Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "in line with the market," indicating that the industry index is expected to fluctuate between -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [49]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector has shown resilience, with the food and beverage index slightly declining but outperforming the market. In April 2025, the index had a range of -0.23%, while the CSI 300 index declined by 3% [4][6]. - The sector's valuation has increased but remains at a historically low level, with a valuation of 22.18 times as of April 30, 2025, reflecting an 11.35% increase from March [13][21]. - The performance of individual stocks within the sector has improved, with a notable increase in the number of rising stocks, particularly in snacks, dairy, and soft drinks [18][4]. - Investment in the food and beverage manufacturing sector has continued to grow significantly, with fixed asset investments in food manufacturing up 18% year-on-year as of March 2025, compared to a 4.2% increase in overall social fixed asset investment [21][4]. - Domestic production of various consumer goods has shown mixed results, with some categories like wine and beer continuing to decline, while fresh and frozen meat production has increased [24][25][27]. - Import trends indicate a significant decrease in the quantities of corn and wheat, while imports of high-end dairy products have surged, suggesting a recovery in domestic dairy inventory [29][31][32]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The food and beverage index outperformed the market, with a cumulative increase of 0.5% from January to April 2025, surpassing the CSI 300 index by approximately 2.9 percentage points [7][4]. - In April 2025, the snack sector rose by 32.45%, soft drinks by 12.67%, and dairy by 6.26%, while other alcoholic beverages saw a slight increase of 5.45% [6][4]. 2. Valuation - As of April 30, 2025, the food and beverage sector's valuation was 22.18 times, which is still lower than 16 other sectors, indicating potential for growth [13][21]. 3. Stock Performance - In April 2025, 67 out of 127 listed companies in the food and beverage sector saw their stock prices rise, with significant gains in the snack and dairy segments [18][4]. 4. Investment Trends - The food and beverage manufacturing sector has maintained high investment growth, with fixed asset investments significantly outpacing overall social investment growth [21][4]. 5. Production and Imports - Domestic production of essential consumer goods has shown a trend of decline in categories like wine and beer, while fresh meat production has increased [24][25][27]. - Import data reveals a sharp decline in corn and wheat imports, while high-end dairy product imports have increased, indicating a shift in domestic consumption patterns [29][31][32]. 6. Pricing Trends - Prices for various raw materials, including milk and vegetable oils, have shown a downward trend, while some packaging materials have seen price increases [33][34][35]. 7. Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in sectors such as liquor, soft drinks, dairy, beer, and snacks, with a specific stock portfolio suggested for May 2025 [44][46].

Group 1 - The market is expected to continue its fluctuations in the medium term, with accelerated style rotation, supported by monetary policy easing and strong export performance [1] - China's export focus has successfully shifted towards ASEAN and EU markets, leading to stable export growth despite basic economic downward expectations [1] - The market may experience a rotation pattern of "risk aversion - consumption - growth" in May [1] Group 2 - A-share market is experiencing accelerated rotation, with a rebound in financing activity and a shift towards small and mid-cap growth stocks [2] - The combination of policies aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations supports risk appetite, while structural market conditions are expected to prevail [2] - Key internal certainty clues include potential benefits for large-cap stocks and public utilities from new public fund regulations, and opportunities in sectors like military electronics and renewable energy equipment [2] Group 3 - Strategic metals are likely to undergo a value reassessment due to increased export control measures and the importance of these resources in the current international political context [3] - The crackdown on smuggling and export of strategic minerals is deemed urgent and significant for national security and development interests [3] - Prices of strategic metals such as rare earths, tungsten, and antimony are expected to rise, indicating a potential investment opportunity in the strategic metals sector [3]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report from CITIC Securities highlights the importance of boosting consumption as a key driver for economic growth, with the food and beverage sector expected to benefit significantly from this focus on domestic demand [1] - The white liquor sector is projected to achieve total revenue of 441.94 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.66%, with net profit expected to reach 166.85 billion yuan, also up 7.60% [1] - The beer segment is showing signs of recovery, with sales and profit margins improving, indicating that it may have entered a growth phase [19] Group 2: Sector Analysis - **White Liquor**: The industry is currently facing a deep adjustment period, with sales pressures due to weak demand in gifting and banquet consumption, but leading companies are expected to strengthen their market positions through brand and operational advantages [1][6] - **Pre-processed Foods**: The sector is experiencing weak performance due to sluggish B-end restaurant demand, but is expected to benefit from a recovery in the C-end market, particularly in pre-prepared dishes [17] - **Dairy Products**: The dairy sector's revenue for 2024 is projected at 292.5 billion yuan, down 7.7% year-on-year, with net profit declining by 38.5% to 12.92 billion yuan [21][22] - **Snack Foods**: The sector is thriving, particularly with the popularity of konjac products, and companies are adapting to new retail formats like discount stores [24] - **Soft Drinks**: The functional beverage market continues to expand, with a notable increase in demand for sugar-free tea and functional drinks [26] - **Yellow Wine**: Leading companies in the yellow wine sector are expanding their advantages and driving the industry's high-end development [30]

分析师：魏红梅 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340513040002 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn 分析师：黄冬祎 超配（维持） 食品饮料行业双周报（2025/04/25-2025/05/08） 业绩表现分化，关注景气细分 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 行 业 研 究 2025 年 5 月 9 日 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523020001 电话：0769-22119410 邮箱： huangdongyi@dgzq.com.cn 证 券 研 究 报 告 食品饮料行业 行 业 周 报 食品饮料（申万）指数走势 资料来源：同花顺,东莞证券研究所 相关报告 ◼ 行情回顾：2025年4月25日-2025年5月8日，SW食品饮料行业指数整体上 涨0.64%，板块涨幅位居申万一级行业第二十六位，跑输同期沪深300指 数约1.17个百分点。 ◼ 行业周观点：业绩表现分化，关注景气细分。受外围市场扰动，提振内 需将成为推动国内经济增长的重要一 ...

食品饮料行业 2025 年 5 月 9 日 分析师：魏红梅 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340513040002 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn 分析师：黄冬祎 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523020001 电话：0769-22119410 邮箱： huangdongyi@dgzq.com.cn 超配 （维持） 内部分化，复苏在途 食品饮料行业 2024 年与 2025 年一季度业绩综述 食品饮料（申万）指数走势 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，同花顺 相关报告 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 业 绩 综 述 行 业 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 ◼ 食品饮料行业2024年业绩增速放缓，2025Q1业绩微增。2024年SW食品饮料 行业实现营业总收入10915.80亿元，同比增长3.92%，增速同比下降3.95个 百分点；实现归母净利润2171.12亿元，同比增长5.51%，增速同比下降 11.74个百分点。今年一季度，食品饮料行业整体 ...

Core Viewpoint - The FBIF2025 Food and Beverage Innovation Forum and FBIF Food Innovation Exhibition will be held from May 8-10, 2025, in Shanghai, focusing on industry trends and innovation across various product categories such as dairy, snacks, baking, and beverages [1]. Group 1: Event Details - The forum will discuss industry trends and innovation cases from different perspectives, including product categories, industry strategy, functional ingredients, marketing, channels, packaging, and product development [1]. - The event will feature the new FBIF Wow Food Innovation Award 2025 ceremony and an exhibition covering over 62,000 square meters [1]. Group 2: Key Speakers and Insights - Marcy Kou, Managing Director of Kantar Consumer Index Asia, will present insights on successful dairy concepts that resonate with consumers, based on real consumer insights from the global and Asia-Pacific markets [1]. - Zhao Hui, General Manager of Kantar Consumer Index North China, will chair the second day of the dairy innovation forum, focusing on innovative paths in the dairy industry to help companies discover new growth points in a complex market environment [4][6].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that a barbell strategy will remain effective from a mid-term perspective, with manageable risks at the index level in the short term, suggesting a moderate approach to capture structural opportunities [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The report recommends taking profits on low-beta dividends while increasing allocation to sectors with strong policy support, favorable earnings reports, and positive marginal catalysts, specifically in TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and domestic consumption [1] - Within the TMT sector, there is a focus on the cloud computing chain, which has high visibility in demand [1] - In domestic consumption, attention is drawn to service consumption in Hong Kong and high-cost-performance varieties in A-shares, such as dairy products and condiments, which show improvements in turnover and profit margins [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside in the stock price [4][10]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 115.78 billion for 2024, a year-on-year decline of 8.2%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 8.45 billion, down 19% [5]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 33.02 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, with a net profit of RMB 4.87 billion, down 17.7% [5]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of RMB 12.2 per 10 shares, resulting in a dividend yield of approximately 4.24% [5]. Revenue Breakdown - The product mix includes liquid milk (59.98%), milk powder and dairy products (26.92%), and frozen products (12.54%) [2]. - In Q4 2024, liquid milk revenue was RMB 17.48 billion, down 13% year-on-year, while milk powder and dairy products revenue increased by 8.7% to RMB 8.35 billion [6]. Cost and Profitability - The gross margin in Q4 2024 decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 31%, primarily due to changes in product mix [6]. - The company reported a significant impairment loss of RMB 30.4 billion related to goodwill, impacting overall profitability [6]. Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of RMB 10.71 billion, RMB 12.18 billion, and RMB 13.40 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 26.7%, 13.8%, and 10% [8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for the same years are projected to be RMB 1.68, RMB 1.91, and RMB 2.11, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 17x, 15x, and 14x [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside in the stock price [4][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 115.78 billion for 2024, a year-on-year decline of 8.2%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 8.45 billion, down 19% year-on-year [5]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 33.02 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, with a net profit of RMB 4.87 billion, down 17.7% year-on-year [5]. - The company is expected to see gradual improvement in performance from 2025 to 2027, with projected net profits of RMB 10.71 billion, RMB 12.18 billion, and RMB 13.40 billion, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 26.7%, 13.8%, and 10% [8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates in the food and beverage industry, with a market capitalization of RMB 182.37 billion and a current share price of RMB 28.79 [1]. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue for 2024 was RMB 115.78 billion, with a significant decline in net profit due to increased competition and lower birth rates affecting demand [5][6]. - The Q4 2024 results showed a revenue of RMB 26.74 billion, down 7% year-on-year, and a net loss of RMB 2.42 billion [5]. Product Segmentation - The product mix includes liquid milk (59.98%), milk powder and dairy products (26.92%), and frozen products (12.54%) [2]. Future Projections - The company anticipates a recovery in dairy product demand, with expected revenue growth driven by improved consumer confidence and cost advantages from low raw milk prices [6][8]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 1.68, RMB 1.91, and RMB 2.11, respectively [9]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of RMB 12.2 per 10 shares, resulting in a dividend yield of approximately 4.24% [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside in the stock price [4][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 115.78 billion for 2024, a year-on-year decline of 8.2%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 8.45 billion, down 19% [5]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 33.02 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 4.87 billion, a decrease of 17.7% [5]. - The company is expected to see a gradual improvement in performance from 2025 to 2027, with projected net profits of RMB 10.71 billion, RMB 12.18 billion, and RMB 13.40 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 26.7%, 13.8%, and 10% [8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates in the food and beverage industry, with a market capitalization of RMB 182.37 billion and a current share price of RMB 28.79 [1]. Financial Performance - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with a net profit margin impacted by increased competition and lower birth rates affecting dairy demand [5][6]. - The Q4 2024 results showed a revenue of RMB 26.74 billion, down 7% year-on-year, and a net loss of RMB 2.42 billion [5]. Product Segmentation - The product mix includes liquid milk (59.98%), milk powder and dairy products (26.92%), and frozen products (12.54%) [2]. Future Projections - The company anticipates a recovery in dairy demand, with a projected increase in net profit and earnings per share (EPS) over the next few years, with EPS expected to reach RMB 2.11 by 2027 [8][9].