民生证券近日发布有色金属行业2025Q3总结：从二级市场来看，2025年至今，有色金属 上涨93.45%，其中2025Q3上涨47.02%，位列第5。2025年以来有色金属板块整体涨幅为 93.45%，板块排第2，其中2025Q3有色金属上涨47.02%，板块排名第5；2025年Q1-3，有色 金属上涨84.91%，板块排名第2。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资建议：全球资源新周期，继续看好铜铝+贵金属机会。（1）工业金属：美元降息周 期开启，全球宽松拉动传统需求预期向好，叠加AI数据中心建设拉动边际需求增量，金属 价格中枢有望上行。铜：金融属性宽松预期推高铜价，供给端矿端紧张加剧，冶炼厂减产在 即，需求端传统需求韧性强，AI拉动边际需求增长，价格中枢有望持续上移。铝：国内产 能达到天花板，海外新增产能释放较慢，需求端十五五开局，紧平衡格局强化。重点推荐： 洛阳钼业、紫金矿业、五矿资源、中国有色矿业、金诚信、中国铝业、中孚实业、中国宏 桥、宏创控股、天山铝业、云铝股份、神火股份。（2）能源金属：需求超预期，锂行业供 需格局改善，刚果金配额制落地支撑钴价格上涨。锂：国内新能源汽车需求增速放缓，储能 增速持续超预期。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the non-ferrous metals sector, recommending specific companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [4]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector has seen a significant increase in profitability, with overall profits rising year-on-year in Q3 2025. The sector's performance is driven by a new resource cycle, with copper and aluminum showing strong price increases [2][3]. - The report highlights a divergence in performance among sub-sectors, with precious metals, base metals, and energy metals all experiencing different trends in profitability and price movements [2][3]. Summary by Sections Overall Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector has increased by 93.45% since the beginning of 2025, with a 47.02% rise in Q3 2025, ranking it second among sectors [1][9][15]. Sub-sector Analysis - **Base Metals**: In Q3 2025, copper and aluminum prices rose by 5.90% and 5.64% year-on-year, respectively, with net profits increasing by 56% and 38% [2][44]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices increased by 39.88% year-on-year, with net profits for the precious metals sector rising by 55.89% [2][44]. - **Energy Metals**: Lithium prices saw a decline of 8.0%, while cobalt prices increased by 49.2% year-on-year, indicating a mixed performance in this sub-sector [2][44]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests continued optimism for copper and aluminum, driven by expectations of demand growth from AI data centers and a global easing of monetary policy. Key recommended stocks include Luoyang Molybdenum, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [3][4]. - For energy metals, the report notes an improvement in the lithium supply-demand balance and recommends companies like Ganfeng Lithium and Huayou Cobalt [3][4]. - In the precious metals sector, the report maintains a long-term bullish outlook on gold prices, recommending stocks such as Western Gold and Shandong Gold [3][4]. Financial Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector's net profit for Q3 2025 increased by 50.92% year-on-year, with a notable rise in gross profit margins [31][32]. - The report indicates that the sales gross margin and net margin have been on an upward trend since 2019, with Q3 2025 showing a recovery in profitability [31][32]. Market Trends - The report identifies a strong performance in the non-ferrous metals sector compared to major indices, with the sector outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 [15][16]. - The report also notes that the sub-sectors of rare earths and silver have shown particularly strong performance, with significant price increases [19][21].