Supply and Demand Dynamics - Two industry categories are highlighted: "supply clearance" industries with significant inventory and capacity reduction, and "strong expansion" industries with high revenue growth and capacity expansion[2] - Industries exhibiting "supply clearance" characteristics include plastics, general equipment, gaming, agriculture, small metals, optical electronics, and communication services[2] - Industries showing "strong expansion" characteristics include other electronics, leisure food, motorcycles, precious metals, and shipping ports[2] Export Chain Analysis - Key export chain industries with high overseas revenue proportions include other home appliances, consumer electronics, shipping ports, small appliances, and engineering machinery[3] - Industries with high revenue exposure to the U.S. face uncertainty until trade relations improve, with potential valuation recovery for sectors like entertainment products and textiles if tariffs ease[3] High Dividend Yield Insights - High dividend yield sectors identified include coal mining, oil and gas extraction, refining and trading, shipping ports, and white goods[4] - Notable increases in dividend yields for transportation and consumer sectors compared to the previous year, particularly in shipping ports, logistics, and white goods[4] Market Strategy and Outlook - The A-share market shows resilience, with ETF net outflows indicating reduced support from protective funds, yet maintaining a steady upward trend with transaction volumes above 1 trillion[5] - The market is at a turning point, with key factors to monitor including U.S.-China trade talks and domestic economic indicators[5] - A broad fluctuation is expected in the A-share market, with strong support likely at lower levels, suggesting potential for increased positions if support levels are tested[5] Investment Recommendations - Balanced asset allocation is advised to navigate uncertainties, with a focus on technology sectors potentially regaining momentum[6] - Transitioning trading strategies from exceeding expectations to focusing on high-growth industries such as feed, motorcycles, plastics, and animal health[6] - Defensive assets like banks, insurance, and utilities remain viable as core holdings, with attention to sectors with rising dividend yields[6]

Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Two categories of industries are highlighted: "supply clearing" industries with significant inventory and capacity reduction, and "strong expansion" industries with high revenue growth and capacity expansion [2][15]. - Industries exhibiting "supply clearing" characteristics include plastics, general equipment, gaming, agriculture, small metals, optical electronics, and communication services [2][15]. - Industries showing "strong expansion" characteristics include other electronics, leisure food, motorcycles, precious metals, and shipping ports [2][17]. Group 2: Export Chain Analysis - Industries with high overseas revenue ratios are expected to maintain independent growth despite domestic demand pressures, including other home appliances, consumer electronics, shipping ports, small appliances, and engineering machinery [3][20]. - The report notes that industries with high revenue from the U.S. face uncertainties until U.S.-China trade relations improve, with potential valuation recovery for sectors like entertainment products, textile manufacturing, and lighting equipment if tariff issues ease [3][23]. Group 3: High Dividend Yield Industries - High dividend yield industries identified include coal mining, oil and gas extraction, refining and trading, shipping ports, and white goods [4][26]. - Notably, the dividend yield for transportation and consumer sectors has significantly increased compared to the previous year, particularly in shipping ports, logistics, and white goods [4][26]. Group 4: Market Performance and Strategy - The A-share market shows resilience, with a net outflow of ETFs indicating reduced support from protective funds, yet the market remains stable with transaction volumes exceeding 1 trillion [5][29]. - The report suggests a cautious approach to position management due to ongoing uncertainties, with a focus on potential support levels for the index [5][29]. - A balanced allocation strategy is recommended to navigate uncertainties, with a renewed interest in technology sectors, particularly in AI, and a shift towards high-growth industries such as feed, motorcycles, and plastics [5][30].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 11 年 月 日 建筑材料 预计建材需求旺季不旺，淡季不淡 2025 年 5 月 6 日至 5 月 9 日建筑材料板块（SW）上涨 0.92%，其中水泥 （SW）上涨 0.57%，玻璃制造（SW）上涨 0.38%，玻纤制造（SW）下 跌 0.39%，装修建材（SW）上涨 1.85%，本周建材板块相对沪深 300 超 额收益-0.07%。本期建筑材料板块（SW）资金净流入额为-0.14 亿元。 【周数据总结和观点】 本周国新办发布会发布一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期，总量方面，降 低存款准备金率 0.5 个百分点，下调政策利率 0.1 个百分点，地产方面， 降低个人住房公积金贷款利率 0.25 个百分点，5 年期以上首套房利率由 2.85%降至 2.6%，其他期限的利率同步调整，此外，会议还指出加快 出台与房地产发展新模式相适配的系列融资制度，助力持续巩固房地产市 场稳定态势。根据 wind 统计，2025 年 4 月地方政府债总发行量 6932.91 亿元，发行金额同比 2024 年 4 月增长 101.6%，截至目前，2025 年一般 债 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][23][28] Core Views - The company demonstrates balanced development through both organic growth and acquisitions, with its "One Body, Two Wings" strategy continuing to deliver growth [23][5] - The company maintains a leading position in the gypsum board industry, with significant contributions from its waterproof and coating businesses [23][8] - The company plans to establish a new industrial coating production base with an annual capacity of 20,000 tons, further enhancing its growth prospects [23][8] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 6.246 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.09% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.45% [8][3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 842 million yuan, up 2.46% year-on-year and 67.82% quarter-on-quarter [8][3] - The company reported a comprehensive gross margin of 28.94%, an increase of 0.29 percentage points year-on-year and 1.96 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2][13] - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 13.68%, slightly down by 0.27 percentage points year-on-year but up 4.01 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2][13] Cash Flow and Operational Efficiency - The company experienced a net cash outflow from operating activities of 222 million yuan in Q1 2025, compared to a net outflow of 26 million yuan in the same period last year [20][3] - Accounts receivable and notes stood at 5.11 billion yuan, showing a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, indicating effective risk management and high-quality development [20][3] - The accounts receivable turnover rate was 1.69 times, and the inventory turnover rate was 1.65 times, reflecting steady operational efficiency improvements [20][3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 2.61, 3.00, and 3.38 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 11.2, 9.8, and 8.7 times [4][23] - Projected operating revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 28.144 billion, 31.556 billion, and 34.810 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 9.0%, 12.1%, and 10.3% [4][23]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][23][28] Core Views - The company demonstrates balanced development through both organic growth and acquisitions, with its "One Body, Two Wings" strategy continuing to deliver growth [23] - The company maintains its leading position in the gypsum board industry while expanding its waterproof and coating businesses, contributing to overall growth [23] - The expected EPS for 2025-2027 is projected to be 2.61, 3.00, and 3.38 CNY per share, with corresponding PE ratios of 11.2, 9.8, and 8.7 times [23] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 6.246 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 5.09% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.45% [1][8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 842 million CNY, up 2.46% year-on-year and 67.82% quarter-on-quarter [1][8] - The comprehensive gross margin improved to 28.94%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.29 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.96 percentage points [2][13] - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 13.68%, showing a slight year-on-year decline of 0.27 percentage points but an increase of 4.01 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2][13] Cash Flow and Operational Efficiency - The company reported a net cash outflow from operating activities of 222 million CNY in Q1 2025, compared to a net outflow of 26 million CNY in the same period last year [3][20] - Accounts receivable and notes stood at 5.11 billion CNY, showing a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, indicating effective risk management and high-quality development [20] - The accounts receivable turnover rate was 1.69 times, and the inventory turnover rate was 1.65 times, reflecting steady operational efficiency improvements [20]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (Maintain) [6] Core Views - The company's performance remains under pressure, awaiting signs of a bottom [6] - The company is undergoing a transformation, focusing on "de-real estate + retail first" strategy to counteract pressures from the B-end market [8] - The company is gradually defining its second main business, aiming to create a synergistic model of "waterproofing + special mortar" to break regional market barriers and explore new growth areas [8] - Despite short-term pressures, the company is expected to enter a sustainable high-quality development phase due to strategic adjustments [8] Financial Summary - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 5.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 190 million yuan, down 44.7% year-on-year [8] - The company's gross profit margin decreased by 5.95 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to lower market demand and intensified industry competition [8] - Short-term borrowings increased by 56.44% to 7.216 billion yuan, while long-term borrowings rose by 50.81% to 1.392 billion yuan, reflecting the company's efforts to optimize its debt structure [8] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with net profits projected at 1.131 billion yuan, 1.617 billion yuan, and 2.028 billion yuan respectively [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][24][30] Core Views - The company demonstrated resilient revenue growth with a total revenue of 9.19 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.39%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 15.11% to 590 million yuan due to credit impairment and goodwill impairment [8][24] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3.2 yuan per share (before tax), with a total dividend payout of 493 million yuan in 2024, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 84.2% [8][24] - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence in rural areas and small B channels, which is expected to drive growth in the board materials segment and continue the upward trend in the whole-house customization business [12][24] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 9.19 billion yuan, with a net profit of 590 million yuan, and an EPS of 0.71 yuan per share. The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 127 million yuan, a decrease of 14.3% year-on-year, while the net profit increased by 14.2% to 101 million yuan [8][24] - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 18.1%, slightly down by 0.32 percentage points year-on-year. The operating cash flow for 2024 was 1.15 billion yuan, a decrease of 39.7% [19][24] Business Segments - The decorative materials and custom home segments generated revenues of 7.404 billion yuan and 1.72 billion yuan respectively in 2024, with the decorative materials segment growing by 8.0% while the custom home segment declined by 18.7% [12][24] - The board materials segment within decorative materials saw revenues of 4.77 billion yuan, an increase of 7.57% year-on-year, driven by multi-channel operations and expansion into rural markets [12][24] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend payout and continue to focus on shareholder returns. The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 is projected to be 0.96, 1.04, and 1.14 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 11.0, 10.1, and 9.2 [24][28]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][24][30] Core Views - The company demonstrated resilient revenue growth with a total revenue of 9.19 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.39%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 15.11% to 590 million yuan due to credit impairment and goodwill impairment [8][24] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3.2 yuan per share (before tax), resulting in a total dividend payout of 493 million yuan for 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 84.2% [8][24] - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence in rural areas and small B channels, which is expected to drive growth in its board materials and custom home furnishing segments [24] Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the decorative materials and custom home furnishing businesses generated revenues of 7.404 billion yuan and 1.72 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.0% and a decline of 18.7% [12][24] - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 18.1%, slightly down by 0.32 percentage points year-on-year, while the operating cash flow was 1.15 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 39.7% [19][24] Financial Forecasts - The company expects earnings per share (EPS) to be 0.96, 1.04, and 1.14 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 11.0, 10.1, and 9.2 [24][28] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 798 million yuan, representing a significant recovery of 36.4% compared to 2024 [4][28]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][33] Core Views - The company has actively adjusted its business structure to control risks, leading to a steady improvement in profitability and quality. Despite revenue pressure, the significant reduction in credit impairment losses has contributed to turning a profit [3][8][33] - The company reported a revenue of 6.83 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 14.0%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 44 million yuan, compared to a loss of 338 million yuan in the previous year [8][33] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.3 yuan per share for 2024, with total dividends amounting to 422 million yuan [8] Revenue and Profitability - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.4 billion yuan, down 6.1% year-on-year, with a net profit of 41 million yuan, a decrease of 23.2% [8] - The gross margin for 2024 was 21.8%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from lower raw material prices and internal cost reduction efforts [2][3] - The company’s operating cash flow improved significantly, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 320 million yuan in 2024, up 64.5% year-on-year [3][28] Financial Forecasts - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.18, 0.30, and 0.42 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 25.4, 15.4, and 11.1 [33][34] - The total revenue is expected to slightly increase to 6.86 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected growth rate of 0.5% [34] Cash Flow and Risk Management - The company has strengthened its cash collection and risk control measures, leading to a continuous recovery in cash flow. The accounts receivable and notes totaled 4.09 billion yuan at the end of 2024, a decrease of 70 million yuan year-on-year [3][28] - The asset-liability ratio stood at 64.6%, reflecting a manageable level of debt [3][28]

24 年收入增速+11.7%，维持"买入"评级 24 年全年实现营收/归母净利润 63.27/3.19 亿元，同比+11.66%/-18.65%， 全年实现扣非归母净利润 2.83 亿元，同比-19.17%。其中 Q4 单季度实现收 入 13.38 亿元，同比-13.53%，归母净利润/扣非归母净利润 0.09/-0.06 亿元， 同比-90.35%/-107.82%。在 24 年耐火材料行业整体运行偏弱、行业企业盈 利普遍下滑的背景下，公司总体运行平稳，展现出较好的韧性。考虑到下 游钢铁行业价格仍处在较为底部区间，下调公司 25-27 年归母净利润分别 为 3.3/3.8/4.6 亿（25-26 年前值为 5.9/6.8 亿），维持"买入"评级。 公司报告 | 年报点评报告 北京利尔（002392） 证券研究报告 行业偏弱运行，公司经营仍显韧性 各板块收入持续增加，其中原材料销售增长明显 分行业来看，耐火材料/其他（冶金炉料为主）业务收入分别为 44.7/18.6 亿，同比+1.3%/+48.3%。耐火材料中，整体承包/直销收入分别为 38.6/6.1 亿元，同比-1.2%/+20.4%，耐火材料直销中原料 ...