1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various asset classes and industries. It maintains the view of more volatility and a preference for safe - haven assets overseas, and a structural market in China. It suggests strategic allocation of gold and non - US dollar assets. Overseas, the US inflation expectation structure is stable with short - term fundamental resilience, while in China, the growth - stabilizing policies maintain their stance, and the export resilience and tariff relaxation support the Q2 economic growth. Different industries and asset classes are expected to show different trends, mostly in a state of oscillation [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: Tariff and US debt concerns are the main drivers of market volatility in May. The EU has requested an extension of the tariff negotiation deadline to July 9, which was approved by President Trump. The US House of Representatives passed a large - scale tax - cut and spending bill, increasing concerns about US debt. US retail sales in April increased slightly by 0.1%, and the May manufacturing and service PMIs were better than expected [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: April's domestic economic data showed resilience, and policy expectations were generally stable. The China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 negotiation was completed. The 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPRs were both cut by 10BP in May, and major state - owned banks lowered deposit rates. Investment and consumption growth in April slightly slowed down but remained resilient. Fixed - asset investment from January to April increased by 4.0% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 5.1% year - on - year in April [6]. - **Asset View**: In the large - scale asset category, the report maintains the view of more volatility and a preference for safe - haven assets overseas and a structural market in China. It suggests strategic allocation of gold and non - US dollar assets. In the overseas market, the US inflation expectation structure is stable, and the short - term fundamentals are resilient. In the Chinese market, the growth - stabilizing policies maintain their stance, and the export resilience and tariff relaxation support the Q2 economic growth. Bonds have allocation value after the capital pressure eases, and stocks and commodities are expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. 3.2 View Highlights Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The proportion of small - cap and micro - cap trading volume shows a downward trend, and the stock index discount is converging, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: The short - term market sentiment is positive, and attention should be paid to the option market liquidity, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market may continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to changes in the capital market and policy expectations, with an expected oscillation [7]. Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The progress of China - US negotiations exceeded expectations, and precious metals continued to adjust in the short term. Attention should be paid to Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy, with an expected oscillation [7]. Shipping - **Container Shipping on the European Route**: Attention should be paid to the game between the peak - season expectation and the implementation of price increases. The short - term trend is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to tariff policies and shipping company pricing strategies [7]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: Demand continues to weaken, and both futures and spot prices are falling. Attention should be paid to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The arrival of shipments has been continuously low, and port inventories have decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipments, domestic molten iron production, weather factors, and port inventory changes, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Coke**: The second - round price cut has started, and coke enterprises are having difficulty in shipping. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The pressure to reduce inventory is increasing, and market sentiment is low. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and copper prices oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, the Fed's less - dovish than expected stance, and weaker - than - expected domestic demand recovery, with an expected oscillation and increase [7]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The event of revoking mining licenses has not been finalized, and the aluminum oxide market oscillates at a high level. Attention should be paid to the failure of ore production to resume as expected, the over - expected resumption of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme market trends, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The expectation of production increase is strengthened, and oil prices continue to face pressure. Attention should be paid to OPEC + production policies, the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and the US sanctions on Iran, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **LPG**: Demand continues to weaken, and LPG maintains a weak oscillation. Attention should be paid to the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Concerns about tariffs have subsided, and the over - expected scale of EG maintenance has boosted futures prices. Attention should be paid to the terminal demand for ethylene glycol, with an expected oscillation and increase [9]. Agriculture - **Livestock and Poultry**: The spot price of pigs stopped falling before the festival, but the futures market remained weak. Attention should be paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices oscillate slightly. Attention should be paid to demand and production, with an expected oscillation [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - The market is affected by various factors, leading to different trends in different varieties. For example, the stock index shows a pattern of stable lower - support and high upper - breakthrough pressure; the bond market is in a narrow - range shock waiting for fundamental guidance; precious metals are affected by multiple factors and show a shock or upward - potential trend; and different industrial and agricultural products have their own supply - demand and price trends [2]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - IF2506, IH2506, IC2506, IM2506: The index has stable lower support and high upper - breakthrough pressure. TMT is warming up, and A - shares are in a shrinking shock. It is recommended to sell put options near the previous low support level to earn the premium [2]. Bond Futures - T2506, TF2506, TS2506, TL2506: In the short - term information window period, the bond futures are in a narrow - range shock. The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate in the range of 1.65% - 1.7%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate in the range of 1.85% - 1.95%. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to high - frequency economic data and capital - market dynamics [2]. Precious Metals - AU2508, AG2508: Gold may break through $3400 (795 yuan) or maintain a shock trend. Silver follows gold's fluctuations, and the resistance near the previous high of $33.5 (8300 yuan) is strengthened [2]. Shipping Index - EC2508 (European Line): Airlines are reducing prices, and the main contract is falling. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [2]. Steel - RB2510: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. It is recommended to pay attention to the long - hot - rolled - coil and short - coke and long - hot - rolled - coil and short - coking - coal arbitrage operations [2]. Iron Ore - I2509: It is in a range - bound shock, with the range referring to 700 - 745 [2]. Coke - J2509: Mainstream steel mills are initiating the second round of coke price cuts, which are expected to be implemented on the 28th. Coke prices may still be cut. It is recommended to consider long - hot - rolled - coil and short - coke operations [2]. Coking Coal - JM2509: The market auction is cold, coal mine production and inventory are at high levels, and prices are still likely to fall. It is recommended to consider long - hot - rolled - coil and short - coking - coal operations [2]. Silicon Iron - SF507: Supply - demand is marginally improving, and costs are moving down. It is in a range - bound shock, with the range referring to 5500 - 5800. It is recommended to try shorting at high levels, with the upper pressure referring to around 5900 [2]. Copper - CU2507: There are sudden disturbances in the copper mine supply. Pay attention to the sustainability of the "strong reality". The main contract pays attention to the pressure level of 78000 - 79000 [2]. Zinc - ZN2507: Social inventory is decreasing again, and the fundamentals change little. The market is in a shock [2]. Nickel - NI2506: The market is in a narrow - range shock, with cost support and supply - demand contradictions still existing. The main contract refers to 122000 - 128000 [2]. Stainless Steel - SS2507: The main contract refers to 12600 - 13200. It is recommended to try shorting lightly in the range of 265000 - 270000 [2]. Tin - SN2506: In the medium - to - long - term, it is recommended to adopt a band - trading strategy. In the short - term, observe opportunities for shorting on rebounds [2]. Crude Oil - SC2508: The macro - situation and supply - increase expectations are in a stalemate. The market is in a shock, waiting for the implementation of OPEC's production - increase policy. The WTI fluctuates in the range of [59, 69], Brent in [61, 71], and SC in [440, 500]. It is recommended to pay attention to the INE monthly - spread rebound opportunities [2]. Urea - UR2509: Agricultural demand needs time, and under high - supply pressure, the market is looking for a bottom in a shock. The main - contract fluctuation is adjusted to around [1800, 1900] [2]. PX - PX2509: Supply - demand is marginally weakening, and oil - price support is limited. PX is under short - term pressure. Pay attention to the support at 6500 - 6600, try a light - position reverse - spread operation for PX9 - 1, and shrink the PX - SC spread when it is high [2]. PTA - TA2509: Supply - demand is marginally weakening, and oil - price support is limited. PTA is under short - term pressure. Pay attention to the support near 4600 and treat TA9 - 1 as a reverse - spread operation [2]. Short - Fiber - PF2507: The short - term driving force is weak, and the price follows the raw materials. The unilateral operation is the same as PTA, and it is mainly to expand the processing fee on the PF disk at a low level [2]. Bottle Chip - PR2507: Supply and demand are both increasing, and short - term contradictions are not prominent. The absolute price follows the cost. The unilateral operation is the same as PTA. The main - contract processing fee on the PR disk is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 550 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the opportunity to expand at the lower edge of the range [2]. Ethanol - EG2509: Supply and demand are both decreasing, but MEG has a large destocking in the near - month. Pay attention to the positive - spread opportunity. Unilaterally wait and see, and go for a positive - spread operation for EG9 - 1 when the price is low [2]. Styrene - EB2507: Inventory has stopped decreasing and started to accumulate, and supply - demand is under pressure. The market is in a weak shock. It is medium - term bearish, with a resistance of 7800 for the near - month. Pay attention to the opportunity for the EB - BZ spread to widen [2]. Caustic Soda - 60952HB: The increase in the alumina purchase price drives the near - month price. Pay attention to the warehouse receipts. Unilaterally wait and see, and maintain a positive - spread operation for the near - month [2]. PVC - V2509: The medium - to - long - term contradiction still exists, and the near - end spot is weak. The market has turned down again. It is recommended to short on the medium - to - long - term on rallies, with the resistance level for 09 at around 5100 [2]. Synthetic Rubber - BR2507: The supply - demand pattern of loose remains unchanged, and BR has fallen sharply. Hold short positions [2]. LLDPE - L2509: The spot price follows the disk decline, and the transaction has deteriorated significantly. The market is in a shock [2]. PP - PP2509: Supply and demand are both weak. Pay attention to the subsequent marginal - device restart situation. The market is in a weak shock [2]. Methanol - MA2509: The inventory inflection point has appeared, and the port and inland markets are weakening. The market is in a weak shock [2]. Grains and Oils - M2509: The pressure near 2950 is increasing [2]. - RM509: CBOT is closed, and the market is in a shock [2]. - LH2509: At the end of the month, the volume is shrinking, and downstream Dragon Boat Festival stocking is increasing. The futures and spot prices are rebounding slightly. Pay attention to the support at 13500 [2]. - C2507: The market fluctuates with the shipment rhythm. It fluctuates around 2320 in the short - term [2]. - P2509/Y25: Palm oil may run around 8000 [2]. - SR2509: The overseas supply outlook is relatively loose. Unilaterally wait and see or short on rebounds [2]. - CF2509: The downstream market remains weak. Short on rebounds [2]. - JD2507: The spot price may weaken again. Short on rebounds for the 07 contract [2]. - AP2510: The trading is market - based. The main contract runs around 7500 [2]. - CJ2509: The fundamentals change little, and red dates continue to fluctuate. It runs around 9000 in the short - term [2]. - PK2510: The market price fluctuates. The main contract runs around 8200 [2]. Special Commodities - SA2509: There are many maintenance expectations from May to June. Consider positive - spread participation in the monthly spread. Short on rebounds and go for a positive - spread operation for the 7 - 9 monthly spread [2]. - FG2509: The market sentiment is pessimistic. Pay attention to the support at the 1000 - point level [2]. - RU2509: The fundamentals are weak, and the rubber price is falling. Hold the previous short positions and pay attention to the performance at the 14000 - line [2]. - Si2507: The industrial - silicon futures are increasing positions and falling under the expectation of supply increase. The fundamentals are still bearish [2]. New - Energy Commodities - PS2507: The raw - material price is falling, and the supply is expected to increase. The polysilicon futures are increasing positions and falling, and the price is still under pressure [2]. - LC2507: The market has rebounded, but the fundamental logic has not reversed. The main contract runs in the range of 58,000 - 63,000 [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View There is no explicit core view presented in the given content. The report mainly provides detailed data on the synthetic rubber market, including prices, trading volumes, positions, and profit margins for different types of synthetic rubber and related products. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog a. BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Price and Market Data**: The closing price of the main contract on May 26 was 11,545, a daily decrease of 352 and a weekly decrease (not fully shown). The market prices in Shandong, Zhejiang, and the factory - price in Qilu all increased compared to previous dates. For example, the Shandong market price reached 13,650 on May 26, with a daily increase of 1,450 and a weekly increase of 1,150 [3]. - **Position and Volume**: The main contract's open interest on May 26 was 52,885, a daily increase of 37,821 and a weekly increase of 33,356. The trading volume was 175,284, a daily increase of 77,671 and a weekly increase of 51,063 [3]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis (cis - BR) was - 135 on May 26, with a daily decrease of 435 and a weekly decrease of 295. The month - spread (06 - 07) was - 65, with a daily increase of 50 and a weekly increase of 15 [3]. - **Profit Margins**: The spot processing profit was 179 on May 26, a daily increase of 1,093 and a weekly increase of 1,329. The import profit was - 1,214, a daily decrease of 796 and a weekly decrease of 1,381 [3]. b. BD (Butadiene) - **Price and Market Data**: The market prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, and the factory - price in Yangzi all showed certain changes. For example, the Shandong market price on May 26 was 11,050, a daily increase of 350 and a weekly decrease of 175 [3]. - **Profit Margins**: The carbon - four extraction profit was 3,459 on May 26, a daily decrease of 16 and a weekly decrease of 600. The butene oxidation dehydrogenation profit was 816, a daily decrease of 840 [3]. c. Downstream Products - **Profit Margins**: The production profits of downstream products such as ABS, SBS, and others also changed. For example, the ABS production profit on May 26 was 418, a daily increase of 380 and a weekly increase of 805 [3]. d. Variety Spreads - **Inter - Variety Spreads**: The spreads between different varieties, such as RU - BR, NR - BR, and Thai mixed - cis, all showed changes. For example, the RU - BR spread on May 26 was 3,340, a daily increase of 420 and a weekly increase of 575 [3]. - **Intra - Variety Spreads**: The spreads within the same variety, such as the cis - standard non - standard price spread and the styrene - butadiene 1502 - 1712 spread, also changed. For example, the styrene - butadiene 1502 - 1712 spread on May 26 was 1,700, a significant change compared to previous dates [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recent raw material butadiene prices have been rising due to strong demand and unexpected shutdowns of some devices, significantly increasing the production cost of butadiene rubber. Although most enterprises' production scheduling has gradually stabilized and improved compared to last week, individual enterprises have slightly reduced production to control inventory growth. Most private butadiene rubber plants in North China have reduced their loads to varying degrees, but the downstream's wait - and - see attitude has led to continuous shipment pressure and poor overall transaction follow - up. Last week, the inventories of production enterprises and sample trading enterprises increased. It is expected that the inventory of trading enterprises will decrease in the short term. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises continued to increase last week, but the production scheduling adjustment of individual enterprises limited the increase in overall capacity utilization, and a few enterprises have maintenance plans at the end of the month, which may drag down the overall capacity utilization. The br2507 contract should pay short - term attention to the support around 11,500, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 11,545 yuan/ton, a decrease of 205 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 52,885, a decrease of 17,086; the 6 - 7 spread of synthetic rubber is - 65 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; the total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in warehouses is 6,750 tons, a decrease of 40 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 12,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 12,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 12,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton; from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 12,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is 355 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil is 64.78 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.34 US dollars/barrel; naphtha CFR Japan is 560.38 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton; Northeast Asian ethylene price is 780 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,190 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 US dollars/ton; WTI crude oil is 61.53 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.33 US dollars/barrel; the mainstream price of butadiene in Shandong market is 10,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 147,800 tons, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 67.73%, a decrease of 0.29 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene is 28,200 tons, a decrease of 2,670 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 47.28%, unchanged. The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 128,300 tons, an increase of 16,500 tons; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber is 75.57%, a decrease of 3.63 percentage points; the production profit of butadiene rubber is - 615 yuan/ton, an increase of 618 yuan/ton; the social inventory of butadiene rubber is 32,800 tons, an increase of 600 tons; the manufacturer's inventory of butadiene rubber is 27,000 tons, an increase of 350 tons; the trader's inventory of butadiene rubber is 5,800 tons, an increase of 330 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 78.22%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 64.96%, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.69 million pieces, an increase of 3.09 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 59.66 million pieces, an increase of 11.56 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 42.86 days, an increase of 0.09 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 47 days, an increase of 1.22 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of May 22, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China is 32,800 tons, an increase of 700 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.12%. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 73.74%, a month - on - month increase of 2.53 percentage points, a year - on - year decrease of 6.35 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises is 62.09%, a month - on - month increase of 2.21 percentage points, a year - on - year decrease of 4.11 percentage points [2] 3.6 Key Points to Watch - There is no news today [2]

1. Report Overview - Report Title: Yong'an Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [2] - Report Date: May 26, 2025 [2] 2. Key Data Summary 2.1 BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Futures Market** - Main contract closing price on May 23 was 11,750, a daily decrease of 320 and a weekly decrease of 410 [3] - Main contract trading volume on May 23 was 101,603, a daily increase of 6,801 and a weekly decrease of 32,636 [3] - Main contract open interest on April 25 was 42,499 [3] - Warehouse receipt quantity on May 23 was 10,460, a daily increase of 170 and a weekly decrease of 880 [3] - Virtual - to - physical ratio on May 23 was 33.45, a daily increase of 25 and a weekly increase of 24 [3] - **Basis and Spread** - Basis (Cis - BR) on May 23 was - 135, a daily decrease of 365 and a weekly decrease of 375 [3] - Basis (Styrene - butadiene - BR) on May 23 was 265, a daily decrease of 365 and a weekly decrease of 475 [3] - Month - to - month spread (06 - 07) on May 23 was - 85, a daily decrease of 5 and a weekly decrease of 10 [3] - Month - to - month spread (07 - 08) on May 23 was 150, a daily decrease of 10 and a weekly decrease of 5 [3] - **Spot Market** - Shandong market price on May 23 was 13,650, a daily increase of 1,250 and a weekly increase of 1,150 [3] - Zhejiang Chuanhua market price on May 23 was 13,500, a daily increase of 1,200 and a weekly increase of 1,100 [3] - Qilu ex - factory price on May 23 was 13,700, a daily increase of 1,000 and a weekly increase of 1,000 [3] - CFR Northeast Asia on May 23 was 1,750, a daily increase of 250 and a weekly increase of 300 [3] - CFR Southeast Asia on May 23 was 2,000, a daily increase of 213 and a weekly increase of 225 [3] - FOB China on May 23 was 1,750, a daily increase of 225 and a weekly increase of 225 [3] - **Processing and Trade** - Spot processing profit on May 23 was 179, a daily increase of 1,199 and a weekly increase of 1,456 [3] - Futures processing profit on May 23 was 164, a daily increase of 1,514 and a weekly increase of 1,781 [3] - Import profit on May 23 was - 1,214, a daily decrease of 866 and a weekly decrease of 1,392 [3] - Export profit on May 23 was 1,981, a daily increase of 519 and a weekly increase of 715 [3] 2.2 BD (Butadiene) - **Price** - Shandong market price on May 23 was 11,050, a daily increase of 50 and a weekly decrease of 300 [3] - Jiangsu market price on May 23 was 11,000, a daily increase of 450 and a weekly increase of 150 [3] - Yangzi ex - factory price on May 23 was 11,100, a daily increase of 400 and a weekly increase of 0 [3] - CFR China on May 23 was 11,082, a daily increase of 1,133 and a weekly increase of 963 [3] - **Processing and Trade** - C4 extraction profit on May 23 was 3,459, a daily increase of 92 and a weekly decrease of 546 [3] - Butylene oxidative dehydrogenation profit on May 23 was 816, a daily decrease of 990 and a weekly decrease of 1,220 [3] - Import profit on May 23 was - 139, a daily decrease of 749 and a weekly decrease of 901 [3] - Export profit on May 23 was - 576, a daily increase of 594 and a weekly increase of 868 [3] 2.3 Downstream Profits - **Production Profits** - Cis - butadiene production profit on May 23 was 179, a daily increase of 1,199 and a weekly increase of 1,456 [3] - Styrene - butadiene production profit on May 23 was 1,075, a daily increase of 650 and a weekly increase of 1,000 [3] - ABS production profit on May 23 was 418, a daily increase of 401 and a weekly increase of 837 [3] - SBS production profit (791 - H) on May 23 was 330, a daily decrease of 280 and a weekly increase of 200 [3] 2.4 Price Spreads - **Inter - product Spreads** - RU - BR on May 23 was 3,340, a daily increase of 470 [3] - NR - BR on May 23 was 1,085, a daily increase of 240 and a weekly increase of 515 [3] - Thai mixed - cis - butadiene on May 23 was 3,000, a daily increase of 800 and a weekly increase of 900 [3] - 3L - styrene - butadiene on May 23 was 3,450, a daily increase of 350 and a weekly increase of 600 [3] - **Intra - product Spreads** - Cis - butadiene standard - non - standard price spread on May 23 was 250, a daily increase of 50 and a weekly increase of 30 [3] - Styrene - butadiene 1502 - 1712 on May 23 was 1,700, a daily increase of 700 and a weekly increase of 700 [3]

Report Overview - Report Name: Yong'an Synthetic Rubber Morning Report - Research Team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team - Date: May 23, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core View - No clear core view is given in the provided content. The report mainly presents a large amount of data on synthetic rubber, including prices, trading volumes, and profit margins. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 BR (Butadiene Rubber) 3.1.1 Price and Trading Volume - The closing price of the BR main contract on May 22 was 11,895, a daily decrease of 345 and a weekly decrease of 362 compared to May 15 [3]. - The open interest of the BR main contract on May 22 was 13,554, a daily decrease of 5,975 and a weekly decrease of 9,229 [3]. - The trading volume of the BR main contract on May 22 was 74,911, a daily decrease of 49,310 and a weekly decrease of 51,953 [3]. 3.1.2 Basis and Spread - The basis of cis - butadiene rubber (cis - BR) on May 22 was - 135, a daily decrease of 295 and a weekly decrease of 325 [3]. - The basis of styrene - butadiene rubber (SBR - BR) on May 22 was 265, a daily decrease of 295 and a weekly decrease of 375 [3]. - The spread between contracts 06 - 07 on May 22 was - 80, a daily decrease of 135 and a weekly decrease of 40 [3]. - The spread between contracts 07 - 08 on May 22 was 130, a daily decrease of 35 and a weekly decrease of 15 [3]. 3.1.3 Market Price - The market price of BR in Shandong on May 22 was 13,650, a daily increase of 1,150 and a weekly increase of 1,100 [3]. - The market price of BR in Zhejiang Chuanhua on May 22 was 13,500, a daily increase of 1,100 and a weekly increase of 1,050 [3]. - The ex - factory price of BR at Qilu on May 22 was 13,700, a daily increase of 1,000 and a weekly increase of 1,000 [3]. 3.1.4 Processing and Profit - The spot processing profit of BR on May 22 was 179, a daily increase of 1,329 and a weekly increase of 1,457 [3]. - The on - screen processing profit of BR on May 22 was 164, a daily increase of 1,574 and a weekly increase of 1,732 [3]. - The import profit of BR on May 22 was - 1,214, a daily decrease of 973 and a weekly decrease of 1,395 [3]. - The export profit of BR on May 22 was 1,981, a daily increase of 613 and a weekly increase of 718 [3]. 3.2 BD (Butadiene) 3.2.1 Market Price - The market price of BD in Shandong on May 22 was 11,050, a daily decrease of 175 and a weekly decrease of 350 [3]. - The market price of BD in Jiangsu on May 22 was 11,100, a daily increase of 250 [3]. - The ex - factory price of BD at Yangzi on May 22 was 11,100, a daily increase of 200 and a weekly increase of 0 [3]. - The CFR China price of BD on May 22 was 11,082, a daily increase of 1,133 and a weekly increase of 2,208 [3]. 3.2.2 Processing and Profit - The carbon - four extraction profit of BD on May 22 was 3,459, a daily decrease of 165 and a weekly decrease of 400 [3]. - The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit of BD on May 22 was 816, a daily decrease of 1,120 and a weekly decrease of 1,270 [3]. - The import profit of BD on May 22 was - 139, a daily decrease of 955 and a weekly decrease of 2,175 [3]. - The export profit of BD on May 22 was - 576, a daily increase of 773 and a weekly increase of 1,886 [3]. 3.3 Downstream Products 3.3.1 Production Profit - The production profit of ABS on May 22 was 418, a daily increase of 430 and a weekly increase of 872 [3]. - The production profit of SBS (791 - H) on May 22 was 330, a daily decrease of 140 and a weekly increase of 500 [3]. - The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber on May 22 was 179, a daily increase of 1,329 and a weekly increase of 1,457 [3]. - The production profit of styrene - butadiene rubber on May 22 was 1,075, a daily increase of 850 and a weekly increase of 1,000 [3]. 3.4 Variety Spreads 3.4.1 Inter - Variety Spreads - The spread between RU - BR on May 22 was 3,340, a daily increase of 575 and a weekly increase of 510 [3]. - The spread between NR - BR on May 22 was 1,085, a daily increase of 440 and a weekly increase of 455 [3]. - The spread between Thai mixed - cis - butadiene rubber on May 22 was 3,000, a daily increase of 850 and a weekly increase of 750 [3]. - The spread between 3L - styrene - butadiene rubber on May 22 was 3,450, a daily increase of 400 and a weekly increase of 400 [3]. 3.4.2 Intra - Variety Spreads - The spread between standard and non - standard cis - butadiene rubber on May 22 was 250, a daily increase of 30 and a weekly increase of 80 [3]. - The spread between SBR 1502 - 1712 on May 22 was 1,700, a daily increase of 800 and a weekly increase of 700 [3].

定状态，但个别企业为控制库存增长，排产小幅下调，限制了整体产能利用率提升幅度，少数企业将在月 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 底存检修计划，或将对整体产能利用率形成拖拽。br2507合约短线关注12000附近支撑情况，建议暂以观 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 望为主。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 合成橡胶产业日报 2025-05-22 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/ ...

Report Information - Report Name: Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] - Date: May 22, 2025 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - No clear core view presented in the given content. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 BR (Butadiene Rubber) 3.1.1 Futures Market - **Price**: The closing price of the main contract decreased from 12160 on May 16th to 11900 on May 21st, a daily change of -260 and a weekly change of -480 [3]. - **Position**: The position of the main contract decreased from 20487 on May 16th to 15064 on May 21st, a daily change of -5423 and a weekly change of -11441 [3]. - **Volume**: The trading volume of the main contract decreased from 134239 on May 16th to 97613 on May 21st, a daily change of -36626 and a weekly change of -113762 [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts decreased from 11340 on May 16th to 10490 on May 21st, a daily change of -850 and a weekly change of -990 [3]. - **Virtual - Real Ratio**: The virtual - real ratio decreased from 9.03 on May 16th to 7.18 on May 21st, a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of -4 [3]. - **Basis**: The basis (Cis - BR) changed from 240 on May 16th to -135 on May 21st, a daily change of -375 and a weekly change of -405; the basis (Styrene - Butadiene - BR) changed from 740 on May 16th to 265 on May 21st, a daily change of -475 [3]. - **Spread between Contracts**: The spread (06 - 07) changed from -75 on May 16th to -115 on May 21st, a daily change of -40; the spread (07 - 08) changed from 155 on May 16th to 120 on May 21st, a daily change of -35 [3]. 3.1.2 Spot Market - **Market Price**: The Shandong market price increased from 12500 on May 16th to 13650 on May 21st, a daily increase of 1150 and a weekly increase of 1000; the Zhejiang Chuanhua market price increased from 12400 on May 16th to 13500 on May 21st, a daily increase of 1100 and a weekly increase of 850; the Qilu ex - factory price increased from 12700 on May 16th to 13700 on May 21st, a daily increase of 1000 and a weekly increase of 1000 [3]. - **International Price**: CFR Northeast Asia increased from 1500 on May 16th to 1750 on May 21st, a daily increase of 250 and a weekly increase of 300; CFR Southeast Asia increased from 1788 on May 16th to 2000 on May 21st, a daily increase of 213 and a weekly increase of 225; FOB China increased to 1750 on May 21st [3]. - **Processing Profit**: The spot processing profit increased from -1277 on May 16th to 179 on May 21st, a daily increase of 1456 and a weekly increase of 1561; the futures processing profit increased from -1617 on May 16th to 164 on May 21st, a daily increase of 1781 and a weekly increase of 1816 [3]. - **Import and Export Profit**: The import profit changed from -229 on May 16th; the export profit increased from 1356 on May 16th to 1981 on May 21st, a daily increase of 625 and a weekly increase of 768 [3]. 3.2 BD (Butadiene) 3.2.1 Spot Market - **Market Price**: The Shandong market price decreased from 11350 on May 16th to 11050 on May 21st, a daily decrease of 300 and a weekly decrease of 550; the Jiangsu market price increased from 10850 on May 16th to 11000 on May 21st, a daily increase of 150 and a weekly decrease of 350; the Yangzi ex - factory price remained at 11100; CFR China increased from 10113 on May 16th to 11082 on May 21st, a daily increase of 970 and a weekly increase of 2370 [3]. - **Processing Profit**: The carbon - four extraction profit decreased from 3827 on May 16th to 3459 on May 21st, a daily decrease of 367 and a weekly increase of 282; the butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit decreased from 2036 on May 16th to 816 on May 21st, a daily decrease of 1220 and a weekly decrease of 1720 [3]. - **Import and Export Profit**: The import profit decreased from 762 on May 16th to -139 on May 21st, a daily decrease of 901 and a weekly decrease of 2792; the export profit increased from -1444 on May 16th to -576 on May 21st, a daily increase of 868 and a weekly increase of 2534 [3]. 3.2.2 Downstream Profit - **Production Profit**: The cis - butadiene production profit increased from -1277 on May 16th to 179 on May 21st, a daily increase of 1456 and a weekly increase of 1561; the styrene - butadiene production profit increased from 75 on May 16th to 1075 on May 21st, a daily increase of 1000 and a weekly increase of 1000; the ABS production profit increased to 418; the SBS (791 - H) production profit increased from 130 on May 16th to 330 on May 21st, a daily increase of 200 and a weekly increase of 60 [3]. 3.3 Price Spreads - **Variety - to - Variety Spread**: The RU - BR spread increased from 2745 on May 16th to 3340 on May 21st; the NR - BR spread increased from 570 on May 16th to 1085 on May 21st; the Thai Mixed - Cis spread increased from 2100 on May 16th to 3000 on May 21st; the 3L - Styrene - Butadiene spread increased from 2850 on May 16th to 3450 on May 21st [3]. - **Variety - within Spread**: The Cis standard - non - standard price spread increased from 220 on May 16th to 250 on May 21st; the Styrene - Butadiene 1502 - 1712 spread increased from 1000 on May 16th to 1700 on May 21st [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Recent raw material butadiene prices have been rising due to strong demand and unexpected shutdowns of some units, significantly increasing the production cost of cis - butadiene rubber. Driven by macro - positive news, the spot market price has strengthened, and the inventories of production and trading enterprises have decreased to varying degrees. However, some private cis - butadiene rubber plants are expected to restart, increasing supply. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased significantly last week, but most semi - steel tire enterprises have slow overall shipments and continued inventory growth, while full - steel tire capacity utilization is in a restorative growth state, with some enterprises facing increased shipment pressure, continued growth in finished product inventory, insufficient orders, and overall production scheduling lower than the pre - holiday average. The BR2507 contract should pay short - term attention to the support level around 12,000, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 11,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 170 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 15,064 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,927 yuan/ton. The synthetic rubber 6 - 7 spread is - 115 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber in the warehouse is 6,820 tons, an increase of 200 tons [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different manufacturers has decreased. The base difference of synthetic rubber is 450 yuan/ton, and the price of Brent crude oil is 70 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.16 dollars/barrel. The price of naphtha CFR Japan is 780 dollars/ton, unchanged; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,200 dollars/ton, a decrease of 20 dollars/ton. The price of WTI crude oil is 62.03 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.66 dollars/barrel, and the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 11,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 225 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 14.78 million tons/week, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate is 68.02%, a decrease of 1.33 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 30,870 tons, a decrease of 6,030 tons. The operating rate of Shandong refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 47.28%, a decrease of 1.22 percentage points. The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 128,300 tons, an increase of 16,500 tons; the capacity utilization rate is 79.2%, an increase of 4.46 percentage points. The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 1,233 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,060 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 32,200 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons; the manufacturer's inventory is 26,650 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons; the trader's inventory is 5,470 tons, a decrease of 430 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 78.33%, an increase of 19.98 percentage points; the operating rate of full - steel tires is 65.09%, an increase of 20.32 percentage points. The monthly output of full - steel tires is 13.69 million pieces, an increase of 3.09 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 59.66 million pieces, an increase of 11.56 million pieces. The inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong are 42.77 days, an increase of 0.25 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.78 days, an increase of 0.69 days [2] Industry News - As of May 15, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China decreased by 0.14 million tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 4.26%. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.21%, a month - on - month increase of 24.50 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.98 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.88%, a month - on - month increase of 18.19 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.40 percentage points. In April 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 90,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 19% compared with March and a year - on - year increase of about 9.4%. From January to April 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 355,000 vehicles, showing year - on - year parity [2]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Yong'an Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] - Report Date: May 21, 2025 [2] Group 2: BR (Butadiene Rubber) Data Futures Data - BR2505 Closing Price on May 20: 12,070, down 190 from the previous day and 135 from the previous period [3] - BR2505 Position on May 20: 16,991, down 5,792 from the previous day and 9,431 from the previous period [3] - BR2505 Trading Volume on May 20: 94,802, down 32,062 from the previous day and 124,989 from the previous period [3] - Warehouse Receipt Quantity on May 20: 10,290, down 1,390 from the previous day and 1,250 from the previous period [3] - Long - Short Ratio on May 20: 8.26, down 1 from the previous day and 3 from the previous period [3] Basis and Spread Data - Basis (Cis - BR) on May 20: - 135, down 325 from the previous day and 30 from the previous period [3] - Basis (Styrene - Butadiene - BR) on May 20: 265, down 375 from the previous day and up 20 from the previous period [3] - Month Spread (03 - 04) on May 20: 130, down 50 from the previous day [3] - Month Spread (04 - 05) on May 20: - 45, up 50 from the previous day and 125 from the previous period [3] Spot Price Data - Shandong Market Price on May 20: 13,650, up 1,100 from the previous day and 1,500 from the previous period [3] - Zhejiang Chuanhua Market Price on May 20: 13,500, up 1,050 from the previous day and 1,400 from the previous period [3] - Qilu Factory Price on May 20: 13,700, up 1,000 from the previous day and 1,400 from the previous period [3] Processing and Import - Export Data - Spot Processing Profit on May 20: 179, up 1,457 from the previous day and 1,041 from the previous period [3] - Futures Processing Profit on May 20: 164, up 1,732 from the previous day and 971 from the previous period [3] - Import Profit on May 20: - 1,214, down 1,395 from the previous day and 1,002 from the previous period [3] - Export Profit on May 20: 1,981, up 718 from the previous day and 377 from the previous period [3] Group 3: BD (Butadiene) Data Price Data - Shandong Market Price on May 20: 11,050, down 350 from the previous day and up 450 from the previous period [3] - Jiangsu Market Price on May 20: 11,000, up 100 from the previous day and 550 from the previous period [3] - Yangzi Factory Price on May 20: 11,100, unchanged from the previous day and up 800 from the previous period [3] - CFR China Price on May 20: 11,082, up 967 from the previous day [3] Processing and Import - Export Data - Carbon Four Extraction Profit on May 20: 3,459, down 600 from the previous day and up 929 from the previous period [3] - Butene Oxidative Dehydrogenation Profit on May 20: 816, down 1,270 from the previous day and 820 from the previous period [3] - Import Profit on May 20: - 139, down 953 from the previous day [3] - Export Profit on May 20: - 576, up 913 from the previous day [3] Group 4: Downstream Profit Data - Cis - Butadiene Production Profit on May 20: 179, up 1,457 from the previous day and 1,041 from the previous period [3] - Styrene - Butadiene Production Profit on May 20: 1,075, up 1,000 from the previous day and 650 from the previous period [3] - ABS Production Profit on May 20: 418, up 368 from the previous period [3] - SBS Production Profit (791 - H) on May 20: 330, up 200 from the previous day and down 160 from the previous period [3] Group 5: Variety Spread Data - RU - BR Spread on May 20: 3,340, up 510 from the previous day and 550 from the previous period [3] - NR - BR Spread on May 20: 1,085, up 455 from the previous day and 435 from the previous period [3] - Thai Mixed - Cis - Butadiene Spread on May 20: 3,000, up 750 from the previous day and 380 from the previous period [3] - 3L - Styrene - Butadiene Spread on May 20: 3,450, up 400 from the previous day and down 50 from the previous period [3] - Standard - Non - Standard Cis - Butadiene Spread on May 20: 250, up 80 from the previous day and 100 from the previous period [3] - Styrene - Butadiene 1502 - 1712 Spread on May 20: 1,700, up 700 from the previous day and 650 from the previous period [3]