Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in the U.S. stock market, driven by uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the impact of incomplete employment data due to a government shutdown [1][2][4]. Economic Data and Federal Reserve - The October employment report, which was supposed to be released on November 7, was not published due to the government shutdown, leading to a lack of unemployment rate data [3]. - Analysts express concerns that the absence of complete economic data complicates the Federal Reserve's decision-making process regarding interest rate cuts, contributing to a pessimistic outlook among investors [4][5]. - The market's expectation for a rate cut in December has shifted from being almost certain to a more uncertain stance, influenced by differing opinions among Federal Reserve officials [5]. Stock Market Performance - Major U.S. stock indices experienced significant declines, with the Dow Jones dropping approximately 300 points, the Nasdaq falling over 1.5%, and the S&P 500 decreasing by about 1% [2]. - Notable declines in individual stocks include Tesla down 5.73%, Arm down 5.36%, and Disney's stock plummeting nearly 10% despite better-than-expected earnings due to revenue shortfalls [6][7]. Market Sentiment - The article highlights a general sense of volatility in the market as investors react to the uncertain economic landscape and the Federal Reserve's potential policy shifts [4][5].

Market Performance - The U.S. stock market showed a mixed performance on November 12, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.68% to set a new closing high, while the S&P 500 increased by 0.06% and the Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.26% [1] - Large technology stocks faced pressure, with Oracle down 3.88%, Meta and Tesla dropping over 2%, and Amazon and Google declining more than 1%. However, Nvidia, Microsoft, and Broadcom saw slight increases, with Qualcomm rising over 1% and AMD surging by 9% [1] - Bank stocks performed strongly, with Jefferies up over 5%, Goldman Sachs rising more than 3%, and Citigroup and Morgan Stanley increasing by over 2% [1] - Gold stocks also showed strong performance, with Hecla Mining and Harmony Gold both rising over 5% [1] Chinese Concept Stocks - Chinese concept stocks did not follow the upward trend of some U.S. indices, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index falling by 1.46% [2] - Notable declines included Tencent Music down over 8%, and other companies like Xpeng Motors, NIO, iQIYI, and Baidu dropping more than 2%. Li Auto, Alibaba, and JD.com also experienced declines exceeding 1% [2] Government Shutdown Resolution - There is strong market expectation regarding the resolution of the U.S. government shutdown crisis, which has lasted for 43 days, marking the longest in U.S. history [3][4] - The House of Representatives is set to vote on a temporary funding bill that would provide government funding until January 30 of the following year and ensure back pay for affected federal employees [4] - The political deadlock has caused significant disruptions, including forced leave for federal employees and interruptions in government services, with both parties blaming each other for the crisis [4] Federal Reserve Personnel Changes - The unexpected announcement of Atlanta Fed President Bostic's retirement on February 28, 2026, has raised speculation about potential changes in the Federal Reserve's decision-making structure [5] - This retirement comes at a time when the Trump administration is seeking to exert influence over the Federal Reserve's personnel decisions, including attempts to remove certain board members and determine the successor to current Fed Chair Powell [5] - The traditional process of reappointment for the 12 regional Fed presidents may face changes due to the current political climate and the administration's active involvement [5]

Core Viewpoint - Oppenheimer and its team suggest that investors should diversify away from the U.S. market due to high stock valuations limiting upside potential, predicting a 6.5% annualized return for the S&P 500 over the next decade, the weakest among all regions. Emerging markets are expected to be the strongest, with an annualized return of 10.9% [1][5]. Group 1 - The S&P 500 index has significantly lagged behind global peers this year, with a 16% increase compared to a 27% rise in the MSCI global index excluding the U.S. [5] - Oppenheimer's report emphasizes the benefits of diversifying investments towards emerging markets, driven by higher nominal GDP growth and structural reforms, with long-term AI benefits expected to be widespread rather than limited to the U.S. tech sector [5][6]. - Strong earnings growth in China and India is anticipated to drive the rise of emerging markets in the coming years [5]. Group 2 - The annualized return for Asian markets, excluding Japan, is projected at 10.3%, while Japan is expected to yield 8.2% and Europe 7.1% [5]. - Oppenheimer warned last year that U.S. stock valuations were becoming excessive and advocated for a shift towards international markets, predicting that the S&P 500's performance will lag behind most regions by 2025 [5][6]. - The S&P 500's forward P/E ratio has surged to 23 times, nearing record highs seen before the internet bubble, with current valuations over 50% higher than global peers [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is showing active performance with the Hang Seng China (Hong Kong listed) 30 Index maintaining a high-level consolidation, driven by both technology and high-dividend stocks, indicating a potential bullish trend in the near term [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market has seen significant liquidity improvement this year, with net inflows exceeding 1.3 trillion HKD, marking a record high since the launch of the Hong Kong Stock Connect in 2014 [4]. - The Hong Kong Large Cap 30 ETF (520560) has shown a robust performance, rising over 1% during intraday trading, with a half-day trading volume exceeding 43 million HKD, approaching the total volume of the previous day [1][4]. Group 2: Stock Movements - Notable stock movements include BeiGene (百济神州) rising over 7% driven by performance, and Nongfu Spring (农夫山泉) increasing by 3% to reach a new high, while Alibaba (阿里巴巴-W) and Pop Mart (泡泡玛特) experienced a decline of 2% [3][4]. - The top-performing stocks in the index include BeiGene with a weight of 2.01% and a rise of 7.29%, followed by China Life (中国人寿) and China Resources Land (华润置地) with increases of 4.23% and 4.25% respectively [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The continuous inflow of southbound funds is expected to drive the capital market back to fundamentals and value-driven approaches, supporting a "slow bull" market for Hong Kong stocks [5]. - The investment strategy suggested includes a "barbell strategy," focusing on increasing positions in technology stocks while also emphasizing high-dividend and turnaround stocks [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the mixed performance of the U.S. stock market amid concerns over the impact of a prolonged government shutdown on economic data collection and future market trends [1][2][4]. Market Performance - The U.S. stock market showed a split performance with the Dow Jones rising by 1.18%, the S&P 500 slightly up by 0.21%, while the Nasdaq fell by 0.25% [1]. - Major tech stocks exhibited varied results, with Apple up over 2% and Nvidia down nearly 3%, influenced by SoftBank's decision to liquidate its holdings in Nvidia [1]. Chinese Concept Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index experienced a slight decline of 0.06%, with mixed performances among Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers [2]. - Xpeng Motors saw a significant gain of over 7%, while Alibaba and Tencent Music dropped more than 3% [2]. Economic Data Concerns - The government shutdown has led to significant disruptions in the collection of key economic data for October, raising concerns about the accuracy of economic assessments [2][3]. - The absence of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and household surveys could hinder market evaluations of inflation and unemployment [3][4]. Data Release Challenges - Analysts are concerned about the backlog of economic data that will need to be addressed once the government reopens, with predictions of a "data explosion" as agencies catch up [5][6]. - The September employment report is expected to be one of the first data releases post-shutdown, as it was completed before the shutdown began [5]. Market Outlook - Historical data suggests that the end of government shutdowns often leads to positive market movements, with an average increase of 2.3% in the S&P 500 in the month following such events [8]. - The article indicates that the market may experience a rally as the government reopens, despite the challenges posed by the recent shutdown and the mixed performance of tech stocks [8].

Market Overview - US stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones up by 0.36%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices fell by 0.74% and 0.29% respectively [2] - Major tech stocks experienced a decline, with notable drops from Nvidia at 3.31% and Tesla at 2.28%, while Apple saw an increase of 1.59% [4][5] SoftBank's Financial Moves - SoftBank disclosed in its latest financial report that it has completely liquidated its position in Nvidia, generating $5.83 billion in funds. Additionally, it reduced its stake in T-Mobile, raising $9.17 billion [5] - The last time SoftBank sold its Nvidia shares was in 2019, where it invested $4 billion and made a profit of $3 billion. If it had retained those shares, the current value would exceed $240 billion [5] Labor Market Concerns - The US labor market is showing signs of deterioration, with ADP reporting an average weekly loss of 11,250 jobs in the private sector for the four weeks ending October 25 [7] - A report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas indicated that the number of announced layoffs in October was the highest for that month in over two decades, raising concerns about the health of the labor market [8] - A survey by the University of Michigan revealed that 71% of respondents expect the unemployment rate to rise in the next year, the highest percentage since 1980 [8] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market faced a significant downturn, with Bitcoin dropping to $103,881 and Ethereum falling below $3,500, resulting in over 140,000 liquidations totaling $417 million [9][10] - The International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) warned that tokenized assets linked to mainstream financial assets could pose new risks to investors, highlighting the ongoing debate within the financial industry regarding the benefits and drawbacks of tokenization [11][12] Tokenization Insights - IOSCO noted that while interest in tokenization is rising, actual applications remain limited, and the efficiency gains from blockchain technology are not uniformly distributed [14][16] - The organization emphasized that market participants still rely on traditional market infrastructure during transactions, which undermines the potential benefits of blockchain [16][17]

Group 1: Precious Metals Futures - Spot gold prices showed strong performance, breaking through $4,110 per ounce with an increase of 2.72%, and further rising to $4,120 per ounce [1][2] - New York futures gold also rose, surpassing $4,120 per ounce with a daily increase of 2.75% [3] - Silver's main contract surged by 3%, currently reported at ¥11,895.00 per ton [4] Group 2: Macroeconomic and Market Impact - Federal Reserve official Milan suggested a 50 basis point rate cut in December is appropriate, with at least a 25 basis point cut [5] - Musallam noted that the actual federal funds rate has decreased by 250 basis points over the past year, but further easing has limited space, while the Fed report indicates that housing and stock prices seem elevated [6][7][8] - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office estimated the budget deficit for October at $219 billion [9] Group 3: Financial Futures Market Dynamics - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher on Monday, with the Dow Jones up 0.81%, S&P 500 up 1.54%, and Nasdaq rising over 2% to 2.27%, driven by gains in large tech stocks [10] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index also rose, with a daily increase of 2.13%, closing at 8,229.270 points [11] - Among popular Chinese concept stocks, XPeng Motors led with a 16.15% increase, while Vipshop and Baidu rose over 5% [12]

Market Performance - US stock markets experienced a significant rebound, with the Nasdaq leading the gains, as major indices rose: Dow Jones up 0.81%, Nasdaq up 2.27%, and S&P 500 up 1.54% [2] - The technology sector saw substantial growth, with the "Big Seven" tech stocks index rising nearly 3%, and all component stocks recording gains [4] Government Action - The US Senate advanced a temporary funding bill for the federal government, which received the necessary 60 votes for procedural support, indicating a high likelihood of passing in the formal vote [4][6] - The resolution of the government shutdown is expected to alleviate liquidity risks in the short term, although the Federal Reserve's stance will ultimately determine the liquidity environment [4][5] Commodity Market - International gold prices recovered, surpassing the $4100 per ounce mark, with COMEX gold futures and London spot gold both increasing by nearly 3% [6][7] - Oil prices also saw an uptick, with NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent crude futures both rising, reflecting a positive trend in the commodities market [6][7] Investment Outlook - Analysts suggest that the resilience of corporate earnings, particularly in AI companies, will be crucial for sustaining high valuations in the US stock market [4][5] - The upcoming employment data will be critical; poor data may lead to further market declines and increased expectations for interest rate cuts in December [5]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's government is signaling a significant shift in fiscal policy, moving away from strict budget balance commitments to a more flexible multi-year spending plan, coinciding with a surge of capital inflow into the Japanese stock market from the U.S. [1][5][9] Group 1: Fiscal Policy Changes - Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi announced plans to abandon the current annual budget balance target in favor of a new multi-year fiscal goal, allowing for greater spending flexibility [5][6] - The government aims to restore market confidence in Japan's finances while increasing investments to boost economic growth [6][7] - Takaichi's government plans to create a spending plan to address rising living costs and increase investments in growth sectors and defense [7][8] Group 2: Market Performance and Investment Trends - The Nikkei 225 index rose by 1.26%, reaching 50,911.76 points, reflecting renewed market confidence [2] - Goldman Sachs reported that U.S. capital inflows into the Japanese stock market are at the fastest pace since "Abenomics," with a 30% return in USD terms for Japanese stocks this year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 [4][8] - The participation of U.S. investors in the Japanese stock market has reached its highest level since October 2022, with a notable focus on technology and AI sectors [8][9] Group 3: Risks and Warnings - Citi Group issued a warning about overheating in Japanese tech stocks, noting that valuations have surpassed those of the U.S. "Big Seven" tech companies without corresponding profit support [9][10] - The PEG ratio for the MSCI Japan IT sector has exceeded the overall level of the Tokyo Stock Exchange index, indicating potential valuation concerns [9][10] - Despite a long-term optimistic outlook for Japanese stocks, there are short-term risks related to yen appreciation, market downturns, tech stock corrections, and declining NT ratios [10]

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market has erased nearly all gains accumulated in the first ten months of the year within just over a month, with Bitcoin's price dropping significantly from its record high [2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - Bitcoin's price rebounded to above $103,000 after a week of sharp declines but remains approximately 18% lower than its record high of $120,000 set on October 6 [2][3]. - The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies peaked at nearly $440 billion on October 6 but has since fallen by about 20%, leaving only a 2.5% gain year-to-date [4]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - The decline in cryptocurrencies is causing concern among Wall Street, as Bitcoin is viewed as a leading indicator for high-volatility stocks [4][16]. - The previously successful "buy the dip" strategy is failing, leading to increased market caution [6][10]. - Recent data shows that investors withdrew over $700 million from digital asset ETFs in just one week, with nearly $600 million coming from BlackRock's Bitcoin fund [12]. Group 3: Correlation with Tech Stocks - The recent cryptocurrency crash coincides with concerns over the valuation of AI tech stocks, indicating a cooling risk appetite in high-risk asset classes [6][8]. - Stocks like Palantir, which are closely associated with AI and cryptocurrencies, have seen significant declines, reflecting a broader trend affecting meme stocks and unprofitable tech companies [6][11]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The lack of new capital inflow into alternative tokens and DeFi projects has been noted, with most areas of the crypto market remaining stagnant [13]. - A significant liquidation of leveraged positions worth approximately $19 billion occurred weeks ago, and the market has yet to recover from this shock [15]. - The number of long-term "whale" investors is declining, raising concerns about tightening liquidity in the market [17].