Core Viewpoint - South Korea's antitrust regulator has imposed a total fine of 408.3 billion KRW (approximately 283.9 million USD) on three major sugar producers for price manipulation [1][3]. Group 1: Companies Involved - The companies fined include CJ CheilJedang, Samyang Foods, and Daehan Flour Mills, which were found to have manipulated sugar prices eight times between February 2021 and April 2025 [1][3]. - These companies collectively generated sales of 3.29 trillion KRW during the aforementioned period through collusion [4]. Group 2: Regulatory Actions and Implications - This fine is the second-highest ever imposed for a single price manipulation case in South Korea and the highest fine against an individual company [5]. - The chairman of the Korea Fair Trade Commission, Ju Biung-ghi, stated that the high entry barriers in the sugar industry allow refining companies to collude for profit stability [5]. - As of 2024, these three companies hold approximately 89% of the market share in the sugar industry [5]. - The regulator noted that these companies coordinated on the timing and extent of price increases to quickly reflect rising raw material costs when international sugar prices increased [5]. - They also pressured food and beverage companies that resisted price hikes and agreed to delay price reductions or reduce them less than the decline in raw material costs when global raw sugar prices fell [5]. - This is not the first time these sugar refining companies have been fined for colluding to manipulate prices, as they had a similar incident in 2007 [5].

本报告的信息均资料来源于公开资料，本公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公 正，但文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息或意见并不构成所述品种的买 免 责 声 明 卖出价，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与本公司无关。 本报告所涵括的信息仅供交流研讨，投资者应合理合法使用本报告所提供的信息、建 议，不得用于未经允许的其他任何用途。如因投资者将本报告所提供的信息、建议用于 非法目的，所产生的一切经济、法律责任均与本公司无关。 2、美国农业部(USDA)周二称，美国在10月开始的2025/26年度糖产量预计将达到941万 短吨的历史高位，受助于甘蔗糖产量增加。美国农业部将甘蔗糖产量预估从1月的420万 短吨上调至430万短吨，维持甜菜糖产量在510万短吨不变。随着这一调整，最终的产量 将超过此前在2024/25年度创下的纪录。在前几年经历了供应紧张之后，创纪录高的产 量预计将改善当地市场的糖供应，但可能会降低对农民支付的价格。衡量供应水平的指 标--糖库存/使用比预估为15.9%，远高于美国农业部通常视为市场充足的13.5%的水平 。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Guangxi Yuegui Holdings Co., Ltd. (粤桂股份) experienced a stock price increase of 5.46%, reaching 20.48 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 475 million CNY and a turnover rate of 5.23%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 16.427 billion CNY [1] - The company, established on October 5, 1994, and listed on November 11, 1998, is primarily engaged in the production and sale of mechanism sugar, paper pulp, and mechanism paper, as well as the mining and processing of sulfur iron ore and the production of sulfuric acid and phosphate fertilizers [1] - The revenue composition of the company includes sulfur concentrate (37.15%), mechanism sugar (21.46%), paper pulp (13.92%), and other products, indicating a diversified business model [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of fund holdings, E Fund's Yuegui Holdings is the second-largest holding in the E Fund Yi Bai Intelligent Quantitative Strategy Mixed A fund, with 167,600 shares held, accounting for 0.42% of the fund's net value [2] - The E Fund Yi Bai Intelligent Quantitative Strategy Mixed A fund has a total scale of 352 million CNY, with a year-to-date return of 8.57% and a one-year return of 52.45%, ranking 1340 out of 8127 in its category [2] - The fund manager, Yin Ming, has a tenure of 4 years and 330 days, achieving a best fund return of 124.36% during this period, while the co-manager, Liu Yang, has been in position for 162 days with a best return of 17.83% [3]

Core Insights - The report titled "2026-2032 China Sugar Industry In-Depth Research and Market Survey Forecast" provides a comprehensive analysis of the sugar industry, including market development environment, operational status, competitive landscape, key enterprise performance, and future trends and investment forecasts [2][3][4]. Industry Environment Overview - The report begins with an overview of the sugar industry, defining its characteristics, historical development, and statistical standards [2][3]. - It includes an analysis of economic indicators such as profitability, growth rate, value-added potential, entry barriers, and industry cycles [2][3]. Current Market Analysis - The report assesses the current operational status of the sugar industry, including macroeconomic conditions and their impact on the industry [3][4]. - It also examines the social and technological environments affecting the sugar industry, highlighting key trends in technology development [3][4]. International Market Insights - A global overview of the sugar market is provided, detailing the development characteristics, product structure, and competitive landscape across different regions, including Europe, North America, and Asia-Pacific [3][4]. - The report analyzes the operational performance of key international sugar companies [3][4]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive structure of the sugar industry is analyzed, including existing competition, potential entrants, and the bargaining power of suppliers and customers [5][6]. - A SWOT analysis is conducted to identify the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats within the sugar industry [5][6]. Regional Market Analysis - The report includes detailed analyses of the sugar industry in various regions of China, such as East China, South China, and North China, focusing on market size, demand, and development prospects [6][7]. Key Enterprises Performance - The performance of leading sugar companies in China is analyzed, including their development status, product structure, production and sales capabilities, and operational efficiency [7][8]. - The report highlights the competitive advantages of these enterprises and their strategies for enhancing market position [7][8]. Future Outlook and Investment Opportunities - The report forecasts the sugar industry's development from 2026 to 2032, including supply and demand predictions, market trends, and investment characteristics [8][9]. - It identifies key investment opportunities within the industry, emphasizing the importance of understanding market dynamics and potential risks [9][10].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 白糖： （张笑金，从业资格号：F0306200；交易咨询资格号：Z0000082） 消息方面，1月上半月，巴西中南部地区甘蔗入榨量为60.5万吨，较去年同期的30.1万吨增加30.4万吨， 同比增幅100.99%；甘蔗ATR为132.95kg/吨，较去年同期的118.32kg/吨增加14.63kg/吨；制糖比为 9.55%，较去年同期的31.77%减少22.22%；产乙醇4.27亿升，较去年同期的3.68亿升增加0.59亿升，同比 增幅16.06%；产糖量为0.7万吨，较去年同期的1.1万吨减少0.4万吨，同比降幅达32.12%。现货报价方 面，广西制糖集团报价区间5290~5380元/吨，部分上调10~20元/吨；云南制糖集团报价5120~5190元/ 吨，上调10元/吨；加工糖厂主流报价区间为5580~5900元/吨，部分上调10~20元/吨。原糖方面，当前供 应充足仍施压市场，3月合约几乎逼近前期低点。北半球增产兑现阶段，市场难有太强表现。国内方 面，假期临近，基本面较为平静，并无太大变化。近期盘面表现略强，主要基于农产品多头配置考虑， ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The sugar market is experiencing a slight price adjustment with a stabilization at low levels, while international sugar prices remain weak. The global sugar surplus for the 2026/27 season is expected to narrow to approximately 1.4 million tons, providing marginal support for future sentiment, but the main logic of "ample supply" remains unchanged in the short term [2][22]. International Market Analysis - The Dubai Sugar Conference indicated a potential narrowing of the global sugar surplus to about 1.4 million tons for the 2026/27 season, which is a marginal positive signal for future sentiment [2][24]. - Speculative sentiment in the ICE raw sugar market is bearish, with net short positions expanding to 239,232 contracts [2][40]. - Brazilian port loading has decreased, reflecting a marginal easing of export pressure, while discussions on the "sugar-ethanol switch" continue, impacting supply expectations [2][24]. Domestic Market Analysis - The domestic sugar production season is coinciding with a consumption off-peak, leading to continued pressure on inventory reduction. In January, Guangxi's sugar production increased by 21,500 tons year-on-year, but sales decreased by 82,900 tons [2][22]. - Yunnan's cumulative sugar production reached 984,100 tons, showing a significant year-on-year increase [2][22]. - The central government's policy emphasizes "stable development" in the sugar industry, reflecting a focus on stability amid high import levels [2][24]. Price and Trading Strategy - The main trading strategy suggests maintaining a range-bound approach, with the primary contract expected to trade between 5,100 and 5,400 yuan per ton, focusing on resistance levels around 5,300 to 5,400 yuan [3][23].

研究所 农产品研发报告 白糖日报 2026 年 2 月 9 日 白糖日报 第一部分 数据分析 | 白糖数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2026/2/9 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减量 | 持仓量 | 增减量 | | SR09 | | 5,274 | 35 | 0.67% | 27,307 | 1448 | 121,060 | 3977 | | SR01 | | 5,379 | 32 | 0.60% | 1,066 | 714 | 3,627 | 739 | | SR05 | | 5,261 | 33 | 0.63% | 253,424 | -4701 | 453,913 | 7005 | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | | 白糖 | | 柳州 | 昆明 | 武汉 | 南宁 | 鲅鱼圈 | 日照 | 西安 | | 今日报价 | | 5360 | 5155 | 5620 | 5340 ...

| | | | | 20260209申万期货品种策略日报-软商品 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | 黄莹(执业编号：F03148260；投资咨询编号：Z0022869） | | | | | | | | huangying@sywgqh.com.cn | | | | | | | 白糖2609 | 白糖2605 | 白糖2603 | 11号糖2603 | 11号糖2607 | 11号糖2605 | | | 前日收盘价 | 5239 | 5228 | 5242 | 14.14 | 13.73 | 14.07 | | | 前2日收盘 价 | 5227 | 5224 | 5243 | 14.27 | 13.84 | 14.15 | | 期 | 涨跌 | 12 | 4 | -1 | -0.13 | -0.11 | -0.08 | | 货 | 涨跌幅% | 0.23 | 0.08 | -0.02 | -0.91 | -0.79 | -0.57 | | 市 | 持仓量 | 117083 | 44690 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's key trading point is whether the current sugar price will bottom - out and rebound. The domestic sugar price is likely to follow the international raw sugar price, with limited upward space and significant pressure at the 60 - day moving average [1]. - The 15 - cent level of international raw sugar is difficult to hold. Due to global surplus, the 15.2 - cent cost line of Brazilian sugar may turn into pressure rather than support [1]. - After the stocking season ends, the 3 - 5 spread of sugar futures may decline as the 03 contract faces greater inventory pressure [3]. - The SR2605 contract is more likely to follow raw sugar fluctuations. The 2026 import pressure will increase from May, and the SR2609 contract has greater pressure than SR2605. New opportunities may emerge in the new 01 contract of the new crushing season [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - For the 05 contract, it is at a discount to the Guangxi sugar price but similar to the Brazilian out - of - quota import price, so it is likely to follow the raw sugar price. Currently, domestic sugar demand is average, and the weak international raw sugar price may drag down the domestic sugar price [1]. - The international raw sugar price has fallen below the 14.5 - 15 - cent oscillation range, and the 15.2 - cent cost line may become pressure due to global surplus [1]. 3.1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - The market is in a bottom - grinding phase. Zhengzhou sugar is oscillating narrowly, with significant pressure near the 60 - day moving average, and there is a risk of a post - rebound decline [8]. - There are no new basis and spread strategies. Past strategies include unilateral long SR2511 (stopped), selling spot and buying SR2511 (entered), long SR2511 and short SR2601 (exited), long SR2601 and short SR2605 (profited) [10]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - The predicted monthly sugar price range is 5000 - 5300 yuan, with a current volatility of 9.94% and a historical percentile of 2.2% in the past 3 years [12]. - For inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high, enterprises can short Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2603) with a 50% hedging ratio at 5300 - 5350 yuan and sell call options (SR603C5400) with a 50% ratio at 35 - 40 yuan to lock in profits and reduce costs [12]. - For procurement management, when the procurement inventory is low, enterprises can long Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2603) with a 25% hedging ratio at 5150 - 5200 yuan and sell put options (SR603P5000) with a 50% ratio at 15 - 20 yuan to lock in procurement costs [12]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: EU's 2026/27 sugar production is expected to drop from 17.1 million tons to about 15.5 million tons due to reduced planting area. Brazil exported about 201,750 tons of sugar in January, a 2.09% year - on - year decrease, and the cumulative export from April 2025 to January 2026 was 30.23 million tons, a 7.15% year - on - year decrease [13]. - **Negative Information**: As of February 5, 2026, 50 sugar mills in Yunnan have started crushing, 2 more than the same period last year, with a daily cane - crushing capacity of 181,900 tons, 7600 tons more than last year. By late February, all 52 mills will start crushing [14]. As of January 31, 2026, in the 2025/26 Guangxi sugar - crushing season, the cumulative cane input was 33.4306 million tons, a decrease of 3.0971 million tons year - on - year; the sugar output was 4.029 million tons, a decrease of 0.788 million tons; the sugar - making rate was 12.05%, a 1.14 - percentage - point decrease; the cumulative sales were 1.5506 million tons, a decrease of 0.8303 million tons; the sales - to - production ratio was 38.49%, a 10.94 - percentage - point decrease [16]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Brazil's weekly port waiting - to - ship sugar quantity and the number of ships (Thursday, Beijing time) [17]. - Brazil's weekly sugar export data (Tuesday, Beijing time) [19]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The domestic sugar price oscillated slightly downward last week. The main SR2605 contract fell 0.38% and reduced positions by 52.29 million lots. The largest profitable seat increased short positions, with a net short position of 31,000 lots, and foreign - funded seats increased net short positions slightly to 45,800 lots. Technically, Zhengzhou sugar is in an oscillatory adjustment, with significant pressure near the 60 - day moving average [20]. - The basis structure shows that the cheapest deliverable is at an 8 - yuan discount to the disk, stronger than last week due to the rising import sugar price. The import profit has declined. The domestic spot price is stable, and the domestic cheapest deliverable is at a 78 - yuan premium to the disk [23]. - The 3 - 5 spread has been oscillating since January and rebounded slightly last week. After the stocking season, the spread may decline as the 03 contract has greater inventory pressure [24]. - **International Market**: The raw sugar price fell 0.84% last week, closing at 14.14 cents, breaking the 14.5 - 15 - cent oscillation range. The CFTC non - commercial position maintained a large short position, with a net short position of 182,000 lots, a decrease of 21,000 lots from the previous week [26]. - The raw sugar futures structure is changing to a Contango structure. The 2025/26 production in Thailand decreased by 25% year - on - year, India's production increased by 22%, and Brazil's production increased. The premium of the far - month contract is beneficial for sugar mills to hedge, and there is hedging pressure above 15.2 cents [30]. - **Domestic - International Spread Tracking**: Due to the quota system, the domestic and international sugar prices are related. Currently, the domestic market is strong and the international market is weak, with good import profits. The domestic spot market is stable, and the international market is weak due to supply surplus in the 2025/26 crushing season [32]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - China is a net sugar importer with high production costs, implementing a quota system with a 15% in - quota tariff and a 50% out - of - quota tariff. Recently, due to the falling international price and stable domestic price, the out - of - quota import profit is substantial. The import of syrup and premixed powder is relatively stable [35]. 3.5 Supply and Inventory Deduction - In the 2025/26 crushing season, the overall sugar production is expected to increase slightly to about 11.56 million tons, a 3.56% year - on - year growth, based on the planting area and cane growth. Other data are estimated based on the 2024/25 season and are for reference only [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "wait - and - see" rating for the sugar industry [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current raw sugar price has fallen below the support level of the Brazilian ethanol conversion price. There is a possibility of reducing the proportion of sugar cane used for sugar production in the new Brazilian sugar - cane crushing season after April this year. After the northern hemisphere starts to finish the sugar - cane crushing in February and the negative impact of increased production is basically realized, the international sugar price may rebound. In the domestic market, the supply of imported sugar sources is gradually decreasing. As the sugar price drops to a low level, the short - term downward space may be limited, so it is recommended to wait and see for now [9] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Industry News**: - As of the week of February 4, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 49, down from 54 the previous week. The amount of sugar waiting to be loaded was 1.5644 million tons, down from 1.7826 million tons the previous week [9] - StoneX expects the global sugar market to remain in surplus in the 2025/26 crushing season, with an estimated surplus of 2.9 million tons [9] - As of January 31, 2026, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season has reached 19.305 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.8% [9] - In the second half of December 2025, the sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 2.171 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.60%. Sugar production was 56,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.93%. The sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio was 21.24%, a decrease of 11.28 percentage points compared with the same period last year [9] - In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons. In 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 570,000 tons. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 crushing season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 310,000 tons. In December, China imported a total of 69,700 tons of syrup and premixed powder, and the cumulative imports in 2025 were 1.1888 million tons [9] - In December, the national sugar production was 2.63 million tons. In the 2025/26 crushing season, the cumulative sugar production was 3.68 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 720,000 tons. In December, the sugar sales volume was 1.22 million tons. In the 2025/26 crushing season, the cumulative sugar sales volume was 1.57 million tons. The cumulative sales - to - production ratio was 31.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 25.56 percentage points. The industrial inventory was 2.11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons [9] - **Viewpoints and Strategies**: Wait and see for now. After the northern hemisphere starts to finish the sugar - cane crushing in February and the negative impact of increased production is basically realized, the international sugar price may rebound. In the domestic market, the supply of imported sugar sources is gradually decreasing. As the sugar price drops to a low level, the short - term downward space may be limited [9] - **Fundamental Assessment**: - The basis is 82 yuan/ton, the monthly spread of Zhengzhou sugar 5 - 9 is - 16 yuan/ton, the production - sales area spread is - 90 yuan/ton, the raw - white sugar spread is 90 US dollars/ton, the sugar - alcohol spread is - 3.09 cents/pound. The cost of the March contract within the quota is 4,007 yuan/ton, and outside the quota is 4,971 yuan/ton [10] - The short - term recommendation is to wait and see [10] - **Trading Strategy Recommendations**: Both unilateral and arbitrage trading strategies recommend waiting and seeing [11] 3.2 Spread Trend Review - **Spot Price and Basis**: The report provides the price trend chart of first - grade white granulated sugar in Nanning, Guangxi and the basis chart of Nanning spot - Zhengzhou sugar main contract [17][18] - **Spot - to - Spot Spread**: It includes the processing sugar basis, production - sales area spread, Zhengzhou sugar 9 - 1 spread, and Zhengzhou sugar 5 - 9 spread charts [20][21][23] - **Domestic - Foreign Spread**: It shows the charts of out - of - quota spot import profit and out - of - quota on - disk import profit [24][25] - **Raw Sugar Monthly Spread**: It provides the spread charts of raw sugar 5 - 7, raw sugar 3 - 5, London white sugar 3 - 5, and London white sugar 5 - 8 [26][27][30] - **Raw - White Sugar Spread**: It shows the spread charts of raw - white sugar 5 - 5 and raw - white sugar 3 - 3 [32][33] - **Raw Sugar Spot Premium and Discount**: It provides the premium and discount charts of Brazilian and Thai raw sugar [34][35] - **Sugar - Alcohol Ratio Fluctuation**: It shows the chart of the production advantage of raw sugar compared with Brazilian hydrous ethanol and the Brazilian oil - alcohol ratio chart [37][38] 3.3 Domestic Market Situation - **National Production**: The report provides the monthly and cumulative sugar production charts in China [42][43] - **Sugar Imports**: It includes the monthly and annual cumulative sugar import volume charts, as well as the monthly and annual cumulative import volume charts of syrup and premixed powder [45][46][48] - **National Sales Volume**: It provides the monthly sugar sales volume and cumulative sales progress charts [50][51] - **National Industrial Inventory**: It shows the monthly industrial inventory and Guangxi three - party warehouse inventory charts [53][54] 3.4 International Market Situation - **Production in Central - Southern Brazil**: It provides the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production volume, cumulative sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio, and cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume charts in central - southern Brazil [58][59][61] - **India's Production**: It shows the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production volume charts in India [63][64] - **Thailand's Production**: It provides the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production volume charts in Thailand [66][67] - **Brazil's Shipment Volume**: It shows the sugar inventory in central - southern Brazil and the sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports [69][70]