Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting government bonds to trade in a range [1][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal, range trading for rebar, and a strategy of shorting May and going long September for glass [1][8][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term range trading for copper, suggesting more observation for aluminum, moderately holding long positions on dips for nickel, range trading for tin, and both gold and silver expected to be in a strong - side oscillation, with lithium carbonate in a range oscillation [1][12][15] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Range trading for PVC, low - level oscillation for caustic soda, shorting on rallies for soda ash, going long on dips but not chasing highs for styrene and rubber, range trading for urea and methanol, and a strong - side oscillation for polyolefins [1][19][21] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Oscillating with a strong bias for cotton and cotton yarn, apples, and dates oscillating [1][29][30][32] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Caution against shorting the May contract of live pigs, with a strategy of shorting on rebounds; if the culling of laying hens does not accelerate, shorting on rebounds for near - month egg contracts; range trading for corn due to high short - term basis; shorting on rallies for soybean meal; and a strategy of going long on dips for soybean and palm oils as oils follow international crude oil in a strong - side oscillation [1][33][34][37] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts such as the Iran situation and trade policy uncertainties are impacting the financial and commodity markets, affecting the supply and demand and price trends of various commodities [6][13] - The supply and demand fundamentals of different industries are in a state of change, with some industries facing supply - side challenges, while others are affected by seasonal and policy factors [8][19][25] - The prices of most commodities are expected to show different trends, including oscillations, strong - side oscillations, and range trading, and investors should adopt corresponding trading strategies according to different market conditions [1] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Geopolitical conflicts may put pressure on stock indices in the short term, but they are bullish in the medium to long term, and investors are advised to buy on dips [6] - **Government Bonds**: With the release of policy signals and the approaching of the Two Sessions, government bonds are expected to oscillate with a strong bias [6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: After the Spring Festival, the coking coal market is weak and stable. Mines are resuming production, but trading is weak, and short - term trading is recommended [8] - **Rebar**: The rebar futures price is oscillating. It has a low static valuation and weak driving forces. It is expected to oscillate in the context of low - valuation and weak - driving, and range trading is recommended [8] - **Glass**: The glass market is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term fundamentals are deteriorating, and a strategy of shorting May and going long September is recommended [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Policy uncertainties and supply - demand contradictions coexist. The short - term price is expected to oscillate in the range of 98,000 - 106,000 yuan/ton, and range trading is recommended [12][13][14] - **Aluminum**: The supply expectation is improving, but the market sentiment for being bullish on non - ferrous metals remains. It is recommended to strengthen observation [15] - **Nickel**: Affected by the reduction of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia, the ore end has strong support, and it is recommended to moderately hold long positions on dips [16][17] - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream demand is in a state of rigid procurement. It is expected to oscillate with a strong bias, and range trading is recommended [17] - **Gold and Silver**: Due to geopolitical conflicts and the weakening of the US economic data, the mid - term price centers of gold and silver are moving up, and they are expected to oscillate with a strong bias. It is recommended to build long positions on dips after sufficient price corrections [18] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply disturbances reappear, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate with a strong bias, and range trading is recommended [19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, and the inventory is high. However, it has a low valuation, and range trading is recommended, focusing on policies and cost disturbances [19][21] - **Caustic Soda**: The demand support is weak, there is inventory pressure in the short term, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level, focusing on supply - side maintenance and downstream replenishment [21] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is in excess, the inventory pressure is increasing, and it is recommended to short on rallies [28][29] - **Styrene**: Supported by cost and with low inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival, it is expected to oscillate with a strong bias, and it is recommended to go long on dips but not chase highs [22][23] - **Rubber**: The supply of raw materials is shrinking, and there is a short - term upward expectation. It is recommended to go long on dips but not chase highs [23] - **Urea**: After the Spring Festival, the supply and demand are both increasing. The price is expected to be strong in March and may be under pressure later, and range trading is recommended [24][25] - **Methanol**: The war in Iran may cause a supply gap, and the price may be pushed up in the short term. The supply and demand are both at a relatively high level, and range trading is recommended [27] - **Polyolefins**: Affected by geopolitical conflicts and cost support, they are expected to oscillate with a strong bias, focusing on downstream demand and inventory [28] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The new - year global cotton supply and demand situation is changing, and the price is expected to oscillate with a strong bias after the festival [29] - **Apples**: The apple trading is stable, and the price is expected to oscillate with a strong bias [30][31] - **Dates**: The acquisition price of Xinjiang gray dates in the 2025 production season is in a certain range, and the price is expected to oscillate [32] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: In the short term, the pig price is oscillating at a low level, and the May contract is recommended to be shorted on rebounds. In the long term, the price may strengthen, but the increase is limited [33] - **Eggs**: The egg price has a bottom support, but the supply is sufficient, and if the culling does not accelerate, it is recommended to short on rebounds for near - month contracts [34] - **Corn**: The short - term price is in a range oscillation, and the medium - to long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, and range trading is recommended [35][36] - **Soybean Meal**: The domestic soybean meal price is under pressure, and it is recommended to short on rallies [37] - **Oils**: Oils are expected to oscillate with a strong bias following international crude oil, and it is recommended to go long on dips for soybean and palm oils [37][42]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is about the assessment of the aluminum market under the escalation of the Middle East situation, with a focus on potential supply disruptions and trading sentiment [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Overseas aluminum ingot pricing is expected to rise, and if the situation persists, the medium - term upward space overseas may be opened, with the possibility of reaching the high point during the 2022 Russia - Ukraine crisis. The internal - external price difference tends to positive arbitrage, London is stronger than Shanghai aluminum, and double - long positions can be taken. For the cross - variety of electrolytic aluminum and alumina, it is recommended to go long on the aluminum plant's profit, long AL and short AO [5] Group 4: Impact on Aluminum Industry Chain Impact on Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - The total electrolytic aluminum production in the Middle East accounts for about 9.4% of the global total, and the total alumina production accounts for about 3.2%. The export proportion of electrolytic aluminum in Middle Eastern countries is relatively high, with the combined export of multiple countries accounting for about 65.5% of their domestic production. It is estimated that the annual export volume affected is 4.6 million tons, and the monthly impact may be about 380,000 tons. If the strait is blocked for a long time, it will greatly affect the aluminum ingot supply market outside the Middle East [4] Impact on Raw Material Supply - Middle Eastern countries are highly dependent on overseas supplies for alumina and bauxite. If transportation channels are restricted, it will affect the production and supply capacity of electrolytic aluminum in the Middle East. Except for Saudi Arabia, countries such as the UAE and Iran have large alumina supply gaps [4] Impact on Global Alumina Supply - If the war lasts long and the main transportation routes are blocked, the alumina production in the Middle East will be affected, and it will be transmitted to the external supply capacity of electrolytic aluminum. There is a risk that the supply in other global regions may become redundant, leading to a decline in overseas alumina prices in some regions [5] Group 5: Option Strategies 场内期权 - The implied volatility premiums of call options for alumina and Shanghai aluminum are relatively high. A bull call spread structure can be considered for a long - position strategy with limited losses, and the strike price can be adjusted upward through rolling profit - taking to reduce the time - value cost of long - term option holding [7] 场外期权 - For industrial enterprises with a risk exposure to rising prices, it is recommended to arrange some circuit - breaker accumulator options to obtain an optimized hedging point when the market fluctuates and cash income when the market rises rapidly, providing a safety cushion for the subsequent hedging plan [9]

铝周报 2026/02/28 0755-23375135 wukjl@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 吴坤金（有色金属组） 地缘风险放大波动 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 05 供给端 02 期现市场 06 需求端 03 利润库存 07 进出口 04 成本端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 供应端：根据SMM调研数据，截止2026年1月底，国内电解铝运行产能约4499.6万吨；1月电解铝产量同比增长2.7%、环比增加0.5%。预计2月 运行产能保持相对稳定，部分新建电解铝项目逐渐爬产。2026年1月国内铝水比例环比下降4.4个百分点至72.1%，2月铝水比例预计继续下降， 节后首周铝水比例继续下滑。1月海外电解铝产量同比增长约1.9%。 ◆ 库存&现货：2月26日铝锭库存录得117.5万吨，较节前增加26.1万吨。保税区库存录得4.4万吨，环比微降。铝棒库存合计39.6万吨，较节前 增加8.6万吨。2月27日LME铝库存录得46.6万吨，周环比下滑。春节后国内华东铝锭现货基差下探，LME市场Cash/3M贴水缩窄。 ◆ 进出口： ...

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 证券代码：000807 证券简称：云铝股份 公告编号：2026-001 云南铝业股份有限公司 关于公司副总经理离任的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗 漏。 一、副总经理离任情况 宁德纲先生不存在应当履行而未履行的承诺事项。截至本公告披露日，宁德纲先生持有公司股份5,000 股，宁德纲先生承诺，将严格遵守《上市公司董事和高级管理人员所持本公司股份及其变动管理规 则》、《深圳证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第18号一一股东及董事、高级管理人员减持股份》等法 律法规中有关上市公司离任高管减持股份的规定。 宁德纲先生担任公司副总经理期间，恪尽职守，勤勉尽责，公司对宁德纲先生在任职期间对公司所做贡 献表示衷心感谢！ 二、备查文件 辞职报告。 2026年2月27日 近日，云南铝业股份有限公司（以下简称"云铝股份"或"公司"）董事会收到 宁德纲先生以书面形式提交的辞职报告，因工作变动，宁德纲先生辞去公司副总经理职务。宁德纲先生 担任公司副总经理的原定任期为2024年2月22日至2027年2月21日，根据《公司法》 ...

Group 1 - The city government emphasizes the importance of implementing Xi Jinping's important speech during his inspection of Guizhou, focusing on service support to assist enterprises in resuming production and achieving a strong start in the first quarter of the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] - Mayor Wang Hong visited key enterprises in Guiyang and Guian, including the Digital Economy Port project and various manufacturing companies, to understand their operational status and encourage innovation and market expansion [2] - The government aims to create favorable conditions for project construction and enterprise operations, ensuring that local departments provide attentive service to help businesses resume and reach full production capacity [2] Group 2 - Wang Hong visited multiple companies, including Guizhou Zhongguan Biotechnology Co., to discuss R&D progress and production plans, urging increased investment in innovation and faster technology transfer [2] - In the real estate sector, the government is focused on promoting the construction of quality, safe, and environmentally friendly housing to support the stable development of the real estate market in Guiyang and Guian [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company is committed to a development strategy focused on "high-end, intelligent, and green" initiatives, aiming to enhance its product offerings and market position in high-growth sectors such as low-altitude economy and new energy [2] Group 1: Development Strategy - The company is advancing key projects like the "72,000 tons aluminum-based new materials intelligent manufacturing project" and the "automotive and green energy aluminum industrial park" [2] - The focus is on developing higher strength and precision aluminum alloy materials to meet the demands of emerging industries [2] Group 2: Market Positioning - The company leverages its leading position in recycled aluminum applications to cater to the growing need for green and low-carbon materials in new sectors [2] - Continuous technological innovation and forward-looking planning are emphasized to enhance product value and strengthen brand competitiveness [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Ming Tai Aluminum, is positioned as a leader in the recycled aluminum industry, emphasizing its full industry chain from raw material recovery to deep processing, which significantly reduces energy consumption compared to primary aluminum [2] Group 1: Industry Positioning - Ming Tai Aluminum has established a closed-loop full industry chain that includes "raw material recovery - melting and recycling - deep processing," which saves 95% of energy consumption compared to primary aluminum [2] - The company is expected to continue benefiting from a green premium as it advances its high-end projects [2] Group 2: Future Projects and Financial Strategy - The company is launching high-end projects such as Hongsheng New Materials' "automotive and green energy aluminum industrial park" and Yirui New Materials' "720,000 tons aluminum-based new materials intelligent manufacturing project" [2] - With the gradual production of these projects, capital expenditures are expected to decrease, and the company has committed to increasing its cash dividend ratio to promote a return to a reasonable valuation level [2]

Core Insights - The article highlights the rise of Zheng Shuliang, an 80-year-old entrepreneur, who has become the new richest woman in China with a wealth of $32.7 billion, largely due to the booming aluminum industry [2][3]. Company Insights - Zheng Shuliang leads China Hongqiao, the world's largest producer of electrolytic aluminum, which has seen its stock price surge from HKD 5 at the beginning of 2024 to HKD 40, an increase of 8 times [4]. - The growth of China Hongqiao is driven by high demand and effective cost control, with the national electrolytic aluminum production capacity reaching 44.59 million tons by the end of 2025, operating at nearly 99% capacity [6]. - The price of aluminum is projected to rise from CNY 18,000 per ton in 2023 to over CNY 24,000 per ton by 2026, benefiting companies like China Hongqiao [6]. - China Hongqiao has achieved significant profit growth, with a revenue increase of 16.9% year-on-year in 2024, and net profit nearly doubling to CNY 22.37 billion [8][9]. - The company maintains a competitive edge by building its own power plants and optimizing logistics, resulting in lower production costs compared to industry averages [7]. Industry Insights - The aluminum industry is experiencing a super cycle, leading to substantial wealth creation and the emergence of new billionaires [15]. - The market dynamics are shifting, with increased demand from sectors such as photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and AI computing centers driving aluminum prices higher [6]. - Analysts predict that China Hongqiao's net profits will continue to grow, with estimates of CNY 18.68 billion, CNY 25.30 billion, and CNY 27.18 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [14].

宏观层面，全球聚焦日内瓦美伊核谈判，地缘变化或致油市和金属市场波动；美股纳斯达克因英伟达财 报不佳大跌并拖累全球股市走软，市场风险偏好骤降，施压有色金属板块；今日关注美国 21:30 公布的 PPI 数据，金融市场普遍预期美联储 3 月会议维持利率不变；国内宏观政策氛围乐观，房地产政策陆续 推出，全国人大会议下月初召开，需关注两会政策指引及布局行情。 上海期货价格走势：今日铸造铝合金主力月2603合约偏弱震荡，临近收盘逆转跌势以小阳线结束白盘交 易；截止当日15：00收盘，铸造铝主力合约报22730元，涨5元，涨幅0.02%，全天成交量9812手减少 907手；持仓量7920手减少2010手。 据长江有色金属网数据统计，2月27日长江现货数据显示，铝合金ADC12报价23500-23700元/吨，均价 报23600元/吨，持平；铸造铝合金锭(A356.2)报价25500-25900元/吨，均价报25700元/吨，跌100元；铸 造铝合金锭(A380）报价25000-25200元/吨，均价报25100元/吨，持平；铸造铝合金锭(ZL102)报价 25000-25200元/吨，均价报25100元/吨，跌100元； ...

国内方面，央行上海总部1月金融数据显示，住户部门贷款增加超333亿元，其中中长期贷款增加315.75 亿元，反映居民住房按揭需求回暖。上海"沪七条"楼市新政落地首日，银行房贷业务咨询量明显增多， 该政策涵盖降低购房门槛、放宽套数限制、提高公积金贷款额度、优化房产税等。 基本面方面，国内节后产业氛围欠佳，下游开工率低，电解铝运行产能高，铝锭社库增加、铝水比例降 至年内低位，供应上升且需求恢复尚需时日，预计"金三银四"前社会库存将继续累积，铝价上行承压。 今日现货市场成交一般，部分持货商周末前加大出货，挺价意愿弱化，部分仍看好后市；下游逢低压价 刚需接货。午后期盘弱势，持货商跟盘调价，市场出少接多，部分买方逢低补货。 综合来看，大宗商品市场情绪温和，后续关注国内重要会议前政策导向。社会库存持续累积，需求端恢 复时效待定，预计短时铝价在23400 - 24000元/吨窄幅波动。 长江有色金属网www.ccmn.cn 电话：0592-5668838 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 CCMN国际市场：今日伦铝探底回升，LME三个月北京时间14：55报于3164美元/吨，较上一交易日结 算价涨22.5美元/吨，涨 ...