Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, methanol, urea, rubber, PVC, styrene, polyolefins, and polyester. It believes that in the context of low Cushing inventories, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum, but the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside. For other products, it provides specific analyses based on factors such as supply, demand, cost, and inventory, and gives corresponding investment suggestions [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.74, or 1.13%, to $66.16; Brent main crude oil futures rose $0.69, or 1.00%, to $69.36; INE main crude oil futures rose 6.60 yuan, or 1.27%, to 527 yuan [1]. - **Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventories increased by 0.74 million barrels to 12.97 million barrels, a 6.02% increase; diesel inventories decreased by 1.19 million barrels to 7.87 million barrels, a 13.15% decrease; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.31 million barrels to 23.70 million barrels, a 1.34% increase; total refined oil inventories decreased by 0.14 million barrels to 44.54 million barrels, a 0.32% decrease [1]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Given the low Cushing inventories, hurricane expectations, and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside. A target price of $70/barrel for WTI in the September hurricane season is set, and it is recommended to buy on dips and take profits [2]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 24, the 09 contract rose 69 yuan/ton to 2480 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 48 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 15 [4]. - **Analysis**: The market is significantly driven by news, with increased volatility and operational difficulty. The upstream operating rate continues to decline, and profits have slightly decreased but remain at a relatively high level. Overseas plant operating rates have returned to medium - high levels, and market fluctuations have narrowed. The port olefin load has increased this week, while traditional demand is in the off - season, with the operating rates of formaldehyde and acetic acid decreasing and those of chlorides and MTBE increasing. The overall demand is weak. After the methanol price decline, downstream profits have been repaired but remain at a low level, and the methanol spot valuation is still high. In the off - season, the upside is expected to be limited. The domestic market is likely to show a pattern of weak supply and demand in the future, and it is recommended to wait and see after a sharp rise [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 24, the 09 contract rose 12 yuan/ton to 1785 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 15 [6]. - **Analysis**: Affected by the deepening of the domestic anti - involution policy, the domestic industrial products have risen sharply, and urea has also increased significantly. However, most fixed - bed plants have completed technological upgrades, and it is mainly affected by short - term sentiment. The domestic operating rate has slightly decreased, and the overall corporate profit is at a medium - low level, with cost support expected to gradually strengthen. The compound fertilizer operating rate has bottomed out and rebounded, and the subsequent operating rate will continue to increase, which will support the demand for urea. Export containerization continues, and port inventories continue to rise. The domestic urea supply and demand are acceptable, and the price has support at the bottom, but the upside is also restricted by high supply. Currently, the urea valuation is neutral to low, and the supply - demand margin is expected to improve. It is more advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips and not to chase the market when the price rises [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: After continuous rises, NR and RU showed volatile trends, and the bullish sentiment in the commodity market has weakened [8]. - **Analysis**: Bulls believe that the weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may contribute to rubber production cuts, the seasonal trend usually turns upward in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. Bears believe that the macro - economic outlook is uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the production cut may be less than expected [15]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Rubber prices are likely to rise rather than fall in the second half of the year. A long - term bullish view should be maintained, and positions should be built at appropriate times. In the short term, due to the large increase, the risk of a pullback should be guarded against. A neutral approach is recommended, with quick entry and exit. There is an opportunity to increase positions in the spread operation of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [11]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 87 yuan to 5238 yuan, the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 5090 (+20) yuan/ton, the basis was - 148 (-67) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 114 (+4) yuan/ton [13]. - **Analysis**: The cost side remains stable, the overall PVC operating rate has increased, the downstream operating rate has decreased, factory inventories have decreased, and social inventories have increased. Corporate profits have continued to improve, the number of maintenance operations has gradually decreased, and production is at a five - year high. In the short term, multiple sets of plants will be put into operation. The domestic downstream operating rate is at a five - year low and is still in the off - season. The anti - dumping extension in India has marginally improved the pessimistic expectations, and the cost support has weakened. The pessimistic expectations in the fundamentals have improved due to the extension of the anti - dumping in India, but there are still pressures in supply - demand and valuation. In the short term, the price is strong under the stimulation of the anti - dumping extension and anti - involution sentiment, and the risk of sentiment fading should be guarded against [13]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price remained unchanged, the futures price rose, and the basis weakened [15]. - **Analysis**: After the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the China Iron and Steel Association issued statements on the anti - involution policy, the coal sector rose and then stabilized, and the cost side still has support. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level compared to the same period. The bullish view is based on demand expectations and production cut expectations, while the bearish view is based on the falsification of demand. The cost side of pure benzene has increased its operating rate, and the supply is relatively abundant. The supply - side profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation has decreased, but the styrene operating rate has continued to rise. Styrene port inventories have increased significantly. In the seasonal off - season, the overall operating rate of the three S products has fluctuated and increased. In the short term, the BZN spread may be repaired, and the styrene price is expected to follow the cost side [15][17]. Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose [19]. - **Analysis**: The black sector rose and then stabilized, and the cost side still has support. The polyethylene spot price remained unchanged, and the PE valuation has limited downward space. Trader inventories are fluctuating at a high level, and the support for prices has weakened. In the seasonal off - season, the demand - side agricultural film orders are fluctuating at a low level, and the overall operating rate is declining. The short - term contradiction has shifted from the cost - driven downward trend to the high - maintenance - driven inventory reduction. With the commissioning of the Huizhou ExxonMobil ethylene plant in July, the polyethylene price is expected to fluctuate downward. It is recommended to hold short positions [19]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose [20]. - **Analysis**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate is expected to gradually recover, with the marginal return of propylene supply. On the demand side, the downstream operating rate is seasonally declining. In the seasonal off - season, under the background of weak supply and demand, the polypropylene price is expected to be bearish in July [20]. Polyester PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 96 yuan to 6956 yuan, the PX CFR rose 14 dollars to 856 dollars, the basis was 87 (+16) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 108 (+24) yuan [22]. - **Analysis**: The PX maintenance season is over, and the load remains high. The downstream PTA maintenance season is also over, and the load level is high. The processing fee has been repaired, and the inventory level is low. Even though the polyester and terminal sectors are in the off - season, the short - term negative feedback pressure on PX is still small. In the third quarter, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX is expected to continue to reduce inventories. The current valuation is at a neutral level, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following the crude oil price [22][23]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 66 yuan to 4850 yuan, the East China spot price rose 5 yuan to 4815 yuan, the basis was 0 (-2) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 26 (+22) yuan [24]. - **Analysis**: The PTA load remains unchanged. The downstream load has increased. The social inventory has increased. The spot processing fee has decreased, and the futures processing fee has increased. In the future, the supply - side maintenance volume in July is small, and new plants will be put into operation, with expected continuous inventory accumulation. The PTA processing fee repair space is limited. The demand side is under pressure in the off - season. Due to the low inventory level and the repair of the processing fee, the upward negative feedback pressure is expected to be small. The PXN has support under the pattern improvement brought about by PTA commissioning. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following PX [24]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 49 yuan to 4485 yuan, the East China spot price rose 29 yuan to 4530 yuan, the basis was 58 (-4) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 3 (-3) yuan [25]. - **Analysis**: The supply - side load has increased, the downstream load has increased, the import arrival forecast is 15.7 million tons, the East China departure volume on July 23 was 0.8 million tons, and the warehouse - out volume has increased. The port inventory has decreased by 2 million tons. The naphtha - based production profit is - 279 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit is - 556 yuan, and the coal - based production profit is 955 yuan. The cost side of ethylene remains unchanged, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth steam coal fines has increased. The overseas and domestic maintenance plants are gradually starting, and the downstream operating rate is continuously declining due to the off - season. The port inventory reduction is expected to gradually slow down. The valuation is relatively high compared to the same period. The maintenance season is gradually ending, and the fundamentals are changing from strong to weak. However, recently, under the consistent weak expectations, the actual operating rate has exceeded expectations. The unexpected situation of Saudi plants has led to a decrease in import expectations, and multiple domestic plants have had unexpected situations, combined with the low arrival volume, resulting in a reduction in low - level inventories. The short - term valuation has upward support [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current geopolitical risks in the crude oil market remain uncertain. Although OPEC has increased production slightly more than expected, the fundamentals are still in a tight - balance, with the market in a long - short game between strong reality and weak expectations. Investors are advised to control risks and wait and see [2]. - For methanol, the upstream maintenance has increased, and the start - up rate has fallen from a high level. The demand side is weak, and the spot valuation is still high. In the off - season, the upside space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - Regarding urea, the domestic supply and demand are acceptable, the price has support at the bottom, but the upside space is also limited by high supply. It is more advisable to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [4]. - For rubber, NR and RU have risen significantly, but they should guard against the risk of correction. The overall tire start - up rate is relatively high, and it is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view in the second half of the year, with a neutral - to - long or neutral short - term view [7][8][10]. - For PVC, the supply is strong and the demand is weak. The disk's main logic is the transition from destocking to stockpiling. Although it has strengthened recently following the black building materials sector, it will still face pressure in the future [12]. - For benzene - ethylene, there are different views from both long and short sides. The short - term geopolitical impact has subsided, and the price is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [13][14]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to fluctuate due to global trade policy uncertainties and seasonal off - season factors [17]. - For polypropylene, the price is expected to be bearish in July due to the supply - demand weakness in the seasonal off - season [18]. - For PX, after the end of the maintenance season, the load remains high. In the third quarter, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, it is expected to continue destocking. It is recommended to pay attention to long opportunities on dips following crude oil [20][21]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand is under pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to long opportunities on dips following PX [22]. - For ethylene glycol, the Saudi plant's unexpected situation is expected to make it run strongly in the short term, but the fundamentals are weak in the long term [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Situation**: WTI主力原油期货收跌1.92美元，跌幅2.79%，报66.83美元；布伦特主力原油期货收跌1.49美元，跌幅2.11%，报69.14美元；INE主力原油期货收涨13.60元，涨幅2.65%，报527.5元 [5]. - **Data**: China's weekly crude oil data shows that the crude oil arrival inventory increased by 0.75 million barrels to 206.30 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 0.36%. Gasoline commercial inventory increased by 1.86 million barrels to 89.83 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 2.12%. Diesel commercial inventory increased by 1.76 million barrels to 102.59 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 1.75%. Total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 3.63 million barrels to 192.42 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 1.92% [5]. Methanol - **Market Situation**: On July 14, the 09 contract rose by 26 yuan/ton, reporting 2396 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose by 12 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 16 [2]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Upstream maintenance has increased, and the start - up rate has fallen from a high level. The overseas device start - up rate has returned to the middle - high level. The demand side is in the off - season, with the port olefin load reduction and the traditional demand start - up rate falling [2]. Urea - **Market Situation**: On July 14, the 09 contract fell by 9 yuan/ton, reporting 1764 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell by 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 46 [4]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The domestic start - up rate has increased slightly, with a daily output of 19.9 tons. The demand side, such as compound fertilizer start - up rate, has bottomed out and rebounded, and the export collection is still continuing [4]. Rubber - **Market Situation**: NR and RU have risen significantly [7]. - **Industry Data**: As of July 10, 2025, the full - steel tire start - up load of Shandong tire enterprises was 64.54%, 0.81 percentage points higher than last week and 5.59 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The semi - steel tire start - up load of domestic tire enterprises was 72.55%, 2.51 percentage points higher than last week and 6.36 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of June 29, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 129.3 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.7 tons, an increase of 0.6% [8]. PVC - **Market Situation**: The PVC09 contract rose by 30 yuan, reporting 5010 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4850 (- 10) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 160 (- 40) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 113 (- 1) yuan/ton [12]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The overall start - up rate of PVC this week was 77%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%. The demand side was weak, and the domestic start - up rate was still lower than in previous years and was gradually entering the off - season. Exports were expected to weaken [12]. Benzene - Ethylene - **Market Situation**: Spot prices and futures prices have risen, and the basis has weakened [14]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The cost side of pure benzene start - up rate has increased, and the supply is relatively abundant. The supply side of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation profit has decreased, but the benzene - ethylene start - up rate has continued to rise. The port inventory has increased, and the demand side is in the seasonal off - season [14]. Polyethylene - **Market Situation**: Futures prices have fallen [17]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Global trade policy uncertainties have returned. The spot price has fallen, and the PE valuation has limited downward space. The trader inventory is fluctuating at a high level, and the demand side is in the seasonal off - season [17]. Polypropylene - **Market Situation**: Futures prices have fallen [18]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the start - up rate is expected to gradually recover. The demand side is in the seasonal off - season, with the downstream start - up rate seasonally fluctuating downward [18]. PX - **Market Situation**: The PX09 contract rose by 84 yuan, reporting 6778 yuan. The PX CFR rose by 15 dollars, reporting 852 dollars, and the basis was 243 (+ 42) yuan, with the 9 - 1 spread of 94 (+ 20) yuan [20]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: China's PX load was 81.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3%. Asian load was 73.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%. The PTA load was 79.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5% [20]. PTA - **Market Situation**: The PTA09 contract rose by 40 yuan, reporting 4740 yuan. The East China spot price rose by 25 yuan, reporting 4735 yuan, with a basis of 8 (+ 8) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 40 (+ 2) yuan [22]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The PTA load was 79.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%. The downstream load was 88.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4% [22]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Situation**: The EG09 contract rose by 52 yuan, reporting 4357 yuan. The East China spot price rose by 14 yuan, reporting 4398 yuan, with a basis of 67 (+ 2), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 12 (+ 14) yuan [23]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The ethylene glycol load was 68.1%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%. The downstream load was 88.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4%. The port inventory decreased by 2.7 tons to 55.3 tons [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical risks in the crude oil market are still uncertain. Although OPEC has increased production slightly more than expected, the current fundamentals remain in a tight - balance. Crude oil is in a long - short game between strong reality and weak expectations. It is recommended that investors control risks and adopt a wait - and - see approach [2] - Methanol is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. With the improvement of domestic commodity sentiment, the upward and downward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [3] - The supply and demand of domestic urea are acceptable, and the price has support at the bottom, but the upside is also restricted by high supply. The current valuation is neutral to low, and it is more advisable to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [5] - For rubber, it is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the second half of the year. Adopt a long - term bullish mindset, build positions opportunistically, and use a neutral - to - bullish short - term strategy [8][12] - PVC is expected to have strong supply and weak demand. The main logic of the market is inventory reduction and weakening. It will be under pressure in the future [14] - The price of styrene is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [17] - The price of polyethylene is expected to remain volatile [19] - The price of polypropylene is expected to be bearish in July [20] - For PX, after the end of the maintenance season, the load remains high. It is expected to continue to reduce inventory in the third quarter. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [23] - For PTA, the supply is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, and the demand side is slightly under pressure. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [24] - For ethylene glycol, the fundamentals are weak, and pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rallies [25] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures fell $1.42, or 2.08%, to $66.87; Brent main crude oil futures fell $1.30, or 1.85%, to $68.88; INE main crude oil futures rose 2.80 yuan, or 0.54%, to 522.5 yuan [1] - **Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventory decreased by 0.37 million barrels to 12.00 million barrels, a 2.97% decrease; diesel inventory decreased by 0.15 million barrels to 9.74 million barrels, a 1.51% decrease; fuel oil inventory increased by 1.33 million barrels to 24.71 million barrels, a 5.68% increase; total refined oil inventory increased by 0.81 million barrels to 46.46 million barrels, a 1.78% increase [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 10, the 09 contract rose 26 yuan/ton to 2398 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 8 [3] - **Supply**: Domestic operating rate continued to decline by 3.89%, coal - to - methanol profit increased slightly, and overseas plant operating rate returned to medium - high levels [3] - **Demand**: Port MTO load decreased slightly, traditional demand operating rates varied, and it is currently the off - season. Downstream profit levels are generally low, and methanol valuation is still high [3] - **Inventory**: Both port and enterprise inventories increased during the off - season [3] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 10, the 09 contract rose 7 yuan/ton to 1777 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 53 [5] - **Supply**: Domestic operating rate increased slightly, with a daily output of 19.6 tons, and the overall corporate profit is at a medium - low level [5] - **Demand**: The operating rate of compound fertilizers has bottomed out and rebounded, and exports are still ongoing. Future demand is concentrated in compound fertilizers and exports [5] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Due to the bullish expectations in the real estate market, most industrial products rose, and NR and RU rose significantly [8] - **Long - Short Views**: Bulls believe that factors in Southeast Asia may lead to rubber production cuts, and rubber usually rises in the second half of the year. Bears think that the macro - economic outlook has deteriorated, demand is in the off - season, and the production cut may be less than expected [8] - **Industry Situation**: As of July 10, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 64.54%, up 0.81 percentage points from last week and 5.59 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 72.55%, up 2.51 percentage points from last week and down 6.36 percentage points from the same period last year. Tire enterprises' shipment rhythm has slowed down, and inventory is under pressure [9] - **Inventory**: As of June 29, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 129.3 tons, a 0.6% increase; the total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 78.9 tons, a 1.2% increase; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 50.5 tons, a 0.3% decrease. As of July 7, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 50.52 (- 0.14) tons [10] - **Spot Prices**: Thai standard mixed rubber was 14150 (+ 300) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1735 (+ 30) dollars, STR20 mixed was 1740 (+ 30) dollars, Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 9100 (+ 50) yuan, and North China butadiene was 11200 (0) yuan [11] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 77 yuan to 5040 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4860 (+ 70) yuan/ton, the basis was - 180 (- 7) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 103 (- 8) yuan/ton [14] - **Cost**: The price of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2250 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 620 (- 10) yuan/ton, ethylene was 820 (0) dollars/ton, and the cost remained flat. The spot price of caustic soda was 820 (+ 10) yuan/ton [14] - **Supply**: The overall PVC operating rate was 77.4%, a 0.7% decrease; among them, the calcium carbide method was 80.8%, a 0.2% decrease; the ethylene method was 68.5%, a 1.9% decrease [14] - **Demand**: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.9%, a 0.1% increase [14] - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 38.6 tons (- 0.9), and social inventory was 59.2 tons (+ 1.7) [14] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot prices remained unchanged, while futures prices rose, and the basis weakened [17] - **Cost**: The operating rate of pure benzene increased, and the supply was relatively abundant [17] - **Supply**: The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation increased, and the operating rate of styrene continued to rise. Port inventory increased [17] - **Demand**: In the off - season, the overall operating rate of the three S products decreased [17] Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose. The spot price remained unchanged, and the PE valuation has limited downward space [19] - **Supply**: The upstream operating rate was 77.82%, a 0.34% increase. Production enterprise inventory increased by 5.47 tons to 49.31 tons, and trader inventory decreased by 0.09 tons to 6.05 tons [19] - **Demand**: In the off - season, the demand for agricultural films was weak, and the overall operating rate fluctuated downward [19] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose [20] - **Supply**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate is expected to gradually recover, increasing the supply of propylene [20] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate decreased seasonally. In the off - season, both supply and demand are weak, and the price is expected to be bearish in July [20] PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 58 yuan to 6782 yuan, and PX CFR rose 2 dollars to 852 dollars. The basis was 240 yuan (- 45), and the 9 - 1 spread was 64 yuan (- 10) [22] - **Supply**: The operating rate in China was 81%, a 2.8% decrease; the Asian operating rate was 74.1%, a 1.1% increase. Some domestic plants reduced production, while some overseas plants restarted or increased loads [22] - **Demand**: The PTA operating rate was 79.7%, a 1.5% increase [22] - **Inventory**: In late May, the inventory was 434.6 tons, a 16.5 - ton decrease from the previous month [23] - **Valuation**: PXN was 261 dollars (+ 9), and the naphtha crack spread was 84 dollars (+ 11) [23] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 24 yuan to 4742 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 15 yuan to 4735 yuan. The basis was 7 yuan (- 29), and the 9 - 1 spread was 12 yuan (- 16) [24] - **Supply**: The PTA operating rate was 79.7%, a 1.5% increase. Some plants increased production, and a plant in Taiwan, China restarted [24] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate was 88.9%, a 1.3% decrease. Some plants restarted or underwent maintenance [24] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 213.5 tons, a 1.9 - ton increase [24] - **Valuation**: The spot processing fee of PTA decreased by 24 yuan to 128 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 14 yuan to 293 yuan [24] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 42 yuan to 4325 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 27 yuan to 4374 yuan. The basis was 70 (- 1), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 33 yuan (- 4) [25] - **Supply**: The EG operating rate was 68.1%, a 1.5% increase; among them, the syngas - based method was 73.1%, a 3.8% increase; the ethylene - based method was 64.2%, a 0.6% decrease. Some domestic and overseas plants restarted [25] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate was 88.9%, a 1.3% decrease. Some plants restarted or underwent maintenance [25] - **Inventory**: The import forecast was 9.6 tons, and the East China port outbound volume on July 9 was 1.24 tons. Port inventory increased by 3.5 tons to 58 tons [25] - **Valuation**: The profit of naphtha - based production was - 644 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 704 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 951 yuan [25]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Report Core Views Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: High - level oscillation. The core driver has shifted from supply - demand to geopolitics, and the Israel - Iran conflict will dominate oil prices [3][4]. - **LPG**: Bullish in the short - term. The strengthening of upstream crude oil drives up the cost, and the fundamentals are improving marginally [6][8]. - **L**: Bearish rebound. Cost support has improved, but there are risks of continued inventory accumulation in the middle - stream [10][11]. - **PP**: Bearish rebound. Spot high - price transactions are weak, and there is pressure on inventory accumulation in the middle - stream [13][14]. - **PVC**: Bearish rebound. The cost of ethylene - based plants has increased, and the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand [15]. - **PX**: Cautiously long at low levels. Supply and demand are both increasing, and the fundamentals are improving in May [16][17]. - **PTA**: Bullish in the short - term but with a weakening fundamental outlook. Supply pressure is expected to increase, and downstream demand is weakening [19][20]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: Cautiously long at low levels. Supply pressure has eased, and inventory is continuously decreasing [22][23]. Building Materials - **Glass**: Weak and oscillating. Enterprises are reducing prices to clear inventory, and the fundamentals are weak [25][27]. - **Soda Ash**: Weakly seeking the bottom. Supply is increasing, and inventory is accumulating [28][30]. - **Caustic Soda**: Suppressed by the moving average. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weakening [31][33]. - **Methanol**: Bullish in the short - term. Affected by geopolitical conflicts, but there are concerns about negative feedback from MTO demand [34] 3. Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Review**: International oil prices rose significantly on June 13. WTI rose 4.78%, Brent rose 7.02%, and SC rose 4.74% [3]. - **Basic Logic**: The core driver is geopolitics. The Israel - Iran conflict is uncertain, and in extreme cases, Iran may block the Strait of Hormuz. Supply is stable, and demand is expected to increase slightly. Inventory data shows a decline in US commercial crude oil inventory [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, supply is expected to be in excess, and the price range is estimated to be between $55 - 65. In the short - term, prices are expected to oscillate at a high level. SC is recommended to focus on the range of [530 - 570] [5]. LPG - **Market Review**: On June 13, the PG main contract closed at 4275 yuan/ton, up 3.06%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China all increased [7]. - **Basic Logic**: The strengthening of upstream crude oil drives up the cost. Supply has decreased slightly, demand from downstream chemical industries has increased, and inventory has decreased [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the valuation is high. In the short - term, affected by geopolitics, buy put options. PG is recommended to focus on the range of [4300 - 4400] [9]. L - **Market Review**: Cost support has improved, and both futures and spot prices have risen. The North China basis is - 18 (down 17 from the previous period) [11]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure will decrease next week, but the market is still consuming low - price spot inventory. It is in the traditional off - season, and there is a risk of continued inventory accumulation in the middle - stream [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts are unclear, so reduce short positions. Upstream enterprises can sell for hedging when the basis is negative. L is recommended to focus on the range of [7000 - 7200] [11]. PP - **Market Review**: Cost support has improved, and the rebound continues. Spot high - price transactions are weak, and the East China basis is 62 (down 81 from the previous period) [14]. - **Basic Logic**: Demand is weak, and it is in the consumption off - season. Supply is expected to increase in June - July, and there is pressure on inventory accumulation in the middle - stream [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions. Downstream enterprises can buy for hedging when the basis is high. PP is recommended to focus on the range of [7000 - 7150] [14]. PVC - **Market Review**: The cost of ethylene - based plants has increased, and the Changzhou basis is - 109 (down 3 from the previous period) [15]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic PVC supply has decreased slightly due to maintenance. Demand has weakened in some domestic industries due to the off - season and rainy season. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: There is insufficient driving force for continuous upward movement. Rebound and go short. V is recommended to focus on the range of [4750 - 4900] [15]. PX - **Market Review**: On June 13, the spot price in East China was 6900 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the PX09 contract closed at 6780 yuan/ton (+244). The basis has converged [16]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and overseas PX device loads have increased, supply pressure has increased, and demand is expected to improve. Inventory has decreased but is still at a relatively high level. The PXN spread has compressed, and the basis has converged [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the opportunity to go long at low levels. PX is recommended to focus on the range of [6730 - 6880] [18]. PTA - **Market Review**: On June 13, the spot price in East China was 5015 yuan/ton (+160), and the TA09 contract closed at 4782 yuan/ton (+162). The basis and monthly spread have strengthened [19]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is expected to increase as maintenance devices restart and new capacities are put into production. Downstream demand is weakening, but inventory is decreasing. Processing fees are high [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the opportunity to go short at high levels. TA is recommended to focus on the range of [4750 - 4880] [21]. MEG - **Market Review**: On June 13, the spot price in East China was 4426 yuan/ton (+79), and the EG09 contract closed at 4334 yuan/ton (+100). The basis and monthly spread are strong [22]. - **Basic Logic**: Device maintenance has increased, and the arrival volume is low, so supply pressure has eased. Downstream demand is weakening, but inventory is decreasing [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Continue to focus on the opportunity to go long at low levels. EG is recommended to focus on the range of [4270 - 4350] [24]. Glass - **Market Review**: Spot market prices have been reduced, the futures price has fallen under pressure, the basis has widened, and the number of warehouse receipts has remained unchanged [26]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical risks have led to a decrease in market risk appetite. Domestic private credit expansion is blocked, and the demand for glass is shrinking. Enterprises are reducing prices to clear inventory, and the fundamentals are weak [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG is recommended to focus on the range of [960 - 990], and it is expected to oscillate weakly under the pressure of the 1000 - yuan mark [27]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The spot price of heavy soda ash has been reduced, the futures price has broken through and fallen, the main - contract basis has widened, the number of warehouse receipts has decreased, and the number of valid forecasts has remained unchanged [29]. - **Basic Logic**: The market supply has increased as maintenance devices restart and new capacities are put into production. Demand is weak, inventory is at a high level, and the cost center has moved down [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA is recommended to focus on the range of [1140 - 1180], suppressed by the 5 - day and 10 - day moving averages [30]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The spot price of caustic soda has remained stable, the futures price has been weak, the basis has strengthened, and the number of warehouse receipts has remained unchanged [32]. - **Basic Logic**: The price of liquid chlorine has risen, and some enterprises may postpone maintenance. Supply is expected to increase, and demand from the alumina industry is weakening [33]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: No specific strategy recommendation is provided in the given text. Methanol - **Market Review**: On June 13, the spot price in East China was 2439 yuan/ton (+108), and the main 09 - contract closed at 2389 yuan/ton (+99). The basis and monthly spread have changed [34]. - **Basic Logic**: Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the price has risen, but there are concerns about negative feedback from MTO demand. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand improvement is limited [34]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: No specific strategy recommendation is provided in the given text.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, OPEC's production increase has been fulfilled as scheduled. It is recommended that investors gradually take profits on dips, and it is not advisable to chase short positions excessively in the short term. In the current situation of low static inventory, going long on the positive spread on dips is still a good position [1]. - The domestic methanol supply is expected to continue to rise, imports will gradually increase, and traditional demand will gradually weaken. The supply - demand pattern will gradually weaken, and prices still face downward pressure. It is recommended to focus on short - selling on rallies for single - sided trading, and pay attention to reverse spreads for the 9 - 1 spread [3]. - For urea, it is expected that there will be some support at the bottom, and prices will tend to be strong. Traders with long positions at low levels can continue to hold, while those not in the market should wait for the market sentiment to cool down before considering long positions. The inter - month spread should focus on positive spreads on dips [5]. - Rubber prices have returned to range - bound trading. It is recommended to adopt a neutral approach and conduct short - term operations. Pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [8][11]. - For styrene, pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rebounds [13]. - PVC is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to the weak supply - demand situation [15]. - Polyethylene prices are expected to remain volatile in the short and medium term, while polypropylene prices are expected to fluctuate with a downward bias in May [17][18]. - PX and PTA are in the maintenance season, with short - term valuation support, but the upside of absolute prices is limited by weak crude oil. For ethylene glycol, the focus is on whether the inventory reduction expectation can be realized [20][21][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose by $2.33, or 4.02%, to $60.28; Brent main crude oil futures rose by $2.17, or 3.56%, to $63.12; INE main crude oil futures fell by 7.20 yuan, or 1.54% [6]. - **Inventory Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventories increased by 0.22 million barrels to 13.43 million barrels, a 1.63% increase; diesel inventories increased by 0.18 million barrels to 8.91 million barrels, a 2.05% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 1.93 million barrels to 20.54 million barrels, an 8.59% decrease; total refined oil inventories decreased by 1.54 million barrels to 42.88 million barrels, a 3.46% decrease [1]. 3.2 Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On May 8, the 09 contract fell by 23 yuan/ton to 2216 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell by 42 yuan/ton, with a basis of +164 [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic enterprise start - up rates are gradually rising, and production is at a historically high level. Supply will continue to increase, imports will rise, and traditional demand will weaken [3]. - **Profit**: Enterprise profits have declined due to weak spot prices but remain at a high level overall. Future profits are expected to shift downstream, and production profits are expected to be further compressed [3]. - **Strategy**: Focus on short - selling on rallies for single - sided trading, pay attention to reverse spreads for the 9 - 1 spread, and look for long - position opportunities for the 09 contract PP - 3MA spread on dips [3]. 3.3 Urea - **Market Quotes**: On May 8, the 09 contract fell by 4 yuan/ton to 1882 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged, with a basis of +18 [5]. - **Policy and Market**: The fertilizer export symposium pointed out that May - September is the fertilizer export window, and urea exports to India are prohibited. The total fertilizer export volume should not exceed the 2023 level. It is likely that partial exports will be gradually liberalized, but the intensity will be limited [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is gradually increasing, and the domestic market is in the peak season for summer top - dressing demand. Exports are highly uncertain [5]. - **Strategy**: Traders with long positions at low levels can continue to hold, while those not in the market should wait for the market sentiment to cool down before considering long positions. The inter - month spread should focus on positive spreads on dips [5]. 3.4 Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Rubber prices have returned to range - bound trading, showing relative strength among industrial products [8]. - **Supply - Side Policy**: Thailand intends to postpone rubber tapping for one month to counter US tariff threats. If strictly implemented, rubber production is expected to decrease by 20 - 30 tons, but the market anticipates that the actual reduction may be less than 20 tons [9]. - **Demand and Inventory**: Tire factory start - up rates are declining. As of May 8, 2025, the full - steel tire start - up rate in Shandong was 44.75%, down 9.59 percentage points from last week and 4.44 percentage points from the same period last year; the semi - steel tire start - up rate was 57.98%, down 11.14 percentage points from last week and 18.11 percentage points from the same period last year. As of May 4, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 135.5 tons, a 0.12% increase [10]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral approach and conduct short - term operations. Pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [11]. 3.5 Styrene - **Market Quotes**: On May 8, the 06 contract closed at 6936 (-105) yuan/ton, and the Jiangsu spot price was 7140 (-100) yuan/ton, with a basis of +204 (+8) yuan/ton [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply - side maintenance has ended and production is restarting, while demand remains weak. The operating rates of the three major downstream industries are declining, and the production plans of white - goods manufacturers are weakening [13]. - **Inventory**: The absolute inventory at ports is at a low level, and inventory reduction this week may limit the decline in styrene prices [13]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rebounds [13]. 3.6 PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell by 37 yuan to 4839 yuan, and the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4660 (-40) yuan/ton, with a basis of -179 (-3) yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: The overall start - up rate of PVC is 79.3%, a 0.7% week - on - week increase. The downstream start - up rate is 43.9%, a 4.2% decrease. Factory inventory is 41.1 tons (-0.9), and social inventory is 64 tons (-4.8) [15]. - **Cost and Profit**: Cost remains stable, and the profit pressure of integrated enterprises is high. There are still many maintenance plans for calcium - carbide - based production facilities [15]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, although inventory is being reduced rapidly, the supply - demand situation is weak. Further inventory reduction depends on maintenance intensity and exports. PVC is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [15]. 3.7 Polyolefins 3.7.1 Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices are falling. The main contract closed at 7016 yuan/ton, a 30 - yuan decrease, and the spot price was 7335 yuan/ton, a 45 - yuan decrease, with a basis of 319 yuan/ton, a 15 - yuan weakening [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the second quarter, new production capacity on the supply side is large, and the supply side may face pressure. The seasonal off - season is approaching, and demand for agricultural films is decreasing [17]. - **Inventory**: Production enterprise inventory is 57.54 tons, a 16.14 - ton increase, and trader inventory is 6.06 tons, a 0.75 - ton increase [17]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the downward trend is dominated by supply - side production capacity start - up. In the medium and long term, only a 50 - ton ExxonMobil No. 3 device is expected to start production in May, and prices are expected to remain volatile [17]. 3.7.2 Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices are falling. The main contract closed at 6985 yuan/ton, a 44 - yuan decrease, and the spot price remained unchanged at 7280 yuan/ton, with a basis of 295 yuan/ton, a 44 - yuan strengthening [18]. - **Supply and Demand**: In May, there is no new production capacity on the supply side, and maintenance is at a high level. The downstream start - up rate is expected to decline seasonally [18]. - **Inventory**: Production enterprise inventory is 67.64 tons, an 11.16 - ton increase; trader inventory is 14.27 tons, a 1.32 - ton increase; and port inventory is 7.79 tons, a 0.17 - ton increase [18]. - **Outlook**: Polypropylene prices are expected to fluctuate with a downward bias in May [18]. 3.8 PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol 3.8.1 PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose by 116 yuan to 6404 yuan, and PX CFR rose by 10 dollars to 778 dollars, with a basis of 59 yuan (-27) and a 9 - 1 spread of 70 yuan (+34) [19][20]. - **Supply - Side Situation**: PX is still in the maintenance season. Chinese PX operating rate is 73%, and Asian operating rate is 67.9%. There are device restarts and maintenance [20]. - **Inventory and Import**: In April, South Korea's PX exports to China were 39 tons, a 9 - ton increase. Inventory at the end of March was 468 tons, unchanged month - on - month [20]. - **Valuation and Cost**: PXN is 206 dollars (+13), and naphtha crack spread is 115 dollars (+15) [20]. - **Outlook**: In the second quarter, domestic inventory is expected to continue to decline. The terminal textile and clothing orders are weak, and the industry faces medium - term negative feedback pressure. However, short - term terminal restocking has alleviated polyester inventory pressure, and the risk of negative feedback is postponed. The short - term valuation has support, but the upside of absolute prices is limited by weak crude oil [20]. 3.8.2 PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose by 80 yuan to 4546 yuan, and the East China spot price rose by 50 yuan to 4615 yuan, with a basis of 120 yuan (+12) and a 9 - 1 spread of 64 yuan (+62) [21]. - **Supply - Side Situation**: PTA is in the maintenance season, with an operating rate of 70.3%, a 7.4% decrease. There are device restarts and maintenance [21]. - **Demand - Side Situation**: The downstream operating rate is 94%, a 0.6% increase. The terminal draw - texturing and weaving machine operating rates are rising [21]. - **Inventory**: On May 6, social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 254.2 tons, a 14.7 - ton decrease [21]. - **Valuation and Cost**: Spot processing fee decreased by 8 yuan to 375 yuan, and on - paper processing fee increased by 4 yuan to 345 yuan [21]. - **Outlook**: The industry faces medium - term negative feedback pressure, but short - term terminal restocking has alleviated polyester inventory pressure, and the risk of negative feedback is postponed. PTA short - term valuation has support, but the upside of absolute prices is limited by weak crude oil [21]. 3.8.3 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose by 23 yuan to 4222 yuan, and the East China spot price rose by 7 yuan to 4262 yuan, with a basis of 70 yuan (+14) and a 9 - 1 spread of -7 yuan (+15) [22]. - **Supply - Side Situation**: The ethylene glycol operating rate is 69%, a 0.6% increase. There are device restarts, maintenance, and production - rate adjustments [22]. - **Demand - Side Situation**: The downstream operating rate is 94%, a 0.6% increase. The terminal draw - texturing and weaving machine operating rates are rising [22]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory is 79 tons, a 1 - ton decrease [22]. - **Valuation and Cost**: Naphtha - based production profit is -529 yuan, domestic ethylene - based production profit is -673 yuan, and coal - based production profit is 966 yuan. Cost remains stable [22]. - **Outlook**: The industry is in the inventory - reduction stage, but the actual inventory - reduction extent is limited due to high hidden inventory. The industry faces medium - term negative feedback risk, and the focus is on whether the inventory - reduction expectation can be realized [22].