Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund Xingquan Global Vision Stock (340006) reported a profit of 20.16 million yuan for Q2 2025, with a net asset value growth rate of 1.82% and a fund size of 1.177 billion yuan as of the end of Q2 2025 [2][15]. Fund Performance - As of July 21, the fund's unit net value was 2.41 yuan [2]. - The fund's three-month net value growth rate was 11.43%, ranking 19 out of 61 comparable funds [4]. - The six-month net value growth rate was 9.46%, ranking 29 out of 61 comparable funds [4]. - The one-year net value growth rate was 16.73%, ranking 37 out of 61 comparable funds [4]. - The three-year net value growth rate was -15.60%, ranking 44 out of 60 comparable funds [4]. Risk and Return Metrics - The fund's three-year Sharpe ratio was -0.1241, ranking 45 out of 60 comparable funds [9]. - The maximum drawdown over the past three years was 35.97%, ranking 26 out of 59 comparable funds [11]. - The highest stock position was 92.23% at the end of H1 2020, while the lowest was 80.78% at the end of Q3 2022 [14]. Investment Focus - The fund management emphasized a focus on the technology sector, driven by government policies promoting technological innovation and new productivity [3]. - The fund aims to identify companies with high technological barriers and strong competitive advantages, particularly in sectors like smart driving, AI technology, and military electronics [3]. - The fund also seeks opportunities in companies that either reduce capital expenditures and increase cash dividends or actively develop new growth avenues to sustain performance [3]. Top Holdings - As of Q2 2025, the fund's top ten holdings included Ningde Times, Luxshare Precision, Sany Heavy Industry, Zijin Mining, Northern Huachuang, Aidi Pharmaceutical, Shandong Gold, Huaqin Technology, Electric Connection Technology, and Philips [19].

Market Overview - In the first half of 2025, the A-share market showed a differentiated pattern amidst internal and external disturbances, with the total A-share index rising by 5.83% [2][3]. - Small-cap stocks significantly outperformed, with the North Securities 50 index increasing by 39.45% and the Micro Index by 36.41% [2]. Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector led the industry gains with an 18.12% increase, followed by banking at 13.10% and national defense and military industry at 12.99% [5]. - The AI industry chain experienced a resonance due to breakthroughs in DeepSeek technology, with high-dividend sectors like banking and technology growth sectors forming the core market lines [5]. Future Outlook - The focus for the second half of 2025 will be on three main lines: technology self-sufficiency, new consumption, and supply-side clearing [8][20]. - The technology self-sufficiency line is driven by external pressures, such as tariffs and technology blockades, which are pushing domestic industries to upgrade [8]. - The new consumption line is characterized by the rise of Generation Z, shifting consumer focus from product price to experience [13][16]. - Supply-side clearing is seen as crucial for economic recovery, with sectors like industrial metals, lithium batteries, and innovative pharmaceuticals expected to benefit [20]. Key Trends - In the AI and semiconductor sectors, the commercial application of AI models is driving demand for computing power, benefiting domestic GPU and server supply chains [12]. - The new energy sector is witnessing rapid advancements in technologies like TOPCon batteries and 800V electric drive systems, leading to improved profitability for leading companies [12]. - Generation Z's consumption behavior is marked by a focus on emotional value, with trends such as experiential services and the rise of domestic brands gaining traction [18].

Core Viewpoint - The effectiveness of cyclical investment is recovering, with indicators showing a positive correlation between stock price movements and recent earnings growth since June, suggesting that market performance is increasingly guided by economic conditions [1] Group 1: Resource Products - Price Increases: Resource products such as non-ferrous metals and chemicals have seen continuous price increases due to tight supply and marginal demand improvement, leading to higher earnings certainty for Q2 [1] - Supply Clearing: Industries like steel, building materials, coal, and chemicals are experiencing accelerated supply reduction, which, combined with demand recovery, is expected to enhance earnings elasticity and reverse industry challenges [2] - Q2 Earnings Clues: Key resource product categories with significant earnings revisions since Q2 include building materials (coatings, glass fiber, cement), chemicals (fertilizers, pesticides), steel (special steel), and non-ferrous metals (nickel, cobalt, gold, copper) [2] Group 2: AI Computing Power - Performance Divergence: Since June, there has been a notable divergence within the AI sector, with upstream hardware (PCB, optical modules) outperforming midstream software services and downstream applications [3] - North American Computing Chain: The North American computing chain, represented by optical modules and PCBs, has shown enhanced earnings certainty, with significant upward revisions in Q2 earnings, contrasting with downward adjustments in domestic computing chains [3] - Earnings as a Key Driver: The performance of various segments within the AI industry has been closely correlated with the extent of Q2 earnings revisions, indicating that earnings certainty is becoming a critical factor in pricing within the tech sector [3]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The current economic environment is facing downward pressure on prices, with insufficient motivation for inventory replenishment and industrial capacity utilization at a five-year low due to a 7-10 year capacity cycle [1][4] - Different industries face varying levels of supply-side clearing pressure, with downstream sectors like automotive, general equipment, and textiles under significant stress, while the steel industry maintains relatively high capacity utilization [1][5] Core Insights and Arguments - The supply-side clearing process is different this time, primarily involving private enterprises, which may lead to significant price volatility. However, the current demand environment is relatively mild, providing favorable conditions for supply-side adjustments [1][7] - Investment strategies should focus on natural clearing for long-term value investments, particularly in sectors like Hong Kong internet and white goods, while administrative interventions should consider policy strength in resource sectors like photovoltaics and automobiles [1][8] - The steel industry benefits from low commodity valuations and strong export resilience, which alleviates domestic demand pressure. However, production cuts may tighten in the second half of the year [1][9][11] Industry-Specific Insights Automotive Industry - The automotive sector is experiencing a stable price recovery, with discussions between the Ministry of Industry and car manufacturers to improve sales and supply chains. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 60% in the second half of the year [3][31] - Companies with strong new car cycles and product capabilities, such as Xiaomi Auto and Li Auto, are viewed positively [3][31] Steel Industry - The steel sector shows significant investment opportunities, with futures and stock prices rebounding sharply. The overall rebound is supported by low commodity valuations and strong export performance, with total demand decline not as severe as expected [9][10][11][12] - Recommendations for steel stock allocation focus on companies like Hualing and New Steel, which have both high-end product protection and potential production cut flexibility [14] Construction Industry - The construction sector is heavily impacted by internal competition, leading to a scale inefficiency. However, the anti-involution policy may improve the commercial model and competitive landscape, enhancing overall profitability [37][38] - Steel structure production may benefit from rising steel prices, improving financial performance for companies like Honglu Steel Structure [39] Chemical Industry - The chemical sector is facing a significant downturn, with many products at historically low price levels. However, sub-industries like organic silicon and polyester filament may see potential benefits from collaborative efforts to stabilize prices [18][19] Environmental Industry - The environmental sector is witnessing a shift towards mechanization and smart solutions, with companies like Yingfeng Environment and Yutong Heavy Industry leading the way in innovation [24][26] Other Important Insights - The current supply-side clearing differs from past experiences, as it involves more private enterprises and is expected to be more volatile due to the nature of supply adjustments [7] - The overall economic environment is supported by government debt issuance and rising social financing growth, which may provide a buffer for supply-side adjustments [7] - The construction and environmental sectors are expected to see improvements in profitability due to policy support and market dynamics [38][39][25] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, highlighting the current state and future outlook of various industries in the context of supply-side adjustments and anti-involution policies.

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the electricity generation industry and its relationship with industrial value-added growth in the context of the broader economy. Core Points and Arguments - There is a significant divergence between electricity generation growth and industrial value-added growth, attributed to differences in statistical scope, as data from small-scale enterprises (such as renewable energy and distributed photovoltaic) is not fully captured in the statistics [1][3] - Industrial electricity consumption growth is approximately 3%, while the growth of industrial value-added for large-scale enterprises is around 6%, indicating a disparity in development between large and small enterprises [1][4] - The domestic economic growth target of 5% is likely achievable, but tail risks remain, particularly for low-income residents, small enterprises, and local governments with heavy debt burdens [1][5] - The divergence in growth rates is particularly pronounced in the electrical machinery, chemical, non-metallic minerals, and general equipment sectors, where capacity utilization rates are at historical lows [1][6] - In 2025, risk warnings in various industries, especially electrical machinery, chemicals, non-metallic minerals, and communication equipment, are higher than in 2024, indicating significant changes on the supply side with little improvement on the demand side [1][7] - The phenomenon of divergence is expected to continue, with a proposed solution being to strengthen supply-side clearing efforts and improve capacity utilization rates [1][8] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The rapid growth of small-scale enterprises in electricity generation is not reflected in overall statistics, leading to a misleading picture of the industry [3][4] - The performance of large enterprises is significantly better than that of small and medium-sized enterprises, contributing to the observed divergence in data [4][6] - The need for policy support to mitigate risks faced by low-income residents and small enterprises is emphasized, highlighting the importance of addressing these tail risks for overall economic stability [5]

Group 1 - The report highlights the ongoing restructuring of global trade dynamics, with China's economic ties to emerging markets strengthening while its direct trade with the US is diminishing. This shift is seen as a potential opportunity for China amidst a "strategic stalemate" with the US [4][5][6] - The A-share market is positioned to potentially enter a bull market phase, driven by increasing household asset allocation towards equities, particularly as 2025 marks a peak for deposit reallocations. The report anticipates a gradual shift in asset allocation as residents seek diversified investment options [7][8] - The report suggests that the current market has not yet signaled the start of a bull run, with supply-side improvements clear but demand-side factors remaining complex. The timing for a market rally is still uncertain, with expectations for a clearer picture emerging in 2026 [9][10] Group 2 - A-share earnings forecasts for 2025 indicate a year-on-year growth of 4.6% for non-financial companies, with significant fluctuations expected throughout the year. The second quarter is projected to be a critical window for export recovery, while the latter half of the year may see a decline in demand [12] - The asset management industry is not yet prepared for a bull market, as historical patterns show that a cycle of capital inflow is necessary for a bull market to take hold. The report emphasizes the need for a sustained accumulation of profit effects to trigger a significant shift in public fund dynamics [13] - The report anticipates that the next potential bull market may evolve into a "slow bull" unique to China, characterized by prolonged but gradual improvements in fundamentals and a higher value attribute in the market [18][19]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the A-share market is experiencing a valuation recovery supported by multiple favorable factors, leading to improved market sentiment and risk appetite [1][2] - Public fund performance has improved significantly, with average returns for ordinary stock funds and mixed equity funds at 3.87% and 4.14% year-to-date as of May 13, respectively, and over 7% for the past year [1] - Key sectors leading the market include aviation, military, and telecommunications, with several funds achieving returns exceeding 10% [1] Group 2 - Fund managers attribute the market's upward momentum to steady economic recovery, improved liquidity expectations, and supportive policies [2][3] - The recent monetary policy adjustments, including reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, have stimulated financing demand, positively impacting the market [3] - Investment opportunities are seen in sectors with relatively low valuations, such as banking, non-bank financials, construction, and home appliances, as well as themes like domestic production, supply clearing, technological advancement, and consumption stimulation [3][4] Group 3 - Recent financial policies are expected to stabilize the market and improve expectations, with a focus on sectors like AI, Hong Kong internet, new consumption, and domestic demand-driven industries [4]

Group 1: Strategy Overview - The report discusses the supply-demand dynamics, identifying industries experiencing "supply clearance" or "strong expansion" [3] - It analyzes the export chain, detailing the overseas revenue and revenue from the U.S. for various industries [3] - The report highlights a noticeable increase in dividend yields in certain transportation and consumer sectors [3] Group 2: Market Performance - A-share market shows a stable upward trend, driven by policy catalysts, with a recovery in risk appetite and marginal improvement in sentiment [3] - Global equity markets exhibit mixed performance, with A-shares leading in gains [3] - The report notes a rise in gold prices followed by a pullback, alongside the appreciation of the Renminbi [3] Group 3: Industry Insights - The automotive sector, particularly Xingyu Co., Ltd. (601799.SH), is noted for its strong domestic market performance and steady growth in overseas markets [6] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 165 billion, 205 billion, and 254 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with respective growth rates of 25%, 24%, and 24% [6] - The projected net profit for the same period is 19 billion, 25 billion, and 31 billion yuan, with growth rates of 36%, 30%, and 26% [6]

证券研究报告 | 策略研究 gszqdatemark 2025 05 12 年 月 日 投资策略 财报过后，供给出清、出口链与高股息再梳理 一、策略专题：供给出清、出口链与高股息再梳理 4 月 30 日，A 股 2024 年报与 2025 一季报披露完毕，我们结合最新数据 对供给出清、出口链与高股息行业进行再梳理。 从供需格局的角度，有两类行业值得关注，第一类是左侧思路的"供给出 清"行业，即库存与产能均处于较为明显的出清状态，在需求能够保持稳 定甚至高速增长的背景下，上述行业有望凸显盈利弹性，25Q1 具备上述 特征的行业主要包括塑料、通用设备、游戏、种植业、小金属、光学光电 子、通信服务。 即国内需求存在压力的情况下，海外收入占比较高的出口链有望取得独立 景气，我们结合 2024 年上市公司主营构成与海关总署披露的出口数据对 各行业海外收入占比进行测算，当前全球出口链重点行业包括其他家电、 消费电子、航运港口、小家电、工程机械等。 第二类行业是右侧思路的"强势扩产"行业，即营收高速增长反映需求旺 盛，同时产能扩张处于较高水平，未来有望通过提高产量推动利润扩张， 25Q1 具备上述特征的行业主要包括其他电子 ...

Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Two categories of industries are highlighted: "supply clearing" industries with significant inventory and capacity reduction, and "strong expansion" industries with high revenue growth and capacity expansion [2][15]. - Industries exhibiting "supply clearing" characteristics include plastics, general equipment, gaming, agriculture, small metals, optical electronics, and communication services [2][15]. - Industries showing "strong expansion" characteristics include other electronics, leisure food, motorcycles, precious metals, and shipping ports [2][17]. Group 2: Export Chain Analysis - Industries with high overseas revenue ratios are expected to maintain independent growth despite domestic demand pressures, including other home appliances, consumer electronics, shipping ports, small appliances, and engineering machinery [3][20]. - The report notes that industries with high revenue from the U.S. face uncertainties until U.S.-China trade relations improve, with potential valuation recovery for sectors like entertainment products, textile manufacturing, and lighting equipment if tariff issues ease [3][23]. Group 3: High Dividend Yield Industries - High dividend yield industries identified include coal mining, oil and gas extraction, refining and trading, shipping ports, and white goods [4][26]. - Notably, the dividend yield for transportation and consumer sectors has significantly increased compared to the previous year, particularly in shipping ports, logistics, and white goods [4][26]. Group 4: Market Performance and Strategy - The A-share market shows resilience, with a net outflow of ETFs indicating reduced support from protective funds, yet the market remains stable with transaction volumes exceeding 1 trillion [5][29]. - The report suggests a cautious approach to position management due to ongoing uncertainties, with a focus on potential support levels for the index [5][29]. - A balanced allocation strategy is recommended to navigate uncertainties, with a renewed interest in technology sectors, particularly in AI, and a shift towards high-growth industries such as feed, motorcycles, and plastics [5][30].