中证报中证网讯(记者魏昭宇)1月7日晚，万家工业有色ETF基金经理贺方舟做客中国证券报"ETF点金 汇"直播间。谈及对工业金属板块的后市预判，他表示，随着美联储降息预期将陷入"胶着"，铜、铝等 资产进入"供需验证期"。在他看来，工业金属板块是受逻辑切换影响最大的板块，其定价将高度依赖于 微观数据。 谈及铜，他表示，这一资产宏观属性强。预期"胶着"时，其金融溢价会受到压制。但当前的核心矛盾在 于其自身极低的全球显性库存和长期供应短缺。因此，价格将在"宏观情绪的摇摆"和"现货紧张的硬约 束"之间剧烈博弈。任何大型基建项目(如"平急两用"设施)或电网投资的超预期，都可能成为突破震荡区 间的催化剂。 谈及铝，他表示，国内对这一资产的定价权更强，其成本(主要是电价)和国内供给侧"天花板"是核心。 需求更依赖于地产竣工和汽车轻量化的实际进度。海外降息预期的摇摆对其影响相对间接，更多通过全 球增长预期和汇率渠道传导。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global economy is expected to show moderate recovery in 2026, supported by ample liquidity and a gradual recovery in inventory and profit cycles, shifting the market narrative from valuation recovery to profit support [1][30]. Group 1: Overseas Macro - The global economy will continue to recover, with K-shaped economic characteristics persisting but narrowing. Major economies are projected to have varied GDP growth rates: the US at 2.4%, Eurozone at 1.0%, Japan at 0.8%, and emerging markets at 4.2% [2][30]. - Global inflation is on a downward trend, with expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates 2-3 times in 2026, leading to a decrease in short-term rates [31][30]. Group 2: Domestic Macro - Fiscal policies are expected to drive investment recovery in major economic provinces, with a focus on infrastructure, manufacturing recovery, and a narrowing decline in real estate sales and investment [8][35]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is anticipated to rise initially before stabilizing, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) may see moderate increases. The profit cycle is gradually recovering, with improvements expected in various sectors [9][35]. Group 3: Liquidity Environment - A clear trend of global liquidity easing is established, with the Federal Reserve leading improvements in overseas liquidity. Domestic monetary policy is expected to align with fiscal measures, potentially leading to interest rate cuts [12][38]. - The supply of funds is likely to be dominated by institutional capital, with private equity funds potentially driving high-net-worth individuals back into equity allocations [14][38]. Group 4: Strategic Allocation Directions - The market is expected to shift from valuation recovery to profit-driven dynamics in 2026, with Chinese assets still having room for valuation recovery [41][42]. - Key sectors to focus on include technology and advanced manufacturing, traditional export chains, and industries with increasing overseas revenue proportions [42][45]. - Future industry themes may include smart manufacturing, next-generation communications, advanced materials, and future energy solutions [47].

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of the Huabao Nonferrous Metal ETF (159876) indicates strong investor interest, with a significant net subscription of 56.4 million units and a total inflow of 97.49 million yuan over the past five days, suggesting a bullish sentiment in the nonferrous metals sector [1][5]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The Huabao Nonferrous Metal ETF saw an intraday price increase of over 1.6%, reaching a new high before stabilizing near the waterline, currently down 0.28% with a trading volume exceeding 69 million yuan [1]. - The ETF's trading volume is approaching the total volume of the previous day, indicating potential for further upward movement [1]. Group 2: Component Stocks - Leading stocks in the rare earth sector showed significant gains, with Zhongqi Rare Earth hitting the daily limit, and other companies like China Rare Earth and Northern Rare Earth rising over 6% and 4% respectively [3]. - Other notable performers include Xingye Silver Tin, which rose over 5%, and Huayou Cobalt and Western Superconducting, both increasing by more than 4% [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The Chinese government is considering tightening export license reviews for medium and heavy rare earth items, which could impact supply dynamics [4]. - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices reached record highs, with nickel prices surging over 10% to a 19-month peak, driven by supply concerns [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict a favorable outlook for the nonferrous metals market in early 2026, supported by a loose credit policy and seasonal demand ahead of the Spring Festival [5]. - The market is expected to respond positively to the anticipated dovish monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, which may lead to gradual interest rate cuts [5]. Group 5: ETF Coverage - The Huabao Nonferrous Metal ETF and its linked funds comprehensively cover various sectors including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing for better exposure to the entire sector's beta movements [6].

今日（1月7日）揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色ETF华宝（159876）早盘活跃，场内价格盘中涨超 1.6%，续刷上市新高，午后随市盘整，当前在水面附近震荡，现跌0.28%，实时成交额超6900万元，半 日成交已逼近昨日全天成交额，有望继续放量突破上市高点！ ETF放量突破上市高点，或为资金买点信号！截至发稿，有色ETF华宝（159876）获资金实时净申购 5640万份，此前5日连续获资金净流入，合计金额9749万元。伴随火热的行情，资金火速进场布局！ | 序号 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 两日图 | 申万一级行业 | 甲力二级行业 | 申万三级行业 | 总市值 | 成交额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 中穆有色 | 10.00% | ANTALLAND | 有色合腰 | 小金属 | 楊士 | 215亿 | 14.67亿 | | 2 | 中国图土 | 6.01% | ไ | 有色含風 | 小全属 | 梅士 | 5501Z | 37.44Z | | 3 | 兴财银储 | 5.26% | The first of th ...

金属行业 2026 年度策略之工业金属篇：春潮裂壤，沛然 东向 20260106 摘要 特朗普政府 2026 年 6 月 30 日将决定是否对进口到美国的精炼产品加 征关税，该决策将直接影响市场走势，需密切关注。 Q&A 2026 年工业金属市场的主要趋势和特点是什么？ 2026 年工业金属市场的主要趋势和特点可以从供给周期、战略性资源以及具 体金属品种的供需情况三个方面来分析。 首先，当前商品周期是一个供给周期， 其最重要的特征是供给曲线变得更加陡峭。这意味着经济体感与商品价格之间 会出现明显背离，因为当前商品价格更多由边际供需决定，而非总量供需。因 此，商品价格可能会持续超出预期，即使价格上涨，供给紧俏的逻辑仍未被破 坏。 其次，在国与国之间博弈过程中，战略性资源的重要性愈加凸显。具备竞 争优势的国家在未来将拥有更强的话语权。战略性金属不仅体现在资源稀缺性 上，还包括供应链稳定性。如果供应链更为稳定，这些金属在未来博弈中的战 略属性将更加明显，因此这些资源将迎来价值重估。 最后，从具体品种来看， 以铜和铝为例： 铜：由于成熟矿山减产、资本开支水平低等因素，中长期来看铜的供给 端相对紧张。同时，2026 年 ...

1月7日，西部矿业盘中下跌2.00%，截至10:02，报28.38元/股，成交5.47亿元，换手率0.80%，总市值 676.30亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出3617.60万元，特大单买入3578.49万元，占比6.54%，卖出5617.23万 元，占比10.27%；大单买入1.32亿元，占比24.23%，卖出1.48亿元，占比27.12%。 西部矿业今年以来股价涨2.68%，近5个交易日涨6.73%，近20日涨7.91%，近60日涨21.08%。 资料显示，西部矿业股份有限公司位于青海省西宁市海湖新区文逸路4号西矿·海湖商务中心1号楼，成 立日期2000年12月28日，上市日期2007年7月12日，公司主营业务涉及主要从事铜、铅、锌、铁等基本 有色金属、黑色金属的采选、冶炼、贸易等业务。主营业务收入构成为：销售商品99.70%，利息、手 续费及佣金0.27%，提供服务0.03%。 西部矿业所属申万行业为：有色金属-工业金属-铜。所属概念板块包括：有色锌、黄金股、钴镍、有色 铜、稀缺资源等。 截至12月31日，西部矿业股东户数11.55万，较上期增加1.76%；人均流通股20632股，较上期减少 1. ...

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. has shown significant stock price growth and strong financial performance, indicating potential investment opportunities in the company and the industry. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of January 7, Luoyang Molybdenum's stock price increased by 2.03%, reaching 22.12 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.43 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 0.37% [1] - The stock has risen by 10.60% year-to-date, 17.16% over the last five trading days, 18.35% over the last 20 days, and 28.31% over the last 60 days [2] Group 2: Company Overview - Luoyang Molybdenum, established on December 22, 1999, and listed on October 9, 2012, is primarily engaged in the mining, selection, deep processing, trading, and research of precious metals such as molybdenum, tungsten, and gold [2] - The company's revenue composition includes 48.56% from refined metal product trading, 38.31% from concentrate product trading, and smaller contributions from copper (27.14%), cobalt (6.04%), molybdenum (3.12%), and others [2] Group 3: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Luoyang Molybdenum reported a revenue of 145.49 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 5.99%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 72.61% to 14.28 billion CNY [2] - The company has distributed a total of 21.56 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 10.58 billion CNY distributed over the last three years [3] Group 4: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased by 28.08% to 304,200, with an average of 0 shares per shareholder [2] - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holds 695 million shares, an increase of 47.47 million shares, while other ETFs have seen varying changes in their holdings [3]

截至1月6日收盘，沪指涨1.5%，深成指涨1.4%，创业板指涨0.75%，北证50指数涨1.82%，沪深京三市 成交额超2.8万亿元，较上日放量2650亿元。盘面上，全市场超4100只个股上涨。其中有143只个股涨 停，连续两日超百股涨停。 （1月6日市场涨跌情况） 市场热点轮番活跃。板块题材上，脑机接口、化学化工、大金融、有色金属、商业航天、无人驾驶、半 导体等板块涨幅居前。脑机接口今日再度掀起涨停潮，三博脑科、伟思医疗、南京熊猫、国际医学、爱 朋医疗等近20股涨停。商业航天概念持续爆发，10余只成分股涨停，鲁信创投8天6板，北斗星通、中国 卫通6天4板。大金融板块集体拉升，华林证券、大智慧涨停。智能驾驶概念走强，万集科技、路畅科技 等多股涨停。化工板块走高，中泰化学、潞化科技、氯碱化工涨停。有色金属板块表现活跃，洛阳钼 业、紫金矿业等多股创历史新高。 | 序号 | 股票代码 | 股震筒称 | [ 现价(元) | 涨跌幅:前复权(%)(2)。 2026.01.06 | 张跌幅:前复权排名 2026.01.06 | 城市(7) | 所属同花顺行业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the offshore RMB against the USD is expected to positively impact the equity market, with certain sectors likely to benefit from this trend [1][2]. Group 1: Impact of RMB Appreciation on the Market - The RMB has appreciated significantly since April 9, 2025, leading to increased investor interest in its effects on the equity market [1]. - The appreciation of the RMB is believed to improve liquidity and risk appetite in the A-share market, as it encourages foreign capital inflow [2]. - Analysts suggest that the relationship between currency appreciation and stock market performance is complex, influenced by both external monetary policies and internal economic conditions [1][2]. Group 2: Beneficial Sectors - Three asset classes are highlighted for potential investment: industries benefiting from RMB appreciation such as aviation, paper manufacturing, and high-growth sectors like computing and electronics [1][3]. - Specific sectors recommended for investment include steel, chemicals, aviation, industrial metals, and gas, with a focus on how exchange rate fluctuations impact their fundamentals [3]. - The computer and electronics sectors are noted for their high growth potential, while the power equipment sector is expected to benefit from ongoing market recovery [3]. Group 3: Hong Kong Market Performance - Despite the RMB's strength, the Hong Kong stock market has shown relatively weak performance compared to the A-share market since Q4 2025 [3]. - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to enhance the profitability of Hong Kong-listed companies when profits are converted back to HKD, but the overall impact on earnings has been limited due to weaker performance in key sectors [3]. - Analysts anticipate a strong "January effect" for the Hong Kong market in early 2026, driven by factors such as nominal GDP recovery and the revaluation of assets due to RMB appreciation [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing enthusiasm of investors in the A-share market, with a significant rise in new account openings for both individual and institutional investors, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market as the Shanghai Composite Index continues to rise [3][10]. Summary by Sections Investor Participation - In 2025, the total number of new A-share accounts reached 27.4369 million, a year-on-year increase of 9.75%. Individual investors accounted for 27.3324 million new accounts, up 9.67%, while institutional investors opened 10,453.9 thousand accounts, marking a 34.91% increase [5][6]. Monthly Account Openings - December 2025 saw 2.5967 million new A-share accounts opened, a month-on-month increase of 9% and a year-on-year increase of 30.55% compared to December 2024 [5]. The monthly trend showed a peak in March 2025 with 3.0655 million new accounts, followed by a decline in April to 1.9244 million, which was a 59.3% decrease from March [6][7]. Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a bullish trend in 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 18.41%, an increase of nearly 6 percentage points compared to 2024 [10]. The index reached a new high of 4083.67 points on January 6, 2026, following a strong performance after the New Year [11]. Future Market Outlook - Analysts predict that the A-share market will continue to exhibit a structural bullish trend, supported by favorable policies and improving economic indicators. The focus will be on sectors such as technology, industrial metals, and consumer services, with an emphasis on performance disclosures in January [12][13][14].