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开源证券晨会纪要-20251014
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-10-14 00:42
Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - In September, China's exports increased by 8.3% year-on-year, while imports rose by 7.4%, indicating a robust trade environment [3][7]. - The AI industry chain is identified as a significant driver of global trade demand, with Vietnam's exports surging by 25.3% year-on-year, attributed to AI-related needs [8][9]. - The stability of US demand for AI-related products remains strong, with imports showing consistent growth despite tariff impacts [9][10]. Group 2: New Stock Market Trends - The new stock market is experiencing a revival, with policies supporting high-quality hard technology companies for IPOs in 2025 [4][12]. - The average profit from new stock subscriptions has significantly increased, with top-tier accounts seeing returns rise from 4.3 million yuan in 2024 to 7.77 million yuan in 2025, a growth of 80.5% [12][13]. - The North Exchange has seen a remarkable increase in new stock performance, with an average first-day gain of 348.48% in 2025, compared to 104.09% in 2024 [13][14]. Group 3: Industry-Specific Developments - The craft beer market in China is projected to grow from 428 billion yuan in 2022 to 680 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 18.5% [20]. - The social service sector has underperformed the market, with a decline of 1.19% in the social service index over the past two weeks [21]. - The beauty and personal care sector is witnessing significant growth, with brands like 韩束 leading in sales on platforms like Douyin, showing a year-on-year increase of 19.69% in GMV [20][21]. Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - Shanghai Yizhong's core product, a paclitaxel polymer micelle, has gained traction since its approval in 2021 and is expected to see rapid growth after entering the medical insurance directory in 2024 [5][23]. - The company is advancing its pipeline with innovative drugs, including YXC-001 and YXC-002, which are anticipated to enter IND application stages by late 2025 and mid-2026, respectively [23][24]. - The paclitaxel micelle is noted for its efficacy and patient compliance, positioning it as a leading product in its category [24].
韩束官宣王嘉尔为品牌全球代言人;海关总署称中国潮玩成外贸出口新亮点丨消费早参
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-10-13 23:18
Group 1 - Han Shu officially announced Wang Jiaer as the global ambassador, marking his first endorsement for a domestic beauty brand, which aligns with the company's accelerated globalization strategy covering multiple countries [1] - Han Shu's projected revenue for 2024 is 5.591 billion yuan, representing an 80.9% year-on-year increase, with Douyin GMV reaching 6.784 billion yuan, maintaining its position as the top beauty brand [1] - The international celebrity endorsement is expected to enhance Han Shu's premium image and overseas recognition, potentially boosting social media engagement and new product sales [1] Group 2 - Zara plans to open a large flagship store in Shanghai on Huaihai Road, featuring five levels of retail space and incorporating the latest technological innovations for an enhanced consumer experience, set to open in the first half of 2026 [2] - The flagship store's location in a core business district reflects Zara's confidence in attracting high-end consumer traffic in China, which may contribute to Inditex's sales growth in the region [2] - The high rental and renovation costs associated with the flagship store could dilute profit margins if sales do not meet expectations, while the technological experience may strengthen brand loyalty and increase foot traffic in surrounding areas [2] Group 3 - Yonghui Supermarket announced a transformation towards product centralization over the next three years, with plans to create 100 billion-yuan-level products and expand its private label offerings to 500 by 2029 [3] - The company's strategy involves moving away from traditional hypermarket models to focus on quality and low-cost supply chain reforms, aiming to validate the benefits of store renovations in the short term [3] - The success of this transformation will depend on the ability to replicate the "Fat Donglai" model nationwide and the pace of strategic partnerships and SKU expansion, with potential valuation recovery if same-store sales improve [3] Group 4 - The General Administration of Customs highlighted the rise of domestic trendy products as a new highlight in foreign trade exports, with over 50 billion yuan in exports of holiday goods, dolls, and animal-shaped toys in the first three quarters of the year [4] - These products, which have gained global popularity, reflect the influence of traditional Chinese culture and the creativity of foreign trade enterprises, supported by China's manufacturing capabilities [4] - The designation of these trendy products as a "new highlight" is expected to boost market sentiment in the short term, while the long-term outlook depends on the resilience of products with original IP and overseas channels [4]
珀莱雅任命财务负责人,毕马威欧莱雅履历加持,赴港上市加速
Nan Fang Du Shi Bao· 2025-10-13 15:16
可以看到,金昶在进入珀莱雅曾在美妆巨头欧莱雅集团履职,具备相当程度的美妆行业经验。珀莱雅与 欧莱雅的"缘分"颇深。据南都记者了解,今年6月刚刚上任的珀莱雅产品开发负责人兼孵化品牌副总经 理汪奕峰也曾在欧莱雅任职。此前离职的珀莱雅CMO(首席营销官)叶伟在任职期间推动了珀莱雅在 电商渠道的内容营销转型,业内一度盛传其参考了欧莱雅的市场营销体系,珀莱雅那几年的业绩增速的 确在国货美妆品牌中一骑绝尘。 除了具备美妆大厂经验,金昶的履历中还曾任毕马威会计事务所高级审计师。值得注意的是,珀莱雅此 前公布2025年半年报的同时,还宣布拟发行境外上市股份(H 股)并在香港联合交易所有限公司主板挂 牌上市。目的是为加快公司的国际化战略和海外业务发展,增强公司的境外融资能力。 金昶曾在毕马威这样的"四大"审计事务所担任高级审计师,接受了系统审计和财务报告流程的训练,同 时又在阿克苏诺贝尔和欧莱雅这类跨国企业中负责过财务相关工作。这些背景意味着他对财务控制、成 本管理、预算规划、国际化财务规范、跨事业部协同等都有丰富经验。 另外,有熟悉港股资本市场的投资人告诉南都记者,跨境/赴港上市或是在国际资本市场环境下,投资 者和监管机构对 ...
对话李佳琦直播间选品师:“双11”新节奏下,谁将成为下一个“爆品”?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-13 15:08
作为电商行业下半年的一场"集体硬仗",第十一个"双11"的发令枪,响得比往年更早。 进入10月中旬,各大电商平台间的竞争节奏愈发清晰:10月7日,快手率先开启预售,以"抢跑"姿态抢 占时间窗口,锁定早期流量;仅隔两日,京东与抖音于10月9日先后入局;10月11日,小红书依托内容 生态优势,上线持续至11月11日的"双11"活动;而作为"双11"的开创者,淘天虽于10月15日晚8点才启 动预售,却将活动延伸至11月14日。 "感觉国庆之后,'双11'就开始了。"不少用户在社交平台上发出这样的感慨。京东、淘宝等APP悄然换 上"双11"专属图标,也印证了这场年度狂欢的提前到来。 然而,随着大促周期不断拉长、消费者决策日趋理性,一个问题逐渐浮出水面:在全新的节奏之下,哪 些产品能够突围而出成为 "爆品"? "今年我们选品策略的一个显著变化,是'非常看重新品'。"近日,李佳琦直播间选品负责人韩俏在接受 《国际金融报》记者采访时,道出了今年"双11"挖掘爆品的关键方向,"无论是全新品牌,还是经典品 牌的迭代产品,我们都致力于挖掘更多有潜力的新面孔"。 作为头部直播间的资深选品师,韩俏透露,从数据规律来看,首次参与李佳琦 ...
官宣王嘉尔代言 韩束及上美股份加速全球化布局
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang· 2025-10-13 12:13
Core Insights - Shanghai Shangmei Cosmetics Co., Ltd. announced international superstar Jackson Wang as the global ambassador for its core brand, Han Shu, marking Wang's first endorsement of a domestic beauty brand [1] - Han Shu, founded in 2003, achieved a revenue of 5.591 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 80.9%, and maintained the top position in Douyin's beauty category with a GMV of 6.784 billion yuan [1] - The brand's success is attributed to its continuous investment in research, product development, and brand building, establishing a strong presence in various channels [1][2] Brand Development - Han Shu has developed a multi-category matrix including skincare, makeup, hair care, and personal care, with several products achieving top positions in their respective categories [2] - The flagship product, Han Shu Red Waist Set, has sold over 16.5 million sets across all channels, consistently ranking first in Douyin's skincare set category [2] - The brand's marketing strategy includes signing popular figures like Ding Yuxi, Tian Xuning, and Jackson Wang to connect deeply with younger consumers [2] Global Strategy - The appointment of Jackson Wang is a significant step in Shangmei's globalization strategy, which aims to enhance the brand's international presence and reach broader audiences [2][3] - The company is expanding its global footprint through various cooperation models in countries such as Russia, Vietnam, Mongolia, Malaysia, and Indonesia [3] - Shangmei aims for substantial growth, targeting revenues of 10 billion yuan and eventually 30 billion yuan, as it navigates the global beauty market [3]
韩束官宣王嘉尔:一次“高端化+出海”宣言
FBeauty未来迹· 2025-10-13 11:24
Core Viewpoint - The announcement of international superstar Jackson Wang as the global ambassador for Han Shu signifies a transformative leap for the brand, marking a shift towards internationalization and a redefined brand image beyond traditional "national goods" labels [2][9][21]. Brand Transformation - Han Shu has evolved from a price-driven brand to one focused on scientific anti-aging, enhancing its product development and research capabilities [2][6]. - The collaboration with Jackson Wang represents a strategic upgrade in brand positioning, aiming to shed the image of being merely a "national alternative" and instead showcase a modern brand with technological and cultural depth [8][20]. Globalization Strategy - The partnership with an internationally influential figure like Jackson Wang allows Han Shu to expand its narrative and product experiences beyond China, aiming to establish itself as a representative of Chinese scientific beauty on the global stage [9][22]. - This move is part of Han Shu's ambition to become a "Chinese scientific beauty exporter," indicating a commitment to high-end transformation and international market penetration [9][21]. Market Performance - Han Shu has demonstrated strong market performance, maintaining a leading position on platforms like Douyin for 25 consecutive months and achieving significant sales milestones [10][16]. - The brand's user demographics show a concentration of over 74.95% in the 18-35 age range, indicating a strong appeal to the primary consumer base in the beauty market [10]. Research and Development - Han Shu has a robust foundation in research, having focused on peptide technology since 2003, and recently appointed a leading international expert to enhance its scientific capabilities [11][14]. - The introduction of the X Peptide series, featuring self-developed ingredients, exemplifies Han Shu's commitment to high-quality, effective skincare products that can compete with international brands [17][19]. Future Aspirations - The collaboration with Jackson Wang is seen as a strategic step towards achieving the brand's vision of becoming a billion-dollar entity, focusing on expanding its market presence and enhancing its product offerings [21][22]. - Han Shu aims to leverage its existing market dominance to build a sustainable growth trajectory that emphasizes premium positioning and international competitiveness [21].
【新华解读】外贸三季度答卷:平稳增长韧性显现 结构升级与品牌“出海”齐头并进
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-10-13 09:22
新华财经北京10月13日电(记者丁雅雯、吴慧珺)面对全球贸易格局的深刻变革与复杂严峻的外部环境,中国货物贸易展现出强劲韧性,不仅实现量的平 稳增长,更在结构上呈现出"向新向优"的升级趋势。与此同时,我国企业正加速从"产品出海"向"品牌出海"跨越,勾勒出中国外贸高质量发展的新图景。 外贸运行稳中有进 产业升级注入新动能 海关总署的数据显示,今年前三季度,我国货物贸易进出口总值33.61万亿元,同比增长4%,增速较前8月加快0.5个百分点。其中,出口19.95万亿元,同 比增长7.1%,连续8个季度保持增长;进口13.66万亿元,同比下降0.2%。 9月当月,进出口4.04万亿元,同比增长8%,比上月加快4.5个百分点,为今年以来月度最高增速。其中,出口增速达到8.4%,进口增速达到7.5%。 "今年以来,在复杂的外部环境下,我国货物贸易顶住了压力,实现了平稳增长,展现出较强的韧性,概括起来可以说有底气、有朝气、有锐气。"海关总 署副署长王军说。 东方金诚研究发展部执行总监冯琳认为,9月出口增速大幅上行,除去年同期低基数效应外,全球人工智能投资高涨带动相关产品出口是一个重要原因。 数据显示,9月我国集成电路出口同 ...
中金:内地黄金周年轻人成消费主力悦己消费长期布局 推荐潮玩及电子烟等板块
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-10-13 08:26
Core Insights - The report from CICC indicates that the consumption data for the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays in 2025 shows strong performance, driven by longer holiday periods and a high level of domestic and outbound travel [1] Group 1: Consumption Trends - Overall consumption data reflects a youthful and experience-oriented trend, with notable performance in discretionary categories such as home appliances and outdoor sports [1] - The average daily flow of cross-regional personnel in mainland China from October 1 to 8 increased by 6.2% year-on-year, indicating a robust travel environment [1] - The average spending per trip during the holiday increased by 14.6% year-on-year, attributed to the ongoing recovery of outbound tourism and a rise in long-distance and segmented travel within the country [1] Group 2: Retail Performance - The Ministry of Commerce's monitoring of 78 key business districts showed a year-on-year increase in foot traffic and sales of 4.2% and 4% respectively during the first three days of the holiday [1] - Data from the National Immigration Administration revealed that the average daily number of inbound and outbound travelers exceeded 2 million, marking a 15% year-on-year increase [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - CICC recommends focusing on sectors benefiting from self-indulgent consumption trends, such as trendy toys and e-cigarettes, highlighting companies like Pop Mart (09992), Blucor (00325), and Smoore International (06969) [1] - The report also suggests investing in domestic brands in the beauty and personal care sectors, recommending companies like Mao Geping (01318), Giant Bio (02367), and Shanghai Jahwa (600315) [1] - Attention is drawn to retail sectors that may benefit from supportive domestic policies and seasonal catalysts [1]
总投资超40亿元的 “美妆小镇”即将开工
Mei Ri Shang Bao· 2025-10-13 07:24
"希望可以打造世界的城市美妆时尚产业中心,中国的美妆时尚产业城市核心。"艺尚小镇相关负责人表 示,该项目一旦落地,国内美妆产业集群的格局将被改写。 未来,摩尚·PARK将依托国内外头部美妆品牌的产业资源优势,共同在临平新城范围内打造集研发、销 售及供应链集合为一体的国际美妆时尚产业基地。聚集总部中心、销售中心、研发中心、品牌中心、发 布中心等,打造产业聚集中心,达到集群效应,推动产业复合型发展。 商报讯(记者 周振琪)近日,杭州市临平区发布了摩尚PARK国际美妆时尚产业基地项目杭政储出 〔2025〕70号地块建筑设计方案进行公示的说明。 据悉,该项目地块位于乔司街道汀城单元,东至良熟路,南至文正街(在建),西至规划星仁路(暂命 名),北至东仁街。项目整体规划284亩,预计总投资额将超过40亿元,目前一期占地84亩左右,计划 于今年年底动工。本次公示仅为方案展示,后期施工图深化阶段时,相关规划指标、景观及消防等专项 设计允许在符合规划条件的前提下进行适当调整。 摩尚·PARK项目定位"国家级美妆时尚产业总部聚集中心",按照规划,美妆时尚类企业将是入驻摩尚 ·PARK的主力,其他相关服务行业企业也计划搭配入驻,预 ...
上美股份涨超3% 9月抖音韩束继续领跑 机构看好公司增长动能延续
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-10-13 07:00
上美股份(02145)涨超3%,截至发稿,涨3.1%,报96.4港元,成交额4911.96万港元。 消息面上,据青眼情报,2025年9月抖音美妆TOP20品牌总GMV突破30亿元,市场份额为17.6%,同比 增长38.59%,韩束以超5亿元GMV继续领跑。华泰证券表示,公司上半年收入及利润增长表现均靓丽, 进入下半年以来,该行观察到上美主品牌韩束继续拓展次抛精华/香氛沐浴露等多品类,8月增长动能强 劲,趋势有望延续;多品牌拓展亦顺利,下半年以来聚光白/面包超人/NAN beauty陆续落地,催化剂不 断。当前公司多品牌/多品类孵化及运营能力已得初步验证,若能力持续复制天花板上限有望再打开, 内部高效能、强执行力组织架构奠定底层根基,维持买入评级。 ...