1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices rose and then fell, with domestic refined copper spot imports remaining in a loss state. The New York Fed's data shows that the manufacturing sector is in a contraction state, but the outlook for the next six months has significantly improved. In China, the November economic data indicates that exports remain resilient, but domestic demand is weak, highlighting the need for policy support. With the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting, there are macro - level disturbances, and short - term caution is advised [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina trended weakly, while aluminum alloy trended strongly. The end - of - year negotiation of new quarterly order prices for alumina is ongoing, and there is still downward pressure on alumina prices. With the Fed's interest rate cut implemented and the end - of - year macro - pricing almost in place, the market is gradually setting a new tone of weak supply and strong demand for aluminum prices next year. Coupled with shipping disruptions in Xinjiang and a decline in inventory arrivals, it is expected that the de - stocking process will continue, and aluminum prices will remain at a high level [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, both LME nickel and Shanghai nickel prices fell. In terms of inventory, both LME and SHFE inventories increased. The traditional nickel - iron industry has stable prices, and the stainless - steel market's trading atmosphere has improved. In the new - energy industry chain, the price center has been dragged down, and the demand has weakened marginally. Fundamentals are dragging down nickel prices, which are trending weakly [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Macro data shows a contraction in the US manufacturing sector, but an improved outlook. In China, domestic demand is weak. LME copper inventory decreased by 25 tons, COMEX copper warehouse receipts increased by 1995 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 9663 tons, and BC copper increased by 301 tons. With the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting, short - term caution is needed [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina trended weakly, with AO2601 closing at 2527 yuan/ton, a 0.75% decline. Aluminum trended weakly, with AL2602 closing at 21865 yuan/ton, a 0.11% decline. Aluminum alloy trended strongly, with AD2602 closing at 20945 yuan/ton, a 0.12% increase. The SMM alumina price dropped to 2790 yuan/ton. There is still downward pressure on alumina, while aluminum prices are expected to remain high [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel fell 2.22% to 14295 US dollars/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 2.15% to 112530 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 360 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 2622 tons. The traditional nickel - iron industry has stable prices, and the new - energy industry chain's demand has weakened. Nickel prices are trending weakly [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On December 15, 2025, compared with December 12, 2025, the price of flat - water copper decreased by 1320 yuan/ton, and the price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong decreased by 1000 yuan/ton. SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 9663 tons, and the active - contract import loss increased by 977.1 yuan/ton [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River decreased by 50 yuan/ton. SHFE lead warehouse receipts decreased by 1366 tons, and the inventory decreased by 2508 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: On December 15, 2025, compared with December 12, 2025, the Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices decreased. The SHFE aluminum total inventory decreased by 3635 tons, and the electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 1.2 tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 850 yuan/ton. The SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 2622 tons, and the social inventory increased by 2122 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The main - contract settlement price decreased by 0.4%. The SHFE zinc inventory increased by 793 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.44 tons [6]. - **Tin**: The main - contract settlement price increased by 0.2%. The SHFE tin inventory increased by 526 tons [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: The report provides charts of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025, showing the historical trends of these metals' spot premiums [8][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts of SHFE near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 are presented, reflecting the historical trends of these spreads [13][20]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are provided, showing the historical trends of these metals' LME inventories [21][27]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are presented, reflecting the historical trends of these metals' SHFE inventories [28][33]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel are provided, showing the historical trends of these metals' social inventories [34][40]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts of copper concentrate index, copper smelting processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin are presented, reflecting the historical trends of these metals' smelting - related indicators [41][46]. 3.4 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher in precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, and an outstanding metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange. He has over a decade of commodity research experience [48]. - **Wang Heng**: A finance master from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [48]. - **Zhu Xi**: A science master from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel [49].

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Q&A 近期债券市场表现偏弱的原因是什么？ 近期债券市场表现超出预期的疲软，主要原因并非基本面问题。尽管上周的中 央经济工作会议和最新发布的经济数据对债市相对积极，例如投资和社会消费 品零售总额都有明显下滑，PPI 数据也低于预期。此外，会议提到货币政策有 降准降息的可能性，这些因素本应对短期市场形成支撑。然而，债市依然疲软， 更多是由于机构行为层面的影响。例如银行在久期考核指标压力下出现抛盘， 以及保险公司在大类资产配置上向权益类资产偏移。这些因素导致超长债供需 结构不被看好。此外，交易盘在市场偏弱过程中进行止盈或因赎回带来的被动 抛售压力，也是重要因素。 固收-年末波动，如何应对 20251215 摘要 四季度债市疲软受机构行为影响，银行久期考核压力和保险公司资产配 置偏移导致超长债供需结构不佳，交易盘止盈和赎回压力亦是重要因素。 当前债券市场供需结构相对均衡，但银行久期指标限额持续存在。公募 基金对超长端品种态度谨慎，交易盘对行情弱势判断以及前期久期过长 修正导致技术层面超调。 预计 2026 年保险新增配置超长债需求偏弱，占比可能回到 20%左右， 30-10 期限利差波动范围约为 30~50 个 B ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/12/16 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/12/09 110 4266 115035 29531 -838.94 -8.32 40.0 46.0 0.00 165675 63100 2025/12/10 35 4271 115035 28931 -1168.76 -70.55 41.0 48.0 11.69 164975 65400 2025/12/11 5 4282 115035 31461 -1540.94 -17.07 41.0 48.0 24.76 165850 66650 2025/12/12 -15 4927 115035 32563 -1469.82 -364.76 41.0 47.0 20.69 165900 66000 2025/12/15 30 4637 115035 42226 -1177.97 -249.44 42.0 48.0 -4.39 165875 65400 变化 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-12-16 美联储降息预期出现反复，基本金属或 转为震荡整固 有⾊观点：美联储降息预期出现反复，基本⾦属或转为震荡整固 交易逻辑：12月美联储利率决议符合预期，美联储调降明年降息次数，但 将购买国债，实际动作较为积极，并且鲍威尔排除了明年加息的可能性； 12月10-11日中央经济工作会议召开，定调较为积极，继续"国补"，国 内消费预期有望改善，整体上看，宏观面预期偏正面，但上周末前美联储 官员回怼特朗普政府，投资者对美联储降息预期出现反复。原料端延续偏 紧局面，并逐步往冶炼端传导，供应端收缩风险仍然存在。终端略偏弱， 12月初汽车销售延续放缓，12月空调排产降幅扩大，2026年1-2月排产预 计改善，基本金属现实供需改善放缓，但预期偏紧。整体来看，中短期， 供应扰动担忧继续支撑价格，中央经济工作会议定调积极，需求预期改善 有望提振基本金属，但高价对消费抑制及美联储降息预期反复对价格进一 步涨势构成约束，可继续关注铜铝锡低吸做多机会；长期，国内潜在增量 刺激政策预期仍在，并且铜铝锡供应扰动问题仍在，供需仍有趋紧预期， 看好铜 ...

张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 有色金属日报 2025-12-16 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 【行情资讯】 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 贵金属走强带动情绪面回暖，铜价冲高，昨日伦铜 3M 合约收涨 1.16%至 11686 美元/吨，沪铜主力合 约收至 92480 元/吨。LME 铜库存减少 25 至 165875 吨，注销仓单比例下滑，Cash/3M 升贴水下滑。 国内电解铜社会库存小幅增加，保税区库存较上周四小幅减少，上期所日度仓单增加 ...

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智通财经APP讯，中矿资源(002738.SZ)公告，于纳米比亚当地时间2025年12月15日，公司Tsumeb冶炼 厂多金属综合循环回收项目第一期火法冶炼工艺工程已经建设完毕并成功点火试生产运营，锗锌渣的处 理能力为8万吨/年，一期火法冶炼工艺工程将产出半成品含锗氧化锌烟尘。 ...

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（文章来源：证券时报网） 证券时报·数据宝统计，截至发稿，神火股份最新股价为25.30元，下跌2.35%，本期筹码集中以来股价 累计上涨3.18%。具体到各交易日，6次上涨，5次下跌。 公司发布的三季报数据显示，前三季公司共实现营业收入310.05亿元，同比增长9.50%，实现净利润 34.90亿元，同比下降1.38%，基本每股收益为1.5750元，加权平均净资产收益率15.34%。（数据宝） 神火股份12月15日披露，截至12月10日公司股东户数为65300户，较上期（11月30日）减少4000户，环 比降幅为5.77%。这已是该公司股东户数连续第2期下降。 ...