专题报告：中国 LNG 供需概况 广发期货研究所 研究通讯 2025 年 12 月 31 日星期三 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 摘要： 我们在之前的天然气专题报告里，对中国天然气国内供需情况与 进出口格局进行了详细的介绍与分析，尽管气态天然气和液化天然气 （LNG）的主要区别在于物理状态的不同，但在来源、运输以及消费 结构等方面，两者却有着显著区别，因此，本篇报告将聚焦中国液化天 然气的供需概况。 供应来看，中国 LNG 的实际供应量由国内液化天然气工厂的产量 和接收站槽批量组成，随着国内天然气产量和进口管道气持续增加， 且国内液化天然气工厂产能不断扩张，国内 LNG 产量持续增长，同时 进口 LNG 性价比降低，接收站槽批量承压，使得目前国内 LNG 产量 占据了中国 LNG 实际总供应的主导地位。目前中国液化天然气工厂分 布广泛，主要集中在西北、华北和西南地区，布局与国内资源禀赋高度 契合，且工厂气源以管道气与焦炉煤气为主。 需求来看，中国 LNG 实际消费量与实际供应量呈同向变化，主要 原因是中国 LNG 主要消费地与主要供应地高度重合 ...

欧洲天然气期货价格自月初以来一直窄幅震荡，交易员们权衡着强劲的供应和寒冷天气带来的影响，价 格趋于稳定。天然气价格徘徊在每兆瓦时28欧元附近，预计今年结束将下跌约40%，这将是自2023年以 来最大的年度跌幅。此前，由于燃料库存低于正常水平，市场一度预期冬季将面临严峻挑战，而如今的 走势与预期形成鲜明对比。截至发稿，作为欧洲天然气基准的荷兰2月份交割天然气期货价格上涨 1.1%，至每兆瓦时27.84欧元。 供暖季开局相对温和，挪威天然气供应稳定，液化天然气进口量增加，这些因素共同缓解了市场压力， 也表明自四年前的能源危机以来，市场已取得了长足的进步。据国际能源署预测，今年欧洲液化天然气 进口量有望创下历史新高。 新年假期前的周三，交易量较为清淡。在天气方面，欧洲部分地区对1月中旬的气温预测有所下降，模 型显示，西北欧地区的气温将持续低于正常水平。而天然气库存水平下滑至63%，五年平均季节库存水 平为74%。电力问题仍影响天然气输送。 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the impact of a cold wave on energy demand across China, prompting swift actions from local authorities and energy companies to ensure stable energy supply and maintain warmth for households during winter [1] - The increasing winter electricity load in China has reached new highs, emphasizing the importance of energy supply stability to support economic and social development [1] - Coal, natural gas, and renewable energy sources are being utilized to enhance energy supply, ensuring reliable heating for both businesses and households [1] Group 2 - In Inner Mongolia, a coal mine has implemented autonomous mining trucks and smart loading technologies to improve safety and efficiency, achieving a coal production of 16.33 million tons and a transportation efficiency of 1,885 tons per hour [2] - As of November 2025, national railways have transported 184 million tons of coal, with electric coal accounting for 128 million tons, maintaining a high level of supply [2] - In Jiangsu, a pumped storage power station is operational, capable of generating over 1.8 billion kilowatt-hours of green electricity annually, contributing to flexible energy supply management [2] Group 3 - A power plant in Beijing has launched a new gas turbine intake temperature adjustment system, enhancing energy efficiency and contributing to a greener heating network [3] - The article discusses the challenges posed by extreme winter weather on coal transportation and renewable energy generation, highlighting the need for improved energy supply security [3] - Recommendations include accelerating the construction of ultra-high voltage projects, developing new energy storage solutions, and utilizing AI and big data to enhance grid management and operational efficiency [3]

Group 1 - The Yantai Port West Area LNG project has successfully completed its main engineering phase, marking a significant milestone for national energy security and regional green transformation [1] - The total investment for the first phase of the LNG project is 8.316 billion yuan, with a designed throughput of 5.9 million tons per year and a maximum gasification output capacity of 40 million cubic meters per day [1] - Key construction components include five 200,000 cubic meter full containment storage tanks, one 266,000 cubic meter unloading terminal, and one 50,000 cubic meter loading terminal, along with supporting process facilities [1] Group 2 - The project is now entering pre-commissioning preparations such as nitrogen replacement and precooling, aiming for the first LNG ship connection by 2026 [1] - The supporting terminal construction has also completed initial quality verification, with significant progress made in overcoming technical challenges [1] - The construction team has completed 382 steel pipe piles and 108 cast-in-place piles, along with 414 prefabricated components, ensuring reliable port infrastructure for LNG transport [1] Group 3 - A 3,183.2-meter long breakwater project is advancing towards the deep sea, enhancing the project's protection [2] - The contractor, China Communications Construction Company, is utilizing a "100-day attack" labor competition to innovate management and optimize construction plans [2] - As of now, 523 meters of the breakwater have been successfully extended into the deep sea, with overall project progress exceeding 60% [2]

Resource Reserves - The distribution of fossil energy resources is uneven, with the US, Russia, Australia, and China holding over 60% of global coal reserves. Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, and Canada account for 44.4% of global oil reserves, while Russia, Iran, and Qatar dominate natural gas reserves with over 50% [1] - In critical minerals for renewable energy, the Democratic Republic of the Congo monopolizes over 55% of global cobalt reserves, while Chile and Australia together hold over 58% of lithium reserves. China leads in rare earth reserves with a 48.3% share [1] Energy Consumption - Global primary energy consumption is projected to reach 636.25 exajoules in 2024, with China leading at 27.7%, followed by the US and India. Fossil fuels (oil, natural gas, and coal) still dominate, accounting for over 80% of consumption, but renewable energy's share is increasing from 8.15% in 2023 to 8.94% in 2024 [1] - China leads in solar and wind energy consumption, each exceeding 38%, with the US as the second-largest consumer of renewable energy [1] Energy Production - The energy production landscape remains stable, with China, the US, India, and Russia as the main producers. The total global primary energy supply is expected to be 592.22 exajoules in 2024, with fossil fuels still predominant, although renewable energy production is growing rapidly [2] - Coal-fired power generation's share has decreased to 33.96%, but it remains the primary method of electricity generation, with China accounting for 33.32% of global electricity production [2] Greenhouse Gas Emissions - Global energy-related CO2 emissions are projected to reach 1.9066 billion tons in 2024, with China, the US, and India being the major emitters. The scale of CCUS (Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage) is expanding, expected to reach 5.7824 million tons per year [2] Hydrogen and Energy Storage - Global hydrogen production capacity is steadily increasing, projected to reach 4.2766 million tons per year in 2024, with blue hydrogen accounting for 90.7% and green hydrogen for 9.3% [2] - The battery storage system for grid-level applications is expected to reach 126.14 million kilowatts in 2024, with China leading at 59.6% [2] Energy Prices - Energy prices are showing significant fluctuations, with coal, crude oil, and natural gas prices expected to decline compared to 2023. The prices of lithium carbonate have dropped significantly, while cobalt prices are steadily decreasing, contributing to lower battery costs and supporting the development of the renewable energy industry [3]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by Xin'ao Co., Ltd. regarding the privatization of Xin'ao Energy and its subsequent listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has completed a significant prerequisite by registering with the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, marking a step towards enhancing its strategic positioning as a leader in the global energy transition [1] Group 1: Transaction Details - The privatization plan has received over 99.9% approval from Xin'ao Co., Ltd. shareholders and has completed the filing process with the National Development and Reform Commission in August [1] - The registration with the State Administration of Foreign Exchange signifies that all necessary approvals for foreign direct investment have been completed, with two out of four prerequisites now fulfilled [1] Group 2: Strategic Implications - The transaction aims to leverage synergies in business integration, capital operations, and corporate governance, reinforcing the company's strategic positioning as an integrated natural gas industry chain operator [1] - The planned listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is intended to provide liquidity support for the privatization of Xin'ao Energy through a "H-share + cash" compensation method, which will also facilitate the integration of upstream and downstream business resources in the natural gas sector [1]

12月31日，新天绿能跌1.1%，截至发稿，报7.19元/股，成交2883.89万元，换手率0.17%，总市值324.46 亿元。新天绿能股价已经连续3天下跌，区间累计跌幅2.28%。 资料显示，新天绿色能源股份有限公司位于河北省石家庄市裕华西路9号裕园广场A座,香港尖沙咀海港 城英国保诚保险大厦2104-05，成立日期2010年2月9日，上市日期2020年6月29日，公司主营业务涉及新 天绿色能源股份有限公司是一家主要从事天然气销售和风力发电的公司。该公司经营三个分部。天然气 分部向城市燃气公司和工业客户销售天然气和天然气用具。该分部同时从事天然气管道建造和天然气管 道接驳服务。风电及太阳能分部主要从事开发、管理和运营风电场和太阳能电站，并向电网公司销售电 力。其他分部从事房屋和设备的租赁。主营业务收入构成为：天然气销售收入67.46%，风力、光伏发 电收入30.88%，其他0.93%，接驳及建设燃气管网收入0.56%，租赁及设备使用服务收入0.17%。 从新天绿能十大流通股东角度 风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型自动发布，任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不 限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cautious bearish outlook on crude oil, natural gas [2][7] - Short - term bearish rebound expected in LPG, L, PP, PVC, asphalt, glass, soda ash [2][7] - Suggests callback buying opportunities for PTA, methanol, urea [31][37][41] - Recommends rebound short - selling for MEG [34] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil prices will oscillate in a range due to geopolitical uncertainties and supply surplus [2] - LPG prices will strengthen in the short - term due to cost - side support but trend downwards in the long - term [2] - PTA offers callback buying opportunities as its short - term supply - demand balance is tight [31] - MEG is expected to accumulate inventory, and investors should look for rebound short - selling opportunities [34] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices slightly declined, with WTI down 0.22%, Brent down 0.26%, and SC up 0.69% [10] - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical factors in South America may boost prices in the short - term, but supply surplus in the off - season exerts downward pressure [11] - **Fundamentals**: Supply is affected by US interception of Venezuelan oil tankers, and demand in Japan increased in November. US inventories rose in the week ending December 19 [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the SC range of [430 - 440] [13] LPG - **Market Performance**: On December 30, the PG main contract closed at 4092 yuan/ton, up 0.52% [16] - **Basic Logic**: Saudi's CP contract price increase boosts prices in the short - term, and supply and demand show certain resilience [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the PG range of [4000 - 4100] [18] L - **Market Performance**: L05 closed at 6461 yuan/ton, up 0.1% [20] - **Basic Logic**: It follows market sentiment in the short - term, with weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions before the holiday and wait for rebound short - selling opportunities. Focus on the L range of [6350 - 6500] [22] PP - **Market Performance**: PP05 closed at 6321 yuan/ton, up 0.7% [24] - **Basic Logic**: Cost strengthens in January, and the industry chain faces high inventory - reduction pressure [26] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions before the holiday and wait for rebound short - selling opportunities. Focus on the PP range of [6250 - 6400] [26] PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 closed at 4810 yuan/ton, up 0.7% [28] - **Basic Logic**: Cost support strengthens, but high inventory restricts the rebound space [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take partial profit on long positions, wait for inventory reduction for long - term long positions, and conduct hedging for industrial customers. Focus on the V range of [4700 - 4900] [30] PTA - **Market Performance**: TA05 closed at 5280 yuan/ton [31] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - demand is tight in the short - term, but there is a risk of negative feedback from the demand side [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for callback buying opportunities for TA05 in the range of [5080 - 5190] [33] MEG - **Market Performance**: EG05 closed at 3686 yuan/ton [34] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic production capacity increases, demand is expected to weaken, and inventory is expected to accumulate [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions and look for rebound short - selling opportunities for EG05 in the range of [3780 - 3880] [36] Methanol - **Market Performance**: Not specifically mentioned [39] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure exists, demand is slightly weak, and cost support is weak [39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for callback buying opportunities for MA05 in the range of [2210 - 2250] [40] Urea - **Market Performance**: UR05 closed at 1697 yuan/ton [41] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is expected to increase, but the arbitrage window between domestic and overseas markets remains open [42] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for callback buying opportunities for UR05 in the range of [1725 - 1755] [44] LNG - **Market Performance**: On December 29, the NG main contract closed at 4.687 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 7.35% [46] - **Basic Logic**: Demand support weakens, and supply is relatively abundant [47] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the NG range of [3.727 - 4.160] [47] Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On December 30, the BU main contract closed at 3038 yuan/ton, up 1.00% [49] - **Basic Logic**: It is mainly affected by crude oil prices, and supply and demand are relatively loose [50] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions. Focus on the BU range of [3000 - 3100] [51] Glass - **Market Performance**: FG05 closed at 1087 yuan/ton, up 3.4% [53] - **Basic Logic**: Cold - repair expectations support prices, and supply and demand are weak [55] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long in the short - term and wait for rebound short - selling opportunities in the long - term. Focus on the FG range of [1070 - 1120] [55] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: SA05 closed at 1213 yuan/ton, up 2.7% [57] - **Basic Logic**: It rebounds following glass prices, with stable supply and weak demand [59] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for rebound short - selling opportunities. Focus on the SA range of [1200 - 1240] [59]

来源：中国能源报 11月25日，第七届中俄能源商务论坛在北京举办。能源是中俄经贸合作领域的压舱石。我国已连续多年 成为俄罗斯最大的贸易伙伴，俄罗斯也是我国重要的能源供应国。过去一年，中俄两国推动深化能源合 作成果，在传统化石能源领域成果丰硕，在绿色发展、新能源与技术创新领域合作提速。 中俄原油贸易保持稳中有增。2024年，中俄原油贸易额为4441亿元人民币，占俄罗斯对华出口贸易总额 的比重高达48.3%；我国从俄罗斯进口原油总量达1.08亿吨，同比增长1%，进口量约占我国原油进口总 量的19.6%。 中俄天然气贸易逐年上升。2024年，中俄天然气贸易额928亿元，占俄罗斯对华出口总额的10.1%。其 中，液化天然气356亿元，占对华出口总额的3.9%；管道天然气572亿元，占对华出口总额的6.2%。 中俄煤炭贸易略有下降。2024年，我国自俄罗斯煤炭进口额777亿元人民币，进口量9509.3万吨。俄罗 斯已成为我国煤炭供应重要新增来源。来自俄罗斯的煤炭进口份额从2019年的11%跃升至2023年的 22%，2024年占比下降到17%。 中俄在绿色领域发展战略契合度高，具有互补性。我国和俄罗斯均已设立2060年 ...

Oil holding gains as traders weigh geopolitical tensions from Venezuela to Russia and Iran against concerns about a global glut out there. Joining us now is Regina mayer, global head of clients and markets at KPMG. Regina, what's the what are your clients down in the oilpatch saying these days with WTI crude oil, you know, below $60, they can't be too happy about that.Well, I think they're actually planning for a lower for longer scenario, Paul. And and they've baked in 60 or below into their budgets. They' ...