研究所 期货眼·日迹 期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2025 年 12 月 29 日 0 / 45 | 股指期货：年末仍有望冲关 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：偏松的资金面支撑债市 4 | | 蛋白粕：美豆阶段性下行，盘面整体震荡 5 | | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价震荡略下调，国内糖价仍强势 5 | | 油脂板块：油脂技术性反弹，反弹高度或有限 7 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：现货上涨，盘面反弹 8 | | 生猪：供应压力好转，现货明显上涨 8 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面窄幅震荡 9 | | 鸡蛋：需求略有回升，蛋价有所回落 10 | | 苹果：需求表现一般，果价稳定为主 11 | | 棉花-棉纱：新棉销售较好，棉价震荡偏强 12 | | 钢材：补库预期有待兑现，钢价维持区间震荡 14 | | --- | | 双焦：宽幅震荡，驱动不明显 14 | | 铁矿：市场预期反复，矿价震荡运行 15 | | 铁合金：商品情绪升温，短期跟随反弹 16 | | 金银：黄金高位震荡 白银激进上涨 17 | | --- | | 铂钯：盘面进入资金博弈的宽幅震荡期 注重仓位管理谨慎参与 ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 12 月 29 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 震荡偏强 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 谨慎持多，轻仓过节 | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 区间震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 近月逢高滚动空 ...

晨会纪要 交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 12 月 29 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 | 联系人：王竣冬 | | --- | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | 研究咨询电话： | | 0531-81678626 | | 客服电话： | | 400-618-6767 | | 公司网址： | | www.ztqh.com | [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 [Table_Report] 中泰期货公众号 | 趋势空头 | 農荡偏空 | 農荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 尿素 | 碳酸锂 | 合成橡胶 | | | | 短纤 | 液化石油气 | 橡胶 | | | | 瓶片 | 锌 | 多晶硅 | | | | PTA | 铝 | 沥青 | | | | 乙二醇 | 工业硅 | 上证50股指期货 | | | | 对二甲苯 | 燃油 | 沪深300股指期货 | | | | 硅铁 | 眞湘 | 塑料 | | | | 锰硅 | 烧碱 | 甲醇 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Views of the Report The report offers daily research and analysis on various futures commodities, presenting the latest market trends and price movements of each product, along with corresponding trading strategies. It also provides detailed fundamental data and macro - industry news for each commodity to assist investors in making decisions [1][2]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Inflation is moderately declining, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of domestic and international gold futures and spot markets showed varying degrees of increase, and ETF holdings slightly increased. Macro - industry news includes the upcoming 2026 National Two Sessions and China's continued implementation of an active fiscal policy [6][8]. - **Silver**: It is in a high - level adjustment phase, with a trend intensity of 0. Domestic and international silver prices increased significantly, and trading volume and positions changed. ETF holdings slightly decreased [6]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Platinum has strong bullish sentiment, and palladium is in an upward - trending oscillation, both with a trend intensity of 1. The prices of platinum and palladium futures and spot markets showed significant increases, and trading volume and positions changed [23][25]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The strength of overseas spot markets supports price increases, with a trend intensity of 1. Domestic and international copper futures prices increased, and inventory decreased. Macro - industry news includes China's fiscal policy and production data from Peru and Kazakhstan [9][11]. - **Zinc**: It shows a slightly upward - trending oscillation, with a trend intensity of 0. Domestic and international zinc prices had slight changes, and inventory increased. Macro - industry news includes China's industrial profit data and fiscal policy [12][14]. - **Lead**: Weak demand restricts price increases, with a trend intensity of 0. Domestic and international lead prices increased slightly, and inventory decreased. Macro - industry news includes China's fiscal policy and industrial profit data [15][16]. - **Tin**: Supply is disrupted again, with a trend intensity of 1. Domestic and international tin prices increased, and inventory decreased. Macro - industry news includes the upcoming 2026 National Two Sessions and China's fiscal policy [18][20]. - **Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Aluminum follows the upward trend of copper; alumina has a "self - competing" policy orientation; cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum, all with a trend intensity of 1. The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy futures and spot markets had certain changes, and inventory and other data also changed [21][22]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: For nickel, there is a game between capital and industrial forces, and attention should be paid to the emergence of structural opportunities; for stainless steel, fundamentals limit its elasticity, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks, both with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of nickel and stainless - steel futures and spot markets had certain changes, and there were many industry news items related to Indonesia [27][31]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The difference between reality and expectations increases the divergence between bulls and bears, with high - level oscillations, and a trend intensity of 0. The prices of carbonate lithium futures and spot markets increased, and inventory and other data changed. Macro - industry news includes the price increase of battery - grade carbonate lithium and the production line maintenance plan of Anda Technology [32][34]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon should pay attention to the boost from sentiment on the market; polysilicon oscillates within a range with large fluctuations, with a trend intensity of 1 for industrial silicon and 0 for polysilicon. The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures and spot markets had certain changes, and inventory and other data also changed. Macro - industry news includes the price competition order compliance guidance in the photovoltaic industry [36][38]. - **Iron Ore**: It fluctuates repeatedly at a high level, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of iron - ore futures increased slightly, and spot prices also increased. Macro - industry news includes China's industrial profit data [39][40]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both are in low - level oscillations, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures decreased slightly, and spot prices also had certain changes. Macro - industry news includes production, inventory, and demand data in the steel industry [41][44]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Ferrosilicon**: Both are subject to market information disturbances and have wide - range oscillations, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of silicon ferrosilicon and manganese ferrosilicon futures decreased, and spot prices had certain changes. Macro - industry news includes the price changes of silicon ferrosilicon and manganese ferrosilicon [46][48]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke has an expectation of a fourth - round price reduction and fluctuates repeatedly; coking coal is affected by year - end production cuts and fluctuates repeatedly, both with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of coke and coking - coal futures decreased, and spot prices also had certain changes. Macro - industry news includes the CCI metallurgical coal index and production suspension in Yunnan [50][54]. - **Log**: It oscillates at a low level, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of log futures had slight changes, and spot prices were stable. Macro - industry news includes the LPR quotation [55][58]. - **Para - Xylene, PTA, and MEG**: Para - xylene and PTA are in high - level oscillation markets; MEG has limited upward space and still faces medium - term pressure, all with a trend intensity of 1. The prices of para - xylene, PTA, and MEG futures increased, and spot prices also had certain changes. Market dynamics include the restart of production devices [59][66]. - **Rubber**: It shows a slightly upward - trending oscillation, with a trend intensity of 1. The price of rubber increased, and the market had a positive sentiment. The import volume of natural rubber is expected to increase, and the inventory accumulation rate may slow down [67][70]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price center moves upward, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of synthetic rubber increased, and inventory increased slightly. The short - term price center of butadiene - styrene rubber moves upward, but the near - term fundamentals limit the upward elasticity [71][73]. - **Asphalt**: The spot price is temporarily stable, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of asphalt futures had slight changes, and inventory and production data also changed. Market information includes production volume and inventory data [74][85]. - **LLDPE**: The basis is weak, and spot transactions are concentrated in the middle stream, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of LLDPE futures increased, and the basis weakened. The upstream price increased, and inventory shifted to the middle stream [86][88]. - **PP**: Multiple PDH units are planned to be overhauled in January, and the market stabilizes and oscillates, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of PP futures decreased slightly, and the basis was under pressure. The downstream demand was weak, and the PDH profit was at a low level [89][91]. - **Caustic Soda**: The short - term rebound height is limited, and attention should be paid to the delivery pressure in January, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of caustic - soda futures and spot prices had certain changes. The market followed the rebound of alumina, but the supply pressure was high [92][94]. - **Pulp**: It oscillates, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of pulp futures had slight changes, and spot prices were relatively stable. The market was affected by multiple factors, and there was no clear one - sided drive [96][101]. - **Methanol**: It oscillates, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of methanol futures decreased slightly, and inventory increased. The market oscillated in a weak fundamental and strong macro environment [102][106]. - **Urea**: It oscillates in the short term, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of urea futures decreased slightly, and inventory decreased. The market drive was neutral, and there was support at the bottom [107][110]. - **Styrene**: It oscillates in the short term, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of styrene futures increased, and the processing fee was expected to be at a medium - high level. The supply and demand structure supported the price, but there were also risks [111][114]. Agricultural Products - **LPG and Propylene**: LPG has a short - term tight supply, and attention should be paid to the realization of downward drivers; propylene's spot supply and demand are tightening, and there is an expectation of a stop - falling rebound, both with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of LPG and propylene futures had certain changes, and industry news includes CP paper - cargo prices and device maintenance plans [115][121]. - **PVC**: The short - term rebound height is limited, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of PVC futures and spot prices were relatively stable, and the market was in a high - production and high - inventory pattern [123][126]. - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil mainly shows a night - session adjustment trend and may remain strong in the short term; low - sulfur fuel oil oscillates in a narrow range, and the spot price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the external market is temporarily stable, both with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel - oil futures had certain changes, and spot prices also changed [128]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chips**: Both are in high - level oscillations, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of short - fiber and bottle - chip futures increased, and spot prices also increased. The market trading atmosphere was good [130][131]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is advisable to wait and see, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of offset - printing - paper futures increased slightly, and spot prices were stable. The market trading was light, and the price was stable [133][136]. - **Pure Benzene**: It oscillates mainly in the short term, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of pure - benzene futures increased, and inventory increased. The market is expected to rebound after the first - quarter pressure [138][139]. - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil rebounds in the short - term rhythm with limited height; soybean oil has little driving force from US soybeans, and range operation is recommended, both with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of palm oil and soybean - oil futures increased slightly, and industry news includes production and export data of palm oil and soybean - growing conditions [141][146]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybeans**: Overnight US soybeans closed down, and Dalian soybean meal may adjust; soybeans oscillate, both with a trend intensity of 0. The price of soybean - meal futures increased, and spot prices also increased. The US soybean market was affected by multiple factors [147][149]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of corn futures increased, and spot prices also increased. Market information includes corn prices in different regions [150][153]. - **Sugar**: The market atmosphere is strong, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of sugar futures increased, and industry news includes production and import data at home and abroad [154][157]. - **Cotton**: The area expectation is undetermined, and the futures price回调, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of cotton futures had certain changes, and spot prices increased. The spot trading of cotton was light, and the demand of the cotton - textile industry was weak [159][164]. - **Eggs**: It oscillates and adjusts, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of egg futures increased, and spot prices also increased. The market was relatively stable [166]. - **Hogs**: Contradictions continue to accumulate, and it is strong in the short term, with a trend intensity of 1. The price of hog futures and spot prices increased, and industry news includes warehouse - receipt registration and anti - dumping determination [168][172]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the purchase of oil mills, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of peanut futures had slight changes, and spot prices were stable. The market supply and demand were relatively balanced [174][176].

Group 1: Macro Insights - The US real estate market is currently in a "weak supply and demand" state, with expectations of a weak recovery by 2026 due to challenges in policy transmission and external risks [2] - Industrial profits in November continued to decline year-on-year, with only the midstream equipment sector showing stable growth, while upstream and downstream sectors weakened [3] - The A-share market has not shown clear signs of a bull market peak, indicating continued potential for market performance [4] Group 2: Market Strategies - The A-share market is expected to experience a spring rally supported by ongoing policy efforts and capital inflows, with a focus on growth and consumer sectors [5] - The REITs market has shown signs of price recovery after five weeks of decline, with notable returns compared to other asset classes [6] - Credit bond issuance increased by 15.42% week-on-week, indicating a positive trend in the credit market [7] Group 3: Industry Research - The green methanol sector is rapidly growing under the "carbon neutrality" initiative, with a focus on companies that have established a complete supply chain [10] - The engineering machinery industry is witnessing a recovery in domestic demand and accelerated overseas growth, with several key manufacturers recommended for investment [11] - Strategic metals are expected to see investment opportunities due to favorable supply-demand dynamics and resource nationalism [12] Group 4: Company Research - Sinopec Engineering's acquisition of the East China Pipeline Design Institute is expected to enhance its competitive edge in pipeline transportation [19] - China Oil Engineering has signed a $424 million EPC contract for a pipeline project in Kazakhstan, indicating its proactive expansion into overseas markets [20] - Jinhui Liquor is positioned to benefit from regional brand advantages and market expansion, with strong revenue and profit growth projections [21]

2025年12月29日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：高位反复 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：低位震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：低位震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：市场信息扰动，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：市场信息扰动，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：四轮提降预期仍存，震荡反复 | 7 | | 焦煤：年底减产扰动，震荡反复 | 7 | | 原木：低位震荡 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 29 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | I 2605 | | 783.0 | 4.5 | 0. 58% | | | | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 580. 731 | 13. 627 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) ...

来源：兴证策略张启尧团队 引言：近期人民币加速走强，新一轮人民币升值周期启动愈发成为市场共识。为何近期人民币升值加速？后续人民币升值还有哪些支撑，如何影响市场？ 历史上的人民币升值周期，A股与港股如何表现？如何把握新一轮人民币升值周期的配置机会？详见报告： 一、为何近期人民币升值加速？ 近期人民币加速升值引发市场关注。我们认为，背后主要反映的是美元再度走弱叠加年末"结汇潮"带动下，人民币相对其他非美货币的"补涨"，与市场对 人民币升值的一致预期形成共振。 首先，随着11月下旬市场美联储降息预期下修到位、未来宽松指引逐渐明朗，美元再度走弱带动人民币加速升值。10月美国政府停摆对于TGA账户的"抽 水"、叠加数据空窗期下美联储降息表态趋于谨慎，曾一度引发市场流动性预期收紧，进而带动美元指数持续走强，成为当时美元兑人民币汇率继续下行 的掣肘。而11月下旬以来，随着美国政府"开门"后流动性释放、12月美联储降息并开启技术性扩表，显著改善此前偏紧的流动性环境，叠加关键数据验证 以及特朗普对于"影子主席"的表态进一步为后续宽松打开想象空间，美元指数见顶回落、快速下行破98，是近期人民币加速升值的重要推动。 二、后续人民币 ...

供应端，全球发运量有所减少。澳洲、巴西发运量同步下降，其他国家发运量小幅增加。澳洲发运量 1950.6万吨，环比减少102万吨，其中澳洲发往中国的量1694.5万吨，环比减少7.6万吨。巴西发运量 864.1万吨，环比减少48.8万吨。分矿山来看，力拓发运量环比减少10.5万吨至734.4万吨，BHP发运量环 比减少5.6万吨至576.2万吨，FMG发运量环比减少66.9万吨至307.8万吨，VALE发运量环比减少67.6万吨 至614.6万吨。中国47港口到港量2790.2万吨，环比减少137.8万吨。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 钢材：矛盾不足驱动有限，钢价震荡趋势难改 螺纹方面，本周全国螺纹产量环比回升2.71万吨至184.39万吨，同比减少31.91万吨；社库环比回落18.81 万吨至294.19万吨，同比增加15.98万吨；厂库环比回升0.52万吨至140.06万吨，同比增加18.53万吨；螺 纹表需环比回落5.96万吨至202.68万吨，同比减少16.9万吨。螺纹产量继续回升，库存降幅有所收窄， 表需回落，供需数据偏中性。据海关数据，1-11月我国棒线材出口1 ...

| 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 3964 | 0.1 | 2.57 | 1.88 | | 深证综指 | 2542 | 0.32 | 4.47 | 3.13 | 今日重点推荐 2025 年 12 月 29 日 金马游乐（300756）深度：技术突破引领业绩高增，AI+机器 人共筑新篇 ◼ 立足全产业链布局与技术突破，实现业绩增长与运营质量提升。公司至今 发展数十年，核心业务涵盖游乐装备制造与游乐投资运营，已构建起覆盖 13 大类大型游乐设施及 8 大系列虚拟沉浸式项目的产品矩阵，多项技术实 现进口替代，远销全球近 50 个国家与地区。公司股权结构稳定，实控人为 创始人兼董事长。 ◼ 政策支持与市场需求驱动行业转型，技术突破与智能化成核心竞争力。我 国游乐设施行业正进行结构化升级，国家政策持续发力服务消费及大规模 设备更新，行业监管体系成熟且准入壁垒较高，行业 beta 预期向上。大型 游乐设备制造行业产业链清晰，主题公园为主要下游应用场景，全球主题 公园 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年12月29日08时11分 投资咨询系列报告 临近年末，市场观望情绪浓厚，国内煤矿继续减产，开工率继续下滑，矿山原煤库存继续增加。进口方面，蒙煤口岸通关车数位于高位，澳煤价格 内外倒挂。需求端，中下游采购以刚需补库为主。随着下游冬储补库预期的增强以及反内卷预期的扰动 ，市场情绪有所转强。整体来看，年末焦煤 向供需双弱方向转变，利空因素在很大程度上已经体现在较低的期价之中 ，较大的基差对期价也有支撑。技术面上，焦煤05合约大幅反弹后回调， 预计将形成阶段性底。 操作建议： 多单可以继续持有，中线交易。 报告导读： 供需方面，本周的数据显示螺纹热卷产量回升 ，五大品种总产量环比回落，整体库存继续回落。螺纹表观需求有所下降，热卷的表观需求回升，五 大品种表观需求整体回落，市场仍处于供需双弱的状态。由于钢厂毛利大幅回落，且消费高峰已过，钢厂产量有望继续缓慢下降。最近几天煤焦价 格大幅反弹，对盘面成本支撑有所抬升。整体来看，在消费淡季，供需双弱，冬储仍需要一段时间才能到来，宏观面信心增强，期价有望维持震荡 上行的走势。从技术上看，在日 K 线图上 ...