Group 1: Electric Equipment and New Energy - The German government announced a €3 billion subsidy for families purchasing electric vehicles, providing up to €6,000 per household, aimed at boosting the electric vehicle industry and supporting lithium battery demand [2] - The report recommends companies in the lithium battery supply chain, including CATL, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and others, due to expected performance growth driven by increased lithium battery demand [2] Group 2: Automotive Industry - Key changes in the automotive industry include rising costs from storage chips and copper, Bosch's performance challenges reflecting European supply chain transitions, and Canada's reduction of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles to 6.1%, creating opportunities for Chinese automakers in North America [3] - The report suggests focusing on automakers with comprehensive industry chain advantages and global expansion strategies [3] Group 3: Basic Chemicals - The demand for yellow phosphorus is expected to improve due to growth in downstream phosphoric acid and new energy materials, with high sulfur prices enhancing the competitiveness of thermal phosphoric acid [4] - Domestic production capacity for yellow phosphorus is strictly controlled, leading to a favorable supply-demand dynamic that may benefit integrated companies in the phosphorus industry [4] Group 4: Consumer Sector - In December, China's retail sales increased by 0.9% year-on-year to CNY 4.5 trillion, with a focus on durable goods like automobiles and home appliances [6] - The report highlights structural opportunities in high-growth sectors, recommending investments in domestic brands, technology consumption, and high-dividend stocks [6] Group 5: Fixed Income - The ABS market is expected to recover in 2026, with a shift in supply structure and increased activity in consumer finance and real estate ABS [7] - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in financing demand, although total ABS issuance may not see significant growth [7] Group 6: Utilities - China's electricity prices have been declining, while the U.S. faces electricity shortages, leading to a divergence in electricity stock valuations between the two countries [8] - The report recommends undervalued power operators, as stable coal prices could support electricity prices and valuations in the sector [8] Group 7: Key Companies - TCL Electronics announced a strategic partnership with Sony to enhance its global leadership in home entertainment, projecting a 45%-60% increase in adjusted net profit for 2025 [10] - Yanjing Beer expects a 50%-65% increase in net profit for 2025, driven by operational improvements and market strategies [11] - Sony's strategic partnership with TCL aims to streamline its home entertainment business, focusing on high-growth areas and enhancing operational efficiency [12] - Xingyu Co. is advancing its Micro-LED technology through a strategic partnership, aiming to accelerate the commercialization of this technology [13] - China Duty Free Group plans to acquire DFS assets to strengthen its position in the Hong Kong and Macau markets, enhancing its competitive edge [15]

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing positive development in the lithium battery sector, which has become a significant driver of business growth [1] Industry Summary - The lithium battery industry is witnessing rapid revenue growth, indicating a robust market environment [1] - There is an increasing demand for enhanced detection precision, efficiency, and reliability within the industry [1] Company Summary - The company is increasing its investment in research and development for lithium battery testing technology and system layout [1] - The company has established close partnerships with several leading terminal manufacturers [1] - Future growth will be supported by solid technical accumulation and deep customer collaboration, focusing on product iteration and quality improvement [1] - The company aims to maintain technological leadership and align with industry development trends to support sustained business growth [1]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 碳酸锂 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 碳酸锂 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 20 日 碳酸锂日报 专业研究·创造价值 碳酸锂强势运行 摘要 【期货市场】主力合约 LC2605.GFE 收盘价 160500 元/吨，较前日 上涨 13240 元/吨，近 10 个交易日整体呈现上升走势。 【现货市场】碳酸锂现货价格为 152540 元/吨，较前日上涨 1.07%，近 10 个交易日整体呈现上升走势。 【基差分析】当前基差为-2920 点，负基差（现货贴水），较前日 走弱 6580 点，近 10 个交易日基差整体走强。 专业研究·创造价值 2 / ...

Market Overview - On January 20, the spot settlement price for battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) was 153,500 CNY/ton, an increase of 3,000 CNY from the previous working day, with increased spot transactions [1] - The settlement price for battery-grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% coarse particles) was 142,000 CNY/ton, up 4,000 CNY from the previous working day [1] - In the futures market, due to rumors of potential production halts at some mines in Jiangxi, lithium carbonate futures surged, with the main contract closing at 160,500 CNY/ton, an increase of 13,240 CNY from the previous working day, and an increase in open interest [1] Price Trends - The ICC lithium battery settlement prices on January 19 and January 20 showed the following changes: - Lithium concentrate remained at 2,030 CNY/ton - Battery-grade lithium carbonate increased from 15.05 to 15.35 CNY/kg - Battery-grade lithium hydroxide increased from 13.8 to 14.2 CNY/kg - Lithium iron phosphate (power type) increased from 5.23 to 5.28 CNY/kg - Ternary materials remained at 19.7 CNY/kg - Square power battery cells remained at 0.335 CNY/Wh [2] Industry Insights - Current average price levels for lithium iron phosphate battery cells suggest that the terminal (mainly second-tier companies) can bear lithium carbonate prices around 156,000 CNY [4] - The lithium market is experiencing significant fluctuations primarily due to rumors of production halts in Jiangxi, although production remains normal for lithium salt manufacturers in the region [6] - The overall fundamentals of the lithium battery market remain strong, with even cost-sensitive sectors like energy storage able to accept current lithium prices, indicating a continuation of wide fluctuations in the short term [6] Import and Export Data - In December, China imported 23,900 tons of lithium carbonate, a month-on-month increase of 9%, with a cumulative import forecast of 243,000 tons for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.4% [9] - In December, the shipment volume of lithium concentrate from the Hedland port in Australia was 168,500 tons, an increase of 8.99% from November, all shipped to China [9]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In early 2026, the market sentiment has significantly warmed up, and the market has risen strongly. However, the risk - return ratio of chasing the rising market may not be high. Thematic investment remains popular, and funds from previously over - heated themes are expected to shift to other thematic sectors [1][7]. - The technology main line is still the market consensus. Funds are likely to flow into sectors such as semiconductor computing power and robotics within the technology sector, while lithium battery, non - ferrous metals, power grid, chemical, and innovative drugs are important supplementary sectors for the market [2][22]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Which theme ETFs are expected to be the direction of capital return? - **Market situation**: In early 2026, the market has risen strongly, with commercial aerospace, AI applications, and non - ferrous metals becoming the focus. But there are signs of the market correcting irrational behaviors under regulatory guidance, and the risk - return ratio of chasing the rising market may be low. Thematic investment is still very popular. As of January 19, 2026, the cumulative net capital inflow of thematic index ETFs in the past five days exceeded 42.254 billion yuan, while industry index ETFs only had a net inflow of 9.763 billion yuan, and broad - based index ETFs showed a large net outflow [1][7]. - **Analysis from the perspective of rise and valuation**: Technological industries generally have high rises, while traditional cyclical industries such as liquor, coal, and breeding have relatively low rises. New energy sectors like lithium battery, photovoltaic, and new - energy vehicles, as well as the chemical industry, have risen but still have room to reach previous highs. From the valuation dimension, the current valuations of the game, intelligent driving, lithium battery, and breeding sectors are low [8]. - **Analysis using the quadrant chart**: - **First quadrant (high rise and high congestion)**: Mainly includes commercial aerospace, communication, AI, and non - ferrous metals. Non - ferrous metals (such as copper) and AI have relatively moderate congestion, and relevant sectors are still worthy of attention [2][17]. - **Second quadrant (high rise and low congestion)**: There are relatively few relevant industries, mainly semiconductor equipment (including related industrial chains such as storage) and lithium battery. The sector sentiment is not over - heated, and the industrial supply - demand pattern is optimized, so they are still worthy of attention [2][17]. - **Third quadrant (low rise and low congestion)**: Sectors such as innovative drugs, chemicals, and games have both industrial logic and market capacity, with large potential for a supplementary rise. For example, since 2026, the chemical ETF has re - entered the state of net inflow [2][17]. - **Fourth quadrant (low rise and high congestion)**: Includes robotics, power grid equipment, consumer electronics, and software. Power grid equipment has received renewed attention due to the unexpected increase in the 14th Five - Year Plan expenditure, and robotics has also been favored by the market because Tesla's third - generation robot has entered the scheme confirmation stage [2][21]. - **Specific ETF selection**: For ETFs tracking the same index, products with larger scale, relatively lower fees, and smaller tracking errors are selected. Specific ETF lists are provided in the report [22].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the creation and significance of a comprehensive lithium battery industry chain distribution map, which has gained high acclaim in the industry since its launch in 2022, highlighting its unique value and far-reaching impact [1]. Group 1: Overview of the Lithium Battery Industry Chain Distribution Map - The distribution map meticulously outlines the entire ecosystem of the global lithium battery industry, covering raw materials, four main materials, battery manufacturing, and end applications, involving key enterprises in various sectors [2]. - Key raw materials include lithium carbonate, lithium iron phosphate, lithium hexafluorophosphate, lithium iron, lithium cobalt oxide, lithium manganese oxide, lithium hydroxide, and basic chemical raw materials like graphite and electrolyte solvents [2]. - The map also focuses on companies involved in the research, production, and supply of battery anode and cathode materials, including both traditional and cutting-edge materials [2]. Group 2: Components and Applications - It includes manufacturers of critical components such as separators and electrolytes, which ensure the safe and efficient operation of batteries [3]. - The battery manufacturing section encompasses various types of lithium-ion batteries, including cylindrical, prismatic, and pouch cells, covering design, production, and assembly [4]. - The map addresses battery recycling and reuse, featuring a whitelist of companies, and highlights end applications in electric vehicles, energy storage systems, consumer electronics, and lightweight power sectors, showcasing the broad application prospects of lithium battery technology [5]. Group 3: Geographic Coverage - The distribution map covers four major lithium battery industry clusters: China, North America, Europe, and Southeast Asia, including Japan and South Korea [6]. Group 4: Target Audience and Collaboration - The target investors include global venture capital funds, private equity funds, and industrial investment funds, particularly those focused on new energy and new materials [8]. - Industry enterprises are invited to join the ecosystem, including raw material suppliers, material manufacturers, battery producers, electric vehicle manufacturers, and energy storage solution providers [8]. - Research institutions and universities in fields such as new energy, materials science, and electrochemistry are encouraged to participate in advancing technological innovation and talent development [8]. - Collaboration with local governments and industry associations is emphasized to promote the implementation of lithium battery industry policies and optimize the development environment [8]. Group 5: Invitation for Cooperation - The article extends a sincere invitation for participation in exploring deep cooperation opportunities within the lithium battery industry chain [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yesterday, the lithium carbonate futures contract 2605 dropped 3.83% to 147,260 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 7,000 yuan/ton to 151,000 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate fell 7,000 yuan/ton to 147,500 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) declined 5,000 yuan/ton to 144,000 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 240 tons to 27,698 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly output increased by 115 tons to 22,535 tons. In January 2026, the lithium carbonate production is expected to decline 1.2% month - on - month to 97,970 tons. On the demand side, in January 2026, the production of ternary materials is expected to drop 5% month - on - month to 78,180 tons; the production of lithium iron phosphate is expected to fall 10% month - on - month to 363,400 tons; the production of ternary power batteries is expected to decrease 6.15% month - on - month to 28.7 GWh, the production of lithium iron power batteries is expected to decline 9.77% month - on - month to 90.01 GWh, and the production of lithium iron energy - storage batteries is expected to increase 0.99% month - on - month to 63.15 GWh. On the inventory side, the weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 337 tons to 109,942 tons [3]. - Due to capital disturbances, the lithium carbonate price has significantly corrected recently. If the basis fails to remain strong, it may lead to a spiral decline in spot and futures prices. In the absence of a clear negative feedback in demand, the main strategy is to go long on dips, while being vigilant about increased market volatility and position disturbances, and pay attention to supply - side disturbances (overseas and in Jiangxi) and right - hand opportunities [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract increased by 1,280 yuan/ton to 163,220 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the continuous contract decreased by 4,440 yuan/ton to 161,900 yuan/ton. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) dropped by 40 US dollars/ton to 2,060 US dollars/ton, and the prices of various types of lithium mica and lithium - phosphate - aluminum ore also declined [5]. - The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 4,000 yuan/ton to 159,000 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate fell by 4,000 yuan/ton to 155,500 yuan/ton. The prices of different types of lithium hydroxide and lithium hexafluorophosphate also showed varying degrees of decline [5]. - The prices of some ternary precursors increased, while the prices of some ternary materials remained unchanged. The prices of different types of lithium iron phosphate decreased, and the price of manganese - acid lithium (power type) increased by 500 yuan/ton [5]. - The prices of some types of battery cells and batteries increased slightly, while others remained unchanged [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, different types of lithium mica, and lithium - phosphate - aluminum ore from 2024 to 2026 [6][9]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts display the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2026 [12][14][17]. - **Price Spreads**: Charts present the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other related price spreads from 2024 to 2026 [19][20][21]. - **Precursors & Cathode Materials**: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese - acid lithium, and cobalt - acid lithium from 2024 to 2026 [25][27][30]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary battery cells, square lithium iron phosphate battery cells, cobalt - acid lithium battery cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2026 [32][36]. - **Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from May 2025 to January 2026 [38][40]. - **Production Costs**: The chart presents the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2026 [43][44].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the company's lithium mining business is projected to account for approximately 50% of its revenue by 2026, based on current market prices and production estimates [2] - The company has a lithium concentrate production capacity of 180,000 tons per year and a lithium salt production capacity of 45,000 tons per year, with revenues derived from both lithium concentrate and lithium salt sales [2] - The company adheres to accounting standards and does not recognize prior period costs in the current period, addressing investor concerns about discrepancies between net profit margin and gross profit margin for the lithium business [2]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of export VAT rebates for photovoltaic and lithium battery products starting April 1, 2026, significantly increasing export costs and putting pressure on profits, with companies expected to rush to declare exports before the deadline [1] - China's photovoltaic industry holds 80%-90% of global capacity and has been the world's largest in production and installation for over a decade, but faces structural contradictions due to excessive capital inflow and a large number of small enterprises, leading to disordered capacity expansion [1] - The adjustment of the export tax rebate policy is seen as a targeted measure to reduce reliance on subsidies, encouraging technological innovation and shifting the industry from low-price competition to value competition [2] Group 2 - The policy is expected to benefit leading companies by promoting industry concentration and eliminating low-price competition, with companies that have strong technology and cost control likely to gain in the medium to long term [3] - Some companies are signaling a cautious approach, with Tianqi Materials planning to suspend production of a lithium hexafluorophosphate line and adjust investment projects, indicating a shift from large-scale expansion [3] - The introduction of the export tax rebate policy is anticipated to intensify the competition between upstream and downstream sectors, potentially driving up material prices, as most major materials have shown significant price increases since December [3]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry: Lithium Battery - Solid-state batteries are gaining traction, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology placing them as a key focus in the "14th Five-Year Plan" for smart connected new energy vehicles [1] - Recommended companies to watch include: - Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd. - Hailiang Co., Ltd. - Yunnan Tin Company Limited - Xian Dai Intelligent - Rongqi Technology - Naconor [5] Industry: Energy Storage - Attention is drawn to the progress of national capacity electricity price subsidies [2] - Companies to focus on include: - Sungrow Power Supply Co., Ltd. - Canadian Solar Inc. - Haibo Technology - Tongrun Equipment [6] - For household storage, recommended companies are: - Deye Technology - Goodwe - Airo Energy - Jinlang Technology [3][7] Industry: AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) - Keda Technology has released a profit forecast for 2025, expecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 600-660 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 52%-67% [8] - The trend of electricity shortages in North America is viewed positively for AIDC's overseas expansion [8] - Companies to monitor include: - Jinpan Technology - Igor - Keda Technology - Kehua Data [8] Industry: Geothermal Energy - Demand for geothermal energy in the U.S. is rising due to data center needs, with a focus on leading geothermal company Kaishan Group [9] Industry: Photovoltaics - North America is driving demand for photovoltaic industry chain equipment, with recommended companies including: - Maiwei Technology - JinkoSolar - Shuangliang Eco-Energy - Dongfang Rising - Junda Technology [10] - The AR7 results in the UK exceeded expectations, with positive outlooks for: - Daikin Heavy Industries - Haile Wind Power - Tienshun Wind Power - Dongfang Cable - Zhongtian Technology [10] Industry: Power Grid Equipment - The State Grid's "14th Five-Year Plan" investment of 4 trillion yuan exceeded expectations, with continued optimism for: - Pinggao Electric - XJ Electric - China XD Electric - TBEA - Dalian Electric Porcelain - Siyuan Electric [11] - Risk factors include: - Industry demand falling short of expectations - Price levels not meeting expectations - Supply-side reforms in the industry not meeting expectations [11]