白糖市场2026年年报 白糖：潮生自有回落处 江阔终归海样深 ——2025年白糖市场回顾与2026年展望 方正中期期货研究院 农产品团队 王亮亮 Z0017427 ➢ 摘要： 2025 年底随着我国南方蔗糖厂开榨，国内新糖供应递增，叠加年内糖进口放量， 国内糖期现货价格齐跌。目前郑糖主力合约技术层面仍处于下行通道，各月份合约 也形成了近强远弱的反向市场格局，体现出市场对于后市价格的悲观预期。 2026 年全球食糖供应宽松格局持续，国际糖价预计仍将偏弱运行。目前巴西榨 季进入尾声，一季度关注印度及泰国糖开榨产量及出口落地情况。市场预计新榨季 两国糖增产，并且印度将糖出口配额上调至 150 万吨，但印度糖目前出口倒挂，关 注印度政府是否会采取出口补贴等手段完成其出口任务。2026 年一季度斋月备货也 正值巴西停榨的窗口期，往年来看这一阶段国际糖价易涨难跌，预计 2026 年一季度 国际原糖价格同样有望止跌反弹，而印度如果此时增加糖的出口或将限制糖价的涨 幅。目前来看，巴西糖生产情况较为乐观，弱拉尼娜背景下巴西甘蔗减产的概率不 大，2026 年巴西糖仍有望增产，并且巴西玉米乙醇成本低于甘蔗乙醇，巴西政府提 升乙醇强 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is strategically selling idle assets to enhance resource integration, focus on core business, and improve liquidity, with total transaction amounts reaching 46.5 million yuan [2][4]. Group 1: Asset Sales - The company plans to sell the Huazi Hotel and its associated marketing building to Baotou Grassland Sugar Industry for 29.1 million yuan [2][5]. - Additionally, the company intends to sell an office building, warehouse, and related land use rights to Inner Mongolia Maibinli Supermarket for 17.4 million yuan [2][4]. - The total amount from both transactions is 46.5 million yuan [2]. Group 2: Financial Details - The office building and warehouse have a book value of 378.36 million yuan, with the sale price to Inner Mongolia Maibinli representing a premium of 359.88% over the book value [3]. - The Huazi Hotel and marketing building have a book value of 1,487.01 million yuan, with the sale price representing a premium of 95.69% over the book value [5]. - The assessed value of the assets sold to Inner Mongolia Maibinli is 1,522.46 million yuan, while the assessed value of the Huazi Hotel and marketing building is 2,312.7 million yuan [3][5]. Group 3: Strategic Rationale - The company aims to divest non-core assets to enhance liquidity and operational efficiency, as the Huazi Hotel has been non-operational since 2018 [4][5]. - The transactions are expected to positively impact the company's current financial performance, pending final audit confirmation [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Huazi Industrial (600191.SH), plans to sell its hotel and associated marketing building to Baotou Grassland Sugar Industry Group for a transaction amount of RMB 29.10 million, aiming to divest non-core assets and enhance liquidity and operational efficiency [1] Group 1 - The sale involves the Huazi Hotel, which has not been operational since 2018 and has been used minimally for temporary accommodations for visiting clients [1] - The decision to sell is part of the company's strategy to rationally allocate resources and focus on its core business [1] - The transaction is expected to improve the company's asset operation efficiency and financial flexibility [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term weakness in the sugar market is expected, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - It is currently estimated that the sugar production of major sugar - producing countries will increase in the new crushing season, and the global supply - demand relationship will change from shortage to surplus. International sugar prices may not improve significantly until the first quarter of next year. With the continuous opening of the profit window for out - of - quota imports in China, the overall view is bearish. However, domestic sugar prices are at a relatively low level, making it more difficult for the long - and short - side to compete, and the probability of a trending market is also lower. Therefore, short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [9] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: In the external market, the raw sugar price rebounded this week. As of Friday, the closing price of the ICE raw sugar March contract was reported at 15.1 cents per pound, up 0.28 cents per pound from the previous week, a rise of 1.89%. In terms of spreads, the raw sugar 3 - 5 spread was reported at 0.41 cents per pound, unchanged from the previous week; the London white sugar 3 - 5 spread was reported at $3.2 per ton, up $0.5 per ton from the previous week; the raw - white spread of the March contract was reported at $96 per ton, down $3 per ton from the previous week. In the domestic market, the Zhengzhou sugar price fluctuated this week. As of Friday, the closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar May contract was reported at 5,214 yuan per ton, down 19 yuan per ton from the previous week, a decline of 0.36%. The spot price in Guangxi was reported at 5,340 yuan per ton, down 20 yuan per ton from the previous week; the basis was reported at 51 yuan per ton, up 1 yuan per ton from the previous week; the 1 - 5 spread was reported at 106 yuan per ton, up 36 yuan per ton from the previous week; the out - of - quota spot import profit was reported at 518 yuan per ton, down 69 yuan per ton from the previous week [9] - **Industry News**: Analysis agency Green Pool expects Thailand's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season to increase by 6% year - on - year to 10.7 million tons. But in the 2026/27 crushing season, sugar production may decrease to 9.9 million tons due to the conversion of sugarcane to cassava. According to data from the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories of India (NFCSF), as of November 30, 2025, India had crushed 48.6 million tons of sugarcane, a year - on - year increase of 15.2 million tons; sugar production was 4.135 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.375 million tons; as of the end of November, the average sugar yield was 8.51%, a year - on - year increase of 0.24 percentage points. Data released by Brazilian shipping agency Williams showed that in the week ending December 10, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 44, compared with 53 in the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded at ports was 1.5131 million tons, a 17.14% decrease from 1.826 million tons in the previous week [9] - **Viewpoints and Strategies**: As mentioned above, short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [9] 3.2. Spread Trend Review - The report presents multiple spread - related charts, including those for spot prices and basis (such as Guangxi Nanning first - grade white sugar price trend and basis between Guangxi Nanning spot and Zhengzhou sugar main - contract), spot - to - spot spreads (e.g., refined sugar basis and production - sales area spread), domestic futures spreads (e.g., Zhengzhou sugar 1 - 5 spread and 5 - 9 spread), internal - external spreads (e.g., out - of - quota spot and futures import profits), raw - white spreads, raw sugar spot premiums and discounts, and sugar - alcohol price ratios. These charts show the spread trends from 2021 to 2025 [17][20][25] 3.3. Domestic Market Situation - **National Production**: The report shows the monthly and cumulative sugar production in China from 20/21 to 24/25 through charts [40] - **Sugar Imports**: It presents the monthly and annual cumulative sugar imports, as well as the monthly and annual cumulative imports of syrup and premixed powder in China from 20/21 to 24/25 through charts [43] - **National Sales**: The monthly sugar sales volume and cumulative production - sales progress in China from 20/21 to 24/25 are shown through charts [48] - **National Industrial Inventory**: The monthly industrial inventory in China from 2021 to 2025 and the Guangxi three - party warehouse inventory from 20/21 to 24/25 are presented through charts [51] 3.4. International Market Situation - **Brazilian Central - South Production**: The report shows the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production, cumulative sugar - making ratio from sugarcane, and cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in Brazil's Central - South region from 21/22 to 25/26 through charts [56] - **Indian Production**: The bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production in India from 20/21 to 24/25 are presented through charts [61] - **Thai Production**: The bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production in Thailand from 20/21 to 24/25 are shown through charts [64] - **Brazilian Shipment Volume**: The sugar inventory in Brazil's Central - South region from 2022 to 2025 and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports from 21/22 to 25/26 are presented through charts [67]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Internationally, Brazilian sugar production is approaching the end of the season, with a significant decline in the sugar - making ratio recently. The international sugar price shows signs of bottoming out and is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Domestically, sugar mills are in the peak of the crushing season, and the supply pressure will increase. However, due to tightened imports and high production costs, the downward space of the price is expected to be limited [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Strategies**: - **Unilateral**: The supply - side pressure of Brazilian sugar is easing as the season nears its end. The international sugar price is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger. In the domestic market, despite high import volumes and increased sales pressure, the price is likely to fluctuate at a low level due to high production costs [4]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [4]. - **Options**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [4]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **International Supply - Demand Pattern Changes**: - The ISO predicts that the global sugar market will have a surplus of 163 tons in the 2025/26 season. Datagro lowers its prediction of the surplus to 100 tons, citing early harvests in Brazil and more cane used for ethanol production. It also reduces the sugar production forecasts of Brazil and India. Meanwhile, major importers like China and Indonesia are increasing their purchases [8]. - **Brazilian Sugar Situation**: - **Production Forecast**: Brazil's sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 4,502 tons, slightly higher than in August and the second - highest in recent years [9]. - **Bi - weekly Sugar - making Ratio**: In the first half of November, the sugar - making ratio in central - southern Brazil decreased significantly compared to the same period last year, while ethanol production increased [11]. - **Accumulated Production**: As of the first half of November in the 2025/26 season, the accumulated sugar production in central - southern Brazil increased by 80 tons year - on - year, despite a decrease in the accumulated cane crushing volume [13]. - **Inventory and Exports**: In November 2025, Brazil's sugar exports decreased compared to the same period last year. As of November, the cumulative exports in the 2025/26 season decreased by 4.3% year - on - year. However, the daily average export volume in the first week of December increased by 21% compared to the whole month of December last year [17]. - **Thailand's Sugar Situation**: - In the 24/25 season, Thailand's sugar production increased by 128 tons year - on - year. In October 2025, sugar exports increased by 37.25% year - on - year, and from January to October 2025, exports increased by 139 tons year - on - year. The 25/26 season is expected to see a slight increase in production and exports of 100 tons each [25]. - **India's Sugar Situation**: - As of November 30, 2025, the cumulative sugar production in India in the 2025/26 season increased by 49.81% year - on - year. The cost of sugar production has risen, and the industry calls for an increase in the minimum selling price [32]. - **Domestic Sugar Situation**: - **Crushing Peak**: As of December 11, in the 25/26 season, 66 sugar mills in Guangxi have started crushing, with a reduction in the designed cane - crushing capacity. As of November 30, the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi and Yunnan has both decreased compared to the same period last year [35]. - **Import Profit**: The import profit of sugar is relatively high [36]. - **Import Volume**: In October 2025, China's sugar imports increased year - on - year. From January to October 2025, the cumulative imports increased by 13.8% year - on - year. The import of syrup and pre - mixed powder decreased. It is expected that the sugar import volume in November will be about 40 tons, lower than the same period last year [44]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - The data mainly includes the cumulative and bi - weekly cane crushing volume, sugar - making ratio, sugar production, inventory, and export volume in central - southern Brazil; the sugar production, export volume, and inventory in Thailand and India; the sugar production, sales, inventory, and import volume in the domestic market. However, the specific data has been summarized in the above - mentioned core logic analysis part [46][51][63].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the successful implementation of mechanized sugarcane harvesting in Guangxi, driven by supportive policies and financial incentives from the company, which aims to enhance efficiency and reduce costs for farmers [1][4][17]. Group 1: Mechanization and Efficiency - The company has deployed four large harvesting machines that can complete the harvesting of a sugarcane field in less than two hours, significantly increasing efficiency compared to manual harvesting [1][9]. - The company has set a target to complete 180,000 tons of mechanized harvesting this season, averaging about 3,000 tons per day [17]. Group 2: Financial Incentives - The company has introduced a transparent fee structure for mechanized harvesting, with costs capped at 100 yuan per ton for combined harvesting and 120 yuan per ton for stepwise harvesting [4][13]. - Farmers using the combined harvesting method receive a direct subsidy of 20 yuan per ton based on net weight upon arrival at the factory, while service providers for stepwise harvesting receive a 10 yuan per ton subsidy [4][13]. Group 3: Training and Management - The cooperative responsible for the harvesting has implemented unified scheduling and management of machinery, optimizing processes and enhancing training to ensure compliance with operational standards [7][15]. - The goal is to have each harvesting machine fill a truck (approximately 15 tons) every 1.5 hours while maintaining low impurity and loss rates [7][15].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract declined, with a weekly drop of approximately 0.36%. The new sugar - making season is entering its peak, supply is increasing, and the spot price is weakening. Without positive drivers, the sugar price is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the future [5]. - Future factors to watch include the domestic new sugar crushing situation and demand [6]. 3) Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract fell this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.36% [5]. - **Market Outlook**: As of the week ending December 10, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports decreased to 44 from 53 the previous week, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped dropped to 1.5131 million tons from 1.826 million tons, a 17.14% decline. In the domestic market, the prices of processed sugar and beet sugar are relatively stable. With the arrival of new sugar from Guangxi in the sales areas and poor market transactions, competition among the three sugar sources has a negative impact on prices. As of now, 66 sugar mills in Guangxi have started crushing in the 25/26 season, 5 fewer than the same period last year, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of 537,500 tons, a decrease of 29,000 tons year - on - year. Four more mills are expected to start next week. In Yunnan, 26 sugar mills have started crushing, 9 more than last year, and more than half of the mills have begun operations [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Sugar Futures**: The price of the US Sugar March contract rose this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.27%. As of November 4, 2025, the non - commercial net short position in raw sugar futures was 195,528 lots, an increase of 28,109 lots from the previous week. Long positions were 165,775 lots, up 1,384 lots, and short positions were 361,303 lots, an increase of 29,493 lots [12]. - **International Raw Sugar Spot Price**: This week, the international raw sugar spot price was 14.59 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.22 cents per pound from last week [16]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar Futures**: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract declined this week, with a weekly drop of approximately 0.36%. The net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou sugar futures was - 63,969 lots, and the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts was 611 [20][27]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar Futures Spread**: The spread between the 5 - 9 contracts of Zhengzhou sugar futures was - 22 yuan/ton, and the spot - Zhengzhou sugar basis was + 246 yuan/ton [32]. - **Spot Market Price**: As of December 12, the new sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5,460 yuan/ton, and the sugar price in Nanning was 5,400 yuan/ton [38]. - **Imported Sugar Cost and Profit**: This week, the estimated profit for in - quota Brazilian sugar was 1,380 yuan/ton, a decrease of 31 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit for out - of - quota Brazilian sugar was 128 yuan/ton, a decrease of 49 yuan/ton. The estimated profit for in - quota Thai sugar was 1,175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 53 yuan/ton; the estimated profit for out - of - quota Thai sugar was 64 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52 yuan/ton [44]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side - Production Increase**: As of the end of October 2025, the total sugar production in the 2024/25 sugar - making season in China was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03% year - on - year [48]. - **Supply Side - Industrial Inventory**: As of August 2025, the domestic sugar industrial inventory was 116,230 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 45,000 tons or 27.91%, and a year - on - year increase of 6,010 tons or 5.45% [51]. - **Supply Side - Imported Sugar Quantity**: In October 2025, China's sugar imports were 750,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 39.62% and a month - on - month increase of 200,000 tons. From January to October 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 3.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.12% [55]. - **Demand Side - Sugar Sales Rate**: As of the end of October 2025, the sugar mills in the 2024/25 sugar - making season had all stopped crushing. The total sugar production in this season was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03% year - on - year [61]. - **Demand Side - Finished Sugar and Soft Drink Production**: In October 2025, China's monthly finished sugar production was 883,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 36.1%. The monthly soft drink production was 10.962 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3% [65]. 3.4 Option and Stock - Related Markets - **Option Market**: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options for sugar this week is presented, but no specific value is mentioned in the text [66]. - **Stock Market - Nanning Sugar Industry**: A chart of the price - to - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry is provided, but no specific analysis or value is given in the text [70].

不完全统计，截至目前不完全统计，25/26榨季广西已开榨糖厂56家，同比减少11家；日榨甘蔗产能42.5万 数据来源第三方(同花顺、wind)，观点仅供参考，市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 吨，同比减少11.25万吨，本周预计将有10家糖厂开榨。云南开榨糖厂已达12家，同比增加6家。总体上， 研究员: 王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021556 市场糖源多样，现货价格走弱，后市维持弱势，关注需求变化。 免责声明 白糖产业日报 2025-12-11 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) | 5245 | -83 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 391467 | 149966 | | | 仓单数量:白糖(日,张) | 611 | 215 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:白糖(日,手) | -65573 | -8850 | | | 有效仓单预报:白糖:小计(日,张) 进口加工估算价(配额内):巴西糖(日,元/ ...

Core Insights - The sugarcane planting area in Guangxi for the 2024/25 season is projected to be 11.35 million acres, an increase of 110,000 acres year-on-year, with sugar production expected to reach 6.46 million tons, up by 280,000 tons, marking a ten-year high [1][2] - Guangxi has maintained the largest sugarcane planting area and sugar production in the country for 34 consecutive seasons, with a sugar production rate of 13.3%, an increase of 1.22 percentage points year-on-year, setting a historical record for the region [1] Summary by Sections Sugarcane Planting and Production - The sugarcane planting area in Guangxi has increased to 11.35 million acres, with a sugar production of 6.46 million tons, both figures representing significant year-on-year growth [1] - The sugar production rate has reached 13.3%, the highest in Guangxi's history, reflecting improvements in agricultural practices and management [1] Agricultural Management and Technology - Guangxi has enhanced the management of sugarcane production protection zones, resulting in a reduction of non-cane crop areas by 245,600 acres and an increase in sugarcane planting by 270,600 acres [1] - The promotion of high-quality sugarcane varieties has led to a new planting area of approximately 5.31 million acres, surpassing 5 million acres for the first time since the implementation of the subsidy policy in 2020 [1] Industry Chain and Value Addition - Guangxi is extending the sugar industry chain by promoting deep processing of sugar and high-value utilization of by-products, with significant developments in new product lines such as sugarcane vinegar and sugarcane beer [2] - The region has achieved a 100% utilization rate of bagasse, molasses, and filter mud, with over 40% of sugarcane leaves being utilized effectively [2] Future Projections - For the 2025/26 season, the sugarcane planting area is expected to reach 12.34 million acres, an increase of 990,000 acres, with an estimated sugarcane crushing volume of around 55 million tons and farmer income projected at approximately 30 billion yuan [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The New York raw sugar futures fluctuated downward on Friday, with the main March contract closing down 1.08% to 14.66 cents per pound. The main March contract of London ICE white sugar futures closed down 0.9% to $418.80 per ton. The market is stimulated by the decline in Brazil's sugar - making ratio and early harvest, and the dry weather in central - southern Brazil supports the sugar price, while the increasing supply in the Northern Hemisphere suppresses it [7]. - The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar weakened yesterday. The 05 contract closed at 5,225 yuan per ton, down 21 yuan or 0.4%, with an increase of 24,848 positions. The domestic new sugar price remained stable. Fundamentally, the number of sugar mills in the south starting production is increasing, the market lacks confidence, and downstream purchasing willingness is low. The 01 contract of Zhengzhou sugar is stable due to the scarcity of warehouse receipts, and short - selling funds continue to suppress the 05 contract [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market Quotes**: SR601 closed at 5,328 yuan per ton, down 0.22%, with a position of 241,501 lots; SR605 closed at 5,225 yuan per ton, down 0.40%, with a position of 349,420 lots; US sugar 03 closed at 14.66 cents per pound, down 1.08%, with a position of 454,182 lots; US sugar 05 closed at 14.30 cents per pound, down 0.97%, with a position of 196,694 lots [7]. - **Analysis of Market Conditions**: The New York raw sugar futures and London ICE white sugar futures both declined. The domestic Zhengzhou sugar main contract also weakened. The domestic new sugar price remained stable, and the supply in the south increased while the downstream demand was weak [7][8]. 3.2 Industry News - **Thailand**: Due to the sharp drop in sugar prices and the disease in some sugarcane fields, Thai sugarcane farmers are turning to cassava. The 2025/26 sugar production is expected to increase by 6% year - on - year to 10.7 million tons, but may decline by 7.5% to 9.9 million tons in 2026/27. The 2025/26 sugarcane purchase price is expected to drop by 22% year - on - year to 900 Thai baht per ton (about $28.29) [9]. - **Yunnan, China**: From December 8 - 10, 10 new sugar mills started production in Yunnan, and 2 more are expected to start this week. As of now, 26 sugar mills have started production in the 2025/26 season, 9 more than the same period last year, with an expected daily sugarcane crushing capacity of 99,600 tons, an increase of 43,100 tons compared to the same period last year [9]. - **Brazil**: Brazil exported about 3.3023 million tons of sugar in November, a year - on - year decrease of 2.48%. From April to November in the 2025/26 season, Brazil cumulatively exported 25.2591 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 4.91% [9]. - **India**: The average production cost of sugar in India has risen to 41.72 rupees per kilogram. The industry calls for an increase in the minimum selling price of sugar, which has not changed for more than six years. From the start of the 2025 - 26 season to November 30, 2025, sugar production reached 4.108 million tons, compared with 2.876 million tons in the same period last year, and the number of sugar mills in operation increased to 428 from 376 last year [8][9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides data on spot trends, 2601 contract basis, SR1 - 5 spread, Brazil raw sugar import profit, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, Brazilian real exchange rate, and the trading and position data of the top 20 seats of the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar, with data sources mainly from Wind, Pan - Sugar Technology, and Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange [12][14][21]