市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 09 日 星期五 研报精选 "五一"旅游市场平稳增长，长线游与入境游表现亮眼 家电行业 25Q1 基金持仓跟踪报告 交运行业 25Q1 公募基金持仓跟踪报告 | [Table_InnerMarketIndex] 国内市场表现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | 上证指数 | 3,352.00 | 0.28% | | 深证成指 | 10,197.66 | 0.93% | | 沪深 300 | 3,852.90 | 0.56% | | 科创 50 | 1,026.44 | -0.36% | | 创业板指 | 2,029.45 | 1.65% | | 上证 50 | 2,679.51 | 0.33% | | 上证 180 | 8,546.20 | 0.14% | | 上证基金 | 6,902.65 | 0.35% | | 国债指数 | 224.77 | 0.05% | | [Table_InterIndex] | 国际市场表现 | ...

丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨小熊电器（002959.SZ） [Table_Title] 营收稳健增长，经营质量持续提升 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年一季度公司实现营 13.20 亿元，同比增长 10.58%，实现归母净利润 1.30 亿元，同比 下降 13.96%，实现扣非归母净利润 1.24 亿元，同比增长 8.24%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈亮 SAC：S0490517070017 SFC：BUW408 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 小熊电器（002959.SZ） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 营收稳健增长，经营质量持续提升 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 公司发布 2025 年一季报：2025 年一季度公司实现营业收入 13.20 亿元，同比增长 10.58%， 实现归母净利润 1.30 亿元，同比下滑 13.96%，实现扣非归母净利润 1.24 亿元，同比增长 8.24%。 事件评论 风险提示 1、宏观经济波动带来需求走弱从而使得公司收入回 ...

Group 1: Impact of Tariffs on Guangdong Industries - Since April, the U.S. has imposed tariffs that have significantly impacted global trade, prompting Guangdong, China's largest economy and foreign trade province, to actively respond [1] - Various industries in Guangdong, including home furnishings, small appliances, and textiles, are adapting by exploring new development paths and leveraging platforms like the Canton Fair [1][2] - Companies are focusing on high-end customized products, building their own brands, and enhancing bargaining power while tapping into domestic demand and expanding overseas production capacity [1] Group 2: Market Strategy Adjustments - Companies like Hengjia Craft Products have shifted their market focus to Europe, particularly France, achieving substantial order volumes by aligning products with regional cultural demands [2] - Guangdong small appliance firms are targeting Southeast Asia and the Middle East, with companies like Xinyuntao Technology actively seeking new customers at trade fairs [3] - The strategy of transitioning from single-function products to scene-adapted offerings is being adopted by companies to better meet market demands [4][5] Group 3: Domestic Market Exploration - Companies are increasingly recognizing the potential of the domestic market, with some, like Shenzhen's Innovation Micro-Yue, pivoting their business focus to local consumers [5][6] - The toy industry in Guangdong is noted for its robust supply chain, making it difficult for U.S. markets to shift away from reliance on Chinese production [6] - Water product exporters, such as Guolian Aquatic Products, are adapting by offering high-quality products at competitive prices to domestic consumers [6][7] Group 4: Overseas Production and Bargaining Power - The ceramics industry in Guangdong is undergoing transformation, with companies like Kabuqichino investing in overseas production facilities to mitigate tariff impacts [8][9] - Lighting companies are enhancing their bargaining power and exploring new markets while establishing overseas production bases to reduce tariff effects [10][11] - The trend of relocating production to regions like Southeast Asia is growing, with companies like Zhaoming Technology acquiring local firms to facilitate production and distribution [11] Group 5: U.S. Market Concerns - U.S. businesses are increasingly anxious about the impact of tariffs, with associations warning that the new policies could destabilize local economies reliant on Chinese imports [12][14] - The wedding dress industry in the U.S. is particularly affected, with a significant portion of production occurring in China, leading to increased costs and supply chain delays [13][14] - The overall sentiment among U.S. retailers and consumers indicates a growing realization of the interdependence between U.S. and Chinese industries, emphasizing the unstoppable trend of economic globalization [14]

5月8日，和讯投顾吴嘉仪称，有投资者问明天周五是否要上车，毕竟节后大盘连涨三天冲击3400点。回 顾盘面，昨天高开低走，今天低开高走，主力操作令人捉摸不透，这种过山车行情是否意味着后续暴跌 将至？目前盘面已现巨变，散户调整时间紧迫。尤其有一个新方向被大资金抢筹800亿，而主线机器人 和消费却表现平平，银行缩量上涨再次拉红指数，这究竟是某股势力掩护主力出逃，还是开启震仓模式 甩开散户？若投资者不明真相追高或踏空着急上车。先看指数情况，昨天最高点3356，今天最高点 3359，说明3355附近抛压较大，这也是主力昨天高开砸盘、迟迟不进攻的原因，因此今天继续缩量2000 亿。主力火力不足，反弹终结，大盘即将大跌？ 吴嘉仪做出以下预判：其一，明天周五大盘将收小阳，深指和创业板指数将上涨超1%，盘中或有震 荡，有底仓的可高抛低吸，空仓的可大胆低吸；其二，周末将迎来中美小关税谈判，且中方在舆论和主 动权上已占优势，加之中欧联手，美方大概率落败，贸易修复方向或迎来资金追捧，出现阶段性上涨， 尤其是低价消费方向，如水果链、小家电、日用品以及服装、纺织、玩具等；其三，结构牛市为民企和 科技带来利好，今年将推出3万亿优质项目，民 ...

Core Insights - The Tianjin Beichen District Market Supervision Administration released the results of the 2024 quality supervision sampling for key industrial products, revealing that out of 60 batches tested, 57 were compliant while 3 were found non-compliant [3]. Group 1: Product Categories - The quality supervision sampling covered four product categories: labor protection products, ordinary children's toys (non-plush), electric children's toys, and small household appliances [3]. - Among the tested products, 57 batches were found to be compliant, indicating a high compliance rate of approximately 95% [3]. Group 2: Non-Compliant Products - The three non-compliant products included: 1. Fiberglass safety helmet from Linyi Jiayou Labor Protection Products Co., Ltd. [4] 2. Insulated gloves for live working from Jiangsu Tengri Technology Co., Ltd. [4] 3. Electric cooking machine (multi-functional meat grinder) from Zhongshan Xiuchuan Electric Co., Ltd. [4] - The non-compliant products were identified from specific vendors located in Tianjin and other provinces, highlighting potential quality control issues within these companies [4]. Group 3: Compliant Products - A variety of compliant products were listed, including safety belts, nitrile gloves, and electric kettles, with multiple vendors demonstrating adherence to quality standards [5][6]. - The compliance of these products suggests a robust quality assurance process among the majority of manufacturers in the region [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a solid financial performance for 2024 and Q1 2025, with significant growth in revenue and net profit, indicating a positive outlook for the small home appliance industry. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue, net profit attributable to the parent, and net profit excluding non-recurring items were 16.8 billion, 1.05 billion, and 1.08 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 15%, 8%, and 9% [1] - For Q4 2024, the figures were 4.1 billion, 270 million, and 290 million yuan, with year-on-year growth of 6%, 11%, and 48% [1] - In Q1 2025, the revenue, net profit attributable to the parent, and net profit excluding non-recurring items were 3.8 billion, 250 million, and 250 million yuan, showing year-on-year growth of 10%, 43%, and 15% [1] Sales Performance - In 2024, revenue from kitchen appliances, home appliances, and other products was 11.5 billion, 2.9 billion, and 2.1 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 16%, 17%, and 7% [2] - For Q4 2024, external sales and internal sales were 13.2 billion and 3.7 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of +22% and -4% [2] - In Q1 2025, external sales grew by 16% while internal sales declined by 5%, indicating strong overseas demand despite ongoing domestic market challenges [2] Profitability and Cost Management - The gross profit margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 was 20.9% and 22.4%, with year-on-year changes of -1.83% and +0.5 percentage points [3] - The company managed to stabilize its expense ratios, with significant improvements in sales and management expense ratios in Q1 2025 compared to the previous year [3] - The net profit margin for 2024, Q4 2024, and Q1 2025 was 6.3%, 6.5%, and 6.4%, reflecting a notable increase in profitability in Q1 2025 [3] Investment Outlook - The company is a leading exporter in the small home appliance sector, with a strong customer base and scale advantages, actively expanding its customer and product categories [4] - The projected net profits for 2025 and 2026 are 1.2 billion and 1.3 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 1.5 and 1.6 yuan, indicating a favorable valuation with PE ratios of 9.7 and 8.7 times [4]

每日晨报 2025年5月8日 银河观点集萃 责任编辑 周颖 ☎：010-80927635 网:zhouying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130511090001 要闻 4 月外汇储备规模环比上升 1.27% www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 ● 宏观:货币先行,多箭齐发。从政策要求来看,4月政治局会议要求加紧加快 既定政策的落实落地,一方面再度明确适时降准降息,另一方面财政工具加快 落实发行使用,二季度将迎来政府债供给高峰,货币政策配合的必要性亦进一 步提升。实际上，近年来，每一轮政策放松往往以"货币政策先行"为主要特 征。从上述角度出发,我们认为后续货币政策仍将呈现持续宽松的特征,降准 降息仍有空间。PSL也可能再度重启,新型政策性金融工具也有望适时推出。 0 固收:止盈情绪加剧,债市不空。债市怎么看?5月债市供给量偏高下,资金 面或维持宽松,此外关税压力下外需对宏观经济的实质冲击影响落地,短期债 市不空。考虑到十债收益率目前已接近前期低点,收益率下行最顺畅阶段或已 过去,预计短期债市仍以震荡 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has introduced a series of financial policies aimed at stabilizing the market and supporting export-oriented enterprises, particularly in response to the impact of new tariffs from the United States [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Policies - The policies include measures from the banking and insurance sectors to support foreign trade development [1]. - Specific support will be provided to listed companies significantly affected by tariffs, including assistance with equity pledges and fundraising [1]. - The government aims to enhance regulatory support while maintaining a balance in oversight to help affected enterprises cope with tariff impacts [1]. Group 2: Company Responses - Companies like Xinbao Co., a leader in the small home appliance sector, expressed optimism about the new policies, which are expected to alleviate some of the pressures from tariffs [1]. - Xinbao Co. highlighted that approximately 70%-80% of its revenue comes from exports, with a significant portion from the U.S. market [1]. - Other companies, such as an automotive parts manufacturer, noted that while they experienced short-term market fluctuations due to tariffs, their financial stability remains intact, and they are more concerned about rising business costs than liquidity [3]. Group 3: Industry Support Initiatives - China Manufacturing Network, a comprehensive foreign trade service platform, acknowledged the positive impact of the new financial policies on export-oriented businesses, while emphasizing the need for further evaluation of the policy details [4]. - The platform has launched initiatives like the "New Maritime Plan" to help small and medium-sized enterprises expand into emerging markets and has established a special development fund to support industries heavily impacted by tariffs [4].

出口链有哪些短期超跌及中长期机会？20250507 摘要 • 静态估算显示，利用 2018-2019 年数据计算得出关税弹性为 1.7，即中 美贸易额因关税每增加 10%而萎缩 17%。通过分析上市公司对美营收敞 口，结合营收下降与净利润下降系数 1.3，可评估各行业净利润受损情况。 • 部分行业如消费电子、厨电、工业金属和能源金属已现超跌，股价跌幅超 过净利润受损程度，估值显著下降。原因在于这些行业面临长期营收空缺， 需下调估值。 • 在维持当前 145%对等关税或更差情况下维持 125%对等关税加 20%分摊 抵消的情景假设下，各行业可能继续面临超跌风险，政策不确定性增加。 • 根据 232 调查结果，加征 25%关税（总税率达 45%）情景下，厨电、工 业金属和能源金属超跌明显，消费电子已被剔除。此为较为悲观的假设。 • 若中美谈判取得进展，关税退回至 54%水平并维持 232 调查相关品种的 豁免状态，目前超跌行业与现状相似，部分行业反弹空间较大。 • 最乐观情景下，取消 125%对等关税，仅加征 20%反倾销关税，且不新增 25%关税产品，小家电、厨电、消费电子、电池、通信设备、纺织制造及 部分工业 ...

寻找确定性——2025年5月策略观点 分析师：张宇生 执业证书编号：S0930521030001 2025年5月6日 证券研究报告 4、风险提示 2 核心观点 1 核心问题一：指数韧性来自于内部确定性。4月A股市场先抑后扬，赚钱效应表现一般。短期来看，外部情绪风险扰动最严重的时 候或许已经过去，内部政策与中长期资金的确定性是指数保持韧性的主要驱动因素。 核心问题二：未来还会有哪些变化？外部变化可能会趋于复杂。关税政策下美国经济和通胀均压力增大，同时面临美元指数持续下 行、美债到期规模新高等问题，此外本轮特朗普政府恐怕难以通过2018年的减税手段来对冲关税对美国内部的冲击，因此关税问 题后续变化值得期待。不过，关税之外，美国对华或许还有其他"遏制"手段，参考2018年，或许以科技、制造业管制和投资限 制为主。不过国内仍有政策刺激空间，关注扩大内需、鼓励外贸、刺激投资与地产等方向。未来市场的主导因素将从风险偏好逐步 转向基本面。 核心问题三：有哪些确定性主线？1）内需消费，扩内需一直是近期国内政策的重点，未来有望持续迎来政策催化，此外，消费行 业业绩整体更具韧性，建议关注家居用品、食品加工、厨卫电器、小家电等行业 ...