点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件： 新华社报道，雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程开工仪式7月19日上午在西藏自治区林芝市举行。中共中央政治局常 委、国务院总理李强出席开工仪式，并宣布工程正式开工。国家发展改革委、项目业主中国雅江集团、项目参 研参试参建单位代表中国电建、西藏自治区主要负责同志先后发言。 点评： 雅鲁藏布江下游水电站正式开工，总投资额约1.2万亿元 西藏水能资源主要集中分布在雅鲁藏布江、怒江、澜沧江和金沙江干流。其中，雅鲁藏布江流域干流水能资源 最丰富，理论蕴藏量近8000万千瓦。雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程位于西藏自治区林芝市，主要采取截弯取直、隧 洞引水的开发方式，建设5座梯级电站，梯级开发能够将梯级水库上一级发电后的尾水，流入下一级再次发 电，一股水 ...

人民网迪拜7月22日电（记者任皓宇）在中铁十八局迪拜公司迪拜山庄项目现场，钢筋工穆罕默德笑着展示手 机里的积分记录："上个月我发现脚手架松动及时上报，得了10分，兑换了一套新劳保服！现在工人们都盯着隐患 找问题，比安全员还积极。" 近日，中铁十八局迪拜公司迪拜山庄项目成功获得1250万安全工时证书。"在迪拜这样国际化的建筑市场，安 全是项目的生命线，更是企业竞争力的核心体现。1250万安全工时的背后，是近千名建设者日夜坚守的责任与担 当。"项目经理仰江龙在证书授予仪式上表示，"从进场浇筑第一方混凝土开始，我们就奔着建造精品工程的目标 努力。" 迪拜山庄项目坐落于迪拜城市版图核心区域的迪拜山庄地区。项目自启动以来，严格遵循26个月的合同工期 高效推进，践行"生命至上，安全发展"理念，努力实现"质量与安全双优"。针对中东地区高温、多风沙的特殊施 工环境，以及框架核心筒结构带来的高空作业多、交叉施工频繁等挑战，项目团队创新推出多项举措，打造全方 位、立体化的安全管理体系。 中铁十八局迪拜公司迪拜山庄项目成功获得1250万安全工时证书。中铁十八局迪拜公司供图 穆罕默德展示的积分正是其中的"安全质量计分超市"积分制。据 ...

Market Performance - A-shares experienced a strong upward trend on July 22, with all three major indices reaching new highs for the year. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3581.86 points, up 0.62%, with a trading volume of 840.6 billion yuan. The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11099.83 points, up 0.84%, with a trading volume of 1052.5 billion yuan. The ChiNext Index closed at 2310.86 points, up 0.61%, with a trading volume of 481.3 billion yuan. The total trading volume for both markets was 1.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 193.1 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. Sector Performance - Most industry sectors saw gains, with engineering machinery, coal, cement and building materials, steel, engineering consulting services, engineering construction, energy metals, and precious metals leading the way. Conversely, packaging materials, gaming, and banking sectors experienced declines [1]. Fund Flow and Investor Sentiment - The A-share market is witnessing a significant improvement in liquidity, with a notable increase in the financing balance, which rose by over 15 billion yuan, marking the highest increase since March 6. The total financing balance reached 1.904566 trillion yuan, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange reporting 959.609 billion yuan and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange reporting 938.876 billion yuan [5]. - The market's risk appetite has increased, with many institutions expressing optimism about future performance. The shift in investor sentiment is attributed to several factors, including the low valuation of "anti-involution" sectors and strong financial data from June, which supports mid-term profit expectations [5][6]. Institutional Insights - Multiple institutions, including Zhongjin Company, have noted that the A-share market is undergoing structural differentiation, with new sectors showing strong capital support. The focus is shifting towards technology and consumer sectors, which are gaining attention from foreign investors [6]. - The insurance capital allocation in A-shares is expected to increase from approximately 11% to 15% or higher over the next two to three years, with an annual net increase in allocation potentially reaching 300 to 500 billion yuan [3]. Regulatory Developments - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security is set to advance reforms in pension insurance, including national coordination and delayed retirement age, which may positively impact the market by enhancing fund management and investment capabilities [2].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown strong performance recently, with significant gains in the coal sector following a favorable policy announcement aimed at stabilizing coal supply [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On July 22, a favorable policy was announced, leading to a surge in the coal sector, with many stocks hitting the daily limit [3]. - The market experienced fluctuations but ultimately closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.62%, the Shenzhen Component by 0.84%, and the ChiNext by 0.61% [9]. - A total of 2,540 stocks rose, with 112 stocks hitting the daily limit, while 2,724 stocks declined [10][11]. Group 2: Policy Impact - The newly introduced "anti-involution" policy aims to regulate coal production, mandating that annual coal output does not exceed announced capacity and monthly output does not exceed 10% of the announced capacity [3]. - This policy is likened to previous supply-side reforms, which significantly influenced coal prices and market performance [7]. - Historical data shows that coal prices have dropped from a peak of 1,202 CNY/ton in 2021 to 658 CNY/ton, a decrease of 45.3% [7]. Group 3: Sector Analysis - Analysts from Zheshang Securities suggest that the "anti-involution" policy could reverse the coal industry's challenges, similar to past supply-side reforms that led to significant price recoveries [7]. - Long-term coal price improvements are anticipated if demand-side improvements follow, particularly with potential interest rate cuts and domestic stimulus [8]. - The demand for coking coal is expected to rise due to high steel mill profits, which are correlated with increased production and operational rates [8].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has reached new highs in 2023, with all three major indices showing positive growth, indicating a strong market sentiment and potential for continued upward movement [1][2]. Market Performance - As of July 22, 2023, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.62% to 3581.86, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.84% to 11099.83, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.61% to 2310.86 [2]. - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 193.1 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 2500 stocks rising and more than a hundred stocks hitting the daily limit [2]. Sector Performance - The infrastructure sector showed strong performance, particularly in cement stocks, which experienced a surge in limit-up stocks. Other sectors such as coal, organic silicon, pork, liquor, precious metals, and Hainan Free Trade Zone also saw significant gains [4]. - Specific stocks in the hydropower sector, including Poly Union, China Power Construction, and Jiangnan Chemical, saw nearly 20 stocks hit the daily limit [5]. - The coal sector experienced a notable afternoon rally, with companies like Lu'an Environmental Energy, Jinkong Coal Industry, and Shanmei International seeing eight stocks hit the daily limit [6]. Capital Flow - Main capital inflows were observed in the coal, machinery equipment, and precious metals sectors, while outflows were noted in pharmaceuticals, public utilities, and education sectors [7]. - Individual stocks such as Great Wall Military Industry, Kweichow Moutai, and Tebian Electric Apparatus received net inflows of 929 million yuan, 782 million yuan, and 578 million yuan, respectively [8]. - Conversely, stocks like Northern Rare Earth, Wolong Electric Drive, and Construction Industry faced net outflows of 883 million yuan, 701 million yuan, and 676 million yuan, respectively [9]. Institutional Insights - Guorong Securities suggests that the market's upward trend is likely to continue [10]. - Dexun Securities notes that the indices are steadily rising, showcasing a healthy structure of price increase and volume growth, with strong bullish momentum and improved market sentiment [11]. - Zhongtai Securities indicates that the current market sentiment is high, fueled by recent large-scale infrastructure announcements, and suggests maintaining a relatively optimistic outlook while focusing on sectors like robotics and low-altitude economy [11].

Market Overview - The market showed an overall upward trend with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a five-day winning streak and increased trading volume [1] - The coal sector experienced a sudden surge, with stocks like Shanxi Coking Coal and Shanmei International hitting the daily limit, driven by a notice from the National Energy Administration regarding coal mine production inspections [1][4] - Other sectors such as hydropower, civil explosives, engineering machinery, cement, and steel also saw significant gains, with leading companies like China Power Construction and China Energy Construction achieving consecutive gains [1] Stock Performance - A total of 2,540 stocks rose while 2,724 declined, with 114 stocks hitting the daily limit and 11 stocks hitting the lower limit [2] - High-profile stock Weiqi New Materials achieved a record of 10 consecutive daily limits, with a cumulative increase of over 519% [1] Fund Flow - Main capital inflows were observed in coal mining, liquor, battery, photovoltaic equipment, and energy metals sectors [3] - Conversely, there were capital outflows from IT services, automotive parts, software development, general equipment, and diversified finance sectors [3] Policy and Regulatory Updates - The National Energy Administration announced a crackdown on coal mines exceeding production capacity to stabilize coal supply and market order [4] - Shenzhen is expected to see reforms that will allow companies listed in Hong Kong to return to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [5] Market Outlook - China Galaxy expressed optimism about the market, indicating that the Shanghai Composite Index is likely to maintain above 3,500 points, suggesting a potential upward trend [2][7] - Long-term expectations for the coal sector remain positive, with anticipated strong coal prices and a peak demand season approaching [8] - Huazhong Securities forecasted that the technology sector will continue to perform strongly, supported by macroeconomic policies aimed at stabilizing the economy [9]

Group 1 - The overall performance of the Hong Kong stock market showed a "V" shape trend, with significant gains in high-speed rail, infrastructure, and hydropower concept stocks [1] - The Hong Kong Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (520990) experienced a rise of over 2% in the afternoon session, closing up 1.80%, marking a potential three-day winning streak [1] - Major stocks such as China Communications Construction surged over 8%, while China Railway Construction and China CRRC increased by over 6%, and other companies like China National Offshore Oil and COSCO Shipping also saw gains of over 5% [1] Group 2 - According to Wind data, the Hong Kong Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (520990) has seen net inflows for three consecutive trading days, accumulating over 400 million yuan in net inflows for the month [1] - Tianfeng Securities noted a recovery trend in the second-quarter orders of central state-owned enterprises, with China Railway's Q2 order growth rate at 20.08% year-on-year and China Nuclear Engineering's H1 order growth at 13.72% [1] - The positive order and funding indicators suggest an optimistic outlook for the acceleration of physical work volume in the near future [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a significant rally in state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and coal-related stocks, driven by strong performance in the coal futures market and expectations of price increases in coke [1][2] - Major SOEs such as China Communications Construction and China Railway Construction saw substantial gains, indicating a positive market sentiment towards these companies [1] - The coal sector is identified as a high-dividend area, with leading companies expected to attract long-term investment due to stable cash flows and dividend capabilities [2] Group 2 - The report mentions that the Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend 50 ETF (560700) has a market size of 682 million yuan, leading its category, and has shown a price increase of over 1% [1][3] - The High Dividend ETF (159207) has increased by over 15% since its launch in April, indicating strong investor interest in high-yield assets [1][3] - The report also notes that the Central State-Owned Enterprises Innovation ETF (515600) saw a price increase of over 2%, reflecting positive market dynamics for innovative SOEs [1][4] Group 3 - The coal industry is expected to benefit from government policies aimed at stabilizing growth, with large infrastructure projects like the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project set to support physical work volume [2] - The report emphasizes that the coal sector's profitability is stabilizing, and the risks associated with the industry have been sufficiently mitigated, enhancing its investment appeal [2] - The introduction of long-term assessments for insurance funds is expected to further boost the allocation preference for high-dividend assets, particularly in the coal sector [2]

编者按：7月21日，小摩发布研究报告指出，对于 2025 年下半年，预计在恒生指数上半年取得 18% 的 美元回报率且相对亚太除日本指数跑赢约 5% 之后，短期内会出现盘整，原因包括不确定的关税风险、 美联储不太可能降息的前景、不及预期的刺激政策以及 8 月疲软的季节性因素。这种潜在的疲软将是一 个买入机会，因为强劲的股票市场融资、南向资金流入以及稳定币领域的创新可能会推动 EPS 修正。 指数目标：将 2025 年底恒生指数的基准 / 乐观 / 悲观目标从之前的 11,600/12,400/10,300 港元上调至 13,000/14,000/11,000 港元，对应回报率分别为 2%/10%/-14%。 中小盘股首选：美高梅中国和中国建筑国际。 | RIC Code | Security Name | CN Name | GICS Sector | Analyst | JPM rating | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Large caps | | | | | | | 1299.HK | AIA Group Ltd | 友邦保险 | Financial ...

早盘气氛转淡，午后大反转！ 今天早上，A50盘中突然直线杀跌，由涨转跌，恒指、恒生科技指数也是双双转跌。从结构上看，银行股继续 成了空头主力，银行板块早盘一度杀跌近2%，厦门银行跌近4%，青农商行、西安银行、渝农商行等多股跌逾 1%。银行股杀跌也带动了红利指数和大盘权重指数的下行。然而，临近午盘时，中字头突然发力。午后，中 国交建率先涨停，并带动权重指数走强。 然而，临近午盘时分，中字头突然发力。午后，中国交建直线封板，中铁装配飙升逾14%，中国中铁、中国建 筑等快速上扬。这些个股的突然表现，带动A50及A股指数大反攻。 红利指数下午的反弹，煤炭股的贡献度很大。午后，山西焦煤、潞安环能、山煤国际等集体涨停。与此同时， 市场上也流传着一份国家能源局综合司发布的《关于组织开展煤矿生产情况核查促进煤炭供应平稳有序的通 知》，这份通知的内容可能是刺激煤炭大反攻的主要原因。 那么，究竟发生了什么？从消息面上来看，仍有一些积极因素催化。比如欧洲理事会主席科斯塔、欧盟委员会 主席冯德莱恩将于7月24日来华，参加纪念建交50周年的中欧峰会。美国财长表示，会尽快与中国进行谈判 等。从盘面上看，市场的涨跌存在明显的结构性特征。 ...