◼ 海运业首个履约年度碳账单约 24 亿欧元 2024 年，海运业在 EU ETS 覆盖范围内的经核查排放量为 0.9 亿吨，海运业首个履约年度的碳账单约 为 24 亿欧元。预计 2025 年海运业碳账单或达到 42 亿欧元；2026 年，EU ETS 对海运业温室气体覆盖范围 进一步扩展至甲烷和一氧化二氮，估算其对应的碳成本可能升至 62 亿欧元。 ◼ 集运碳成本对运费的影响权重日渐增加 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 10 月 20 日 集运碳成本更新：基于 2024 年排放数据的影 响重估——绿色金融联合研究（五） 唐惠珽 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021216 tanghuiting@gtht.com 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 报告导读： ◼ EU ETS 影响全球 13%的船舶、49%的集装箱运力 2024 年，实际受 EU ETS 管制的船舶数量约占全球船舶总量的 13%，其碳排放约占全球船舶碳排放总 量的 17%。近五成的全球集装箱运力在 EU ETS 的管辖范围内。 基于 THETIS-MRV 公布的 2024 年最新排放数据，本 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [8] Core Insights - The travel chain is experiencing a recovery in demand, with ticket prices showing a positive trend and a clear inflection point in revenue [2][5] - The shipping sector is witnessing a seasonal surge in freight rates due to peak season and geopolitical factors [6] - The logistics sector is seeing a year-on-year increase in unit prices for major express delivery companies, with a second round of price hikes initiated [6] Summary by Sections Aviation - Demand recovery is evident, with business travel gradually increasing since September, leading to improved revenue margins. The industry is expected to benefit from a tightening supply side and lower fuel costs, resulting in a resonance of income and costs [5][17] - The introduction of new aircraft is expected to remain slow in 2025, with engine maintenance squeezing capacity. The industry is projected to reach historical highs in capacity utilization [5][17] Shipping - Oil shipping rates are on the rise, with the average VLCC-TCE increasing by 8.7% to $86,000 per day. Geopolitical events and OPEC+ production increases are expected to support the oil shipping market [6][22] - The SCFI index for foreign trade shipping has risen by 12.9% to 1,310 points, driven by increased demand and tariff adjustments [6][22] - The BDI index for bulk shipping has increased by 6.9% to 2,069 points, supported by stable overseas mining shipments [6][22] Logistics - The express delivery sector is seeing a year-on-year increase in unit prices, with a second round of price hikes underway. The overall performance of the sector is expected to improve in Q4 and next year [6][36] - The average daily collection volume for postal express services has decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, indicating seasonal effects and price adjustments [6][36]

Core Viewpoint - The ocean is becoming a significant force for stable growth and a new engine for economic development in China, with a focus on marine economic development and ecological protection during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [2][3]. Economic Growth and Development - China's marine GDP surpassed 10 trillion yuan, reaching 10.5 trillion yuan, a 34% increase from the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan," accounting for 7.8% of the national GDP [1]. - The first self-operated ultra-deepwater gas field, "Deep Sea No. 1," has been fully operational since June 25, marking a key step in large-scale deep-sea oil and gas development [3]. - Marine oil and gas resources are expected to contribute over 70% of the domestic crude oil increment in 2024, with marine crude oil and natural gas production projected to grow by 4.7% and 8.7%, respectively [3]. Emerging Marine Industries - New emerging marine industries, such as marine engineering equipment, seawater desalination, marine medicine, and offshore wind power, are becoming new economic growth points [4]. - The market share of marine engineering equipment is expected to exceed 50% globally in 2024, with seawater desalination projects exceeding 2.9 million tons per day [4]. Technological Innovation - Technological innovation is identified as the primary driving force for marine economic development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [6]. - The establishment of the national marine comprehensive test site in Hainan aims to support deep-sea scientific research and technological innovation [5]. - The marine technology innovation index is projected to reach 135.2 in 2024, reflecting a 2.6% increase from the previous year [7]. Environmental Protection and Sustainable Development - High-level protection is essential for sustainable marine economic development, with significant efforts made in coastal restoration and marine ecological system improvement [9]. - China has signed blue economy cooperation agreements with over 50 countries, promoting practical cooperation projects that contribute to local poverty alleviation [9]. Future Outlook - The marine economy is expected to continue growing, with a focus on cultivating new productive forces and building a modern marine industry system [10]. - The total import and export volume of marine transportation is projected to grow by 1.9% in 2024, with trade with countries along the "Belt and Road" increasing by 6.3% [10].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government is delaying the implementation of port fees for foreign-built car carriers from October to December, which may act as a hidden tariff on automobiles for Japanese shipping companies and manufacturers [2][4]. Group 1: Port Fee Details - The U.S. will charge a port fee of $46 per net ton for foreign-built car carriers, with the actual collection starting on December 10 [4][6]. - The fee is based on the "net tonnage" of the car carrier, which for large vessels carrying 7,000 to 7,500 cars is approximately 22,000 to 23,000 tons, resulting in fees exceeding $1 million [4][6]. - The fee structure has changed multiple times, initially proposed at $150 per vehicle, then adjusted to $14 per net ton, and finally set at $46 per net ton [5][6]. Group 2: Impact on Japanese Shipping Companies - Japanese shipping companies, including Nippon Yusen, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, and Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, hold a 40% share of the global car carrier market, making them significantly affected by the new fees [7][8]. - Nippon Yusen operates 127 car carriers, with about 30% of their cargo related to the U.S. market, indicating a substantial impact on their operations [7]. - The company is currently negotiating with automobile manufacturers on how to share the burden of the new port fees [9]. Group 3: Broader Trade Implications - The U.S. port fee is part of a broader strategy to counteract perceived unfair support for the Chinese shipbuilding industry, which accounts for 50% of global shipbuilding capacity [11]. - The fee structure was initially aimed at ships built in China but has since expanded to include all foreign vessels, indicating a wider impact on international trade dynamics [11][13]. - China has responded with its own measures, including a special port fee on U.S. vessels and sanctions against U.S. companies linked to investigations into Chinese shipbuilding practices [13].

Core Insights - The A-share market saw a total of 44 stocks hitting the daily limit up, with a closing limit-up rate of 68.75% after excluding 7 ST stocks [1] Group 1: Semiconductor Sector - Huaten Technology had the highest limit-up order volume, with 340,400 hands, and announced plans to acquire 100% of Huayi Microelectronics for over 4.41 billion yuan [2] Group 2: Local Stocks in Fujian - The Fujian Marine Economy Industry Cooperation Innovation Development Conference signed 50 major marine economy projects with a total investment of 99.15 billion yuan [3] - Stocks such as Haixia Innovation, Pingtan Development, and Haitong Development saw limit-up, benefiting from local economic initiatives [4] Group 3: Coal Industry - Dayou Energy and Antai Group both hit the limit up, with Dayou Energy focusing on coal mining and processing, while Antai Group leverages local coal resources for its coking business [6] Group 4: Pharmaceutical Sector - Huabang Health and Chenxin Pharmaceutical both achieved limit-up, with Huabang Health being a leader in dermatological drugs and Chenxin focusing on innovative drug development [7] Group 5: Institutional Buying Trends - Tianji Shares saw over 200 million yuan in net buying from institutions, with East信和平 and Pingtan Development also among the top net buying stocks [8]

盘面上，光伏、培育钻、充电桩概念跌幅居前，军工、半导体行业回调；黄金股全线走强。 09:29 新股N道生高开超314%，现报24.77元。 | | 24.77 +18.79 +314.21% | | | | | N道生 1 立即 601026 交易 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SSE CNY 9:25:01 交易中 | | | | | 疑似减持受限 融 √ ○ + | | | 委北 | 60.94% 委差 | | 231 | Wind ESG评级 - | | | 详情 | | 卖五 | 24.86 | | 5 | रेस | 0.00% 120日 | | 0.00% | | 卖山 | 24.85 | | 13 | 5日 | 0.00% 250日 | | 0.00% | | 卖三 | 24.80 | | 50 | 20日 | 0.00% 52周高 | | 0.00 | | 卖二 | 24.79 | | 1 | 60日 | 0.00% 52周低 | | 0.00 | | 卖一 | 24.78 | | 5 | | 2024 20 ...

Group 1 - The company is holding its second extraordinary general meeting of shareholders in 2025 on October 28, 2025 [2] - The extraordinary proposal was submitted by the controlling shareholder, Ningbo Shipping Group Co., Ltd., to add a resolution for the election of directors to the agenda [3][4] - The board of directors approved the nomination of candidate Zhang Zikai for the board of directors during a meeting held on October 16, 2025 [11][12] Group 2 - The meeting will take place at the company's conference room on the 8th floor of the North Bank Wealth Center in Jiangbei District, Ningbo [6] - Network voting will be available through the Shanghai Stock Exchange's system on the same day, with specific voting times outlined [8] - The original agenda for the shareholders' meeting remains unchanged despite the addition of the new proposal [4]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a volume contraction, indicating a potential shift to a consolidation phase, with high dividend sectors showing strength while previously strong tech stocks are undergoing corrections [1][2][3] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3916 points, up 0.1%, while the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index fell by 0.94% to 1416.58 points [1] - Trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets fell below 1.95 trillion yuan, marking the first time since August 12 that it dropped below 2 trillion yuan [1] Sector Analysis - High dividend sectors such as insurance, banking, coal, and shipping are leading the gains, while some tech stocks, particularly in AI and solid-state batteries, are experiencing pullbacks [1][2] - The market is seeing a shift in focus from previously strong sectors like AI and solid-state batteries to more traditional industries that remain undervalued [1][4] Investor Sentiment - Market participants are exhibiting cautious sentiment, leading to reduced trading activity and a need for new leading sectors to emerge [2][3] - The current volume contraction is viewed as a potential indicator of market bottom, but requires consideration of other factors such as fundamentals and technical analysis [2] Future Outlook - The fourth quarter is expected to see a style shift towards high dividend sectors, contrasting with the stagnation observed in the third quarter [4] - As quarterly reports are released, sectors like banking and insurance are anticipated to show strong performance due to their high earnings certainty, while consumer sectors may also see some recovery [4][5] - The market is likely to experience a transition from growth to value investing, with low-valued sectors presenting opportunities for valuation recovery [5]

Core Points - The first iron-sea combined transport train carrying 3,000 tons of aluminum oxide from Vietnam has departed from Fangchenggang Station in Guangxi, heading to Shihezi in Xinjiang [1] - This new route opens a logistics fast track between Southeast Asia and the energy industrial base in Xinjiang, enhancing domestic and international dual circulation [1] - The initiative aims to provide strong transportation support for reducing logistics costs for enterprises [1]

Market Overview - A-shares continue to experience reduced trading volume, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3916 points, up 0.1%, and the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index down 0.94% at 1416.58 points [2] - Trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets fell below 1.95 trillion yuan, marking the first time since August 12 that it has dropped below 2 trillion yuan [2] Sector Performance - High dividend sectors such as insurance, banking, coal, and shipping have shown strong performance, while some previously strong tech stocks have experienced corrections [2] - The demand for adjustment in high-valuation sectors like artificial intelligence, solid-state batteries, and non-ferrous metals is noted, with traditional industries remaining undervalued and offering high dividend yields [2][3] Market Sentiment - Market participants are exhibiting cautious sentiment, leading to reduced trading activity as they await the emergence of new leading sectors [3] - The current market environment is characterized by a potential shift in market style, with high dividend sectors expected to perform strongly in the fourth quarter, contrasting with the stagnation seen in the third quarter [6] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the fourth quarter may see a style shift towards value sectors such as banking, coal, and liquor, which have shown strong performance, while technology and non-ferrous metals may continue to experience adjustments [6][7] - The focus on low-valuation, high-dividend sectors indicates a potential for valuation recovery, especially as the market's attention shifts towards policy expectations and valuation levels [6][7]