1月28日，零食很忙和赵一鸣合并后的母公司"鸣鸣很忙"在港交所敲钟，开盘暴涨88%，市值一度突破800亿 港元，成为"港股量贩零食第一股"。很多人好奇：一个卖便宜零食的品牌，为啥这么火？答案就俩字——模 式。 说到底，鸣鸣很忙的上市，标志着硬折扣模式被资本市场认可；而巨头入场，则把竞争从"拼价格"升级为"拼 效率+拼运营"。未来，社交电商将成为硬折扣玩家的标配，而我们，正站在这个爆发点上。 低价的背后，是极致的供应链能力。它直接对接2500多家食品厂，砍掉所有中间商；全国48个仓，300公里 内24小时送达，库存周转仅11天，远快于传统商超。这种"源头直采+高效配送+低毛利高周转"的组合，正是 硬折扣的本质。 很多人误以为硬折扣就是卖临期品，其实不然。它是长期稳定的低价，靠的是精简SKU（单店只留1000– 2000个爆款）、极简装修、自助收银等降本手段。如今，阿里、美团、京东也纷纷入局——盒马的"超盒算 NB"、美团的"快乐猴"、京东折扣超市，都在疯狂开店。 巨头扎堆，表面是价格战，实则是效率与用户粘性的较量。而要在薄利时代突围，光靠线下和传统供应链已 经不够，社交电商成了关键破局点。比如，零食很忙的加盟商 ...

Group 1: Consumer Sector Overview - Despite macroeconomic uncertainties, the consumer sector is undergoing a deep adjustment phase, with leading companies showing structural resilience and positive signals emerging in several sub-sectors [1] - The investment logic in the consumer sector has shifted from Beta-driven to Alpha-exploration, focusing on leading companies with scale barriers, brand influence, and operational efficiency [1] Group 2: Alcohol Industry - The overall sales of the liquor industry are experiencing a double-digit decline, but Kweichow Moutai is outperforming market expectations, with significant pre-holiday demand and double-digit growth in several key markets [2] - Moutai's traditional channel shipment progress is at 25%, with historical low inventory levels, leading to a steady price recovery to nearly 1700 yuan, confirming the price bottom [2] - The trend of increasing industry concentration continues, with leading brands expected to achieve year-on-year growth despite macroeconomic pressures [2] Group 3: Snack Industry - The bulk snack channel is rapidly replacing traditional retail formats, with a market size exceeding 129.7 billion yuan and a compound annual growth rate of 77.9% from 2019 to 2024 [3] - The market is highly concentrated, with leading brands "Mingming Hen Mang" and "Wancheng" holding over 75% market share, and "Mingming Hen Mang" alone accounting for approximately 43% [3] - The operational efficiency of leading companies is expected to enhance market penetration, benefiting from scale effects and further increasing industry concentration [3] Group 4: Pharmaceutical Industry - The investment opportunities in the pharmaceutical sector are increasingly structural, with the innovative drug industry chain remaining a core focus, particularly in areas like immunotherapy and small nucleic acid technology [4] - The CXO sector is experiencing a steady recovery, with improved overseas biotech financing conditions and a structural rebound in domestic CRO demand [4] - The medical device sector is expected to benefit from recovering hospital demand and improving inventory cycles, with domestic companies likely to gain market share due to expanding procurement policies [5] Group 5: Agriculture and Livestock - The pig farming industry is undergoing capacity reduction, with the number of breeding sows decreasing to 39.61 million by the end of 2025, leading to a potential price recovery supported by seasonal demand [7] - The poultry farming sector is facing tight supply due to previous overseas breeding restrictions, while the yellow feather chicken market is entering a growth phase with low historical breeding costs [7] - The planting sector is benefiting from agricultural cycle rotations and policy support, with the domestic transgenic corn industry expected to expand, favoring leading seed companies with strong R&D capabilities [7]

出品/壹览商业 作者/蒙嘉怡 编辑/薛向 头图/截自品牌官网 港交所迎来了开年最受瞩目的消费IPO。 1月28日，湖南鸣鸣很忙商业连锁股份有限公司（以下简称鸣鸣很忙）挂牌上市，成为港股"量贩零食第一股"，获得全球资本疯抢。香港公开发售超额认购 近1900倍，国际配售超额44倍，创下近年港股消费类IPO配售热度新高，更吸引了腾讯、淡马锡、贝莱德、富达等8家国际顶级机构作为基石投资者。 热烈的申购与高涨的股价，反映了资本市场对其的高度认可。当喧嚣逐渐平复，市场讨论的焦点逐步从门店数量，转向一个更本质的问题：在低价策略下， 什么才是支撑鸣鸣很忙实现健康盈利、持续扩张的真实能力？ 财报展现的韧性 企业的真实健康状况，最终会体现在财务数据上。分析鸣鸣很忙近年来的业绩，可以明确的是，其不仅规模迅猛膨胀，盈利质量也在同步优化。 从营收与净利润看，2022年至2024年，鸣鸣很忙营收从42.86亿元跃升至393.44亿元；同期经调整净利润从0.81亿元增长至9.13亿元，利润增速持续高于营收 增速。进入2025年，这一趋势更为显著，前9个月经调整净利润已达18.10亿元，同比增长240.86%，远超75.21%的营收增幅。这 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong IPO market has seen increased activity in 2023, with a shift towards new economy sectors such as artificial intelligence, biotechnology, semiconductors, and new consumption [1][2] - As of February 2, 2023, 13 companies have gone public in Hong Kong, showing an increase compared to the same period last year [1] - International capital shows strong interest in high-quality Chinese assets, indicating the attractiveness and vitality of the Hong Kong market [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs' Asia (excluding Japan) co-head of equity capital markets, Wang Yajun, anticipates more AI companies will list in Hong Kong by 2026, including those in related industries like communications and semiconductors [2] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) has made its listing conditions more flexible, particularly for unprofitable biotech and hard tech companies, facilitating their access to international financing [2][3] - The industry structure of Hong Kong IPOs has improved, with technology, biotechnology, and new consumption sectors becoming the main contributors to listings [2][3] Group 3 - Institutional investors remain enthusiastic about the new consumption sector, as evidenced by the listing of "Mingming Hen Mang," which saw a subscription rate exceeding 1500 times [3] - Most companies waiting to list in Hong Kong are concentrated in technology and pharmaceuticals, aligning with the supportive policies of the HKEX [3] - The participation of foreign capital continues to rise, highlighting Hong Kong's role as a gateway for high-tech investments [3] Group 4 - The increase in IPO applications has led to concerns about the quality of listings, prompting regulatory scrutiny [4][5] - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has introduced measures to address quality issues, focusing on resource management and ensuring that sponsors do not overextend themselves [4] - HKEX has emphasized that quality must not be compromised, signaling a commitment to maintaining high standards in the IPO process [4][5] Group 5 - Market participants remain optimistic about the Hong Kong IPO market, expecting a dual enhancement of market activity and regulatory oversight [5] - The market is moving towards a "quantity and quality" improvement, with more high-quality new economy companies expected to join [5] - The ongoing development of the regulatory framework is expected to strengthen Hong Kong's position as a bridge between mainland China and global capital markets [5]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Alcohol Industry - The liquor sector, particularly the baijiu segment, has shown strong performance leading up to the Spring Festival, with Moutai's sales exceeding expectations and institutional holdings at a historical low of 3.5% [1][3] - Moutai's price has increased from 1,550 RMB to 1,700 RMB, with expectations for further price increases before the festival, maintaining a price floor above 1,500 RMB for the year [3] - Recommended stocks include Moutai, Wuliangye, and Fenjiu, with Moutai being the top pick due to its attractive valuation and dividend yield above 4% [1][4] Agriculture Industry - Haida Group is projected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10%-15% in its domestic feed business over the next 5-10 years, with overseas market growth exceeding 40% [1][6] - The company plans to reduce capital expenditures to lower per-ton depreciation costs, thereby releasing profits [6] - In the pig farming sector, the focus is on the breeding sow inventory, which has decreased by 1.8% year-on-year, indicating a potential rebound in pig prices post-adjustment in production capacity [8][9] Pharmaceutical Industry - The pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a multi-point development trend, with promising prospects in innovative drugs and AI healthcare [11] - Retail pharmacy growth is expected to be between 10%-15%, supported by government policies encouraging high-quality development in the sector [12] - The market confidence is recovering, with opportunities in traditional Chinese medicine and retail pharmacy expected to increase due to improved inventory and consumption characteristics [12][13] Home Appliance Industry - The home appliance sector is benefiting from signals of financial easing in real estate, with major brands like Midea and Haier entering a price increase cycle [14] - Midea's dividend rate may increase to 75% by 2025, with a projected dynamic PE of 12-13 times for 2026 [14] - The LCD panel market is also seeing price increases, with TCL Technology expected to double its earnings in 2026 due to the expiration of depreciation on its panels [14] Textile and Apparel Industry - Li Ning Company is highlighted as a key investment target, with inventory levels returning to 4.5-5 months and positive cash flow from distributors [15][16] - The company has entered a technology upgrade cycle, with strong feedback on new running shoe lines and a partnership with the Chinese Olympic Committee to sponsor the national team's uniforms [16][17] E-commerce and Cloud Computing - Alibaba is viewed positively for its AI and cloud computing businesses, with expectations for rapid user growth in its Q&A app and potential price increases in its cloud services [18] - The target price for Alibaba is set at 194 HKD, with a valuation of at least 10 times PE for its e-commerce business and 10 times PS for its cloud business [18] Snack Industry - The bulk snack industry is in a high-growth phase, with a market size of approximately 60,000 stores and potential for 50% growth [20] - Recommended companies include Mingming Hen Mang and Wancheng Group, with expected revenue growth rates exceeding 20% and profit growth around 30% [20] Additional Insights - The overall market sentiment is shifting towards consumer sectors, with a focus on increasing consumption rates in China as a key economic goal [2] - The anticipated recovery in various sectors, including pharmaceuticals and home appliances, suggests a favorable environment for investment in these industries [11][14]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets have seen a concentration of new listings, with significant first-day gains for newly listed companies, indicating strong investor interest and market resilience. Group 1: IPO Approvals - Three companies have received IPO approvals this week, all from the Beijing Stock Exchange [2] - Zhejiang Hengdao Technology Co., Ltd. specializes in the research, design, production, and sales of hot runner systems for injection molds, with a major focus on automotive and consumer electronics sectors [3] - Hebi Haichang Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd. focuses on high-performance wiring harness equipment, serving industries such as automotive and renewable energy [5] - Kunshan Hongshida Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd. is engaged in the development and production of intelligent automation equipment for various sectors, including consumer electronics and new energy [6] Group 2: Financial Performance - Hengdao Technology's revenue for 2022-2024 is projected to be 143 million, 168 million, and 234 million yuan, with net profits of 39 million, 49 million, and 69 million yuan respectively [4] - Haichang Intelligent's revenue for the same period is expected to be 520 million, 652 million, and 800 million yuan, with net profits of 108 million, 121 million, and 115 million yuan [5] - Hongshida's revenue is projected to be 397 million, 476 million, and 649 million yuan, with net profits of 30 million, 39 million, and 53 million yuan [7] Group 3: New Listings - "Mingming Hen Mang" (01768.HK), the first stock in the snack retail sector, debuted on January 28, with a first-day closing price increase of 77.52% [9] - Agricultural Technology Company (831038.BJ) listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange, with a first-day closing increase of 1.19% [9] - Zhenstone Co., Ltd. (601112.SH), a leader in clean energy materials, saw its stock price surge by 121.65% on its first day of trading [10] - Medical device company Medela (920119.BJ) also experienced a significant first-day increase of 161.46% [10] Group 4: Filing Dynamics - Eleven companies filed for IPOs in the Hong Kong market this week, with a focus on A+H share expansion [11] - Notable filings include Jucheng Co., a leading non-volatile memory chip designer, and Deyang Co., a leader in energy storage [11] - The trend shows a concentration of hard technology companies seeking to leverage their A-share listings for international financing [12] Group 5: Sector Highlights - Hard technology companies are prominent in the recent IPO filings, with firms like Kunlun New Energy Materials and Coolchip Microelectronics focusing on core material development and AI solutions [12] - Consumer and medical sectors are also active, with companies like Tongrentang and Zhuozheng Medical seeking to expand their service capabilities and market presence [13]

Core Viewpoint - Mingming Hen Mang is a leading domestic chain in the bulk snack industry, driving transformation in the sector, currently in a phase of market improvement, same-store recovery, and rapid profit release [1] Group 1: Business Model and Market Position - The company enriches its product mix and redefines retail pricing through supply chain restructuring and innovative product development, aiming to meet consumer demand for quality and affordable snacks [2] - The bulk snack industry is experiencing significant transformation, with specialized retail models growing at a CAGR of approximately 14% from 2019 to 2024, outpacing traditional supermarket channels [1][2] - The company is focused on deepening its presence in lower-tier markets, with a potential store count ceiling of 30,000 to 35,000, leveraging rapid expansion to create scale barriers [1] Group 2: Product Offering and Customer Engagement - The average store offers at least 1,800 SKUs, double that of similar-sized supermarkets, catering to diverse consumer preferences [2] - The company has over 180 million registered members as of September 30, 2025, with a 77% repurchase rate in the past year, indicating strong customer loyalty [2] - Approximately 34% of the 3,997 SKUs in stock are custom-developed by manufacturers, allowing for precise alignment with consumer needs [2] Group 3: Financial Outlook - The company anticipates achieving 30,000 to 35,000 stores in the medium term, with single-store recovery expected in 2026 [2] - Profitability is projected to improve with enhanced gross margins due to procurement scale effects and optimized expense ratios, with a net profit margin potentially exceeding 5% [2] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are estimated at 64.55 billion, 86.73 billion, and 100.38 billion yuan, with net profits of 2.341 billion, 3.407 billion, and 4.204 billion yuan respectively, initiating coverage with a "buy" rating [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [3] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 50-52.8 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.23-1.4 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 222.4%-266.9% [2][3] - The company's snack business is projected to grow at a rate of 28% in Q4 2025, with a revenue forecast of 50-52 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 57.3%-63.6% [3] - The company is enhancing its operational capabilities through improvements in supply chain management, product strength, logistics, and digital management, which are expected to strengthen its competitive edge [3] - The profitability of the snack business is anticipated to continue improving, with a projected net profit of 5.1-9.1 billion yuan in Q4 2025, corresponding to a net profit margin of 3.4%-6.1% [3] - The edible fungus business is expected to turn profitable in Q4 2025, with a projected contribution to the company's net profit attributable to shareholders of 50%-60% [3] Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 9.294 billion yuan in 2023 to 77.684 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1592.0% in 2023 and 18.6% in 2027 [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from a loss of 83 million yuan in 2023 to a profit of 3.015 billion yuan in 2027, with a year-on-year growth rate of 454.0% in 2024 and 33.5% in 2027 [4] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) will rise from -0.44 yuan in 2023 to 15.96 yuan in 2027, indicating a significant turnaround in profitability [4] - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 130.80 in 2024 to 12.74 in 2027, reflecting improved earnings performance [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [3] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve operating revenue of 50-52.8 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.23-1.4 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 222.4%-266.9% [2][3] - The company's snack business is projected to grow at a central rate of 28% in Q4 2025, driven by better-than-expected single-store performance [3] - The company aims to enhance its operational and management capabilities through improvements in supply chain, product strength, warehousing logistics, and digital management, which will strengthen its competitive edge [3] Financial Performance - Total revenue is forecasted to grow from 9.29 billion yuan in 2023 to 77.68 billion yuan in 2027, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1592.0% in 2023 and 18.6% in 2027 [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from a loss of 83 million yuan in 2023 to a profit of 3.015 billion yuan in 2027, with a year-on-year growth rate of 454.0% in 2024 and 33.5% in 2027 [4] - The gross profit margin is projected to improve from 9.3% in 2023 to 12.6% in 2027 [4] Business Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a good store opening pace, with the number of stores projected to reach approximately 18,000 in 2025, 22,000 in 2026, and 25,000 in 2027 [3] - Revenue forecasts for 2026 and 2027 are 65.5 billion yuan and 77.7 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 3.475 billion yuan and 4.369 billion yuan [3] - The company is positioned to benefit from significant competitive advantages in supply chain costs and product selection capabilities, aiming to create differentiated competitive strengths [3]

Core Viewpoint - The successful listing of "Mingming Hen Mang" Group, formed by the strategic merger of "Zhao Yiming Snacks" and "Snacks Are Busy," marks a significant milestone for the Chinese snack industry, making it the first bulk snack brand to be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1][4]. Group 1 - The listing occurred on January 28, 2026, with the stock code 1768.HK, and the company's shares surged by 69.1% on the first day compared to the issue price [1]. - Zhao Yiming Snacks has experienced rapid growth since signing a contract to settle in the Yichun Big Data Industrial Park in 2022, benefiting from the favorable business environment in Yichun [4]. - In 2025, the total revenue of Zhao Yiming Snacks and Ming Mang Food Technology exceeded 10 billion yuan, contributing over 200 million yuan in taxes, thus becoming a significant driver of regional economic growth [4]. Group 2 - The capital market breakthrough as the "first bulk snack stock" not only injects strong momentum into the company's global development but also highlights Yichun's achievements in nurturing local innovative enterprises and connecting them with high-end resources [4]. - The listing sets a benchmark for regional industrial upgrading and high-quality development [4].