证券代码：601069 证券简称：西部黄金 公告编号： 2025-057 西部黄金股份有限公司 二、2025 年半年度（1-6 月）产销量情况分析表 2025 年半年度经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性依法承担法律责任。 根据上海证券交易所《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 3 号——行 业信息披露》要求，现将西部黄金股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）2025 年 半年度（1-6 月）主要有色金属品种产销量及盈利情况披露如下（财务数据未经 审计）： 一、2025 年半年度（1-6 月）主营业务分行业、分产品、分地区、分销售模式情况 单位：元 币种：人民币 | | | 主营业务分行业情况 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 分行业 | 营业收入 | 营业成本 | 毛利率（%） | 营业收入比上年增 | 营业成本比上 | 毛利率比上年增减 | | | | | | 减（%） | 年增减（%） | （%） | | 黄金行业 | 4,343,763 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost of ferrosilicon manganese is further supported by the high prices of manganese ore and coke, as well as the increase in freight for northern manganese ore due to transportation restrictions during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit in Tianjin in late August [2]. - The supply side shows positive production sentiment in alloy plants in both the north and south. Factories in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia have relatively low spot inventories and mainly focus on fulfilling forward orders. The start - up rates in Guangxi and Yunnan are gradually rising [2]. - The demand side is supported by the increase in both the procurement volume and price by Hegang Group in August. Hegang's August silicon - manganese procurement price is 6,200 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan from the first inquiry and 350 yuan from July, and the procurement volume is 16,100 tons, up from 14,600 tons in July [2]. - Overall, the spot price rose significantly this week driven by cost and demand, and the market sentiment is positive. It is expected that the short - term price of ferrosilicon manganese will remain firm, and the market will continue to fluctuate in the short term [2][3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Manganese Silicon Supply - **Capacity**: Data on the monthly capacity of Chinese silicon - manganese enterprises and the annual production of silicon - manganese in different regions of China are presented [7][8]. - **Production - Annual**: No specific text summary content, but annual production data are shown [9]. - **Production - Weekly, Monthly, and Start - up Rate**: Data on the weekly and monthly production of Chinese silicon - manganese and the weekly start - up rate of Chinese silicon - manganese enterprises are provided [11]. - **Production - Regional Production**: Monthly production data of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guizhou, as well as daily average production data of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guizhou, and Guangxi are presented [12][13]. Manganese Silicon Demand - **Steel Tendering and Procurement Price**: The monthly procurement prices of silicon - manganese by multiple steel companies are shown [16]. - **Daily Average Hot Metal and Profit**: Data on the weekly daily average hot metal production and weekly profitability rate of 247 Chinese steel enterprises are provided [18]. Manganese Silicon Import and Export - Import and export data of ferrosilicon manganese in China are presented, including monthly export and import quantities [20]. Manganese Silicon Inventory - Data on the weekly inventory of 63 sample silicon - manganese enterprises in China and the monthly average available days of inventory in different regions are provided [22]. Manganese Silicon Cost - **Manganese Ore - Import Volume**: Monthly import volume data of manganese ore from different sources and trade methods are presented [24]. - **Manganese Ore - Port Inventory and Available Days**: Data on the weekly port inventory of manganese ore in China and different ports, as well as the weekly average available days of inventory, are provided [26]. - **Manganese Ore - High - Grade Ore Port Inventory**: Weekly port inventory data of high - grade manganese ore from different origins in different ports are presented [28]. - **Manganese Ore - Tianjin Port Manganese Ore Price**: Daily price data of different types of manganese ore in Tianjin Port are provided [29]. - **Regional Cost**: Daily cost data of silicon - manganese in different regions are presented [30]. Manganese Silicon Profit - Daily profit data of silicon - manganese in different regions are presented [32].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For manganese silicon, the market in August will mainly be characterized by oscillatory adjustments, with strong cost support, so short - selling should be done cautiously [1][4] - For ferrosilicon, there is significant inventory pressure, the fundamentals are weakening, and prices are under pressure [1][52] Summary by Related Catalogs Manganese Silicon 1. Market Review - In July, the futures price of manganese silicon showed a generally strong trend, reaching the daily limit at the end of the month with a maximum increase to 6414 yuan/ton, then quickly falling back. As of July 28, 2025, the closing price of the main manganese silicon contract was 6028 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 6.92% from the beginning of the month. The spot price in Jiangsu was 6050 yuan/ton, and the basis (+22) remained nearly flat [8] 2. Supply - In July, production and the operating rate continued to rise, with factories resuming production in both northern and southern production areas. The daily output in Inner Mongolia was 14,300 tons, maintaining a high - level for the same period. In Yunnan, supply increased significantly during the wet season, with the operating rate exceeding 85%. The estimated output in July was about 815,000 tons [3] 3. Demand - In July, the weekly output of hot metal remained above 2.4 million tons, but the output of rebar did not increase significantly and remained at a low level for the same period. The procurement price of manganese - silicon alloy by a leading steel mill in July was 5850 yuan/ton, and the procurement volume was 14,600 tons. The tender price was in line with market expectations, and the procurement volume was slightly higher than that of the previous year [3] 4. Inventory - The total enterprise inventory was 205,000 tons, a decrease of 17,300 tons from the beginning of the month. As of July 28, the total number of warehouse receipts was 77,600, a decrease of 10,500 from the beginning of the month. The delivery inventory (including forecasts) continued to decline to 390,800 tons, but the inventory level was still at an absolute high [3] 5. Manganese Ore - In June, China's total manganese ore imports were 2.684 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.8%, with the reduction mainly from Gabon and Ghana. In July, the shipments and arrivals from the three major countries increased significantly, while the port clearance volume continued to decline. It is expected that the inventory of manganese ore at ports will increase at a faster rate in August [3] 6. Cost and Profit - The production cost in production areas has increased, with the cost in the north above 5800 yuan/ton and in the south above 6100 yuan/ton. Short - term profit has recovered significantly, but it is still in an inverted state compared with the spot price. Coke has started the fifth round of price increases, and electricity prices in some northern and southern production areas have been adjusted [4] 7. Future Outlook - In the short term, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. In the medium term, supply and demand may gradually return to a loose state. The firm price of raw materials provides strong support for manganese silicon. The market in August will mainly be characterized by oscillatory adjustments. The current commodity valuation is still at a historical low, and the supply security of raw materials is still worthy of attention. Short - selling should be done cautiously. The reference range for the main contract is [5666, 6226] [4] Ferrosilicon 1. Market Review - In July, the futures price of ferrosilicon showed a generally strong trend, reaching the daily limit at the end of the month, then falling back after reaching the high. As of July 28, 2025, the closing price of the main ferrosilicon contract was 5840 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 10.82% from the beginning of the month. The spot price in Jiangsu was 5850 yuan/ton, and the basis (+10) remained nearly flat [55] 2. Supply - In July, the weekly supply continued to rise, but the national operating rate was still at a low level for the same period. The daily output in Ningxia was still over 4000 tons, while the supply levels in other production areas were relatively low. The estimated national output in July was 440,000 - 450,000 tons [51] 3. Demand - In the short term, the profits of steel mills still supported the high - level output of hot metal, but the demand for ferrosilicon showed signs of weakening. The procurement price of ferrosilicon alloy by a leading steel mill in July was 5600 yuan/ton, and the procurement volume was 2700 tons. The tender volume increased significantly. Some steel mills have started the August ferrosilicon tender. In terms of non - steel demand, the domestic magnesium market has been strong recently. From January to June, China's cumulative ferrosilicon exports were 200,000 tons, a decrease of 22,500 tons (a decline of 10.11%) compared with the same period last year [51] 4. Inventory - The total enterprise inventory was 65,600 tons, an increase of 3500 tons from the previous period and a decrease of 17,300 tons from the beginning of the month. As of July 31, the total number of warehouse receipts was 22,100, an increase of 12,900 from the beginning of the month. The delivery inventory (including forecasts) increased to 113,300 tons, reaching a high level for the same period [51] 5. Cost and Profit - The production cost in production areas has decreased slightly, and short - term profit has recovered significantly. The production cost in Ningxia is 5270 yuan/ton (the lowest), with a spot profit of over 300 yuan/ton; the production cost in Gansu is 5539 yuan/ton (the highest), with a spot profit of over 60 yuan/ton. The price of semi - coke first decreased and then increased this month, and the price of lump coal has recently risen, driving the semi - coke market to be strong. The electricity prices in Inner Mongolia and Qinghai have been adjusted [52] 6. Future Outlook - The current fundamentals are weakening marginally, and the cost side still provides support. Factory inventories have accumulated again, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased significantly this month. The overall inventory pressure is large, suppressing the spot price. In the short term, continue to pay attention to the overall sentiment change in the black series and market news disturbances. In the medium term, the fundamentals will gradually return to a loose state, and prices may still be under pressure. The reference range for the main contract is [5466, 5926] [52]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - The macro - positive situation and geopolitical factors support short - term oil price increases, while precious metals are expected to fluctuate due to reduced risk - aversion demand. Base metals, energy, chemical, and agricultural products show diversified trends affected by factors such as supply - demand, policy, and international trade negotiations [2][3] - The stock index market has a good capital sentiment, and the bond market shows signs of stabilization due to the cooling of the "anti - involution" market [46][47] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with Brent's October contract up 2.96%. Favorable macro factors and geopolitical changes support short - term oil prices [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils is in a downward trend. Fuel oil shows relative weakness compared to crude oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil follows crude oil with smaller fluctuations [20] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Overseas market decline due to export pressure, with the domestic market under pressure and maintaining a weak oscillation [22] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals are expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term due to reduced risk - aversion demand. Key data releases such as the Fed meeting and US non - farm payrolls should be monitored this week [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices fell. The market is waiting for US tariff details, and copper prices may decline to the MA60 moving average [4] - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. The increase in ingot inventory and weak demand in the off - season put pressure on prices [5] - **Zinc**: The zinc market returns to the fundamental logic, with supply increasing and consumption showing no significant improvement. The overall strategy is to short on rebounds [8] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of a rebound. Wait for short - selling opportunities as the market may return to fundamentals [10] - **Tin**: Overnight tin prices fell. Long - term supply expectations may suppress prices, and high - level short positions above 270,000 yuan can be held [11] - **Lead**: Shanghai lead oscillates in a narrow range at a low level. Supply pressure slightly eases, and consumption is entering the peak season, but actual growth needs to be observed [9] - **Silicon and Related Alloys**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon futures declined. They are expected to maintain wide - range oscillations, and caution is needed when taking unilateral short positions [13][14] - **Iron and Steel**: Steel prices are affected by factors such as cost support, demand changes, and the "anti - involution" sentiment. They are under short - term pressure and show increased volatility [14] - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market oscillates. Supply and demand show certain changes, and the impact of the "anti - involution" sentiment on the market is weakening [15] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke and coking coal prices oscillate. The supply of carbon elements is sufficient, and the market is affected by factors such as the "anti - involution" sentiment and production policies [16] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium oscillated and hit the daily limit down. The market is affected by factors such as production resumption rumors, inventory changes, and technical indicators. Short - sellers should manage their positions [12] - **Urea**: Urea futures declined. Agricultural demand is weakening, and exports are progressing. The short - term market is expected to operate within a range [23] - **Methanol**: Methanol futures fell. Supply is sufficient, and demand is stable. The market is expected to oscillate weakly if it returns to the fundamental trading logic [24] - **Pure Benzene**: Pure benzene prices adjusted. There are expectations of seasonal improvement in the third - quarter mid - to - late stage and pressure in the fourth quarter. Month - spread band trading is recommended [25] - **Styrene**: Styrene futures faced resistance at the half - year line. Supply pressure is high, and demand is stable [26] - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The market lacks obvious news guidance. Supply is expected to increase, and demand support is limited [27] - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC prices fell from a high level. Supply decreased, and demand is weak in the short term but may improve in the long - term. Caustic soda is expected to face pressure at a high level [28] - **PX and PTA**: PX and PTA prices fell back. PTA continues to accumulate inventory, and the processing margin needs to be repaired with the recovery of downstream demand [29] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol prices fell due to sentiment. Supply may increase, and demand is stable, showing low - level fluctuations [30] - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices followed the decline of raw materials. Short - fiber may be bullish in the medium - term, while bottle - chip is restricted by over - capacity [31] - **Glass**: Glass prices fell. The market is expected to return to reality trading, and long - term demand is poor [32] - **Natural Rubber and Related Products**: The supply of natural rubber is increasing, and demand is weakening. The strategy is to wait and see for natural rubber and bullish for butadiene rubber [33] - **Soda Ash**: Soda ash prices fell. Supply is high, and the photovoltaic industry is reducing production. It is a long - term short - selling product [34] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: Sino - US trade negotiations are the focus. New - season US soybeans may have a good harvest if the weather is favorable. Soybean meal is expected to oscillate before the tariff issue is clear [34] - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: The market is affected by Sino - US trade negotiations and weather. The strategy is to go long on dips, and attention should be paid to the short - term strong - oil and weak - meal situation [35] - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed and rapeseed oil prices are expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, affected by factors such as Sino - Canadian relations and market fundamentals [36] - **Soybean No. 1**: Domestic soybeans decreased in position and adjusted. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations, policy, and US weather [37] - **Corn**: Corn futures may continue to oscillate weakly at the bottom. The market is affected by factors such as auction supply and US corn prices [38] - **Hogs**: Hog futures are expected to be weak in the later stage. The supply in the second half of the year is sufficient, and the industry is recommended to hedge on rallies [39] - **Eggs**: Egg prices are under pressure. The short - term focus is on whether the spot price can rebound seasonally, and long - term positions can be considered in the far - month contracts [40] - **Cotton**: Zheng cotton maintains a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and the situation of US and Brazilian cotton [41] - **Sugar**: US sugar oscillates. Brazilian production expectations are bearish, and domestic sugar prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [42] - **Apples**: Apple prices oscillate. The market focuses on the new - season output estimate, and the current operation is to wait and see [43] - **Timber**: Timber prices are expected to rise. Demand is improving, and inventory is low [44] - **Pulp**: Pulp prices fell. The market is affected by the cooling of the "anti - involution" sentiment and weak fundamentals, showing low - level oscillations [45] Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The A - share market shows differentiation. The stock index futures market is affected by factors such as international trade negotiations and the Fed's decision. The technology - growth sector can be increased in allocation [46] - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bond futures rose. The "anti - involution" market cooling brings signs of stabilization. Attention should be paid to important events and market entry opportunities [47]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For ferrosilicon - manganese, the fundamentals have relatively limited contradictions. The strengthening of coal at the cost - end strongly supports the alloy price. Driven by market sentiment, the price may still have room to rise. The short - term market fluctuates greatly, and cautious operation is recommended. The reference range for the main contract is [6155, 6675] [3][4] - For ferrosilicon, this week's fundamentals show both supply and demand growth. Currently, the factory inventory pressure has been released, but the delivery inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period. In the short term, driven by market sentiment, the price may still have room to rise. In the medium term, the fundamentals will gradually return to a loose state, and the price may be under pressure. The reference range for the main contract is [5955, 6375] [52][53] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Manganese - Silicon 1.1 Market Review - As of July 25, the closing price of the manganese - silicon main contract was 6414 yuan/ton, the spot price in Jiangsu was 6090 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 324 yuan/ton [7] - Spot prices in the main production areas increased by 50 - 170 yuan/ton [8] 1.2 Supply - As of July 25, the total national silicon - manganese output was 186,480 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,640 tons; the operating rate was 41.58%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.05%. Inner Mongolia's daily average output increased by 150 tons/day; Yunnan's daily average output increased by 160 tons/day, and the operating rate increased to 85.38% [13] 1.3 Demand - As of July 25, the weekly demand for silicon - manganese was 123,670 tons, a week - on - week increase of 289 tons. The daily average output of molten iron from 247 steel enterprises was 2.4223 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.21 million tons; the weekly output of rebar was 2.1196 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 29,000 tons [17] - Hebei Iron and Steel Group's procurement price for silicon - manganese alloy in July was 5,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton compared with June; the procurement volume was 14,600 tons, an increase of 2,900 tons compared with June [21] 1.4 Inventory - The total inventory of alloy plants was 205,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,300 tons [22] 1.5 Cost and Profit - The immediate costs in Inner Mongolia and Guangxi were 5,736.34 yuan/ton and 6,240.59 yuan/ton respectively; the production profits were - 56.34 yuan/ton and - 540.59 yuan/ton respectively [27] 1.6 Manganese Ore - As of July 25, the prices of manganese ore at Tianjin Port increased slightly. South32's August manganese ore quotes to China showed some price adjustments [29][33] - The shipping and arrival volumes decreased month - on - month, and the decline in the port clearance volume slowed down. The port inventory was expected to remain at a low level in the short term [4] - As of July 18, the total national port inventory was 4.285 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 42,000 tons; Tianjin Port's inventory was 3.42 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 64,000 tons [38] - The average available days of manganese ore inventory in alloy plants was 13 days, a month - on - month increase of 2.36% [41] 1.7 Other Costs - The power price in the production area remained stable, and the ex - factory price of chemical coke in Ningxia was 1,090 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared with last week [44] 2. Ferrosilicon 2.1 Market Review - As of July 25, the closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract was 6,166 yuan/ton, the spot price in Jiangsu was 5,900 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 266 yuan/ton [56] - Spot prices in the main production areas increased by 250 - 300 yuan/ton [57] 2.2 Supply - As of July 25, the weekly output of ferrosilicon was 102,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23,000 tons; the operating rate was 32.33%, a week - on - week increase of 0.88% [60] 2.3 Demand - As of July 25, the weekly demand for ferrosilicon was 20,065.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 52 tons [63] - Hebei Iron and Steel Group's procurement price for ferrosilicon alloy in July was 5,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared with June; the procurement volume was 2,700 tons, an increase of 500 tons compared with June [66] - In June, the output of magnesium ingots decreased month - on - month, and the export volume of ferrosilicon continued to decline month - on - month. From January to June, the cumulative export volume of ferrosilicon was 200,047 tons, a decrease of 22,498 tons (a decline of 10.11%) compared with the same period last year [69] 2.4 Inventory - The total enterprise inventory was 62,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,400 tons [70] 2.5 Cost and Profit - The immediate costs in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia were 5,421 yuan/ton and 5,274 yuan/ton respectively; the production profits were 79 yuan/ton and 226 yuan/ton respectively [74] - The price of small - sized semi - coke in Shaanxi was 540 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged compared with last week [74]

Core Insights - In May, the procurement costs of most primary raw materials for enterprises decreased month-on-month, except for metallurgical coke, domestic pellets, and imported pellets, which saw slight increases [1] Group 1: Procurement Cost Changes - Coking coal procurement cost decreased by 0.91% month-on-month, with an average cost of 1227.16 CNY/ton in May, and a year-on-year decrease of 32.26% [2] - Injection coal procurement cost decreased by 2.94% month-on-month, with an average cost of 903.47 CNY/ton in May, and a year-on-year decrease of 13.76% [3] - Metallurgical coke procurement cost increased by 0.96% month-on-month, with an average cost of 1474.85 CNY/ton in May, but a year-on-year decrease of 28.53% [4] - Domestic iron concentrate procurement cost decreased by 0.05% month-on-month, with an average cost of 762.98 CNY/ton in May, and a year-on-year decrease of 14.35% [5] - Imported powder ore procurement cost decreased by 1.59% month-on-month, with an average cost of 750.01 CNY/ton in May, and a year-on-year decrease of 15.66% [6] - Scrap steel procurement cost decreased by 0.60% month-on-month, with an average cost of 2158.02 CNY/ton in May, and a year-on-year decrease of 14.46% [8] - Silicon manganese alloy procurement cost decreased by 3.59% month-on-month, with an average cost of 5265.77 CNY/ton in May, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.09% [9] - Manganese alloy procurement cost decreased by 3.17% month-on-month, with an average cost of 6236.93 CNY/ton in May, but a year-on-year increase of 0.69% [10] Group 2: Comparative Analysis - The lowest five enterprises for coking coal procurement had an average cost of 1057.82 CNY/ton, which is 19.09% lower than the average procurement cost [2] - The lowest five enterprises for injection coal procurement had an average cost of 739.41 CNY/ton, which is 24.49% lower than the average procurement cost [3] - The lowest five enterprises for metallurgical coke procurement had an average cost of 1339.75 CNY/ton, which is 13.35% lower than the average procurement cost [4] - The lowest five enterprises for domestic iron concentrate procurement had an average cost of 659.26 CNY/ton, which is 14.95% lower than the average procurement cost [5] - The lowest five enterprises for imported powder ore procurement had an average cost of 723.08 CNY/ton, which is 7.57% lower than the average procurement cost [6] - The lowest five enterprises for scrap steel procurement had an average cost of 1924.10 CNY/ton, which is 12.49% lower than the average procurement cost [8] - The lowest five enterprises for silicon manganese alloy procurement had an average cost of 5248.31 CNY/ton, which is 5.13% lower than the average procurement cost [9] - The lowest five enterprises for manganese alloy procurement had an average cost of 4872.49 CNY/ton, which is 25.59% lower than the average procurement cost [10]

Group 1 - Both silicon futures have hit the upper limit on price increase, indicating strong market demand [1] - Silicon manganese production enterprises have achieved a 40% reduction in energy consumption and emissions, reflecting a shift towards more sustainable practices [1] - Analysts suggest that the recent news was unexpected, leading to a rapid increase in market positions, and anticipate that without further policy intervention, manganese silicon and silicon iron are likely to open higher next week [1]

Market Overview - On July 25, A-shares experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3600 points, while technology stocks, particularly in semiconductors and AI, surged, leading the STAR 50 Index to rise over 2% [1] - The market saw a style shift towards technology stocks, driven by three main catalysts: the upcoming World Artificial Intelligence Conference in Shanghai from July 26 to 28, rumors of OpenAI's GPT-5 release in early August, and Alibaba's launch of the Qwen3-Coder AI programming model [1] Sector Performance - The AI application industry chain was notably active, with stocks like Huawei concepts, Sora concepts, and multimodal AI seeing significant gains, including stocks like SAI Group and Zhizhen Technology hitting the daily limit [1] - The medical device sector also performed well, with Zhengchuan shares hitting the daily limit, while the cultural media sector saw Hubei Broadcasting rise sharply [1] - Other sectors such as education, film and television, small appliances, and aquaculture showed positive performance, while the recent popular hydropower concept continued to decline, with Huaxin Cement experiencing a significant drop [1] Individual Stock Movements - A total of 2533 stocks rose, while 2726 fell, with 49 stocks hitting the daily limit and 16 stocks hitting the lower limit [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.33% at 3593.66 points, with a trading volume of 821.6 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.22% to 11168.14 points, with a trading volume of 958 billion yuan [2] Fund Flow - Today's main capital inflows were observed in sectors such as semiconductors, IT services, software development, advertising, and logistics, while capital outflows were noted in infrastructure, small metals, cement, chemicals, and electricity sectors [3] Policy Developments - The establishment of national data factor pilot zones in ten provinces, including Beijing, Liaoning, and Zhejiang, aims to accelerate the exploration of market-oriented data value paths, with a focus on data property rights and market ecology [4] - A seminar on manganese alloy production highlighted a consensus among leading manganese companies to achieve a 40% reduction in emissions from silicon-manganese alloy production, promoting supply-demand balance in the manganese alloy market [5] Market Outlook - Dongguan Securities suggests that the market may maintain a strong technical position in the short term, with upward momentum likely, while also noting potential increased selling pressure [10] - Shenyin Wanguo indicates that the necessary conditions for a bull market are gradually accumulating, with expectations for a market breakout in the fourth quarter of 2025 [8] - Industrial rotation is expected to continue, with a focus on structural main lines as macroeconomic conditions remain stable [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For silicon manganese, the cost support is expected to weaken, and the industrial fundamentals have improved, but due to the overall decline in the prices of the black series, the market bearish sentiment remains. The medium - and short - term market may still be in the process of finding or establishing a bottom, with prices remaining weak. The main contract reference range is [5250, 5800] [3]. - For silicon iron, under the background of industrial production cuts, the supply - demand contradiction has eased. The current supply has dropped to the lowest level in the same period, while the demand faces the risk of seasonal decline, and the cost support is still insufficient. The market may continue to find a bottom, and prices are expected to remain weak. The main contract reference range is [5150, 5500] [45]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Silicon Manganese Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: In May, production and operating rates declined significantly, with factories in both northern and southern regions undergoing maintenance. Some factories have resumed production slightly after maintenance. The daily output in Inner Mongolia is 13,400 tons, still at a relatively high level in the same period. Yunnan factories also have plans to resume production in June. The estimated total national silicon manganese production in May is about 740,000 tons [3]. - Demand: In May, hot metal production declined month - on - month and may have peaked, but it is still at a relatively high level in the same period, providing short - term rigid support for silicon manganese demand. In terms of steel procurement, the mainstream steel mills' procurement price of silicon manganese alloy in May was 5,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to April, and the procurement quantity was 11,600 tons, an increase of 200 tons compared to April. Most steel mills' tender prices decreased, with strong price - pressing sentiment. Recent news of crude steel production restrictions has disturbed the market [3]. Manganese Ore Overview - The news of South Africa's export restrictions briefly disturbed the market, but its impact has gradually dissipated. The manganese ore market remains weak, with low trading volume, and factories mainly replenish stocks on demand. In May, shipping and arrival volumes increased significantly, while the port clearance volume declined from a high level. South32 has resumed shipping, but the overall shipping volume is low. It is expected that port inventories will slowly recover at a low level [3]. Cost and Profit - The entire industry's loss has intensified, and the expectation of production cuts remains. However, the room for further production cuts in the southern region is limited, and attention should be paid to the operating conditions in low - cost regions. The second - round price cut of coke has been implemented, and there is still an expectation of further price cuts. Electricity prices in both northern and southern regions have decreased to varying degrees, and there is still an expectation of an electricity price cut in Ningxia in June [3]. Market Outlook - Overall, the cost support for silicon manganese is expected to weaken. Although the industrial fundamentals have improved, the market bearish sentiment remains due to the overall decline in the prices of the black series. The medium - and short - term market may still be in the process of finding or establishing a bottom, with prices remaining weak. The upward drive depends on "deep production cuts" in the industry or external environmental disturbances [3]. Silicon Iron Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: In May, production and operating rates declined significantly. Since mid - April, more factories in production areas have undergone maintenance, and the operating rates in multiple production areas have dropped to the lowest level in the same period. The estimated total national production in May is 410,000 - 420,000 tons [44]. - Demand: In the short term, steel mills' profits still support the high - level hot metal production, and the demand for silicon iron remains resilient. The progress of steel procurement in May was slow, with most steel mills' tender prices decreasing to varying degrees, and strong price - pressing sentiment. A leading steel mill's procurement price of silicon iron alloy in May was 5,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton compared to April, and the procurement quantity was 2,130 tons, an increase of 430 tons compared to April. Non - steel demand: The downstream magnesium metal market remains weak, with low trading volume, and cannot strongly support silicon iron. In terms of exports, the export volume of silicon iron increased month - on - month in April, but the cumulative export volume from January to April decreased significantly compared to the same period last year. Affected by the increase in Southeast Asian orders, the export volume in May is expected to increase slightly month - on - month but still be lower than the level of the same period last year [44]. Cost and Profit - The semi - coke market remains weakly stable. The price of lump coal at the raw material end continues to be weak, and cannot strongly support the semi - coke price. The maintenance season in May is coming to an end, and factories may gradually resume production. The price of small materials in Shaanxi decreased by 40 yuan/ton this month. There is still an expectation of an electricity price cut in Ningxia, and attention should be paid to the electricity price changes in each production area [44]. Market Outlook - Under the background of industrial production cuts, the supply - demand contradiction has eased. The current supply has dropped to the lowest level in the same period, while the demand faces the risk of seasonal decline, and the cost support is still insufficient. The market may continue to find a bottom, and prices are expected to remain weak [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment has been significantly boosted by the better - than - expected results of the China - US trade negotiation, causing the rebar to rebound from its low level. However, the increase in inventory and the decline in apparent demand have dampened bullish sentiment. The market is shifting from strong reality to weak reality, with short - term support from the significant tariff reduction between China and the US, but the weak expectation remains unchanged. For rebar and hot - rolled coils, it is advisable to wait and see, and consider buying at low prices after full adjustment [2]. - Currently, the profitability of steel mills is decent, and the molten iron is in a recovery trend. However, the apparent demand for steel has declined significantly, and it is expected that the molten iron production has likely peaked. If a production restriction policy is introduced in the future, it will further suppress the demand for iron ore. On the supply side, global shipments are at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The current slowdown in port inventory decline and the high proportion of trade ore inventory put pressure on futures prices. For iron ore, it is recommended to mainly rely on technical analysis, hold short positions lightly, and exit at low prices in a timely manner [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils 3.1.1 Market Background - The results of the China - US trade negotiation have far exceeded market expectations, boosting market confidence. The production has decreased, factory inventory has increased significantly, social inventory has continued to decline, total inventory has increased, and apparent demand has dropped sharply. Policy - side benefits have basically materialized, and the real - estate market in core cities has stabilized while that in lower - tier cities is still bottoming out. The rumor of production restriction has limited impact on the market, but the production side believes that a production restriction policy is likely to be introduced this year [2]. 3.1.2 Technical Analysis - In the short term, there has been a significant rebound, and after a downward trend, it has entered a low - level oscillation [2]. 3.1.3 Operation Suggestion - Adopt a wait - and - see approach. After the negative factors are fully priced in and full adjustment, consider buying at low prices. Be cautious about chasing up to avoid short - term profit - taking [2]. 3.1.4 Data Overview - **Price Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract is 3079 yuan/ton, down 0.10% from the previous day and up 0.06% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3215 yuan/ton, down 0.16% from the previous day and up 0.59% from last week. Other related spot and futures prices also show different changes [2]. - **Base and Spread Data**: The rebar main base is 141 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan from the previous day and 8 yuan from last week; the hot - rolled coil main base is 45 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan from the previous day and up 1 yuan from last week. There are also various changes in different futures spreads [2]. - **Production and Inventory Data**: The national building materials steel mill rebar production is 223.53 tons, down 4.22% from last week; the hot - rolled coil production is 320.38 tons, up 2.79% from last week. The inventory of five major varieties of social inventory, rebar social inventory, hot - rolled coil social inventory, and five major varieties of factory inventory shows different trends of increase and decrease [2]. - **Market Transaction Data**: The 7 - day moving average of the national building steel trading volume is 18.65 tons, down 17.68% from the previous day and up 66.31% from last week; the line - screw terminal procurement volume in Shanghai is 13200 tons, down 9.59% from last week [2]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of registered rebar warehouse receipts is 148997 tons, down 19706 tons from the previous day and 42344 tons from last week; the number of registered hot - rolled coil warehouse receipts is 281489 tons, down 9957 tons from the previous day and 42000 tons from last week [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore 3.2.1 Market Background - The profitability of steel mills is good, and the molten iron production is in a recovery trend. However, the apparent demand for steel has declined significantly, and it is expected that the molten iron production has likely peaked. If a production restriction policy is introduced, it will suppress the demand for iron ore. On the supply side, global shipments are at a high level and rising seasonally, and the current slowdown in port inventory decline and high proportion of trade ore inventory put pressure on futures prices [4]. 3.2.2 Technical Analysis - The futures price has broken through the recent oscillation range, the open interest has continued to increase, and the price has dropped to near the long - term trend line [4]. 3.2.3 Operation Suggestion - Judge mainly based on technical trends, hold short positions lightly, and exit at low prices in a timely manner [4]. 3.2.4 Data Overview - **Price Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 714.5 yuan/dry ton, down 0.56% from the previous day and up 1.42% from last week; the settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous contract is 99.51 US dollars/dry ton, down 0.49% from the previous day and up 3.95% from last week. Other related spot and futures prices also show different changes [4]. - **Base and Spread Data**: The base between McFadden powder (Qingdao Port) and the DCE iron ore main contract is 30.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous day and down 3 yuan from last week; the DCE iron ore futures 9 - 1 spread is 31.5 yuan/dry ton, up 3 yuan from the previous day and 6 yuan from last week. There are also various changes in different spreads [4]. - **Shipping and Inventory Data**: The Australian iron ore shipment is 1601.8 tons, up 0.19% from last week; the Brazilian iron ore shipment is 548.1 tons, down 16.42% from last week. The port inventory is 14238.71 tons, down 0.45% from last week [4]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of iron ore futures warehouse receipts is 3200 lots, unchanged from the previous day and last week [4]. 3.3 Industry News - According to Mysteel, some steel mills in Tangshan and Xingtai plan to reduce the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, effective at 0:00 on May 16, 2025 [6]. - According to the China Iron and Steel Association, in early May, the social inventory of five major varieties of steel in 21 cities was 850 tons, a decrease of 35 tons (4.0%) from the previous period. The inventory decline rate has slightly narrowed, an increase of 191 tons (29.0%) from the beginning of the year, and a decrease of 305 tons (26.4%) from the same period last year [6]. - According to Mysteel, an alloy factory in Ulanqab, Inner Mongolia, has recently reduced production of two 33000KVA ferrosilicon - manganese alloy submerged arc furnaces, expected to affect the daily output by about 400 tons; a large ferrosilicon - manganese enterprise in Chongqing has shut down two submerged arc furnaces since 12:00 on May 12, 2025, and the resumption time is to be determined, affecting the daily output by 400 tons [6]. - According to Brazilian customs data, in April 2025, the total export volume of Brazilian manganese ore was 66600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 152.99% and a year - on - year increase of 23.68%. Among them, the export volume of manganese ore to China was 63800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2418.44% and a year - on - year increase of 245.28% [6].