2025 年 5 月 15 日 银河观点集萃 责任编辑 周颖 ☎：010-80927635 网:zhouying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130511090001 要闻 每日晨报 宏观：CPI 尚未明显反映关税,但高频价格已经有所上行——4月美国 CPI 数 ● 据。市场对通胀数据反应有限,降息预期延后与通胀回升风险导致美债收益率 近期上行。我们认为长端美债收益率在财政赤字难以明显压缩、降息预期可能 延后等因素下短期存在回升的风险,尽管从全年角度来看,其依然有中枢降至 4%下方的可能,也不排除流动性风险导致美联储干预债市的可能。美元指数 方面,在美国经济放缓且最终仍需进行降息的情况下,其短期的反弹可持续性 同样不高,预计美元年内的中枢仍会稳定在 100下方。 CGS-NDI 跟踪：我国加速部署 5G-A 测试网络。我国运营商已经在国内 31 0 个省份部署了 5G-A 测试网络,5G-A 和 5G 相比,能够在容量、速率、时延、 定位、可靠性等方面实现大幅提升。 0 通信:经贸会谈卓有成效,出口链或将优先受益。经贸高层会谈卓有成效,预 计出口占比较高的光通信及物联网行业将 ...

Core Insights - JD's Q1 2025 revenue reached 301.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, marking the highest quarterly growth rate in three years, with service revenue at 58.8 billion yuan, up 14.0% year-on-year [2][10] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was 12.8 billion yuan, exceeding expectations by 43.4% [2][10] - The retail revenue of JD grew by 16.3% year-on-year to 263.8 billion yuan, driven by strong user growth and supply chain optimization [2][10] Revenue and Profitability - The group achieved a gross margin of 15.9%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, and a fulfillment gross margin of 9.3%, up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [3][10] - JD's retail operating profit margin improved by 0.8 percentage points to 4.9% [3][10] - The company continues to enhance its operational efficiency through its supply chain infrastructure and smart integration of business ecosystems [3][10] Business Development - JD's food delivery service surpassed 10 million daily orders as of April 22, 2025, indicating significant progress in this segment [3][10] - The company has repurchased 1.5 billion USD worth of shares, amounting to approximately 2.8% of its outstanding shares as of December 31, 2024 [3][10] - The expansion of the platform into new markets, including Hong Kong and international regions, is ongoing, with a focus on maintaining high growth rates in various product categories [10] Policy and Market Environment - The April Politburo meeting emphasized stabilizing employment and the economy, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption [4][11] - The government is expected to introduce flexible policies to address uncertainties in tariffs and enhance financial support for various sectors [11] - The focus on long-term structural reforms and support for consumer spending is anticipated to drive economic growth in the coming quarters [11]

Group 1 - Zhejiang Province's exports to Latin America increased by 21.5% in the first four months of the year, reaching 145.06 billion yuan, marking a historical high for the same period [1] - The province accounted for 15.6% of the national import and export volume to Latin America, with total trade amounting to 181.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 4.8% [1] - The number of foreign trade enterprises in Zhejiang engaging in trade with Latin America rose by 8.3%, totaling 32,500, with export enterprises increasing by 8.9% [2] Group 2 - Brazil emerged as the primary market for Zhejiang's exports to Latin America, with exports to Brazil reaching 35.79 billion yuan, a significant increase of 17.9% [2] - Zhejiang's private enterprises contributed 83.1% of the province's total trade with Latin America, with their exports growing by 23.3% to 128.76 billion yuan [2] - The province imported 12.65 million tons of metal ores and sands from Latin America, accounting for 26.3% of its total imports in this category [3] Group 3 - The Hangzhou Customs has been actively providing one-stop services to assist export enterprises in expanding their markets and improving efficiency [3] - Latin America is a crucial source of metal ores and agricultural products for Zhejiang, with imports of agricultural products valued at 5.2 billion yuan, representing 15.8% of the total imports in this category [3] - The province's imports of copper ore and its concentrates from Latin America accounted for 74.1% of the total imports in this category [3]

Market Overview - The A-share market saw most major indices rise last week, with the ChiNext Index experiencing the largest increase of 3.82% [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.77%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.04%, the CSI 300 by 2.30%, the SSE 50 by 2.28%, and the CSI 500 by 0.72% [2] - As of May 13, the margin trading balance in the two markets was 1,804.849 billion yuan, an increase of 8.630 billion yuan from the previous week [2] - The average number of investors participating in margin trading was 350,743, up 12.32% from the previous week [2] Industry Insights - In April, excavator sales reached 22,100 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 17.6% [5] - Loader sales in April totaled 11,700 units, with a year-on-year growth of 19.2% [5] - The cumulative sales of excavators from January to April were 83,500 units, up 21.4% year-on-year, with domestic sales accounting for 49,100 units, reflecting a 31.9% increase [6] - The average operating rate of construction machinery in the first quarter was 44.67%, with 12 provinces exceeding 50% [6] Company Announcements - China CNR Corporation disclosed recent major contracts totaling approximately 54.74 billion yuan [5] - Xuchang Investment plans to increase its stake in Huanghe Xuanfeng by 100 million to 200 million yuan [5] Stock Performance - From May 7 to May 13, the CSI 300 index rose by 2.30%, while the machinery equipment sector increased by 1.95%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.35 percentage points [5] - As of May 13, the price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the machinery equipment sector was 27.17 times, with a valuation premium of 128.62% over the CSI 300 [6] Future Outlook - The report maintains a "positive" outlook for the industry, highlighting the expected increase in demand for construction machinery driven by improved operating conditions [6] - Tesla's updates on humanoid robots indicate a clear path to mass production, potentially accelerating the development of the related industry chain [6] - The report recommends maintaining "overweight" ratings for companies such as SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion Heavy Industry, and China CNR Corporation [6]

Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the A-share market, with a focus on sectors such as technology and consumer upgrades as key drivers for medium to long-term investment opportunities [9][10][12] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing robust growth, with significant revenue and profit increases reported for major players, driven by advancements in AI and SoC technologies [21][24] - The food and beverage sector continues to outperform the broader market, with strong sales growth in snacks and dairy products, indicating a resilient consumer demand [19][20] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,403.95, up 0.86%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.64% to 10,354.22 [3] - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are at 13.82x and 36.92x respectively, suggesting a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments [10][11] International Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.67%, while the Hang Seng Index increased by 2.30%, indicating mixed performance across global markets [7] Industry Analysis - The semiconductor sector reported a 12.99% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q1 2025, with a notable 33.22% rise in net profit, reflecting strong demand and operational efficiency [22][24] - The food and beverage index showed a slight decline of 0.23% in April, but it outperformed the broader market, with a cumulative increase of 0.5% from January to April 2025 [19][20] - The photovoltaic industry saw a significant increase in installed capacity in March 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 124.39%, although the sector faced challenges with declining stock prices [30][31] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as technology, consumer goods, and renewable energy for potential investment opportunities, particularly in companies demonstrating strong fundamentals and growth potential [9][12][30] - In the semiconductor industry, continued investment in AI and SoC manufacturers is recommended due to their impressive growth trajectories and market demand [21][24] - The food and beverage sector remains a strong investment area, particularly in sub-sectors like snacks and dairy, which are expected to maintain growth momentum [19][20]

Core Insights - The fourth Changsha International Construction Machinery Exhibition is set to take place, featuring over 2,000 companies and more than 20,000 exhibits across a 300,000 square meter venue [2][3] - The exhibition emphasizes the theme of "strengthening, extending, supplementing, and upgrading the supply chain," introducing new zones for emergency rescue equipment, mining equipment, and transportation equipment [3][4] Group 1: Exhibition Highlights - The largest exhibit is a 4,000-ton all-terrain crane from Zoomlion, which is the world's largest in its category and capable of installing wind turbines at heights of 185 meters [3][4] - Major global brands such as Caterpillar, Levo Heavy Industry, and SANY are showcasing their flagship products, with SANY introducing hydrogen energy and new energy products alongside traditional offerings [4][5] - The exhibition features over 70 intelligent and green products from Shanhe Intelligent, highlighting the industry's shift towards innovation and sustainability [5][6] Group 2: Interactive Experiences - The exhibition includes interactive experiences such as AR operations and remote control demonstrations, allowing visitors to engage with advanced construction machinery technology [6][7] - Daily performances featuring excavators and other machinery will showcase their capabilities in a fun and engaging manner, including unique acts like excavators performing a waltz [7][8] - A dedicated food culture area will present local delicacies, enhancing the overall visitor experience with a blend of machinery and local cuisine [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Changsha International Construction Machinery Exhibition is set to showcase advancements in high-end, intelligent, and green construction machinery, featuring 1,650 global companies and 35 of the world's top 50 construction machinery brands, highlighting Changsha's significance as a major hub in the industry [1][5]. Group 1: Exhibition Highlights - The exhibition will focus on new-generation construction machinery, emergency equipment, mining machinery, agricultural machinery, and transportation equipment [1]. - Leading companies such as Zoomlion, SANY, and others will present their latest innovations, with Zoomlion showcasing over 100 pieces of equipment, including the ZE1350G mining excavator designed for large open-pit coal mines [3][4]. - SANY will feature 72 pieces of equipment, with 40% being electric products, while other companies like Sunward Intelligent Equipment will present nearly 60 advanced, intelligent, and green products, including over 20 new energy products [4][6]. Group 2: Industry Development - Changsha's construction machinery industry has evolved over more than 60 years, becoming a national advanced manufacturing cluster and one of the world's top three construction machinery hubs [5][6]. - The industry comprises 516 upstream and downstream enterprises, covering 85% of the national construction machinery product varieties, with a focus on collaborative development among manufacturers and suppliers [5][6]. - Changsha has established 25 national-level innovation platforms, fostering significant advancements in key components such as electric drive bridges and hydraulic pumps [6][7]. Group 3: Policy and Collaboration - Recent policies have been implemented to support the high-end, intelligent, and green transformation of the construction machinery industry, including the first national legislation in this field [7][8]. - Collaborative efforts between Changsha and other regions, such as Jiangsu and the Chang-Zhu-Tan area, aim to enhance cross-regional cooperation and resource sharing, promoting a more integrated industrial development [8].

Group 1 - The establishment of the Hong Kong Xiangsha Friendship Association aims to create a regular platform for economic and cultural exchanges between Changsha and Hong Kong [1] - In 2024, Hong Kong's investment in Changsha is expected to account for 68.7% of the actual foreign capital used in the city, with 659 Hong Kong-funded enterprises representing 46% of the total foreign enterprises [1] - Changsha County is recognized as one of the top five counties in China for economic development, with a strong industrial foundation and significant openness [1] Group 2 - The event promoted educational and industrial cooperation, including the introduction of the HKDSE program and partnerships between schools in Changsha and Hong Kong [2] - Hunan Mingjia Jewelry Co., Ltd. plans to increase investment in upgrading production lines and introducing advanced processing technology to enhance the high-end manufacturing of gold and jewelry [2] - In 2024, 195 new enterprises registered by returning Hunan merchants are expected to bring in investments totaling 898.5 billion yuan [2]

Investment Rating - The mechanical industry is rated as outperforming the market [6] Core Viewpoints - The mechanical industry is experiencing overall stable operations, with a focus on growth sectors such as humanoid robots [1] - In 2024, the mechanical industry achieved a revenue of 24,389.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.97%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1,291.17 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.47% [2][29] - The industry is witnessing a slight decline in profitability, with a gross margin of 23.50% and a net margin of 5.29% in 2024, both showing year-on-year decreases [2][31] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The mechanical industry is undergoing a phase of domestic industrial upgrading and accelerated overseas development, with a focus on high-end equipment and self-sufficiency [15] - The industry is expected to benefit from the recovery of demand and continuous operational improvements [30] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In 2024, the mechanical industry saw a revenue growth of 4.97%, with quarterly revenues of 5,069.57 billion yuan in Q1, 6,214.57 billion yuan in Q2, 6,037.44 billion yuan in Q3, and 7,068.38 billion yuan in Q4 [29] - The net profit for Q1 to Q4 of 2024 was 345.43 billion yuan, 441.15 billion yuan, 385.58 billion yuan, and 119.02 billion yuan respectively, indicating fluctuations in profitability [29] Sector Performance - The semiconductor equipment, shipbuilding, and usage equipment sectors showed high revenue growth rates of 32.90%, 23.08%, and 18.76% respectively in 2024 [3] - The engineering machinery sector showed marginal improvement in Q1 2025, with revenue and profit growth rates of 10.29% and 31.52% respectively [3] Investment Recommendations - Key investment recommendations include companies such as Huace Testing, Baichu Electronics, and Yirui Technology, focusing on sectors like humanoid robots and AI infrastructure [4][23] - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying structural growth opportunities in leading companies with core competitiveness [24][27] Future Outlook - The report suggests a focus on emerging markets and export growth, particularly in sectors like humanoid robots, AI infrastructure, and coal chemical equipment [24][26] - The mechanical industry is expected to benefit from ongoing demand recovery and operational improvements, with a positive outlook for 2025 [30]

至2025 年 5 月 21 日 采用上海证券交易所网络投票系统，通过交易系统投票平台的投票时间为股东大会 召开当日的交易时间段，即 9:15-9:25，9:30-11:30，13:00-15:00；通过互联网投票平 台的投票时间为股东大会召开当日的 9:15-15:00。 易所网络投票系统，其他相关事项参照公司 2025 年 4 月 30 日 刊登的公告（公告编 号:2025-030）。 四、其他事项 陕西建设机械股份有限公司董事会 证券代码：600984 证券简称：建设机械 公告编号：2025-036 陕西建设机械股份有限公司 关于2025年第四次临时股东大会的延期公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者 重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ? 会议延期后的召开时间：2025 年 5 月 21 日 一、原股东大会有关情况 股份类别 股票代码 股票简称 股权登记日 Ａ股 600984 建设机械 2025/5/14 二、股东大会延期原因 陕西建设机械股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于近日收到中国证券监督管理委 员会陕西监管局、陕西省人 ...