农林牧渔 2025 年 05 月 05 日 相关研究报告 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -29% -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 农林牧渔 沪深300 《2025Q1 农业板块公募重仓持股占 比下降，中宠股份获逆势增持—行业 周报》-2025.4.27 《2025Q1 农业板块公募基金重仓持 股占比下降，中宠股份获逆势增持— 行业点评报告》-2025.4.24 《3 月肉鸡价格小幅回暖，关注五一 和端午需求回暖支撑价格—行业点评 报告》-2025.4.22 2024 年养殖板块利润同比高增，宠物板块高景气延 续 ——行业周报 | 陈雪丽（分析师） | 王高展（联系人） | 朱本伦（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | chenxueli@kysec.cn | wanggaozhan@kysec.cn | zhubenlun@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520030001 | 证书编号：S0790123060055 | 证书编号：S0790124060020 | wanggaozhan@kyse ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has demonstrated strong growth in revenue and net profit, indicating a robust performance in the pet food industry, supported by effective brand marketing and channel expansion [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.245 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.22%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 625 million yuan, up 45.68% [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.48 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 34.82%, and a net profit of 204 million yuan, which is a 37.68% increase [1]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 42.27%, an increase of 5.43 percentage points year-on-year, while Q1 2025 gross margin was 41.56%, up 0.42 percentage points [1]. Cost and Investment - The sales expense ratio for 2024 was 20.1%, an increase of 3.45 percentage points year-on-year, and for Q1 2025, it was 17.81%, up 0.52 percentage points [1]. - The company invested 437 million yuan in new construction projects, including a 100,000-ton pet food project and a factory in Thailand, with progress at 35.4% and 52.9% respectively [2]. Brand and Market Position - The company has established a strong brand presence in the domestic market with its core brands "MaiFuDi" and "FuLieJiaTe" [2]. - The company has increased its marketing efforts through diversified online platforms, leading to a significant rise in brand awareness [2]. Sales Channels - Sales from third-party platforms (including Alibaba, Douyin, and JD.com) reached 1.969 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 37.72% of total revenue, a year-on-year increase of 59.33% [2]. - Direct sales channels generated 1.415 billion yuan, representing 27.10% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 52.69% [2]. Industry Outlook - The pet food sector is expected to maintain high growth rates, with leading companies like the one in focus likely to benefit from the Matthew effect, expanding their advantages and achieving better performance [2]. - According to Deloitte's report, the compound annual growth rates for pet staple food, nutritional products, and snacks are projected to reach 17%, 15%, and 25% respectively by 2026 [2]. Investment Recommendations - The company is positioned as a leading player in the pet food industry, with expectations of continued revenue growth driven by its brand, products, and channel advantages [2]. - Forecasts for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 are 780 million yuan, 990 million yuan, and 1.26 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.96 yuan, 2.48 yuan, and 3.15 yuan [2].

Core Viewpoint - The company has demonstrated strong revenue and profit growth in 2024, driven by both domestic and international business expansion in the pet food sector [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.465 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.15% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 394 million yuan, marking a significant year-on-year growth of 68.89% [1]. - The company's net profit excluding non-recurring items was 386 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 71.74% [1]. - For Q1 2025, total revenue was 1.101 billion yuan, up 25.41% year-on-year [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025 was 91.155 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.13% [1]. - The net profit excluding non-recurring items for Q1 2025 was 88.261 million yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 63.75% [1]. Group 2: Brand and Market Development - The company is a leading player in the pet food industry, with a dual-driven strategy of domestic sales and international expansion, which is expected to support continued rapid growth [2]. - Domestic brand business saw accelerated growth, with revenue reaching 1.414 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 30.26% [2]. - The company capitalized on its brands "WANPY," "TOPTREES," and "ZEAL" to capture the domestic mid-to-high-end market, with staple food product revenue increasing by 91.85% [2]. - The gross margin for domestic operations improved to 35.18% [2]. - Internationally, the company generated 3.051 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 14.62% [2]. - The OEM/ODM business remained stable, with successful expansion in the European market, contributing to new growth opportunities [2]. - The company has established production bases not only in China but also in the U.S., New Zealand, Canada, and Cambodia, enhancing its global strategic layout [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its strong performance, with projected net profits of 440 million yuan, 550 million yuan, and 710 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2]. - Corresponding EPS estimates are 1.49 yuan, 1.87 yuan, and 2.42 yuan for the same years, with PE ratios of 32.54, 26.01, and 20.07 [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [2]. Core Insights - In April, the breeding profits improved, and the pet food export volume increased by 20% in Q1 [1]. - The agricultural index outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a rise of 3.3% from early April to April 29, while the CSI 300 fell by 2.89% [5][12]. - The domestic pet food market continues to expand, with a Q1 export value increase of 12% [5]. Summary by Sections Price Indicators and Agricultural Performance - In March, the CPI was down 0.1% year-on-year, with a 46% reduction in agricultural trade deficit [7]. - The total market value of the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector was 12,849.69 billion yuan, accounting for 1.38% of the total A-share market value [12]. Breeding Profits and Pet Food Exports - The breeding profits for pigs improved in April, with the price on April 23 being 15.09 yuan/kg, down 7.2% from the end of 2024 [5][31]. - The number of reproductive sows was 40.39 million, a 1% decrease from the previous quarter [34]. - The pet food market reached a scale of 107.2 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 12.7% from 2017 to 2024 [5]. Investment Recommendations and Stock Pool - Focus on leading pig farming companies with strong cost control and healthy financial conditions, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [5]. - The report suggests monitoring the poultry industry, particularly the yellow-feathered chicken sector, due to potential price increases [5]. - Attention is also drawn to feed industry leaders like Haida Group and animal vaccine companies such as Reap Bio and Kexin Bio [5].

Core Insights - The company reported significant revenue and profit growth for 2024 and Q1 2025, with revenues of 4.47 billion and 1.1 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 19.2% and 25.4% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 and Q1 2025 was 390 million and 90 million yuan, respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 68.9% and 62.1% [1] Revenue Growth - The company's main grain product revenue surged by 92% in 2024, increasing its share of total revenue by 9 percentage points to 25% [2] - Domestic revenue reached 1.4 billion yuan in 2024, up 30% year-on-year, while overseas revenue was 3.1 billion yuan, reflecting a 15% increase [2] Profitability Improvement - The company's gross margin improved by 2 percentage points to 28% in 2024, further rising to 32% in Q1 2025, driven by optimized product structure and lower raw material prices [2] Brand Development and Market Expansion - The company has established a three-brand matrix for domestic market growth, with key products including the "Wanpi Xiaojin Dung" series, leading baked grain products, ZEAL dried food, and staple canned food [2] - The company is actively expanding its overseas presence, with products sold in 73 countries and significant growth in European customers; North American market demand is high, with expansions of factories in the U.S. and Canada expected to be completed in 2026 and the second half of 2025, respectively [2] Marketing Strategy - The company has a clear marketing strategy for its three main brands, utilizing diverse channels such as influencer marketing, social media, and partnerships with national media to enhance brand recognition [3] - Sales expense ratios for 2024 and Q1 2025 were 11.1% and 11.4%, respectively, reflecting increases of 0.8 percentage points and 1 percentage point year-on-year [3] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 5.34 billion, 6.458 billion, and 7.68 billion yuan, with net profits of 452 million, 595 million, and 710 million yuan, respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 37.74, 28.66, and 24.02 [3]

乖宝宠物 20250428 摘要 • 国产替代和消费升级是宠物食品行业的主要趋势，中高端国产品牌如弗莱 加特、鲜朗等在 2024 年双十一榜单中表现突出，标志着国产替代的成功， 烘焙粮作为新兴品类，驱动消费升级。 • 2025 年宠物食品行业关键词包括猫经济（精细化喂养、多猫家庭）、小 型犬增加（高端粮需求）和老龄化（老年猫狗定制粮需求增加，价格更 高）。 • 乖宝宠物表现优秀的原因在于历史优势（抓住互联网渠道红利，与京东合 作），综合能力（营销、产品力、供应链）以及自有供应链带来的主粮赛 道优势（配方沉淀、差异化品牌）。 • 乖宝宠物通过打造全价格带品牌矩阵（麦富迪为主品牌，弗莱加特为高 端），提升收入和利润率，上市以来业绩超预期，收入利润增速加速，在 内需标的池中稀缺性突出。 • 公司历史对乖宝发展影响重大，2013 年转向国内品牌化，抓住互联网渠 道红利，迎合 90 后养宠潮及国货信任度提升，这些先发优势难以逾越。 Q&A 国内宠物食品行业的发展趋势是什么？ 国内宠物食品行业依然保持高双位数的增长，尤其在线上渠道表现突出。2024 年天猫平台的增速超过 15%，抖音平台的增速约为 60%。尽管线下渠道因 ...

Fixed Income Research - The issuance scale of credit bonds has increased to a historical high, with most yields continuing to rise [2] - The net financing amount of credit bonds has increased, with medium-term notes and short-term financing bonds seeing positive net financing [2] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with a focus on the impact of growth policies on the bond market [2] Fund Research - The performance of the SME board index has been outstanding, while there has been significant outflow from broad-based indices [4] - The public fund market is facing pressure due to fee reforms and increased market volatility, leading to a noticeable trend of industry differentiation [5] - Equity funds have performed well, with mixed-asset funds showing positive returns, while bond funds have had average performance [5] Industry Research - The real estate market is stabilizing due to supportive policies, with improved transaction conditions and a positive outlook for housing demand [3] - The pet food market is experiencing a trend towards premiumization, with significant growth expected in the domestic pet market [9] - The home furnishing sector is showing signs of improvement, although some companies are still facing challenges [10] Company Research - The company reported a revenue of 1.592 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit increase of 48.50%, but faced a decline in Q1 2025 revenue [12] - The outdoor and chip businesses have shown growth, with the chip business achieving a revenue increase of 66.56% in 2024 [15] - The company is focusing on enhancing its core brands and optimizing supply chain management to improve profitability [13][14]

"已经有代理商发出通知，百利16号开始涨价。我已经开始囤货了，还有两袋在路上。建议大家买回来抽真空，不然囤太多会变质"，大洋彼岸川普的离谱 操作，让中国消费者瞬间紧张起来。但与此同时，4月初百利天猫旗舰店的客服表示，"目前百利产品库存充足，暂未制定调价计划"，多个美国品牌旗舰 店都发出相似的通知。 如果关税战持续，至少宠粮、宠物药品、以及加工工厂都会受到影响。国内宠物食品行业依赖的美国产膨化机，医药领域的关键抗生素原料等，这些短期 内都难以找到成熟替代方案。像辉瑞、硕腾等国际药企的处方药，很可能面临翻倍的价格增长。 对于一个产业链条极长、复杂的产品，一个动因最终传导至终端的变化可能不会很快，且充满变数和多重可能性。消费者的恐慌情绪往往比现实反馈来得 更早。 "宠物店天塌了"，美国洗护品牌占据半壁江山…保健品和药品可能会面临成本激增和库存压力。 "养猫人天塌了"，吃渴望、爱肯拿等高端猫粮的消费者很紧张。但与此同时我们也在小红书等平台看到，其实有更大比例的消费者早已转头国产粮阵地。 但从剁椒与消费者交流，以及在社交媒体观察，截至四月底各类美国进口产品没有发生结构性的价格震荡。 剁椒在本文聚焦的核心领域在宠粮，宠粮 ...

截至4月29日晚19时，共有近5300家A股公司披露2024年年报，占A股公司总数的98%。2024年，近六成 A股公司收入保持增长，申万一级行业中，电子、汽车、计算机等行业整体收入增长可观。 与此同时，已有逾5100家A股公司披露了2025年一季报，其中超六成企业一季度营收实现增长，贵金 属、风电设备、影视院线、游戏、休闲食品等板块一季度保持较高景气度。 龙头企业展现定力 从收入端来看，超过3000家A股公司2024年营业收入同比实现增长，占A股公司的六成。其中，超1000 家公司收入同比增幅超过20%，逾200家公司收入增幅超过50%。 多家创新药企业收入爆发式增长。在收入增幅前20名的企业中，有智翔金泰-U、亚虹医药-U、百利天 恒、迪哲医药-U等多家创新药企业。百利天恒2024年收入达到58.2亿元，同比增长936.3%；归母净利润 达到37亿元，同比扭亏。 今年春节档电影票房刷新多项历史纪录，《哪吒之魔童闹海》进入全球影史票房前列。Wind数据显 示，影视院线板块一季度营业收入同比增长44.51%，居各行业榜首。 今年1月实施或延续的家电以旧换新、消费电子国补等政策，对家电、消费电子等板块带动作用明 ...

Industry Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The pet industry is experiencing significant growth, with the urban dog and cat consumption market reaching 300.2 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%. The dog consumption market is valued at 155.7 billion yuan, growing by 4.6%, while the cat consumption market is at 144.5 billion yuan, increasing by 10.7% [4][14] - The demographic shift towards younger pet owners, particularly among the post-90s and post-00s generations, is driving demand for pet products and services. The post-90s account for 41.2% of pet owners, while the post-00s represent 25.6%, marking a significant increase of 15.5 percentage points year-on-year [5][18] - The online sales channel for pet food has become dominant, with over 80% of pet owners purchasing staple food through traditional online channels. The Taobao and Tmall platforms hold over 50% market share in the pet industry, with a significant increase in user engagement and sales [6][46] Summary by Sections Pet Industry Scale - The pet market is expanding, with the urban dog and cat consumption market surpassing 300 billion yuan for the first time. The growth is driven by the increasing number of young pet owners and their willingness to spend on pet care [4][14] - The pet population is also on the rise, with the number of pet dogs reaching 52.58 million and pet cats at 71.53 million in 2024, reflecting a growth of 1.6% and 2.5% respectively compared to 2023 [14][25] Online Channel Transformation - The e-commerce landscape for pet products is evolving, with a multi-polar structure forming. Taobao and Tmall dominate the online market, while Douyin (TikTok) is rapidly gaining traction, showing a 65% year-on-year growth in the pet category [6][52] - Major promotional events like Double Eleven have demonstrated strong consumer resilience, with significant increases in sales across various platforms, indicating a robust market for pet products [6][57] Offline Channel Upgrade - Offline retail for pet products is recovering, with a notable increase in the number of pet hospitals and stores. The offline channel accounts for 44% of total consumer spending in the pet industry, highlighting the importance of physical services [7][66] - The medical market for pets is substantial, comprising nearly 30% of the overall market share, with a rapid increase in the number of pet hospitals, totaling 28,975 by the end of 2024 [7][80] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the dual themes of "domestic substitution and consumption upgrade" within the pet economy. Recommended stocks include: "Guibao Pet," "Petty Co.," "Zhongchong Co.," and "Lusi Co." [8]