同样在7月，天津市商务局等8部门联合印发《天津市推进首发经济高质量发展的若干措施》，围绕构建首发经济生态圈、打造首发经济平台、优化发展环 境等方面制定具体举措，力图将天津打造为国际国内品牌集聚地和培育地，形成"买全国、卖全国、买全球、卖全球"新局面，焕发津门百年商埠新气象。 中国商报（记者 于佳鑫）"因地制宜推进首发经济，鼓励国内外优质商品和服务品牌开设首店、举办首发首秀首展。"今年3月，中共中央办公厅、国务院 办公厅印发《提振消费专项行动方案》，明确将发展首发经济作为提振消费、扩大内需的关键举措。 今年上半年，全国各地积极响应政策号召，首发经济呈现蓬勃发展态势。从潮玩品牌的主题快闪到经典动画的互动首展，从跨界融合的餐饮模式到特色鲜 明的免税首店，由首发经济催生的一系列商业新业态与消费新体验正在为经济发展注入强劲动力。 各地政策齐发力 "举办全国精品首发季，是商务部贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，积极推进首发经济、大力提振消费的具体举措。商务部将组织各地围绕精品购物、精 致美食、经典旅游、精彩展演等，开展丰富多彩、各具特色的精品首发活动，激发消费新动能，持续释放消费潜力。"在今年3月举行的2025年全国精品首 ...

Group 1 - The core achievement of the "14th Five-Year Plan" is the significant growth of China's consumption market, with the total retail sales of consumer goods expected to rise from 39.1 trillion yuan in 2020 to 48.3 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting an average annual growth of 5.5% [2] - China's total retail sales of consumer goods are approximately 80% of the United States in absolute terms, but in terms of purchasing power, they exceed the U.S. by 1.6 times according to World Bank data [2] - In the first half of this year, it is anticipated that China's total retail sales will surpass 50 trillion yuan for the entire year, with sectors like online retail and automotive sales maintaining a leading global position [2] Group 2 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is characterized by a "renewal" in consumption, with new consumption trends emerging, such as high-quality domestic products and creative trends appealing to younger consumers [3] - The Ministry of Commerce is promoting the integration and innovation of new consumption formats, focusing on digital consumption, quality e-commerce, and cultivating new growth points like "AI + consumption" and "IP + consumption" [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant changes and improvements in China's consumption market during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, characterized by expansion, quality enhancement, renewal, and openness [1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in China are expected to exceed 50 trillion yuan in 2024, with an average annual growth rate of 5.5% from 2020 to 2024, solidifying China's position as the world's second-largest consumer market [1][2] - The retail sector's added value is projected to reach 13.8 trillion yuan in 2024, marking a 40% increase from the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" and accounting for over 10% of GDP, while also creating 135 million jobs [3] Group 2 - The development of new consumption models is emphasized, including digital consumption and quality e-commerce, which are expected to drive innovation and growth in the sector [2] - The logistics costs as a percentage of GDP have decreased from 14.7% to 14.1% over the past five years, indicating improved efficiency in the supply chain and logistics sector [3] - The government plans to continue enhancing the modern commercial circulation system and reduce logistics costs further to support economic circulation and development in the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the achievements and developments in China's consumption market during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, emphasizing the steady expansion and optimization of the market [1][2][3] Group 2 - The scale of the consumption market has significantly increased, with retail sales expected to exceed 50 trillion yuan in 2024, growing from 39.1 trillion yuan in 2020 to 48.3 trillion yuan, reflecting an average annual growth rate of 5.5% [1] - The quality of consumption has improved, with policies like "old-for-new" driving a continuous double-digit growth in retail sales of home appliances, and a 5.4-fold increase in the number of new energy vehicles from 2020 to 2024 [1][2] - Service consumption has entered a rapid growth phase, with an average annual growth rate of 9.6% from 2020 to 2024, outpacing goods consumption, although there is a shortage of quality service supply [2] - New consumption patterns are emerging, with initiatives to innovate retail and promote digital consumption, as well as the integration of AI and IP into consumer experiences [2] - The interaction between domestic and international markets is being enhanced, with significant imports of consumer goods and initiatives to attract international tourists, leading to a 77.8% increase in spending by inbound tourists in 2024 [2] - Looking ahead to the "15th Five-Year Plan," the Ministry of Commerce plans to maintain effective policies from the "14th Five-Year Plan" while adapting to complex international conditions to stimulate consumption and expand domestic demand [3]

行 业 及 产 业 商贸零售 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 报 《京东（JD）点评：核心零售延续增势， 坚定投入外卖协同主业》 2025/07/12 《阿里巴巴（BABA）点评：投入闪购加码 即时零售，AI 驱动云智能加速》 2025/07/10 证券分析师 赵令伊 A0230518100003 zhaoly2@swsresearch.com 联系人 李秀琳 (8621)23297818× lixl2@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 07 月 18 日 平台加码即时零售，关注优质新消 费标的 看好 ——商业零售行业 2025 年二季报业绩前瞻 资料来源：公司公告，申万宏源研究；注：莱绅通灵、重庆百货、永辉超市、小商品城已发布 25Q2 业绩预告 表 1：重点跟踪的商贸零售企业 25Q2 业绩预测 | 代码 | 公司简称 | 25Q2 收入预测 | | 25Q2 归母净利润预测 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ...

Group 1: Retail Sales Insights - In June 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 42,287 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, which was below the consensus expectation of 5.56% [5][6] - For the first half of 2025, the total retail sales amounted to 245,458 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.0%, with Q2 showing a 5.4% increase compared to Q1 [5][6] - Urban retail sales in June were 36,559 billion yuan, growing by 4.8% year-on-year, while rural retail sales were 5,728 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 4.5% [5][6] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Trends - Online retail sales showed rapid growth, with a year-on-year increase of 8.5% for the first half of 2025, while physical retail improved steadily with a 3.59% year-on-year growth in June [5][6] - The food and beverage sector experienced a significant decline, with restaurant service revenue in June rising only 0.9% year-on-year, a drop of 5.0 percentage points from the previous month [6][8] - Essential goods continued to perform well, with year-on-year growth rates for essential and discretionary items at 5.92% and 2.15%, respectively [6][8] Group 3: Economic Indicators - In June 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 3.6%, leading to an expanded PPI-CPI gap of -3.7% [7][14] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 5.0% in June, indicating a steady labor market [7] Group 4: Rare Earth Industry Insights - The rare earth industry maintains a strong global position, with strict mining and smelting quotas continuing into 2025, and the first batch of rare earth quotas for the year expected to remain stable or slightly increase [11][12] - Export controls have been upgraded, particularly for heavy rare earths, with a focus on high-end applications driving growth in the sector [11][12] - Opportunities exist for leading companies to receive policy support for mining, which may alleviate the current shortage of rare earth minerals [12][15] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-end liquor and regional leaders in the beverage sector, as the white liquor market is expected to recover with the expansion of domestic demand policies [8][9] - In the cosmetics sector, despite a slight year-on-year decline of 2.3% in June, the report highlights strong growth potential for quality domestic brands [9][15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's retail sales are projected to reach 50 trillion yuan, driven by a significant shift towards service consumption, which now accounts for 46.1% of total consumption [1][3] - The average annual growth rate of retail sales over the past four years has been stable at 5.5%, with consumption contributing approximately 60% to GDP [1][3] - Service retail sales have surged by 7.5% year-on-year in the first half of the year, outpacing the growth of goods retail [3][4] Group 2 - The rural consumption market is growing faster than urban areas, with a 4.5% growth rate in rural consumption, 0.9 percentage points higher than urban areas [3][4] - The government has introduced 48 new policies to boost service consumption, indicating ongoing support for expanding domestic demand [3][4] - Essential consumption remains stable, with food and daily necessities showing consistent growth, while discretionary spending is more volatile but has seen significant increases in certain sectors like home appliances [4][5] Group 3 - Companies in the service consumption chain, such as those in tourism and entertainment, are expected to benefit significantly from the ongoing consumption upgrade [4][5] - The focus on county-level markets is crucial, as companies that can dominate these areas will have a competitive edge in the evolving consumption landscape [5] - Brands that resonate with national sentiment and cultural identity, such as Li Ning and Luckin Coffee, are positioned to capture the emotional spending of younger consumers [5]

监测的粮油副食类20个品种价格较上周稳定无变化。其中，粳米、小米每斤价格分别为2.75元、5.97 元，与上周持平；其他品类价格均与上周持平。 粮油副食类价格稳定 鸡蛋价格上涨 监测的8个肉禽蛋类品种价格较上周3涨5平。监测的去骨后腿肉、肋排、鸡蛋每斤价格分别为13.52元、 22.17元、3.26元，较上周分别上涨0.62%、1.14%、4.32%；其他品类价格与上周持平。 蔬菜价格以涨为主 监测的17个蔬菜品种价格较上周9涨1平7降。其中油菜、芹菜、青辣椒价格涨幅居前，每斤价格分别为 2.70元、2.30元、3.28元，较上周分别上涨14.84%、5.30%、5.16%；黄瓜、西红柿、大葱价格下降居 前，每斤价格分别为2.49元、3.15元、1.67元，较上周分别下降17.35%、10.62%、7.81%；其他蔬菜品类 价格均小幅波动。 水果价格1涨2降2平 监测的5个水果1涨2降2平。苹果、香蕉每斤价格分别为5.63元、2.86元，较上周分别下降0.15%、 1.43%；西瓜每斤价格分别为1.47元，较上周分别上涨1.73%。（临沂市信用体系建设服务中心） 中国发展网讯 山东省临沂市发展改革委价格监测数 ...

Core Insights - The Ministry of Commerce has reported significant progress in the construction of a modern commercial circulation system since the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan, driven by modern supply chains and high-quality development in the wholesale and retail sectors [1] Group 1: Economic Performance - The wholesale and retail sector's added value is projected to reach 13.8 trillion yuan in 2024, marking a 40% increase compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan, making it the second largest sector after manufacturing [1] - The sector's contribution to GDP will exceed 10%, reaching a historical high, and it is expected to create 135 million jobs [1] - In the first half of this year, the added value of the wholesale and retail sector grew by 5.9% year-on-year, indicating a sustained growth momentum [1] Group 2: Cost Reduction - The total logistics costs as a percentage of GDP have decreased from 14.7% five years ago to 14.1% [1] - Comprehensive logistics costs for key enterprises have been reduced by 10% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the launch of the first "immediate refund" tax refund point in Longhua District, Shenzhen, which simplifies the tax refund process for consumers by allowing them to receive refunds instantly at the point of sale [1][3] - The new policy is expected to unleash the potential of cross-border consumption and inject new momentum into the consumer market in Longhua District, contributing to a breakthrough in consumption scale [1][3] - As of now, the number of tax refund stores in Shenzhen has exceeded 1,600, indicating a significant expansion of the tax refund service network [2][3] Group 2 - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments issued a notice in April to optimize the tax refund policy, lowering the minimum purchase amount for tax refunds to 200 RMB for foreign travelers [2] - The Shenzhen tax authority has streamlined the qualification review process for tax refund stores, significantly reducing the time required for store applications [2] - The introduction of an electronic tax refund channel allows global travelers to use mobile payment platforms like Alipay to process tax refunds easily, enhancing the overall experience for foreign consumers [3]