Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 24.972 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 12.35 billion yuan, up 18.9% year-on-year, with an EPS of 1.35 yuan and a ROE of 9.9%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The brokerage business saw significant growth, with revenue reaching 8.889 billion yuan, a 43.8% increase year-on-year, accounting for 35.6% of total revenue. The company maintained a market share of 4.54% in brokerage services [7] - The investment banking segment also performed well, with revenue of 1.03 billion yuan, a 20% increase year-on-year, and a total underwriting scale of 171.5 billion yuan, up 23.9% [7] - The asset management business reported revenue of 870 million yuan, a 21.7% increase year-on-year, with total management scale reaching 2.653 trillion yuan [7] - The company is expected to see net profits of 13.634 billion yuan in 2026 and 14.610 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth of 10% and 7% respectively [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2024 is 20.891 billion yuan, with a projected growth of 5.4%. For 2025, the revenue is expected to reach 24.972 billion yuan, a growth of 19.53% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 10.386 billion yuan in 2024, increasing to 12.350 billion yuan in 2025, which is an 18.51% growth [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 1.13 yuan for 2024, increasing to 1.35 yuan for 2025 [1] - The P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 13.55 in 2024 to 11.34 in 2025, indicating a more attractive valuation [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The current macro data remains stable, but the macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened. The monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The bond market, stock index, precious metals, and various commodity futures markets are affected by factors such as the Iran - US conflict, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes, with different trends and investment suggestions. [6][10][12] Summary by Directory Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, treasury futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell 0.42%, 0.09%, 0.06%, and 0.01% respectively. The 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPR on March 20, 2026, were 3.0% and 3.5% respectively. The US is considering the next - stage plan and possible peace talks with Iran. The market is expected to face pressure, and caution is advised. [5][6] Stock Index - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM fell 0.28%, 0.95%, 1.16%, and 1.26% respectively. With weak domestic economic recovery momentum, low corporate profit growth, and low asset valuation, the policy environment is favorable. However, due to the uncertainty of the Iran situation, the market volatility is expected to increase, and it is advisable to wait on the sidelines. [8][10] Precious Metals - Last trading day, the main contracts of gold and silver fell 2.15% and 2.00% respectively. The "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold, but due to the previous sharp rise and the uncertainty of the Iran situation, the market volatility is expected to increase, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines. [12] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures slightly corrected. The short - term Middle - East geopolitical conflict may affect sentiment, while the medium - term price is determined by supply - demand. The demand for rebar is still in a downward trend, but the supply pressure has eased. The price may rebound but with limited space. The trend of hot - rolled coil is expected to be similar. Investors can look for low - position long opportunities. [14] Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated. The short - term Middle - East conflict may affect sentiment, and the demand is expected to expand after the end of key meetings, but the supply is abundant. The price is expected to rebound in the short - term, and investors can look for low - position long opportunities. [16] Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated. The short - term Middle - East conflict may affect sentiment. The supply of coking coal may increase, and the demand is weak. The supply of coke is stable, and the demand is expected to increase. The price is in a volatile pattern, and investors can look for low - position buy opportunities. [17] Ferroalloys - Last trading day, the main contracts of manganese silicon and silicon iron rose 3.46% and 1.58% respectively. The cost is in a narrow - range upward trend, the supply is loose, and the demand is weak. After a rapid short - term price rebound, investors can consider taking long - position profit - taking opportunities. [19][20] Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil fell sharply due to the easing of the US - Israel - Iran war. Speculators increased their net long positions, and the US energy companies reduced the number of oil and gas rigs. The US approved the relaxation of sanctions on Iranian oil products. The price may be supported, but due to the change in the war situation, it is advisable to wait on the sidelines. [21][22] Polyolefins - Last trading day, the PP and LLDPE markets in Hangzhou and Yuyao declined. Affected by the geopolitical crisis, the cost pressure increased, the industry's operating rate decreased, and the supply decreased. The downstream demand increased slightly. It is necessary to operate with caution due to geopolitical influence, and it is advisable to wait on the sidelines. [24] Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber rose 1.82%. The current price is mainly supported by cost and is expected to maintain a relatively strong volatile trend. It is necessary to pay attention to device maintenance, crude oil price, and tire export orders. [26][28] Natural Rubber - Last trading day, the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - number rubber fell. The market is in a game between the cost of synthetic rubber pushed up by the Middle - East conflict and the approaching domestic tapping season and inventory pressure. It is expected to be in a wide - range volatile trend. [29][30] PVC - Last trading day, the PVC main contract fell during the day and rose at night. The market is in a game between the energy and raw material supply concerns caused by the overseas conflict, the spring demand, and high inventory. The price is expected to be in a relatively strong volatile trend, but the upside is restricted by high inventory. [31][33] Urea - Last trading day, the urea main contract fell. The current contradiction lies between high supply and policy ceiling. The price is expected to be in a weak - volatile trend, but the downside is limited due to cost support and approaching demand season. [34][35] PX - Last trading day, the PX2605 main contract fluctuated. The PXN spread and short - process profit are compressed, the supply is slightly tight, and the demand is gradually recovering. Affected by the uncertain geopolitical situation, the price may be volatile and may have a correction risk. It is necessary to operate with caution. [36][37] PTA - Last trading day, the PTA2605 main contract fluctuated. The processing fee has adjusted, the demand from downstream is weak, and the price is mainly affected by the change in the cost end. Due to the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation, it is advisable to operate with caution. [38] Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose. The supply decreased slightly, the inventory decreased, the demand from downstream increased, and the price is expected to be stronger than other polyester varieties in the short - term. However, due to the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation, it is necessary to pay attention to the situation of the Strait and the progress of the spring inspection. [39][40] Short - Fiber - Last trading day, the short - fiber 2606 main contract fluctuated. The supply decreased slightly, the demand from downstream is weak, and the price is mainly affected by the cost end. It is necessary to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, device dynamics, and downstream factory resumption progress. [41] Bottle Chips - Last trading day, the bottle chips 2605 main contract fell sharply. The cost support weakened, the demand from downstream is weak, and due to the changeable Middle - East situation, the raw material price may fluctuate greatly. It is advisable to participate with caution. [42][43] Soda Ash - Last trading day, the main contract of soda ash fell. The supply remains high, the inventory decreased slightly, and the demand from downstream is weak. The price is expected to be in a short - term volatile adjustment. [44][45] Glass - Last trading day, the glass main contract fell. The production lines decreased, the inventory decreased slowly, the demand from downstream is weak, and the cost pressure remains. The price is expected to be volatile. [46] Caustic Soda - Last trading day, the caustic soda main contract rose. The supply decreased slightly, the demand from downstream is good, and the price of 50% caustic soda may rise. It is necessary to pay attention to overseas device dynamics and export orders. [47][48] Pulp - Last trading day, the pulp main contract rose. The port inventory decreased, the domestic supply increased slightly, the demand from downstream is weak, and the price of pulp is expected to be supported. The risk of coniferous pulp fluctuation is relatively high, while broad - leaf pulp is relatively stable. [49][50] Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract fell. Affected by the US - Iran conflict and resource nationalism in Africa, the supply of lithium ore may be in a tight balance, the demand from downstream is improving, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to have strong support below, but the short - term volatility may increase. [51] Copper - Last trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract fell. Affected by the geopolitical situation, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation was almost eliminated, and the dollar index rose. The supply of copper is tight, the demand is structurally growing, and the inventory is high. The price is expected to be in a weak - volatile trend with a bottom. [52][53] Aluminum - Last trading day, the Shanghai aluminum and alumina main contracts fell. Alumina is in a cost - driven rebound, and electrolytic aluminum is under pressure due to the game between strong expectation and weak reality. The price of alumina may be in a volatile adjustment, and the price of electrolytic aluminum is expected to be in a weak - volatile trend with a bottom. [54][55] Zinc - Last trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract rose slightly. The supply of zinc is increasing, the demand from the real - estate sector is weak, and affected by the Middle - East situation and the strong dollar, the price is expected to be under pressure. [56][57] Lead - Last trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract rose slightly. The supply of lead is supported in the short - term, the demand is weak, and affected by the macro pressure on the non - ferrous sector, the price is expected to be in a weak - volatile trend. [58][59] Tin - Last trading day, the Shanghai tin main contract rose. Affected by the US - Iran conflict, the price may be volatile. The supply of tin is slightly eased, the demand is supported by the emerging field, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to have support below, but it is necessary to control risks due to the uncertainty of the overseas situation. [60] Nickel - Last trading day, the Shanghai nickel main contract rose. Affected by the US - Iran conflict, the price may be volatile. The supply of nickel ore may be tight, the cost may rise, the demand from downstream is weak, and the inventory is relatively high. The price of primary nickel is in an oversupply situation, and it is necessary to pay attention to Indonesian policies and macro - events. [61][62] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, the soybean meal main contract fell, and the soybean oil main contract rose slightly. Brazilian soybean harvest is approaching 60%, and the dollar is rising, which suppresses the price of soybeans. The short - term supply of soybeans may be tight, and the medium - term supply is expected to be relatively loose. It is advisable to wait and see due to the uncertainty of the Middle - East conflict. [63][64] Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil market was closed on March 20 and 23, and will resume trading on March 24. The export volume of palm oil products increased from March 1 - 20, and the domestic import volume increased. The inventory is at a relatively high level in the past 7 years. It is advisable to consider reducing or closing long positions. [65][66] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed is oscillating near the key support level. The domestic import volume of rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal is large. The inventory of rapeseed is at a low level in the past 7 years, the inventory of rapeseed meal is at a high level, and the inventory of rapeseed oil is at a medium level. It is advisable to wait and see. [67] Cotton - Last trading day, domestic Zheng cotton fell, and the overseas cotton market was weak. The domestic cotton import volume increased in 2026, and the issuance of the sliding - scale quota increased and was advanced, which is a short - term negative factor. However, the global cotton production is expected to decrease in the new year, and the medium - and long - term price is expected to be strong. [68][70] Sugar - Last trading day, domestic Zheng sugar rebounded slightly, and the overseas raw sugar rose. The domestic sugar import volume increased, the production is expected to increase, and the industrial inventory is higher. The increase in oil price will change the sugar - making ratio in Brazil's new season, and the medium - and long - term sugar price bottom is expected to rise. [71][73] Apples - Last trading day, apple futures were strong. As the Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking is in full swing, the demand in the sales area is increasing, and the inventory is decreasing. The apple market is expected to maintain a stable - to - strong trend. It is necessary to pay attention to the inventory - removal rate and the weather during the flowering period. [74][76] Hogs - Last trading day, the main contract of hogs fell. The supply of hogs is abundant, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate slightly in the short - term. The government has started the purchase - storage mechanism, but the support is insufficient. It is advisable to hold short positions. [77] Eggs - Last trading day, the main contract of eggs rose. The cost of eggs is rising, the inventory of laying hens is at a high level in the past 10 years, and the supply in March is expected to remain high. It is advisable to gradually take profit on short positions in the far - month contracts. [78][79] Corn and Starch - Last trading day, the corn and corn - starch main contracts rose. The northern port inventory is low, the demand from feed enterprises is increasing, and the price is strong. The South American corn planting is progressing smoothly, and the dollar is rising, which brings pressure. The domestic corn supply and demand are basically balanced, and the demand for corn starch is slightly improving. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of the far - month out - of - the - money put option when the price rises sharply. [80][82] Logs - Last trading day, the main contract of logs rose. The shipment of New Zealand logs to China increased, the downstream demand improved, and the terminal consumption is polarized. The cost pressure increased, and the price is expected to be in a high - level volatile trend. It is necessary to pay attention to the overseas quotation, shipment dynamics, and downstream consumption. [83][85]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the text. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical conflicts, and different commodities have different trends and investment suggestions [6]. - For different commodities, there are different outlooks. For example, some are expected to be bullish, some bearish, and some in a state of shock [43][44][47]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose by 0.13%, 0.05%, 0.04%, and 0.03% respectively [5]. - **Open Market Operations**: On March 17, the central bank carried out 51 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 11.5 billion yuan [5]. - **Policy**: The Ministry of Finance will implement a more proactive fiscal policy and focus on seven major tasks [5]. - **Outlook**: There is still some pressure in the future market, and caution is recommended [7]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures changed by - 0.71%, 0.30%, - 2.05%, and - 2.02% respectively [8]. - **Economic Data**: From January to February, the total electricity consumption of the whole society increased by 6.1% year - on - year [8]. - **Outlook**: The market volatility is expected to increase significantly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now [9]. 3.3 Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the gold main contract fell by 0.19%, and the silver main contract rose by 0.03% [10]. - **Driving Factors**: The complex global trade and financial environment and the actions of central banks support the value of precious metals. However, due to the uncertainty of the Iran situation, the market volatility is expected to increase [10]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [11]. 3.4 Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. The spot prices of Tangshan billet, Shanghai rebar, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil were reported [12]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short term, the Middle East conflict may affect sentiment, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. In the medium term, the price is dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is in a downward trend, and the supply pressure has been alleviated [12]. - **Outlook**: The price may rebound, but the space may be limited. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low positions and manage positions [13]. 3.5 Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rose slightly. The spot prices of PB powder and super - special powder were reported [14]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short term, the Middle East conflict may affect sentiment, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. The demand may increase, and the supply has increased in the first two months of this year. The inventory is at a high level [14]. - **Outlook**: The demand may have a limited positive effect. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low positions and manage positions [15]. 3.6 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short term, the Middle East conflict may affect sentiment, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. The supply of coking coal may increase, and the demand is weak. The supply of coke is stable, and the demand may increase [15]. - **Outlook**: The futures are still in a volatile pattern. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low positions and manage positions [16]. 3.7 Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the manganese - silicon main contract rose by 0.84%, and the silicon - iron main contract rose by 0.51% [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of manganese ore has changed, and the cost of ferroalloys has fluctuated slightly. The production of ferroalloys is at a low level, and the demand is weak, with an overall surplus pressure [17][18]. - **Outlook**: After a rapid short - term price rebound, investors can consider the opportunity of closing long positions [18]. 3.8 Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rebounded after hitting a low [19]. - **Market News**: Speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of oil and gas rigs in the US increased. The Iran - Ukraine situation is tense [19]. - **Outlook**: The increase in net long positions shows that US funds are optimistic about the future of crude oil. The war between the US and Iran is accelerating, and the global crude oil supply shortage looms. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the main contract [20][21]. 3.9 Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou and the LLDPE market in Yuyao showed a downward trend [21]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short term, the contraction trend is obvious, and the average capacity utilization rate has decreased. In the long term, the import volume may decrease in April, but new production capacity plans are intensive. The demand shows the characteristics of "increasing start - up but cautious procurement" [21]. - **Outlook**: Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of going long [22]. 3.10 Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract fell by 1.62% [23]. - **Supply and Demand**: The cost of synthetic rubber has increased due to the Middle East conflict. Some devices are planned to be shut down for maintenance. The supply is high - load operation, and the demand is in the recovery stage but affected by the Middle East conflict. The inventory has changed from accumulation to depletion [23][24]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be in a strong - side shock [25]. 3.11 Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract fell by 0.21%, and the 20 - grade rubber main contract rose by 0.30% [26]. - **Supply and Demand**: The cost of synthetic rubber has increased, strengthening the substitution demand for natural rubber. The supply is in the low - production season, and the demand is in the recovery stage but lower than last year. The inventory is still accumulating, but the accumulation rate may slow down [26]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be in a strong - side shock, supported by substitution demand and low - production season in the short term, and the inventory depletion and demand recovery in the medium term need to be concerned [26]. 3.12 PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose by 0.73% [27]. - **Supply and Demand**: The cost is strongly supported in the short term, and the price is in a strong - side shock. The supply capacity utilization rate is high, the demand is gradually starting in spring but at a low level, and the inventory is still accumulating [27][28]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be in a strong - side shock [29]. 3.13 Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the urea main contract fell by 1.73% [30]. - **Supply and Demand**: The cost is supported in the short term, but there are still policy regulation and production capacity release pressures. The supply is stable, the demand is concentrated, and the inventory is decreasing [30]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be in a shock - strong trend [31]. 3.14 PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PX2605 main contract fell by 1.9% [32]. - **Supply and Demand**: The PX load has decreased, the supply is expected to be tight, and the downstream demand is gradually recovering. The short - term PXN spread and short - process profit are slightly compressed [32]. - **Outlook**: PX is expected to enter the de - stocking channel. The price may fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to operate cautiously at low positions and pay attention to oil price changes and the situation [32]. 3.15 PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PTA2605 main contract fell by 1.26% [33]. - **Supply and Demand**: The PTA processing fee has adjusted, the supply has decreased, and the demand is expected to improve. The cost is affected by the Middle East conflict [33]. - **Outlook**: The PTA price is still anchored to the cost. It is recommended to operate cautiously at low positions and pay attention to the Iran - US conflict and oil price changes [33]. 3.16 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract fell by 1.27% [34]. - **Supply and Demand**: The overall开工 load has decreased, the import is expected to decrease, and the inventory has a de - stocking expectation. The demand is increasing [34]. - **Outlook**: The short - term geopolitical situation is uncertain, and the cost may fluctuate greatly. Pay attention to the geopolitical situation and the spring - maintenance rhythm [34]. 3.17 Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2606 main contract fell by 0.93% [35]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is gradually increasing, the terminal demand is recovering, and the inventory is at a low level. The cost is affected by the geopolitical situation [35]. - **Outlook**: The short - fiber still trades based on the cost logic. Pay attention to the geopolitical situation, device dynamics, and downstream factory resumption progress [35]. 3.18 Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2605 main contract fell by 1.13% [36]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is expected to shrink, the inventory is decreasing, the demand is increasing, and the cost is supported [36]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to follow the cost and fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to participate cautiously and pay attention to the restart of maintenance devices and cost changes [36]. 3.19 Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2605 contract of soda ash closed at 1243 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.43% [37]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production is stable, the inventory has decreased slightly, and the downstream demand is weak. The export advantage has decreased [37]. - **Outlook**: There is no significant support signal in the fundamentals, and the market sentiment fluctuates [37]. 3.20 Glass - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2605 contract of glass closed at 1094 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.97% [38]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production line is shrinking, the inventory has decreased slightly, and the demand recovery is slow [38]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals support is limited, the multi - empty game intensifies, and the position should be controlled. Pay attention to the Middle East situation and fundamental indicators [38]. 3.21 Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2605 contract of caustic soda closed at 2523 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.59% [39]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply has decreased slightly, the inventory has decreased, and the price has different trends in different regions. The long - term blockade of the Strait may affect the production of overseas chlorine - alkali equipment and increase China's export advantage [39][40]. - **Outlook**: Pay attention to overseas device dynamics, export orders, domestic inventory changes, and device maintenance progress [40]. 3.22 Pulp - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2605 contract of pulp closed at 5088 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.60% [41]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic production will decrease due to maintenance, the port inventory has decreased slightly, and the downstream demand is weak [41]. - **Outlook**: The price of softwood pulp is affected by macro - sentiment, and the price of hardwood pulp is relatively stable. The downstream demand recovers slowly [42]. 3.23 Carbonate Lithium - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the carbonate lithium main contract rose by 0.39% to 155320 yuan/ton [43]. - **Supply and Demand**: The global lithium resource supply - demand balance is being reshaped, the supply is in a tight balance, the demand is improving, and the inventory is decreasing [43]. - **Outlook**: The price has strong support below, but the short - term fluctuation may increase. Pay attention to the follow - up of relevant events [43]. 3.24 Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 99140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.92% [44]. - **Supply and Demand**: The macro - level pressure is significant, the supply is under pressure in the short term, and the demand has a certain support [44][45]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be in a weak - side shock [46]. 3.25 Aluminum - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24915 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.52%, and the alumina main contract rose by 1.59% [47]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply pressure of alumina is high, the cost is supported, the supply in the Middle East is tightened, and the domestic demand is recovering [47]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to run strongly [48]. 3.26 Zinc - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 23450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.76% [49]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is increasing, the demand recovery is uncertain, and the inventory is increasing [49][50]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be in a pressured shock [51]. 3.27 Lead - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16670 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.03% [52]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production of primary lead is increasing, the recovery of secondary lead is slow, the demand is affected by geopolitical risks, and the inventory is increasing [52]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be in a pressured adjustment [53]. 3.28 Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai tin main contract fell by 2.34% to 370920 yuan/ton [54]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply tightness has eased, the demand has a complex picture, and the inventory is decreasing [54]. - **Outlook**: The price has support below, but the short - term commodity price may fluctuate greatly. Pay attention to risk control [54]. 3.29 Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel main contract fell by 0.95% to 135850 yuan/ton [55]. - **Supply and Demand**: The nickel ore supply is expected to be tight, the cost is rising, the downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is at a relatively high level [55]. - **Outlook**: The primary nickel is in an oversupply pattern. Pay attention to relevant policies and macro - events [55]. 3.30 Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract fell by 0.42%, and the soybean oil main contract fell by 0.78% [56]. - **Supply and Demand**: The Brazilian soybean harvest is approaching 60%, the oil factory's soybean crushing volume is increasing, and the inventory is decreasing. The consumption of soybean oil and soybean meal has different trends [56]. - **Outlook**: The short - term supply may be tight, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose. It is recommended to wait and see [57]. 3.31 Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil fell by more than 1%, ending a four - day rise [58]. - **

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Chongqing Bank's stock price has been declining, with A-shares down 0.41% to 9.79 yuan and Hong Kong shares down 0.39% to 7.66 HKD as of February 27, 2026, marking a new low since December 2025 [1] - Since the beginning of 2026, the China Securities Banking Index has cumulatively retreated by 6.33%, with concerns over the pace of macroeconomic recovery, real estate risks, and pressure on net interest margins exacerbating the sell-off of bank stocks [1] - Chongqing Bank's A-shares have seen a year-to-date decline of 8.18%, underperforming the sector [1] Group 2 - On February 27, 2026, Chongqing Bank's A-shares experienced a net outflow of 101.5 thousand yuan in principal funds, reflecting a rising risk aversion among institutional investors [1] - The Hong Kong shares also saw a net outflow of 44.1 thousand HKD, indicating a simultaneous reduction in positions by both domestic and foreign investors, which intensified stock price volatility [1] - Despite achieving double-digit growth in revenue and net profit in the first three quarters of 2025, and surpassing a total asset scale of 1 trillion yuan, the market is more concerned about the high non-performing loan ratio in real estate loans, which reached 7.19% by June 2025, and a capital adequacy ratio below the industry average [1] Group 3 - Chongqing Bank's A-share price has declined by 11.24% since the peak of 11.56 yuan in December 2025, breaking below the 60-day moving average support, which triggered further stop-loss selling [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the company [1] Core Insights - Morgan Stanley has revised its revenue and profit forecasts for the company for the years 2025 to 2027 down by 1% and approximately 3% respectively [1] - The revenue forecast for the last quarter of the previous year has been adjusted from a high single-digit growth to a mid-single-digit growth, primarily due to macroeconomic slowdown and weak dining demand [1] - The firm anticipates that gradual economic recovery and pipeline expansion will support the company in achieving high single-digit revenue and profit growth in 2026 and 2027 [1] - The target price for the company has been slightly reduced from HKD 41 to HKD 40 [1]

Market Overview - The A-share market has shown a significant recovery since the holiday, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.6%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.66%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.41% as of February 25 [1] - The average stock price in the A-share market increased by 1.62%, reaching 30.07 yuan per share, surpassing the 30 yuan mark [1] - Trading volume has also rebounded, with the first trading day post-holiday seeing a turnover of 2.2 trillion yuan, which further increased to 2.46 trillion yuan on the following day, exceeding the average daily turnover of approximately 2.09 trillion yuan before the holiday [1] Leverage and Fund Inflow - Leveraged funds have actively entered the market post-holiday, with net financing purchases reaching 338.9 billion yuan on the first trading day, marking the second-highest level of the year [2] - On February 25, net financing purchases amounted to 236.4 billion yuan, bringing the total for the two trading days to 575.3 billion yuan, surpassing the net selling scale before the holiday [2] - Prior to the holiday, the A-share market experienced a decline in financing balance from 2.722 trillion yuan to 2.572 trillion yuan, a drop of 150 billion yuan due to risk aversion among investors [2] ETF Market Stability - The A-share stock ETF market saw a rapid decline in late January, dropping from over 4 trillion yuan to around 3.1 trillion yuan, but has stabilized since February [2] - As of February 25, the asset scale of stock ETFs was reported at 3.18 trillion yuan, maintaining a steady state [2] Sector Performance - Among the 31 first-level industries, the steel, non-ferrous metals, building materials, oil and petrochemicals, and basic chemicals sectors showed the highest growth rates post-holiday, with the steel sector leading at a 7.19% increase [4][5] - Other notable sectors included non-ferrous metals at 6.90%, building materials at 6.56%, oil and petrochemicals at 5.73%, and basic chemicals at 5.68% [5] Economic Outlook and Policy Impact - Market participants have noted an increased expectation for macroeconomic recovery, particularly with the anticipation of stable growth policies being reflected in the A-share market [6] - Analysts predict that a series of investment-promoting policies will be implemented, leading to accelerated infrastructure investment in the first half of 2026 [6] - The market is expected to shift from "policy expectations" to "earnings realization" as companies begin to disclose their annual reports for 2025 and subsequent quarterly reports for 2026, which will serve as key market indicators [7]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has downgraded the revenue and profit forecasts for Haitian Flavor Industry (603288) (03288) for the years 2025 to 2027 by 1% and approximately 3% respectively [1] Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The revenue forecast for the fourth quarter of last year has been revised from a high single-digit growth to a mid single-digit growth due to macroeconomic slowdown and weak dining demand [1] - The company is expected to achieve high single-digit revenue and profit growth in 2026 and 2027, supported by gradual macroeconomic recovery and pipeline expansion [1] Target Price and Rating - The target price for the company has been slightly reduced from HKD 41 to HKD 40, while maintaining a rating of "Overweight" [1]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley has lowered its revenue and profit forecasts for Haitian Flavor Industry (03288) for the years 2025 to 2027 by 1% and approximately 3% respectively [1] - The bank has revised its revenue forecast for the company's fourth quarter of last year from a high single-digit growth to a mid single-digit growth, primarily due to macroeconomic slowdown and weak dining demand [1] - It is anticipated that gradual recovery in the macro economy and pipeline expansion will support the company in achieving high single-digit revenue and profit growth in 2026 and 2027 [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley has slightly reduced the target price for the company from HKD 41 to HKD 40, maintaining an "Overweight" rating [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For Treasury bonds, it is expected that there will still be some pressure, and caution should be maintained [6][7]. - For stock index futures, it is expected that the volatility center will gradually move up, and previous long positions can continue to be held [8][9]. - For precious metals, market volatility is expected to increase significantly, and long positions can be liquidated for observation [10]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coils, prices may continue to fluctuate weakly, and investors can pay attention to opportunities to go long on pullbacks [11][12]. - For iron ore, the market supply - demand pattern is weak, and it may continue to fluctuate in the short term. Investors can pay attention to opportunities to go long on pullbacks [14]. - For coking coal and coke, they may continue to fluctuate in the medium term, and investors can pay attention to low - level buying opportunities [15]. - For ferroalloys, overall excess pressure continues, and after a decline, attention can be paid to long opportunities in the low - level range [17]. - For crude oil, the rebound is expected to continue, and investors can pay attention to long opportunities in the main contract [19][20]. - For fuel oil, the upside still has room, and investors can pay attention to long opportunities in the main contract [21][22]. - For polyolefins, cautious operations are recommended before the Spring Festival [24][25]. - For synthetic rubber, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [26][27]. - For natural rubber, control positions before the Spring Festival [28][30]. - For PVC, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [31][32]. - For urea, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [33][34]. - For PX, it may fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and cautious participation is recommended [35]. - For PTA, it may fluctuate in the short term, and 1 - 2 months are expected to see a slight inventory build - up. Cautious operations are recommended [36][37]. - For ethylene glycol, it may maintain a pattern of bottom - building fluctuations, and cautious operations are recommended [38]. - For short - fiber, trading is based on the cost - side logic before the Spring Festival, and cautious observation is recommended [39][41]. - For bottle chips, it is expected to follow the cost - side operation, and cautious participation is recommended before the Spring Festival [41]. - For soda ash, it should still be treated with caution [42]. - For glass, it is expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival [43]. - For caustic soda, it should be treated with caution, and attention should be paid to the risk of position transfer [44]. - For pulp, it is expected that the pre - holiday market will have limited fluctuations [45]. - For lithium carbonate, the downside support is still strong, but short - term fluctuations may increase [46]. - For copper, the price may be weakly adjusted before the Spring Festival [47][48]. - For aluminum, the price may be under pressure [49][50]. - For zinc, the price will enter an adjustment period [51][52][53]. - For lead, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [54][55]. - For tin, the price has support below, but short - term fluctuations may intensify [56]. - For nickel, the first - grade nickel is still in an oversupply pattern, and follow - up attention should be paid to relevant policies in Indonesia [57][58]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, for soybean meal, attention can be paid to long opportunities in the low - cost support range; for soybean oil, observation is recommended after the price leaves the low - cost range [59][60]. - For palm oil, attention can be paid to long opportunities after pullbacks [61][62]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, temporary observation is recommended [63][64]. - For cotton, it is expected that the medium - and long - term price will be strong, but there is pressure on the domestic market in the short term. Observation is recommended before the Spring Festival [65][67]. - For sugar, it is expected to be weak in the medium term [68][69][70]. - For apples, it is expected that the medium - and long - term price will be strong. Observation is recommended before the Spring Festival, and partial long positions can be taken after pullbacks [70][71]. - For live pigs, observation is recommended before the Spring Festival [72][73]. - For eggs, observation is recommended before the Spring Festival, and short positions can be taken at high prices after the festival [74]. - For corn and starch, corn starch may follow the corn market, and wait patiently for the release of post - holiday supply pressure [75][77]. - For logs, the future demand expectation is still weak, and the fundamentals are under pressure [78][79]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed with differentiated performance. The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 40.35 billion yuan on that day. China's January CPI and PPI data showed certain trends. The current macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. Treasury bond yields are at a relatively low level, and the Treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure [5][6]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is not strong, and corporate profit growth is at a low level. However, domestic asset valuations are at a low level, and the market sentiment has warmed up recently. It is expected that the volatility center of the stock index will gradually move up, and previous long positions can continue to be held. Attention should be paid to risk control during the Spring Festival [8][9]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The current global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. Central bank gold - buying behavior also supports the gold price. However, the recent sharp rise in precious metals has led to a significant increase in speculative sentiment, and market volatility is expected to increase [10]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated weakly. In the medium term, the price of finished products is dominated by the industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is declining year - on - year, and the market is in the off - season. The supply pressure still exists, and the inventory is higher than last year. The price may continue to fluctuate weakly, and investors can pay attention to opportunities to go long on pullbacks [11][12]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated and sorted. The demand for iron ore is at a low level, the supply is in a certain situation, and the port inventory is at the highest level in the same period in the past five years. The market supply - demand pattern is weak, and it may continue to fluctuate in the short term. Investors can pay attention to opportunities to go long on pullbacks [14]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to pull back. The supply of coking coal decreased, and the demand of downstream coke enterprises was cautious. The supply of coke was stable, but the demand was weak. They may continue to fluctuate in the medium term, and investors can pay attention to low - level buying opportunities [15]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures showed different trends. The supply of manganese ore is gradually recovering, and the cost of ferroalloys fluctuates in a narrow range at a low level. The production of ferroalloys is at a low level, the demand is weak, and the overall excess pressure continues. After a decline, attention can be paid to long opportunities in the low - level range [17]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated upward due to the repeated relationship between the US and Iran. Relevant data showed that speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options, and the number of active oil and gas rigs in the US increased. Geopolitical risks increased, and the rebound of crude oil is expected to continue. Investors can pay attention to long opportunities in the main contract [18][19][20]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated upward. The Asian fuel oil market is weak, but the cost - side crude oil rebound drives the fuel oil price to rise. The risk in Iran is unresolved, and there is still room for the upside of fuel oil. Investors can pay attention to long opportunities in the main contract [21][22]. Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the price of polyolefins showed certain trends. As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand in the market will be greatly reduced, while some suppliers still actively ship. Cautious operations are recommended before the Spring Festival [23][24][25]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. The raw material price rebounded, the supply capacity utilization rate was at a high level, the demand of tire enterprises decreased, and the inventory decreased but was still at a medium - high level. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [26][27]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. After the previous pullback, it showed a strong - side fluctuation before the Spring Festival. The supply is expected to shrink, and attention should be paid to the demand recovery after the festival. Control positions before the Spring Festival [28][30]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures rose. The price trend and inventory reduction speed depend on the demand recovery after the Spring Festival. The supply is at a high level, the demand is weak, and the cost supports the price. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [31][32]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures rose. The supply is at a high level, the demand is weakening, and the cost is stable. The inventory decreased slightly. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [33][34]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures rose. The PXN spread and short - process profit were slightly compressed, the operating rate increased slightly, and the cost - side crude oil may have a driving force. It may fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and cautious participation is recommended [35]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures rose. The supply side changed little, the demand side entered the Spring Festival holiday mode, and the cost - side support was limited. The processing fee was adjusted to the average level of previous years, and it may fluctuate in the short term. 1 - 2 months are expected to see a slight inventory build - up, and cautious operations are recommended [36][37]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. The overall load continued to rise, the port inventory continued to build up, the downstream polyester was in seasonal maintenance, and the terminal loom load dropped to the lowest point. It may maintain a pattern of bottom - building fluctuations, and cautious operations are recommended [38]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. As the Spring Festival approaches, the supply contracts, the terminal factory restocking decreases, and the loom load drops to the lowest point. The low inventory may provide bottom support. Trading is based on the cost - side logic before the Spring Festival, and cautious observation is recommended [39][41]. Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, bottle chip futures rose. The load decreased slightly, there will be concentrated production cuts around the Spring Festival, the supply is expected to shrink, the export growth rate increases, and it is expected to follow the cost - side operation. Cautious participation is recommended before the Spring Festival [41]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash futures closed flat. The fundamentals continued to be loose, the production decreased slightly, the inventory increased slightly, and the downstream demand was weak. It should still be treated with caution [42]. Glass - On the previous trading day, glass futures fell. The inventory of traders continued to build up, and the market was in a loose state. It is expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival [43]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures rose. The supply was at a high level, the inventory was at a high level historically, and the supply - demand contradiction was not alleviated. The short - term rise was due to the entry of futures - cash merchants, and it should be treated with caution, and attention should be paid to the risk of position transfer [44]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp futures rose. The inventory continued to build up, the domestic supply increased slightly, the downstream demand was divided, and the market was inactive. It is expected that the pre - holiday market will have limited fluctuations [45]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The domestic production resumption time in Jiangxi is still uncertain, the supply is in a tight - balance state, the demand of the energy - storage sector is prominent, and the inventory is gradually being depleted. The downside support is still strong, but short - term fluctuations may increase [46]. Copper - On the previous trading day, copper futures rose. The capital market risk preference decreased, the terminal and processing enterprises completed pre - holiday restocking, the smelting production was at a high level, and the inventory was in the seasonal build - up stage. The price may be weakly adjusted before the Spring Festival [47][48]. Aluminum - On the previous trading day, aluminum futures fell slightly, and alumina futures closed flat. The cost support of alumina is not strong, the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged, the aluminum production changes little, and the inventory build - up amplitude increases. The aluminum price may be under pressure [49][50]. Zinc - On the previous trading day, zinc futures fell slightly. The zinc market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, the traditional seasonal inventory build - up is late, and the price will enter an adjustment period [51][52][53]. Lead - On the previous trading day, lead futures rose slightly. The supply is expected to be loose after the festival, the demand is weak, and the inventory is steadily increasing. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [54][55]. Tin - On the previous trading day, tin futures rose. The mining end is affected by the conflict in Congo - Kinshasa, but the supply tightness is alleviated. The demand shows certain resilience. The price has support below, but short - term fluctuations may intensify [56]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, nickel futures rose. The production quota of the world's largest nickel mine may be significantly reduced, the cost is expected to rise, the policy risk in Indonesia increases, the downstream demand is weak, and the first - grade nickel is in an oversupply pattern. Follow - up attention should be paid to relevant policies in Indonesia [57][58]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, soybean meal futures rose, and soybean oil futures fell slightly. The export demand expectation is optimistic, but the record - high yield of Brazilian soybeans brings competition. The soybean supply is relatively loose, the demand for soybean meal continues to grow moderately, and the demand for soybean oil improves slightly. For soybean meal, attention can be paid to long opportunities in the low - cost support range; for soybean oil, observation is recommended after the price leaves the low - cost range [59][60]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil futures fell. The supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and the export volume decreased. The domestic inventory is at a medium - high level. It is recommended to pay attention to long opportunities after pullbacks [61][62]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed futures fluctuated. The planting area of rapeseed in Canada may be affected by profit concerns, and the domestic import policy and inventory situation are certain. Temporary observation is recommended [63][64]. Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures fluctuated. The USDA report is bearish in the short term. Although the domestic harvest is good, the inventory build - up is less than expected, and the future supply is expected to be tight. The downstream consumption is resilient. It is expected that the medium - and long - term price will be strong, but there is pressure on the domestic market in the short term. Observation is recommended before the Spring Festival [65][67]. Sugar - On the previous trading day, domestic sugar futures fluctuated. The global production increase expectation is strong, and the domestic market is under the pressure of domestic new sugar and imported sugar. It is expected to be weak in the medium term [68][69][70]. Apples - On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures fluctuated. The current market is in a vacuum period, and the inventory is at a low level in recent years. The new - season apple production and quality decline. It is expected that the medium - and long - term price will be strong. Observation is recommended before the Spring Festival, and partial long positions can be taken after pullbacks [70][71]. Live Pigs - On the previous trading day, live pig futures rose. The market supply exceeds demand, the consumption boost during the Spring Festival is limited, and the post - holiday supply may still face pressure. Observation is recommended before the Spring Festival [72][73]. Eggs - On the previous trading day, egg futures rose. The supply in February is expected to remain at a relatively high level, the pre - holiday stocking is over. Observation is recommended before the Spring Festival, and short positions can be

Market Overview - The three major indices in the A-share market rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by over 1.4% and surpassing 4100 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rising by over 2%, and the ChiNext Index increasing by nearly 3% [1][7] - Market trading volume increased compared to the previous Friday, indicating heightened investor activity [1][10] Government Policy and Economic Measures - The State Council held a meeting on February 6 to discuss policies for promoting effective investment, emphasizing the importance of investment in stabilizing economic growth and enhancing development momentum [2][8] - The meeting highlighted the need to innovate and improve policy measures, utilizing central budget investments, long-term special bonds, and local government bonds to support key areas such as infrastructure, urban renewal, public services, and emerging industries [2][8] - This signals an acceleration of investments related to national strategies and the "14th Five-Year Plan," which is expected to bolster macroeconomic stability and provide support for sectors like infrastructure construction, building materials, and major equipment [2][8] Foreign Exchange and Gold Reserves - As of the end of January, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $339.91 billion, an increase of $41.2 billion or 1.23% from December 2025 [2][9] - The People's Bank of China reported a gold reserve of 74.19 million ounces, with an increase of 40,000 ounces, marking the 15th consecutive month of gold accumulation [2][9] - The rise in foreign reserves reflects a stable international balance of payments and enhanced resilience against external shocks, providing a solid foundation for the stability of the RMB exchange rate [3][9] Regulatory Developments - On February 6, the People's Bank of China and eight other departments issued a notice to further prevent and manage risks associated with virtual currencies, categorizing related activities as illegal financial activities [3][9] - This regulatory upgrade aims to control the financial operations of virtual currencies domestically and isolate risks from traditional financial systems, facilitating the promotion and application of digital currencies [3][9] Market Performance - On February 9, the A-share market indices continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4123.09 points (up 1.41%), the Shenzhen Component Index at 14208.44 points (up 2.17%), and the ChiNext Index at 3332.77 points (up 2.98%) [4][10] - All sectors in the Shenwan first-level industry index experienced gains, with telecommunications, comprehensive, and media sectors leading the increases [4][10] Trading Volume and Margin Data - The market turnover reached 22,703.66 billion yuan, an increase from the previous trading day [6][11] - The margin trading balance reported on the previous Friday was 26,636.60 billion yuan, showing a decline from the previous trading day [6][11]