Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the provided reports Group 3: Summary of Glass Information Price Changes - From July 14 to July 21, 2025, the prices of various 5mm glass products in different regions showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of 5mm large - plate glass from Shahe Anquan increased from 1160.0 to 1207.0, a weekly increase of 47.0 [1]. - FG09 contract price rose from 1102.0 to 1173.0, a weekly increase of 71.0; FG01 contract price increased from 1196.0 to 1254.0, a weekly increase of 58.0 [1]. Profit and Cost - North China coal - fired glass profit increased from 276.2 to 281.7, a weekly increase of 5.5; North China coal - fired cost increased from 879.8 to 895.3, a weekly increase of 15.5 [1]. - South China natural gas glass profit remained at - 118.6; North China natural gas glass profit increased from - 203.4 to - 192.9, a weekly increase of 10.5 [1]. Sales and Production - Glass sales and production data showed that the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe was 114, in Hubei was 108, in East China was 106, and in South China was 101 [1]. Group 4: Summary of Soda Ash Information Price Changes - From July 14 to July 21, 2025, the prices of various soda ash products in different regions changed. For example, the price of Shahe heavy soda ash increased from 1230.0 to 1280.0, a weekly increase of 50.0 [1]. - SA05 contract price rose from 1311.0 to 1390.0, a weekly increase of 79.0; SA01 contract price increased from 1286.0 to 1354.0, a weekly increase of 68.0 [1]. Profit and Cost - North China ammonia - soda process profit increased from - 75.6 to - 33.2, a weekly increase of 42.4; North China combined - soda process profit increased from - 60.9 to - 35.0, a weekly increase of 25.9 [1]. Market Conditions - Soda ash spot market: The spot price of heavy soda ash at the Hebei delivery warehouse was around 1260, and the price delivered to Shahe was around 1280. The downstream purchasing willingness for heavy soda ash was poor [1]. - Soda ash industry: Factory inventory decreased slightly [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Glass: Bullish [3] - Soda Ash: Sideways [4] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term supply and demand of glass are stable, and market sentiment dominates. Soda ash has a weak fundamental situation but positive market sentiment [3][4]. - The "anti - involution" theme is the main trading logic in the short - term, improving overall sentiment and causing glass and soda ash prices to rise. Glass has demand resilience and price support, while soda ash faces price pressure due to supply increase and demand weakening [40][41][42]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Main Views and Strategy Overview Glass - Supply: Neutral, with stable production. Daily output is 158,400 tons, industry start - up rate is 75.68%, and capacity utilization is 79.2%, all unchanged from the 10th. No new ignition or water - release production lines this week, and one pre - ignited line may produce glass next week [3]. - Demand: Bullish, with short - term resilience despite overall pressure in the off - season. Mid - term demand is a concern due to the weak real estate situation [3]. - Inventory: Bullish, with significant inventory reduction. Enterprise inventory is 64.939 million heavy cases, a 3.22% week - on - week decrease and a 0.29% year - on - year increase. Inventory days are 27.9 days, 1 day less than the previous period [3]. - Basis/Spread: Neutral, with volatile basis this week and a lower 09 - 01 spread [3]. - Valuation: Neutral, with prices rebounding from the low point and cost support [3]. - Macro and Policy: Bullish, with improved market sentiment due to the "anti - involution" trading logic [3]. - Investment View: Bullish, with short - term supply - demand stability and sentiment - driven [3]. - Trading Strategy: Buy call options for single - side trading; no arbitrage strategy [3]. Soda Ash - Supply: Bearish, with increased supply. This week's production is 733,200 tons, a 3.42% week - on - week increase. Light soda ash production is 318,500 tons, and heavy soda ash production is 414,700 tons, both increasing. Supply is expected to continue rising next week [4]. - Demand: Bearish, with weakening demand from the float and photovoltaic industries. Downstream purchases are mainly on - demand [4]. - Inventory: Bearish, with increased inventory. Total factory inventory is 1.9056 million tons, a 2.26% week - on - week increase. Light soda ash inventory decreases by 8,300 tons, while heavy soda ash inventory increases by 50,500 tons [4]. - Basis/Spread: Neutral, with a weakening basis this week and a lower 09 - 01 spread [4]. - Valuation: Neutral, with prices rebounding and cost support [4]. - Macro and Policy: Bullish, with improved market sentiment due to the "anti - involution" trading logic [4]. - Investment View: Sideways, with a weak fundamental situation but positive sentiment [4]. - Trading Strategy: No single - side or arbitrage strategy [4]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Review Glass - Price: This week, the price fluctuated strongly. The main contract closed at 1081 (+55), and the Shahe spot price was 1088 (+12) [6]. Soda Ash - Price: This week, the price fluctuated strongly. The main contract closed at 1216 (+42), and the Shahe spot price was 1215 (+13) [11]. Spread/Basis - Soda Ash: The 09 - 01 spread fluctuated, and the basis fluctuated [20]. - Glass: The 09 - 01 spread increased slightly, and the basis fluctuated [20]. 3. Supply - Demand Fundamental Data Glass - Supply: Stable. Production is stable, and production profits have slightly recovered. The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel is - 178.90 yuan/ton, a 4.21 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase; using coal - made gas is 121.83 yuan/ton, a 13.05 - yuan/ton increase; using petroleum coke is - 4.76 yuan/ton, a 45.71 - yuan/ton increase [23]. - Demand: Resilient. Downstream deep - processing orders are weak, with an average order days of 9.3 days, a 2.1% week - on - week and a 7.0% year - on - year decrease. Real - estate mid - and back - end completion data is poor [26][27]. - Inventory: Significantly reduced, with enterprise inventory at 64.939 million heavy cases, a 3.22% week - on - week decrease and a 0.29% year - on - year increase. Inventory days are 27.9 days, 1 day less than the previous period [28]. Soda Ash - Supply: Increasing. Production has increased, and production profits are decreasing. Ammonia - soda method theoretical profit is - 83.20 yuan/ton, a 0.90 - yuan/ton week - on - week decrease; combined - soda method theoretical profit (double - ton) is - 33.50 yuan/ton, a 6 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase [32][33]. - Demand: Weakening, with weakening demand from the float and photovoltaic industries, especially in the photovoltaic industry with expected production cuts. Downstream purchases are mainly on - demand [36]. - Inventory: Increasing. Total factory inventory is 1.9056 million tons, a 2.26% week - on - week increase. Light soda ash inventory decreases by 8,300 tons, while heavy soda ash inventory increases by 50,500 tons [37].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soda ash market is expected to be characterized by strong supply and weak demand this week, with prices expected to fluctuate at the bottom. Traders are advised to pay attention to macro and policy impacts, operate cautiously, and control positions to manage potential volatility risks [10]. - Given the current fundamental pressure and unclear policies, traders are advised to stay on the sidelines and be wary of the risk of chasing high prices [38]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main soda ash contract SA2509 ranged between 1247 - 1202 yuan/ton, showing low - level fluctuations. As of the afternoon close on July 18, 2025, the contract fell 1 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of - 0.18%, closing at 1216 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side** - As of July 17, 2025, domestic soda ash production was 73.32 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.42 million tons, or 3.42%. Light soda ash production was 31.85 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.97 million tons, and heavy soda ash production was 41.47 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.45 million tons. The increase was due to the resumption of enterprise maintenance [7][11]. - The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 84.10%, compared with 81.32% last week, a week - on - week increase of 2.78%. Among them, the ammonia - soda capacity utilization rate was 87.70%, a week - on - week increase of 5.13%, and the co - production capacity utilization rate was 73.93%, a week - on - week increase of 3.60% [15]. - **Inventory** - As of July 17, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 190.56 million tons, an increase of 2.16 million tons from Monday, or 1.15%. Compared with last Thursday, it increased by 4.22 million tons, or 2.26%. The inventory was 100.61 million tons more than the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 111.85% [8][19]. - **Demand Side** - The shipment volume and shipment rate of soda ash increased. Last week, the shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 69.10 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.48%; the overall shipment rate was 94.24%, a week - on - week increase of 1.85 percentage points [9][37]. - The daily output of the float glass industry decreased by 0.38% compared to the 10th. The weekly output from July 11 - 17, 2025, was 110.72 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.14% [25]. - As of July 17, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 64.939 billion weight boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 2.163 billion weight boxes, or 3.22%, and a year - on - year increase of 0.29%. The inventory days were 27.9 days, a decrease of 1.0 day from the previous period [29]. - **Spot Market Price** - The prices of most soda ash products in various regions remained stable, with only a few products having price changes. For example, the price of 5500 - calorie动力煤 increased by 2.25%, the price of Northeast light soda ash decreased by 3.70%, and the price of 32% caustic soda in Jiangsu decreased by 4.26% [37]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The supply side shows continuous increases in production and capacity utilization, with individual devices increasing production. The supply is adjusted at a high level. The demand side shows stable downstream demand, with an increase in shipment volume and rate. However, the demand is relatively weak, and the industry faces significant over - capacity pressure [9][37][38]. - The market is currently focused on the 'anti - involution' policy expectations. Although the market sentiment was boosted by the news of the upcoming policy from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the actual impact remains to be seen as the specific policy details are not yet available [38].

Report Information - Report Title: Glass and Soda Ash Weekly Report - Report Date: July 20, 2025 - Analyst: Zhang Chi from Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute - Investment Advisory Qualification Number: Z0011243 [1] Glass Market Supply - As of July 17, 2025, there were 296 domestic glass production lines after excluding zombie lines, with 223 in operation and 73 cold - repaired and shut down. The daily output of national float glass was 157,800 tons, a decrease of 0.38% compared to July 10. The daily loss of float glass was 42,200 tons, a 1.44% increase from the previous period, and the weekly loss was 239,000 tons, a 0.05% decrease from the previous period [2]. - In 2025, the total daily melting volume of cold - repaired lines was 10,530 tons/day, and the total daily melting volume of ignited lines was 11,510 tons/day. The potential new ignition lines had a total daily melting volume of 14,000 tons/day, and the potential old - line复产 had a total daily melting volume of 8,130 tons. The potential cold - repair lines had a total daily melting volume of 6,900 tons/day [11][12][13] - Short - term production reduction space is limited, but if demand is poor in the third quarter, there may be a certain scale of production reduction in the fourth quarter. The current in - operation capacity is about 158,000 tons/day, with a peak capacity of 178,000 tons/day in 2021 and a recent low - level capacity of 148,000 - 150,000 tons/day [17]. Demand - As of July 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.3 days, a 2.1% decrease from the previous period and a 7.0% decrease year - on - year. In mid - July, most deep - processing enterprises reported that orders basically maintained the previous level, with no sign of improvement in demand, and the current profit level was still low, with a few reporting a continued decline in orders [2]. Inventory - As of July 17, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 64.939 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 2.163 million heavy boxes from the previous period, a 3.22% decrease, and a 0.29% increase year - on - year. The inventory days were 27.9 days, a decrease of 1.0 day from the previous period. The inventory in most regions decreased slightly [3][37]. Price and Profit - This week's transactions were basically stable, with most prices unchanged. Some prices in Shahe increased by 10 yuan/ton. The price in Shahe was about 1,130 - 1,180 yuan/ton, in central China's Hubei region it was about 1,050 - 1,100 yuan/ton (some manufacturers increased prices by 20 yuan/ton), and in the eastern Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, the price of some large manufacturers was about 1,220 - 1,360 yuan/ton [20][23]. - The futures rebounded, the basis was weak, and the monthly spread was weak. The profit of petroleum coke was about - 50 yuan/ton, and the profit of natural gas and coal fuel was about - 183 - 108 yuan/ton [26][31]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating strongly, with upper pressure at 1,180 - 1,200 and lower support at 1,000 - 1,030. - Inter - period: Buy 01 and sell 09. - Inter - variety: Buy glass and sell soda ash [4]. Photovoltaic Glass Market Price and Profit - Prices declined, recent order follow - up decreased slightly, glass manufacturers' shipments were average, and inventory continued to increase. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels was 10 - 11 yuan/square meter, a 2.33% decrease from the previous period, and the decline rate increased by 0.06 percentage points compared to last week. The mainstream order price of 3.2mm coated panels was 18 - 19 yuan/square meter, remaining flat compared to the previous period [46][48]. Capacity and Inventory - As the market weakens, it may enter a production reduction cycle again. As of early July, the actual capacity was about 94,000 tons/day. The sample inventory days were about 35.64 days, a 2.94% increase from the previous period, and the increase rate narrowed by 3.86 percentage points compared to last week [50][51][55]. Soda Ash Market Supply - This week, soda ash enterprises' equipment gradually resumed and increased production. The domestic soda ash output was 733,200 tons, a 3.42% increase from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 84.10%, a 2.78% increase from the previous week. Some enterprises were in the process of maintenance or production reduction, and some were expected to have maintenance in the future [6][59]. Demand - The profits of downstream float glass processes have gradually improved, especially the profit of coal - gas production is relatively optimistic, but the production of petroleum coke and natural gas is still in a loss state. Photovoltaic glass profit is at a low level. Float glass and photovoltaic glass are generally cautious in purchasing soda ash, and demand has not expanded significantly [6]. Inventory - This period, the inventory of soda ash enterprises was 1.9056 million tons, a 2.26% increase from the previous period and a 111.85% increase year - on - year. The inventory of light soda ash was 783,000 tons, a decrease of 830,000 tons from the previous period, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 1.1226 million tons, an increase of 505,000 tons from the previous period [7]. Price and Profit - The nominal prices in Shahe and Hubei were about 1,200 - 1,300 yuan/ton. This week's prices changed little. The basis was weak, and the monthly spread was under pressure. The profit of the joint - alkali method in East China (excluding Shandong) was - 39.5 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - alkali method in North China was - 82 yuan/ton [70][73][81]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly, with upper pressure at 1,320 - 1,340 and lower support at 1,220 and 1,150. - Inter - period: Buy 01 and sell 09. - Inter - variety: Buy glass and sell soda ash [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports 2. Core Views - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures are driven by sentiment, with the spot market turning strong but the long - term outlook depending on cold - repair. Soda ash is in an oversupply situation, with inventory building up after maintenance. It is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities in soda ash and to observe the glass market [1] - **Log**: The log futures rose sharply, but the high - temperature season leads to low demand. The short - term upward trend's sustainability is questionable, and it is advisable to wait and see [2] - **Rubber**: Due to continuous rainfall in Southeast Asia and potential typhoons in Hainan, supply is disrupted, while demand is stable. Short - term rubber prices are rising, and a short - selling approach on rebounds is recommended [4] - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price of industrial silicon is stable, and the futures price has increased. The impact of rising polysilicon prices is weakening. Attention should be paid to inventory changes and large - enterprise restart plans, with a focus on price decline risks [6] - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon futures prices have reached a new high. The short - term bullish sentiment is strong, but attention should be paid to supply - demand regulation and risk management [8] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash spot prices in most regions are stable, while futures prices have increased. Some spreads have changed significantly [1] - **Supply and Demand**: Soda ash production and inventory are increasing, while float and photovoltaic melting volumes are decreasing [1] - **Real Estate Data**: Real estate indicators such as new construction area and construction area show negative growth, but the decline in some indicators has narrowed [1] Log - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Log futures prices have generally increased, while spot prices in ports are stable. The outer - market quotation has risen [2] - **Supply**: Port shipments have increased, the number of departing ships from New Zealand has decreased, and inventory has decreased [2] - **Demand**: Log demand has decreased, and the daily outbound volume has declined [2] Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Rubber spot prices have mostly increased, and the basis of some varieties has changed [4] - **Fundamental Data**: Rubber production in some countries has increased, tire production has increased slightly, and imports have decreased [4] - **Inventory Changes**: Rubber inventory in bonded areas and warehouses has changed, and the entry and exit rates of dry rubber in Qingdao have adjusted [4] Industrial Silicon - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Industrial silicon spot prices are stable, and the basis of some varieties has decreased [6] - **Monthly Data**: National and regional industrial silicon production and start - up rates have changed, and downstream product production has increased [6] - **Inventory Changes**: Factory and social inventories of industrial silicon have changed slightly, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased [6] Polysilicon - **Spot and Futures Prices**: Polysilicon spot and futures prices have increased, and the basis and spreads of some varieties have changed [8] - **Fundamental Data**: Polysilicon and silicon wafer production and import/export volumes have changed, and demand for silicon wafers has decreased [8] - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon and silicon wafer inventories have decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged [8]

| 玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/7/18 | | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/7/17 周度变化 日度变化 | 2025/7/10 | 2025/7/16 | | | | | 2025/7/10 | 2025/7/16 | | 2025/7/17 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河安全 5mm大 板 | 1160.0 | 1160.0 | 1160.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | FG09合约 | 1083.0 | 1070.0 | 1092.0 | 9.0 | 22.0 | | 沙河长城 5mm大板 | 1156.0 | 1164.0 | 1164.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | FG01合约 | 1174.0 | 1162.0 | 1168.0 | -6.0 | 6.0 | | 沙河5mm大 板低价 | 11 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - No explicit core viewpoints provided in the given content Group 3: Summary of Glass Market - **Price Changes**: From July 8 to July 15, 2025, prices of various 5mm glass products showed different trends. For example, the price of Wuhan Changli 5mm large - plate increased by 40.0, while the price of South China low - price 5mm large - plate remained unchanged [1]. - **Contract Price Changes**: FG09 and FG01 contracts had price changes. FG09 decreased by 31.0 from July 14 to July 15, and FG01 decreased by 28.0 during the same period [1]. - **Profit and Cost**: North China coal - fired profit increased from 258.5 to 285.5, and North China coal - fired cost decreased by 5.2 from July 14 to July 15 [1]. - **Spot and Sales**: In the glass spot market, the price of Shahe traders was around 1156, with average mid - stream trader shipments. In Hubei, the factory low - price was 1020 - 1040, and sales were good after price increases. Glass sales rates were 101 in Shahe, 125 in Hubei, 100 in East China, and 97 in South China [1]. Group 4: Summary of Soda Ash Market - **Price Changes**: From July 8 to July 15, 2025, prices of different types of soda ash also changed. For instance, the price of Shahe heavy soda decreased by 30.0 from July 14 to July 15 [1]. - **Contract Price Changes**: SA05, SA01, and SA09 contracts all had price fluctuations. SA09 decreased by 27.0 from July 14 to July 15 [1]. - **Profit and Cost**: North China ammonia - soda profit decreased by 31.3 from July 14 to July 15, and North China ammonia - soda cost increased by 1.3 during the same period [1]. - **Spot and Industry Situation**: The spot price of heavy soda in Hebei delivery warehouses was around 1180, and the price delivered to Shahe was around 1200, with average downstream purchasing willingness. Factory inventories of soda ash were accumulating [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The glass market shows different trends in various regions. In Shahe, the price of 5mm large - plate glass is relatively stable, with some minor changes. The glass production and sales rates vary by region, with Hubei having a high production - sales rate of 150, while Shahe is at 94, East China at 98, and South China at 101. The profit of glass production also shows different situations in different regions and using different energy sources [1]. - The soda ash market has seen price increases in some areas. However, the downstream拿货意愿 (willingness to purchase) is weak, and factory inventories are accumulating [1]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Glass Price - The prices of 5mm large - plate glass in Shahe, such as those of Shahe Anquan and Shahe Great Wall, are mostly stable, with only Shahe Great Wall increasing by 4.0 from July 7 to July 14. The lowest price in Shahe increased by 30.0 from July 7 to July 11 but decreased by 4.0 on July 14 compared to July 11. In Wuhan Changli and Hubei, the prices remained unchanged during the period. The lowest price in South China remained at 1400.0, and the price in Shandong also remained stable [1]. - For glass futures contracts, FG09 increased from 1019.0 on July 7 to 1102.0 on July 14, and FG01 increased from 1114.0 to 1196.0 during the same period [1]. Profit - The profit of North China coal - fired glass increased by 10.3 from July 7 to July 11 but decreased by 10.3 on July 14 compared to July 11. The profit of South China natural - gas glass remained at - 118.6. The profit of North China natural - gas glass increased by 13.2 from July 7 to July 11 but decreased by 10.3 on July 14 compared to July 11. The profit of 09FG and 01FG natural - gas on the futures market also increased during the period [1]. Market Conditions - The price of glass in Shahe's trading market is around 1156, and the sales of middle - stream traders are average, with only a small amount of futures - spot trading. In Hubei, the factory's lowest price is 1010 - 1020, and the manufacturers have raised prices with good sales. The new futures price is 960, with average trading volume [1]. Soda Ash Price - The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe increased from 1160.0 on July 7 to 1230.0 on July 14. The price in Central China increased from 1130.0 to 1210.0, and the price in South China remained at 1400.0. The price of light soda ash in North China and Central China increased by 80.0 from July 7 to July 14 [1]. - For soda ash futures contracts, SA05 increased from 1236.0 on July 7 to 1311.0 on July 14, SA01 increased from 1207.0 to 1286.0, and SA09 increased from 1168.0 to 1241.0 [1]. Profit - The profit of North China ammonia - soda method increased by 74.3 from July 7 to July 14 and by 29.4 on July 14 compared to July 11. The profit of North China combined - soda method increased by 81.9 from July 7 to July 14 and by 31.8 on July 14 compared to July 11 [1]. Market Conditions - The spot price of heavy soda ash at the Hebei delivery warehouse is around 1210, and the price delivered to Shahe is around 1230. The downstream's willingness to purchase is weak, and factory inventories are accumulating [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current profit of some soda ash enterprises is slightly in the red, and the domestic soda ash production is expected to rise to a high level this week. The downstream demand for soda ash is expected to be moderately weak. The expected output of downstream float glass will increase, while the daily melting volume of downstream photovoltaic glass is expected to decline. Against the backdrop of a loose supply - demand situation for soda ash, the inventory of soda ash enterprises has risen to a high level, and it is expected that the soda ash inventory will remain at a high level in the near future. The soda ash price is expected to fluctuate in the near term, with the upper pressure on the 09 contract at the 1270 level. It is recommended to short on rallies in the short - term and pay attention to setting stop - losses [2][21]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Market Review - The domestic soda ash market has shown a weak trend, with prices gradually declining. The weekly domestic soda ash production was 709,000 tons, remaining the same as the previous week. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 81.32%, also unchanged from the previous week. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8634 million tons, an increase of 53,900 tons or 2.98% from the previous week. The enterprises' shipment slowed down, and some enterprises' inventories accumulated. The pending orders of soda ash enterprises increased to over 12 days, an increase of about 2 days [8]. Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply - side**: As of July 10, the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 81.32%, the same as the previous week. The ammonia - alkali capacity utilization rate was 82.56%, a 1.24% increase, and the co - production capacity utilization rate was 70.33%, a 3.04% decrease. This week, the soda ash operating rate is expected to exceed 84%. The theoretical profit of China's co - production soda ash (double - ton) was - 39.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan/ton from the previous week. The theoretical profit of China's ammonia - alkali soda ash was - 82.30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous week [12]. - **Demand - side**: As of July 10, the capacity utilization rate of photovoltaic glass was 71.01%, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The industry's production reduction rhythm is slow, demand is weak, and the high - inventory situation is difficult to reverse. The national daily output of float glass was 158,400 tons, a 0.41% increase from July 3. The weekly output of float glass was 1.107 million tons, a 0.33% increase from the previous week and a 7.16% decrease from the same period last year [15]. - **Inventory**: As of July 10, the inventory of soda ash enterprises was 1.8634 million tons, a 2.98% increase from the previous week and a 106.22% increase from the same period last year. The inventory of soda ash enterprises continued to increase due to the poor purchasing enthusiasm of major downstream enterprises and weak follow - up of new orders [17]. 2.2 Position Analysis - As of July 11, the long positions of the top 20 members in the soda ash futures market were 1,166,121, an increase of 56,509, and the short positions were 1,558,689, an increase of 94,504. The net positions of the top 20 members were bearish [19]. Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The current profit of some soda ash enterprises is slightly in the red, and the domestic soda ash production is expected to rise to a high level this week. The downstream demand for soda ash is expected to be moderately weak. The expected output of downstream float glass will increase, while the daily melting volume of downstream photovoltaic glass is expected to decline. Against the backdrop of a loose supply - demand situation for soda ash, the inventory of soda ash enterprises has risen to a high level, and it is expected that the soda ash inventory will remain at a high level in the near future. The soda ash price is expected to fluctuate in the near term, with the upper pressure on the 09 contract at the 1270 level. It is recommended to short on rallies in the short - term and pay attention to setting stop - losses [2][21].

Group 1: Natural Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View Short - term rubber prices rebound due to macro - sentiment, but the weak fundamental expectation remains unchanged. Adopt a short - selling approach on rallies, and consider short positions in the 14,000 - 14,500 range. Pay attention to raw material supply in each production area and US tariff changes [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased by 100 yuan/ton to 14,350 yuan/ton, with a 0.70% increase. The basis of whole - milk rubber (switched to the 2509 contract) rose by 145 to - 10, a 93.55% increase. Other raw material prices showed various changes [2]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 10 to - 860, a 1.15% increase; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 15 to - 40, a 27.27% increase; the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 25 to 900, a - 2.70% decrease [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, Thailand's rubber production increased by 166,500 tons to 272,200 tons, a 157.52% increase. The operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased. The domestic tire production decreased slightly, while the tire export volume increased. The import volume of natural rubber decreased [2]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded - area inventory increased by 14,802 tons to 632,090 tons, a 2.40% increase. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 7,258 tons to 36,994 tons, a 24.41% increase [2]. Group 2: Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View For soda ash, although the futures price rebounded due to macro - sentiment and spot trading improved, the supply - demand situation remains in an obvious surplus, and inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to wait and look for short - selling opportunities after the sentiment fades. For glass, although the futures price is strong due to macro - sentiment, the demand is under pressure in the off - season, and the industry needs capacity reduction. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass in North China, East China, Central China, and South China showed small changes. The prices of glass futures contracts 2505 and 2509 increased slightly [4]. - **Soda - ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of soda ash in different regions remained stable. The prices of soda ash futures contracts 2505 and 2509 decreased slightly [4]. - **Supply Data**: The operating rate of soda ash remained unchanged, and the weekly production was stable. The daily melting volume of float glass increased slightly, while the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass remained unchanged [4]. - **Inventory Data**: The glass market inventory decreased by 198,300 square meters to 67.102 million square meters, a - 2.87% decrease. The soda - ash factory inventory and delivery - warehouse inventory increased [4]. - **Real - estate Data**: The year - on - year changes in new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area showed different trends [4]. Group 3: Log Futures Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View In the fundamental aspect, the demand for logs enters the off - season from June to August. The arrival volume remains low, and the supply is expected to decrease seasonally. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. Be vigilant against emotional price increases [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The prices of log futures contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 decreased slightly. The prices of some spot logs decreased, while the outer - market quotation increased [5]. - **Supply**: The port shipment volume increased by 228,000 cubic meters to 1.955 million cubic meters, a 13.20% increase. The number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 5 to 58, a - 7.94% decrease [5]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of coniferous logs in China decreased by 130,000 cubic meters to 3.23 million cubic meters, a - 3.87% decrease [5]. - **Demand**: The average daily outbound volume increased by 12,000 cubic meters to 669,000 cubic meters [5]. Group 4: Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View The price of industrial silicon increased due to the expectation of anti - involution policies, with less impact from supply - demand fundamentals. The supply is expected to increase further. Technically, it shows a strong - side fluctuation. In the short - term, it is expected to remain strong, but short - selling can be considered if large - scale enterprises resume production or the price of polysilicon drops. Risk management is recommended [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The prices of different grades of industrial silicon in East China and Xinjiang increased. The basis of different grades decreased [6]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts showed various changes [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the national industrial silicon production increased by 20,000 tons to 327,700 tons, a 6.50% increase. The production of related downstream products also changed [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: The factory - warehouse inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 26,200 tons to 123,900 tons, a - 17.46% decrease. The social inventory decreased slightly [6]. Group 5: Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View The price of polysilicon increased rapidly under the expectation of policies, but the market is cautious about the new price. There is a large discount in the futures market, and there is room for price repair. The market may fluctuate greatly next week. Attention should be paid to the price of P - type cauliflower - like polysilicon and risk management [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The average prices of different types of polysilicon remained stable, while the basis of some types increased slightly [7]. - **Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads**: The prices of polysilicon futures contracts and the spreads between different contracts showed various changes [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: The weekly production of silicon wafers and polysilicon decreased. The monthly production of polysilicon increased, while the import and export volumes changed [7]. - **Inventory Changes**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 4,000 tons to 276,000 tons, a 1.47% increase. The silicon - wafer inventory decreased [7].