点击上图▲立即收听 " 会议将内需抬升至更突出的位置；财政从之前的 ' 加杠杆 ' 更强调 ' 提效率、防风险 ' ；房地产则从 ' 止跌托底 ' 进一步转向 ' 去库存 ' 等。 " 文 /巴九灵（微信公众号：吴晓波频道） 与去年的会议相比，今年在多个关键表述上出现了明显变化。 国补政策是否延续？央行明年降不降息？民生保障如何调整？在这场会议之后，2026年的经济大方向，终于定了。 12月11日，中央经济工作会议在北京落下帷幕。这次会议既是对2025年经济工作的系统总结，更是对2026年经济运行与宏观政策的全面定调，其 重要性不言而喻。 例如，会议将内需抬升至更突出的位置；财政从之前的"加杠杆"更强调"提效率、防风险"；房地产则从"止跌托底"进一步转向"去库存"等。会议精 神总体延续了12月8日政治局会议"直面困难挑战、聚焦国内提质增效"的主线。 从数据来看，2025年中国前三季度GDP增速同比增长5.2%，预计四季度GDP增速4.6%，全年大概率能够完成5%的增长目标。"十四五"即将圆满 收官。 | | | | 维度 | 2024年中央经济 | 2025年中央经济 | 变化 | | --- | --- | ...

央广网北京12月12日消息（记者张棉棉 李思默 王泽华）据中央广播电视总台中国之声报道，中央 经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。会议指出，今年是很不平凡的一年，经济社会发展主要目标 将顺利完成。我国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展，现代化产业体系建设持续推进，改革开放迈出新步 伐，重点领域风险化解取得积极进展，民生保障更加有力。 会议认为，通过实践，我们对做好新形势下经济工作又有了新的认识和体会：必须充分挖掘经济潜 能，必须坚持政策支持和改革创新并举，必须做到既"放得活"又"管得好"，必须坚持投资于物和投资于 人紧密结合，必须以苦练内功来应对外部挑战。 会议强调，做好明年经济工作，要坚持稳中求进工作总基调，更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗 争，更好统筹发展和安全，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性，持续扩大内 需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量，因地制宜发展新质生产力。 明年将纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，持续防范化解重点领域风险，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市 场、稳预期，推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，保持社会和谐稳定，实现"十五五"良好开 局。2026年中国经济怎么干？ 会议认为， ...

12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京召开。会议对2026年经济工作作出全面部署，关于"坚持守 牢底线，积极稳妥化解重点领域风险"，房地产领域被重点提及。 专题：中央经济工作会议在北京举行 业内解读 智通财经记者 | 王婷婷 2026年要着力稳定房地产市场。 具体而言，会议强调"着力稳定房地产市场"，并系统提出提振消费、城乡居民增收、高质量推进城市更 新、积极稳妥化解风险、深化住房公积金制度改革、构建房地产发展新模式等重要工作任务。 这是继2024年中央经济工作会议提出"持续用力推动房地产市场止跌回稳"后，中央经济工作会议再次强 调"稳楼市"。 58安居客研究院院长张波告诉智通财经，"本次中央经济工作会议，对于房地产给予充分关注，既立足 当前市场供需矛盾与风险隐患，又着眼于行业长期转型，推动房地产行业高质量发展。" 在其看来，通过这一系列的有效措施，坚定信心、应对挑战，为"十五五"开局之年的房地产市场筑牢稳 预期、提质效的发展坚实基础。 着力稳定房地产市场 本次会议将"积极稳妥化解重点领域风险"列为八大任务之一。 "目前来看，房地产行业的风险得到有效控制。"同策研究院联席院长宋红卫向智通财经表示，未来要 ...

Economic Structure - The main contributors to China's GDP in 2024 are consumption (56.55%), investment (40.61%), and net exports (2.84%) [10] - The contribution rates to GDP growth are 44.47% from consumption, 25.22% from investment, and 30.31% from net exports [11] Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector's GDP share peaked above 8% between 2018 and 2020, but has since declined to 6.27% in 2024 [25][29] - The real estate industry's nominal GDP growth has been consistently lower than the overall economic growth since 2019, indicating a significant shift [27] Future Growth Drivers - Future economic growth is expected to be supported by technology-driven sectors such as information technology and leasing services, as well as industries benefiting from productivity improvements like wholesale retail and manufacturing [2] - Key areas for future growth include the modernization of the industrial system, driven by government policies and technological advancements [1] Policy Implications - Long-term national policies, such as the five-year plan, are crucial for ensuring sustainable economic development and balancing sectoral growth [2] - The macroeconomic policy environment is expected to maintain a positive fiscal stance and moderately loose monetary policy, with potential innovations in monetary tools [2] Risks - Potential risks include a resurgence of global inflation, rapid economic downturns in developed economies, and increasing international geopolitical complexities [2]

Core Insights - The real estate industry is undergoing a profound self-reform, focusing on quality and resilience, particularly in the Greater Bay Area, which is seen as a vibrant economic hub [2] - A number of benchmark real estate companies are innovating across various dimensions, including product quality, technology integration, and comprehensive service systems, aiming to create safe, comfortable, green, and smart living experiences [2] Award Winners - **Poly Developments Guangdong Company**: Recognized for enhancing product and service quality, embodying the "Three Good Concepts" and "Good House Strategy," and establishing a resilient development ecosystem [4] - **Yuexiu Property**: Celebrated for its commitment to "achieving a better life" and its competitive advantage through a unique business model that integrates development, operation, and finance [7] - **New World China**: Acknowledged for its long-term commitment to the Greater Bay Area and its active participation in high-quality development and social responsibility [9][10] - **Greentown China (South China Region)**: Awarded for transitioning from "building houses" to "creating lifestyles," focusing on comprehensive service and living upgrades in the Bay Area [12][13] - **Zhujiang Real Estate**: Recognized for its innovative approach and contribution to urban development, particularly with its flagship projects in Guangzhou [14] High-Quality Delivery Companies - **Guangzhou Metro Real Estate**: Noted for applying high standards of quality management from metro construction to real estate development, establishing a reliable delivery benchmark in the Bay Area [17] - **Sun Hung Kai Properties**: Celebrated for its extensive experience in Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) and its role in creating iconic urban landmarks in the Greater Bay Area [19] - **Longfor Group**: Acknowledged for its extensive project development and commitment to quality, having delivered over 1 million housing units [22]

Group 1 - The necessity and feasibility of short-term interest rate cuts may increase due to the current internal and external environment, with weak real estate sales dragging down credit and inflation recovery [1][9] - Real estate policies have not led to significant improvements in housing transactions, with continued low consumer purchasing willingness and pressure from existing housing stock, indicating a need for interest rate cuts to stimulate sales [2][9] - Local government debt issuance rates have risen, leading to increased fiscal pressure, and the effectiveness of debt reduction measures may need to be strengthened, suggesting a potential need for short-term interest rate cuts [3][9] Group 2 - The recent appreciation of the RMB is attributed to a decline in the US dollar index and improved cross-border capital flows, providing a temporary window for interest rate cuts by the central bank [4][10] - Commercial banks are adjusting their liability structures to alleviate pressure on net interest margins, which have been under strain due to weak social demand and high competition for deposits [5][11] - The continuation of a loose monetary policy environment may improve the demand for long-term bonds, with expectations of a potential recovery in bond market performance by early 2026 [6][12]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference continues the overall tone from the December 8 Politburo meeting, emphasizing "strengthening confidence, utilizing advantages, and responding to challenges," while introducing the "five musts" and "five key focus points" for economic work in 2026, which should help various parties better understand and implement central policies [2][23]. Group 1 - The conference emphasizes the need to actively respond to internal and external pressures while showcasing the central government's determination to stabilize the economy and expectations [5][6]. - The introduction of the "five musts" directly addresses pain points and bottlenecks, such as the necessity to balance flexibility and regulation, and the "five key focus points" highlight the importance of expanding domestic demand, strengthening industries, promoting reforms, stabilizing livelihoods, and preventing risks [3][24]. - The overall goal is to achieve a good start for the "14th Five-Year Plan," with a focus on managing expectations and boosting confidence, while placing the goal of "promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery" under monetary policy objectives [4][29]. Group 2 - The conference maintains a tone of "seeking progress while ensuring stability and improving quality and efficiency," with a new emphasis on "pragmatic goal orientation" and a focus on solving existing difficulties [4][30]. - The eight key tasks from the December 8 Politburo meeting are reiterated, with domestic demand returning to the top priority, and the order of tasks adjusted to prioritize expanding domestic demand, strengthening industries, and promoting reforms [5][31]. - Specific deployments include new proposals such as the flexible and efficient use of various monetary policy tools, a shift in fiscal spending language from "increasing" to "maintaining necessary strength," and a renewed focus on stabilizing the real estate market with city-specific measures [4][25].

中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席习近平出席 会议并发表重要讲话。中共中央政治局常委李强、赵乐际、王沪宁、蔡奇、丁薛祥、李希出席会议。 习近平在重要讲话中总结2025年经济工作，分析当前经济形势，部署2026年经济工作。李强作总结讲 话，对贯彻落实习近平总书记重要讲话精神、做好明年经济工作提出要求。 会议指出，今年是很不平凡的一年。以习近平同志为核心的党中央团结带领全党全国各族人民迎难而 上、奋力拼搏，坚定不移贯彻新发展理念、推动高质量发展，统筹国内国际两个大局，实施更加积极有 为的宏观政策，经济社会发展主要目标将顺利完成。我国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展，现代化产业体 系建设持续推进，改革开放迈出新步伐，重点领域风险化解取得积极进展，民生保障更加有力。过去5 年，我们有效应对各种冲击挑战，推动党和国家事业取得新的重大成就，"十四五"即将圆满收官，第二 个百年奋斗目标新征程实现良好开局。 会议认为，通过实践，我们对做好新形势下经济工作又有了新的认识和体会：必须充分挖掘经济潜能， 必须坚持政策支持和改革创新并举，必须做到既"放得活"又"管得好"，必须坚持投资于物 ...

Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need for proactive macroeconomic policies to enhance economic growth and stability in 2026, focusing on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply [1][2][3] Economic Growth and Challenges - China's economy is projected to achieve a growth target of around 5% for 2025, despite facing challenges such as weak domestic demand and external pressures [2][3] - From January to November, exports increased by 6.2% year-on-year, while industrial output grew by 6.1% and service sector output by 5.7%, indicating resilience in the economy [2] - However, retail sales only grew by 4.3%, and fixed asset investment declined by 1.7%, highlighting a "strong supply, weak demand" scenario [2] Policy Measures - The conference outlined eight key tasks for 2026, including prioritizing domestic demand and fostering innovation-driven growth [1] - Fiscal policy will see an increase in the deficit rate from 3% in 2024 to 4% in 2025, with a focus on maintaining necessary fiscal spending and optimizing tax incentives [7][8] - Monetary policy will remain moderately loose, with expectations for further interest rate cuts to support economic stability and growth [9] Investment and Consumption - The government plans to enhance investment in key areas, including infrastructure and technology, with a focus on revitalizing private investment [10][12] - The "Two New" policies, aimed at upgrading equipment and promoting consumption, will continue to be implemented, with significant funds allocated to support these initiatives [10][12] Real Estate Market - The conference stressed the importance of stabilizing the real estate market, with measures to control inventory and encourage the purchase of existing homes for affordable housing [16][17] - Policies will likely include easing purchase restrictions and providing financial support to boost housing demand [17] Debt Management - The government will continue to address local government debt risks, with a focus on proactive debt management and restructuring [18] - As of November, local governments had issued approximately 3.5 trillion yuan in various debt instruments to manage debt, exceeding initial targets [17][18]

作者 | 第一财经 吴斯旻 构建房地产发展新模式需要建立在"去库存"和"稳楼市"基础上。为此，明年楼市供给侧改革将进一步聚焦"控 增量、去库存、优供给"，把存量房盘活与保障房建设工作相结合。与此同时，高质量的城市更新有望成 为"稳楼市"的新抓手。 12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。"着力稳定房地产市场"被列入"坚持守牢底线，积极稳妥化 解重点领域风险"这一明年经济工作要抓好的重点任务中。 会议指出，着力稳定房地产市场，因城施策控增量、去库存、优供给，鼓励收购存量商品房重点用于保障性 住房等。深化住房公积金制度改革，有序推动"好房子"建设。加快构建房地产发展新模式。 "相较于去年9月份中央政治局会议中'严控增量、优化存量、提高质量'的提法，今年中央经济工作会议在展望 明年房地产工作中提出'控增量、去库存、优供给'。从'优化存量'到'去库存'，意味着在当前楼市总体需求偏 弱的背景下，去化压力仍然较大。明年需要以更大力度推动楼市去化，以实现房地产供求关系形成新的平 衡。"成都市城市建设发展研究院副院长冯波对第一财经表示。 上海易居房地产研究院副院长严跃进也认为，明年楼市政策的关键词是"去库存"。"从 ...