Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the metal manganese industry, projecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.30% from 2025 to 2029, with market size expected to grow from 2,491.23 billion to 3,302.17 billion RMB [4][47]. Core Insights - The metal manganese industry is characterized by strong resource dependence, clear production process differentiation, increasing environmental constraints, and a high correlation of downstream demand with the steel and new energy industries [4][10]. - The market size fluctuated from 1,688.74 billion RMB in 2019 to 1,722.36 billion RMB in 2024, with a CAGR of 0.40% during this period, influenced by factors such as the pandemic, supply-demand dynamics, and costs [4][47]. - The demand for manganese is driven by both traditional steel production and the emerging new energy sector, particularly in battery materials, creating a dual-driven growth pattern [10][53]. Industry Definition - Metal manganese is a transition metal with the symbol Mn and atomic number 25, primarily found in nature in the form of oxides and carbonates, requiring specific smelting processes for extraction [5]. Industry Classification - Metal manganese is categorized into industrial-grade manganese, electrolytic manganese, and manganese alloys, each with distinct purity levels and applications [6][7][8]. Industry Characteristics - The industry is heavily reliant on manganese ore resources, with significant concentration in countries like South Africa, Australia, and Brazil, leading to high bargaining power for large mining enterprises over downstream smelting companies [8][9]. - Environmental regulations are tightening, particularly affecting the electrolytic manganese sector, which has high water and energy consumption [9][10]. Development History - The industry has evolved through several phases, from its nascent stage (1890-1949) to a high-speed development phase post-2000, where environmental concerns became central to structural optimization [11][12][14][16]. Industry Chain Analysis - The manganese industry chain includes upstream mining and ore selection, midstream smelting, and downstream applications in steel, batteries, and chemicals [17][39]. - The upstream segment faces challenges due to high dependence on low-grade ores, with 93.6% of China's manganese reserves classified as low-grade [18][28]. Midstream Analysis - The midstream manganese alloy sector is currently experiencing significant losses, prompting calls for production cuts and industry-wide self-rescue actions [20][22][35]. - The production capacity in the silicon-manganese sector remains oversupplied, with ongoing pressure on profit margins [22][35]. Downstream Analysis - Manganese is a critical additive in steelmaking, with approximately 85%-90% of manganese resources directed towards the steel industry, while only 5%-10% is utilized in battery and chemical sectors [42][43]. - The demand for electrolytic manganese is expected to rise significantly, driven by stable steel demand and the expansion of green manufacturing sectors [44][46]. Market Size and Forecast - The market size for the metal manganese industry is projected to increase significantly, driven by energy transition and technological advancements, with a forecasted growth from 2,491.23 billion RMB in 2025 to 3,302.17 billion RMB by 2029 [4][47][53]. - The report highlights that the global demand for manganese from lithium-ion batteries is expected to rise, indicating a shift in market dynamics [53][54].

（来源：锰言硅语） 《铁合金在线》2026-1-5：今日硅锰期货开盘后震荡下行，主力合约跌下5900线，高位凸显不稳定性。 现货市场方面，工厂报价暂时与节前持平，北方集中在5600-5700元/吨区间，南方集中在5750-5800元/ 吨区间，节前南北5600-5650元/吨区间有部分成交，下游钢招定标在5850元/吨以上。河北代表钢厂尚未 进场采购，开盘首日下跌冲击下，贸易商信心有所动摇。今日期现报价北方产区提货05合约下浮350- 400区间，近期贸易零售成交多集中在5450-5500元/吨区间。 锰矿相对坚挺运行，天津港锰矿现货（元/吨度）：CML澳块报价44，成交43-44；South32澳块报价 42，成交41.5-42；南非块报价35.5-36，成交35-35.5；加蓬块报价43-43.5，成交42.5-43；钦州港South32 澳块报价41.5-42，成交41-41.5；CML澳块报价42-42.5，成交41.5-42；南非块报价35.5-36，成交35- 35.5；澳籽分指标报价35.5-37；加蓬块报价41.5-42。锰矿库存方面，截止12月31日天津港库存338.88万 吨，环比下降11 ...

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The overall market for silicon manganese is showing signs of slight recovery, with production rates and prices experiencing minor increases, while inventory levels remain a concern for manufacturers [1][4][5]. Group 1: Production and Operational Data - The operating rate of 187 independent silicon manganese enterprises nationwide was reported at 36.78%, an increase of 1.17% from the previous week [1]. - Daily average production reached 27,510 tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 620 tons [1]. - A silicon manganese alloy plant in Inner Mongolia has ignited a 66,000 KVA furnace, expected to produce approximately 400 tons per day in about two weeks [2]. Group 2: Market Trends and Inventory - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange recorded 23,277 manganese silicon futures warehouse receipts, a decrease of 187 from the previous trading day, with a total decline of 374 receipts over the past week, representing a 1.58% drop [2]. - Over the past month, manganese silicon futures warehouse receipts have increased by 2,088, marking a growth of 9.85% [2]. - The current market for silicon manganese is characterized by a slight upward trend in spot prices, with manufacturers showing a strong cost support but still facing inventory pressure [4]. Group 3: Price Dynamics and Demand - The manganese ore market is experiencing a structural inventory issue, leading to a fragile balance, while the demand for lower-cost semi-carbonate ore is expected to rise due to changes in the smelting process [5]. - Seasonal declines in pig iron production are noted, alongside a slight decrease in weekly silicon manganese output and inventory [5]. - The recommendation for market participants is to consider buying on dips, as the market shows potential for recovery [5].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 锰硅周报12.08-12.12 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每周观点 本周观点： 从成本端来看，硅锰合金成本支撑力度依旧较强。虽焦炭价格小幅回落，但核心原料锰矿价格保持坚挺，其中高度氧 化矿涨幅尤为显著，成本端坚挺格局有效托底合金价格。 从供应端来看，期货层面，硅锰盘面近期仍维持震荡走 势，多呈现"开盘拉涨，尾盘回落"特点，但上行空间有限。现货层面，工厂零售报价意愿较低，多捂货不出，等待 盘面冲高后再出货，由此厂家库存压力有所抬升。北方地区合金厂近期新增硅锰产能稳定运行，后续将缓慢出铁，届 时供应压力进一步加大；南方地区等地受枯水期电价上涨带来的成本抬升影响，多数厂家选择避峰减产，减产企业较 多。其余地区合金厂开工维持低位，传统生产淡季出现减产情况。 从需求端来看，12月河 ...

Industry Overview - The domestic electrolytic manganese market has seen a significant price surge, with prices ranging from 15,600 to 15,800 CNY/ton, an increase of 300 CNY from the previous trading day [1] - Retail spot prices are reported between 15,800 and 16,000 CNY/ton, with some traders quoting prices above 16,000 CNY/ton, marking a cumulative increase of 1,800 CNY/ton over the past month [1] - The recent bidding prices for spherical electrolytic manganese and low-carbon metal manganese spheres have reached 16,600 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2,102 to 2,420 CNY/ton, indicating strong market sentiment [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current market is characterized by a significant reduction in the circulation of electrolytic manganese, leading to a supply-demand imbalance where demand exceeds supply [1] - Factors contributing to this situation include rising raw material costs, supply contraction, seasonal demand increases, and rigid procurement by steel mills [1] - The industry is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance in the short term, with prices likely to continue their upward trend due to positive market sentiment and low inventory levels [1] Company Insights - Western Gold has a complete industrial chain involving manganese mining, electrolytic manganese, and silicon-manganese alloy production, utilizing its own manganese ore as the primary raw material for electrolytic manganese production [2] - The company plans to extract 450,000 tons of manganese ore and produce 80,000 tons of electrolytic manganese by 2025 [2] - Three Gorges Water Conservancy operates an electrolytic manganese processing plant with a designed capacity of approximately 80,000 tons per year, utilizing manganese ore from its Li Jia Wan manganese mine for its electrolytic manganese products [2]

Market Overview - As of November 6, the number of manganese silicon futures warehouse receipts recorded 12,758, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. However, there was a cumulative increase of 4,658 receipts over the past week, representing a growth rate of 57.51%. In contrast, there was a cumulative decrease of 42,103 receipts over the past month, indicating a decline of 76.74% [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - In the Yunnan production area, the official entry into the dry season has led to a significant increase in electricity costs from 0.37 yuan/kWh during the wet season to 0.5 yuan/kWh. Additionally, six silicon manganese thermal furnaces have been shut down for maintenance since October 31, while three furnaces are operating at reduced capacity, collectively affecting daily output by 880 tons [1]. - According to recent data, the latest bidding price for silicon manganese alloy from a steel mill in East China is 5,798 yuan/ton, including tax and discounts [2]. Institutional Insights - According to Everbright Futures, despite a reduction in production in the main manganese silicon production areas last week, overall output remains relatively stable. The demand from sample steel mills is still at a relatively low level, with limited willingness to sell at low prices. The cost side remains firm, with a slight decrease in manganese ore shipments, and miners are showing a strong willingness to maintain prices. Inventory pressure is evident, with 63 sample enterprises accumulating stock exceeding 300,000 tons, reaching a peak not seen since April 2024. Overall, market sentiment has been somewhat boosted, but the fundamental driving force remains limited, necessitating ongoing attention to market sentiment changes, with expectations of a predominantly volatile market in the short term [3]. - Guoxin Futures notes that the manganese silicon industry chain is characterized by overall overcapacity and the introduction of new production capacity, alongside relatively loose manganese ore supply and low steel demand, leading to a predominantly weak supply-demand dynamic. However, with manganese silicon prices at low levels and production profits being poor, there is limited room for further market decline. The recent rise in coal prices suggests a potential for a moderate bullish outlook on manganese silicon [4].

2025 年第三季度经营数据公告 证券代码：601069 证券简称：西部黄金 公告编号：2025-074 西部黄金股份有限公司 公司报告期内黄金产品销售量较上年同期增加，外购合质金生产的标准金 11.44 吨，销 售 11.42 吨。锰矿石销售量 34.67 万吨，均销售至科邦锰业。 三、2025 年第三季度（1-9 月）矿石原材料的成本情况 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 根据上海证券交易所《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 3 号——行 业信息披露》《关于做好主板上市公司 2025 年第三季度报告披露工作的重要提 醒》要求，现将西部黄金股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）2025 年第三季度 （1-9 月）主要有色金属品种产销量及盈利情况披露如下（财务数据未经审计）： 一、2025 年第三季度（1-9 月）主营业务分行业、分产品、分地区、分销售模式情况 单位：元 币种：人民币 | | | | 主营业务分行业情况 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Core Insights - The "2025 Ningxia Top 100 Private Enterprises" list has been released, with an entry threshold of 584 million yuan, down from 599.8 million yuan last year. The total revenue of the listed companies reached 351.379 billion yuan, with 51 companies showing growth, adding 37.155 billion yuan [1][12] - The total assets of the top 100 companies amounted to 575.501 billion yuan, with 53 companies increasing their assets by 51.261 billion yuan. The total profit reached 50.680 billion yuan [1][12] - The top 100 private enterprises contributed a total tax revenue of 13.592 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%, accounting for 37.87% of the total tax revenue in the region [1][12] Industry Overview - The industrial structure of the top 100 includes 1 company from the primary industry, 81 from the secondary industry, and 18 from the tertiary industry. The manufacturing sector dominates with 73 companies, followed by real estate with 11, and construction, wholesale and retail, and energy supply with 4 each [3] - The regional distribution shows that Yinchuan has 40 companies on the list with a total revenue of 155.425 billion yuan, leading the rankings. Shizuishan has 22 companies, Wuzhong has 19, and other regions follow [3] Company Highlights - Baofeng Group ranks first with a revenue of 69.199 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%. It is involved in energy chemistry, new energy, and new storage industries. The company’s project in Inner Mongolia is the largest single-plant ethylene project globally [12] - Ningxia Jianlong, established in 2012, ranks third with a steel production capacity of 3.5 million tons and is part of a larger group with a total crude steel capacity of 43 million tons [5] - Tianyuan Manganese Group, the second-largest, achieved a revenue of 67.367 billion yuan, with a production capacity of 800,000 tons of electrolytic manganese, accounting for 48% of the national output [7]

Market Review - The main contract for ferrosilicon closed flat at 5768 CNY/ton, while the spot price in Tianjin was 5670 CNY/ton, down by 30 CNY/ton [1] Fundamental Summary - The operating rate of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises nationwide was 43.19%, a decrease of 0.99% from the previous week; the average daily output was 29,175 tons, down by 315 tons, marking an 8-week low [2] - On October 9, a group tendered silicomanganese alloy pricing: Hubei at 5790 CNY/ton for 400 tons; Jiangsu at 5760 CNY/ton for 500 tons; Guangdong Heyuan at 5860 CNY/ton for 800 tons, all cash inclusive of tax to the factory [2] Institutional Perspectives - Zhonghui Futures noted a slight decrease in supply from production areas, but absolute values remain high; inventory continues to increase, and the new round of steel tenders has not fully commenced, leading to a cautious industry outlook. Overall, while cost support for prices is strong, upward drivers remain limited, suggesting a potential for price fluctuations after a rapid release of short-term bearish sentiment, recommending short positions to exit [4] - Southwest Futures indicated that recent ferroalloy production remains high, with weak demand recovery, likely continuing the oversupply situation. Current low costs limit downward space, with support in low ranges gradually strengthening; low manganese ore inventory may lead to supply reduction expectations causing disturbances, and under low cost conditions, opportunities for long positions may arise if the spot market falls into a loss zone [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Glass: Neutral (expected to trade in a range) [3] - Soda Ash: Neutral (expected to trade in a range) [3] - Silicomanganese: Neutral (expected to trade in a range) [5] - Ferrosilicon: Neutral (expected to trade in a range) [5] 2. Core Views - **Glass & Soda Ash**: The trading sentiment is high, and prices are expected to be volatile. Glass consumption is affected by speculative demand and downstream restocking, while soda ash faces supply - demand contradictions, especially with the ignition of Yuanxing's Phase II project [1][2]. - **Silicomanganese & Ferrosilicon**: Market sentiment has improved, and alloys are expected to trade in a wide range. The supply - demand situation for both is relatively loose, and prices are likely to follow the sector's fluctuations [4]. 3. Market Analysis Glass - **Futures**: The glass futures on the previous day oscillated upward, with the main 2601 contract rising 3.08%, and near - month contracts rising more than far - month contracts [1]. - **Spot**: Spot trading was mainly for pre - holiday restocking. With the price increase, glass production and sales improved month - on - month. This week, the operating rate of float glass enterprises was 76.01%, and the manufacturer's inventory was 59.355 million heavy cases, a month - on - month decrease of 2.55% [1]. - **Supply - Demand Logic**: Glass supply is generally stable. Consumption is affected by speculative demand and downstream restocking, with limited overall inventory changes. The large premium on the futures market stimulates spot - futures purchases. The fundamentals still suppress prices, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and peak - season demand [1]. Soda Ash - **Futures**: The soda ash futures on the previous day oscillated upward, with the main 2601 contract rising 1.15%, and all contracts rising to varying degrees [1]. - **Spot**: Spot trading was mainly for pre - holiday rigid - demand restocking. This week, domestic soda ash production was 776,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.19%; inventory was 1.6515 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.61% [1]. - **Supply - Demand Logic**: Supply - demand contradictions in soda ash still exist. With the ignition of Yuanxing's Phase II project, future supply pressure will increase. Attention should be paid to whether speculative demand weakens, which may intensify the supply - demand contradiction. The current premium on the futures market suppresses prices, and attention should be paid to new capacity production progress and inventory changes [2]. Silicomanganese - **Futures**: The main contract of silicomanganese futures closed at 5,938 yuan/ton on the previous day, up 22 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. - **Spot**: The silicomanganese spot market performed averagely. The price in the northern market was 5,650 - 5,700 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5,680 - 5,730 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply - Demand Logic**: This week, silicomanganese production decreased month - on - month, while hot metal production increased slightly. Downstream demand for silicomanganese still has resilience, and the inventory of silicomanganese alloy enterprises has increased. In the long term, supply - demand is relatively loose, and prices are expected to follow the sector's fluctuations. Attention should be paid to regional policies and electricity price changes [4]. Ferrosilicon - **Futures**: The main contract of ferrosilicon futures closed at 5,786 yuan/ton on the previous day, up 44 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. - **Spot**: The ferrosilicon spot market sentiment was average, and the trading atmosphere needed to be strengthened. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas was 5,300 - 5,400 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5,900 - 6,200 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply - Demand Logic**: This week, ferrosilicon production remained flat, demand declined, and factory inventory decreased month - on - month. The supply - demand in the ferrosilicon industry is still relatively loose. Without industrial policies, profits are still suppressed. Prices are expected to follow the sector's fluctuations, and attention should be paid to regional policies and electricity price changes [4]. 4. Strategies - **Glass**: Expect price oscillations [3] - **Soda Ash**: Expect price oscillations [3] - **Silicomanganese**: Expect price oscillations [5] - **Ferrosilicon**: Expect price oscillations [5] - **Inter - period Spread**: No strategy [3] - **Inter - commodity Spread**: No strategy [3]