Core Viewpoint - Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co., Ltd. announced that its subsidiary, Liaoning Chaoyang Zhengbang Ecological Agriculture Co., Ltd., has entered a restructuring process as per the court's decision, which may impact the company's assets and profits [2][3][7]. Group 1: Court Decision and Restructuring - On September 4, 2025, the Chaoyang Intermediate People's Court accepted the restructuring application filed by creditor Zhang Xiuchun against Chaoyang Zhengbang [2][3]. - The court appointed Beijing Qinglv (Shanghai) Law Firm as the restructuring manager for Chaoyang Zhengbang [6]. - The restructuring was initiated due to Chaoyang Zhengbang's inability to repay due debts and its lack of repayment capacity, although it possesses high restructuring value [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Situation of Chaoyang Zhengbang - As of December 31, 2024, Chaoyang Zhengbang had total assets of 332.23 million yuan, total liabilities of 459.77 million yuan, and a net asset deficit of 127.54 million yuan [5]. - For the year 2024, the company reported revenue of 197,900 yuan and a net loss of 5.09 million yuan [5]. - By June 30, 2025, the total assets were reported at 318.70 million yuan, with total liabilities of 469.49 million yuan and a net asset deficit of 150.79 million yuan [5]. Group 3: Responsibilities of the Restructuring Manager - The restructuring manager is responsible for managing the debtor's assets, investigating the financial status, and making decisions regarding the debtor's operations and expenditures [6]. - The manager must report to the court and is subject to supervision by the creditors' meeting and committee [6]. Group 4: Potential Impact of Restructuring - Successful restructuring of Chaoyang Zhengbang could improve its asset-liability structure and enhance operational management [7]. - The company will continue to monitor the situation and fulfill its information disclosure obligations as required [7].

Sales Performance - In August 2025, the company sold a total of 108,000 pigs, which includes 66,800 commercial pigs, 40,100 piglets, and 800 breeding pigs [1] - The sales revenue from pig sales amounted to 121.065 million yuan, with an average selling price of 13.84 yuan per kilogram for commercial pigs [1] Data Disclosure - The sales data provided does not include figures from the company's affiliated companies and is unaudited, indicating potential discrepancies with regular reports [2]

Sales Performance - In August 2025, the company reported a sales revenue of 121.065 million yuan from pig sales, with an average selling price of 13.84 yuan per kilogram [1] - The sales volume of pigs for the month was not specified in terms of quantity but is included in the overall sales revenue [1] - The disclosed sales data does not include figures from the company's affiliated companies and is unaudited, indicating potential discrepancies with periodic report disclosures [1] Market Conditions - The company highlights that the sales data pertains solely to its livestock farming business, excluding other business operations [1] - Significant fluctuations in pig market prices could have a substantial impact on the company's operational performance, which is a point of caution for investors [1]

Group 1 - Yunnan Juxing Breeding Technology Co., Ltd. was established on September 2, with a registered capital of 5 million RMB [1] - The legal representative of the company is Ren Jianming, and its business scope includes feed production, livestock breeding, and breeding of livestock and poultry [1] - The company is wholly owned by Juxing Agriculture and Animal Husbandry (603477) [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the meat, egg, and dairy markets are under pressure, with pork prices unlikely to rise significantly in the fourth quarter due to excess supply and weak demand [2] - The egg market is experiencing a similar situation, with high production capacity leading to an oversupply, making it difficult for egg prices to increase this year [4][6] - As of the end of July, the national laying hen inventory was at 1.293 billion, a historical high, contributing to the downward pressure on egg prices [4] Group 2 - The reluctance of producers to reduce capacity is evident, as they are waiting for others to exit the market instead of taking proactive measures themselves [6] - The cold storage of eggs, which were held back during low prices, is adding additional pressure as these eggs are nearing expiration and will soon enter the market [6][8] - Overall consumer spending remains weak, and the low prices of pork and chicken are further limiting the demand for eggs, making it challenging for the egg industry to recover [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The net profit for 2025 was BRL 180 million, down from BRL 288 million in the previous year [44] - Adjusted EBITDA for the period was BRL 167 million, representing a 4% decrease compared to the previous period [46] - The company experienced a significant impact from increased interest rates, resulting in a negative financial result of BRL 80 million [47][48] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company sold farms generating BRL 40 million in revenue, compared to BRL 120 million previously [2] - The gross result from sugarcane was BRL 86 million, with a margin returning to historical levels around 30% [54] - The gross result from soy was BRL 76 million, maintaining a margin of 86% despite a 7% decrease in price compared to the previous year [53] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted a recovery in cattle raising, selling an asset for BRL 140 million, significantly higher than the BRL 10 million investment [4] - The company reported a decrease in cotton production by 38% due to severe drought conditions in Paraguay [27] - The average selling price for soy was around $10.70, with a notable increase in margins compared to previous periods [41] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company emphasized its intrinsic characteristic of selling farms as a core part of its business model [2][5] - There is a focus on diversifying crops and regions to mitigate operational and commercial risks [4] - The company is investing in technology and operational efficiency, including the establishment of a centralized operational hub for better monitoring [36][38] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the recovery of internal bases for soy, despite geopolitical challenges [13] - There is a concern about tighter margins in the coming years due to high production costs and market volatility [35][77] - The company is preparing for potential fluctuations in exchange rates and their impact on margins [72][74] Other Important Information - The company plans to distribute dividends of BRL 5 million, the lowest in the last five years, reflecting a cautious approach to capital allocation [59] - The company has a net debt of BRL 785 million, indicating a healthy balance sheet despite the challenging environment [56] Q&A Session Summary Question: Margin expectations and visibility in the market - Management highlighted the need for discipline among farmers due to expected margin compression in the coming years [71][72] Question: Discrepancies in land appraisal values - Management explained that internal appraisals are conservative compared to external evaluations, influenced by market conditions and interest rates [63][66] Question: Transformation of agricultural areas - The company noted a decrease in transformed areas due to rising costs and market conditions, with a focus on maintaining profitability [83][84]

Group 1 - The China Livestock Breeding Index (930707) increased by 0.65% as of September 4, 2025, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as Xiaoming Co. (300967) up 10.57%, Tianma Technology (603668) up 3.97%, and Minhe Livestock (002234) up 3.41% [1] - The price of white feather chicken seedlings surged, with Yisheng Co. reporting a price of 4.2 yuan per chick on August 11, 2025, an increase of 180% compared to early July [1] - The industry is experiencing strong demand for chicken seedlings, with orders booked until early October, driven by supply constraints from previous capacity reductions and seasonal factors [1] Group 2 - The livestock ETF closely tracks the China Livestock Breeding Index, which includes listed companies involved in livestock feed, veterinary drugs, and livestock farming [2] - As of August 29, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Livestock Breeding Index accounted for 65.57% of the index, including companies like Muyuan Foods (002714) and Wens Foodstuff Group (300498) [2]

Core Viewpoint - The acquisition of *ST Tianshan by Xiamen Shed is a significant event marking the end of the "Zhongzhi System" control, with the new owner facing severe operational challenges and potential delisting risks [2][3][7]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - Xiamen Shed acquired 22.11% of *ST Tianshan's shares and a debt claim of 76.49 million yuan for a total of 287 million yuan [2][3]. - The acquisition signifies the end of the Zhongzhi System's control over *ST Tianshan, which had been struggling with debt issues since 2021 [3][4]. - Xiamen Shed was established in May 2021 with a registered capital of 30 million yuan and is part of the Xiamen Gude Industrial Group [4]. Group 2: Financial and Operational Challenges - *ST Tianshan has faced three consecutive years of negative net profit, with a significant decline in revenue and ongoing losses in the first half of 2025 [7][10]. - The company reported a net profit of -65.94 million yuan and revenue of 92.28 million yuan for 2025, leading to a risk warning and potential delisting [7][10]. - In the first half of 2025, *ST Tianshan's livestock sales were dismal, with only 126 heads sold, indicating severe operational difficulties [10]. Group 3: Capital Operations and Future Prospects - The acquisition of *ST Tianshan coincided with Xiamen Shed's indirect acquisition of Shenzhen Chisu Automation Equipment Co., suggesting potential future asset injections [6][7]. - The rapid succession of capital operations raises questions about Xiamen Shed's intentions and the strategic direction for *ST Tianshan [6][7]. - The new ownership faces the urgent task of stabilizing *ST Tianshan's financial situation while navigating the complexities of potential asset integration [7][10].

Group 1 - The board of directors of Xinjiang Tianshan Animal Husbandry Biotechnology Co., Ltd. held its second temporary meeting of 2025 on September 3, 2025, via communication methods, with all procedures complying with relevant laws and regulations [1][2] - The board approved a proposal to accept a non-interest-bearing loan from the controlling shareholder, Xiamen Shed Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd., amounting to a total of up to 80 million yuan, with a term of 18 months [1][2] - The voting results for the proposal were unanimous, with 5 votes in favor, 0 against, and 0 abstentions [2] Group 2 - The loan agreement will be signed between the company, its wholly-owned subsidiary Tongliao Tianshan Animal Husbandry Co., Ltd., and the controlling shareholder, indicating a strategic financial support for operational needs [1] - The loan will have a zero percent interest rate, which may enhance the company's liquidity without incurring additional financial costs [1]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Coal Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model estimates monthly revenue and profit growth rates for the coal industry based on changes in price and capacity factors[10][15] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The pricing mechanism is determined by the last price index of the previous month, which sets the sales price for the next month[10] 2. The model uses year-on-year changes in price factors and capacity factors to estimate revenue and profit growth rates on a monthly basis[10] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to track and predict industry profitability trends, but it is sensitive to price fluctuations and external shocks[15] 2. Model Name: Hog Supply-Demand Gap Estimation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model predicts the supply-demand gap for hogs six months in advance based on the relationship between sow inventory and hog slaughter rates[16][17] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model assumes a stable proportional relationship between quarterly hog slaughter and sow inventory lagged by six months[16] 2. The formula for the slaughter coefficient is: $ \text{Slaughter Coefficient} = \frac{\text{Quarterly Hog Slaughter}}{\text{Sow Inventory (Lagged 6 Months)}} $[16] 3. The potential supply six months later is calculated as: $ \text{Potential Supply (t+6)} = \text{Sow Inventory (t)} \times \text{Slaughter Coefficient (t+6)} $[17] 4. The potential demand six months later is estimated using historical quarterly slaughter data[17] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies hog price cycles but relies heavily on the accuracy of historical slaughter coefficients[17] 3. Model Name: Steel Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model predicts monthly profit growth and per-ton profitability for the steel industry by integrating steel prices and raw material costs[19] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model incorporates comprehensive steel prices and costs of raw materials such as iron ore, coke, pulverized coal, and scrap steel[19] 2. Monthly profit growth rates and per-ton profitability are calculated based on these inputs[19] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a detailed view of profitability trends but may not fully capture external demand-side factors[23] 4. Model Name: Glass and Cement Industry Profitability Tracking Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model tracks profitability changes in the glass and cement industries using price and cost indicators, and generates allocation signals based on these changes[25] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model monitors price and cost indicators to assess profitability trends[25] 2. It incorporates manufacturing PMI and real estate sales data to evaluate macroeconomic impacts on industry expectations[25] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is useful for identifying short-term profitability trends but may be limited by the lag in macroeconomic data updates[26] 5. Model Name: Refining and Oilfield Services Profitability Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model estimates profit growth and cracking spreads for the refining industry based on changes in fuel prices, crude oil prices, and new drilling activity[27] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model calculates profit growth rates using changes in fuel and crude oil prices[27] 2. Cracking spreads are derived from the difference between product prices and raw material costs[27] 3. Allocation signals are generated based on oil price trends and drilling activity[27] - **Model Evaluation**: The model captures key profitability drivers but may not fully account for geopolitical risks affecting oil prices[34][35] --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. Coal Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Excess Return**: The coal industry underperformed the Wind All-A Index by -9.8% in August 2025[10] 2. Hog Supply-Demand Gap Estimation Model - **Supply-Demand Balance**: The potential supply for Q1 2026 is estimated at 19,380 million heads, while the demand is forecasted at 19,476 million heads, indicating a slightly tight balance[18] 3. Steel Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Profit Growth**: The steel industry is predicted to achieve positive year-on-year profit growth in August 2025[23] 4. Glass and Cement Industry Profitability Tracking Model - **Glass Industry**: Profit margins continued to decline year-on-year in August 2025, but the rate of decline narrowed[26] - **Cement Industry**: Profitability slightly declined year-on-year in August 2025[26] 5. Refining and Oilfield Services Profitability Model - **Refining Industry**: Profit growth for August 2025 is predicted to be positive[28] - **Oilfield Services**: Oil prices in August 2025 were lower than the previous year, and drilling activity remained stable, leading to a neutral allocation signal[35]