晨报 铝锭 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2026 年 2 月 26 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日铝价偏强震荡。宏观上交易员削减对美联储的降息押注，美 联储 3 月维持利率不变的概率高达 98%。 以伊冲突 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to move sideways [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; rebar is for range trading; glass is expected to be weakly volatile [1][7][8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended to buy on dips; aluminum is advised to strengthen observation; nickel is recommended to hold moderately on dips; tin, gold, and silver are for range trading; lithium carbonate is expected to trade in a range [1][9][10][12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; caustic soda is expected to trade at a low level; soda ash is recommended to short on rallies; polyolefins are expected to be weakly volatile [1][15][17][18]. - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn, and apples are expected to be strongly volatile; red dates are expected to move sideways [1][23][24][25]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs are advised to be cautious about shorting in the 05 contract and short on rallies; eggs are recommended to short on rallies in the near - month contract if the culling does not accelerate; corn is for range trading; soybean meal is recommended to short on rallies; oils are advised to buy on dips [1][25][27][28]. Core Views The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. It analyzes the price trends and investment opportunities of different industries, taking into account factors such as policy changes, inventory levels, and production capacity [1]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Short - term may move sideways, and may be strongly volatile before the Two Sessions. Pay attention to market sentiment towards the Two Sessions. Medium - to long - term is bullish, suggesting buying on dips [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: May move sideways, pay attention to supply pressure [5]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: After the Spring Festival, the coking coal market is generally weak and stable. Short - term trading is recommended [7]. - **Rebar**: On Wednesday, the rebar futures price rebounded. It is expected to move sideways under the background of low valuation and weak driving force. Pay attention to the post - festival demand recovery progress [7]. - **Glass**: Supply has decreased, inventory has accumulated, and demand will be weak in the short term. It is expected to be weakly volatile, and the post - festival volatility will increase [8]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The supply - demand relationship is tight, and there is still support. After a rapid release of risks, it may stabilize. Pay attention to the post - festival inventory inflection point and macro - sentiment calming [9]. - **Aluminum**: The supply expectation has improved, but the bullish sentiment in the non - ferrous market remains. Strengthen observation [10]. - **Nickel**: Affected by the reduction of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia, the ore end has strong support. It is recommended to hold moderately on dips [12]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream demand is in rigid procurement. It is expected to continue to trade in a range [12]. - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by factors such as Trump's tariff increase and the Fed's policy, the medium - term price operation center has moved up. Range trading is recommended [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply may increase, and it is expected to continue to trade in a range. Pay attention to the disturbance at the Yichun ore end [15]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply - demand situation is still weak, but there are opportunities for industrial upgrading. It is expected to trade at a low level. Pay attention to policies, export, inventory, and raw material prices [15]. - **Caustic Soda**: The demand support is weak, and there is inventory pressure. It is expected to trade at a low level. Pay attention to supply - side maintenance and downstream replenishment [17]. - **Styrene**: It is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term, but the supply pressure will increase in March. Pay attention to raw material prices and downstream demand [18]. - **Rubber**: The cost support is enhanced, and the demand is expected to be boosted. It is expected to trade in a range. Pay attention to inventory and downstream开工 rates [19]. - **Urea**: The supply has increased, and the demand is supported. It is expected to move sideways [20]. - **Methanol**: The supply has decreased, and the demand is weak. The inland market is relatively weak [20]. - **Polyolefins**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the inventory has accumulated. It is expected to be weakly volatile. Pay attention to downstream demand, inventory, and geopolitical situations [21]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is expected to be high, and the inventory pressure is increasing. It is recommended to short on rallies [22]. Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The consumption expectation has recovered after the festival, and it is expected to be strongly volatile [23]. - **Apples**: The sales in the producing and selling areas are normal. It is expected to be strongly volatile [24]. - **Red Dates**: The acquisition price in the producing area is based on quality. It is expected to move sideways [25]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: In the short term, the price is weakly adjusted. In the medium - to long - term, the supply will gradually tighten. The 05 contract is advised to short on rallies [25]. - **Eggs**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is seasonally weak. If the culling does not accelerate, short on rallies in the near - month contract [27]. - **Corn**: In the short term, the price is expected to move in a range. In the medium - to long - term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. Range trading is recommended [28]. - **Soybean Meal**: Affected by factors such as tariffs and supply - demand, it is recommended to short on rallies [29]. - **Oils**: In the short term, there is support below, but the upside is limited. It is recommended to buy on dips [29].

Group 1 - Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) indicates a positive outlook for the aluminum market due to opportunities from China's production capacity limits and increased demand from manufacturers switching from copper to aluminum [1] - EGA's CEO Abdulnasser Bin Kalban expects global aluminum demand to exceed supply, citing a lack of new aluminum production facilities worldwide [1] - EGA plans to build its first primary aluminum plant in the U.S. in nearly 50 years, with total investment for the smelter in Oklahoma increasing from $4 billion to between $5 billion and $6 billion due to advanced EX technology being tested in the UAE [1] Group 2 - Century Aluminum will hold a 40% stake in the project, while EGA will retain the remaining 60%, with planned production capacity increased to 750,000 tons of aluminum per year [1] - EGA reported a 7% increase in core profits last year due to sales growth, but faced a $765 million loss due to Guinea's revocation of its local subsidiary GAC's bauxite mining license [1] - EGA is in ongoing discussions with Guinea authorities regarding the license revocation and has signed alternative bauxite supply agreements from Australia and Ghana, meeting over 70% of supply needs [2]

Copper - Copper prices showed a strong fluctuation overnight, with the domestic refined copper import window closing [2][11] - LME copper inventory increased by 6,475 tons to 249,650 tons, while SHFE copper warehouse receipts rose by 10,717 tons to 287,806 tons [2][11] - The core logic driving copper prices upward remains the insufficient global copper mine capital expenditure leading to a supply gap, alongside increased demand from new energy and AI infrastructure [2][11] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel rose by 0.73% to $18,045 per ton, while SHFE nickel increased by 0.11% to 141,680 yuan per ton [12][13] - LME nickel inventory increased by 480 tons to 287,808 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts rose by 1,253 tons to 53,177 tons [12][13] - The approved nickel ore production quota in Indonesia is significantly lower than last year's target, raising concerns about supply tightness [12][13] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloys - Alumina prices showed a slight increase, with AO2605 closing at 2,874 yuan per ton, up 0.77% [14][15] - SHFE aluminum prices rose to 23,980 yuan per ton, reflecting a 1.18% increase, while aluminum alloy prices also saw gains [14][15] - The pressure from social inventory and expiring warehouse receipts continues to suppress the upward momentum of alumina prices [14][15] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a slight increase, with the main contract closing at 8,430 yuan per ton, up 0.3% [15] - Polysilicon prices weakened, with the main contract dropping to 47,630 yuan per ton, down 0.76% [15] - The market is currently facing a supply narrative support for industrial silicon, but demand constraints limit upward price movement [15] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures rose by 3.4% to 166,480 yuan per ton, with significant increases in both battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate prices [16] - Social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 2,019 tons to 105,463 tons, indicating a tightening supply situation [16] - Supply disruptions from Zimbabwe and strong auction prices for lithium ore are expected to positively influence market conditions in the short term [16]

Group 1: Market Trends - The non-ferrous and rare metals sectors experienced significant gains, with stocks like Hanrui Cobalt, Yunnan Zhenye, and Northern Rare Earth reaching their daily price limits [1] - The small metals and rare earth sectors surged, with Northern Rare Earth attracting over 2.9 billion yuan in capital inflow, and stocks like Hanrui Cobalt and Yunnan Zhenye hitting their daily limits [3] - Basic metals also showed strength, with aluminum and copper stocks in Hong Kong rising significantly, driven by concerns over electricity shortages [5] Group 2: Pricing and Demand Dynamics - The U.S. government plans to use AI models for pricing key minerals, including germanium, gallium, antimony, and tungsten, which may shift the global supply-demand landscape [2] - The prices of rare earth products have increased post-holiday, with significant price rises noted for various rare earth oxides and metals [3] - The demand for rare earth materials is being driven by the explosive growth in AI-related hardware, with sales of AI glasses increasing by 70%-80% during the holiday period [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the global AI server market will drive demand for rare earth permanent magnets and high-end tin materials, indicating a shift in the role of small metals in production [4] - Concerns over electricity shortages are expected to support a sustained shortage in the global aluminum market, with forecasts suggesting a 15% increase in aluminum prices by 2026 [5] - Citigroup maintains a bullish outlook on copper prices, expecting them to rise to $14,000 per ton in the next three months, driven by strong buying in both physical and financial markets [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that Yun Aluminum Co., Ltd. primarily focuses on the domestic market for its aluminum products, with only a small portion of aluminum welding materials being exported to Europe [2] Group 2 - The company has confirmed that the majority of its aluminum products are sold within China, highlighting a strong domestic market presence [2] - The export activities are limited, with only a minor category of products, specifically aluminum welding materials, being sent to European markets [2]

Core Viewpoint - Tianshan Aluminum has implemented its cash dividend distribution for Q3 2025, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns and confidence in its operational strength [1] Group 1: Cash Dividends - The company distributed a cash dividend of 1 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares, totaling approximately 459 million yuan [1] - From 2020 to 2025, Tianshan Aluminum's cumulative cash dividends reached 7.631 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Share Buybacks - Tianshan Aluminum has initiated share buybacks as a strategy to optimize its capital structure and convey value confidence to the market [1] - In early 2023, the company completed its first round of share buybacks, spending 150 million yuan to repurchase 23.148 million shares [1] - The second round of buybacks utilized 100 million yuan to repurchase 15.155 million shares, representing 0.33% of the total share capital [1] - As of September 30, 2025, the company has repurchased a total of 23.705 million shares, accounting for 0.51% of the total share capital, with over 200 million yuan spent [1] Group 3: Share Cancellation - Tianshan Aluminum has fully canceled the shares repurchased in the first round, corresponding to the buyback funds of 150 million yuan [1] - The cancellation of shares is expected to effectively optimize the share structure and enhance earnings per share, thereby boosting investor confidence [1] Group 4: Market Confidence - Industry insiders believe that the continuous and stable shareholder returns from listed companies are a direct reflection of their operational strength and development confidence, which is crucial for building trust in the capital market [1]

春节前后现货铝市场维持震荡态势，波动区间收窄。截至2月24日富宝A00现货铝价23390元/吨，环比节 前涨0.95%。主因，一、春节前后宏观驱动降温，前期过热的贵金属、铜乃至资金情绪在春节前后皆显 温和，对铝的驱动减弱；春节期间海外关税调整影响亦较为温和。二、供给端压力提升，铝厂运行平 稳，春节前后铝水比降至年内低位，铝锭供应提升的同时下游需求受制于铝价高位压力减少备货，社库 累积较多，节后同比累积达到近五年高位，预计总量或攀升至130万吨左右。需求端随着下游复工将有 改善，汽车、电力、光伏等领域表现稳健。短期宏观需关注美国对于地缘及关税的表态，基本面关注下 游复工进程，铝价或维持23000-24000元/吨区间震荡。（卓创资讯） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 电解铝：宏观情绪谨慎基本面施压市场维持区间震荡 ...

Core Insights - Longkou City in Shandong Province has been recognized for five consecutive years as an advanced county for high-quality development, with a focus on the high-end aluminum materials industry, which is projected to exceed 100 billion yuan in output value in 2024 [1][12]. Industry Development - The high-end aluminum materials industry in Longkou has transformed basic aluminum ingots into high-end products used in aviation, automotive lightweight components, and everyday items like food packaging [3][11]. - Longkou has adopted a full-chain layout and intensive development strategy, creating an industrial network that covers the entire lifecycle of aluminum production, significantly reducing logistics costs and enhancing production efficiency [5][6]. Cluster Dynamics - The presence of major players like Nanshan Aluminum has attracted over 130 upstream and downstream enterprises, forming a healthy ecosystem that promotes collaboration and innovation [6][12]. - Longkou's aluminum industry has evolved from basic aluminum alloy doors and windows to over 100 product series and more than 6,000 specifications, supported by a robust industrial chain [6][12]. Innovation and Technology - Longkou prioritizes technological innovation, establishing a collaborative ecosystem that integrates leading companies, platforms, and talent development to transition from manufacturing to intelligent manufacturing [7][9]. - Nanshan Aluminum has invested significantly in research and development, resulting in numerous patents and the establishment of national and provincial research platforms, which have led to breakthroughs in key technologies for aerospace aluminum materials [7][11]. Market Positioning - Longkou has successfully moved beyond low-end processing, establishing a foothold in the global high-end aluminum materials market, supplying major aerospace manufacturers like Airbus and Boeing [11][12]. - In the automotive sector, Longkou has positioned itself as a leader in lightweight aluminum components, collaborating with major car manufacturers to enhance vehicle efficiency [12]. Sustainability Efforts - Longkou's aluminum industry is committed to sustainability, with initiatives to recycle aluminum and reduce carbon emissions significantly, aligning with national carbon neutrality goals [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Aluminum: Neutral; Alumina: Neutral; Aluminum alloy: Neutral [9] - Arbitrage: Long aluminum and short aluminum alloy [9] 2. Core View - Overseas uncertainties in the electrolytic aluminum market remain. Domestically, the supply - demand balance is testing price transmission and post - holiday consumption recovery. Long - term macro - economic factors are positive, and there may be arbitrage opportunities between aluminum and aluminum alloy [6]. - In the alumina market, supply pressure is relieved due to production cuts in northern plants, and there is a possibility of a short - term supply pressure relief in the domestic spot market [7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 23390 yuan/ton, with a change of 230 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium is - 160 yuan/ton, with a change of - 40 yuan/ton [1]. - Central China A00 aluminum price is 23310 yuan/ton, and the spot premium changes - 40 yuan/ton to - 240 yuan/ton [1]. - Foshan A00 aluminum price is 23470 yuan/ton, with a change of 260 yuan/ton. The spot premium changes - 5 yuan/ton to - 75 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Aluminum Futures - On February 24, 2026, the main Shanghai aluminum futures contract opens at 23440 yuan/ton, closes at 23550 yuan/ton, with a change of 175 yuan/ton. The highest price is 23700 yuan/ton, and the lowest is 23400 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 118216 lots, and the open interest is 127637 lots [2]. 3.3 Inventory - As of February 24, 2026, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory is 110.8 million tons, with a change of 21.6 million tons from the previous period. The warrant inventory is 282599 tons, with a change of 80204 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory is 471550 tons, with a change of - 2000 tons [2]. 3.4 Alumina Spot Price - On February 24, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi is 2610 yuan/ton, Shandong is 2555 yuan/ton, Henan is 2635 yuan/ton, Guangxi is 2670 yuan/ton, Guizhou is 2740 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price is 311 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.5 Alumina Futures - On February 24, 2026, the main alumina futures contract opens at 2913 yuan/ton, closes at 2829 yuan/ton, with a change of 6 yuan/ton (0.21% change). The highest price is 2913 yuan/ton, and the lowest is 2811 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 252117 lots, and the open interest is 286192 lots [2]. 3.6 Aluminum Alloy Price - On February 24, 2026, the Baotai civil raw aluminum purchase price is 17400 yuan/ton, and the mechanical raw aluminum purchase price is 17800 yuan/ton, with a price change of 200 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Baotai ADC12 quotation is 23200 yuan/ton, with a price change of 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. 3.7 Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The aluminum alloy social inventory is 6.77 million tons, and the in - factory inventory is 9.35 million tons [4]. 3.8 Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost is 22468 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is 632 yuan/ton [5].