Summary of Tianqi Lithium's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tianqi Lithium - **Industry**: Lithium Industry Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 104 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 102.68% [3] - The operating cash flow reached 952 million yuan, indicating robust cash flow performance [3] - The company's net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 44.42 million yuan [2][3] Factors Contributing to Performance Improvement - The improvement in performance is attributed to optimized supply chain management and a shortened lithium ore pricing cycle, which mitigated the impact of pricing mechanism mismatches [2][4] - The cost of chemical-grade lithium concentrate has approached the latest procurement prices due to new lithium spodumene purchases and inventory digestion [2][4] - The production capacity ramp-up and technological upgrades at self-owned factories contributed to a year-on-year increase in lithium compounds and derivatives production and sales [2][5] SQM Investment Impact - The tax dispute resolution with SQM has been confirmed for the 2024 fiscal year, with a positive impact on Tianqi's profits due to increased investment returns from SQM [2][6] Procurement and Pricing Strategy - The current procurement price for lithium ore from Talison is approximately 700 to 750 yuan, based on a weighted average of data from four pricing agencies [2][7] - Despite recent declines in lithium ore prices, Talison's cost advantages remain significant, with cash costs showing little change [2][8] Inventory and Sales Strategy - The average inventory cost has decreased to around 700 to 800 yuan, aligning with current market procurement prices [2][9] - The company employs a long-term sales strategy, maintaining good relationships with downstream customers and adjusting pricing based on market conditions [2][13][14] Industry Challenges and Opportunities - The lithium industry is facing challenges due to lower prices, but domestic production remains stable, with Talison maintaining cost advantages [2][21] - The decline in lithium prices may accelerate market clearing, benefiting cost-advantaged companies [2][22] Future Production Expectations - Overall production is expected to increase steadily, with new projects anticipated to ramp up significantly by 2026 [2][18] - The first phase of the Kwinana project has seen some production improvements, but overall capacity utilization has not yet met expectations [2][19] Strategic Focus - The company continues to focus on strengthening upstream resources while maintaining a balanced approach across upstream, midstream, and downstream operations [2][31][33] - There is an emphasis on enhancing downstream strategies due to perceived weaknesses in that area over the past few years [2][33] Market Outlook - The company remains focused on long-term demand and industry growth, despite short-term price fluctuations influenced by external factors [2][34] - The company is prepared for potential futures trading but is waiting for favorable market conditions to proceed [2][24] Additional Notes - The company has no immediate plans for production maintenance during the Spring Festival, but regular safety inspections are conducted annually [2][35]

Email：wangyh@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 研究员：张重洋 从业资格号：Z0020996 Email：zhangcy@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 需求指引偏平淡，锂价震荡偏弱 碳酸锂周报20250428 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号：Z0010675 2 核心观点 产业基本面-供给端 1 4 其他重要影响因素 3 产业基本面-需求端 目 录 核心观点 供给端：本周国内碳酸锂产量环比减少488吨至16900吨，部分锂盐厂在4-6月检修，供应有少许减量。进口方面，据智利 海关，3月智利出口至中国碳酸锂规模为1.66万吨，环比增加38%，回升至均值水平。本周碳酸锂社会库存环比增加259吨 至13.19万吨，冶炼厂、下游及其他环节的库存分别为5.24万吨、4.28万吨和3.66万吨。冶炼厂和下游小幅累库，整体去 库压力较大。中长期维度，今年碳酸锂供应过剩的压力仍较大； 需求端：据调研，5月下游暂无大的需求增量，531抢装结束后，国内储能面临需求环比下滑的风险。终端市场方面，据乘 联分会4月1—20日，全国乘用车新能源市场零售47.8万辆，同比增长20%，环比下降 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2][3][5] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Due to the expected loose supply of domestic lithium carbonate in April and the weakening price trend, it is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support level around 30,000 - 60,000 and the resistance level around 73,000 - 75,000 [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Futures and Spot Price - On April 24, 2025, the closing prices of lithium carbonate futures contracts (near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three) all decreased compared to the previous day, with the near - month contract closing at 68,380 yuan/ton, down 680 yuan. The trading volume of the active contract was 104,384 lots, a decrease of 111,782 lots from the previous day, and the open interest increased by 6,068 lots. The inventory decreased by 180 tons [1] - The average prices of various lithium minerals (lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, etc.) remained unchanged compared to the previous day, while the average prices of lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/ domestic, 99.2% industrial - grade/ domestic) decreased by 50 yuan/ton [1] - The average prices of some lithium compounds (lithium hydroxide, lithium hexafluorophosphate) decreased, while the average prices of some ternary precursors and ternary materials increased slightly [1] Industry News and Company Dynamics - In April 2020, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology upgraded the "no fire, no explosion" requirement for electric vehicle power batteries from a recommended standard to a mandatory one [2] - The 20,000 - ton iron phosphate lithium hydroxide material project of Baiyin Times Ruitai New Material Technology Co., Ltd. was officially put into production in Baiyin City, Gansu Province. The total planned production capacity of the project is 100,000 tons, to be built in three phases [2] - Fangyuan Co., Ltd. decided to terminate the "Battery - grade Lithium Carbonate Production and Comprehensive Utilization of Waste Lithium - ion Batteries Project" with a planned investment of no more than 2 billion yuan, and has invested 97 million yuan in the project [2] - Linyi Bucha Weimang Environmental Protection New Material Co., Ltd. plans to invest 100 million yuan to build a project for recycling and reusing 10,000 tons of waste lithium - ion batteries annually [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply side: Tianqi Lithium's 30,000 - ton wet - process project at Greenbushes may be put into production in October 2025, which may lead to a decline in the price of imported lithium ore. The monthly production of domestic lithium carbonate may increase, and the supply is expected to be loose. Some production lines will undergo maintenance, and new production capacity will be put into operation [3][5] - Demand side: The downstream demand for lithium products is gradually recovering. The production and inventory of some products (such as lithium iron phosphate) may increase, while the export volume of some products (such as lithium hydroxide) may decrease [3][5]

天齐锂业（002466）公告，预计第一季度归属于上市公司股东的净利润为8200万元–1.23亿元，上年同 期为亏损38.97亿元；扣除非经常性损益后的净利润为3200万元–4800万元，上年同期为亏损39.17亿元； 基本每股收益为0.05元/股–0.08元/股，上年同期为亏损2.38元/股。公司业绩变动主要原因是锂产品销售 价格下降、化学级锂精矿成本基本贴近最新采购价格、锂化合物及衍生品产销量同比增长以及联营公司 SQM投资收益较上年同期增长。 ...

Summary of Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the current market conditions and trends in the mining and materials industry, particularly focusing on supply and demand dynamics since late February and early March [1][2]. Key Points - The market has been experiencing a weak oscillation, with a notable support level around 75,000, which has shown resistance to downward movement [1][4]. - Recent trading activity reflects a response to previous expectations, indicating a feedback loop between market sentiment and fundamental conditions [2][12]. - Current spot prices for materials, such as electric meal, are around 74,500, aligning with market trends [3]. - Supply and demand expectations have shifted, with indications of a potential oversupply beginning in March due to the resumption of production by major manufacturers [7][12]. - The demand side remains stable but lacks significant growth, with seasonal improvements noted in March [4][10]. - Inventory levels have been increasing, suggesting a potential weakening in demand despite stable order volumes [11][12]. Additional Insights - The cost structure for raw materials is undergoing adjustments, with integrated costs showing a downward trend, which may provide some relief to pricing pressures [5][6]. - The production capacity is expanding, with a notable increase in output and operational rates among major producers [8]. - The sentiment in the market is currently pessimistic, with expectations of further declines in prices, particularly if panic selling occurs [14][15]. - There is a suggestion for investors to consider options trading strategies to mitigate risks associated with current market volatility [15]. Conclusion - Overall, the market is characterized by a fragile balance between supply and demand, with increasing inventories and stable but uninspiring demand. The outlook remains cautious, with potential for further price declines if market conditions do not improve. Investors are advised to monitor developments closely and consider strategic trading options.

Summary of Ganfeng Lithium (1772.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Ganfeng Lithium - **Ticker**: 1772.HK - **Market Cap**: HK$67,370 million (US$8,661 million) [4] Financial Performance - **4Q24 Net Loss**: Rmb1.4 billion, impacted by fair value loss from PLS stake (estimated at ~Rmb1.1 billion) and share of loss from associates (~Rmb300 million) [1] - **Core Business Performance**: Barely break-even in 4Q24, showing little change quarter-over-quarter [1] - **Balance Sheet Deterioration**: Interest-bearing debt increased by 30% YoY to Rmb32 billion (up from Rmb25 billion in 2024 and Rmb13 billion in 2023) [1] - **Free Cash Flow**: Free cash outflow of Rmb1,118 million in 4Q24, compared to Rmb2.3 billion in 3Q24 [3] - **Net Gearing Ratio**: Increased to 53% in 4Q24 from 44% in 3Q24 and 30% in 4Q23 [3] Segment Performance - **Lithium Compound vs. Battery Segment**: Lithium segment gross profit margin (GpM) was ~10% in FY24, down 3 percentage points YoY, while battery segment GpM averaged 12% in FY24, down from 18% in FY23 [2] Market Conditions - **Lithium Prices**: Significant decline in lithium benchmark prices, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices down 65% YoY and lithium hydroxide prices down 70% YoY [8] - **Sales Performance**: Gross revenue decreased by 43% YoY to Rmb18.906 billion in 2024 [8] Valuation and Recommendations - **Target Price**: HK$26.00, representing a 19.8% expected return from the current price of HK$21.70 [4] - **Expected Total Return**: 20.0%, including a 0.1% expected dividend yield [4] Risks - **Key Risks**: 1. Increased supply of lithium compounds leading to lower prices for lithium carbonate and hydroxide [11] 2. Weaker-than-expected demand for electric vehicles (EVs) [11] 3. Spodumene concentrate prices declining less than anticipated [11] Additional Insights - **Investment Factors**: The increase in debt is attributed to overseas expansion and share repurchase activities, indicating potential financial cost pressures in the near future [1] - **Analyst Valuation**: Ganfeng-H shares are valued at a 30% discount to Ganfeng-A shares, consistent with historical averages since 2019 [10]

Core Insights - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the year 2024, marking its first annual loss since going public [1][2] - The drop in lithium prices was identified as the primary reason for the poor performance, with a notable decrease in the average price of lithium carbonate [1][2] Financial Performance - The company's total revenue for 2024 was 18.91 billion yuan, a decrease of 42.66% compared to the previous year [1] - The net loss attributable to shareholders was 2.07 billion yuan, a shift from a profit of 4.95 billion yuan in 2023, representing a decline of 141.93% [1] - The net profit after excluding non-recurring items was a loss of 887 million yuan, down 133.16% from a profit of 2.68 billion yuan in 2023 [1] - Basic and diluted earnings per share were both -1.03 yuan, compared to 2.46 yuan in the previous year, reflecting a decrease of 141.87% [1] Business Operations - The lithium series products contributed 12.02 billion yuan in revenue, a year-on-year decrease of 50.88% [1] - Revenue from lithium battery series was 5.90 billion yuan, down 23.49% year-on-year [1] - The overall gross margin fell to 10.82%, a decrease of 2.86% from the previous year, with the lithium salt business gross margin at only 10.47% [1] Strategic Developments - The company is advancing its global resource layout with multiple projects coming online, including the Cauchari-Olaroz salt lake project in Argentina and the Goulamina spodumene project in Mali [2] - Plans are in place to achieve an annual supply capacity of no less than 600,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) by 2030 through innovative extraction technologies [2] - The company achieved breakthroughs in solid-state battery research, enhancing the conductivity of sulfide solid electrolytes, which supports the commercialization of solid-state batteries [2] - The battery recycling business has reached an annual processing capacity of 200,000 tons, with a lithium recovery rate exceeding 90% [2] - The company reported significant growth in the energy storage sector, with production and sales of power storage batteries reaching 11,439.5 MWh and 8,195.4 MWh, respectively, marking a year-on-year increase of 98.73% [2]

Summary of Tianqi Lithium's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tianqi Lithium - **Industry**: Lithium and battery materials Key Financial Performance - **2024 Revenue**: 13.063 billion CNY, a decrease of 67.75% year-on-year, primarily due to reduced income from lithium compounds and Zijin Mining [3][5] - **Gross Profit**: 6 billion CNY, down 82% year-on-year, impacted by falling lithium prices and other non-recurring factors [3][5] - **Lithium Compound Revenue**: 8.075 billion CNY, a decrease of 39.24% [5] - **Zijin Mining Revenue**: 4.978 billion CNY, a decrease of 81.7% [5] - **Operating Loss**: Significant losses attributed to lower lithium prices and tax-related expenses [5] Production and Capacity - **Lithium Salt Production**: Continuous growth for five years, with a focus on optimizing inventory and reducing costs [3][6] - **Aanju Base Capacity**: Battery-grade lithium carbonate capacity reached 23,000 tons/year [3][6] - **Greenbushes Mine**: Total mineral resources equivalent to 16 million tons of lithium carbonate, with confirmed and inferred reserves of 8.1 million tons [3][8] - **Processing Capacity**: Four operational processing plants with an annual capacity of 1.62 million tons, expected to reach 2.14 million tons by October 2025 [3][10] Strategic Initiatives - **Supply Chain Integration**: Building a domestic and international integrated supply chain, including investments in SQM and other resources [3][7] - **Project Developments**: Ongoing construction of the Yajiang Cuola lithium mine, expected to be a key domestic supply source [3][9] - **Vertical Integration**: Continued expansion of lithium chemical product capacity, with a total planned capacity of 122,600 tons/year [3][12][24] Market Outlook - **2025 Performance Expectations**: Anticipated improvement in Q1 2025 due to resolution of tax arbitration issues and inventory adjustments [3][17] - **Long-term Demand**: Confidence in the growth of the lithium industry driven by the transition to renewable energy and electric vehicles [3][19][20] - **Sales Guidance**: Targeting a minimum of 10,280 tons of lithium compounds and derivatives in 2025, with significant growth expected in subsequent years [3][21] ESG and Sustainability Efforts - **ESG Initiatives**: Active participation in developing sustainability standards and recognition in global sustainability indices [3][16] - **Green Factory Development**: Focus on building green and intelligent factories to enhance production efficiency and sustainability [3][4][26] Governance and Leadership Transition - **Leadership Transition**: Confidence in the new leadership under Chairman Anqi, with a focus on maintaining corporate culture and governance standards [3][22] - **Independent Board Oversight**: Independent directors ensure governance and protect investor interests through diligent oversight [3][27] Conclusion - **Future Growth Strategy**: Emphasis on resource management, production efficiency, and market adaptability to navigate industry cycles and enhance competitive positioning [3][26]

Core Insights - Tianqi Lithium Industries reported its worst financial results since its listing, with a net loss of 7.905 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 208.32% [3][4] - The company's total revenue for the year was 13.063 billion yuan, down 67.75% compared to the previous year [3] Financial Performance - The significant drop in revenue and net loss is attributed to a sharp decline in lithium product prices and a mismatch in pricing mechanisms between its subsidiaries [3][4] - Lithium concentrate prices fell drastically due to oversupply, stabilizing between 700-800 USD/ton by September 2024, down from around 1800 USD/ton at the end of 2023 [3] Market Conditions - Lithium carbonate futures prices in the first half of 2024 ranged between 90,000 to 120,000 yuan/ton, with a significant drop to about 70,000 yuan/ton in August 2024, compared to a peak of 600,000 yuan/ton [4] - The performance of Tianqi's joint venture SQM was negatively impacted by tax issues, leading to a recognition of approximately 1.1 billion USD in income tax expenses [5] Project Developments - Tianqi Lithium terminated its second-phase lithium hydroxide project in Australia due to economic unfeasibility, resulting in an asset impairment [5] - The termination of this project is expected to reduce the company's net profit attributable to shareholders by approximately 501 million yuan, which is about 6.86% of the audited net profit for the last fiscal year [5]

Summary of Tianqi Lithium's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tianqi Lithium - **Date**: February 26, 2025 Key Points Industry Challenges and Financial Performance - Tianqi Lithium faces multiple challenges including pricing mismatches in aluminum products, tax litigation with SQM, suspension of the Kwinana Phase II project, and foreign exchange losses, leading to a decline in investment income [2][3] - The company anticipates a loss of 7.1 to 8.2 billion yuan for the year 2024, primarily due to significant declines in aluminum product prices and increased asset impairment losses [3] Production Capacity and Developments - The Greenbush lithium mine's capacity is steadily increasing, with the CDP3 plant expected to commence production in Q4 2025, raising capacity to 2.14 million tons per year [2][4] - Current lithium hydroxide production capacity stands at 188,600 tons per year, with a new 30,000-ton project in Zhangjiagang expected to be completed within 18 to 24 months, increasing total capacity to 218,600 tons per year [2][6] Kwinana Project Status - The Kwinana Phase II project has been terminated, while Phase I is still ramping up and is projected to produce approximately 5,000 to 6,000 tons in 2024 [2][10] - The total impairment for the Kwinana Phase II project is about 400 million yuan, with an additional inventory impairment of approximately 770 million yuan, impacting net profit by around 770 million yuan [2][14] Cost Structure - The cash mining cost at the Greenbush mine is approximately 300 AUD, with total costs around 500 AUD, translating to about 18,000 to 20,000 USD per ton [4][12] - The average cost of lithium carbonate from the Adaparama salt lake is between 5,000 to 7,000 USD, with costs rising due to electricity and environmental factors [4][13] SQM Resource Allocation Impact - Starting in 2025, SQM will receive 33,500 tons of lithium resource revenue, which will affect Tianqi Lithium's investment income. After 2030, resource allocation will be based on equity ratios [2][11] Future Plans and Innovations - Tianqi Lithium is expanding its metal lithium production capacity in Chongqing, targeting an additional 1,000 tons per year [2][17] - The company is focusing on the development of next-generation battery materials, particularly sulfide solid electrolytes, and has received positive feedback from downstream customers on high-purity lithium sulfide products [2][17] Impairment Provisions - The company plans to recognize an impairment of 2.2 billion yuan, reflecting current market conditions and asset value adjustments [2][14] Market Conditions - The procurement cost for refined materials has decreased from high levels at the end of 2023 to around 1,300 USD, with December prices for lithium around 705 USD [2][7] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from Tianqi Lithium's conference call, highlighting the company's operational challenges, production developments, financial outlook, and strategic initiatives in the lithium industry.