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白糖产业日报-20250623
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 11:15
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - International factors such as the improved prospects and expected restorative production increase in major Asian sugar - producing countries due to the monsoon season, along with the increased supply of Brazilian sugar, are suppressing the raw sugar price. In the domestic market, in May 2025, China's sugar imports reached 350,000 tons, a significant increase of 220,000 tons from April and a surge of 1954.9% year - on - year. With the import window open, import pressure is rising, which is putting downward pressure on sugar prices. However, as the summer consumption peak approaches, the food and beverage industry has stocking needs, and seasonal consumption of cold drinks may pick up, providing some support to prices. The sugar price is showing an adjustment trend in the short term, and attention should be paid to sugar arrivals and summer consumption [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract was 5,721 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the main contract position was 353,799 lots, down 15,173 lots. The number of sugar warehouse receipts was 27,334, down 335; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 63,539 lots, down 5,111 lots. The total effective warehouse receipt forecast was 0, with no change [2]. 现货市场 - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4,393 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 4,415 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,578 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 5,606 yuan/ton, down 56 yuan. The spot price of white sugar in Kunming was 5,865 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Nanning was 6,050 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Liuzhou was 6,100 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sowing area was 1,480 thousand hectares. The cumulative national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons. The sowing area of sugar - cane in Guangxi was 5.49 thousand hectares. The cumulative national sugar sales volume was 8.3509 million tons, down 128,600 tons. The national industrial sugar inventory was 3.0483 million tons, down 814,300 tons. The national sugar sales rate was 72.69%, up 7.47 percentage points. The monthly sugar import volume was 350,000 tons, up 220,000 tons. The total monthly sugar exports from Brazil were 2.2566 million tons, up 704,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1,536 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1,514 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 351 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 323 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year increase in refined sugar production was 16.7%, up 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year increase in soft - drink production was 3%, down 0.9 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 11.36%, up 2.54 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar was 11.36%, up 2.59 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar was 5.57%, with no change; the 60 - day historical volatility was 8.52%, down 0.05 percentage points [2]. Industry News - On June 23, the sales profit of white sugar produced from imported Brazilian raw sugar in China was about 1,925 yuan/ton within the tariff quota (15% tariff) or 707 yuan/ton outside the tariff quota (50% tariff). The sales profit of white sugar produced from imported Thai raw sugar was about 1,889 yuan/ton within the tariff quota (15% tariff) or 655 yuan/ton outside the tariff quota (50% tariff) [2].
白糖:反弹
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-22 09:29
二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 06 月 22 日 白糖:反弹 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com 报告导读: (1)本周市场回顾 国际市场方面,美元指数 98.76(前值 98.15),美元兑巴西雷亚尔 5.50(前值 5.56),WTI 原油价 格 74.04 美元/桶(+1.2%),纽约原糖活跃合约价格 16.53 美分/磅(-0.06%)。截至 6 月 10 日,基金多 单增加 632 手,基金空单增加 20718 手,净多单同比减少 20086 手至-38526 手,净多单大幅减少。 UNICA 数据显示,截至 6 月 1 日,25/26 榨季巴西中南部累计产糖 695 万吨,同比减少 92 万吨。 ISMA/NFCSF 数据显示,截至 5 月 15 日,24/25 榨季印度产糖 2574 万吨,同比减少 580 万吨。OCSB 数 据显示,截至 4 月 9 日,24/25 榨季泰国产糖 1005 万吨,同比增加 131 万吨。 国内市场方面,广西集团现货报价 6030 元/吨,环比上周下跌 30 元/吨;郑糖主力报 5720 元/吨, 环比 ...
亚盛集团: 亚盛集团关于全资子公司对外投资的公告
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-06-20 11:41
Investment Overview - The company plans to invest RMB 30 million in establishing a wholly-owned subsidiary, Gansu Yasheng Ganyuan Agricultural Technology Co., Ltd. in Zhangye City, Gansu Province [1][2] - The investment is approved by the company's board of directors during the 8th meeting of the 10th board session held on June 20, 2025 [1] Business Scope of the New Subsidiary - The new subsidiary will engage in the production, sales, processing, transportation, storage, and other related services of agricultural products, as well as the initial processing of edible agricultural products [1][2] - It will also provide technical services, development, consulting, exchanges, transfers, and promotion related to agricultural technology [1] Strategic Impact - This investment aligns with the company's long-term development strategy and future business needs, contributing to the sustainable and stable growth of the sugar industry [2] - The investment is expected to have a positive impact on the company's future financial status and operational results [2]
白糖市场周报:技术性调整,趋势暂未改变-20250620
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 08:56
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract rebounded with a weekly increase of about 0.99%. Internationally, the monsoon season has improved the prospects of major sugar - producing countries in Asia, with expected restorative production increases, and the increased supply of Brazilian sugar has suppressed the raw sugar price. Domestically, in May 2025, China imported 350,000 tons of sugar, a significant increase compared to April and a surge of 1954.9% year - on - year. The opening of the import window has increased import pressure. Approaching the summer consumption peak season, the food and beverage industry has inventory needs, and seasonal consumption such as cold drinks may pick up, providing some support for prices and slowing down the decline. In the short term, it shows an adjustment trend, but the supply pressure remains, and the overall trend has not changed. It is recommended to treat the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract with a bearish bias in a volatile market. Future factors to watch include consumption and exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar [7] Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract price rebounded with a weekly increase of about 0.99%. International factors include improved production prospects in Asian sugar - producing countries and increased Brazilian sugar supply suppressing prices. Domestic factors are a large increase in sugar imports in May 2025 and approaching summer consumption peak season. It is recommended to treat the contract with a bearish bias in a volatile market. Future factors to watch are consumption and Brazilian/Indian sugar exports [7] 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Market - This week, the price of the US Sugar 7 - month contract fell with a weekly decline of about 1.15%. As of June 10, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of ICE No. 11 sugar increased by 1.46% month - on - month, non - commercial short positions increased by 8.62% month - on - month, and the non - commercial net position decreased by 407.67% month - on - month. The Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract price rebounded with a weekly increase of about 0.99%. The top 20 net positions in the sugar futures were - 58,428 lots, and the Zhengzhou Sugar warehouse receipts were 27,669. The 9 - 1 contract spread of Zhengzhou Sugar futures was + 147 yuan/ton, and the spot - Zhengzhou Sugar basis was 380 yuan/ton [10][14][22] Spot Market - As of June 19, the sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 6,100 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,855 yuan/ton. As of June 13, the estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) was 5,647 yuan/ton, a 0.69% month - on - month decrease; the in - quota price was 4,446 yuan/ton, a 0.67% month - on - month decrease. The estimated import processing price of Thai sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) was 5,676 yuan/ton, a 0.68% month - on - month decrease; the in - quota price was 4,468 yuan/ton, a 0.67% month - on - month decrease. As of this week, the in - quota profit of imported Brazilian sugar was 1,452 yuan/ton, a 3.2% increase from last week; the out - of - quota profit was 251 yuan/ton, a 27.41% increase from last week. The in - quota profit of imported Thai sugar was 1,430 yuan/ton, a 3.25% increase from last week; the out - of - quota profit was 222 yuan/ton, a 32.14% increase from last week [28][31][37] 3. Industry Chain Situation Supply Side - As of the end of May 2025, the 2024/25 sugar - making season had ended, and the national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03%. As of May 30, 2025, the industrial inventory was 3.0483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 322,100 tons. In May 2025, China imported 350,000 tons of sugar, a significant increase compared to April and a 1954.9% year - on - year increase, but the cumulative import from January to May 2025 was only 630,000 tons, a 50.1% year - on - year decrease [41][45][49] Demand Side - The cumulative national sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.521 million tons or 23.07%; the cumulative sugar sales rate was 72.69%, a 6.52 - percentage - point year - on - year increase. From January to April 2025, the cumulative output of refined sugar in China was 8.666 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. The cumulative output of soft drinks from January to April was 59.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.9% [53][57] 4. Options and Stock - Futures Correlation Market - The report mentions the implied volatility of at - the - money options in the options market and the price - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry in the stock - futures correlation market, but no specific data analysis is provided [58][62]
白糖产业日报-20250619
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-19 09:02
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - Internationally, the improved outlook and expected recovery in production of major Asian sugar - producing countries, along with increased supply from Brazil, are suppressing sugar prices. Domestically, the opening of the import window and rising import pressure are weighing on sugar prices. However, approaching the summer consumption peak, the demand for inventory replenishment in the food and beverage industry and the seasonal recovery of cold - drink consumption provide some support for prices, slowing down the decline. Attention should be paid to the arrival of imported sugar and summer consumption boosts [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract is 5658 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan; the main contract position is 384,680 lots, up 12,863 lots. The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 28,279, down 120; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 62,173 lots, down 6,170 lots. The effective warehouse receipt forecast is 0 [2] Spot Market - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4446 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4468 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5647 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 5676 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan. The spot prices of white sugar in Kunming, Nanning, and Liuzhou are 5855 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), 6020 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), and 6100 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan) respectively [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares. The planting area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares [2] Industry Situation - The national cumulative sugar production is 11.1072 million tons, up 360,100 tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume is 7.2446 million tons, up 1.2488 million tons. The national industrial sugar inventory is 3.8626 million tons, down 889,500 tons; the national sugar sales rate is 65.22%, up 9.43 percentage points. The monthly import volume of sugar is 130,000 tons, up 60,000 tons. The total sugar exports from Brazil are 2.2566 million tons, up 704,000 tons. The price differences between imported Brazilian/Thai sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar (within quota) are 1452 yuan/ton and 1430 yuan/ton respectively, up 45 yuan/ton; outside the quota (50% tariff), they are 251 yuan/ton and 222 yuan/ton respectively, up 54 yuan/ton [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, up 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft - drink production is 3.9%, up 0.9 percentage points [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call/put options for sugar is 11.36%, up 2.54 and 2.59 percentage points respectively. The 20 - day and 60 - day historical volatilities of sugar are 5.57% (unchanged) and 8.52%, down 0.05 percentage points respectively [2] Industry News - According to Williams, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports decreased from 80 to 76, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped decreased from 2.9104 million tons to 2.8539 million tons [2]
白糖数据日报-20250617
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-06-17 04:01
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating [3][4] 2. Core View - Zheng sugar is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend due to factors such as the expected increase in global sugar supply, upcoming imports in China, and the impact of low - cost substitutes [4] 3. Summary by Related Content Price Data - On June 16, 2025, the spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6130 yuan/ton, in Kunming was 5835 yuan/ton, in Dali, Yunnan was 5780 yuan/ton, and in Rizhao, Shandong was 6185 yuan/ton [4] - SR09 futures price was 5667 yuan/ton with an increase of 3 yuan, and SR01 was 5539 yuan/ton with an increase of 6 yuan [4] - The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 7.2035 with an increase of 0.0040, the exchange rate of the Brazilian real against the RMB was 1.2818 with an increase of 0.0212, and the exchange rate of the Indian rupee against the RMB was 0.084 with a decrease of 0.0004 [4] - The price of ICE raw sugar's main contract was 16.54, the price of London white sugar's main contract was 573 with an increase of 3, and the price of Brent crude oil's main contract was 75.18 [4] Supply and Demand Analysis - The sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern part of Brazil in the second half of April 2025 increased year - on - year, and the sugar - making ratio remained high. The expected sugar production in the 25/26 crushing season may reach 42 million tons, indicating a strong global supply - surplus pattern [4] - The previous drop of ICE raw sugar below 18 cents per pound triggered Chinese sugar purchases. The near - month purchase volume exceeded one million tons, and imported sugar is expected to arrive in China from mid - to - late June, increasing supply pressure in the third quarter [4] - The cost of imported sugar from Brazil after out - of - quota was reduced to 5980 yuan/ton, and the price difference with domestic spot prices narrowed to 150 yuan/ton, which stimulated subsequent purchases [4] - From January to March, the import of syrups and premixes was 242,000 tons (equivalent to about 156,000 tons of sugar), and low - cost substitutes continued to squeeze the consumption space of domestic - produced sugar [4]
白糖:如何看待当前价差结构
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-06-17 01:19
农产品研究 | 白糖 如何看待当前国内市场价差结构? 专题报告 2025-06-17 白糖:如何看待当前价差结构 杨泽元 农产品研究员 从业资格号:F03116327 交易咨询号:Z0019233 13352843071 yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 报告要点: 巴西中南部开始新榨季生产,对外发运量环比明显增加,外盘价差结构走弱,原糖价格创下自 2024 年 8 月以来的新低。国内方面,虽然目前产销进度同比加快,但随着外盘价格下跌后,进 口利润窗口打开,预计下半年进口供应将陆续增加,后市糖价延续震荡下跌的可能性偏大。而 下一轮反弹需要看到巴西产量出现较大问题。 从 4 月下旬开始,郑糖 7-9 合约价差逐步走出正套行情,反映的是 4 月和 5 月国内较强的现实 基本面。据中国糖业协会公布的最新数据显示,5 月全国单月销糖 86.92 万吨,同比增加 2.29 万吨;全国工业库存为 304.83 万吨,同比减少 32.21 万吨;累计产销率 72.69%,同比加快 6.52 个百分点。虽然 5 月的全国产销数据表现依然较好,还是得益于 4 月产销率创历史新高,而 5 月全国单月销糖数量与近 10 年同期 ...
瑞达期货白糖产业日报-20250616
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-16 10:43
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoint - Internationally, the prospects of major sugar - producing countries in Asia have improved, with expectations of a recovery in production, which restrains sugar price performance. Domestically, the import window has opened, increasing the later - stage import pressure and pushing sugar prices down. Near the summer consumption peak season, the food and beverage industry has inventory - building needs, and seasonal consumption such as cold drinks may recover, which may provide some support for future prices. Later, attention should be paid to the arrival of imports and the boost from summer consumption [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for sugar is 5667 yuan/ton, with a环比 increase of 3; the main contract position is 370572 hands, with a环比 increase of 2346. The number of warehouse receipts is 28586 sheets, with a环比 decrease of 150; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 48085 hands, with a环比 decrease of 3469. The effective warehouse receipt forecast is 0 [2]. - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4476 yuan/ton, with a环比 decrease of 39; that of Thai sugar is 4498 yuan/ton, with a环比 decrease of 39 [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5835 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Nanning is 6020 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Liuzhou is 6130 yuan/ton, unchanged. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5686 yuan/ton, with a环比 decrease of 51; that of Thai sugar is 5715 yuan/ton, with a环比 decrease of 50 [2]. - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1407 yuan/ton, with a环比 decrease of 4; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1385 yuan/ton, with a环比 decrease of 4. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 197 yuan/ton, with a环比 increase of 8; that of Thai sugar is 168 yuan/ton, with a环比 increase of 7 [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1480 thousand hectares, with an increase of 60 thousand hectares. The sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, with a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 1110.72 million tons, with an increase of 36.01 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume is 724.46 million tons, with an increase of 124.88 million tons. The national industrial sugar inventory is 386.26 million tons, with a decrease of 88.95 million tons; the national sugar sales rate is 65.22%, with an increase of 9.43 percentage points [2]. - The monthly sugar import volume is 130000 tons, with an increase of 60000 tons. The total monthly sugar export volume from Brazil is 225.66 million tons, with an increase of 70.4 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, with an increase of 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 3.9%, with an increase of 0.9 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.87%, with a环比 decrease of 0.96; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 8.88%, with a环比 decrease of 0.94. The 20 - day historical volatility is 5.27%, with an increase of 0.31; the 60 - day historical volatility is 8.94%, with a环比 decrease of 0.05 [2]. Industry News - In May, the quantity of raw sugar exported from Brazil to China exceeded 500000 tons, and the cumulative amount from January to May reached over 900000 tons [2].
白糖日报-20250616
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-16 08:46
行业 白糖日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 16 日 研究员:王海峰 021-60635728 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0230741 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 021-60635732 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号:F3076808 研究员:刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员:林贞磊 研究员:余兰兰 研究员:洪辰亮 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1:期货行情 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | | 收盘价(元/吨 | 美分 ...
越南对泰国蔗糖产品启动双反日落复审调查
news flash· 2025-06-16 07:01
Core Viewpoint - Vietnam has initiated a sunset review investigation on anti-dumping and countervailing duties for cane sugar products originating from Thailand, reflecting ongoing trade tensions and regulatory scrutiny in the sugar industry [1] Group 1: Investigation Details - On June 13, 2025, Vietnam's Ministry of Industry and Trade announced the initiation of the first sunset review investigation on cane sugar products from Thailand [1] - The original anti-dumping and countervailing investigations began on September 21, 2020, leading to a final ruling on June 16, 2021, which imposed anti-dumping duties of 42.99% and countervailing duties of 4.65% for five years [1] - A mid-term review was conducted on September 13, 2022, resulting in adjustments to the anti-dumping duties ranging from 25.73% to 42.99% and countervailing duties from 0% to 4.65% as of August 8, 2023 [1] Group 2: Product Scope - The products involved in this investigation include refined sugar and raw sugar, categorized under Vietnam's tax codes 1701.13.00, 1701.14.00, 1701.91.00, 1701.99.10, 1701.99.90, and 1702.90.91 [1]