一、行情回顾 10月9日，郑商所锰硅期货仓单54335张，环比上个交易日减少1427张。 三、机构观点 中辉期货：产区供应量小幅下降但绝对值仍偏高，本期库存继续增加，新一轮钢招尚未完全展开，业内 多以观望为主。综合来看，成本端对价格有较强支撑，但上行驱动仍有限，短期下跌情绪快速释放后行 情或有反复，建议空单离场。 西南期货：近期铁合金产量维持高位，需求回暖偏弱，短期或延续供应过剩。当前成本低位下行空间受 限，低位区间支撑渐强，锰矿库存低位；短期供应缩减预期或有扰动，成本低位且刚性渐强条件下，回 落后或可考虑关注现货再度陷入亏损区间的低位多头机会。 上一交易日，锰硅主力合约收平至5768元/吨；天津锰硅现货价格5670元/吨，跌30元/吨。 二、基本面汇总 本周统计全国187家独立硅锰企业开工率为43.19%，环比上周减少0.99%；日均产量为29175吨，环比减 少315吨，为近8周来新低。 10月9日，某集团招标硅锰合金定价：湖北5790元/吨，数量400吨；江苏5760元/吨，数量500吨；广东 河源5860元/吨，数量800吨；均为现金含税到厂。 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-09-26 市场预期乐观 ，钢价震荡运行 玻璃纯碱：交投情绪高涨，玻碱震荡偏强 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货整体震荡上行，盘面成交活跃。截至收盘，主力2601合约涨幅3.08%且近月合约涨幅大于 远月。现货方面，以节前补库为主。近期伴随价格上涨，玻璃产销环比改善。据隆众数据显示，本周浮法玻璃企 业开工率76.01 %，厂家库存5935.5万重箱，环比减少2.55%。 供需与逻辑：目前玻璃供应大体持稳，消费受到投机性需求和下游补库影响，库存有所去化但整体变化有限，盘 面大幅升水刺激期现拿货。宏观政策带动下，玻璃盘面价格波动剧烈，然而基本面对于价格依旧形成压制，持续 关注宏观政策的变化及玻璃旺季需求表现。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货盘面震荡上行，成交活跃。截至收盘，主力2601合约涨幅1.15%，各个合约均有不同程度 上涨。现货方面，仍是以节前刚需补库为主。据隆众数据显示：本周国内纯碱产量77.69万吨，环比增加4.19%；库 存165.15万吨，环比减少2.61%。 供需与逻辑：纯碱供需矛盾依旧存在，同时伴随远兴二期点火，后续纯碱供给压力将进一步提升。持续关注纯碱 投机性需求有无减弱 ...

Core Insights - The China Steel Association reported a continued decline in procurement costs for coking coal and a mixed trend for iron ore in July 2025, with most categories showing significant year-on-year decreases in costs [1] Group 1: Coking Coal - The weighted average procurement cost of coking coal in July was 1100.18 CNY/ton, a decrease of 32.00 CNY/ton or 2.83% month-on-month [2] - From January to July, the cumulative average procurement cost was 1250.49 CNY/ton, down 634.14 CNY/ton or 33.65% year-on-year [2] - The lowest five companies had an average procurement cost of 1015.95 CNY/ton, which is 234.54 CNY/ton or 18.76% lower than the average [4] Group 2: Spraying Coal - The weighted average procurement cost of spraying coal in July was 841.62 CNY/ton, a decrease of 7.59 CNY/ton or 0.89% month-on-month [6] - The cumulative average procurement cost from January to July was 938.94 CNY/ton, down 198.76 CNY/ton or 17.47% year-on-year [6] - The lowest five companies had an average procurement cost of 727.16 CNY/ton, which is 211.78 CNY/ton or 22.56% lower than the average [8] Group 3: Metallurgical Coke - The weighted average procurement cost of metallurgical coke in July was 1303.66 CNY/ton, a decrease of 51.49 CNY/ton or 3.80% month-on-month [11] - The cumulative average procurement cost from January to July was 1482.27 CNY/ton, down 646.01 CNY/ton or 30.35% year-on-year [11] - The lowest five companies had an average procurement cost of 1279.56 CNY/ton, which is 202.71 CNY/ton or 13.68% lower than the average [13] Group 4: Domestic Iron Concentrate - The weighted average procurement cost of domestic iron concentrate in July was 745.01 CNY/ton, an increase of 1.73 CNY/ton or 0.23% month-on-month [14] - The cumulative average procurement cost from January to July was 769.34 CNY/ton, down 119.02 CNY/ton or 13.40% year-on-year [14] - The lowest five companies had an average procurement cost of 630.96 CNY/ton, which is 131.37 CNY/ton or 17.23% lower than the average [16] Group 5: Imported Powder Ore - The weighted average procurement cost of imported powder ore in July was 725.51 CNY/ton, an increase of 1.54 CNY/ton or 0.21% month-on-month [19] - The cumulative average procurement cost from January to July was 754.60 CNY/ton, down 124.77 CNY/ton or 14.19% year-on-year [19] - The lowest five companies had an average procurement cost of 713.04 CNY/ton, which is 59.06 CNY/ton or 7.65% lower than the average [21] Group 6: Scrap Steel - The weighted average procurement cost of scrap steel in July was 2146.37 CNY/ton, an increase of 18.20 CNY/ton or 0.86% month-on-month [25] - The cumulative average procurement cost from January to July was 2180.06 CNY/ton, down 358.06 CNY/ton or 14.11% year-on-year [25] - The lowest five companies had an average procurement cost of 1948.06 CNY/ton, which is 232.00 CNY/ton or 10.64% lower than the average [27] Group 7: Silicon Manganese Alloy - The weighted average procurement cost of silicon manganese alloy in July was 5143.37 CNY/ton, an increase of 60.61 CNY/ton or 1.19% month-on-month [30] - The cumulative average procurement cost from January to July was 5389.77 CNY/ton, down 793.53 CNY/ton or 12.83% year-on-year [30] - The lowest five companies had an average procurement cost of 5104.90 CNY/ton, which is 284.87 CNY/ton or 5.29% lower than the average [32] Group 8: Manganese Iron Alloy - The weighted average procurement cost of manganese iron alloy in July was 5973.38 CNY/ton, a decrease of 46.72 CNY/ton or 0.78% month-on-month [35] - The cumulative average procurement cost from January to July was 6274.58 CNY/ton, down 341.48 CNY/ton or 5.16% year-on-year [35] - The lowest five companies had an average procurement cost of 4848.24 CNY/ton, which is 1426.34 CNY/ton or 22.73% lower than the average [37]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Silicon Manganese**: Supply and demand are becoming more balanced, with weekly production increasing and the operating rate in Yunnan reaching a five - year high. Demand has some resilience. Manganese ore prices are weak and stable, while coal and coke are strong, providing some cost support. In the short term, it may have a weak rebound following market sentiment, and short - selling or waiting is advisable. Seasonally, there is a high probability of decline in September and October, and mid - term short - selling opportunities during the correction can be considered. The reference range for the main contract is [5500, 6150] [3][4]. - **Silicon Iron**: The current fundamentals are becoming looser, and the rising raw material prices at the cost end temporarily support the silicon iron price. The inventory pressure has been released this month, and the warehouse receipts have stopped increasing and started to decline, but the absolute level is still high, suppressing the upward space of the spot price in the short term. Seasonally, there is a high probability of decline in September and October, and mid - term short - selling opportunities during the correction can be considered. The reference range for the main contract is [5400, 6000] [46][47]. 3. Summary by Directory Silicon Manganese - **Market Review**: In August, the futures price fluctuated weakly, with the price center continuously moving down. As of August 25, 2025, the closing price of the manganese - silicon main contract was 5898 yuan/ton, a cumulative decline of 2.28% from the beginning of the month; the spot price in Jiangsu was 5800 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 98 yuan/ton [6]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 25, the market price of 6517 in Inner Mongolia was 5750 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan from the beginning of the month), 5780 yuan/ton in Guangxi (down 20 yuan from the beginning of the month), and 5800 yuan/ton in Jiangsu (down 150 yuan from the beginning of the month) [9]. - **Supply**: The silicon - manganese output in July totaled 81.96 million tons, and the total output in August is expected to be 91 - 92 million tons [10]. - **Demand**: The weekly output of molten iron in August remained above 2.4 million tons, but the output of rebar did not increase significantly and remained at a low level compared to the same period. The procurement price of silicon - manganese alloy by a landmark steel mill in August was 6200 yuan/ton, and the procurement volume was 16,100 tons, higher than the same period last year [3]. - **Inventory**: The total enterprise inventory was 156,000 tons, a decrease of 8000 tons from the beginning of the month; as of August 25, the total number of warehouse receipts was 68,900, a decrease of 8900 from the beginning of the month; the delivery inventory (including forecasts) decreased to 353,900 tons, a decrease of 38,100 tons from the beginning of the month [3]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost in the north is about 5850 yuan/ton, and 6300 yuan/ton in the south. Currently, most production areas are in a loss state. Other costs: Coke has started the eighth round of price increases, and the price will remain strong in the short term. The electricity prices in the north and south production areas have changed little [4]. - **Manganese Ore Price**: The port manganese ore price fluctuated weakly. As of August 25, the price of Gabon lumps at Tianjin Port was 39.5 yuan/ton - degree (down 1 yuan from the beginning of the month), CML Australian lumps were 41.5 yuan/ton - degree (down 0.5 yuan from the beginning of the month), and South32 South African semi - carbonate was 34.2 yuan/ton - degree (down 1.3 yuan from the beginning of the month) [23]. - **Manganese Ore Import**: In July 2025, China's total manganese ore import volume was 2.744 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.2% and a year - on - year increase of 20.0%. Among them, the import volume of South African manganese ore was 1.365 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%; the import volume of Australian ore was 407,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 81.4% and a year - on - year increase of 382.2%; the import volume of Gabonese manganese ore was 486,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 154.8% and a year - on - year increase of 44.0% [28]. Silicon Iron - **Market Review**: In August, the futures price fluctuated weakly, with the price center continuously moving down. As of August 25, 2025, the closing price of the silicon - iron main contract was 5680 yuan/ton, a cumulative decline of 2.64% from the beginning of the month; the spot price in Jiangsu was 5600 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 80 yuan/ton [50]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in the main production areas decreased by 150 - 250 yuan/ton this month [51]. - **Supply**: The silicon - iron output in July totaled 446,700 tons, and the total output in August is expected to be 490,000 - 500,000 tons [53]. - **Demand - Steelmaking**: As of August 22, the weekly demand for silicon iron was 20,313.9 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 38 tons. In July 2025, China's crude steel output was 79.66 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%; from January to July, the cumulative crude steel output was 594.47 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1% [56]. - **Demand - Non - steel**: In July, the output of magnesium ingots totaled 73,374 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1664 tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.46%; in July 2025, China's silicon - iron export volume totaled 35,946 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1224 tons; from January to July, the cumulative silicon - iron export volume was 235,994 tons, a decrease of 12,239 tons (a decline of 4.9%) compared to the same period last year [62]. - **Inventory**: The total enterprise inventory was 62,100 tons, a decrease of 3500 tons from the beginning of the month; as of August 25, the total number of warehouse receipts was 20,200, a decrease of 1800 from the beginning of the month; the delivery inventory (including forecasts) totaled 109,700 tons, a decrease of 5500 tons from the beginning of the month [46]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost in the production areas has increased slightly, and most of the industry is in a loss state. Currently, the production cost in Ningxia is 5388 yuan/ton (the lowest), and the spot profit is - 88 yuan/ton; the production cost in Gansu is 5609 yuan/ton (the highest), and the spot profit is about - 259 yuan/ton [47].

证券代码：601069 证券简称：西部黄金 公告编号： 2025-057 西部黄金股份有限公司 二、2025 年半年度（1-6 月）产销量情况分析表 2025 年半年度经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性依法承担法律责任。 根据上海证券交易所《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 3 号——行 业信息披露》要求，现将西部黄金股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）2025 年 半年度（1-6 月）主要有色金属品种产销量及盈利情况披露如下（财务数据未经 审计）： 一、2025 年半年度（1-6 月）主营业务分行业、分产品、分地区、分销售模式情况 单位：元 币种：人民币 | | | 主营业务分行业情况 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 分行业 | 营业收入 | 营业成本 | 毛利率（%） | 营业收入比上年增 | 营业成本比上 | 毛利率比上年增减 | | | | | | 减（%） | 年增减（%） | （%） | | 黄金行业 | 4,343,763 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost of ferrosilicon manganese is further supported by the high prices of manganese ore and coke, as well as the increase in freight for northern manganese ore due to transportation restrictions during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit in Tianjin in late August [2]. - The supply side shows positive production sentiment in alloy plants in both the north and south. Factories in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia have relatively low spot inventories and mainly focus on fulfilling forward orders. The start - up rates in Guangxi and Yunnan are gradually rising [2]. - The demand side is supported by the increase in both the procurement volume and price by Hegang Group in August. Hegang's August silicon - manganese procurement price is 6,200 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan from the first inquiry and 350 yuan from July, and the procurement volume is 16,100 tons, up from 14,600 tons in July [2]. - Overall, the spot price rose significantly this week driven by cost and demand, and the market sentiment is positive. It is expected that the short - term price of ferrosilicon manganese will remain firm, and the market will continue to fluctuate in the short term [2][3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Manganese Silicon Supply - **Capacity**: Data on the monthly capacity of Chinese silicon - manganese enterprises and the annual production of silicon - manganese in different regions of China are presented [7][8]. - **Production - Annual**: No specific text summary content, but annual production data are shown [9]. - **Production - Weekly, Monthly, and Start - up Rate**: Data on the weekly and monthly production of Chinese silicon - manganese and the weekly start - up rate of Chinese silicon - manganese enterprises are provided [11]. - **Production - Regional Production**: Monthly production data of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guizhou, as well as daily average production data of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guizhou, and Guangxi are presented [12][13]. Manganese Silicon Demand - **Steel Tendering and Procurement Price**: The monthly procurement prices of silicon - manganese by multiple steel companies are shown [16]. - **Daily Average Hot Metal and Profit**: Data on the weekly daily average hot metal production and weekly profitability rate of 247 Chinese steel enterprises are provided [18]. Manganese Silicon Import and Export - Import and export data of ferrosilicon manganese in China are presented, including monthly export and import quantities [20]. Manganese Silicon Inventory - Data on the weekly inventory of 63 sample silicon - manganese enterprises in China and the monthly average available days of inventory in different regions are provided [22]. Manganese Silicon Cost - **Manganese Ore - Import Volume**: Monthly import volume data of manganese ore from different sources and trade methods are presented [24]. - **Manganese Ore - Port Inventory and Available Days**: Data on the weekly port inventory of manganese ore in China and different ports, as well as the weekly average available days of inventory, are provided [26]. - **Manganese Ore - High - Grade Ore Port Inventory**: Weekly port inventory data of high - grade manganese ore from different origins in different ports are presented [28]. - **Manganese Ore - Tianjin Port Manganese Ore Price**: Daily price data of different types of manganese ore in Tianjin Port are provided [29]. - **Regional Cost**: Daily cost data of silicon - manganese in different regions are presented [30]. Manganese Silicon Profit - Daily profit data of silicon - manganese in different regions are presented [32].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For manganese silicon, the market in August will mainly be characterized by oscillatory adjustments, with strong cost support, so short - selling should be done cautiously [1][4] - For ferrosilicon, there is significant inventory pressure, the fundamentals are weakening, and prices are under pressure [1][52] Summary by Related Catalogs Manganese Silicon 1. Market Review - In July, the futures price of manganese silicon showed a generally strong trend, reaching the daily limit at the end of the month with a maximum increase to 6414 yuan/ton, then quickly falling back. As of July 28, 2025, the closing price of the main manganese silicon contract was 6028 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 6.92% from the beginning of the month. The spot price in Jiangsu was 6050 yuan/ton, and the basis (+22) remained nearly flat [8] 2. Supply - In July, production and the operating rate continued to rise, with factories resuming production in both northern and southern production areas. The daily output in Inner Mongolia was 14,300 tons, maintaining a high - level for the same period. In Yunnan, supply increased significantly during the wet season, with the operating rate exceeding 85%. The estimated output in July was about 815,000 tons [3] 3. Demand - In July, the weekly output of hot metal remained above 2.4 million tons, but the output of rebar did not increase significantly and remained at a low level for the same period. The procurement price of manganese - silicon alloy by a leading steel mill in July was 5850 yuan/ton, and the procurement volume was 14,600 tons. The tender price was in line with market expectations, and the procurement volume was slightly higher than that of the previous year [3] 4. Inventory - The total enterprise inventory was 205,000 tons, a decrease of 17,300 tons from the beginning of the month. As of July 28, the total number of warehouse receipts was 77,600, a decrease of 10,500 from the beginning of the month. The delivery inventory (including forecasts) continued to decline to 390,800 tons, but the inventory level was still at an absolute high [3] 5. Manganese Ore - In June, China's total manganese ore imports were 2.684 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.8%, with the reduction mainly from Gabon and Ghana. In July, the shipments and arrivals from the three major countries increased significantly, while the port clearance volume continued to decline. It is expected that the inventory of manganese ore at ports will increase at a faster rate in August [3] 6. Cost and Profit - The production cost in production areas has increased, with the cost in the north above 5800 yuan/ton and in the south above 6100 yuan/ton. Short - term profit has recovered significantly, but it is still in an inverted state compared with the spot price. Coke has started the fifth round of price increases, and electricity prices in some northern and southern production areas have been adjusted [4] 7. Future Outlook - In the short term, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. In the medium term, supply and demand may gradually return to a loose state. The firm price of raw materials provides strong support for manganese silicon. The market in August will mainly be characterized by oscillatory adjustments. The current commodity valuation is still at a historical low, and the supply security of raw materials is still worthy of attention. Short - selling should be done cautiously. The reference range for the main contract is [5666, 6226] [4] Ferrosilicon 1. Market Review - In July, the futures price of ferrosilicon showed a generally strong trend, reaching the daily limit at the end of the month, then falling back after reaching the high. As of July 28, 2025, the closing price of the main ferrosilicon contract was 5840 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 10.82% from the beginning of the month. The spot price in Jiangsu was 5850 yuan/ton, and the basis (+10) remained nearly flat [55] 2. Supply - In July, the weekly supply continued to rise, but the national operating rate was still at a low level for the same period. The daily output in Ningxia was still over 4000 tons, while the supply levels in other production areas were relatively low. The estimated national output in July was 440,000 - 450,000 tons [51] 3. Demand - In the short term, the profits of steel mills still supported the high - level output of hot metal, but the demand for ferrosilicon showed signs of weakening. The procurement price of ferrosilicon alloy by a leading steel mill in July was 5600 yuan/ton, and the procurement volume was 2700 tons. The tender volume increased significantly. Some steel mills have started the August ferrosilicon tender. In terms of non - steel demand, the domestic magnesium market has been strong recently. From January to June, China's cumulative ferrosilicon exports were 200,000 tons, a decrease of 22,500 tons (a decline of 10.11%) compared with the same period last year [51] 4. Inventory - The total enterprise inventory was 65,600 tons, an increase of 3500 tons from the previous period and a decrease of 17,300 tons from the beginning of the month. As of July 31, the total number of warehouse receipts was 22,100, an increase of 12,900 from the beginning of the month. The delivery inventory (including forecasts) increased to 113,300 tons, reaching a high level for the same period [51] 5. Cost and Profit - The production cost in production areas has decreased slightly, and short - term profit has recovered significantly. The production cost in Ningxia is 5270 yuan/ton (the lowest), with a spot profit of over 300 yuan/ton; the production cost in Gansu is 5539 yuan/ton (the highest), with a spot profit of over 60 yuan/ton. The price of semi - coke first decreased and then increased this month, and the price of lump coal has recently risen, driving the semi - coke market to be strong. The electricity prices in Inner Mongolia and Qinghai have been adjusted [52] 6. Future Outlook - The current fundamentals are weakening marginally, and the cost side still provides support. Factory inventories have accumulated again, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased significantly this month. The overall inventory pressure is large, suppressing the spot price. In the short term, continue to pay attention to the overall sentiment change in the black series and market news disturbances. In the medium term, the fundamentals will gradually return to a loose state, and prices may still be under pressure. The reference range for the main contract is [5466, 5926] [52]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - The macro - positive situation and geopolitical factors support short - term oil price increases, while precious metals are expected to fluctuate due to reduced risk - aversion demand. Base metals, energy, chemical, and agricultural products show diversified trends affected by factors such as supply - demand, policy, and international trade negotiations [2][3] - The stock index market has a good capital sentiment, and the bond market shows signs of stabilization due to the cooling of the "anti - involution" market [46][47] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with Brent's October contract up 2.96%. Favorable macro factors and geopolitical changes support short - term oil prices [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils is in a downward trend. Fuel oil shows relative weakness compared to crude oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil follows crude oil with smaller fluctuations [20] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Overseas market decline due to export pressure, with the domestic market under pressure and maintaining a weak oscillation [22] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals are expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term due to reduced risk - aversion demand. Key data releases such as the Fed meeting and US non - farm payrolls should be monitored this week [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices fell. The market is waiting for US tariff details, and copper prices may decline to the MA60 moving average [4] - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. The increase in ingot inventory and weak demand in the off - season put pressure on prices [5] - **Zinc**: The zinc market returns to the fundamental logic, with supply increasing and consumption showing no significant improvement. The overall strategy is to short on rebounds [8] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of a rebound. Wait for short - selling opportunities as the market may return to fundamentals [10] - **Tin**: Overnight tin prices fell. Long - term supply expectations may suppress prices, and high - level short positions above 270,000 yuan can be held [11] - **Lead**: Shanghai lead oscillates in a narrow range at a low level. Supply pressure slightly eases, and consumption is entering the peak season, but actual growth needs to be observed [9] - **Silicon and Related Alloys**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon futures declined. They are expected to maintain wide - range oscillations, and caution is needed when taking unilateral short positions [13][14] - **Iron and Steel**: Steel prices are affected by factors such as cost support, demand changes, and the "anti - involution" sentiment. They are under short - term pressure and show increased volatility [14] - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market oscillates. Supply and demand show certain changes, and the impact of the "anti - involution" sentiment on the market is weakening [15] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke and coking coal prices oscillate. The supply of carbon elements is sufficient, and the market is affected by factors such as the "anti - involution" sentiment and production policies [16] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium oscillated and hit the daily limit down. The market is affected by factors such as production resumption rumors, inventory changes, and technical indicators. Short - sellers should manage their positions [12] - **Urea**: Urea futures declined. Agricultural demand is weakening, and exports are progressing. The short - term market is expected to operate within a range [23] - **Methanol**: Methanol futures fell. Supply is sufficient, and demand is stable. The market is expected to oscillate weakly if it returns to the fundamental trading logic [24] - **Pure Benzene**: Pure benzene prices adjusted. There are expectations of seasonal improvement in the third - quarter mid - to - late stage and pressure in the fourth quarter. Month - spread band trading is recommended [25] - **Styrene**: Styrene futures faced resistance at the half - year line. Supply pressure is high, and demand is stable [26] - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The market lacks obvious news guidance. Supply is expected to increase, and demand support is limited [27] - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC prices fell from a high level. Supply decreased, and demand is weak in the short term but may improve in the long - term. Caustic soda is expected to face pressure at a high level [28] - **PX and PTA**: PX and PTA prices fell back. PTA continues to accumulate inventory, and the processing margin needs to be repaired with the recovery of downstream demand [29] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol prices fell due to sentiment. Supply may increase, and demand is stable, showing low - level fluctuations [30] - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices followed the decline of raw materials. Short - fiber may be bullish in the medium - term, while bottle - chip is restricted by over - capacity [31] - **Glass**: Glass prices fell. The market is expected to return to reality trading, and long - term demand is poor [32] - **Natural Rubber and Related Products**: The supply of natural rubber is increasing, and demand is weakening. The strategy is to wait and see for natural rubber and bullish for butadiene rubber [33] - **Soda Ash**: Soda ash prices fell. Supply is high, and the photovoltaic industry is reducing production. It is a long - term short - selling product [34] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: Sino - US trade negotiations are the focus. New - season US soybeans may have a good harvest if the weather is favorable. Soybean meal is expected to oscillate before the tariff issue is clear [34] - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: The market is affected by Sino - US trade negotiations and weather. The strategy is to go long on dips, and attention should be paid to the short - term strong - oil and weak - meal situation [35] - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed and rapeseed oil prices are expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, affected by factors such as Sino - Canadian relations and market fundamentals [36] - **Soybean No. 1**: Domestic soybeans decreased in position and adjusted. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations, policy, and US weather [37] - **Corn**: Corn futures may continue to oscillate weakly at the bottom. The market is affected by factors such as auction supply and US corn prices [38] - **Hogs**: Hog futures are expected to be weak in the later stage. The supply in the second half of the year is sufficient, and the industry is recommended to hedge on rallies [39] - **Eggs**: Egg prices are under pressure. The short - term focus is on whether the spot price can rebound seasonally, and long - term positions can be considered in the far - month contracts [40] - **Cotton**: Zheng cotton maintains a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and the situation of US and Brazilian cotton [41] - **Sugar**: US sugar oscillates. Brazilian production expectations are bearish, and domestic sugar prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [42] - **Apples**: Apple prices oscillate. The market focuses on the new - season output estimate, and the current operation is to wait and see [43] - **Timber**: Timber prices are expected to rise. Demand is improving, and inventory is low [44] - **Pulp**: Pulp prices fell. The market is affected by the cooling of the "anti - involution" sentiment and weak fundamentals, showing low - level oscillations [45] Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The A - share market shows differentiation. The stock index futures market is affected by factors such as international trade negotiations and the Fed's decision. The technology - growth sector can be increased in allocation [46] - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bond futures rose. The "anti - involution" market cooling brings signs of stabilization. Attention should be paid to important events and market entry opportunities [47]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For ferrosilicon - manganese, the fundamentals have relatively limited contradictions. The strengthening of coal at the cost - end strongly supports the alloy price. Driven by market sentiment, the price may still have room to rise. The short - term market fluctuates greatly, and cautious operation is recommended. The reference range for the main contract is [6155, 6675] [3][4] - For ferrosilicon, this week's fundamentals show both supply and demand growth. Currently, the factory inventory pressure has been released, but the delivery inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period. In the short term, driven by market sentiment, the price may still have room to rise. In the medium term, the fundamentals will gradually return to a loose state, and the price may be under pressure. The reference range for the main contract is [5955, 6375] [52][53] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Manganese - Silicon 1.1 Market Review - As of July 25, the closing price of the manganese - silicon main contract was 6414 yuan/ton, the spot price in Jiangsu was 6090 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 324 yuan/ton [7] - Spot prices in the main production areas increased by 50 - 170 yuan/ton [8] 1.2 Supply - As of July 25, the total national silicon - manganese output was 186,480 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,640 tons; the operating rate was 41.58%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.05%. Inner Mongolia's daily average output increased by 150 tons/day; Yunnan's daily average output increased by 160 tons/day, and the operating rate increased to 85.38% [13] 1.3 Demand - As of July 25, the weekly demand for silicon - manganese was 123,670 tons, a week - on - week increase of 289 tons. The daily average output of molten iron from 247 steel enterprises was 2.4223 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.21 million tons; the weekly output of rebar was 2.1196 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 29,000 tons [17] - Hebei Iron and Steel Group's procurement price for silicon - manganese alloy in July was 5,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton compared with June; the procurement volume was 14,600 tons, an increase of 2,900 tons compared with June [21] 1.4 Inventory - The total inventory of alloy plants was 205,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,300 tons [22] 1.5 Cost and Profit - The immediate costs in Inner Mongolia and Guangxi were 5,736.34 yuan/ton and 6,240.59 yuan/ton respectively; the production profits were - 56.34 yuan/ton and - 540.59 yuan/ton respectively [27] 1.6 Manganese Ore - As of July 25, the prices of manganese ore at Tianjin Port increased slightly. South32's August manganese ore quotes to China showed some price adjustments [29][33] - The shipping and arrival volumes decreased month - on - month, and the decline in the port clearance volume slowed down. The port inventory was expected to remain at a low level in the short term [4] - As of July 18, the total national port inventory was 4.285 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 42,000 tons; Tianjin Port's inventory was 3.42 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 64,000 tons [38] - The average available days of manganese ore inventory in alloy plants was 13 days, a month - on - month increase of 2.36% [41] 1.7 Other Costs - The power price in the production area remained stable, and the ex - factory price of chemical coke in Ningxia was 1,090 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared with last week [44] 2. Ferrosilicon 2.1 Market Review - As of July 25, the closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract was 6,166 yuan/ton, the spot price in Jiangsu was 5,900 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 266 yuan/ton [56] - Spot prices in the main production areas increased by 250 - 300 yuan/ton [57] 2.2 Supply - As of July 25, the weekly output of ferrosilicon was 102,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23,000 tons; the operating rate was 32.33%, a week - on - week increase of 0.88% [60] 2.3 Demand - As of July 25, the weekly demand for ferrosilicon was 20,065.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 52 tons [63] - Hebei Iron and Steel Group's procurement price for ferrosilicon alloy in July was 5,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared with June; the procurement volume was 2,700 tons, an increase of 500 tons compared with June [66] - In June, the output of magnesium ingots decreased month - on - month, and the export volume of ferrosilicon continued to decline month - on - month. From January to June, the cumulative export volume of ferrosilicon was 200,047 tons, a decrease of 22,498 tons (a decline of 10.11%) compared with the same period last year [69] 2.4 Inventory - The total enterprise inventory was 62,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,400 tons [70] 2.5 Cost and Profit - The immediate costs in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia were 5,421 yuan/ton and 5,274 yuan/ton respectively; the production profits were 79 yuan/ton and 226 yuan/ton respectively [74] - The price of small - sized semi - coke in Shaanxi was 540 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged compared with last week [74]

Core Insights - In May, the procurement costs of most primary raw materials for enterprises decreased month-on-month, except for metallurgical coke, domestic pellets, and imported pellets, which saw slight increases [1] Group 1: Procurement Cost Changes - Coking coal procurement cost decreased by 0.91% month-on-month, with an average cost of 1227.16 CNY/ton in May, and a year-on-year decrease of 32.26% [2] - Injection coal procurement cost decreased by 2.94% month-on-month, with an average cost of 903.47 CNY/ton in May, and a year-on-year decrease of 13.76% [3] - Metallurgical coke procurement cost increased by 0.96% month-on-month, with an average cost of 1474.85 CNY/ton in May, but a year-on-year decrease of 28.53% [4] - Domestic iron concentrate procurement cost decreased by 0.05% month-on-month, with an average cost of 762.98 CNY/ton in May, and a year-on-year decrease of 14.35% [5] - Imported powder ore procurement cost decreased by 1.59% month-on-month, with an average cost of 750.01 CNY/ton in May, and a year-on-year decrease of 15.66% [6] - Scrap steel procurement cost decreased by 0.60% month-on-month, with an average cost of 2158.02 CNY/ton in May, and a year-on-year decrease of 14.46% [8] - Silicon manganese alloy procurement cost decreased by 3.59% month-on-month, with an average cost of 5265.77 CNY/ton in May, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.09% [9] - Manganese alloy procurement cost decreased by 3.17% month-on-month, with an average cost of 6236.93 CNY/ton in May, but a year-on-year increase of 0.69% [10] Group 2: Comparative Analysis - The lowest five enterprises for coking coal procurement had an average cost of 1057.82 CNY/ton, which is 19.09% lower than the average procurement cost [2] - The lowest five enterprises for injection coal procurement had an average cost of 739.41 CNY/ton, which is 24.49% lower than the average procurement cost [3] - The lowest five enterprises for metallurgical coke procurement had an average cost of 1339.75 CNY/ton, which is 13.35% lower than the average procurement cost [4] - The lowest five enterprises for domestic iron concentrate procurement had an average cost of 659.26 CNY/ton, which is 14.95% lower than the average procurement cost [5] - The lowest five enterprises for imported powder ore procurement had an average cost of 723.08 CNY/ton, which is 7.57% lower than the average procurement cost [6] - The lowest five enterprises for scrap steel procurement had an average cost of 1924.10 CNY/ton, which is 12.49% lower than the average procurement cost [8] - The lowest five enterprises for silicon manganese alloy procurement had an average cost of 5248.31 CNY/ton, which is 5.13% lower than the average procurement cost [9] - The lowest five enterprises for manganese alloy procurement had an average cost of 4872.49 CNY/ton, which is 25.59% lower than the average procurement cost [10]