| 玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/7/28 | | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/7/25 周度变化 日度变化 | 2025/7/18 | 2025/7/24 | | | | | 2025/7/18 | 2025/7/24 | | 2025/7/25 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河安全 5mm大 板 | 1160.0 | 1250.0 | 1301.0 | 141.0 | 51.0 | FG09合约 | 1081.0 | 1307.0 | 1362.0 | 281.0 | 55.0 | | 沙河长城 5mm大板 | 1164.0 | 1258.0 | 1297.0 | 133.0 | 39.0 | FG01合约 | 1165.0 | 1402.0 | 1426.0 | 261.0 | 24.0 | | 沙河5mm ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core Viewpoints - The anti - involution expectation may fluctuate between continuation and cooling, and market sentiment is also volatile. The futures market is expected to continue to fluctuate between reality and expectation. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and short - term sentiment changes. As August approaches, the 09 contract will follow the delivery logic [2]. - For glass, the supply end daily melting volume has slightly increased, and there are no unexpected situations. The cumulative apparent demand has declined by 8%, but it has improved month - on - month. The market is in a weak balance. The manufacturer's inventory has decreased, while the middle - stream inventory has increased rapidly, and the overall social inventory remains high [2]. - For soda ash, the overall supply is stable, with a weekly output of 72.38 tons (a decrease of 0.94 tons compared to the previous week). There are minor maintenance expectations in August, and the supply is expected to remain unchanged. The anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity expectations continue, but the actual impact awaits further policy guidance. The inventory is at a historical high, and the market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory Glass Core Viewpoints - **Supply**: The current daily melting volume of glass is 159,000 tons. The supply end has slightly increased, and there are no unexpected changes. From an environmental perspective, the daily melting volume of petroleum coke and coal - gas production lines accounts for 17% and 12% respectively; from the kiln age perspective, the daily melting volume of glass production lines in operation for more than 10 years accounts for about 15% [1]. - **Inventory**: The in - factory glass inventory is 61.896 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 3.043 million heavy boxes compared to the previous week, a decrease of 4.69% week - on - week and 7.74% year - on - year. The inventory days are 26.6 days, a decrease of 1.3 days compared to the previous period. The middle - stream inventory in Shahe has increased rapidly, and under the positive feedback, the manufacturer's inventory has continuously decreased [1]. - **Profit**: According to Longzhong data, the profits of glass production lines using different processes are - 168 yuan for natural gas, + 129 yuan for coal - gas, and + 53 yuan for petroleum coke [1]. - **Demand**: As of mid - July, the average order days of deep - processing sample enterprises are 9.3 days, a decrease of 2.1% week - on - week and 7% year - on - year. The deep - processing enterprises' original glass inventory is 10.4 days, an increase of 13% week - on - week and year - on - year. The average production and sales rate in each region this week is 123, a significant increase compared to the previous week. The spot price in Hubei has continued to rise [1]. Soda Ash Core Viewpoints - **Supply**: The overall supply is stable, with a weekly output of 72.38 tons (a decrease of 0.94 tons compared to the previous week, including a decrease of 0.58 tons in heavy soda ash and 0.36 tons in light soda ash). There are minor maintenance expectations in August, and the supply is expected to remain unchanged. The impact of short - term output fluctuations is weakening. The anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity expectations continue, but the actual impact awaits further policy guidance [4]. - **Inventory**: The soda ash factory inventory is 1.8646 million tons, a decrease of 41,000 tons compared to the previous week (a decrease of 40,800 tons in light soda ash and 200 tons in heavy soda ash). The delivery warehouse inventory is 305,000 tons (an increase of 58,400 tons). The total inventory of the factory and the delivery warehouse is 2.1696 million tons, an increase of 17,400 tons compared to the previous week, and the inventory is still accumulating at a high level [4]. - **Profit**: According to Longzhong data, the theoretical profit of the dual - ton of soda ash produced by the combined soda process is + 18 yuan/ton, and that of the ammonia - soda process is - 35 yuan/ton [4]. - **Demand**: The current daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is 87,700 tons and continues to decline slowly. The inventory of photovoltaic finished products has started to decrease, and its sustainability needs to be observed. The float glass end remains stable overall [4]. Glass Industry Chain Data - **Futures Market**: Provides seasonal data on glass futures' main contract closing price, trading volume, and warehouse receipt quantity [7][8]. - **Spot Market**: Includes seasonal data on the price of Shahe delivery products, the market price of 5mm float glass in different regions, regional price differences, and size - plate price differences [10][18]. - **Month - to - Month and Basis**: Presents seasonal data on glass futures' month - to - month spreads and basis for different contracts in different regions [20][25]. - **Supply**: Contains seasonal data on the production, loss, start - up rate, and production line start - up number of float glass [33][35]. - **Production and Sales**: Offers seasonal data on the glass production - sales rate in different regions [39]. - **Deep - Processing**: Provides seasonal data on the original glass inventory days, order days, and their ratios and differences in glass deep - processing enterprises [44]. - **Cost and Profit**: Presents seasonal data on the production cost and profit of float glass using different processes [50]. - **Import and Export**: Contains seasonal data on the import and export volume of float glass [53]. - **Statistics Bureau Data**: Provides seasonal data on the monthly output of flat glass, hollow glass, tempered glass, and laminated glass [56]. - **Inventory**: Includes seasonal data on the inventory of float glass manufacturers, average available inventory days, and inventory in different regions and in Shahe [60][62]. - **Apparent Demand**: Presents seasonal data on the weekly and monthly apparent demand of float glass, with and without imports and exports [73]. Soda Ash Industry Chain Data - **Futures Market**: Provides seasonal data on the main contract closing price, trading volume, and warehouse receipt quantity of soda ash futures [78]. - **Spot Market**: Includes seasonal data on the market price of heavy and light soda ash in different regions and price differences between heavy and light soda ash in different regions [82][92]. - **Month - to - Month and Basis**: Presents seasonal data on soda ash futures' month - to - month spreads and basis for different contracts in different regions [96][100]. - **Supply**: Contains seasonal data on the weekly and monthly production, heavy - quality rate, capacity utilization rate, and production of heavy and light soda ash in different regions [104][124]. - **Cost and Profit**: Presents seasonal data on the production cost and profit of light soda ash using different processes [126]. - **Import and Export**: Contains seasonal data on the monthly import, export, and net export volume of soda ash [135]. - **Inventory**: Includes seasonal data on the factory inventory, average available inventory days, delivery warehouse inventory, and inventory in different regions of soda ash [138]. - **Apparent Demand**: Presents seasonal data on the weekly and monthly apparent demand of soda ash, light soda ash, and heavy soda ash, with and without imports and exports, as well as the raw material inventory days of glass factories and the pending order days of soda ash enterprises [144][151]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: Provides seasonal data on the daily melting volume, loss volume, and inventory of photovoltaic glass, as well as the combined daily melting volume and loss volume of float and photovoltaic glass [155][158].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Glass market is expected to experience a phased decline. Despite short - term factors boosting the market, weak basis, delivery factors, and high inventory will lead to a market downturn, though the downside space at low levels is limited [2]. - The soda ash market is also likely to have a phased decline. The futures market's previous short - squeeze and subsequent short - covering rally may not be sustainable. High production, high inventory, and large delivery pressure on certain contracts will exert downward pressure on the market [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Supply - As of July 24, 2025, there were 296 glass production lines (200,000 tons/day) after excluding zombie lines, with 222 in operation and 74 cold - repaired. The daily output of float glass was 159,000 tons, up 0.73% from July 17. The daily loss of float glass was 41,050 tons, down 2.73% month - on - month [2]. - In 2025, the total daily melting volume of cold - repaired lines was 11,680 tons/day, and the total daily melting volume of ignited lines was 11,510 tons/day. There are also potential new ignition lines with a total daily melting volume of 14,000 tons/day and potential old - line复产 lines with a total daily melting volume of 8,130 tons. Potential cold - repair lines have a total daily melting volume of 6,900 tons/day [8][9][10]. Demand - As of July 15, 2025, the average order days of deep - processing sample enterprises nationwide was 9.3 days, down 2.1% month - on - month and 7.0% year - on - year. In mid - July, most deep - processing enterprises reported that orders remained at the previous level, with no signs of improvement, and a few reported a further decline in orders [2]. Inventory - As of July 24, 2025, the total inventory of float glass sample enterprises nationwide was 61.896 million heavy cases, down 3.043 million heavy cases (4.69%) month - on - month and 7.74% year - on - year. The inventory days were 26.6 days, 1.3 days less than the previous period. Markets in North China, East China, Central China, and South China all saw significant inventory declines [2]. Price and Profit - This week, most glass prices rose. In Hubei and Shahe, prices increased by 40 yuan/ton. The prices in Shahe were around 1,240 - 1,290 yuan/ton, in Central China's Hubei area around 1,160 - 1,260 yuan/ton, and in East China's Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas around 1,160 - 1,400 yuan/ton. The profit from petroleum coke was about 53 yuan/ton, and the profit from natural gas and coal fuel was about - 168 - 128 yuan/ton [19][21][27]. Inventory and Downstream Start - up - Recently, glass sales have been good, and the market inventory has declined significantly. The de - stocking speed is comparable to that from September to October 2024, and the current futures increase is also similar. However, terminal orders have not improved significantly [33][34]. Photovoltaic Glass Price and Profit - This week, the overall trading in the domestic photovoltaic glass market improved, and the inventory decreased slowly. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels was 10 - 11 yuan/square meter, and that of 3.2mm coated panels was 18 - 19 yuan/square meter, both remaining unchanged from last week [42][44]. Capacity and Inventory - Under the influence of the anti - involution policy, recent supply has decreased, trading has improved, and inventory has declined. As of the end of July, the actual capacity was about 90,500 tons/day, with 414 production lines in operation. The sample inventory days were about 32.59 days, down 9.08% month - on - month [46][47][51]. Soda Ash Supply and Maintenance - The start - up of soda ash production changed little, and the potential maintenance volume was currently small. The capacity utilization rate was 83%, down from 84.1% last week. The weekly output of heavy soda ash reached 408,900 tons [54][56][57]. Inventory - The inventory was about 1.865 million tons. Light soda ash inventory was 74,200 tons, and heavy soda ash inventory was 1.123 million tons. A large amount of inventory was transferred to the delivery warehouse [58][59]. Price and Profit - The nominal price in Shahe and Hubei was around 1,300 - 1,450 yuan/ton. The spot market price increased by 100 - 150 yuan/ton due to the hot futures - related spot procurement. The profit from the joint - alkali method in East China (excluding Shandong) was 17 yuan/ton, and the profit from the ammonia - alkali method in North China was - 35 yuan/ton [64][68][74]. Basis and Spread - High production and high inventory put pressure on near - term contracts. The basis was weak, and the spread faced significant pressure. The futures market rebounded following the glass market, causing the basis to weaken continuously [70][73].

Core Insights - The domestic soda ash market is experiencing price fluctuations, with heavy soda ash prices ranging from 80 to 1280 RMB/ton and light soda ash prices from 20 to 1100 RMB/ton, indicating a price gap of 82 RMB/ton [1] - As of July 21, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.8842 million tons, a decrease of 21,400 tons from the previous week, representing a decline of 1.12% [1] - The market is stabilizing, with some companies slightly increasing prices by 20 to 30 RMB/ton, while overall demand remains weak, primarily driven by low-price procurement [1] Inventory and Supply - The inventory consists of 757,100 tons of light soda ash (down 25,900 tons) and 1,127,100 tons of heavy soda ash (up 4,500 tons) [1] - Supply is showing a slight decrease due to equipment maintenance at Jiangsu Shilian and Xuzhou Fengcheng, while some companies are increasing their production loads [1] - Weekly supply of soda ash is reported at 733,000 tons, an increase of 34,000 tons from the previous week, as some companies resume production [1] Demand and Market Dynamics - The demand side is facing challenges, particularly in the photovoltaic glass sector, which is experiencing significant losses, leading to potential production halts [1] - The current inventory of soda ash has increased by 1.1% to 1.906 million tons, indicating a slowing accumulation rate but a persistent upward trend [1] - The market is witnessing a strong upward movement in prices, with manufacturers attempting to raise prices amid a backdrop of macroeconomic stability [1] Trading Strategies - The trading strategy is primarily driven by macroeconomic logic, with a short-term bullish outlook, but attention is needed on emerging industrial contradictions and logical transitions [1] - Arbitrage suggestions include going long on glass and short on soda ash, while options strategies recommend a wait-and-see approach [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current situation is characterized by weak reality and strong expectations, with policy expectations yet to be disproven, and there is a contradiction between macro - expectations and industrial logic [2] - Bullish factors include anti - involution expectations, rising coal costs, commodity resonance, and the upward movement of the futures market stimulating speculative demand and driving a positive feedback between futures and spot prices [2] - Bearish factors are that the medium - to - long - term fundamentals have not improved [2] - Policy expectations persist, and the futures market remains strong. Attention should be paid to the amplitude of the resonance between the macro and industrial sectors and wait for the next policy guidance [2] 3. Summary by Related Content Glass and Soda Ash Price Forecast - The monthly price forecast for glass is in the range of 1200 - 1500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 51.76% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 97.8%. The monthly price forecast for soda ash is in the range of 1200 - 1600, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 39.03% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 75.6% [1] Glass and Soda Ash Hedging Strategies Glass - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about falling glass prices, short glass futures (FG2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 1500 and sell call options (FG509C1500) with a 50% hedging ratio at 50 - 60 to lock in profits and reduce costs. When the procurement inventory is low and there are concerns about rising glass prices, buy glass futures (FG2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 1200 and sell put options (FG509P1200) with a 50% hedging ratio at 30 - 50 to lock in procurement costs [1] Soda Ash - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about falling soda ash prices, short soda ash futures (SA2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 1600 and sell call options (SA509C1600) with a 50% hedging ratio at 40 - 60. When the procurement inventory is low and there are concerns about rising soda ash prices, buy soda ash futures (SA2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 1200 - 1250 and sell put options (SA509P1300) with a 50% hedging ratio at 30 - 50 [1] Glass Futures Prices and Spreads - On July 25, 2025, the prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1461, 1362, and 1426 respectively, with daily increases of 1.67%, 4.21%, and 1.71%. The spreads (5 - 9), (9 - 1), and (1 - 5) were 99, - 64, and - 35 respectively, with the (5 - 9) spread decreasing by 31 and the (9 - 1) spread increasing by 31 [2] Glass Spot Prices - On July 25, 2025, the average price of glass in Shahe was 1289.4, an increase of 52.6 from the previous day. The prices in different regions also showed varying degrees of increase, such as a 30 increase in North China and a 10 increase in South China [5] Soda Ash Futures Prices and Spreads - On July 25, 2025, the prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1539, 1440, and 1516 respectively, with daily increases of 1.38%, 2.27%, and 2.09%. The spreads (5 - 9), (9 - 1), and (1 - 5) were 99, - 76, and - 23 respectively, with varying degrees of change [6] Soda Ash Spot Prices - On July 25, 2025, the prices of heavy soda ash and light soda ash in different regions all increased to varying degrees, such as a 50 increase in North China and a 70 increase in East China [7] Seasonal Data - There are seasonal data on the daily output of float glass in China, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass in China, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash in China, and the loss volume of soda ash in China, as well as the seasonal data of the basis of glass and soda ash contracts in different regions and the seasonal data of the daily sales - to - production ratio of glass in different regions [8][23][28]

| | | | | | 纯 碱 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025/7/17 | 2025/7/23 | | 2025/7/24 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 2025/7/17 | 2025/7/23 | | 2025/7/24 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河重碱 | 1210.0 | 1330.0 | 1390.0 | 180.0 | 60.0 | SA05合 约 | 1307.0 | 1452.0 | 1518.0 | 211.0 | 66.0 | | 华中重碱 | 1190.0 | 1240.0 | 1310.0 | 120.0 | 70.0 | SA01合约 | 1271.0 | 1411.0 | 1485.0 | 214.0 | 74.0 | | 华南重碱 | 1400.0 | 1400.0 | 1400.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SA09合约 | 1225.0 | 1338.0 | 1408.0 | 183.0 | 70.0 ...

| 玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/7/24 | | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/7/23 周度变化 日度变化 | 2025/7/16 | 2025/7/22 | | | | | 2025/7/16 | 2025/7/22 | | 2025/7/23 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河安全 5mm大 板 | 1160.0 | 1220.0 | 1240.0 | 80.0 | 20.0 | FG09合约 | 1070.0 | 1249.0 | 1211.0 | 141.0 | -38.0 | | 沙河长城 | 1164.0 | 1220.0 | 1248.0 | 84.0 | 28.0 | FG01合约 | 1162.0 | 1342.0 | 1309.0 | 147.0 | -33.0 | | 5mm大板 | | | ...

Report 1: Glass and Soda Ash Futures and Spot Daily Report Core Viewpoints - Yesterday, the market sentiment declined, and soda ash prices followed suit. Coal production cuts boosted market bullish sentiment, and the market has expectations for the elimination of backward production capacity. The overall macro - market sentiment is warm, and the stock market and commodities are rebounding. However, soda ash still has an obvious oversupply situation, and glass also faces over - capacity issues. Both markets need to track the implementation of relevant policies [1]. Key Points from Different Sections Price and Spread - **Glass**:华北报价 rose 0.83% to 1210 yuan/ton,华东报价 rose 0.80% to 1260 yuan/ton,华中报价 rose 2.63% to 1170 yuan/ton, and华南报价 remained unchanged at 1290 yuan/ton. Glass 2505 fell 2.21% to 1372 yuan/ton, and glass 2509 fell 3.04% to 1211 yuan/ton. The 05 basis increased by 20.20% [1]. - **Soda Ash**:华东报价 rose 4.07% to 1280 yuan/ton,华中报价 rose 4.17% to 1250 yuan/ton. Soda ash 2505 fell 1.63% to 1452 yuan/ton, and soda ash 2509 fell 2.51% to 1338 yuan/ton. The 05 basis increased by 19.05% [1]. Supply - Soda ash production rate increased by 3.42% to 84.10%, and weekly output increased by 3.41% to 73.32 million tons. Float glass daily melting volume decreased by 0.38% to 15.78 million tons, and photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased by 2.70% to 91840 tons [1]. Inventory - Glass factory inventory decreased by 3.22% to 6493.90 million cubic meters. Soda ash factory inventory increased by 2.26% to 190.56 million tons, and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 3.61% to 24.66 million tons. Glass factory soda ash inventory days increased by 11.34% to 23.4 days [1]. Real Estate Data - New construction area increased by 2.99% to - 18.73%, construction area decreased by 7.56% to - 33.33%, completion area increased by 15.67% to - 11.68%, and sales area increased by 12.13% to - 1.55% [1]. Report 2: Log Futures Daily Report Core Viewpoints - Recently, the sentiment of commodities has improved under the tone of anti - involution and stable growth, and log futures rose significantly last week. Currently, log demand is in the off - season, and weak demand drags down spot prices. In the context of strong expectations, attention should be paid to market sentiment changes, log supply, and inventory. Buying on dips can be considered [2]. Key Points from Different Sections Price and Spread - Log 2507 fell 1.79% to 818 yuan/cubic meter, log 2509 fell 1.90% to 823 yuan/cubic meter, log 2511 fell 2.05% to 826 yuan/cubic meter, and log 2601 fell to 835.5 yuan/cubic meter. The 9 - 11 spread increased by 2.5 to - 3 yuan/cubic meter, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 2.5 to - 12.5 yuan/cubic meter [2]. Supply and Demand - Last week, inventory started to accumulate, increasing by 7 million cubic meters. As of July 18, the total national coniferous log inventory was 329 million cubic meters. Demand increased by 0.36 million cubic meters last week. As of July 18, the average daily log delivery volume was 6.24 million cubic meters [2]. Report 3: Polysilicon Futures and Spot Daily Report Core Viewpoints - The current futures price has reached the previous expectation, and the arbitrage window is open. The upstream enterprises have hedging needs. With the approaching of the delivery month, investors need to pay attention to position control and risk management. Whether the price will rise further in the long - term depends on the smoothness of the price transmission mechanism and the implementation of capacity integration and production regulation [3]. Key Points from Different Sections Price and Spread - N - type granular silicon average price rose 2.33% to 44000 yuan/ton, N - type material basis decreased by 31.40% to - 4080 yuan/ton. PS2506 rose 1.99% to 50080 yuan/ton, and some month - to - month spreads changed significantly [3]. Fundamental Data - Weekly silicon wafer production decreased by 3.48% to 11.10 GM, and weekly polysilicon production increased by 0.88% to 2.30 million tons. Monthly polysilicon production increased by 5.10% to 10.10 million tons, and silicon wafer production increased by 1.34% to 58.84 GW [3]. Inventory - Polysilicon inventory decreased by 9.78% to 24.90 million tons, and silicon wafer inventory decreased by 11.64% to 16.02 GM [3]. Report 4: Industrial Silicon Futures and Spot Daily Report Core Viewpoints - Driven by the coking coal futures, industrial silicon futures opened higher but then followed the decline of polysilicon and coking coal futures. The industry profit has been repaired, and the arbitrage window is open. However, the fundamental demand is weakening, and attention should be paid to the inventory pressure. If the prices of polysilicon and coking coal futures fall, the price of industrial silicon will also decline, and buying put options can be considered [4]. Key Points from Different Sections Price and Spread - The price of East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon rose 3.09% to 10000 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 955.56% to 475 yuan/ton. Some month - to - month spreads changed, with 2508 - 2509 rising 20.00% to - 20 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - National industrial silicon production decreased by 12.10% to 30.08 million tons, and the national start - up rate decreased by 11.37% to 51.23%. Organic silicon DMC production increased by 13.75% to 20.93 million tons, and polysilicon production increased by 5.10% to 10.10 million tons [4]. Inventory - Social inventory decreased by 0.73% to 54.70 million tons, and warehouse receipt inventory increased by 0.11% to 25.05 million tons [4]. Report 5: Natural Rubber Futures and Spot Daily Report Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, due to continuous rainfall in Southeast Asia and typhoons in Hainan, the supply is disrupted, and rubber prices are rebounding. The overall demand is stable, and the terminal demand increment is limited. Short - term observation is recommended, and attention should be paid to the raw material supply situation after the weather improves in the main producing areas [6]. Key Points from Different Sections Price and Spread - The price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber remained unchanged at 14950 yuan/ton, and the full - latex basis increased by 50.00% to - 55 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread increased by 5.66% to - 750 yuan/ton [6]. Fundamental Data - In May, Thailand's production increased by 157.52% to 272.20 thousand tons, and China's production increased by 67.02% to 97.00 thousand tons. The start - up rate of semi - steel tires increased by 3.07% to 75.99%, and the start - up rate of all - steel tires increased by 0.54% to 65.10% [6]. Inventory - Bonded area inventory increased by 0.63% to 636383 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange factory warehouse futures inventory decreased by 0.82% to 36691 tons [6].

1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 河北鑫利4.8mm（折5mm） 2022 2023 2024 2025 (600) (400) (200) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 华北玻璃生产利润（气） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1215 1220 1215 1080 1407 1249 1293 1342 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 沙河德金 沙河安全 沙河低价 湖北低价 07合约 09合约 11合约 01合约 玻璃价格结构 今日(7/22） 昨日(7/21） 一周前(7/15） 一月前(6/23） (500) 0 500 1,000 1,500 华南玻璃利润（气） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 玻璃：河北低价大板 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 100 200 300 40 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Glass - Supply pressure is rising as the output of previously ignited production lines gradually climbs. The weekly output of float glass last week was 1108400 tons (+0.14), and the national float glass operating rate was 75.63% (-0.05). - Downstream demand is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The number of downstream deep - processing factory order days on July 15 was 9.3 days (-0.2). However, the speculative demand has increased due to the rising market, and the apparent demand for glass has increased month - on - month. The weekly apparent demand for float glass last week was 24.3305 million weight boxes (+207000). - The inventory of glass factories decreased last week driven by speculative demand. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 64.939 million weight boxes (-2.163 million), and the inventory in Hubei factories was 6.12 million weight boxes (-660000). - The cost of glass decreased last week, while the profit increased. - The domestic anti - involution sentiment is high, and the bullish sentiment is strong, pushing the market to continue rising. There is strong supply pressure in the future. Short - term speculative demand drives the inventory reduction of glass factories. It is recommended to focus on short - term long ideas, and pay attention to the glass index operating range of 1090 - 1200 - 1250. The arbitrage FG09 - SA09 should be treated with a bullish idea. Pay attention to glass production, glass factory inventory, and glass spot prices [5]. 纯碱 - The maintenance of soda ash plants has ended, and the production of soda ash is gradually recovering. The production of soda ash last week was 733200 tons (+24300), including 318500 tons of light soda ash (+9700) and 414700 tons of heavy soda ash (+14600). - The production of photovoltaic glass has significantly declined and will continue to decline, leading to a downward expectation for the demand for heavy soda ash, while the demand for light soda ash is relatively stable. The rising market last week drove up speculative demand, and the apparent demand for soda ash increased. The daily output of float and photovoltaic glass last week was 246075 tons. - The inventory of soda ash plants rebounded from a high level last week. With the recovery of supply and the implementation of photovoltaic production cuts, the inventory accumulation trend of soda ash plants is difficult to reverse. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers last week was 1.9056 million tons (+42200), including 783000 tons of light soda ash inventory (-8300) and 1.1226 million tons of heavy soda ash inventory (+50500). - According to Steel Union, the cost of soda ash increased slightly last week, and the profit showed mixed trends. Currently, the cost support for heavy soda ash in the East China region using the combined soda process is around 1240. - The supply of soda ash is gradually recovering, while the production of glass has significantly weakened, putting pressure on the demand side. There is strong inventory accumulation pressure in the long term. Currently, the macro - sentiment has a large impact on the market. It is advisable to wait and see for now. After the sentiment fades, pay attention to the idea of shorting on rallies. The operating range of the soda ash index is 1220 - 1350. The arbitrage FG09 - SA09 should be treated with a bullish idea. Pay attention to soda ash plant maintenance, soda ash plant inventory accumulation, and glass production [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Supply - The output of float glass increased month - on - month, and the supply pressure increased. The output of previously ignited production lines gradually climbed, with the weekly output of float glass last week at 1108400 tons (+0.14), and the national float glass operating rate at 75.63% (-0.05) [11][13]. Demand - Speculative demand drove the apparent demand to increase month - on - month, while the number of deep - processing order days decreased month - on - month. On July 15, the number of downstream deep - processing factory order days was 9.3 days (-0.2), and downstream demand was at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The rising market drove up speculative demand, and the weekly apparent demand for float glass last week was 24.3305 million weight boxes (+207000) [15][17]. Inventory - Short - term speculative demand rebounded, driving the inventory reduction of glass factories. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises last week was 64.939 million weight boxes (-2.163 million), and the inventory in Hubei factories was 6.12 million weight boxes (-660000) [19][20]. Cost and Profit - The cost decreased, and the profit increased. The weekly average cost of float glass using natural gas as fuel was 1442 yuan/ton (-1); using coal - made gas as fuel was 1004 yuan/ton (-7); using petroleum coke as fuel was 1053 yuan/ton (-27). The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 178.9 yuan/ton (+4.21); using coal - made gas as fuel was 121.83 yuan/ton (+13.05); using petroleum coke as fuel was - 4.76 yuan/ton (+45.71) [29][31][35]. Basis and Calendar Spread - As of July 18, the glass 01 basis was - 125, the glass 05 basis was - 200, and the glass 09 basis was - 41. The basis had a weak driving force on the market. The glass 9 - 1 contract spread was - 84, and the glass 1 - 5 contract spread was - 75. There were no calendar spread opportunities [40][44]. Soda Ash Supply - The maintenance of soda ash plants ended, and the production of soda ash gradually recovered. The production of soda ash last week was 733200 tons (+24300), including 318500 tons of light soda ash (+9700) and 414700 tons of heavy soda ash (+14600) [51][53]. Demand - The production of photovoltaic glass significantly declined, putting pressure on the demand for heavy soda ash. The demand for light soda ash was relatively stable. The rising market last week drove up speculative demand, and the apparent demand for soda ash increased. The daily output of float and photovoltaic glass last week was 246075 tons, and the apparent demand for soda ash last week was 691000 tons (+36000), including 364200 tons of heavy soda ash apparent demand (+31500) and 326800 tons of light soda ash apparent demand (+4500) [55][58][62]. Inventory - The inventory of soda ash plants increased month - on - month, and the inventory accumulation trend was difficult to reverse. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers last week was 1.9056 million tons (+42200), including 783000 tons of light soda ash inventory (-8300) and 1.1226 million tons of heavy soda ash inventory (+50500) [64][66]. Profit and Cost - The cost increased slightly, and the profit showed mixed trends. Currently, the cost support for heavy soda ash in the East China region using the combined soda process is around 1240 [71][72]. Basis, Calendar Spread, and Price Spread - As of July 18, the soda ash 01 contract basis was - 59, the soda ash 05 contract basis was - 100, and the soda ash 09 contract basis was - 10. The basis had a weak driving force, and it was advisable to wait and see. The soda ash 9 - 1 contract spread was - 49, and the soda ash 1 - 5 contract spread was - 41. There were no calendar spread opportunities. The glass - soda ash 01 contract spread was - 100, the glass - soda ash 05 contract spread was - 66, and the glass - soda ash 09 contract spread was - 135. The arbitrage FG09 - SA09 should be treated with a bullish idea [79][83][88].