记者丨江佩霞 刘雪莹 见习记者张嘉钰 编辑丨张楠 据央视新闻，美国联邦储备委员会10日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目 标区间下调25个基点至3.5%至3.75%之间。 在美联储主席鲍威尔明确明年年初加息不在讨论范围之后，三大指数尾盘大幅反弹，标普500 指数逼近10月创下的历史新高，道指上涨超1%涨幅近500点。 IH = 11 14 P 联邦基金利率目标区间下调至 3.50%-3.75%,本轮降息周 期已累计降息175个基点。 美联储联邦基金利率上限(%) 6 - 5.50 5.00 5 - 4.75 4.51 4.25 4 - 4.00 4.00 3.75 3.25 3 - 2.50 2 - 1.75 1.00 1 - 0.50 0.25 0 2025 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 8月 8月 8月 8月 8月 12月 资料来源: Wind 市场影响 11 股市 利举 卜库自助丁降低木米现金流的扩现举,从 而提升成长型公司的估值,科技股将率先受益 童金 金银价格的长期核心驱动因素保持稳健,短期 调整不改长期趋势,且下方空间相对有限。白 银今年涨幅巨大,注意回调风险 美 ...

分析师指出，如果日本央行加息，可能导致日元套利交易平仓，一旦美元兑日元下跌且10年期美债收益 率升破约4.5%，将对英伟达（NVDA）、Meta（META）、微软（MSFT）等美国科技股及QQQ/长期债 券组合等久期资产构成压力。 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 分析师指出，如果日本央行加息，可能导致日元套利交易平仓，一旦美元兑日元下跌且10年期美债收益 率升破约4.5%，将对英伟达（NVDA）、Meta（META）、微软（MSFT）等美国科技股及QQQ/长期债 券组合等久期资产构成压力。 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the major indices fluctuating, while the Chinese concept index fell by 1.37% [1] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index and the National Index opened flat, with the Hang Seng Tech Index slightly down by 0.04% [1] - Large technology stocks experienced varied performance, with Meituan rising by 1% [1] Group 2 - Spot silver prices surged to a new high, while gold stocks and copper industry stocks saw collective gains, indicating a rebound in the precious metals sector [1] - Real estate stocks in China, which had been on a downward trend, experienced some rebound [1] - However, gambling stocks, software stocks, and military industry stocks declined [1] Group 3 - The new stock Baoyi Pharmaceutical opened nearly 130% higher, indicating strong market interest [1]

来源：第一财经 本文字数：1180，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 胡弋杰 当地时间周二（12月9日），美国股市在美联储年内最后一次议息会议前交投谨慎，三大指数窄幅波 动。 截至收盘，标普500指数微跌0.09%至6840.51点；纳斯达克指数涨0.13%报23576.49点；道指下跌179.03 点至47560.29点，受摩根大通因2026年费用指引偏高而走弱拖累。 小盘股在利率预期推动下保持韧性，罗素2000指数盘中再创历史新高，最终收涨0.21%报2526.24点。 大型科技股走势分化。微软上涨0.20%，亚马逊上涨0.45%，谷歌A上涨1.07%，特斯拉涨1.27%；苹果 下跌0.26%，英伟达下跌0.33%，Meta走弱1.48%。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌1.37%。热门中概股多数回落：百度跌超4%，小鹏、理想、贝壳跌逾3%。 芝加哥商品交易所的美联储观察工具显示，本次议息会议降息25个基点的概率约为90%，显著高于一个 月前的不足67%。分析人士认为，小盘股近期强劲反弹，即体现市场对更宽松金融环境的押注。 但真正左右资产价格的被认为是美联储对未来路径的态度，包括点阵图对2026年的利率展 ...

记者丨黎雨桐 编辑丨金珊 周二（12月9日），美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，道指跌0.38%，标普500指数跌0.09%，纳指涨0.13%。 | 道琼斯 | 纳斯达克 | 标普500 | | --- | --- | --- | | 47560.29 | 23576.49 | 6840.51 | | -179.03 -0.38% | +30.59 +0.13% | -6.00 -0.09% | | 中国金龙指数 | 纳指100期货 | 标普500期货 | | 7730.60 | 25676.25 | 6846.25 | | -107.15 -1.37% | +12.25 +0.05% | -9.50 -0.14% | 大型科技股涨跌互现，万得美国科技七巨头指数上涨0.14%。特斯拉、谷歌涨超1%，亚马逊涨0.45%， 微软涨0.20%，脸书跌超1%，苹果跌0.26%，英伟达跌0.31%。 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | | --- | --- | | 4209.390 | 60.561 | | +2.800 +0.07% -0.092 -0.15% | | 加密货币普涨，比特币涨破92000美元关口。近24小时全球 ...

智通财经APP获悉，Strategas Group的数据显示，在本周三美联储做出决定后，美国股市在任一方向上 的隐含波动幅度略低于 1%。若出现如此幅度的波动，这将是自3月以来美联储决议后基准股指的最大 单日波动。 过去六周，围绕利率决议的波动性一直是股票交易的主要特征之一，其重要性甚至超越了对人工智能泡 沫和美国总统特朗普贸易政策影响的担忧。11 月中旬，市场对降息的隐含概率一度跌至 30%，就在此 之前，标普 500 指数和纳斯达克 100 指数从 10 月底的纪录高点下跌了 5% 以上。 纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯在 11 月 21 日表示，他认为近期有放松政策的空间，市场将此解读为对 12 月降息的全力支持。此后，市场对降息的定价已达到 97% 的可能性，标普 500 指数也随之跳涨 3.7%。 摩根大通证券的技术策略师杰森·亨特表示："自 10 月底以来，市场的运行轨迹主要取决于市场对 12 月 政策利率放松的隐含概率。" 标普500指数走势受美联储降息概率影响 周三波动性的潜在可能主要来自于美联储官员之间可能出现的分歧。预计将有 三名政策制定者反对降 息。投资者还将获得个别委员更新后的经济预测，以 ...

在政策的积极推动下，市场风格或将向高弹性、成长板块切换。会议强调"内需主导"，复苏逻辑下 顺周期消费、以化工与有色为代表中上游周期股的利润弹性有望爆发。"新质生产力"作为顶层设计的核 心，叠加宽松的货币环境，对科技股构成显著利好。 在成长占优期，A500相对沪深300往往能体现出风格驱动的超额。A500覆盖93个三级行业中的90 个，显著高于沪深300的61个/中证500的83个，行业表征更全面；权重上无单一行业超过10%，凸显均 衡分散的宽基属性。A500在风格上偏向成长与周期，相较沪深300明显降低金融、提升成长与周期权 重，更贴合中国制造业转型升级与新质生产力方向。今年以来资金稳定流入中证A500ETF，保险资金在 中证A500ETF上持仓规模与份额上均已超越沪深300ETF，体现长久资金的配置倾向与认可度提升。 在经济回暖与成长占优的预期下，建议投资者关注中证A500ETF(159338) 作为核心底仓提升组合对 新质生产力的覆盖，布局财政、货币支持下的慢牛行情。 风险提示： 投资人应当充分了解基金定期定额投资和零存整取等储蓄方式的区别。定期定额投资是引导投资人 进行长期投资、平均投资成本的一种简单易 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced a rebound on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3924 points, up 0.54%, and the ChiNext Index rising by 2.6% [1] - The total market turnover was approximately 2.05 trillion, showing an increase compared to the previous period [1] Key Focus Areas - The market's rise was primarily driven by gains in non-bank financials and technology stocks, supported by insurance funds adjusting risk factors to release more investable capital [2] - The Politburo meeting emphasized the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, indicating a favorable policy environment [2] - Despite the A-share market's increase, the Hang Seng Index fell by 1.2%, suggesting weak foreign capital inflow and limited signs of savings migration [2] Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index filled the gap from November 21 and closed slightly above the 20-day moving average, indicating that the technical rebound target has been achieved [2] - Future movements may require consolidation rather than a sustained upward trend, with attention on the potential for a "hawkish rate cut" from the Federal Reserve [2] External Market Conditions - Overnight, U.S. stock markets saw slight declines, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.45% and the Nasdaq down 0.14% [3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to approximately 4.16%, indicating a shift in bond market sentiment [3] - The A50 index and Hang Seng futures showed minor declines, reflecting a stable external environment [3] Investment Strategy - The strategy leans towards a rotational approach, focusing on sectors such as industrial machinery, satellite internet, and semiconductor equipment materials, which are seen as key areas for investment [3] - Continuous monitoring of external policy changes, including potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, is essential for guiding investment decisions [3]

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 有些时候，当投资周期走到尽头，明智的做法是套现离场，但对于那些已经在股市连续三年获得两位数 涨幅的全球资产管理公司来说，现在还不是跑路的时候。 摩根大通资产管理的全球多资产策略师Sylvia Sheng表示，"我们对稳健增长以及宽松货币和财政政策的 预期，支持我们在多资产投资组合中采取风险偏好的倾向。我们仍然超配股票和信贷。" DWS美洲首席投资官David Bianco说，"我们正在顺应当前的强劲趋势，并看涨至明年年底，目前我们 不做逆向投资者。" "年初应保持充足的敞口，甚至是超额配置股票，主要是新兴市场股票，"Lombard Odier的EMEA首席投 资官Nannette Hechler-Fayd'herbe也表示。"我们预计2026年不会发生衰退。" 这些评估来自机构对美国、亚洲和欧洲的39位投资经理的采访，其中包括贝莱德、安联全球、高盛和富 兰克林邓普顿的经理。 采访显示，超过四分之三的资产配置者正在为到2026年的风险偏好环境配置投资组合。这一押注的核心 在于，具有韧性的全球增长、人工智能的进一步发展、宽松的货币政策和财政刺激将在各类全球 ...

Market Overview - The US ADP employment and PMI data for November were both below expectations, with PMI at 48.2 (expected 49) and ADP employment decreasing by 32,000 (expected an increase of 10,000), reinforcing the Fed's rate cut expectations[3] - The 10Y US Treasury yield rose to 4.14%, up 12 basis points, while the US dollar index fell by 0.46% to 99.0, indicating a continued weak dollar environment[3][9] - Most global equity indices rose, with the Korean Composite Stock Price Index leading the gains, while the Brazilian stock market saw significant declines[3][8] Fund Flows - Both domestic and foreign capital flowed out of the Chinese equity market, with foreign capital exiting by $5.02 million and domestic capital by $20.15 million in the past week[3][15] - Global money market funds saw inflows of $1,123.3 million, while US equity funds experienced inflows of $16.3 million, contrasting with a $25.2 million outflow from Chinese equity funds[15][16] Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index's valuation percentile is at 84.3%, second only to the S&P 500 and CAC 40, but remains significantly lower than US equities in absolute PE terms[3][14] - The risk-adjusted return percentile for the Shanghai Composite has decreased from 88% to 80%, indicating a decline in relative performance[3] Risk Sentiment - The implied volatility for the Shanghai Composite options has shown a significant increase, reflecting greater market uncertainty and diverging views on price levels[3][6] - The S&P 500 closed at 6,870.40, remaining above the 20-day moving average, with a put-call ratio of 1.07, indicating stable market sentiment[3][6] Economic Data - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December is at 86.20%, with a 90.20% chance of rates falling to 3.5%-3.75% by January 2026, suggesting a high likelihood of further easing[3][6]