integrated project with an annual capacity of 1.1 million tons (Phase I) and a 240,000-ton PTMEG spandex industry chain deepening project, aiming to enhance cost advantages in upstream raw materials for spandex [1] - As a leading enterprise in spandex, adipic acid, and polyurethane raw materials, the company possesses significant scale, technology, and cost advantages, and plans to continue deepening its industry presence and strengthening its scale advantages [1] Investment Recommendation - The report maintains a "strongly recommended" rating for the company [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Huafeng Chemical (002064.SZ) is given a "buy" rating due to its strong Q2 performance and cost advantages in a challenging market environment [2] - Q2 performance exceeded expectations, highlighting the company's cost advantages amid a downturn in the spandex market [2] - The price spread of adipic acid increased quarter-on-quarter, while the spandex price spread remained stable, indicating the company's resilience at the bottom of the cycle [2] Group 2 - The spandex industry is facing severe oversupply, which may accelerate capacity clearance [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the financial performance of Huafeng Chemical for the first half of 2025, indicating a decline in revenue and net profit due to various external economic challenges [2][3] - The company reported a revenue of approximately 12.137 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.70%, and a net profit of 983 million yuan, down 35.23% compared to the previous year [3] - The chemical fiber segment generated revenue of about 4.215 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 9.43%, while the gross profit margin increased by 3.68% to 18.65% [2] Group 2 - The global economic environment is described as complex and uncertain, influenced by factors such as U.S. tariffs and geopolitical issues, which have weakened growth momentum [2] - The domestic economy remains stable, but external changes have posed significant challenges to domestic demand, impacting product prices and profits across the industry [2] - The report indicates that the industry is experiencing a cyclical downturn, leading to an oversupply situation and a decrease in product prices compared to the previous year [2]

Company Overview - Huafeng Chemical reported Q2 performance exceeding expectations, highlighting cost advantages amid weak demand for spandex and other products [2] - The company achieved revenue of 12.137 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 11.70%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 983 million yuan, down 35.23% year-on-year [2] - In Q2 2025, revenue was 5.823 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter decline of 7.78%, with a net profit of 479 million yuan, down 42.61% year-on-year and 5.02% quarter-on-quarter [2] Industry Analysis - The spandex industry is experiencing oversupply, with prices at historical lows and demand growth slowing, leading to a "volume over price" trend [2] - The average price of adipic acid in Q2 2025 was 7,235 yuan/ton, down 10.80% quarter-on-quarter, while the average price difference increased by 7.44% [3] - The spandex industry has faced negative gross margins for over two years, with recent production halts indicating a potential acceleration in capacity reduction [4] Future Outlook - The company maintains its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 2.474 billion, 3.110 billion, and 3.822 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.50, 0.63, and 0.77 yuan [2] - Current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 15.8, 12.6, and 10.3 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, supporting a "buy" rating [2] - The industry is expected to see a recovery in spandex prices as capacity exits the market, benefiting leading companies like Huafeng [4]

基础化工/化学纤维 华峰化学（002064.SZ） 业绩符合预期，氨纶等景气低迷更显公司成本优势 2025 年 08 月 12 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/8/12 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 7.90 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 9.24/6.41 | | 总市值(亿元) | 392.04 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 390.94 | | 总股本(亿股) | 49.63 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 49.49 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 35.24 | 股价走势图 | | | | jinyiteng@kysec.cn | zhangxiaofeng@kysec.cn | songzirong@kysec.cn | | --- | --- | --- | | 证书编号：S0790520020002 | 证书编号：S0790522080003 | 证书编号：S0790525070002 | 数据来源：聚源 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 华峰化学 沪深300 相 ...

Economic News - The US and China have agreed to suspend the implementation of mutual 24% tariffs for 90 days starting from August 12, 2025, while retaining a remaining 10% tariff on certain goods [1][1] - The Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank have introduced a personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy effective from September 1, 2025, to August 31, 2026, covering various consumer expenditures [1][1] - The Ministry of Commerce has initiated anti-dumping investigations on imported canola seeds from Canada and halogenated butyl rubber from Canada, Japan, and India, indicating potential trade tensions [1][1] Company Insights - The report highlights that Zhongchong Co., Ltd. (002891.SZ) achieved a revenue of 2.432 billion yuan in H1 2025, marking a 24.32% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of 203 million yuan, up 42.56% [5][6] - The company has expanded its overseas operations, particularly in North America, with significant investments in production capacity, including a new plant in Canada and a factory in Mexico [5][6] - Domestic revenue for Zhongchong Co., Ltd. reached 857 million yuan, a 38.89% increase, driven by a strong performance in its proprietary pet food brands [7][7] Financial Performance - Zhongchong Co., Ltd. reported a gross margin of 31.38% in H1 2025, an increase of 3.41 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin rose to 9.16% [6][6] - The company’s expenses increased, with total expense ratios rising by 3.12 percentage points due to higher marketing and personnel costs [6][6] Investment Outlook - The report maintains a strong buy recommendation for Zhongchong Co., Ltd., forecasting net profits of 449 million yuan, 572 million yuan, and 734 million yuan for 2025 to 2027, with corresponding EPS of 1.53, 1.95, and 2.49 yuan [7][7] - The company is expected to benefit from its overseas supply chain and the growth of its domestic brands, positioning it well for future performance [7][7] Industry Analysis - Huafeng Chemical (002064.SZ) reported a revenue of 12.137 billion yuan in H1 2025, down 11.70% year-on-year, with a net profit of 983 million yuan, a decrease of 35.23% [9][9] - The decline in revenue is attributed to falling prices of key products such as spandex and adipic acid, which have reached historical lows [10][10] - The company is expanding its production capacity in the polyurethane sector, aiming to enhance its competitive edge [11][11] Future Projections - Huafeng Chemical is projected to maintain net profits of 2.133 billion yuan, 2.403 billion yuan, and 2.664 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with EPS of 0.43, 0.48, and 0.54 yuan [12][12] - The company is focusing on vertical integration by investing in upstream raw material projects to improve cost efficiency [11][11]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the resilience of viscose short fiber demand despite tariff disputes, with projected consumption growth in 2023 and 2024, and a minimal decline in H1 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Consumption and Demand - The apparent consumption of viscose short fiber is projected to be 3.81 million tons in 2023 and 4.09 million tons in 2024, representing year-on-year increases of 9.74% and 7.28% respectively [1][2]. - In H1 2025, the apparent consumption is expected to be 1.96 million tons, with a slight year-on-year decline of only 1.00%, indicating strong demand resilience [1][2]. Group 2: Technology and Market Trends - The rapid development of vortex spinning technology is anticipated to drive continued growth in viscose short fiber demand, with its market share expected to increase from 10% to 25% [2]. - Vortex spinning technology is particularly suited for chemical fibers, showing significant achievements, although it faces challenges in natural fiber applications [2]. Group 3: Production Capacity and Utilization - Effective production capacity for viscose short fiber is projected at 5.07 million tons in 2023 and 4.885 million tons in 2024, with capacity utilization rates of 77.1% and 84.3% respectively [3]. - As of June 2025, nominal capacity is expected to be 5.16 million tons, with effective capacity at 4.935 million tons and a utilization rate of 81.5% [3]. - The industry is characterized by high concentration, with the top three companies holding a combined market share of 69.77% [3]. Group 4: Inventory and Pricing Trends - As of August 8, 2025, the inventory level for viscose short fiber is reported at 169,700 tons, equating to only 10.9 days of supply, indicating a low inventory level historically [4][5]. - The industry operating rate is at a high of 85.9%, and prices for viscose short fiber have shown an upward trend, with a recent price increase of approximately 150 yuan per ton [5]. Group 5: Market Outlook - The upcoming peak seasons for textile and apparel, along with a temporary suspension of tariffs, are expected to boost demand for viscose short fiber [5]. - The report recommends focusing on companies like Sanyou Chemical, which are likely to benefit from these market dynamics [6].

Group 1 - The chemical fiber sector experienced a decline of 0.63% on August 12, with C Tianfu Long leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3665.92, up 0.5%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11351.63, up 0.53% [1] - Key stocks in the chemical fiber sector showed varied performance, with Hui Long New Materials rising by 4.56% and C Tianfu Long falling by 7.03% [1][2] Group 2 - The net outflow of main funds in the chemical fiber sector was 259 million yuan, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 221 million yuan [2] - The trading volume and turnover for key stocks varied significantly, with C Tianfu Long having a turnover of 908 million yuan [2] - Specific stocks like Bao Li Di and Hui Long New Materials had notable net inflows from retail investors, while others like Zhong Fu Shen Ying and Jiangsu Long Jie experienced net outflows [3]

Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for the current reporting period is approximately 12.14 billion yuan, a decrease from 13.74 billion yuan in the same period last year, representing a decline of about 11.7% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is approximately 983.31 million yuan, down from 1.52 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating a decrease of about 35.2% [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is approximately 904.49 million yuan, compared to 1.45 billion yuan in the previous year, reflecting a decline of about 37.8% [1] - The basic and diluted earnings per share are both 0.20 yuan, down from 0.31 yuan in the same period last year [1] - The weighted average return on equity is 3.66%, a decrease of 2.25 percentage points from the previous year [29] Cash Flow Analysis - The net cash flow from operating activities is approximately 1.35 billion yuan, an increase of 82.59% year-on-year [31] - The net cash flow from financing activities is -1.49 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.52 billion yuan compared to the previous year [31] - The net cash flow from investing activities is -536 million yuan, improved from -2.3 billion yuan in the same period last year [31] Asset and Liability Changes - As of the end of the current reporting period, accounts receivable increased by 31.45% compared to the end of the previous year, accounting for a 2.26 percentage point increase in total assets [42] - Fixed assets decreased by 4.14%, leading to a 1.35 percentage point decrease in total assets [42] - Cash and cash equivalents decreased by 5.48%, resulting in a 1.15 percentage point decrease in total assets [42] - The company's inventory value is approximately 3.87 billion yuan, representing 14.49% of net assets, with an increase of 1.54 million yuan [48] Shareholder Structure - The top ten circulating shareholders include new entrants such as the National Social Security Fund and Chen Linzhen, replacing previous shareholders [54] - The largest shareholder, Huafeng Group Co., Ltd., holds approximately 45.10% of the total shares, remaining unchanged [55] Valuation Metrics - As of August 11, the company's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is approximately 23.38 times, the price-to-book ratio (LF) is about 1.47 times, and the price-to-sales ratio (TTM) is around 1.56 times [1]