Core Viewpoint - Emerging market stocks have rebounded strongly over the past year, but the Saudi stock market has significantly lagged behind, with expectations for little improvement in the coming year due to low oil prices and potential oversupply in commodities [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Saudi stock market is expected to remain unattractive for investors, with analysts suggesting a reduction in holdings of Saudi stocks due to poor performance in earnings growth and development momentum [1] - The Saudi stock market has declined by 11% this year, marking the largest drop since 2015 [1] Group 2: Oil Price Dependency - The Saudi stock market remains closely tied to oil prices, which are projected to remain weak through 2026 [1] - Unlike most other emerging markets, the Saudi stock market is not expected to benefit from a weakening US dollar [1] Group 3: Analyst Recommendations - Citigroup analysts recommend investors to reduce their exposure to Saudi stocks, citing underperformance in key financial metrics [1] - Credit Suisse's emerging market equity strategist highlights the lack of attractiveness in Saudi stocks due to their dependence on oil prices and the broader market dynamics [1]

◆12月4日LME铜价冲破11500美元/吨，12月5日再创新高，年内涨32.77%。点燃这根导火索的，是瑞士 大宗商品交易巨头Mercuria（摩科瑞）从伦敦交易所亚洲仓库一次性注销了超4万吨铜库存，加上贸易 巨头们正争相将全球各地的铜运往美国。短期看，美国关税预期形成套利空间，长期则受AI与能源转 型带来的需求激增影响。但铜供应面临多重瓶颈，华尔街对铜价走势存在分歧。 每日经济新闻 WEEKLY国际财经 2025 | 12 | 06 焦点 E 铜价突破11500美元 场由贸易巨头引爆的 "新石油"争夺战 白宫网站悄悄上线 新版《国家安全战略》 恢复西半球霸权成战略重点 ◆当地时间12月4日晚，美国白宫在其网站上悄然上线本届美国政府的《国家安全战略》。新版《国家 安全战略》"重申并执行门罗主义，恢复美国在西半球的霸权地位"将成为本届美国政府的战略重点。 ◆SpaceX估值超越OpenAI，或翻倍至8000亿美元；迎战谷歌Gemini 3，OpenAI将"紧急提前"发布GPT- 5.2；"影子主席"哈塞特：美联储下周应降息25个基点；奈飞720亿美元吞下华纳兄弟，哈利•波特等经典 IP将易主。 铜价突破115 ...

Market Overview - The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 31.96 points, or 0.07%, closing at 47850.94 [2] - The Nasdaq increased by 51.05 points, or 0.22%, closing at 23505.14 [2] - The S&P 500 rose by 7.40 points, or 0.11%, closing at 6857.12 [2] - European markets showed positive movement, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up by 23.52 points (0.41%) and the German DAX up by 188.32 points (0.79%) [2] - Asian markets had mixed results, with the Nikkei 225 rising by 1163.74 points (2.33%) while the KOSPI fell by 7.79 points (-0.19%) [2] Economic Developments - The U.S. initial jobless claims fell by 27,000 to 191,000, marking the lowest level since September 2022, and below the market expectation of 220,000 [4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in December, with 82% of economists in a Reuters poll supporting this view [7] - Kevin Hassett, the White House National Economic Council Director, indicated that the Fed should lower rates, aligning with recent statements from Fed officials [6] Corporate News - Meta is reportedly planning to cut its metaverse budget by up to 30%, which may lead to layoffs starting in January [9] - Microsoft announced a price increase for its Office software subscriptions for business and government customers, with some plans seeing a rise of 33% [9] - Apple has announced executive changes, with Jennifer Newstead set to become the new General Counsel in March 2026 [10] Commodity Market - Mercuria plans to withdraw over 40,000 tons of copper from LME warehouses, driven by anticipated supply shortages, with a current value of approximately $460 million [11]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down by 31.96 points (0.07%) to 47850.94, the Nasdaq up by 51.04 points (0.22%) to 23505.14, and the S&P 500 up by 7.40 points (0.11%) to 6857.12 [1] - European indices also saw gains, with the German DAX30 up by 212.58 points (0.90%) to 23895.03, the UK FTSE 100 up by 23.03 points (0.24%) to 9715.10, and the French CAC40 up by 34.61 points (0.43%) to 8122.03 [1] Commodity Prices - Light crude oil futures for January 2026 rose by $0.72 to $59.67 per barrel, a 1.22% increase, while February Brent crude oil futures increased by $0.59 to $63.26 per barrel, a 0.94% rise [2] - Spot gold increased by 0.14% to $4208.73 [4] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin fell by 1.2% to $92310.95, and Ethereum dropped over 1.6% to $3136.99 [3] Macroeconomic Indicators - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased to 191,000, with a four-week moving average dropping to 214,700 [5] - The U.S. Treasury debt surpassed $30 trillion for the first time, growing over 100% since 2018, with total national debt reaching $38.4 trillion [6] - The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage in the U.S. fell to 6.19%, the lowest since October of the previous year, leading to a 2.5% increase in mortgage applications [6] Company News - Meta Platforms plans to cut its metaverse budget by up to 30%, indicating a shift in strategy as the anticipated industry competition has not materialized [7] - Apple announced a high-level executive change, with Jennifer Newstead set to become the new General Counsel in March 2026, succeeding Kate Adams [8] - The European Commission is seeking industry feedback on Google's proposed compliance measures to address antitrust issues related to its advertising technology business, which has faced fines of nearly €3 billion (approximately $3.5 billion) [9]

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong is experiencing a significant resurgence as an international financial center, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index showing substantial growth, driven by global capital seeking diversification and safe havens [1] Financial Technology and Asset Tokenization - Hong Kong has risen to the top position in the Global Financial Center Index for fintech, emphasizing a shift from speculative practices to empowering the real economy through technology [2] - The Hong Kong government successfully issued its largest digital green bond, totaling HKD 10 billion, marking a significant milestone in asset tokenization [2] Stablecoins and Regulatory Approach - The Hong Kong government is cautiously approaching stablecoins, with legal frameworks in place and a limited initial issuance planned for next year, focusing on solving real economic issues rather than speculation [3] Capital Market Reforms - Hong Kong is implementing T+1 settlement to enhance market efficiency, with plans to release a consultation document next year to facilitate this transition [4] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange anticipates that by 2027, 88% of global stock markets will adopt T+1 or T+0 settlement cycles, improving synergy with A-shares [4] Asset Management Growth - As of the end of 2024, assets under management in Hong Kong exceeded USD 4 trillion, with approximately 60% from overseas, highlighting both past achievements and future potential [5] Commodity Market Expansion - Hong Kong is actively expanding its commodity market, achieving significant milestones such as being included in the London Metal Exchange's global delivery network and increasing gold trading volumes [7][8] - The average daily trading volume of gold in Hong Kong exceeded HKD 940 million in 2024, reflecting the market's vitality [7] Support for Outbound Chinese Enterprises - The number of companies with overseas parent companies based in Hong Kong reached a record high of 9,960 in 2024, with a significant portion from mainland China [9] - The Hong Kong government is integrating various agencies to support mainland enterprises in their global expansion efforts [9][10] Global Financial Center Positioning - Hong Kong aims to solidify its role as a "stable cornerstone" in the global investment landscape, leveraging its unique advantages to attract family offices and optimize tax policies [11] - The government is exploring tax incentives to attract global corporate treasury centers to Hong Kong, addressing the growing demand for high-end financial services from outbound enterprises [12][13] Gold Market Strategy - Hong Kong is enhancing its gold storage capacity to 2,000 tons and is collaborating with the Shanghai Gold Exchange to strengthen its position in the global gold market [8][15] - The establishment of a central clearing system for gold is planned for next year, aiming to attract international capital seeking safe storage options [15] Financial Innovation and Market Competitiveness - The government is focused on optimizing the "same share, different rights" system to align with international standards while protecting small investors [17] - Continuous market rule optimization is expected to enhance the breadth and depth of the market, reinforcing Hong Kong's competitiveness as an international financial center [17]

Core Insights - The establishment of the first national commodity resource allocation hub in Zhejiang has achieved significant progress in its first year, including major project advancements, improved openness, enhanced industrial chain ecology, and sustained innovation capabilities [1][2] Group 1: Investment and Infrastructure - As of September, the commodity resource allocation hub has realized investments exceeding 43 billion yuan, surpassing the annual target ahead of schedule [1] - The hub has integrated the Zhejiang International Commodity Trading Center and collaborated with the Shanghai Futures Exchange to release 15 "Zhoushan Price" indices, enriching the pricing system [1] Group 2: Trade and Growth Metrics - From January to September, the bonded fuel oil supply at Ningbo Zhoushan Port reached 6.621 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%, while the bonded liquefied natural gas supply reached 175,000 cubic meters, six times the total volume of the previous year [1] Group 3: Institutional Innovation - The hub has formed 59 notable institutional innovation cases in the commodity sector, showcasing the characteristics of originality and integration in reforms [2] - Future plans include promoting reform empowerment and institutional innovation, enhancing industrial development levels, and optimizing the industrial development ecosystem to align with international high-standard trade rules [2]

Core Insights - The construction of the bulk commodity resource allocation hub in Zhejiang has achieved significant investment exceeding 43 billion yuan, surpassing annual targets ahead of schedule [1] - The hub is a key pathway for promoting high-level opening-up and building a strong open province [1] Group 1: Major Project Implementation - The hub's construction is reflected in the successful launch of major projects, including the New Hope LNG Phase III and China Grain Reserves Phase III, enhancing oil reserve capacity to 59.265 million cubic meters and LNG receiving capacity to 17.5 million tons [2] - The Ningbo area has established Asia's largest underground propane storage facility and is advancing a 5 million cubic meter underground oil storage project [2] - New processing and logistics projects have been completed, increasing iron ore blending capacity by 20 million tons and refining capacity by 6 million tons [2] Group 2: Open Platform Development - Zhejiang has created several open platforms to enhance international competitiveness, including the first comprehensive bonded zone focused on bulk commodities, which has received support from seven national ministries [3] - The Zhejiang International Bulk Commodity Trading Center has expanded its trading categories to 44, attracting over 3,700 member enterprises and achieving an online trading volume of 145 billion yuan [3] - The region has also established a global bonded marine fuel supply center, with bonded marine fuel supply volume reaching 6.621 million tons, a 10.7% increase year-on-year [3] Group 3: Institutional Innovation - Zhejiang has developed 59 notable institutional innovation cases to enhance the entire supply chain of bulk commodities, including a digital regulatory system for oil products [4] - The province has implemented a "first supply, then customs declaration" model for bonded lubricants, reducing processing time by over 30% [5] - Financial innovations include the first credit insurance in the bulk commodity sector and successful digital RMB settlements for green power certificates [5]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong Financial Development Council (HKFDC) released a report titled "Unlocking Hong Kong's Potential: Growth Prospects for Expanding the Commodity Market," emphasizing Hong Kong's position as a leading international financial center and its potential to enhance economic resilience through the expansion of its commodity market [1] Group 1: Market Development - The report suggests that strengthening the commodity market ecosystem in Hong Kong is essential for enhancing market efficiency and stimulating trading activities [1] - Key recommendations include focusing on the development of major commodities that align with regional advantages and strategic goals, particularly in gold, iron ore, copper, and aluminum [2] Group 2: Strategic Importance - The report highlights the importance of establishing a robust physical commodity trading foundation before expanding into futures trading, as a strong spot market can significantly activate futures trading [2] - The ongoing global energy transition and the Belt and Road Initiative present new opportunities for commodity trading in Hong Kong [2] Group 3: Role of HKEX - The HKFDC identifies the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) as an ideal candidate to drive further development in the commodity sector [1] - The report emphasizes the need for enhanced connectivity between mainland China and Hong Kong's commodity markets to facilitate growth [1]

Core Insights - Hong Kong's financial market has shown significant growth in both quality and quantity in 2023, with average daily trading volume reaching HKD 256.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 126% [1] - The total fundraising amount in the IPO market reached HKD 182.9 billion, marking a substantial increase of 229% [1] - Hong Kong continues to rank third globally and first in the Asia-Pacific region in the Global Financial Centres Index, reflecting growing international confidence in the market [1] Group 1 - The approval of the first company relocation application signals a positive trend for businesses optimizing their structures and enhancing operational efficiency in Hong Kong [1] - The Hong Kong government aims to attract more mainland enterprises to use Hong Kong as an "outbound" platform, creating business opportunities and economic benefits [1][2] - The establishment of dedicated personnel in the company registry to streamline the registration process for state-owned enterprises is expected to enhance cross-border settlement and financing services [2] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has issued consultation documents to optimize the listing rules for structured products, aiming to enhance market competitiveness and efficiency [2] - Hong Kong's bond issuance hub accounts for nearly 30% of the Asian market, with the Securities and Futures Commission and the Monetary Authority releasing a roadmap to attract issuers [2] - The People's Bank of China has announced measures to support foreign institutional investors in the mainland bond market, enhancing market connectivity and liquidity [3] Group 3 - The demand for gold as a safe-haven asset has surged, with global demand projected to rise by 45% year-on-year by Q2 2025, reaching USD 132 billion [3] - The Hong Kong government is working to establish an international gold trading market and improve storage facilities, reinforcing its position as a financial and trading hub [3] - Upcoming international financial events in Hong Kong aim to enhance the city's global influence and promote investment opportunities [3][4] Group 4 - The Financial Secretary's office will continue to implement measures from the Policy Address to maintain Hong Kong's leadership as an international financial center [4] - The focus will be on policy innovation and resource investment to explore emerging financial sectors and drive economic growth [4]

Core Insights - The demand for gold traders is surging as commodity traders, hedge funds, and banks are actively recruiting professionals in this field due to the rising interest in gold [1][3] - The gold market has traditionally been dominated by a few major banks, such as JPMorgan Chase, HSBC, and UBS, but new entrants are struggling to find experienced talent as they attempt to enter the market [1] - The shortage of skilled gold traders is exacerbated by years of neglect in the banking sector, leading to a scarcity of professionals who understand both macroeconomic factors affecting gold prices and the practicalities of gold storage and transportation [3] Industry Trends - Major commodity trading firms like Trafigura and Glencore have begun hiring multiple precious metals traders, indicating a competitive landscape for talent acquisition [1] - The rising recruitment activity has resulted in a talent shortage, which in turn has driven up salary levels for gold traders [3] - Bonuses for physical trading gold traders may now reach two to three times the salaries offered by banks, highlighting the lucrative nature of this profession in the current market environment [3]