光期研究 见微知著 铁合金策略月报 2025 年 0 6 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 锰 硅 供应：5月锰硅产量环比下降，但近两周产量止跌回升，宁夏地区产量仍维持低位。据铁合金在线，5月锰硅总产量约为77.89万吨，较 4月减少6.33万吨。其中硅锰6517产量约为69万吨，较4月减少4万吨左右。据钢联数据，截止5月30日当周，锰硅周产量为16.99万吨，周环比 增加2.86%，连续两周环比增加。内蒙古、广西、云南地区锰硅企业开工率环比增加，宁夏地区开工率仍环比下降。 需求：钢招持续进行，价格继续走弱，样本钢厂锰硅需求量当周值与钢厂锰硅库存均处历史同期偏低水平。近期钢招价格已经跌破 5700元/吨，6月主流钢招尚未启动，持续关注。终端需求表现相对偏弱，预计钢厂锰硅需求量当周值及钢厂锰硅库存偏低现状将维持较长 时间。 库存：样本企业库存环比下降，但绝对值依旧偏高。截止5月23日当周，63家样本企业库存20.11万吨，环比下降6000吨，但仍处于近 年来同期偏高水平，同比增加4.16万吨。 成本：港口锰矿库存逐 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content Summary by Related Catalogs Price - The report provides price data for various silicon and manganese alloys, including different grades and regions. For example, the latest price of Ningxia 72 silicon iron is 5200, with a daily change of -50 and a weekly change of -150 [1]. - It also shows price differences between different contracts (e.g., 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1) and basis differences for silicon iron and silicon manganese [1][3]. Supply - Data on the production of silicon iron and silicon manganese is presented, such as the monthly and weekly production of 136 silicon iron enterprises in China and the production of silicon manganese in China [4][6]. - The capacity utilization rates of silicon iron production enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi are also included [4]. Demand - Information about the demand for silicon iron and silicon manganese is provided, including the estimated demand for silicon manganese in China and the procurement volume and price of silicon iron and silicon manganese by Hebei Iron and Steel Group [4][6][7]. - The production of related downstream products like crude steel, stainless - steel crude steel, and metal magnesium is also shown, which can reflect the demand for these alloys [4]. Inventory - Inventory data for silicon iron and silicon manganese are given, including the inventory of 60 sample enterprises of silicon iron in different regions and the inventory - related data of silicon manganese (e.g., warehouse receipts, effective forecasts) [5][7]. Cost and Profit - The report includes cost - related data such as electricity prices for iron alloys in different regions and the market price of raw materials like blue charcoal and manganese ore [5][6]. - Profit data for silicon iron and silicon manganese are also presented, such as the production profit of blue charcoal, the profit of silicon iron in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, and the profit of silicon manganese in different regions [5][7].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-06-03锰硅早报 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 锰硅2509： 1.基本面：原料端，锰矿供应过剩局面维持，市场成交冷清。期货端，节前硅锰盘面持续偏弱震荡，带动现货价格同样偏 弱运行。现货端，硅锰厂报价坚挺，但下游钢厂对硅锰采购谨慎。仍需关注节后硅锰市场实际成交情况；中性。 2.基差：现货价5400元/吨，09合约基差-78元/吨，现货贴水期货。偏空。 3.库存：全国63家独立硅锰企业样本库存186100吨；全国50家钢厂库存平均可用天数15.15天。偏多。 4.盘面：MA20向下，09合约期价收于MA20下方。偏空。 5.主力持仓：主力持仓净多，空翻多。偏多。 2 0元/吨 2000元/吨 4000元/吨 6000元/吨 8000元/吨 10000元/吨 ...

2025 年 6 月 3 日 硅铁：需求预期不佳，弱势震荡 锰硅：港口矿成交承压，弱势震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 2、铁合金在线：截止本周五锰矿库存更新：天津港库存 311.16 吨，环比减少 13.2 万吨；钦州港库存 94.57 万吨，环比下降 1.63 万吨；曹妃甸港口库存 0 万吨，本周未有新船入库；防城港库存 9 万吨， 环比增加 1 万吨；截止 5 月 30 日锰矿库存总量 414.73 万吨，环比下降 13.83 万吨。 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅铁2507 | 5298 | -24 | 250,921 | 148,979 | | 期货 | 硅铁2509 | 5172 | -54 | 135,817 | 198,768 | | | 锰硅2506 | 5436 | -56 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The current price for 72 silicon iron is reported at 5200-5300 CNY/ton, down 50-100 CNY from last week, with a year-on-year decrease of 2250 CNY[15] - The total production of silicon iron in May is estimated at 405,200 tons, a decrease of 41,700 tons from April, indicating a supply reduction[24] - The average operating rate for silicon iron producers is 46.39%, down 4.28% month-on-month, reflecting a decline in production capacity utilization[27] Group 2: Cost and Pricing Dynamics - The cost of silicon iron in Qinghai is reported at 5624 CNY/ton, with a loss of 324 CNY, while costs in Ningxia and Gansu are 5830.51 CNY/ton and 5733 CNY/ton, respectively, both showing significant losses[24] - The price of manganese silicon is reported at 5500-5550 CNY/ton, with a decrease of 200 CNY from the previous week, and a year-on-year drop of 3150 CNY[8] - Manganese ore prices are under pressure, with half-carbonate reported at 33-33.5 CNY/ton, reflecting a weak market[8] Group 3: Supply and Demand Trends - The inventory of silicon iron at steel mills has decreased to 15.3 days, down 1.55% from the previous month, indicating a tightening supply situation[38] - Manganese silicon inventory has decreased significantly, with a total of 536,865 tons, down 20,905 tons from the previous week, suggesting a reduction in available supply[10] - The overall market sentiment remains pessimistic, with trade transactions being limited and a lack of willingness to stockpile materials[5] Group 4: Future Outlook - The market is expected to see a weak support level around 5200 CNY for the July contract, with ongoing concerns about production recovery in Ningxia[4] - The anticipated recovery in production may not meet expectations, as the industry continues to face significant losses and a prolonged downtrend[54] - The overall industry is experiencing a prolonged period of losses, with over 90% of production currently operating at a loss, indicating a challenging environment ahead[54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For silicon manganese, the cost support is expected to weaken, and the industrial fundamentals have improved, but due to the overall decline in the prices of the black series, the market bearish sentiment remains. The medium - and short - term market may still be in the process of finding or establishing a bottom, with prices remaining weak. The main contract reference range is [5250, 5800] [3]. - For silicon iron, under the background of industrial production cuts, the supply - demand contradiction has eased. The current supply has dropped to the lowest level in the same period, while the demand faces the risk of seasonal decline, and the cost support is still insufficient. The market may continue to find a bottom, and prices are expected to remain weak. The main contract reference range is [5150, 5500] [45]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Silicon Manganese Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: In May, production and operating rates declined significantly, with factories in both northern and southern regions undergoing maintenance. Some factories have resumed production slightly after maintenance. The daily output in Inner Mongolia is 13,400 tons, still at a relatively high level in the same period. Yunnan factories also have plans to resume production in June. The estimated total national silicon manganese production in May is about 740,000 tons [3]. - Demand: In May, hot metal production declined month - on - month and may have peaked, but it is still at a relatively high level in the same period, providing short - term rigid support for silicon manganese demand. In terms of steel procurement, the mainstream steel mills' procurement price of silicon manganese alloy in May was 5,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to April, and the procurement quantity was 11,600 tons, an increase of 200 tons compared to April. Most steel mills' tender prices decreased, with strong price - pressing sentiment. Recent news of crude steel production restrictions has disturbed the market [3]. Manganese Ore Overview - The news of South Africa's export restrictions briefly disturbed the market, but its impact has gradually dissipated. The manganese ore market remains weak, with low trading volume, and factories mainly replenish stocks on demand. In May, shipping and arrival volumes increased significantly, while the port clearance volume declined from a high level. South32 has resumed shipping, but the overall shipping volume is low. It is expected that port inventories will slowly recover at a low level [3]. Cost and Profit - The entire industry's loss has intensified, and the expectation of production cuts remains. However, the room for further production cuts in the southern region is limited, and attention should be paid to the operating conditions in low - cost regions. The second - round price cut of coke has been implemented, and there is still an expectation of further price cuts. Electricity prices in both northern and southern regions have decreased to varying degrees, and there is still an expectation of an electricity price cut in Ningxia in June [3]. Market Outlook - Overall, the cost support for silicon manganese is expected to weaken. Although the industrial fundamentals have improved, the market bearish sentiment remains due to the overall decline in the prices of the black series. The medium - and short - term market may still be in the process of finding or establishing a bottom, with prices remaining weak. The upward drive depends on "deep production cuts" in the industry or external environmental disturbances [3]. Silicon Iron Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: In May, production and operating rates declined significantly. Since mid - April, more factories in production areas have undergone maintenance, and the operating rates in multiple production areas have dropped to the lowest level in the same period. The estimated total national production in May is 410,000 - 420,000 tons [44]. - Demand: In the short term, steel mills' profits still support the high - level hot metal production, and the demand for silicon iron remains resilient. The progress of steel procurement in May was slow, with most steel mills' tender prices decreasing to varying degrees, and strong price - pressing sentiment. A leading steel mill's procurement price of silicon iron alloy in May was 5,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton compared to April, and the procurement quantity was 2,130 tons, an increase of 430 tons compared to April. Non - steel demand: The downstream magnesium metal market remains weak, with low trading volume, and cannot strongly support silicon iron. In terms of exports, the export volume of silicon iron increased month - on - month in April, but the cumulative export volume from January to April decreased significantly compared to the same period last year. Affected by the increase in Southeast Asian orders, the export volume in May is expected to increase slightly month - on - month but still be lower than the level of the same period last year [44]. Cost and Profit - The semi - coke market remains weakly stable. The price of lump coal at the raw material end continues to be weak, and cannot strongly support the semi - coke price. The maintenance season in May is coming to an end, and factories may gradually resume production. The price of small materials in Shaanxi decreased by 40 yuan/ton this month. There is still an expectation of an electricity price cut in Ningxia, and attention should be paid to the electricity price changes in each production area [44]. Market Outlook - Under the background of industrial production cuts, the supply - demand contradiction has eased. The current supply has dropped to the lowest level in the same period, while the demand faces the risk of seasonal decline, and the cost support is still insufficient. The market may continue to find a bottom, and prices are expected to remain weak [45].

铁合金早报 供应 需求 800 1300 1800 2300 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁：72%FeSi：出口价格：天津港 （美元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 800 1300 1800 2300 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁：75%FeSi：出口价格：天津港 （美元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -2500 -1500 -500 500 1500 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁-硅锰主力合约价差（元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/0 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,530.00 | -76.00↓ | SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,322.00 | -130.00↓ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 626,180.00 | +9238.00↑ | SF期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 445,469.00 | -10182.00↓ | | 期货市场 | 锰硅前20名净持仓（日，手） | -32,543.00 | +19917.00↑ | 硅铁前20名净持仓（日，手） | -18,441.00 | +7573.00↑ | | | SM1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 46.00 | | +4.00↑ SF1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 50.00 | 0.00 | | | SM 仓单（日，张） | 111,154.00 | | -799.00↓ SF 仓单（日，张） | 16,953.00 | -127.00↓ | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints provided in the given text 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy on May 29, 2025, the latest price of Ningxia 72 silicon ferro - natural block is 5250 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 100 yuan; the latest price of Inner Mongolia 72 is 5320 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 80 yuan; the latest price of Qinghai 72 is 5300 yuan, with a daily decrease of 50 yuan and a weekly decrease of 100 yuan; the latest price of Shaanxi 72 is 5250 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 100 yuan; the latest price of Shaanxi 75 is 5900 yuan, with no daily or weekly change [2]. - For silicon manganese on May 29, 2025, the factory - ex price of Inner Mongolia 6517 is 5550 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 30 yuan; the factory - ex price of Ningxia 6517 is 5400 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 130 yuan; the factory - ex price of Guangxi 6517 is 5550 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 50 yuan; the factory - ex price of Guizhou 6517 is 5500 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 80 yuan; the factory - ex price of Yunnan 6517 is 5500 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 70 yuan [2]. Supply - There are long - term data trends of the production of 136 silicon ferro enterprises in China (monthly and weekly, with a capacity proportion of 95%), and the capacity utilization rates of 136 silicon ferro production enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi (monthly) from 2021 - 2025 [4]. - There are long - term data trends of the production of silicon manganese in China (weekly) from 2021 - 2025 [6]. Demand - There are long - term data trends of the demand for silicon manganese in China (in ten thousand tons, according to the Steel Union's caliber) from 2021 - 2025 [4][7]. - There are long - term data trends of the procurement volume and price of FeSi75 - B by Hebei Iron and Steel Group (monthly) from 2021 - 2025 [4]. Inventory - There are long - term data trends of the inventory of 60 sample silicon ferro enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi (weekly), the total number of silicon ferro warehouse receipts on CZCE (daily), silicon ferro effective forecasts (daily), and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts (daily) from 2021 - 2025 [5]. - There are long - term data trends of the total number of silicon manganese warehouse receipts on CZCE (daily), silicon manganese effective forecasts (daily), silicon manganese warehouse receipts + effective inventory (daily), and the inventory of 63 sample silicon manganese enterprises in China (weekly, in tons) from 2021 - 2025 [7]. Cost Profit - There are long - term data trends of the electricity prices of ferroalloys in Qinghai, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia, the market mainstream price of small - sized semi - coke in Shaanxi, the semi - coke production start - up rate in China (weekly), the semi - coke production gross profit in China (daily), the market price of 98% silica in the northwest region of China (daily), and the market price of 70% Fe iron oxide scale in Shijiazhuang (daily) from 2021 - 2025 [5]. - There are long - term data trends of the production cost, the profit of converting to the main contract, and the spot profit of silicon ferro in Ningxia, the export profit of 75 silicon ferro (in RMB), the production cost and the profit of converting to the main contract of silicon ferro in Inner Mongolia from 2021 - 2025 [5]. - There are long - term data trends of the profit of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern region, and the southern region (according to the Steel Union, in yuan/ton), the profit of converting Guangxi silicon manganese to the main contract, and the profit of converting Ningxia silicon manganese to the contract from 2021 - 2025 [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Silicon Ferroalloy (SiFe)**: The supply - demand contradiction of SiFe has been significantly alleviated, and the supply - demand gap continues to widen. In the short term, the demand side lacks support, but there is a need to be vigilant against supply - demand mismatch situations. It is expected that the price will fluctuate. The 07 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5500 - 5800, and in the short term, it is expected to fluctuate between 5500 - 5900 [4][8]. - **Silicon Manganese (SiMn)**: Affected by the news, the volatility of SiMn increased significantly in the last two trading days of this week. In the short term, there is still supply pressure, but there are more news disturbances. With the expectation that future hot metal production will remain at a high level, SiMn will generally maintain a bottom - range fluctuation, lacking the logical support for a trending upward movement. It is recommended to try short - selling at high levels, with the bottom support temporarily at around 5400. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate between 5700 - 6000 [5][113]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Silicon Ferroalloy (SiFe) Valuation - The main SiFe contract decreased by 3.37% this week, closing at 5512 yuan/ton. There were price changes in the main production areas and among manufacturers and trading locations [8]. Supply - The operating rate of 136 independent SiFe enterprises was 30.42%, a decrease of 0.80% from the previous period. The daily output was 12,700 tons, a decrease of 665 tons from the previous period, and the weekly supply was 88,900 tons [8][30]. Cost and Profit - The immediate production costs in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, and Ningxia were 5518 yuan/ton, 5708 yuan/ton, and 5469 yuan/ton respectively. The immediate profits in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia were - 118 yuan/ton and - 119 yuan/ton respectively [8]. Lanthanum Coke - The lanthanum coke market remained stable overall. The operating rate of 135 lanthanum coke enterprises was 41.51%, a 1.65 - percentage - point increase from the previous period. The daily output was 155,300 tons, a 62,000 - ton increase from the previous period. The lanthanum coke inventory was 412,700 tons, a 98,000 - ton increase from the previous period, and the raw coal inventory was 1,220,500 tons, a 375,000 - ton increase from the previous period [8][51]. Demand - The weekly demand for SiFe in five major steel types was 20,700 tons, a 1.66% increase from the previous week. The non - steel demand, such as for magnesium metal, was stable, but the downstream demand was limited [8]. Inventory - As of May 22, the inventory of 60 independent SiFe enterprises was 75,100 tons, a 1.90% increase from the previous period [8]. Silicon Manganese (SiMn) Futures and Spot - The main SiMn contract decreased by 2.39% this week, closing at 5718 yuan/ton. There were price changes in the main production areas and trading locations [113]. Supply - The operating rate of 187 independent SiMn enterprises was 34.18%, a 0.58% increase from the previous week. The daily output was 23,600 tons, an increase of 350 tons, and the weekly output was 165,200 tons, a 1.51% increase from the previous week [113][225]. Cost and Profit - The production cost in Inner Mongolia was 5768 yuan/ton, and in Guangxi it was 6309 yuan/ton. The production profit in Inner Mongolia was - 188 yuan/ton [113]. Manganese Ore Supply - The global manganese ore shipments recovered this week. The future arrivals of manganese ore will remain at a high level. The supply recovery of South32's Australian mine will further increase the global manganese ore supply, and the manganese ore price will still face pressure [5][113]. Manganese Ore Inventory - As of May 16, the manganese ore inventory in major Chinese ports was 4.18 million tons, a 232,000 - ton increase from the previous period [113]. Demand - The weekly demand for SiMn in five major steel types was 126,590 tons, a 0.76% increase from the previous week. The daily hot metal output decreased by 11,700 tons, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.46%, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.44 percentage points, and the steel mill profitability rate increased by 0.43 percentage points [113][246]. Inventory - As of May 22, the national SiMn inventory was 201,100 tons, a decrease of 6000 tons from the previous period [113].