【冠通期货研究报告】 PP日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2025年11月26日 【行情分析】 PP下游开工率环比上涨0.29个百分点至53.57%，处于历年同期偏低水平。但其中拉丝主力下游塑 编开工率持平于44.24%，塑编订单环比略有减少，略低于去年同期。11月26日，大港石化单线等检修 装置重启开车，PP企业开工率上涨至83%左右，处于中性偏低水平，标品拉丝生产比例维持在31%左 右。11月石化去库放缓，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性偏高水平。成本端，俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克 表示，美国及西方最新实施的制裁并未对俄罗斯的石油产量造成影响，另外特朗普政府极力促成俄 乌停火，泽连斯基表明对和谈持开放态度，原油价格下跌。供应上，新增产能40万吨/年的中石油广 西石化10月中旬投产，近期检修装置略有减少。下游进入旺季尾声，塑编等订单跟进持续性有限， 市场缺乏大规模集中采购，对行情提振有限，贸易商普遍让利以刺激成交。供给过剩，加上成本支 撑减弱，预计PP偏弱震荡。 【期现行情】 期货方面： PP2601合约减仓震荡下行，最低价6258元/吨，最高价6332元/吨，最终收盘于6265元/吨， 在20日均线下方，跌幅1.42%。持 ...

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum market is expected to experience upward price trends in the medium to long term due to strong demand and rigid supply, despite potential short-term price declines due to seasonal pressures in the consumption off-season [1][5]. Group 1: Macro Environment - The macroeconomic outlook has improved, with the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in September and October, boosting sentiment in the non-ferrous metals market [1]. - The easing of trade tensions between China and the U.S. has alleviated concerns regarding aluminum product trade barriers, contributing to a more optimistic macro environment [1]. - Political uncertainties in the U.S. have decreased, and economic data has not been as pessimistic as expected, further strengthening the positive macro outlook [1]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Recent weather conditions in Guinea and reduced shipments from Australia have led to a significant decline in bauxite inventory at ports, but shipments are expected to return to previous levels after the rainy season [2]. - Domestic aluminum oxide production remains stable due to sufficient raw material inventory, with a capacity utilization rate of 84.05% as of October, despite a slight decline [2]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is nearly fully utilized at 97.46%, with limited room for future capacity growth [3]. - Global electrolytic aluminum production is estimated at 72 million tons for 2024, with China contributing about 60%, while overseas production faces constraints from energy costs and infrastructure issues [3]. Group 3: Demand Trends - Overall consumption of aluminum shows resilience, although the average operating rate for aluminum profiles is significantly lower than in previous years [4]. - Demand in traditional construction sectors is weak, but strong demand in sectors such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and ultra-high voltage infrastructure supports consumption resilience [5]. Group 4: Price Outlook - The global aluminum market is characterized by a tight supply-demand balance, heavily reliant on China's nearly full production capacity [5]. - Short-term price pressures may arise as the market enters the traditional consumption off-season, following a recent surge in prices above 22,000 yuan/ton [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For nickel, due to high inventory and oversupply, the nickel price is expected to remain in low - level fluctuations, but recent mining disruptions in Indonesia and the Philippines should be monitored for potential price rebounds [4] - For stainless steel, with the end of the consumption peak season, lower - than - expected demand growth, and weakening cost support, the stainless - steel price is expected to stay in low - level oscillations [5] Group 3: Nickel Market Analysis Futures - On November 10, 2025, the main contract 2512 of Shanghai nickel opened at 119,670 yuan/ton and closed at 119,680 yuan/ton, a 0.01% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 82,864 (-9,186) lots, and the open interest was 117,784 (-4,095) lots [1] - The main contract of Shanghai nickel showed a low - opening and high - walking oscillatory repair pattern. Affected by macro - sentiment and the metal sector, it rebounded during the day session and slightly closed up. The high - level oscillation of the US dollar index still suppresses nickel prices. The domestic commodity sector rose collectively, and Shanghai nickel rebounded accordingly [2] Nickel Ore - The nickel - ore market trading atmosphere was calm, and prices remained stable. There was strong market wait - and - see sentiment, and there was a supply - demand price gap. Factory procurement enthusiasm was low [2] - In the Philippines, the Surigao mining area's shipping efficiency was delayed due to continuous rainfall, while the northern mining area had stable local supply. Indonesian November (Phase II) domestic trade benchmark prices are expected to be lowered by 0.12 - 0.2 dollars/wet ton, with a current mainstream premium of +26 [2] - Due to the rainy season and typhoons, shipping in the southern Surigao area of the Philippines has stopped, and nickel - ore exports are expected to sharply decline from November to December [2] Spot - Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 123,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. Spot trading was average, and the spot premium of each brand did not change [3] - The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 600 yuan/ton to 3,600 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained at 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton [3] - The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 32,533 (-101) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 253,404 (+300) tons [3] Group 4: Nickel Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations - No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading are provided [4] Group 5: Stainless Steel Market Analysis Futures - On November 10, 2025, the main contract 2512 of stainless steel opened at 12,545 yuan/ton and closed at 12,605 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 100,514 (+26,181) lots, and the open interest was 46,429 (-4,171) lots [4] - The main contract of stainless steel showed an oscillatory and slightly stronger trend. It rebounded in the afternoon driven by the rise of the black - metal sector [4] Spot - Affected by the futures' stop - falling and rebound, spot inquiries increased, but actual trading activity was still low, and quotes were basically flat [5] - The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,850 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 12,850 (+0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 305 - 605 yuan/ton [5] - The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 1.50 yuan/nickel point to 914.5 yuan/nickel point [5] Group 6: Stainless Steel Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral - No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading are provided [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For silicon manganese, the cost support is expected to weaken, and the industrial fundamentals have improved, but due to the overall decline in the prices of the black series, the market bearish sentiment remains. The medium - and short - term market may still be in the process of finding or establishing a bottom, with prices remaining weak. The main contract reference range is [5250, 5800] [3]. - For silicon iron, under the background of industrial production cuts, the supply - demand contradiction has eased. The current supply has dropped to the lowest level in the same period, while the demand faces the risk of seasonal decline, and the cost support is still insufficient. The market may continue to find a bottom, and prices are expected to remain weak. The main contract reference range is [5150, 5500] [45]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Silicon Manganese Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: In May, production and operating rates declined significantly, with factories in both northern and southern regions undergoing maintenance. Some factories have resumed production slightly after maintenance. The daily output in Inner Mongolia is 13,400 tons, still at a relatively high level in the same period. Yunnan factories also have plans to resume production in June. The estimated total national silicon manganese production in May is about 740,000 tons [3]. - Demand: In May, hot metal production declined month - on - month and may have peaked, but it is still at a relatively high level in the same period, providing short - term rigid support for silicon manganese demand. In terms of steel procurement, the mainstream steel mills' procurement price of silicon manganese alloy in May was 5,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to April, and the procurement quantity was 11,600 tons, an increase of 200 tons compared to April. Most steel mills' tender prices decreased, with strong price - pressing sentiment. Recent news of crude steel production restrictions has disturbed the market [3]. Manganese Ore Overview - The news of South Africa's export restrictions briefly disturbed the market, but its impact has gradually dissipated. The manganese ore market remains weak, with low trading volume, and factories mainly replenish stocks on demand. In May, shipping and arrival volumes increased significantly, while the port clearance volume declined from a high level. South32 has resumed shipping, but the overall shipping volume is low. It is expected that port inventories will slowly recover at a low level [3]. Cost and Profit - The entire industry's loss has intensified, and the expectation of production cuts remains. However, the room for further production cuts in the southern region is limited, and attention should be paid to the operating conditions in low - cost regions. The second - round price cut of coke has been implemented, and there is still an expectation of further price cuts. Electricity prices in both northern and southern regions have decreased to varying degrees, and there is still an expectation of an electricity price cut in Ningxia in June [3]. Market Outlook - Overall, the cost support for silicon manganese is expected to weaken. Although the industrial fundamentals have improved, the market bearish sentiment remains due to the overall decline in the prices of the black series. The medium - and short - term market may still be in the process of finding or establishing a bottom, with prices remaining weak. The upward drive depends on "deep production cuts" in the industry or external environmental disturbances [3]. Silicon Iron Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: In May, production and operating rates declined significantly. Since mid - April, more factories in production areas have undergone maintenance, and the operating rates in multiple production areas have dropped to the lowest level in the same period. The estimated total national production in May is 410,000 - 420,000 tons [44]. - Demand: In the short term, steel mills' profits still support the high - level hot metal production, and the demand for silicon iron remains resilient. The progress of steel procurement in May was slow, with most steel mills' tender prices decreasing to varying degrees, and strong price - pressing sentiment. A leading steel mill's procurement price of silicon iron alloy in May was 5,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton compared to April, and the procurement quantity was 2,130 tons, an increase of 430 tons compared to April. Non - steel demand: The downstream magnesium metal market remains weak, with low trading volume, and cannot strongly support silicon iron. In terms of exports, the export volume of silicon iron increased month - on - month in April, but the cumulative export volume from January to April decreased significantly compared to the same period last year. Affected by the increase in Southeast Asian orders, the export volume in May is expected to increase slightly month - on - month but still be lower than the level of the same period last year [44]. Cost and Profit - The semi - coke market remains weakly stable. The price of lump coal at the raw material end continues to be weak, and cannot strongly support the semi - coke price. The maintenance season in May is coming to an end, and factories may gradually resume production. The price of small materials in Shaanxi decreased by 40 yuan/ton this month. There is still an expectation of an electricity price cut in Ningxia, and attention should be paid to the electricity price changes in each production area [44]. Market Outlook - Under the background of industrial production cuts, the supply - demand contradiction has eased. The current supply has dropped to the lowest level in the same period, while the demand faces the risk of seasonal decline, and the cost support is still insufficient. The market may continue to find a bottom, and prices are expected to remain weak [45].

（一）主要产品的价格变动情况 证券代码：600328 证券简称：中盐化工 公告编号：（临）2025-034 中盐内蒙古化工股份有限公司 2025 年第一季度主要经营数据的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 中盐内蒙古化工股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）根据上海证 券交易所《上市公司行业信息披露指引第七号-医药》《上市公司行 业信息披露指引第十八号-化工》及《关于做好上市公司 2025 年第一 季度报告披露工作的通知》要求，现将公司 2025 年第一季度主要经 营数据披露如下： | 主要行业 | 主要产品 | 2025 年第 | 2025 年第 | 营业收入（万 元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 一季度产量 | 一季度销量 | | | 精细化工行业 | 金属钠、氯酸钠 （万吨） | 3.40 | 3.29 | 21,343.68 | | 基础化工行业 | 纯碱（万吨） | 104.39 | 95.02 | 121,025.87 | | | 聚氯乙烯树脂 ...