作 者丨吴斌,钱伯彦 编 辑丨包芳鸣,张铭心,江佩佩 美股再遭猛烈抛售! 3月2 8日晚间，美股三大指数集体低开，截至发稿跌幅还在扩大。热门中概股普跌，纳斯达克 中国金龙指数一度跌超3%，纳斯达克指数跌2%，万得美国科技七巨头指数暴跌超11 0 0点，跌 幅2 . 3%，年初至今该指数跌幅已超1 4%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DJI | 道琼斯工业指数 | 41761.35 | -538.35 | -1.27% | -1.84% | | IXIC | 纳斯达克指数 | 17445.34 | -358.69 | -2.01% | -9.66% | | града | 标普500 | 5609.50 | -83.81 | -1.47% | -4.63% | | NDX | 纳斯达克100 | 19426.67 | -371.95 | -1.88% | -7.55% | | MAGS | 万得美国科技七巨头指数 | 47309.67 | -1112.78 | -2.30% | -14.34 ...

Group 1 - The market adjustment is primarily driven by emotional factors, while supportive factors remain unchanged [2][3] - Policy support for the market's positive expectations is clear, with a focus on stabilizing the stock market [3] - Economic data from January to February shows steady improvement, indicating a positive outlook for the fundamentals [3] Group 2 - There are two key time points remaining in the year: the first is the opportunity arising from external risks settling in early April, and the second is the synchronization of the US and China economic and policy cycles mid-year [4][5] - The first key time point involves the resolution of external risks, including the outcomes of the US trade policy investigations and clarity on tariffs, which may lead to a focus on technology themes in April and May [5] - The second key time point anticipates a potential economic stimulus in China due to weakening US economic conditions and increased tariff pressures, which could lead to a significant style shift in the market [5] Group 3 - Short-term fluctuations in technology stocks do not alter the long-term positive trend, as the global economy is undergoing a restructuring under US tariffs, highlighting China's development potential [6][7] - Artificial intelligence is expected to drive industry transformation and technological innovation in China over the coming years, making it a central theme for the market [7] Group 4 - The upward trend in the market has not been broken, despite short-term fluctuations [8][9] - The current domestic economic recovery expectations remain intact, with A-share earnings likely to recover, and the market's short-term adjustments are not indicative of a trend reversal [9] - Focus areas include sectors with strong defensive characteristics and dividend advantages, such as emerging consumption, traditional Chinese medicine, renewable energy, and state-owned banks [9]

春季行情已经结束？3月24日，凌晨的三大重要消息全面袭来！ 一、养老金突发改革！财政部：中央财政拿出"真金白银"大力促消费，提高养老金、发放育儿补贴等增强消费能力。虽然还没正式公布，但很多机构都估计 这个比率会保持在2.5%到3%之间，甚至可能更低。 简单来说，大A从趋势上看，慢慢往上的逻辑不会变。在大蓝筹股真正启动之前，就是慢慢涨，然后急跌，又回到原点。等大蓝筹等价值洼地的票都启动 了，才有可能真正突破这个整数关，那个前高啥的。 二、A股上涨天数44日，从上涨时空看本轮春季行情或已步入后半程。 短期内，推动市场上涨的动力可能要弱一些了。首先，年初以来，在Deepseek主题的推动下，科技股表现得很牛，但从估值水平、成交额占比和换手率这些 指标来看，科技股短期可能已经阶段性过热了。 最近A股市场晃得厉害，上证指数跌破3400点，创业板指跌得更惨，市场情绪一下子跌到谷底。不过，回顾历史，每次市场情绪极度悲观的时候，其实都是 布局的好机会。那现在这种情况，我们该怎么办呢？ 其次，这轮A股春季行情的启动，也得益于港股的走强。后续南向资金的流入可能会回归到正常水平，如果增量资金退潮，港股可能会有波动，进而影响A 股的 ...

截至2 0 2 5年1月底，纽约证券交易所和纳斯达克的上市公司总市值超3 0万亿美元，远超全球其他 交易所。亚洲市场中上交所、日本证券交易所和印度国家证券交易所市值虽超5万亿美元，但仍 远低于美国交易所。从流动性来看，美股及深交所日均成交额均突破千亿美元，而东南亚部分市 场日均成交额不足1 0亿美元，反映出部分亚洲新兴市场的流动性仍较有限。回顾过去五年全球市 场规模和流动性表现，全球上市公司数量保持稳定，发达市场增长放缓，而中国和印度等新兴市 场成为推动增长的主要力量。美股市场仍然主导全球股票市值和流动性，纳斯达克和纽约证券交 易所的市值持续上升，受益于科技股上涨和流动性回暖。与此同时，中国大陆和印度市场的市值 与交易活跃度稳步提升，特别是深圳证券交易所成交量在2 0 2 4年底大幅攀升，显示出市场活跃度 的增强。相比之下，日本、中国香港、新加坡等成熟市场虽保持稳定，但整体增长动能有限。未 来，全球资本市场格局可能进一步调整，投资者对新兴市场的关注度或将持续上升。 文 ｜ 杨宇泽 顾晟曦 车宇璇 赵文荣 刘方 本报告聚焦全球股票市场的运行特征与结构变化，提供定量跟踪与横向比较，供投资者参考。基于 最新数据，报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article reviews the performance of the dividend style in 2024, analyzes the timing effects of the dividend style in a low interest rate environment from an overseas perspective, introduces dividend stock selection strategies and event effects, and provides an outlook on the future performance of the dividend style in the current low interest rate environment [1][10]. Group 1: Dividend Performance in 2024 - The dividend style showed strong performance in 2024, with excess returns relative to the CSI All Share Index from 2021 to 2024, indicating a stable return profile [3]. - Since the end of May 2024, there has been a degree of internal differentiation within the dividend style, with financial and utility sectors maintaining stability while cyclical sectors experienced some pullback [3]. - Insurance funds have increased their allocation to dividend assets, as evidenced by the top holders of dividend ETFs [3]. Group 2: Timing of Dividend Style - The analysis draws on experiences from the US, UK, Germany, and Japan to assess how dividend and growth styles perform in low interest rate environments [4][14]. - Both dividend and growth styles performed well in low interest rate environments, with annualized returns of 21%, 11%, 8%, and 10% in the US, UK, Germany, and Japan respectively [4][15]. - Growth style is more sensitive to interest rate changes, with dividend style potentially having an advantage during periods of rising low interest rates [4][17]. Group 3: Dividend Stock Selection Strategy - A constrained dividend selection strategy, limiting industry and market capitalization deviations to within 5% of the CSI Dividend Index, achieved a stable excess return of 4.74% in 2024 and an annualized excess return of 7.65% since 2010 [6][33]. - Companies announcing high dividend plans typically achieve excess returns around the announcement date, with a notable effect observed in the period leading up to the ex-dividend date [6][38]. Group 4: Outlook for Dividend Style - The overall outlook for the dividend style in a low interest rate environment is positive, with expectations of absolute returns driven by interest rate trends and the influx of medium to long-term capital [7][37]. - The anticipated decline in interest rates in 2025 may favor growth style, but the expansion of medium to long-term capital inflows could further boost the dividend style [7][36].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of Trump's tariff policies on the US stock market and the surge in gold prices, highlighting the uncertainty in the US economic outlook and the resulting market reactions [1][5][9]. Group 1: US Stock Market Performance - On March 13, US stock indices fell across the board, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all dropping over 1%, and the major tech index declining over 2% [2][3]. - The Nasdaq index has entered a technical correction, having dropped over 10% from recent highs, with significant losses in major tech stocks, particularly Tesla, which saw a drop of over 15% in a single day [4][5]. - The overall sentiment in the US stock market is pessimistic, driven by concerns over a potential economic recession and the volatility caused by Trump's unpredictable policies [5][7]. Group 2: Gold Market Dynamics - International gold prices have reached historical highs, with COMEX gold futures surpassing $3000 per ounce and spot gold prices exceeding $2989 per ounce [1][9]. - The rise in gold prices is attributed to softening US economic data, which has increased expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, alongside a decline in the US dollar index and bond yields [11][12]. - Central banks globally are continuing to increase their gold reserves, with significant purchases reported, indicating a sustained demand for gold as a strategic asset amid geopolitical uncertainties [14].

以下文章来源于叶檀财经 ，作者半间云 但是，我们必须看到，现在的特朗普跟第一任任期不同，他显得更加坚定而疯狂，他的背后站着一支庞大 的科技大佬队伍，以及一支传统的财阀团队。 曾经被硅谷蔑视的人，现在却成为硅谷选中的那个。 一、市场陷入剧烈的特朗普波动， 可能持续阴跌 近期，全球市场陷入了特朗普波动，高高在上的美国股市有下跌趋势。 截至2025年3月7日的一周，道琼斯指数下跌了2.9%，是2025年以来表现最差的一周。2024年12月道琼斯指 数曾经到达52周最高点45073.63，而本周收盘价42801.72，较高点下跌了2272.91，下挫5.04%. 标普500指数较本轮高位下跌约6.7%，超越了去年12月的跌幅，纳斯达克指数较本轮高位下跌约9.4%，接近 10%回调区域的门槛。现在，大家密切关注着指数会不会下跌到10%的心理区域。 大型科技股未能幸免，支撑美股信念的科技七巨头Alphabet、亚马逊、苹果、Meta、微软、英伟达和特斯拉 短短三周内下跌超过12%，从2月1日到3月5日，特斯拉股价跌幅超过31%，市值蒸发超4000亿美元，英伟达 两个月内市值蒸发近1万亿美元。 叶檀财经 . 过去的财经女侠 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has experienced a significant pullback, particularly in the ChiNext index, which fell over 3% amid a broader global market decline, raising questions about future market direction and investment opportunities [2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market adjusted in response to a collective downturn in global markets, with over 4,700 stocks declining [2]. - The trading volume in the two markets decreased to 1.8 trillion, with technology and brokerage sectors leading the declines, while automotive, consumer, and healthcare sectors also weakened [3][4]. Group 2: Reasons for Decline - The primary reasons for the A-share decline include a pullback in the global technology sector and unexpected negative news [5]. - The overnight drop in U.S. markets, particularly with Nvidia's revenue growth slowing down, contributed to negative sentiment across Asia-Pacific markets, including Japan, Hong Kong, and A-shares [5][6]. - The U.S. threat to impose additional tariffs on Chinese imports has also heightened market concerns, with China's Ministry of Commerce expressing strong opposition [7]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Despite short-term market volatility, structural opportunities remain, and investors are advised to adjust strategies based on risk tolerance while seeking quality assets at lower prices [8]. - The upcoming National People's Congress (NPC) is expected to influence market trends, with historical data suggesting positive performance before the meetings and potential adjustments during the sessions [12][14]. Group 4: Sector Opportunities - Three main sectors are anticipated to benefit from potential policy support during the NPC: technology growth (focusing on AI and robotics), cyclical sectors (including infrastructure and real estate), and state-owned enterprise reforms [14][15][16]. - Historical analysis indicates that the market often experiences a rally leading up to the NPC, with a focus on small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks [13].