12月16日，"鸿蒙生态用户增长臻享会·北京站"圆满落幕。本次活动由鲸鸿动能、应用市场(AppGallery) 及Push用户增长服务联合发起，展示了蓬勃发展的HarmonyOS生态全景，分享了鲸鸿动能作为 HarmonyOS生态的全场景智慧营销平台，如何基于游戏、金融、电商、生活服务、文旅等行业的用户 增长深层诉求，提供一套融合数据、场景与智能的增长解决方案，驱动更多领域商业化实践从"粗放流 量运营"迈向"长期用户价值"的深耕。 针对游戏行业，鲸鸿动能为游戏开发者提供从预约、首发、成熟到召回的用户全生命周期增长方案。通 过一键预约、预约OCPC、ROI出价等智能工具，结合游戏登录、付费、时长等全域数据能力，帮助游 戏实现低成本获客、高转化付费与高效召回。例如，在首发期通过"首发爆量场"锁定核心用户，在成熟 期依托"精准转化场"抓准大R用户，实现用户价值的持续挖掘。 新生态与新机会：鲸鸿动能连接数字商业沃土 随着HarmonyOS生态迎来规模化发展里程碑，操作系统的生态价值，正从技术底座演进为驱动用户增 长与商业创新的核心平台。这正是HarmonyOS所构建的"新生态"——一个以"一个账号、一个系统、一 个生 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - US stock market indices closed lower, with the Nasdaq dropping nearly 2% due to concerns over Oracle's data center project financing issues, which led to a decline of over 5% in its stock price [1][13] - The downturn in the market has prompted a rotation of funds from high-valuation growth stocks to value-oriented sectors, as investors express doubts about the monetization of significant investments in AI [1][13] Group 2: Hainan Free Trade Zone - Hainan has officially launched its free trade zone operations, aiming to create a "zero tariff" environment for imported goods, making them more affordable and accessible for residents [2][14] - The existing management methods for personnel and express deliveries will remain unchanged, and the real estate market is expected to stabilize gradually [2][14] Group 3: Financial Sector Developments - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) has announced a merger with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities, with the combined entity expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan in total assets, enhancing its competitive position in the investment banking sector [3][15] - Vanke has proposed a plan to extend the maturity of 37 billion yuan in medium-term notes to alleviate short-term liquidity pressures, following a previous adjustment for a 20 billion yuan bond [6][16] Group 4: Agricultural Sector Challenges - Charoen Pokphand Seeds, backed by the Thai Chearavanont family, is facing challenges in its A-share listing due to policy restrictions and the loss of its largest customer, resulting in declining revenues and net profits [5][15] Group 5: Debt Restructuring - Sunac China has announced a comprehensive restructuring of approximately 9.6 billion USD in offshore debt, expected to be effective by December 23, 2025, aimed at alleviating debt risks and supporting long-term operations [8][17] Group 6: Commodity Market Insights - Silver prices have surged to a new high of over 66 USD per ounce, driven by supply-demand imbalances, expectations of monetary easing from the Federal Reserve, and significant inflows of global capital [18] - Lithium stocks have rebounded strongly in the market, despite concerns over the cancellation of mining rights in Yichun, with the main lithium carbonate futures contract rising by 7.61% [7][16]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in the U.S. stock market, particularly focusing on the sell-off of AI-related stocks and the shift towards more defensive sectors due to concerns over the sustainability of AI infrastructure investments [1][4]. Market Performance - On Wednesday, the S&P 500 index fell by 1.16% to 6721.43 points, the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 1.81% to 22693.32 points, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.47% to 47885.97 points, marking the fourth consecutive day of decline for both the S&P 500 and Dow [1][2]. Oracle's Financing Issues - Oracle's stock price dropped approximately 5% following reports of financing issues related to a $10 billion data center project in Michigan, primarily due to concerns from Blue Owl Capital regarding Oracle's debt levels and capital expenditure intensity [2][7]. - Despite Oracle's denial of the reports and claims that the project is still progressing, investor concerns about the return on AI infrastructure investments and financing sustainability remain [2][7]. AI Sector Impact - The decline in Oracle's stock has led to a broader sell-off in AI-related stocks, with companies like Broadcom, NVIDIA, AMD, and Alphabet experiencing significant drops in their stock prices [4][10]. - The market is witnessing a shift from large growth stocks to large value stocks, as investors prepare for potential uncertainties in the coming year [4][5]. Financial Concerns - Oracle's total liabilities, including operating lease liabilities, have exceeded $124 billion, raising concerns about its financial flexibility and long-term return prospects [10]. - The company's commitments for data center and cloud computing-related leases have surged to $248 billion, a 148% increase from August levels, further intensifying investor scrutiny [9][10]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the rotation from overvalued assets to more reasonably priced sectors may continue until 2026, potentially increasing market volatility [5]. - The key to determining the value of AI investments will increasingly focus on hard metrics like free cash flow, as opposed to more flexible financial indicators [5].

华见早安之声 请各位听众升级为见闻最新版APP，以便成功收听以下音频。 市场概述 甲骨文重燃AI担忧压垮美股，纳指跌近2%，标普500、道指四连跌。英伟达跌近4%，甲骨文跌超5%，CoreWeave跌超7%。特斯拉跌超4%，告别纪录高 位。被华纳董事会拒绝收购的派拉蒙跌超5%。创今年最大IPO的Medline涨41%。美光绩后一度涨逾6%。 美元结束两连跌，走出逾两个月低位。英国CPI后央行年内降息预期升温，英债反弹，英镑刷新一周低位。 加密货币美股早盘冲高回落，比特币盘中较日高跌超5%、跌破8.6万美元，以太坊一度较日高跌近8%。 黄金盘中涨超1%、逼近逾七周高位；期银盘中涨超6%创新高。地缘风险加剧，原油扭转四连跌、盘中涨超2%，脱离四年低位。 亚洲时段，创业板涨超3%，沐曦涨近700%，算力硬件爆发，金融股走强，宽基ETF放量，碳酸锂期货涨超7%，铂钯期货涨停，沪银涨超5%，港股科技股 普涨。 要闻 美联储理事沃勒：仍有50-100BP降息空间，但无需急于行动。美国财长贝森特：对哈塞特是否具备出任美联储主席资格的任何担忧都是荒谬 的。 特朗普出动"南美史上最大规模舰队"封锁委内瑞拉受制裁油轮；威胁对俄新 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, XunCe (03317), is set to launch an IPO from December 18 to December 23, 2025, aiming to issue 22.5 million shares at a price range of HKD 48-55 per share, with a significant portion allocated for international investors [1] Group 1: Company Overview - XunCe is a provider of real-time data infrastructure and analytical solutions in China, offering seamless deployment of data technology solutions across various industries [1] - The company ranks fourth in the real-time data infrastructure and analysis market in China, holding a market share of 3.4% in a market valued at RMB 18.7 billion in 2024 [1] - The core product is a unified data platform that processes heterogeneous data from multiple sources in milliseconds to seconds, facilitating immediate decision-making and analysis [2] Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - In the asset management sector, which constitutes 11.2% of the real-time data infrastructure and analysis market, the company holds the top position with an 11.6% market share [2] - The company’s solutions are designed to optimize various aspects of the asset management lifecycle, including portfolio monitoring and risk management [2] - The company plans to diversify its client base beyond asset management to include sectors such as financial services, urban management, manufacturing, and telecommunications [3] Group 3: Financial Projections and Use of Proceeds - The company estimates a net proceeds of approximately HKD 1.04 billion from the global offering, assuming a share price of HKD 51.50 [4] - Approximately 80% of the net proceeds will be allocated for ongoing and future R&D of the company’s solutions, while 10% will enhance marketing capabilities, and the remaining 10% will be used for working capital and general business purposes [4]

Core Viewpoint - Oracle's ambitious AI infrastructure expansion faces significant setbacks as its major data center partner, Blue Owl Capital, withdraws from a $10 billion project, raising concerns about funding and execution risks [3][12][20]. Group 1: Project Details - Blue Owl was in discussions to invest in a planned 1 GW data center in Saline Township, Michigan, intended to support OpenAI [3][12]. - The project was expected to provide substantial computing power as part of a $300 billion agreement between Oracle and OpenAI [13][21]. - The withdrawal of Blue Owl leaves the project's funding uncertain, with Blackstone negotiating as a potential financial partner but no agreements signed yet [3][12]. Group 2: Financial Implications - Oracle's net debt, including lease obligations, has risen to approximately $105 billion, up from nearly $78 billion a year ago, with projections suggesting it could reach around $290 billion by 2028 [12][20]. - The tightening of financing terms and rising debt levels have led lenders to impose stricter conditions, making the project less financially attractive for Blue Owl [12][20]. - Oracle's stock has dropped over 40% from its September peak, with a recent decline of 5.4% following the news of Blue Owl's exit [4][8]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The news of Blue Owl's withdrawal has negatively impacted Oracle's stock and the broader tech sector, highlighting potential risks in the AI infrastructure funding chain [4][20]. - Oracle's five-year credit default swap (CDS) reached 155.27 basis points, the highest since January 2009, indicating increased market concerns about its financial stability [11][12]. Group 4: Execution Risks - Concerns about project delays due to execution risks were a factor in Blue Owl's decision to withdraw, as the project has faced challenges since its initiation [13][14]. - Local government issues, including initial re-zoning refusals, have complicated the project's timeline, raising further investor apprehensions [13][14]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The withdrawal of Blue Owl raises questions about the sustainability of the AI investment cycle, particularly if private credit markets begin to withdraw support for such projects [20]. - Oracle is currently in talks with multiple U.S. banks to secure $38 billion in debt financing to address the funding gap created by Blue Owl's exit [21].

在最新一轮抛售中，甲骨文股价当天再跌约5%，回落至177美元附近，年内涨幅几乎被完全抹平，较9 月高点累计跌幅接近50%。 市场人士指出，这一走势不仅是甲骨文自身的警示案例，也为整个AI交易敲响警钟。当市场开始从"讲 故事"转向追问"利润从何而来"，在巨额资本开支持续扩张的背景下，AI概念股所面临的估值压力，或 许才刚刚开始显现。 甲骨文(ORCL.US)今年的股价走势堪称"教科书级反转"，也为市场展示了人工智能叙事如何在短时间内 急转直下。 年初以来，甲骨文一度是AI概念中的明星股之一。公司股价在3月从170美元一路上涨至250美元，9月 在发布财报后更是出现历史级别的暴涨行情。股价一度冲上345美元，不仅刷新纪录，还在短时间内将 创始人拉里.埃里森推上"全球首富"的位置。 美国财经网站investinglive指出，当时的市场叙事几乎完美。埃里森将甲骨文描绘成整个AI革命的"底层 基础设施提供者"，投资者关注的焦点并非传统意义上的营收，而是剩余履约义务(Remaining Performance Obligations，RPO)。公司披露的订单积压规模一度飙升至4550亿美元，随后甚至被上修至 5230亿 ...

2026年的赌局已然摆上台面，这是一场关于经济与市场的博弈，输赢关乎未来。究竟是经济衰退率先拖 垮市场，还是市场崩盘反噬经济，这并非象牙塔内的学术探讨，而是真刀真枪的现实较量。 BCA Research的报告掷地有声，直指问题的核心：250万"超额退休"人口，他们所代表的消费力量与股 市紧密相连。这条纽带一旦断裂，消费需求将骤降，经济也将失去重要的支撑。这批提前退休的人口， 曾经是消费浪潮的推手，他们不再创造价值，却持续消费，无形中推高了市场需求，也导致通胀始终在 3%左右徘徊。 问题随之而来：美联储是否应该迁就这部分退休人群，容忍稍高的通胀以维持市场稳定？亦或是坚守 2%的通胀目标，不惜刺破市场泡沫，将部分人推向失业的困境？这两条道路，一条可能损害市场信 心，另一条则可能重创实体经济。 这场豪赌之所以如此关键，在于当前美国股市的涨势过度集中。美股在全球市值中占据了三分之二的份 额，而其中40%的市值集中在仅仅十只股票上。更令人担忧的是，这十只股票几乎都将命运押注于同一 叙事——通用人工智能。这种单一化的投资逻辑，也使得风险高度集中。 我们看到，英伟达和微软在短短数周内市值蒸发数千亿美元，与此同时，苹果和Al ...

格隆汇12月18日｜美国财经网站investinglive表示，甲骨文(ORCL.US)在9月财报发布后，股价一度飙升 至345美元，使创始埃里森人短暂登顶全球首富宝座。埃里森将甲骨文定位为"整个AI革命的后端基础设 施提供商"，投资者狂热追逐剩余履约义务（ RPO），后者成为看涨情绪的核心。但两大因素彻底击碎 了这一泡沫。一是资本支出重估。公司在Q2财报中上调2026财年资本支出指引至500亿美元，投资者意 识到靠发债数百亿建设数据中心并非"免费午餐"，市场对其债务风险表示担忧。二是数据中心交付延 迟。有报道称甲骨文为OpenAI建设的数据中心交付时间可能推迟至2028年。此前看好甲骨文的理由都 是基于速度，若速度优势不复存在，其高估值便失去支撑。甲骨文股价今日再跌5%，报177美元，较9 月高点暴跌近50%。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

Core Insights - The article provides an overview of the performance of various mutual funds, highlighting the top and bottom performers based on net asset value changes [1][2][3]. Fund Performance Summary Top Performing Funds - The top 10 funds with the highest net value growth as of December 17 include: 1. Guoshou Anbao Strategy Selected Mixed A: 2.0359, +7.67% 2. Guoshou Anbao Strategy Selected Mixed C: 1.4616, +7.66% 3. Rongtong Industry Trend Stock: 1.3413, +7.39% 4. Taixin Development Theme Mixed: 1.8890, +7.33% 5. Huashang Leading Advantage Mixed: 1.5711, +7.02% 6. Dongfang Alpha Rui Xiang Mixed A: 1.1459, +6.95% 7. Dongfang Alpha Rui Xiang Mixed C: 1.1456, +6.95% 8. Guotou Ruijin Advanced Manufacturing Mixed: 2.7811, +6.92% 9. Huatai Bairui Quality Growth A: 1.7812, +6.90% 10. Huatai Bairui Quality Growth C: 1.7498, +6.90% [2][5]. Bottom Performing Funds - The bottom 10 funds with the lowest net value growth as of December 16 include: 1. GF Dow Jones Oil Index RMB A: 2.1869, -3.90% 2. GF Dow Jones Oil Index RMB C: 2.1536, -3.90% 3. GF Dow Jones Oil Index RMB E: 2.1613, -3.90% 4. Huabao Oil and Gas C: 0.6770, -3.70% 5. Huabao Oil and Gas: 0.6946, -3.69% 6. Huabao Overseas China Growth Mixed: 1.3640, -3.06% 7. Nuon Oil and Gas Energy F: 1.0150, -2.59% 8. Huazhong Standard & Poor's Global Oil Index A: 1.7015, -2.53% 9. Huazhong Standard & Poor's Global Oil Index C: 1.6823, -2.53% 10. ICBC Hong Kong Small Cap RMB: 1.8970, -2.32% [3][5]. Market Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index showed a rebound with a trading volume of 1.83 trillion, with a gain-loss ratio of 3626:1635 and a limit-up limit-down ratio of 57:25. Leading sectors included communication equipment, components, and insurance, each rising over 3% [5].