Core Viewpoint - The silicon manganese market is currently characterized by "cost-driven enhancement, increased supply-demand dynamics, and price fluctuations with a wait-and-see attitude" [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Cost support for silicon manganese is continuously strengthening [1] - The improvement in the supply-demand structure of silicon manganese itself is limited [1] - As steel procurement gradually unfolds, market sentiment remains cautious [1] Group 2: Price Changes - The price range for silicon manganese 6517 increased from 5350-5500 to 5450-5550 in the northern market and from 5400-5550 to 5550-5650 in the southern market between November 28 and December 6 [2] - The alloy index for silicon manganese 6517 rose from 2555 to 5685 in Hebei region, cash inclusive [2] - Prices for Australian Mn42-43% and Mn45-46% increased from 40.5-43 to 41.5-44.5 at Tianjin Port [2] - Gabonese Mn45% prices rose from 42-43 to 43-44 at Tianjin Port [2] - South African semi-carbonate Mn36-37% prices remained stable at 34.5 at Tianjin Port [2]

继续关注12月密集宏观事件及其可 能引发的市场情绪拐点 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 锰硅月报 2025/12/05 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 供给及需求 02 期现市场 05 库存 03 利润及成本 06 图形走势 产业链示意图 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度要点小结 ◆ 天津6517锰硅现货市场报价5720元/吨，环比+90元/吨，较上月初+20元/吨；期货主力（SM603）收盘报5796元/吨，环比+180元/吨，较上月 初-22元/吨；基差114元/吨，环比-90元/吨，基差率1.94%，处于历史统计值的相对中性水平。 ◆ 利润：锰硅测算即期利润（不含折旧等费用）维持低位，内蒙-565元/吨，环比+20元/吨，较上月初-147元/吨；宁夏-651元/吨，环比+30元 /吨，较上月初-147元/吨；广西-748元/吨，环比+127元/吨，较上月初-9元/吨。（利润为测算值，仅供参考） ◆ 成本：测算内蒙锰硅即期成本（不含折旧等费用)在6095元/吨，环比+10元/ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall finished steel is supported by raw material costs, with gradually improving profits. The market may pre - trade market expectations, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate moderately. The operating range of rebar may be between 3000 - 3300, and that of hot - rolled coil between 3200 - 3500. Attention should be paid to the destocking speed of steel and downstream consumption [3]. - Steel demand has entered the off - season, and steel mills have actively carried out maintenance and production cuts. After the reduction in steel production, steel inventory has been destocked, and the contradictions in the industrial chain have been alleviated. The price of coking coal has generally declined, benefiting steel mills, and the profits of steel mills have recently increased. Steel mills now have the space and motivation for new production increases. Steel currently has low raw material inventory and has the demand for winter storage replenishment. With the approaching of the Fed's interest - rate meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference, macro - expectations provide support, and the short - term price decline space is limited [21]. - For coking coal, the marginal change in supply is limited, but the profits of terminal steel mills are under pressure, and the production of hot metal has been continuously reduced. The supply and demand of coking coal have turned into a slight surplus. Coking enterprises are actively controlling the raw material procurement rhythm due to the expected price cuts, and the inventory pressure on upstream mines is becoming apparent. Short - term coal prices will still be under pressure. For coke, as the cost of coking coal has decreased, the immediate coking profit has recovered, and the subsequent coke supply is expected to increase. As the coking enterprises' production gradually resumes, coke may face inventory accumulation pressure. Attention should be paid to the price - cut rhythm of mainstream steel mills. Considering that the futures market has already priced in 4 - 5 rounds of price cuts in advance, the spot price of coke may face more than 2 rounds of price - cut pressure [31]. - Ferroalloys face the fundamentals of high inventory and weak demand. The cost center may decline due to the impact of coking coal supply guarantee, but the supply side maintains the trend of production cuts, so the downward space for ferroalloys is limited, and they are expected to fluctuate weakly. Recently, the price of finished steel has been relatively strong, and the market may pre - hype market expectations, driving the rebound of ferroalloys. However, due to the weak fundamentals of ferroalloys themselves, they may return to their own fundamentals after the rebound [47]. - Soda ash is mainly priced based on cost. Although the cost - side expectation is firm, the valuation has no upward elasticity without a trend - based production cut. The cold repair of glass has accelerated, and the expected rigid demand for soda ash has further weakened. The expectation of maintaining a high - level supply of soda ash in the medium and long term remains unchanged. Photovoltaic glass has started inventory accumulation at a low level, and the daily melting volume is relatively stable, and the balance of heavy soda ash continues to be in surplus. In October, the export of soda ash exceeded 210,000 tons, remaining at a high level, which continues to relieve the domestic pressure to a certain extent. The high - level inventory in the upstream and mid - stream restricts the price of soda ash [61]. - In December, the expectation of cold repair of glass production lines has resurfaced, and the implementation situation is to be determined, which will definitely affect the far - month pricing and market expectations. However, the near - month 01 contract will still follow the reality (delivery logic), and the key lies in the spot price in Hubei and the expectation of warehouse receipts. In reality, with the recent acceleration of cold repair and the expected further decline in daily melting volume, but the terminal has entered the off - season, and the inventory of futures, cash, and traders in Shahe and Hubei remains at a high level, so there is still pressure on the spot price. The degree of inventory destocking in the mid - stream should be observed [84]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Spreads** - On December 5, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3137, 3157, and 3192 respectively, and those of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3312, 3320, and 3329 respectively [4]. - The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions showed slight changes on December 5, 2025. For example, the aggregated price of rebar in China was 3326 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3300 yuan/ton [9][11]. - The 01 - 05, 05 - 10, and 10 - 01 month - spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil also changed compared with the previous day [4]. - The 01, 05, and 10 contract ratios of rebar to iron ore and coke remained unchanged at 4 and 2 respectively on December 5, 2025 [18]. - **Seasonal Data** - Seasonal charts of rebar and hot - rolled coil's futures prices, month - spreads, and basis were provided [5][6][7]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads** - On December 5, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 785.5, 769, and 744 respectively, with daily changes of - 9, - 8, and - 9 respectively [22]. - The basis of iron ore 01, 05, and 09 contracts and the prices of different iron ore varieties in Rizhao also showed certain changes [22]. - **Fundamentals** - On December 5, 2025, the daily average hot - metal production was 232.3 tons, a weekly decrease of 2.38 tons and a monthly decrease of 1.92 tons. The 45 - port desulfurization volume was 318.45 tons, a weekly decrease of 12.13 tons and a monthly decrease of 2.48 tons. Other indicators such as global shipping volume, 45 - port inventory, and 247 - steel - mill inventory also changed [25]. - **Seasonal Data** - Seasonal charts of iron ore's futures month - spreads and basis were provided [23][24]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Prices and Spreads** - The month - spreads of coking coal and coke, such as 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05, showed different degrees of changes on December 5, 2025. The immediate coking profit, main mine - coke ratio, main rebar - coke ratio, and main coke - coal ratio also changed [35]. - The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions and different types showed certain fluctuations on December 5, 2025 [38]. - **Seasonal Data** - Seasonal charts of coking coal and coke's futures month - spreads, basis, and coking profit were provided [40][41][42]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron** - On December 5, 2025, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was - 24, with a daily increase of 72. The 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 month - spreads also changed. The spot prices of silicon iron in different regions remained relatively stable, and indicators such as the price of semi - coke small materials and the price of thermal coal also showed certain changes [48]. - **Silicon Manganese** - On December 5, 2025, the silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 122, with a daily increase of 38. The 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 month - spreads changed. The spot prices of silicon manganese in different regions increased slightly, and the prices of different ores and the inventory of silicon manganese also changed [49][50]. - **Seasonal Data** - Seasonal charts of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese's production costs, profits, month - spreads, and basis were provided [51][52][53]. Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads** - On December 5, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1213, 1275, and 1137 respectively, with daily changes of - 19, - 19, and - 25 respectively. The month - spreads (5 - 9), (9 - 1), and (1 - 5) also changed. The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions remained stable, and the difference between heavy and light soda ash also remained unchanged in most regions [62]. - **Seasonal Data** - Seasonal charts of soda ash's futures prices, month - spreads, basis, inventory, production capacity utilization, and production were provided [63][64][65]. Glass - **Prices and Spreads** - On December 5, 2025, the closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1115, 1176, and 994 respectively, with daily changes of - 16, - 12, and - 16 respectively. The month - spreads (5 - 9), (9 - 1), and (1 - 5) also changed. The basis of different contracts in Shahe and Hubei also changed [85]. - **Sales and Production** - The daily sales - to - production ratios of glass in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China showed different degrees of fluctuations from November 28 to December 4, 2025 [86]. - **Seasonal Data** - Seasonal charts of glass's futures prices, month - spreads, basis, inventory, daily melting volume, and sales - to - production ratio were provided [87][88][89].

黑色供应周报-铁合金 2025年12月5日 中泰期货研究所 黑色分析师:董雪珊 从业资格号:F3075616 交易咨询从业证书号 Z0018025 | | 罐 | | 万吨 | | | 健鉄 | 万吨 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 地区 | 周产 | 环比(吨) | 累计同比 | 地区 | 周产 | 环比(吨) | 累计同比 | | 全国 | 18.80 | (6825) | (14.21) | 全国 | 10.88 | 1540 | 2.07 | | 内蒙古 | 9.67 | (910) | 0.16 | 内蒙古 | 3.80 | 0 | 4.06 | | 宁夏 | 4.19 | (1505) | 12.71 | 宁夏 | 2.72 | 1050 | 10.27 | | 广西 | 0.95 | (1260) | 0.00 | 陕西 | 1.89 | 490 | (0.06) | | 贵州 | 1.21 | (2800) | (16.45) | 青海 | 1.39 | 0 | (12.85) | | 云南 | 0.68 | (560 ...

银河期货研究所 周涛 期货从业证号：F03134259 投资咨询证号：Z0021009 成本推动短期反弹，需求压制上方空间 目录 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第三章 周度数据追踪 6 1 资料来源：Wind Bloomberg Mysteel GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 文 字 色 基 础 色 硅铁方面，供应端硅铁样本企业产量小幅反弹，但11月电价陆续结算，产区电价整体上涨，加剧厂家亏损态势，未来硅铁产量预计 重回下降趋势。需求方面，钢联数据显示，钢材表需开始季节性下降，使得钢材产量继续下降。从高炉检修计划推算，未来生铁产 量预计仍将震荡下行，原料需求仍有下行压力。成本端方面，近期产区铁合金电价稳中偏强，对硅铁有所支撑。总体来看，电价偏 强支撑短期反弹，但上方空间受需求压制。 锰硅方面，供应端锰硅延续了近期的收缩趋势 ...

2025 年 12 月 5 日 硅铁：电费成本抬升，偏强震荡 锰硅：矿端报价坚挺，偏强震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅铁2603 | 5546 | 100 | 306,562 | 259,334 | | 期 货 | 硅铁2605 | 5506 | 9 8 | 20,468 | 51,580 | | | 锰硅2601 | 5778 | 5 4 | 136,042 | 161,144 | | | 锰硅2605 | 5828 | 5 6 | 86,422 | 151,232 | | | 项 目 | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | 单 位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现 货 | 硅铁:FeSi75-B:汇总价格: ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season, and the hot - rolled coil still faces inventory pressure, with difficulties in inventory reduction. Attention should be paid to the tone of important meetings [2]. - The overall inventory of iron ore remains high, and there is no sign of effectively resolving the inventory structural contradiction. The impact of macro - pricing will gradually strengthen in December [5]. - For the black sector, it may be more cost - effective to look for opportunities to make rebounds rather than continue to short, as macro factors are more important [9][10]. - Industrial silicon shows a short - term weak operation with a supply - demand weak pattern and limited marginal changes [13]. - Polysilicon faces challenges in reducing inventory pressure before the Chinese New Year, and there are risks in the near - month contract due to delivery games [15]. - The glass industry is still in the bottom - seeking stage, with the supply - demand contradiction not effectively resolved, and the market is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations [18]. - The soda ash market is expected to maintain a stable price in the short term, but it should still be viewed bearishly before the demand improves [20]. Summary by Category Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3175 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (0.189%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 441,41 tons, unchanged. The main contract position increased by 114,799 lots to 1,411,905 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3210 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3300 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3332 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (0.391%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 113,732 tons, unchanged. The main contract position increased by 492,093 lots to 1,034,595 lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coil was 3340 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3300 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. Strategy Viewpoints - This week, rebar production declined significantly, inventory continued to decrease, and the overall performance was neutral. Hot - rolled coil production decreased, apparent demand was neutral, inventory reduction was difficult, and the social inventory level was high. The steel demand has entered the off - season, and the hot - rolled coil inventory pressure remains [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 794.50 yuan/ton, down 0.63% (- 5.00). The position decreased by 41,114 lots to 293,700 lots. The weighted position was 949,800 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 793 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 47.96 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.69% [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume remained stable. Australian shipments decreased slightly, mainly due to the decline of Rio Tinto and FMG shipments. Brazilian shipments increased significantly, and non - mainstream country shipments decreased slightly. The near - end arrival volume decreased. In terms of demand, the average daily hot metal output was 232.3 tons, down 2.38 tons. The number of blast furnace overhauls was more than that of restarts, and annual inspections increased. The steel mill profitability rate rebounded slightly after continuous decline, but less than 40% of steel mills were profitable. In the inventory aspect, port inventory continued to increase, and steel mill inventory increased slightly. Overall, the iron ore inventory is still high, and there is no sign of resolving the inventory structural contradiction [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On December 4, affected by the increase in settlement electricity prices in Qinghai and Ningxia and the sentiment of coking coal, ferroalloys rebounded significantly. The main contract of manganese silicon (SM603) closed up 0.87% at 5796 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, with a premium of 114 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed up 1.84% at 5546 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5600 yuan/ton, with a premium of 54 yuan/ton over the futures [7][8]. Strategy Viewpoints - The market sentiment has improved, but there is still differentiation among commodity sectors. The black sector is weak, and ferroalloys are also affected by the weak coking coal sentiment. It is not necessary to be overly pessimistic, and the positive impact of macro - events in December on market sentiment is worth expecting. For the black sector, it may be more cost - effective to look for opportunities to make rebounds. The fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal, but it is difficult for its own fundamentals to drive the price down significantly. The supply - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions or drivers, and the operability is relatively low [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) closed at 8910 yuan/ton, down 0.11% (- 10). The weighted position increased by 12,668 lots to 413,311 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygenated industrial silicon in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract was 440 yuan/ton. The spot price of 421 was 9800 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract was 90 yuan/ton [12]. - The main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) closed at 56,915 yuan/ton, down 0.90% (- 515). The weighted position decreased by 1,608 lots to 276,578 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50 yuan/kg, down 0.5 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.3 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg. The basis of the main contract was - 4615 yuan/ton [14]. Strategy Viewpoints - Industrial silicon shows short - term weak operation. The weekly output continues to decline, and the marginal decline has slowed down significantly. The demand from polysilicon in December is weakening, the demand from organic silicon is stable in the short term, and the demand from silicon - aluminum alloy has increased, but the export has decreased significantly in October. The cost support is stable, and the supply - demand pattern has limited marginal changes [13]. - The production of polysilicon in December is expected to continue to decline, but the decline may be limited due to the capacity ramp - up in some northwest bases. The downstream silicon wafer production is expected to decrease significantly, and the inventory pressure before the Chinese New Year is difficult to relieve. The downstream prices are weak, while the upstream silicon enterprises still maintain high prices. The near - month contract has high risks due to delivery games, and attention should be paid to the final establishment of the platform company [15]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The glass main contract closed at 1010 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, down 0.98% (- 10). The price of large - sized glass in North China was 1070 yuan, unchanged; the price in Central China was 1110 yuan, down 10 yuan. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 59.442 million cases, down 2.92 million cases (- 4.68%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced 20,182 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 23,024 lots [17]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1162 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, down 0.26% (- 3). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1132 yuan, down 3 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.5386 million tons, down 48,800 tons (- 4.68%), including 810,800 tons of heavy soda ash inventory, down 36,000 tons, and 727,800 tons of light soda ash inventory, down 12,800 tons. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 14,611 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 19,616 lots [19]. Strategy Viewpoints - The supply of glass has decreased due to the cold - repair of production lines by many enterprises last week, and the market sentiment has briefly improved, but the overall spot market trading is still light, and the manufacturers still face great pressure in shipping. The inventory has decreased slightly, and the futures price has rebounded due to short - covering. The industry is still in the bottom - seeking stage, and the market is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. Attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream orders and the implementation of cold - repair production lines [18]. - The production capacity of soda ash has increased slightly due to the resumption of production of previously overhauled devices. The mainstream market supply meets the demand, and the inventory has decreased slightly. Light soda ash supply is locally tight, and the demand is relatively stable. Heavy soda ash demand is weak due to the decline in the glass industry. The soda ash price remains stable in the short term, but it should be viewed bearishly before the demand improves [20].

2025年12月05日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：下游需求空间有限，估值偏高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：市场多空博弈，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：市场多空博弈，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：电费成本抬升，偏强震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：矿端报价坚挺，偏强震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：低位震荡 | 8 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 2025 年 12 月 5 日 铁矿石：下游需求空间有限，估值偏高 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy, on December 5, 2025, the latest price of Ningxia 72 silicon ferroalloy natural block was 5100, unchanged from the previous day and week; the latest price of Inner Mongolia 72 was 5170, unchanged from the previous day but up 50 from the previous week. The export price of Tianjin 72 silicon ferroalloy was 1020 US dollars, down 10 from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week [2]. - For silicon - manganese alloy, on December 5, 2025, the latest ex - factory price of Inner Mongolia 6517 was 5530, unchanged from the previous day but up 30 from the previous week; the latest price of Ningxia 6517 was 5520, unchanged from the previous day but up 40 from the previous week [2]. Supply - The production data of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including monthly production volume, weekly production volume (with a capacity share of 95%), and monthly capacity utilization rates in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi [4]. - The production data of silicon - manganese alloy in China from 2021 - 2025 are shown, including weekly production volume, and procurement prices and quantities of Hebei Steel Group [6]. Demand - The demand data of silicon - manganese alloy in China from 2021 - 2025 are provided, including the demand volume (in ten thousand tons, according to the Steel Union's caliber), and the relationship with the estimated and actual production volume of crude steel in China [4][7]. - The demand - related data of silicon ferroalloy are related to the production of crude steel, stainless steel, and the procurement of Hebei Steel Group [4]. Inventory - The inventory data of 60 sample silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including the total inventory in China, and the inventory in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi on a weekly basis. Also, data on the number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of them are provided [5]. - The inventory data of silicon - manganese alloy from 2021 - 2025 are shown, including the total number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of inventory, as well as the inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China on a weekly basis [7]. Cost and Profit - For silicon ferroalloy, the cost - related data such as electricity prices in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Shaanxi, and the market price of semi - coke in Shaanxi from 2021 - 2025 are provided. Also, the production cost and profit data in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia are presented [5]. - For silicon - manganese alloy, the cost - related data such as the ex - factory price of chemical coke in Ordos, and the summary prices of various manganese ores from 2021 - 2025 are provided. The profit data in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern and southern regions are also shown [6][7].

Report Overview - Report Date: December 4, 2025 - Report Type: Black Metal Daily Report (Ferroalloy) - Researcher: Zhou Tao [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Cost drives short - term rebounds in ferroalloy futures, but future demand pressure restricts the rebound height [5]. - For single - sided trading, expect short - term rebounds driven by cost but be cautious about the limited upside due to demand pressure; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information 3.1.1 Futures - SF主力合约 closed at 5546, up 100 for the day and 156 for the week, with a trading volume of 306,562 (up 75,654) and an open interest of 259,817 (down 483) [3]. - SM主力合约 closed at 5796, up 50 for the day and 168 for the week, with a trading volume of 290,333 (up 187,890) and an open interest of 252,039 (up 52,021) [3]. 3.1.2 Spot - Silicon iron spot prices were mostly stable on the 4th. For example, 72%FeSi in Inner Mongolia was 5,250, unchanged for the day and up 50 for the week [3]. - Manganese silicon spot prices were stable to slightly stronger, with some regions up 20 yuan/ton. For example, silicon manganese 6517 in Tianjin was up 20 yuan/ton for the day and 90 yuan/ton for the week [3]. 3.1.3 Basis/Spread - For silicon iron, the basis between Inner Mongolia and the main contract was - 296 (down 100 for the day and 106 for the week) [3]. - The SF - SM spread was - 250, up 50 for the day and down 12 for the week [3]. 3.1.4 Raw Materials - Manganese ore spot prices in Tianjin showed mixed trends on the 4th. Australian lumps rose 0.2 yuan/ton - degree, and semi - carbonates fell 0.1 yuan/ton - degree [3][5]. - Lanthanum charcoal small materials' prices in Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [3]. 3.2 Market Judgment 3.2.1 Trading Strategy - **Silicon Iron**: Cost - driven short - term rebound, but limited upside due to demand. In November, power prices in production areas increased, exacerbating losses and expected to reduce future output. Although steel profits have recovered, steel production is still declining [5]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Cost - driven short - term rebound, but future demand pressure exists. Manganese ore port inventories are at a low level, and the spot price is strong, but steel demand for manganese silicon is weakening [5]. 3.2.2 Unilateral, Arbitrage, and Option Strategies - Unilateral: Short - term rebound driven by cost, but limited upside due to demand pressure [6]. - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines [6]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [6]. 3.2.3 Important Information - On the 4th, the transaction price of semi - carbonates at Tianjin Port was around 34.3 yuan/ton - degree, Gabon lumps around 43 yuan/ton - degree, etc. [7]. - In November, power prices in Qinghai continued to rise by 3 - 6 cents, and some enterprises in Qinghai plan to stop production due to increased losses. Power prices in Ningxia were stable with a slight increase of 1 cent [7]. 3.3 Related Attachments - The report includes multiple charts such as ferroalloy main contract trends, basis, and cost - profit charts, which visually display the price trends and cost - profit situations of silicon iron and manganese silicon [11][12][15][18][20]