证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 07 月 31 日 投资要点 分析师：孟之绪 执业编号：S0300524080001 电话： 邮箱：mengzhixu@ykzq.com 投资策略研究 粤开市场日报-20250731 今日关注 今日主要指数涨跌幅：沪指涨跌幅为-1.18%，深证成指涨跌幅为-1.73%， 创业板指涨跌幅为-1.66%。 申万一级行业表现：计算机、通信、综合在行业涨跌幅榜居前；煤炭、 非银金融、电力设备在行业涨跌幅榜居后。 概念板块表现：总体来看，连板、打板、抗癌概念表现相对较好；稀有 金属、煤炭开采、保险概念表现相对较差。 风险提示 股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 请务必阅读最后特别声明与免责条款 www.ykzq.com 1 / 5 | 图表 1： | | --- | | 今日主要指数涨跌幅（%）及概念板块表现 3 | 策略点评 | 一、市场回顾 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 二、风险提示 | 3 | 一、市场回顾 图表1：今日主要指数涨跌幅（%）及概念板块表现 二、风险提示 股市有风险，投资需谨慎 请务必阅读最后特别声明与免责条款 www.ykzq.com 3 / 5 资料 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent "water buffalo" market characteristics, where price increases are driven by capital, sentiment, and valuation rather than improvements in corporate earnings [4]. Group 1: Recent Market Trends - Recent market trends show significant net inflows from institutional investors [6]. - Retail investors are also accelerating their inflows as market profitability accumulates [7]. - Conservative funds may be passively reallocating due to the rising market heat and the strengthening narrative against "involution" [8]. Group 2: Market Duration and Sustainability - Historical data indicates that "water buffalo" markets, characterized by a divergence between fundamentals and liquidity, typically last no more than four months [9]. - The potential for the current market to evolve into a longer-lasting bull market depends on subsequent improvements in fundamentals [9]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Two categories of low-valued stocks to consider include: 1. Low attention stocks that may rebound due to "anti-involution" narratives, such as leaders in polyurethane, LED, polyester, electronic components, titanium dioxide, synthetic resin, semiconductor precursors, and aviation [11]. 2. Other low-valued cyclical stocks, including leaders in aerial work platforms, rubber, oilfield services, paper packaging, containers, and the lithium battery supply chain [11]. Group 4: Sector Performance and Strategy - The technology sector, particularly the STAR Market, is expected to see a rebound following the World Artificial Intelligence Conference [12]. - After breaking the 3600-point mark, the recommended strategy includes increasing allocations to Hang Seng Technology and STAR Market, while continuing to rotate among sectors like non-ferrous metals, communications, innovative pharmaceuticals, military, and gaming [13]. Group 5: Market Health and Earnings - A healthy bull market should primarily be driven by earnings growth rather than mere valuation increases, as indicated by the "water buffalo" market being the least sustainable [15]. - Data from July 25 shows that major indices have seen significant price increases, with the majority of these gains driven by valuation rather than earnings [16]. - The indices that represent new productive forces, such as Hang Seng Technology and China Internet, show healthier and more sustainable growth patterns [17]. Group 6: Economic Indicators - Recent economic indicators, including social financing data and industrial profits, suggest potential economic improvement, but the sustainability of this recovery remains to be observed [18].

Market Overview - The market experienced a day of volatility with all three major indices falling over 1%, specifically the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.18%, the Shenzhen Component down 1.73%, and the ChiNext down 1.66% [1]. Stock Performance - The market saw a significant number of stocks declining, with over 4,200 stocks falling [2]. - In terms of sector performance, the innovative drug concept showed strength with stocks like Nanxin Pharmaceutical hitting the daily limit [3]. - AI applications remained active against the trend, with stocks such as Yidian Tianxia also reaching the daily limit [3]. - AI hardware stocks exhibited mixed results, but the liquid cooling server concept was strong, with companies like Invec hitting the daily limit [3]. Declining Sectors - Sectors such as steel and non-ferrous metals, which are cyclical, collectively weakened, with Anyang Steel dropping over 7% [4]. - The financial sector was sluggish throughout the day, with Zhongyin Securities falling over 5% [4]. Trading Volume - The total trading volume for the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.94 trillion yuan, an increase of 91.7 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [4]. Notable Stocks - New Yisheng had a trading volume of over 14.6 billion yuan, leading the market, while other notable stocks included Zhongji Xuchuang and Ningde Times with significant trading volumes as well [4].

7月31日，《每日经济新闻》记者发现，根据全国统一规范电子税务局（安徽）网站公告，华安证券欠企业所得税2248.89万元，欠税公告日期为7月25日。 每经记者｜王砚丹 每经编辑｜叶峰 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities is progressing with the acquisition of Wanhe Securities, making adjustments to the issuance price and number of shares in the restructuring report, indicating a strategic move in the brokerage industry [1][2]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The issuance price for the acquisition has been adjusted from 8.6 yuan/share to 8.25 yuan/share, with the number of shares increasing from 604 million to 629 million [1][2]. - The transaction price for 96.08% of Wanhe Securities is set at 5.192 billion yuan [1][3]. - The assessment of Wanhe Securities' 100% equity value as of November 30, 2024, is 5.4589 billion yuan, showing no impairment compared to the previous assessment [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Wanhe Securities reported a revenue of 514 million yuan for 2024, up from 499 million yuan in 2023, and a net profit of 64.32 million yuan, an increase from 58.75 million yuan [5]. - Guosen Securities achieved a revenue of 20.167 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.46%, with a net profit of 8.217 billion yuan, up 27.84% [5]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - The acquisition is expected to enhance Guosen Securities' regional layout, leveraging Wanhe Securities' presence in key development areas such as the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and the Yangtze River Delta [6]. - This move is anticipated to improve the company's competitiveness and ability to serve national development strategies [6]. Group 4: Board Adjustments - Guosen Securities announced changes in its board, with new appointments aimed at optimizing governance structure during this critical transaction phase [7][8]. - The new board members bring significant financial and management experience, which is expected to positively influence the company's operations and decision-making [8]. Group 5: Research Department Developments - The company is set to enhance its research capabilities by appointing a prominent figure from Haitong Securities as the new head of its research department [9]. - The research department has faced challenges, with a decline in fund distribution commission income, indicating the need for strategic improvements [9].

Key Insights - The July Politburo meeting emphasized the need to consolidate the economic recovery while addressing prominent issues such as boosting consumption and breaking the cycle of internal competition, which is crucial for promoting domestic and international dual circulation [2][3] - The meeting highlighted the importance of accelerating the cultivation of emerging pillar industries and advancing high-quality urban renewal, avoiding the old path of debt-driven growth [2][3] - The upcoming 14th Central Committee meeting in October will focus on drafting the 15th Five-Year Plan, which is seen as pivotal for achieving the long-term goal of socialist modernization [2][11] Macroeconomic Analysis - The meeting acknowledged the strong performance of the economy in the first half of the year, with GDP growth reaching 5.3%, and emphasized the need for a bottom-line thinking approach to safeguard employment and livelihoods [3][4] - The macroeconomic policy is set to maintain continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight, indicating that supportive policies will continue to be implemented [13][20] - The focus on fiscal policy will be on timely and effective implementation, with an emphasis on increasing the efficiency of fund usage and accelerating the issuance of government bonds [4][19] Real Estate Sector - The importance of urban renewal was reiterated, with a focus on high-quality implementation in line with the Central Urban Work Conference's spirit [26][28] - The transition of urbanization from rapid growth to stable development is expected to enhance the role of urban renewal as a key driver for improving living conditions and urban quality [27][28] - The potential for city renovation projects, particularly in urban villages and dilapidated housing, is anticipated to stimulate housing demand and improve the overall real estate market [27][28] Investment Strategy - The A-share market is expected to experience a gradual rise amid increasing volatility, driven by favorable policies, moderate economic recovery, and the upcoming mid-year performance reports [31][32] - Investment recommendations include focusing on sectors such as technology, consumption, and cyclical stocks, particularly those with strong value propositions [31][32] - The emphasis on new quality productivity and the potential for structural reforms in the economy are seen as key areas for investment opportunities [31][32]

格隆汇7月31日｜A股主要指数尾盘跌幅进一步扩大，深证成指尾盘跌超2%，创业板指跌约1.8%，沪指 现跌1.4%。尾盘大金融板块跌势扩大，证券、保险方向领跌。 (责任编辑：宋政 HN002) 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

欧洲主要股指开盘基本上涨，德国DAX30指数涨0.38%，英国富时100指数跌0.1%，法国CAC40指数涨 0.26%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.41%。 ...

【导读】7月30日股票ETF资金净流入75亿元 Wind数据显示，资金净流入前20大股票ETF中，港股相关ETF有10只，涉及证券、互联网、非银、科技、创新药、金融等方向；宽基方面，创业板相关指 数ETF有2只，中证A500ETF有1只。 值得一提的是，虽然港股近日迎来震荡调整，资金仍持续流入港股相关ETF。7月以来，流向港股证券、互联网、科技等方向的资金达到300亿元。 头部基金公司中，截至7月30日，易方达基金旗下ETF最新规模为6938.7亿元，昨日资金净流入21.7亿元。其中，创业板ETF净流入15.42亿元，香港证券 ETF净流入9.76亿元，恒生科技ETF易方达净流入3.46亿元，恒生创新药ETF净流入0.8亿元，军工ETF易方达净流入0.7亿元，机器人ETF易方达净流入0.6 亿元。 7月30日，A股市场持续震荡，三大指数涨跌互现，其中，创业板指跌幅超过1.5%。 股票ETF当日资金净流入75亿元，除了创业板方面获得显著资金净流入，港股相关ETF净流入资金也居前，涵盖科技、金融、医药、互联网等方向；沪深 300、中证500、中证A500等宽基ETF以及医药、半导体等行业ETF"失血"靠前。 值得 ...

策略研究 定调偏积极，市场有望在震荡整固中夯实上行 基础 ——7 月中央政治局会议点评 | | | | | | 分析师：费小平（SAC | 执业证书编号：S0340518010002） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 | 年 | 7 | 月 | 日 31 | 电话：0769-22111089 | 邮箱：fxp@dgzq.com.cn | | | | | | | 分析师：尹炜祺（SAC | 执业证书编号：S0340522120001） | | | | | | | 电话：0769-22118627 | 邮箱：yinweiqi@dgzq.com.cn | 事件： 中共中央政治局 7 月 30 日召开会议，决定今年 10 月在北京召开中国共产党第二十届中央委员会 第四次全体会议，主要议程是，中共中央政治局向中央委员会报告工作，研究关于制定国民经济和社 会发展第十五个五年规划的建议。会议分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。 点评： ◼ 1、2025年上半年经济增速达5.3%，后续宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力 2025年上半年经济增速达5.3 ...