来源：市场投研资讯 本资料由招商证券研究发展中心汇编而成，仅供客户中的专业投资者参考。具体投资观点请以研究报告的完整内容为准，投研活动信息等请联系对口销 售。为保证服务质量、控制投资风险，敬请阅知页末的特别提示和一般声明。感谢您给予的理解和配合。 01丨 今日研选 策略：哪些细分领域供给充分出清？——A股2025年三季报系列之二（1111）【深度】 报告作者：张夏,陈星宇 核心观点： 供给出清：从资本开支增速、在建工程增速和历史分位数水平来看，供给充分出清或明显收紧的细分领域集中在：1）反内卷受益的资源品：化工（如煤 化工、聚氨酯、非金属材料）、建材（水泥制品、防水材料）、有色（铜、锂）、焦炭、铁矿石等；2）消费领域中的小额消费品（乳品、宠物食品、生 猪养殖、零食、品牌化妆品）、地产链（家纺、家居、个护小家电、照明设备）、医美耗材等；3）传统装备制造：摩托车、配电设备、逆变器、商用载 货车、印刷包装机械、仪器仪表、输变电设备等；4）部分电子硬件（集成电路制造、模拟芯片设计、光学元件、半导体材料、LED）；5）医药（疫苗、 中药、原料药）；6）新能源产业链（硅料硅片、蓄电池及其他电池、光伏加工设备、风力发电）， ...

Core Insights - The report highlights that the capital expenditure of non-financial A-share listed companies has continued to decline, with a negative growth trend since the end of 2022, indicating a weakened investment capacity and willingness among companies [5][6] - It is recommended to focus on sectors with sufficient supply clearance, as any signs of demand recovery could lead to accelerated improvement in supply-demand structure, stabilizing prices and enhancing capacity utilization and profitability [6][9] Supply Clearance Areas - Sectors with significant supply clearance include: - Resource products benefiting from anti-involution: chemicals (coal chemicals, polyurethane, non-metallic materials), building materials (cement products, waterproof materials), non-ferrous metals (copper, lithium), coke, iron ore, and oil & gas refining [4][9] - Consumer goods: small consumer products (dairy, pet food, pig farming, snacks, branded cosmetics), real estate chain (home textiles, home furnishings, personal care small appliances, lighting equipment), and medical beauty consumables [4][9] - Traditional equipment manufacturing: motorcycles, distribution equipment, inverters, commercial cargo vehicles, printing and packaging machinery, instrumentation, and power transmission and transformation equipment [4][9] - Certain electronic hardware: integrated circuit manufacturing, analog chip design, optical components, semiconductor materials, LEDs, and branded consumer electronics [4][9] - Pharmaceuticals: vaccines, traditional Chinese medicine, and raw pharmaceutical materials [4][9] - New energy industry chain: silicon materials, batteries, photovoltaic processing equipment, wind power generation, as well as gold, gas, and dyeing [4][9] Inventory Depletion and Profitability - Industries experiencing accelerated inventory depletion and marginal improvement in gross margins are expected to have high earnings elasticity and certainty with further demand recovery, including chlor-alkali, fluorochemicals, special steel, modified plastics, and membrane materials [4][6] - Industries with continued supply clearance and declining inventory levels, along with falling gross margins, are likely to see a profitability turning point, such as chemicals (soda ash, organic silicon, polyurethane), coking coal, thermal coal, and glass manufacturing [4][6] Recommendations - Focus on sectors with accelerated supply clearance and low inventory, such as polyurethane, vaccines, dairy products, residential development, non-metallic materials, printing and packaging machinery, instrumentation, raw pharmaceuticals, and integrated circuit manufacturing [4][6] - Attention should also be given to sectors with ongoing contraction in supply and improving gross margins, including branded cosmetics, plastic packaging, pre-processed foods, home textiles, chlor-alkali, coke, special steel, pesticides, cement manufacturing, membrane materials, coatings, abrasives, photovoltaic processing equipment, silicon materials, inverters, medical consumables, and traditional Chinese medicine [4][6]

Core Viewpoint - Shede Liquor's Q3 2025 report shows a revenue of 3.702 billion yuan, with a net profit of 472 million yuan, indicating a narrowing decline compared to the first half of the year despite significant industry pressure [1] Group 1: Industry Challenges - The overall liquor industry is under significant pressure, with weak demand in key consumption scenarios such as business banquets and holiday sales, leading to high social inventory and downward pricing pressure [1][2] - The industry is undergoing a deep adjustment characterized by "supply clearing," shifting from scale expansion to value enhancement [2] Group 2: Company Strategies - Shede Liquor is implementing a strategy of price control and inventory reduction, maintaining stable pricing for core products despite industry-wide pricing pressures [2][3] - The company is enhancing operational efficiency through organizational restructuring, flat management, and cost control, resulting in an 8.81% decrease in operating costs and a 13.07% reduction in management expenses [3] Group 3: Product and Market Development - The launch of the low-alcohol product "Shede Zizai" has been successful, aligning with new consumption trends and achieving significant market interest [4] - E-commerce sales have grown significantly, with a 40% year-on-year increase, becoming a key driver of revenue growth [5] Group 4: Financial Performance and Market Sentiment - The company reported a 16.46% increase in ordinary liquor sales, contributing to a stable market presence during industry adjustments [5] - Institutional investors have shown increased confidence, with several funds significantly raising their holdings in Shede Liquor, indicating recognition of the company's long-term growth potential [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - Shede Liquor's Q3 2025 report indicates a revenue of 3.702 billion yuan, with a net profit of 472 million yuan, reflecting a narrowing decline compared to the first half of the year despite significant industry pressure [1] Group 1: Industry Challenges - The overall liquor industry is under significant pressure, with weak demand in key consumption scenarios such as business banquets and holiday sales, leading to high social inventory and downward pricing pressure [1][2] - The industry is undergoing a deep adjustment characterized by "supply clearing," shifting growth momentum from scale expansion to value enhancement [2] Group 2: Company Strategies - Shede Liquor is implementing a strategy of price control and inventory reduction, maintaining stable pricing for core products despite industry-wide pricing pressures [2][3] - The company is enhancing operational efficiency through organizational restructuring, flat management, and precise cost control, resulting in an 8.81% decrease in operating costs and a 13.07% reduction in management expenses [3] Group 3: Product and Market Development - The launch of the low-alcohol product "Shede Zizai" has been successful, aligning with new consumption trends and achieving significant market interest, with over 12,000 orders within 36 hours of launch [4] - E-commerce sales have grown significantly, with a 40% year-on-year increase, becoming a key driver of revenue growth [5] Group 4: Financial Performance and Market Sentiment - The company reported a 16.46% increase in revenue from ordinary liquor sales, indicating stability in the market during the industry's adjustment phase [5] - Institutional investors have shown confidence in Shede Liquor, with several increasing their holdings, reflecting recognition of the company's long-term development logic [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The overall market experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 0.63% to 3961.62 points, while the liquor sector showed slight resilience with a 1.03% increase in the SW liquor index [1] Industry Summary - The liquor sector is currently in a "supply clearing" bottom adjustment phase, indicating a challenging environment for the industry [1] - The SW liquor index fell by 1.12% this week, reflecting ongoing pressures within the industry [1] - The third-quarter reports are expected to reveal certain pressures, which may accelerate the industry's clearing process [1] Company Summary - Kweichow Moutai closed at 1432.28 CNY per share, up by 0.39% [1] - Wuliangye Yibin closed at 118.88 CNY per share, up by 0.35% [1] - Shanxi Fenjiu closed at 194.50 CNY per share, up by 3.45% [1] - Luzhou Laojiao closed at 135.05 CNY per share, up by 3.98% [1] - Yanghe Brewery closed at 70.48 CNY per share, down by 0.48% [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific industry rating but highlights the performance of various sub-sectors within the food and beverage industry [7] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector is currently under pressure, with the SW food and beverage index declining by 1.02%, ranking 30th among 31 sub-industries [12] - The white liquor sector is in a "supply clearing" phase, with expectations of increased pressure in the upcoming quarterly reports, indicating a potential acceleration in industry clearing [16] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the new leadership strategies at Kweichow Moutai following a significant personnel change [16] - The beverage sector shows promising growth, particularly with Eastroc Beverage's strong performance in the first three quarters of 2025, achieving a revenue of 16.844 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.13% [17] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Performance - The SW food and beverage sector saw a decline of 1.02%, with notable drops in the white liquor, beer, and snack sub-sectors [12] - The top-performing sub-sectors included pre-processed foods, other alcoholic beverages, and meat products, with increases of 1.10%, 0.35%, and 0.33% respectively [12] 2. White Liquor Sector - The SW white liquor index fell by 1.12%, indicating a bottom adjustment phase [16] - The current price for Feitian Moutai is 1,720 yuan, down 30 yuan from the previous week, while the price for Pu'er Moutai is 8,155 yuan, down 5 yuan [16] - Recommended companies in this sector include Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, which are expected to perform relatively well during the adjustment period [16] 3. Beverage Sector - Eastroc Beverage reported a revenue of 16.844 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 34.13% [17] - The company also saw a net profit of 3.761 billion yuan, up 38.91% year-on-year [17] - Other companies like Jinzai Foods and Qiaqia Foods are facing challenges, with Jinzai reporting a revenue of 1.81 billion yuan, a slight increase of 2.1% year-on-year, but a net profit decline of 19.5% [17][19]

Group 1: Liquidity Analysis - The recent performance of the Hong Kong stock market has been negatively impacted by a stable US dollar index, leading to limited liquidity improvements [3][7] - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September are expected to significantly enhance liquidity in the Hong Kong market, potentially benefiting emerging markets [25][27] - A comparison shows that the A-share market has seen a more substantial influx of funds, particularly with a rapid increase in margin financing [17][19] Group 2: Industry Structure - The proportion of "hard technology" companies in the Hong Kong stock market is lower compared to the A-share market, with significant representation from banking and consumer sectors [8][27] - The upcoming IPOs in Hong Kong are expected to increase the representation of "hard technology" companies, which could positively influence the overall market index [34][36] - The performance of the Hong Kong market has been constrained by the lower weight of high-growth sectors such as semiconductors and electric equipment [30][31] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Key areas of focus for future investment in the Hong Kong market include AI applications, non-ferrous metals, innovative pharmaceuticals, and supply-side adjustments [9][36] - The AI sector is highlighted as a significant growth area, with potential for substantial market performance if downstream AI products achieve commercial success [37][39] - The non-ferrous metals sector, particularly gold, is expected to perform well during the Fed's rate-cutting cycle, historically showing positive trends during such periods [40][41] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a surge in outbound business development transactions, indicating growing international recognition of Chinese innovations [45][46] - Supply-side adjustments are anticipated in industries with improving demand and prolonged supply-side clearing, which may lead to a recovery in these sectors [49]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the A-share market strategy and the Volcker Model, which evaluates market performance through various dimensions including valuation, earnings, cycles, macro policies, overseas environment, and liquidity [1][3][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Volcker Model Components**: The model consists of six dimensions: Valuation (W), Earnings (E), Cycles (L), Macro Policies (C), Overseas Environment (O), and Liquidity (M). These factors collectively influence market performance, with macro policies and overseas environment primarily affecting valuation and fundamentals [3][5]. - **Asset Allocation Trends**: As per the report, when per capita income in China reaches $10,000, the proportion of non-financial assets will likely decline while financial assets will increase, particularly in fixed income and savings [1][8]. - **Corporate Lifecycle Stages**: Companies are categorized into five lifecycle stages: embryonic, expansion, high growth, maturity, and decline, each requiring different valuation methods such as PS, PEG, PE, and PB [1][10][11]. - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: Key indicators like GDP growth and CPI recovery are crucial for market and industry allocation. Adjustments in consumer sector allocations may be necessary if inflation expectations change in the latter half of the year [1][12]. - **Market Earnings Expectations**: The market earnings forecast for 2025 has been revised from 1% to 3.5%, based on macroeconomic indicators and industrial production data [1][15][16]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Impact of Population Cycle**: The slowing population growth in recent years has exerted pressure on income, indirectly affecting the performance of the A-share market [7]. - **Technological Cycles**: Different technological cycles impact various sectors, and market expectations play a significant role in assessing the prospects of technology sectors within the A-share market [9]. - **Monetary and Fiscal Policies**: The prolonged period of loose monetary policy has diminished its marginal impact on the market, while fiscal policy is gaining more attention, especially in light of external and internal economic conditions [14]. - **Liquidity Analysis**: Macro liquidity is assessed through both quantity (M1, M2, credit) and price (risk-free interest rates), which significantly influence stock market performance [19][20]. - **Market Bottom Indicators**: The assessment of the A-share market bottom in September 2024 was based on extreme turnover rates and low trading volumes, indicating potential recovery opportunities despite weak fundamentals [22]. - **Small vs. Large Cap Stocks**: Research indicates that small-cap stocks have outperformed large-cap stocks in recent years, influenced by macroeconomic expectations [26]. - **Industry Allocation Framework**: The GICS four-level industry classification system has been effectively used since 2013 to provide allocation recommendations, with outperforming sectors significantly beating the benchmark [27]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights and data from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the A-share market strategy and its influencing factors.

Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund Xingquan Global Vision Stock (340006) reported a profit of 20.16 million yuan for Q2 2025, with a net asset value growth rate of 1.82% and a fund size of 1.177 billion yuan as of the end of Q2 2025 [2][15]. Fund Performance - As of July 21, the fund's unit net value was 2.41 yuan [2]. - The fund's three-month net value growth rate was 11.43%, ranking 19 out of 61 comparable funds [4]. - The six-month net value growth rate was 9.46%, ranking 29 out of 61 comparable funds [4]. - The one-year net value growth rate was 16.73%, ranking 37 out of 61 comparable funds [4]. - The three-year net value growth rate was -15.60%, ranking 44 out of 60 comparable funds [4]. Risk and Return Metrics - The fund's three-year Sharpe ratio was -0.1241, ranking 45 out of 60 comparable funds [9]. - The maximum drawdown over the past three years was 35.97%, ranking 26 out of 59 comparable funds [11]. - The highest stock position was 92.23% at the end of H1 2020, while the lowest was 80.78% at the end of Q3 2022 [14]. Investment Focus - The fund management emphasized a focus on the technology sector, driven by government policies promoting technological innovation and new productivity [3]. - The fund aims to identify companies with high technological barriers and strong competitive advantages, particularly in sectors like smart driving, AI technology, and military electronics [3]. - The fund also seeks opportunities in companies that either reduce capital expenditures and increase cash dividends or actively develop new growth avenues to sustain performance [3]. Top Holdings - As of Q2 2025, the fund's top ten holdings included Ningde Times, Luxshare Precision, Sany Heavy Industry, Zijin Mining, Northern Huachuang, Aidi Pharmaceutical, Shandong Gold, Huaqin Technology, Electric Connection Technology, and Philips [19].

Market Overview - In the first half of 2025, the A-share market showed a differentiated pattern amidst internal and external disturbances, with the total A-share index rising by 5.83% [2][3]. - Small-cap stocks significantly outperformed, with the North Securities 50 index increasing by 39.45% and the Micro Index by 36.41% [2]. Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector led the industry gains with an 18.12% increase, followed by banking at 13.10% and national defense and military industry at 12.99% [5]. - The AI industry chain experienced a resonance due to breakthroughs in DeepSeek technology, with high-dividend sectors like banking and technology growth sectors forming the core market lines [5]. Future Outlook - The focus for the second half of 2025 will be on three main lines: technology self-sufficiency, new consumption, and supply-side clearing [8][20]. - The technology self-sufficiency line is driven by external pressures, such as tariffs and technology blockades, which are pushing domestic industries to upgrade [8]. - The new consumption line is characterized by the rise of Generation Z, shifting consumer focus from product price to experience [13][16]. - Supply-side clearing is seen as crucial for economic recovery, with sectors like industrial metals, lithium batteries, and innovative pharmaceuticals expected to benefit [20]. Key Trends - In the AI and semiconductor sectors, the commercial application of AI models is driving demand for computing power, benefiting domestic GPU and server supply chains [12]. - The new energy sector is witnessing rapid advancements in technologies like TOPCon batteries and 800V electric drive systems, leading to improved profitability for leading companies [12]. - Generation Z's consumption behavior is marked by a focus on emotional value, with trends such as experiential services and the rise of domestic brands gaining traction [18].