Core Viewpoint - Trafigura warns that market volatility may not translate into profit opportunities for its traders, as its recent financial report shows dividend payments exceeding net profits [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the six months ending in March, Trafigura reported a net profit of $1.52 billion, a slight increase of 2.8% year-on-year [1] - The company paid out $1.54 billion in dividends, a significant increase of 136% year-on-year, surpassing the total dividend amount of $2.02 billion for the entire fiscal year 2024 [1] - Trafigura's net assets decreased to $16.2 billion as of March, down from $16.3 billion at the end of September last year, but still above the minimum target of $15 billion [2] Group 2: Market Conditions and Strategy - The company anticipates continued market volatility into the second half of 2025, driven more by policy decisions than traditional supply-demand imbalances [1] - Trafigura's trading volumes for bulk mineral products decreased by 21% year-on-year, while oil and gas trading volumes remained flat, and non-ferrous metal volumes fell by 4.8% [2] - The company is focusing on enhancing operational efficiency in policies and processes, especially after reporting an $1.1 billion loss in its Mongolia operations due to employee misconduct [2] Group 3: Corporate Actions - Trafigura has delayed some of its share buyback payments due this year, creating financial pressure as high executive turnover has forced the company to spend significantly on repurchasing shares [2] - The company publicly acknowledged its involvement in the $3 billion acquisition of Cogentrix Energy, which increased the value of its non-listed equity holdings from $197 million to $467 million [2]

Group 1 - Shandong International Commodity Trading Market Co., Ltd. (Shandong International) visited Guolian Co., Ltd. and its subsidiary Weiduoduo, indicating a focus on enhancing collaboration in the commodity trading sector [1][4] - Guolian Co., Ltd. and Weiduoduo are leveraging industrial e-commerce, deep supply chain services, big data, cloud ERP, smart logistics, and intelligent factory solutions to drive digital transformation and efficiency in enterprises [3][4] - Shandong International aims to innovate trading models and enhance supply chain precision, utilizing its resources and the strategic location of Qingdao Port to establish a regional spot trading market [4] Group 2 - The meeting included a tour of Guolian's digital economy exhibition hall, showcasing innovative practices in industrial digital economy operations [3] - Both companies expressed a desire for multi-level and multi-angle cooperation, aiming for mutual benefits and growth in their respective industries [4] - Shandong International's strategic positioning along the Belt and Road Initiative is expected to enhance its competitive edge in the Northeast and North China regions [4]

Core Viewpoint - The market sentiment towards the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts has become more conservative, reflecting concerns about the U.S. economy showing signs of recession without timely rate cuts, indicating a bear market [2][25]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The U.S. sovereign rating was downgraded by Moody's from Aaa to Aa1, with a negative outlook due to high interest costs and unsustainable debt growth [2][25]. - Bridgewater's founder, Ray Dalio, purchased $319 million worth of gold mining ETFs in the first quarter, with the GDX ETF returning 31.1%, outperforming the gold ETF's 19.9% [2][25]. - As of May 13, 2023, net long positions in COMEX gold decreased to 345 tons, the lowest level in 63 weeks, while net long positions in silver fell to 4,426 tons [6][2]. Group 2: Fund Positioning in Precious Metals - The net long position in gold funds decreased by 39% year-to-date, while silver funds increased by 69% [8][9]. - Platinum funds saw a net long position increase of 58% year-to-date, while copper transitioned from negative to positive [11][13]. - The gold/silver ratio was reported at 99.265, indicating a high level of market fear, with a year-to-date increase of 11.9% [21][23]. Group 3: Future Projections and Strategies - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in June, with a probability of 91.4% for no change [24][25]. - There is a potential for significant volatility in the dollar and gold prices due to political dynamics, particularly with the upcoming 2025 elections [27][28]. - Strategies suggested include shorting base metals, shorting U.S. stocks, holding gold, and maintaining cash positions as a defensive measure [28][29].

据外媒报道，美联储近日完成了一些隐秘操作——数日内悄无声息地吸筹436亿美元美国国债。仅5月8 日单日就买入88亿美元长期30年期国债，当周前几日更累计购入348亿美元。这绝非小打小闹。 这种悄然回归量化宽松（QE）的操作绝非美联储常规操作——简直像劫匪因忘拿车钥匙而重返犯罪现 场。直言不讳地说：这根本不是货币紧缩，而是隐秘放水，是踮着脚尖实施的货币政策。部分交易员已 察觉端倪，精明投资者更该提高警惕。 金融分析师林恩·奥尔登（Lyn Alden）给出谨慎解读：美联储并未官方宣称这是QE，只是将到期债券收 益进行再投资以避免资产负债表过快收缩。技术层面上确实如此，但别自欺欺人。购买债券就是购买债 券，无论贴上什么官僚标签。 大宗商品交易商对货币魔术尤其敏感。自2024年初以来，终极"金融怀疑论者"——黄金价格一路飙升。 黄金不相信政客、央行行长或经济学家——哪怕是那些常春藤毕业、挥手承诺稳定的精英。它只认数 字。 比特币同样作出了反应——比特币上涨因加密投资者不信任中央计划者，黄金上涨因央行之间互不信 任。比特币是体面投资者假装不曾涉足的"暗巷资产"，其上涨不仅源于对央行及其多年运作的法币庞氏 骗局的不信任， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce has issued a comprehensive pilot work plan to accelerate the opening up of the service industry, outlining 155 pilot tasks, with a focus on innovative trading models such as capacity pre-sale and order transactions [1] Group 1: Policy and Industry Developments - The plan emphasizes the need for innovation in trading models that align with the needs of the real economy, particularly in the context of bulk commodity spot trading platforms and industrial e-commerce [1] - A seminar will be held to analyze the compliance and risk points of capacity pre-sale and order transaction models, providing insights for industry professionals [1] Group 2: Seminar Details and Expert Contributions - The seminar is scheduled for May 27 at the Qingdao International Energy Exchange Center, featuring key industry figures as speakers [2] - Liu Yu, a notable figure in the design of innovative business models in the bulk commodity sector, will provide in-depth analysis on operational models [2] - Other speakers include Feng Yipeng, who will discuss innovative case studies, and Shi Qiuming, who will offer comprehensive interpretations of policy requirements and compliance [2] Group 3: Participation and Registration - The seminar is open for registration to relevant business leaders from spot trading platforms and industrial e-commerce platforms [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that the "capacity pre-sale and order trading model" optimizes resource allocation through "sales-driven production," becoming a key driver for transformation and upgrading in the bulk commodity sector [1][2] - Recent policies, such as the March 2022 document from the Central Committee and State Council, advocate for the construction of a unified national market and the development of bulk commodity trading rules, providing a solid institutional foundation for the innovation of capacity pre-sale and order trading models [1][2] - The September 2023 implementation plan from Pudong New Area supports the innovation of business models like virtual factories and capacity pre-sale, aiming to enhance the integration of trading, manufacturing, and logistics [1][2] Group 2 - The 2025 action plan from Hangzhou also supports the innovation of capacity pre-sale and order trading models, indicating a broader governmental push for high-quality development in bulk commodity trade [2] - The Ministry of Commerce's April 2025 plan highlights the importance of promoting capacity pre-sale and order trading as key tasks, reaffirming their compliance and innovative nature [2] - Experts suggest that local governments should provide more resources and financial support to foster a favorable policy environment for the innovation of these trading models [2] Group 3 - The core of capacity pre-sale and order trading lies in pre-locking future capacity and sales, helping both buyers and sellers optimize resource allocation and reduce market risks [3] - The current state of China's bulk commodity trading market is still in the exploratory phase for these models, lacking unified standards and regulations, which may lead to compliance disputes during innovation [3] - Risk management is a critical topic in the innovation of trading models, with common disputes arising from quality standards, delivery proof validity, and transaction authenticity [3]

大宗商品交易商路易达孚：全球食糖供应平衡将从2024/2025年度的520万吨短缺转变为2025/2026年度 的40万吨过剩。 ...

中美贸易僵局可能正发生转变的迹象越来越明显，双方贸易谈判的前景有助于缓解投资者对全球经济下滑的担忧 文｜《财经》特约撰稿人 金焱 发自华盛顿 编辑｜苏琦 中美关系在5月初释放新信号，带来关税利好。中国商务部表示，美方近期通过相关方面多次主动向中方传递信息，希望与中方谈起来。对此，中方正在 进行评估。这是一项全球期待已久的消息。消息传出后，全球市场沸腾。 港股节后5月开门红，恒生科指收涨3%，欧美股指期货全线上涨。欧洲斯托克50指数期货涨逾1%。欧洲股指周五强劲上涨，受中美贸易谈判希望提振， 同时投资者消化了大量企业财报。德国DAX指数收盘上涨2.6%，法国CAC 40指数上涨2.3%，英国FTSE 100指数上涨1.1%。中国资产雄起，中概股涨势更 胜美股大盘一筹，离岸人民币在美股开盘后涨幅进一步扩大，一度较日低涨超700点、五个月来首次盘中涨破7.21。 原油短线转涨，黄金回吐部分涨幅。 贸易战的暖风叠加美国非农就业人口增长意外强劲，共同推升风险偏好。摄/金焱 5月2日周五，贸易战的暖风叠加美国非农就业人口增长意外强劲，共同推升风险偏好，美股、比特币及更广泛的加密货币等高风险资产价格也有所上涨。 美股高开高 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shandong Property Rights Exchange Center announced the transfer of a 10% stake in Qilu Commodity Trading Service Co., Ltd. by Zhangdian State-owned Assets Operation Co., Ltd. at a base price of 1 yuan, despite the company's negative net profit and net asset valuation [1][2]. Group 1: Company Financials - Qilu Commodity reported a revenue of 6.19 thousand yuan and a net loss of 217.43 thousand yuan for 2023, with a revenue of 0.03 thousand yuan and a net loss of 90.26 thousand yuan from January to September 2024 [2]. - As of September 30, 2024, Qilu Commodity's total assets were 866.69 thousand yuan, total liabilities were 1,090.39 thousand yuan, resulting in a net asset value of -223.7 thousand yuan [2]. - The assessed value of the transferred stake corresponds to a net asset valuation of -22.37 thousand yuan [2]. Group 2: Ownership and Control - Zhangdian State-owned Assets was established in 2016 with a registered capital of 910 million yuan, fully controlled by the Zhangdian District People's Government State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Bureau [2]. - The other shareholder of Qilu Commodity is China New Housing Tai Tong Industrial Co., Ltd., which holds a 90% stake [3]. Group 3: Recent Investment Trends - Zhangdian State-owned Assets has been actively investing, with over 40 companies in its investment portfolio [4]. - However, in 2025, there has been a notable trend of divesting from various companies, with multiple exits recorded, amounting to nearly 3 billion yuan in total investment [5][7]. - The company has also made some new investments, such as a 2 million yuan investment in Zibo Kunpeng Cultural Tourism Development Co., Ltd. [7]. Group 4: Regulatory Context - The recent stake transfer aligns with the Shandong provincial government's directive for state-owned enterprises to focus on their core responsibilities [3]. - A regulatory document issued in August 2023 emphasized the need for stricter oversight of state-owned asset transactions and compliance with financing plans [3].

Group 1 - The Chinese government is accelerating the opening of the service industry amid rising unilateralism and protectionism globally, with a new comprehensive pilot work plan that includes 155 pilot tasks [1] - The work plan encourages the integration of advanced manufacturing and modern service industries to enhance international competitiveness, particularly through innovations in trading models such as capacity pre-sale and order transactions [1] - The establishment of a trading settlement system that aligns with international norms and promotes RMB-denominated products is emphasized to facilitate the efficient integration of manufacturing and services [1] Group 2 - Recent innovations in capacity pre-sale and order trading models on commodity trading platforms have addressed many challenges faced by enterprises and positively impacted the integration of manufacturing and services [2] - The Shanghai Steel Trading Center showcases how production capacities can be auctioned online, allowing sellers to secure customers and buyers to lock in prices, thus enhancing operational efficiency [2] - The "LNG Order Pass," set to launch in June 2024, represents a new order trading model in the oil and gas sector, aimed at improving market transparency and flexibility [2] Group 3 - The "LNG Order Pass" features characteristics such as price locking, dual fulfillment assurance, transparency, and competitive flexibility, which help enterprises manage market uncertainties and efficiently allocate resources [3] - By driving precise matching along the supply chain and embedding services into manufacturing, the integration efficiency of manufacturing and services can be significantly improved [3] - Innovations in trading models and enhanced service levels on commodity trading platforms can strengthen China's resource allocation influence in the global value chain, providing new infrastructure support for service industry expansion [3]