摘要 1、今天，A股午后突发跳水，创业板指最终跌超1%，机器人板块逆势上涨，AI芯片、半导体等下跌。 2、两大原因影响市场表现，科技行情还能持续多久？ 3、机构：近期A股市场风格与2013年有一定类似之处。会否重演2013-2015年科技牛？ 真话白话说财经，理财不说违心话 --这是第1312 篇白话财经- - "上午还在数钱，下午就开始数心跳了。" （图片来源：东方财富APP，统计截至2025/3/7，不作投资推荐） 两市成交额超1.8万亿，盘面上，机器人板块在利好作用下逆势上涨，AI芯片、半导体等板块则出现明显回调。 不过对于后市，机构认为，"两会行情"风格切向大盘，会后科技有望二次上涨。 A股跳水原因揭秘 上午还是创了年内新高的指数，下午就开始跳水，到底是发生了什么？ 1、港股跳水，外围科技股大跌。 下午，港股市场出现大幅跳水，恒指、恒生科技指数转跌，大数据概念、信息安全等集体下跌。日本、韩国等亚太市场集体走弱。 （图片来源：东方财富APP，统计截至2025/3/7，不作投资推荐） 分析人士认为，外围不确性依然较强，特朗普的政策摇摆不动，给全球市场带来不适。 2、 Manus突传大消息。 随后，Manu ...

Group 1: Economic Outlook and Policy Adjustments - 15 provinces have lowered their economic growth targets, accounting for 31.8% of national GDP, with a national weighted average target of 5.3% for 2024 [1] - Special bonds will support computing power, emerging industry equipment, intelligent transformation, and provincial industrial parks, with the capital ratio for special bonds increased to 30% [1] - Local governments are ensuring an increase in technology investment, with Shanghai setting a target for R&D spending to reach 4.5% of GDP [1] Group 2: AI Industry Developments - DeepSeek R1 model has entered the global top-tier model ranks, leading to rapid user growth and a reevaluation of the AI industry landscape [2] - 10 cloud computing giants and 12 intelligent computing companies have integrated with DeepSeek, benefiting from short-term traffic and building long-term competitive advantages [2] - Following the DeepSeek event, Chinese tech asset valuations have recovered, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 22.8% [2] Group 3: Computing Power and Investment Trends - The government is accelerating the development of domestically controlled computing power, with a target of 105 EFlops for intelligent computing construction by 2025 [3] - Internet companies are experiencing rapid growth in capital expenditures, with ByteDance's expected CapEx for 2025 reaching 160 billion yuan, doubling year-on-year [3] - Comparable companies are projected to have PS valuations of 52, 36, and 28 times from 2024 to 2026, with Cambrian expected to enjoy a valuation premium as a rare domestic AI chip player [3] Group 4: Solid-State Battery Market Insights - Solid-state batteries offer higher energy density, enhanced safety, and longer cycle life compared to traditional lithium batteries, positioning them as a key direction for next-generation power batteries [4] - Major automakers like BYD, GAC, and Changan have set timelines for solid-state battery deployment, with 2027 identified as a critical mass production year [4] - The solid-state battery market is projected to exceed 600 GWh in shipments by 2030, with a market size surpassing 250 billion yuan, indicating a period of rapid growth [4] Group 5: Semiconductor Industry Developments - By the end of 2024, SMIC is expected to have a total capacity of 421,000 wafers per month, making it the largest and most advanced foundry in mainland China [5] - SMIC operates multiple 200mm and 300mm wafer fabs in Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, and Tianjin, with plans to add three new 12-inch production lines [5] - The domestic demand for AI chips is strong, and SMIC's advanced process capacity is expected to fill part of the domestic computing chip demand due to overseas flow limitations [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Nvidia (NVDA.US) with a target price slightly adjusted to $143.0, indicating a potential upside of 19% from the current price of $120.2 [1][5][22]. Core Insights - Nvidia's revenue for FY4Q25 reached $39.331 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of 78% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 12%, exceeding previous guidance and market expectations by approximately $1 billion [2][15]. - The company anticipates a median revenue of $43 billion for FY1Q26, also above market consensus [2]. - Nvidia's gross margin for FY4Q25 was reported at 73.0%, a decline of 2.9 percentage points year-over-year and 1.5 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, attributed to the ramp-up of Blackwell production [2][15]. - The net profit for FY4Q25 grew by 80% year-over-year and 14% quarter-over-quarter, surpassing market expectations [2][15]. - The report highlights Nvidia as a key beneficiary of the AI large model industry's growth, driven by innovations from DeepSeek and the scaling law effects in various segments [1][3]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Nvidia's projected revenues for FY2024 to FY2028 are as follows: - FY2024: $60.922 billion - FY2025: $130.497 billion - FY2026E: $201.305 billion - FY2027E: $252.321 billion - FY2028E: $292.164 billion - The net profit projections for the same period are: - FY2024: $29.760 billion - FY2025: $72.880 billion - FY2026E: $109.193 billion - FY2027E: $143.118 billion - FY2028E: $160.114 billion [4][13]. Market Performance and Valuation - Nvidia's current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 25.9x, significantly lower than its July 2024 peak of 42.7x and below its historical average by one standard deviation, enhancing its valuation attractiveness [1][22]. - The report indicates that Nvidia's GPU products are positioned to benefit from the scaling laws associated with AI large models, which are expected to drive demand across various sectors, including startups [3][29].