1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Overall Viewpoint**: The report analyzes the black - chain industry, including various products such as steel products, iron ore, coal - coke, and ferroalloys. It points out that different products have different market trends, with overall market conditions affected by factors like supply - demand relationships, production capacity utilization, and macro - policies [9][10][13]. - **Specific Product Viewpoints**: - **Steel Products**: The steel market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with steel prices expected to oscillate at a low level. The overall trend is weak [9]. - **Iron Ore**: In the short term, iron ore prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, supported by pre - holiday restocking. The price of the main contract (2601 contract) is expected to range between 790 - 820 yuan/ton, corresponding to an external market FE10 price of about 105 - 108 US dollars/ton [10]. - **Coal - Coke**: In the short term, the rapid resumption of production at both the supply and demand ends of coal - coke, especially the rapid increase in hot metal production, supports the rigid demand for raw materials. Pre - holiday restocking by downstream industries is expected to boost market sentiment [12]. - **Ferroalloys**: The market has entered the traditional peak season, but the short - term demand is still not up to expectations. The market sentiment is cautious. Ferroalloys maintain a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with inventory pressure increasing, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: From September 5th to September 12th, 2025, the prices of various products showed different trends. For example, the price of the RB2601 contract of rebar decreased by 16 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.51%, and the spot price of HRB400E: Φ20 in Shanghai decreased by 20 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.62%. The price of the HC2601 contract of hot - rolled coil increased by 24 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.72%, and the spot price in Shanghai increased by 20 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.59% [7]. 3.2 This Week's Black Market Forecast - **Steel Products**: The supply is strong and the demand is weak. Last week, the scale of steel mill maintenance decreased significantly, and the scale of resumption of production increased. The daily average hot metal output increased, but the downstream demand was weak, dragging down steel prices. The overall trend is weak [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is expected to increase steadily. Although the demand has increased in the short term due to pre - holiday restocking, in the medium term, the supply - demand relationship is changing from tight to balanced. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [10]. - **Coal - Coke**: The futures prices oscillated last week, with a slight weekly decline. The coking coal market is generally weak, but there are expectations for pre - National Day restocking. The rapid increase in hot metal production supports the demand for raw materials, and pre - holiday restocking is expected to boost market sentiment [12]. - **Ferroalloys**: The demand is not up to expectations for the time being. The supply is relatively high, and the inventory is increasing. The prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [13]. 3.3 Product Data 3.3.1 Steel Products - **Rebar**: Last week, the output was 211.93 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.75 tons; the apparent demand was 198.07 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.00 tons. The total inventory was 653.86 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13.86 tons [15][23]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Last week, the output was 325.14 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.90 tons; the apparent demand was 326.16 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20.80 tons. The total inventory was 373.32 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.02 tons [29][33]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Port Inventory**: This week, the total import ore port inventory was 13849.47 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24.15 tons; the port Australian ore inventory was 5806.51 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 69.51 tons; the port Brazilian ore inventory was 5228.22 tons, a week - on - week increase of 109.26 tons [44]. - **Steel Mill Inventory and Consumption**: This week, the inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8993.05 tons, a week - on - week increase of 53.18 tons; the daily consumption was 296.65 tons/day, a week - on - week increase of 15.98 tons [54]. 3.3.3 Coal - Coke - **Coke Inventory**: Last week, the total coke inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + ports) was 906.21 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.95 tons [84]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Last week, the total coking coal inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + coal mines + ports + coal washing plants) was 2483.41 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 62.28 tons [98]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - **Spot Prices**: Last week, the price of semi - carbonated manganese ore in Tianjin Port was 33.8 yuan/dry ton degree, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 yuan; the spot price of ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia was 5650 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan; the spot price of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was 5280 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan [121]. - **Production and Demand**: Last week, the output of 187 independent ferromanganese enterprises was 214130 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1295 tons; the demand for ferromanganese in five major steel products decreased by 1.09% week - on - week [129][133].

Report Date - The report is dated September 15, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Steel market: The steel fundamentals are under significant pressure, with super - seasonal inventory accumulation leading to a contraction in steel mill profits and an increasing negative feedback risk, which suppresses the upside space of the market. However, expectations for peak - season demand, positive macro - expectations, and anticipated pre - National Day restocking by downstream and steel mills support the raw material end, limiting the downside space. The steel market is expected to show a volatile consolidation pattern in the near term [3] - Iron ore market: Short - term iron ore prices are strong due to tight supply and rising demand. However, weak steel demand and shrinking steel mill profits cap the upside of iron ore prices. There may also be a risk of "good news being fully priced in" [19] - Coal and coke market: Except for rebar, other steel products in the blast furnace process still have profits, so blast furnace steel mills have weak willingness to cut production. Electric furnace steel mills are suffering significant losses, with some regions having production resumptions and others cut - offs. High steel supply and inventory pressure will limit the rebound height of coal and coke prices in the short term. In the medium - to - long term, the "anti - involution" theme remains a focus, and pre - National Day inventory transfers may improve the supply - demand structure. The coal and coke market is expected to maintain a wide - range volatile pattern [31] - Ferroalloy market: The trading logic for ferroalloys in the long - term lies in the "anti - involution" expectation. After the price decline, ferroalloys are near the cost line, limiting the downside. The market still has expectations for supply - side contraction, and the supply - demand pressure may ease as production profit declines and the output in the southern silicon - manganese producing areas is expected to fall [49] - Soda ash market: Market sentiment and focus will fluctuate, and factors affecting supply or cost will be repeatedly traded. Soda ash demand is stable, but the supply - demand pattern remains one of strong supply and weak demand, with high inventories in the upstream and mid - stream capping prices [64] - Glass market: High inventories in the upstream and mid - stream and weak demand limit the price increase. There are differences in opinions regarding potential supply cuts in the fourth quarter, so the glass price lacks a clear trend and trading logic. The short - term supply - demand pattern is one of strong supply and weak demand [89] Summary by Directory Steel - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 15, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3136, 3205, and 3045 yuan/ton respectively; those of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3370, 3374, and 3398 yuan/ton respectively [4] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions showed slight changes from September 12 to September 15, 2025. For example, the rebar summary price in China increased from 3275 to 3284 yuan/ton [7] - The 01 - 05 and 05 - 10 month - spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil remained unchanged from September 12 to September 15, 2025 [4] - **Ratios** - The ratios of 01, 05, and 10 rebar to 01, 05, and 09 iron ore and 01, 05, and 09 coke remained at 4 and 2 respectively on September 15, 2025, unchanged from September 12 [16] Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 15, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 iron ore contracts were 796, 774.5, and 757 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of - 3.5, - 3, and - 59 yuan/ton respectively [20] - The 01, 05, and 09 basis values of iron ore on September 15, 2025, were - 5.5, 16.5, and - 22 yuan/ton respectively, with some changes compared to September 12 and September 8 [20] - **Fundamentals** - As of September 12, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 240.55 tons, with a weekly increase of 11.71 tons and a monthly decrease of 0.11 tons [26] - The 45 - port iron ore inventory on September 12, 2025, was 13849.47 tons, with a weekly increase of 24.15 tons and a monthly increase of 30.2 tons [26] Coal and Coke - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 15, 2025, the coking coal 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 month - spreads were 143.5, - 46.5, and - 97 respectively, with significant changes compared to September 12 [36] - The coke 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 month - spreads also showed large fluctuations from September 12 to September 15, 2025 [36] - **Spot Prices and Profits** - The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions had various changes from September 12 to September 15, 2025. For example, the coking coal price of Australian Peak Downs increased by 3 yuan/ton [36] - The import profits of coking coal from different countries also changed, with the Russian K10 import profit increasing by 67 yuan/ton from September 12 to September 15, 2025 [38] Ferroalloy - **Silicon Iron** - On September 15, 2025, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was - 8 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 18 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 40 yuan/ton [50] - The silicon - iron 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 spreads were - 108, 280, and - 172 respectively, with some weekly changes [50] - **Silicon Manganese** - The silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia on September 15, 2025, was 124 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 44 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 66 yuan/ton [53] - The silicon - manganese 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 spreads also had significant changes from September 12 to September 15, 2025 [53] Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 15, 2025, the soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contract prices were 1383, 1412, and 1308 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 15, 249, and 18 yuan/ton respectively [65] - The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month - spreads changed significantly, with the 5 - 9 month - spread dropping by 234 yuan/ton [65] - **Spot Prices** - The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions remained mostly stable on September 15, 2025, compared to September 12, with only a few regions having small changes [68] Glass - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 15, 2025, the glass 05, 09, and 01 contract prices were 1308, 1354, and 1207 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 24, 386, and 27 yuan/ton respectively [90] - The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month - spreads changed significantly, with the 5 - 9 month - spread dropping by 362 yuan/ton [90] - **Sales and Production** - The daily sales - to - production ratios in different regions of glass showed fluctuations from September 6 to September 12, 2025. For example, the sales - to - production ratio in the Shahe region was 73 on September 12 [91]

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: Black Metal R & D Report, Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon Daily Report for September 15, 2025 [1][2] - Researcher: Zhou Tao [3] Group 2: Market Information Futures - SF Main Contract: Closed at 5700, up 92 (1.64%) daily, up 76 weekly, with a trading volume of 200,143 (up 33,027 daily) and an open interest of 217,964 (down 4,705 daily) [4] - SM Main Contract: Closed at 5906, up 74 (1.27%) daily, up 66 weekly, with a trading volume of 184,056 (up 39,263 daily) and an open interest of 327,726 (up 2,156 daily) [4] Spot - Ferrosilicon: Spot prices were stable with a slight increase, with prices in some regions rising by 20 - 30 yuan/ton [4][5] - Manganese Silicon: Spot prices were stable with a slight increase, with prices in some regions rising by 20 - 30 yuan/ton [4][5] Basis/Spread - Ferrosilicon: The basis between Inner Mongolia and the main contract was -300, down 72 daily and 56 weekly [4] - Manganese Silicon: The basis between Inner Mongolia and the main contract was -226, down 44 daily and 66 weekly [4] Raw Materials - Manganese Ore (Tianjin): The price of Australian lump ore was 39.8 yuan/ton degree, unchanged daily and up 0.3 weekly; South African semi - carbonate ore was 34.2 yuan/ton degree, up 0.2 daily and weekly; Gabon lump ore was 39.8 yuan/ton degree, down 0.2 daily and up 0.3 weekly [4] - Lanthanum Coke Small Pieces: The price in Shaanxi was 660 yuan/ton, up 10 daily and weekly; in Ningxia it was 685 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Inner Mongolia it was 630 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] Group 3: Market Judgment Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Anti - involution trading has heated up again. In the short term, it will follow the upward trend, but the pressure of high supply in reality still exists, and the target should not be set too high [5][6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell a straddle option combination [6] Key Information - In August 2025, China's crude steel output was 77.37 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%; pig iron output was 69.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.0%; steel output was 122.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.7% [7] - On September 16, the 18th issue of Qiushi Journal will publish an important article by Xi Jinping, aiming to rectify the chaotic situation of low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises [7] Group 4: Cost and Profit Ferrosilicon - Inner Mongolia: Production cost was 5,538 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 228 yuan/ton [18] - Ningxia: Production cost was 5,591 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 341 yuan/ton [18] - Shaanxi: Production cost was 5,603 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 353 yuan/ton [18] - Qinghai: Production cost was 5,562 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 312 yuan/ton [18] - Gansu: Production cost was 5,612 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 312 yuan/ton [18] Manganese Silicon - Inner Mongolia: Production cost was 5,802 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 122 yuan/ton [21] - Ningxia: Production cost was 5,913 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 363 yuan/ton [21] - Guangxi: Production cost was 6,371 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 691 yuan/ton [21] - Guizhou: Production cost was 6,111 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 461 yuan/ton [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - For silicon manganese, the supply - demand contradiction is yet to accumulate, the cost side strongly supports the price, but new warehouse receipts in the short term will suppress the upward price limit. It is recommended to participate mainly through short - term long positions, with the main contract reference range being [5750, 6000] [4][5] - For silicon iron, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, the warehouse receipts are on a high - level downward trend but still high in absolute value, suppressing the upward price limit. It is expected to move within a range following coal prices in the short term, and it is recommended to participate mainly through short - term long positions, with the main contract reference range being [5550, 5700] [49] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Silicon Manganese Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The weekly output has returned to the pre - parade level, and the operating rate has increased by 0.93%. Northern production areas are relatively stable, while some factories in southern Guangxi and Guizhou have resumed production. Yunnan's operating rate has remained at around 95% for three consecutive weeks, and the daily output is at the highest level in the same period of the past five years. As of September 12, the national silicon manganese output was 214,130 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,295 tons; the operating rate was 47.38%, a week - on - week increase of 0.93% [4][8] - Demand: The molten iron output has returned to the pre - parade level, but the rebar output has decreased week - on - week, dragging down the demand for silicon manganese. As of September 12, the weekly demand for silicon manganese was 122,314 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,354 tons. The new round of steel procurement has started, and the first - round inquiry price of a landmark steel mill is 5,800 yuan/ton [4][13] Inventory Situation - The total enterprise inventory is 166,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6,300 tons; the number of warehouse receipts is 61,400, a decrease of 1,400 from last Friday. As of September 12, the total valid forecasts are 2,994, an increase of 1,995 from the previous day. The total delivery inventory (including forecasts) is 322,200 tons, and the inventory has stopped decreasing and started to increase [4] Cost and Profit - Manganese ore prices at ports have rebounded slightly this week. The total shipment volume of the three major countries is 949,300 tons, basically the same as the previous period. The arrival volume is 359,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 231,900 tons, with the reduction mainly from South Africa. The electricity price in Ningxia has increased by 0.02 yuan/kWh, and the current comprehensive electricity price of manufacturers is 0.4 yuan/kWh, while the electricity prices in other production areas remain stable [4] Market Price - As of September 12, the market price of 6517 in Inner Mongolia is 5,650 (- 30) yuan/ton; in Ningxia, it is 5,600 (+ 50) yuan/ton; in Guangxi, it is 5,650 (- 30) yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it is 5,850 (+ 100) yuan/ton [7] River Steel Silicon Manganese Tendering - The inquiry price for September silicon manganese tendering by River Steel is 5,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton compared to August. The procurement quantity is 17,000 tons, an increase of 900 tons compared to August and 6,500 tons compared to the same period last year [16] Silicon Iron Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: This week, the national output and operating rate of silicon iron have decreased week - on - week. Inner Mongolia and Ningxia have stable operations, while Shaanxi has slightly reduced production. As of September 12, the weekly output of silicon iron is 113,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20,000 tons; the operating rate is 34.84%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5% [49][54] - Demand: This week, the demand for silicon iron converted from the five major steel products is 19,737 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 339 tons. The new round of steel procurement has started, and the inquiry price for September silicon iron tendering by a landmark steel mill is 5,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 330 yuan/ton compared to August. The procurement quantity has increased by 317 tons compared to August. In terms of non - steel demand, the magnesium ingot output in August is basically the same as that in July, with a year - on - year decrease of 3.9% [49] Inventory Situation - The total enterprise inventory is 69,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,400 tons; the number of warehouse receipts is 16,500, a decrease of 1,800 from last Friday. The total delivery inventory (including forecasts) is 85,300 tons, a decrease of 12,200 tons from last Friday [49] Cost and Profit - Recently, the semi - coke market has been stable. The current small - material quotation in Fugu area is 640 - 690 yuan/ton. The electricity prices in Ningxia and Qinghai have both increased. In the short term, the cost side of silicon iron has strong support [49] Market Price - The spot prices in the main production areas have increased by 30 - 50 yuan/ton compared to last week [52] River Steel Silicon Iron Tendering - The inquiry price for September silicon iron tendering by River Steel is 5,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 330 yuan/ton compared to August. The procurement quantity is 3,151 tons, an increase of 317 tons compared to August and 650 tons compared to the same period last year [60]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon iron, on September 15, 2025, the latest prices of Ningxia 72 and Inner Mongolia 72 were 5250 and 5280 respectively, with daily changes of 0 and -30, and weekly changes of 50 and 30. The latest prices of the main contract and 01 contract were 5608 and 5574, with daily changes of -18 and -14, and weekly changes of 10 and 20 [1]. - For silicon manganese, on September 15, 2025, the latest prices of Inner Mongolia 6517, Ningxia 6517, and Guangxi 6517 were 5650, 5600, and 5650 respectively. The latest price of the main contract was 5832 [1]. Supply - The production data of 136 silicon iron enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including monthly and weekly production, and capacity utilization in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi [4]. - The production data of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including weekly production and enterprise - level production data [6]. Demand - The demand data of silicon iron and silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including estimated and actual consumption in related industries such as steel and magnesium production [4][7]. Inventory - The inventory data of 60 sample silicon iron enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including total inventory and inventory in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi. Also, data on warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and inventory available days are provided [5]. - The inventory data of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and inventory of 63 sample enterprises [7]. Cost and Profit - The cost - related data of silicon iron and silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including electricity prices, raw material prices, and production costs. Profit - related data such as production profit, export profit, and profit after discounting to the main contract are also provided [5][7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has warmed up, but the prices of finished steel products are showing a weak trend. Although it's the traditional peak season, the demand for rebar remains weak, while the demand for hot-rolled coils still has some resilience. If the demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may continue to decline. The raw material end is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the possible disturbances caused by safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions [4]. - The price of iron ore is expected to continue its oscillatory trend. The short - term demand for iron ore is still supported, but the profit rate of steel mills is declining. It is necessary to observe the recovery of downstream demand and the speed of inventory reduction [7]. - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the trend of the black - sector market, with relatively low operational cost - effectiveness [12]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to oscillate in the short term. If the market continues to discuss furnace - type elimination and other related topics, the price may rise further; otherwise, the weak fundamentals will limit the price increase. The price of polysilicon is more influenced by policy narratives, and attention should be paid to capacity integration policies and downstream price - passing progress [16][17]. - The price of glass has limited room for adjustment, and the market still has expectations for policy support. The price of soda ash is expected to oscillate in the short term and may gradually increase in the medium - to - long term, but the improvement of downstream demand is slow, which will limit its upward space [19][20]. - Although the black - sector prices may experience short - term corrective risks due to the current real - demand situation, in the face of the subsequent certainty of overseas fiscal and monetary easing and the opening of China's policy space, the black - sector may gradually become more cost - effective for long - positions, and the key node may be around the "Fourth Plenary Session" in mid - October [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Prices**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3127 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton (1.131%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3364 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton (0.899%) from the previous trading day [3]. - **Market Conditions**: The export volume of steel has slightly rebounded but remains in a weak and oscillatory pattern. The apparent demand for rebar continues to be sluggish, with increasing inventory pressure. The output of hot - rolled coils has rebounded, with relatively good apparent demand and a slight reduction in inventory. The trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils are diverging [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Prices**: The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 799.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.50% (+4.00). The weighted holding volume was 85.84 million hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 794 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.95 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.32% [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Overseas iron ore shipments have significantly declined, and the near - end arrival volume has slightly decreased. The daily average pig - iron output has increased, and the short - term demand for iron ore is still supported. The profit rate of steel mills continues to decline, and both port and steel - mill imported ore inventories have slightly increased [7]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Prices**: On September 12, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 0.10% at 5832 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) closed down 0.32% at 5608 yuan/ton [9][10]. - **Market Conditions**: The fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal due to high supply and weak demand in the building materials sector. The supply - and - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions or drivers. Both are likely to follow the black - sector market [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Prices**: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) was 8745 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.06% (+5). The weighted contract holding volume decreased by 11051 hands to 487604 hands [14]. - **Market Conditions**: The production capacity of industrial silicon is in surplus, with high inventory and insufficient effective demand. Although the production of downstream polysilicon and silicone DMC has increased, the overall inventory is still at a high level [15][16]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Prices**: The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) was 53610 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.19% (-100). The weighted contract holding volume decreased by 2557 hands to 301669 hands [16]. - **Market Conditions**: The price of polysilicon is more influenced by policy narratives. The overall inventory reduction space in the industry is limited, and the price is prone to fluctuations with changes in market sentiment [17]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Prices**: The spot price in Shahe was 1150 yuan, up 3 yuan from the previous day, and the spot price in Central China was 1110 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The total inventory of national float - glass sample enterprises decreased by 146.7 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 2.33% month - on - month and 14.94% year - on - year [19]. - **Market Conditions**: The glass production has increased, but the inventory pressure has decreased. The downstream real - estate demand data has not improved significantly, but the market still has expectations for policy support [19]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Prices**: The spot price was 1197 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The total inventory of domestic soda - ash manufacturers decreased by 2.56 million tons, a decrease of 1.40% [20]. - **Market Conditions**: The downstream float - glass operating rate has increased, and the photovoltaic - glass operating rate has changed little. The soda - ash production is stable, and the inventory pressure has weakened. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term and may gradually increase in the medium - to - long term [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The manganese - silicon alloy market is currently in a wait - and - see state, awaiting the final tender price of Hegang Group to guide the market. It is expected that the price of manganese - silicon will fluctuate this week, with SM2601 fluctuating between 5750 - 5900 yuan/ton [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Manganese - silicon Supply Capacity - There are data on the monthly capacity of Chinese manganese - silicon enterprises and the annual production of manganese - silicon in different regions of China, including Guangxi, Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Yunnan, and other areas [7][8]. Production - Annual production: There are annual production data of manganese - silicon in different regions such as Guangxi, Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Yunnan, and other areas in China [8]. - Weekly, monthly production and operating rate: There are data on the weekly and monthly production of Chinese manganese - silicon and the weekly operating rate of Chinese manganese - silicon enterprises [11]. - Regional production: There are monthly production data of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guizhou, and daily average production data of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guizhou, and Guangxi [12][13]. 2. Manganese - silicon Demand Steel Tender Purchase Price - There are monthly purchase price data of manganese - silicon 6517 by multiple steel companies, including Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., Baowu E'gang, Chengde Jianlong, Heilongjiang Jianlong, Yangchun Iron & Steel, Jilin Jianlong, and Nanjing Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. [16]. Daily Average Hot Metal and Profit - There are weekly data on the daily average hot metal production and profitability of 247 Chinese steel enterprises [18]. 3. Manganese - silicon Import and Export - There are monthly data on the total export and import quantities of Chinese ferromanganese - silicon [20]. 4. Manganese - silicon Inventory - There are weekly data on the inventory of 63 sample Chinese manganese - silicon enterprises, and monthly data on the average available days of manganese - silicon inventory in China, the northern region, and the eastern region [22]. 5. Manganese - silicon Cost Manganese Ore - Import Volume - There are monthly data on the total import volume of manganese ore by trade method, the import volume of manganese ore from Gabon to China, the total import volume of manganese ore from southern Africa to China, and the import volume of manganese ore from Australia to China [24]. Manganese Ore - Port Inventory and Available Days - There are weekly data on the port inventory of Chinese manganese ore, the port inventory of Qinzhou Port and Tianjin Port, and the average available days of Chinese manganese ore inventory [26]. Manganese Ore - High - grade Ore Port Inventory - There are weekly data on the port inventory of Australian - produced, Gabon - produced, and Brazilian - produced high - grade manganese ore in Qinzhou Port and Tianjin Port [28]. Manganese Ore - Tianjin Port Manganese Ore Price - There are daily data on the aggregated prices of South African semi - carbonate manganese lumps (Mn36.5%), Australian - produced manganese ore (Mn45%), and Gabon - produced manganese lumps (Mn44.5%) in Tianjin Port [29]. Regional Cost - There are daily data on the cost of manganese - silicon in Inner Mongolia, the northern region, Ningxia, the southern region, and Guangxi [30]. 6. Manganese - silicon Profit - There are daily data on the profit of manganese - silicon in the northern region, the southern region, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi [32].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand side shows marginal improvement, but the pressure of high supply and low downstream profits restricts the upside space. The market is expected to fluctuate at the bottom this week [5] - The strategy suggests a bottom - oscillating trend for single - side trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and selling straddle combinations on rallies for options [6] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Fundamentals**: Supply shows differentiation, with silicon - iron production slightly decreasing and silicon - manganese production slightly increasing this week. The previous continuous resumption trend has shifted to high - level stable operation. Demand for raw materials remains high as the pig - iron output of 247 steel mills rebounds significantly after the parade. However, the recovery of steel demand in the second week of September is not obvious, and the risk of production cuts affecting raw - material demand still exists due to low steel profits. The cost side supports silicon - manganese, with a slight increase in electricity prices in major production areas and stable manganese - ore port inventories, which are significantly lower than the same period in previous years [5] - **Market sentiment**: Rumors of energy - consumption control in some industrial - silicon production areas have disturbed the ferro - alloy supply side, but the high - supply problem still exists, so one should not be overly optimistic about the rebound height [5] - **Strategy**: Single - side trading is expected to oscillate at the bottom; arbitrage requires waiting and seeing; options suggest selling straddle combinations on rallies [6] 2. Core Logic Analysis - **Demand**: The daily average pig - iron output of 247 sample steel mills is 2.4055 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1171 million tons. The weekly demand for silicon - iron in five major steel types (about 70% of the total demand) is 19,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 300 tons; the weekly demand for silicon - manganese in five major steel types (70%) is 122,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,400 tons [11] - **Supply**: The sample opening rate of 136 independent silicon - iron enterprises is 36.84%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5%; the national silicon - iron output (weekly supply) is 113,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,000 tons. The sample opening rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises is 47.38%, a week - on - week increase of 0.93%; the national silicon - manganese output (99% of weekly supply) is 214,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,300 tons [12] - **Inventory**: As of the week of September 12, the national inventory of 60 independent silicon - iron enterprises is 69,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,400 tons; the national inventory of 63 independent silicon - manganese enterprises (accounting for 79.77% of national production capacity) is 167,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6,000 tons [13] 3. Weekly Data Tracking - **Spot price - basis**: There are price and basis trend charts for Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese FeMn65Si17 and Inner Mongolia silicon - iron 72%FeSi from 2021 - 2025 [18] - **Production situation of dual - silicon enterprises**: There are charts showing the weekly output and opening rate of domestic silicon - manganese and silicon - iron enterprises from 2021 - 2025 [24] - **Steel - mill production situation**: There are charts showing the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate, weekly steel output, profitability rate, social steel inventory, and daily pig - iron output of 247 steel mills from 2021 - 2025 [29] - **Silicon - manganese cost - profit**: On September 11, 2025, the production costs and profits of silicon - manganese in different regions are presented, with all regions showing losses [31] - **Silicon - iron cost - profit**: On September 11, 2025, the production costs and profits of silicon - iron in different regions are presented, with all regions showing losses [41] - **Cost of carbon elements and electricity price**: There are price trend charts for Fugu semi - coke small materials, Yulin steam - coal lump coal, Ningxia chemical coke, and regional electricity prices from 2021 - 2025 [48][51] - **Bidding prices of double - silicon steel by Hebei representative steel mills**: There are price trend charts for silicon - iron and silicon - manganese procurement prices of Hebei Iron and Steel Group from 2020 - 2025 [53] - **Monthly output of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron supply**: There are charts showing the monthly output and cumulative output of domestic silicon - manganese and silicon - iron from 2021 - 2025 [60][63] - **Import and export of manganese ore and silicon - iron**: There are charts showing the monthly net import volume of manganese ore and the monthly net export volume of silicon - iron, including the cumulative and year - on - year data [67] - **Demand for magnesium metal**: There are charts showing the price of Fugu magnesium metal Mg99.9% and the cumulative output of magnesium metal in Yulin, Shaanxi from 2020 - 2025 [69] - **Silicon - iron inventory of alloy plants vs. steel mills**: There are charts showing the silicon - iron inventory of alloy plants, the regional distribution of alloy - plant silicon - iron inventory, the available days of steel - mill silicon - iron inventory, and its regional distribution from 2021 - 2025 [73] - **Manganese - ore inventory of alloy plants, steel mills, and ports**: There are charts showing the available days of steel - mill silicon - manganese inventory, its regional distribution, the total manganese - ore inventory at Tianjin Port, and the silicon - manganese inventory of alloy plants from 2021 - 2025 [76]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the alloy prices fluctuated. The increase in the cost side pushed the price center slightly higher, but Hegang's entry for inquiries may set the tone for the latest steel mill tenders, causing a slight market slowdown. Attention should be paid to Hegang's final quoted price [5]. - The resumption of production in steel mills after the military parade led to a recovery in hot metal production, supporting the demand for raw materials. The upward shift in the cost center provided short - term support for alloy prices [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Overall Market Situation - This week, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese fluctuated. The ferrosilicon 2511 contract closed at 5608 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week, with 724,757 contracts traded and 217,964 contracts held (a decrease of 22,817 contracts week - on - week). The silicomanganese 2601 contract closed at 5832 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton week - on - week, with 729,357 contracts traded and 325,570 contracts held (an increase of 701 contracts week - on - week) [8]. - The spot prices of ferrosilicon in major regions across the country stopped falling. The aggregated quotation for 75B ferrosilicon in the main production areas was 5200 - 5330 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of 30 - 50 yuan/ton. The aggregated quotation range for silicomanganese in major regions was 5550 - 5800 yuan/ton, with price fluctuations of - 30 - 100 yuan/ton [9]. 2. Silicomanganese Fundamental Data - **Supply**: This week's silicomanganese production was 21.41 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.06 tons (- 0.3%). The weekly operating rate was 46.45%, a decrease of 0.55 percentage points from last week. Inner Mongolia had some factory furnace shutdowns for maintenance, while supply in Ningxia, Guangxi, and Guizhou continued to expand [16][20]. - **Demand**: From the performance of downstream steel mills, production gradually recovered after the military parade restrictions, and the actual output of downstream hot metal increased week - on - week. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, the blast furnace operating rate this week was 90.18%, an increase of 4.39 percentage points from last week; the average daily hot metal output was 240.55 tons, an increase of 11.71 tons week - on - week. However, the overall demand for silicomanganese weakened as the production of rebar decreased by 6.75 tons this week [22]. - **Inventory**: As of September 12, the number of silicomanganese warehouse receipts was 61,440, a decrease of 1,420 week - on - week, equivalent to a stock of 307,200 tons, with a warehouse receipt destocking of 7,100 tons. The average available days of silicomanganese inventory in steel mills in August was 14.98 days (+ 0.74 days). The inventory of 63 silicomanganese sample enterprises across the country was 166,800 tons, an increase of 6,300 tons week - on - week [29][30][33]. - **Cost and Price**: Overseas manganese ore enterprises' quotations were stable, and the port inquiry atmosphere was active. Affected by the firm port quotations of manganese ore and the increase in settlement electricity fees, the cost center shifted upward [36][51]. 3. Ferrosilicon Fundamental Data - **Supply**: This week's ferrosilicon production was 11.31 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 tons (- 1.8%). The weekly operating rate was 34.84%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from last week. Production in Qinghai and Shaanxi decreased [55][60]. - **Demand**: From the performance of downstream steel mills, production gradually recovered after the military parade restrictions, and the actual output of downstream hot metal increased week - on - week. Non - steel demand also showed an upward trend. Ferrosilicon exports in July were 3.59 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52% [71]. - **Inventory**: As of September 12, the number of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts was 16,465, a decrease of 1,844 week - on - week, equivalent to a stock of 82,325 tons, with a warehouse receipt destocking of 9,220 tons. The average available days of ferrosilicon inventory in steel mills in August was 14.67 days (+ 0.42 days). The inventory of 60 ferrosilicon sample enterprises across the country was 69,940 tons, an increase of 3,380 tons week - on - week [73][74][78]. - **Cost and Price**: The increase in the settlement electricity price led to an increase in ferrosilicon production costs [82].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, indicating challenges in its operational performance compared to the previous year [3]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 11.825 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.83%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 989 million yuan, down 1.82% year-on-year [3]. - For Q2 2025, the company recorded revenue of 6.222 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 7.27%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.05% [3]. Segment Performance - The apparel segment saw production increase by 2.82% year-on-year, with a unit selling price of 851 yuan, up 7.19%, and a unit gross profit of 462 yuan, up 2.79% [4]. - In H1 2025, the silicon manganese and silicon iron segments reported significant increases in gross profit per ton, with silicon iron gross profit up 51.93% and silicon manganese up 37.18% [5]. - The caustic soda segment experienced a gross profit increase of 47.11% per ton, while the PVC segment saw a decrease of 4.02% [6]. - The coal segment's gross profit per ton fell significantly, with a 40.68% year-on-year decline, and the investment income from Yongmei Mining decreased by 23.28% [7]. Dividend Policy - The company maintained a high dividend payout ratio, reaching 90.92% in 2024, resulting in a current dividend yield of 6.06% [8].