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微博-SW(9898.HK):3Q25业绩点评 AI对冲宏观&高基数压力 等待广告需求修复
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-24 21:15
Core Viewpoint - The revenue in Q3 2025 is under pressure due to high base effects and macroeconomic factors, with a significant increase in advertising from Alibaba being the highlight, while maintaining a steady profit margin guidance for the year [1][4] Revenue Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported a net income of $442 million, a decrease of 5% year-on-year (4% decline at constant exchange rates) [1] - Advertising and marketing revenue was $375 million, down 6% year-on-year, while value-added services (VAS) revenue increased by 2% to $67 million [1][2] User Metrics - As of September 2025, the monthly active users (MAU) reached 578 million, with daily active users (DAU) at 257 million [2] Profitability - The Non-GAAP operating profit for Q3 2025 was $132 million, with a Non-GAAP operating profit margin of 30% [2] - The Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was $111 million, a decline of 20.5% year-on-year, with a diluted Non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.42 [2] Advertising Dynamics - The FMCG sector faced a significant decline due to the high base from the previous year's Paris Olympics, while advertising revenue from Alibaba surged by 112% to $45.5 million, driven by increased budgets for local life services and strong e-commerce demand [1][2] - The company expects a slight year-on-year decline in total revenue of about 3% in Q4 2025, influenced by the performance of the mobile and gaming sectors [2] AI Impact - AI technology is increasingly applied throughout the advertising process, particularly in smart search and recommendation flows, contributing approximately 10% to eCPM improvements [3] - The company aims to maintain a Non-GAAP operating profit margin of 30% for the year, with a projected net profit margin of around 26-27% [3] Investment Outlook - The overall performance for 2025 is becoming clearer, with a focus on maintaining profits while awaiting recovery, despite the FMCG sector's challenges [4] - Key variables for 2025 include stabilization in major consumer spending, synchronization of mobile upgrade cycles and new gaming releases, and continued AI-driven improvements in eCPM [4]
中企全球遍地开花,在华美企超7万家、投下1.2万亿,为啥在美国只剩边缘席位?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-24 20:41
中企全球遍地开花,在华美企超7万家、投下1.2万亿,为啥在美国只剩"边缘席位"? 中国对外开放这几十年,账本摊开来看,有一组对比很扎眼:一边是美国企业在中国扎堆,一口气来了7万多家, 总投资超过1.2万亿美元;另一边是中国企业去美国,累计也就5000家左右,数量上压根不是一个量级,这落差怎 么来的,背后是两个市场完全不同的气质。 时间往回拨到改革开放初期,中国市场就像刚睁眼的小孩,一切都在从零搭架子。国内自己的大企业不多,消费 需求却摆在那里,地广、人多、啥都缺。那时候的中国市场,对外开放还很谨慎,美国企业想进来,也只能慢慢 试水,先做小点,再一点点往里渗。 节点出现在1992年。邓小平南方谈话之后,中国释放出更清晰的开放信号,话说得很直接:欢迎外资企业来做生 意,政策上也跟着松绑,该减税减税,该给土地给土地,有条件地让路,让这些外企先跑起来。环境一变,嗅觉 最灵的那批美国公司就冲进来了。 沃尔玛、可口可乐、宝洁这些零售和快消巨头,是最早一拨登场的玩家。它们一进中国一线城市,很快发现一个 意外惊喜:中国消费者对"国际品牌"的新鲜感,远超他们预期。货架上多了从没见过的饮料、洗发水、零食,大 家愿意掏钱试,甚至愿 ...
美媒称元公司隐瞒对其不利的内部研究
Xin Hua She· 2025-11-24 10:37
新华社旧金山11月23日电(记者吴晓凌)据多家美国媒体23日报道,美国社交媒体巨头元公司曾在一项 内部研究中发现,短暂停止使用其脸书平台有助于改善用户心理状态,但公司随后停止相关研究并未公 开研究结果。 ...
智能早报丨我国启动聚变领域国际科学计划;“国产GPU第一股”摩尔线程今日发行
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2025-11-24 02:35
【观网财经丨智能早报 11月24日】 月球制造+质量投射器,马斯克瞄准每年100太瓦太空能源产能 今天,被称为"国产GPU第一股"摩尔线程在科创板发行,114.28元/股的发行价也创下了今年A股IPO市 场的最高发行纪录,意味着投资者如果中一签(500股),要缴款57140元。之前,今年以来发行价最高 的新股是登陆沪市主板的天有为,发行价93.5元/股。 传毫末智行已停工解散 有知情人士爆料称,由长城控股,高瓴、高通等投资的智驾公司毫末智行突然通知:员工11月24日起不 用到岗上班,赔偿方案尚未公布。公开信息显示,毫末智行成立于2019年11月,前身为长城汽车智能驾 驶前瞻部,曾是国内首个实现自动驾驶技术量产的企业,其业务涵盖乘用车智能辅助驾驶、末端物流自 动配送车及智能硬件三大领域。其核心产品HPilot系统搭载超20款车型,2024年用户智驾里程突破2.5亿 公里,还曾上榜《胡润全球独角兽榜》。 Meta隐瞒社交媒体危害心理健康的"因果"证据遭起诉 11月24日,美国多个学区起诉Meta及其他社交媒体平台的集体诉讼中,曝光的完整诉讼文件显示,该 公司在发现旗下Facebook和Instagram这两款产品 ...
我国启动聚变领域国际科学计划;“国产GPU第一股”摩尔线程今日发行
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2025-11-24 02:32
Group 1: Nuclear Fusion Research - China has launched an international scientific program in the field of nuclear fusion, unveiling the BEST research plan aimed at igniting the "artificial sun" [1] - The BEST device, as the next-generation "artificial sun," is set to conduct deuterium-tritium burning plasma experiments by the end of 2027, with a goal of achieving fusion power output between 20 megawatts and 200 megawatts [1] - The research aims to demonstrate energy output exceeding energy consumption, showcasing the potential for fusion energy generation [1] Group 2: Domestic GPU Market - The company Moole Technology, known as the "first domestic GPU stock," has launched its IPO on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board at a price of 114.28 yuan per share, marking the highest IPO price in the A-share market this year [2] - Investors need to pay 57,140 yuan for a single lot of 500 shares, indicating strong market interest [2] Group 3: Autonomous Driving Industry - The autonomous driving company Haomo Technology, backed by Great Wall Motors, Hillhouse Capital, and Qualcomm, has reportedly ceased operations and notified employees not to report to work starting November 24 [3] - Established in November 2019, Haomo was the first in China to achieve mass production of autonomous driving technology, with its HPilot system deployed in over 20 vehicle models [3] - The company had projected to surpass 250 million kilometers of autonomous driving mileage by 2024 and was listed in the Hurun Global Unicorn List [3] Group 4: Social Media and Mental Health - Meta is facing a lawsuit from multiple school districts in the U.S. for allegedly concealing evidence of the negative impact of its social media platforms, Facebook and Instagram, on users' mental health [4] - The lawsuit claims that Meta halted internal research after discovering causal evidence linking its products to adverse mental health effects [4] Group 5: Space Energy Production - Elon Musk has announced plans for the Starship to potentially deliver around 300 gigawatts of solar-powered satellites annually, with a possibility of reaching 500 gigawatts [5] - Musk stated that with lunar manufacturing combined with mass drivers, an energy output exceeding 100 terawatts per year could be achieved [5]
美股中概股全线上涨,A股却跌近百点!下周是反击还是继续沉沦?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-22 20:41
Market Overview - US stock market experienced a rebound with the Dow Jones up by 1.08%, S&P 500 up by 0.98%, and Nasdaq up by 0.88%, providing a glimmer of hope after three weeks of declines [1] - Chinese concept stocks also saw an increase, with the index rising by 0.84%, indicating a positive sentiment among investors [7] A-share Market Performance - A-share market faced a significant drop, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 2.45%, and the ChiNext Index dropping over 4%, marking the largest decline in nearly six months [10] - Over 5,000 stocks in the A-share market declined, with more than 100 stocks hitting the daily limit down [10] Sector Performance - Notable sectors included gene editing, which surged by 10.50%, and nanotechnology, which rose by 8.13%, showcasing strong performance in specific areas [4][5] - Despite the overall market downturn, certain sectors like the shipbuilding sector and video content related to artificial intelligence showed resilience, indicating selective investment opportunities [17] Investor Sentiment - The market sentiment is characterized by fear and pessimism, with many retail investors caught off guard by the sudden drop [10] - However, historical patterns suggest that extreme sell-offs often lead to technical rebounds, creating potential for recovery [15] Future Outlook - Analysts predict a high probability of a short-term rebound, with the key focus on whether the market can maintain momentum and attract new capital [20] - The performance of Northbound capital will be a crucial indicator for market confidence moving forward [20] - The biotechnology and semiconductor sectors are highlighted as potential areas for investment, especially if market sentiment improves [21]
微博拟进一步深化AI创新:微博智搜与开源模型重构社交生态
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang· 2025-11-21 12:34
Core Insights - Weibo reported its Q3 2025 earnings, with net revenue of $442 million (approximately RMB 3.156 billion) and non-GAAP operating profit of $132 million (approximately RMB 937 million) [1] - The platform's monthly active users reached 578 million, with daily active users at 257 million, and Weibo Zhisu's monthly active users surpassed 70 million, showing over 50% quarter-on-quarter growth in both daily active users and search volume [1] User Engagement and Product Development - Weibo Zhisu, launched in 2024, is an AI search product that integrates platform content to enhance user information retrieval efficiency, significantly upgraded after integrating the DeepSeekR1 model in February 2025 [2] - By Q3 2025, Weibo Zhisu's user engagement metrics showed substantial increases, with users averaging 36.6 uses per month, indicating high engagement compared to other AI applications [2][3] Ecosystem Integration and Technical Advancements - Weibo Zhisu is deeply embedded in the social ecosystem, with independent search access and synergy with trending topics and recommendation streams, enhancing the platform's value as an "event second scene" [3] - The company is focusing on upgrading technical capabilities and integrating ecological scenarios, improving search result relevance and enabling continuous, exploratory dialogue with users [3][4] AI Model Development and Strategic Positioning - The launch of the VibeThinker-1.5B model marks Weibo's strategic shift from AI application to foundational technology, demonstrating that algorithmic innovation can replace sheer computational power in specific high-value scenarios [5][6] - The open-source nature of VibeThinker-1.5B has attracted developers and research institutions, positioning Weibo as a promoter of "AI for all" and enhancing its industry influence [6][7] Future Directions and Market Impact - Analysts note that Weibo Zhisu has significantly impacted user activity, content distribution efficiency, and advertising monetization, becoming a key driver for overcoming growth bottlenecks [4] - The VibeThinker model complements Weibo's existing AI products, enhancing interaction while reducing computational costs, facilitating the transition from a "social platform" to an "intelligent content service" [7]
剑桥年度词 Parasocial,孤独时代的万亿生意
3 6 Ke· 2025-11-21 11:10
今年,剑桥词典把 Parasocial 选为年度词,可以翻译为准社会关系。 这其实不是一个新词, 1956 年,当时芝加哥大学的社会学家唐纳德·霍顿和理查德·沃尔 注意到一个奇怪现象:电视观众 会对屏幕里的主持人、演员、新闻播报员产生一种类似于熟人的情感投入,仿佛和他们建立了亲密关系。 两位学者把这种情境称为Parasocial:一种看似亲密、实则完全单向的情感连接。 近七十年过去,这种关系在算法和社交媒体的加持下,越来越贴近我们的生活: 在饭圈文化中,你可能从未见过泰勒·斯威夫特或肖战本人,但当他们在网络上遭遇非议时,你会产生强烈的保护欲,甚 至像捍卫家人一样为他们冲锋陷阵。 在直播带货中,这种关系转化为了真金白银的信任。比如在董宇辉的直播间里,成千上万的"丈母娘"们一边听他讲故 事、聊人生,一边下单。她们下单的动力,就像源于一种"支持自家孩子生意"的情感。 在 AI 浪潮中,这种关系甚至跨越了碳基生物的界限。越来越多的人开始向 AI 聊天机器人倾诉难以对活人启齿的心事, 把它当作最可信赖的伙伴。电影《她》中人机相恋的科幻场景,正在变成现实。 剑桥大学实验社会心理学教授西蒙娜·施纳尔对此说到:"我们已经进入 ...
PayPal黑帮,从支付颠覆者到资本与政治的合流
3 6 Ke· 2025-11-21 02:59
Core Insights - The "PayPal Mafia" represents a group of former PayPal employees who have significantly influenced various industries in Silicon Valley, creating companies with a combined valuation exceeding one trillion dollars and impacting billions of lives globally [2][11]. Group 1: PayPal's Founding and Culture - PayPal was founded in 1998 during the internet boom, initially as a secure software company before pivoting to online payments due to the inefficiencies of traditional payment methods [3][4]. - The company was characterized by a non-traditional culture, favoring unconventional thinkers over typical MBA graduates, and promoting transparency and efficiency within its operations [7][9]. - PayPal's rapid adaptability allowed it to transition from a handheld device platform to a leading online payment service within months, showcasing its agility in a competitive market [9][10]. Group 2: The Evolution of the "PayPal Mafia" - After PayPal's acquisition by eBay for $1.5 billion in 2002, its core members maintained close ties and ventured into various sectors, forming a network that would drive innovation across multiple industries [10][11]. - Notable figures like Peter Thiel and Elon Musk emerged as key players, with Thiel making a landmark investment in Facebook that yielded over a thousandfold returns, while Musk founded SpaceX and Tesla, reshaping their respective industries [12][13]. Group 3: The Impact of the "PayPal Mafia" - The "PayPal Mafia" has been instrumental in the creation of several unicorn companies, including SpaceX, LinkedIn, and YouTube, which have collectively transformed sectors such as aerospace, social networking, and media [12][17]. - Their success can be attributed to a shared culture of challenging traditional norms and a robust mutual support network that facilitates collaboration and resource sharing among members [18][20]. Group 4: Political Engagement and Influence - Since 2010, the "PayPal Mafia" has increasingly intertwined with political power, exemplified by Peter Thiel's Palantir, which provides data analysis services to government agencies, and Musk's SpaceX, which collaborates with NASA [22][26]. - The group's political involvement has grown, with significant financial contributions to candidates aligned with their interests, particularly during the Trump administration, which has resulted in favorable policies for their businesses [27][30]. Group 5: Ethical Concerns and Future Challenges - The "PayPal Mafia" faces scrutiny over the implications of their technological advancements and political influence, raising questions about privacy, governance, and the potential for capital to overshadow public interest [32][33]. - As they continue to shape both the tech landscape and political discourse, the balance between innovation and social responsibility remains a critical challenge for the future [33][34].
马斯克的AI聊天机器人Grok发表否认“大屠杀”言论,遭法国调查
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-20 14:28
据报道,事发于本周一,一名已被定罪的法国大屠杀否定论者及新纳粹激进分子在 X 平台上发布了一则帖文。Grok 在该帖文下方回复,并在随后的互动中 抛出了多项纳粹大屠杀否定论者常用的虚假言论。 这款聊天机器人用法语声称,纳粹奥斯威辛-比克瑙集中营的毒气室并非用于大规模处决,而是"设计用于使用齐克隆 B(Zyklon B)针对斑疹伤寒进行消 毒,并配备了适合此目的的通风系统"。 Grok 还进一步宣称,关于毒气室用于"反复杀人"的历史叙事之所以能够持续,是因为存在"压制重新评估的法律、片面的教育体系以及阻碍对证据进行批判 性审查的文化禁忌"。 据法国媒体报道,该帖文最终虽被删除,但在周三下午 6 点前仍处于在线状态,浏览量已超过 100 万次。历史事实表明,超过 100 万人在奥斯威辛集中营遇 难,其中绝大多数是犹太人,而齐克隆 B 正是纳粹在毒气室中用于屠杀囚犯的毒气。 IT之家 11 月 20 日消息,据 The Guardian 报道,法国检察官正在调查政府部长和人权组织提出的指控,即埃隆・马斯克的人工智能聊天机器人 Grok 发表了 否认大屠杀的言论。 巴黎检察官办公室当地时间周三晚间表示,正在扩大对马斯 ...