Group 1 - The People's Bank of China announced that by December 2025, the weighted average interest rates for new corporate loans and new personal housing loans are expected to be around 3.1%, a decrease of 2.5 percentage points and 2.6 percentage points respectively since the second half of 2018 [1][1] - The minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans has been lowered to 30% in collaboration with the financial regulatory authority [1][1] - During the New Year's holiday in 2026, the number of viewings for second-hand residential properties in Shenzhen increased by 81% year-on-year, while the signing volume rose by 43%, indicating a sustained market momentum since December of the previous year [2][2] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the need to improve and stabilize expectations in the real estate market, as highlighted in a commentary published in the "Qiushi" magazine [2][2] - Guotai Junan Securities predicts that the continued accommodative policy environment will help consolidate and stabilize the market in 2026 [3][3]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing a significant downturn, moving away from the previous speculative investment model, leading to a focus on service-oriented revenue streams in the housing sector [1][3][15] Group 1: Market Changes - The real estate market has cooled significantly since 2016, with tighter regulations leading to a decline in investment and a shift away from the previous high-leverage, fast-turnover model [3][13] - The once-booming housing market is now characterized by an oversupply of second-hand homes and declining prices, causing uncertainty among homeowners [1][3] Group 2: New Revenue Models - The future of the real estate market lies in service-oriented business models, similar to those in mature markets like the U.S., where income is generated from rental, property management, and various housing services rather than solely from new construction [5][7] - Developers are encouraged to enhance living experiences through improved property management, smart community features, and comprehensive amenities to remain competitive [9][15] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) are lowering the barriers for ordinary investors to participate in commercial real estate, allowing them to earn rental income and returns similar to institutional investors [11][13] - The government is focusing on stabilizing the housing market by discouraging speculative buying and promoting investment in well-managed properties and professional rental markets [13][15] Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The era of quick profits from real estate speculation is over, and the market is returning to a more rational state where quality living experiences and professional services will drive value [15] - Investors who can adapt to the new landscape and focus on accumulating value through quality housing and services will be better positioned for future opportunities [15]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Beike's stock is positively impacted by new policies in the real estate sector, leading to a pre-market increase of 1.6% for Beike (BEKE.US) [1] - The People's Bank of China announced that by December 2025, the weighted average interest rates for new corporate loans and new personal housing loans will be around 3.1%, a decrease of 2.5 percentage points and 2.6 percentage points respectively since the second half of 2018 [1] - The minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans has been lowered to 30%, which is expected to stimulate transactions in the commercial real estate market, positively affecting Beike's core business [1]

Market Overview - The real estate service sector declined by 0.24% compared to the previous trading day, with Ningbo Fuda leading the decline [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4112.6, down 0.33%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14306.73, up 0.41% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Notable gainers included: - Xindazheng (002968) with a closing price of 13.16, up 3.46% on a trading volume of 96,800 shares and a turnover of 128 million yuan [1] - China Merchants Jiyu (001914) closed at 11.28, up 2.73% with a trading volume of 93,900 shares and a turnover of 106 million yuan [1] - Wo Ai Wo Jia (000560) closed at 3.02, up 2.37% with a trading volume of 2.73 million shares and a turnover of 818 million yuan [1] - Decliners included: - Ningbo Fuda (600724) closed at 6.21, down 6.19% with a trading volume of 467,700 shares and a turnover of 293 million yuan [2] - Shun Tian Service (002188) closed at 6.41, down 0.62% with a trading volume of 188,300 shares and a turnover of 120 million yuan [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The real estate service sector saw a net inflow of 152 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 1.47 billion yuan [2] - Key stocks in terms of capital flow included: - Wo Ai Wo Jia (000560) had a net inflow of 89.52 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 48.37 million yuan [3] - Special Service (300917) had a net inflow of 78.24 million yuan from institutional investors, with a significant net outflow of 76.47 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Ningbo Fuda (600724) experienced a net inflow of 13.71 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 33.44 million yuan from retail investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The housing provident fund system in China is expected to undergo significant reforms by 2026, focusing on expanding usage, improving efficiency, and supporting inter-city recognition and lending [2][3][8] Group 1: Policy Changes and Trends - Recent discussions highlight the need for more flexible withdrawal conditions and expanded usage scenarios for the housing provident fund, including payments for down payments, property fees, renovation costs, and taxes [2][4] - The Central Economic Work Conference in December 2025 marked the first call for deepening reforms of the housing provident fund in nearly a decade, indicating a shift in policy direction [3][4] - In 2025, over 630 real estate policies were introduced nationwide, with approximately 280 related to the housing provident fund, focusing on increasing loan limits and optimizing withdrawal conditions [4] Group 2: Local Government Initiatives - Cities like Shenyang and Chengdu have introduced new policies to optimize housing provident fund loans, including extending minimum down payment ratios and allowing family members to withdraw funds for home purchases [5][6] - Local governments are increasingly allowing the use of housing provident funds for non-traditional expenses, such as property fees and rental payments, reflecting a broader acceptance of fund usage [5][9] Group 3: Challenges and Recommendations - Despite the reforms, challenges remain, particularly regarding the efficiency of inter-city loan and withdrawal processes, which are often hindered by lengthy verification procedures [8] - Experts suggest that the housing provident fund should evolve from a welfare-based system to a more inclusive financial tool that addresses the needs of new citizens, young people, and flexible workers [7][9] - The current trend shows a decline in the proportion of provident fund withdrawals for housing consumption, indicating a need for policy adjustments to enhance its role in supporting housing needs [7][8]

证券之星消息，1月14日房地产服务板块较上一交易日上涨1.32%，宁波富达领涨。当日上证指数报收于 4126.09，下跌0.31%。深证成指报收于14248.6，上涨0.56%。房地产服务板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002188 | 中天服务 | 6.45 | -1.83% | 27.14万 | 1.76亿 | | 000056 | 皇庭国际 | 2.09 | -1.42% | 46.95万 | 9897.04万 | | 001914 | 招商积余 | 10.98 | -1.35% | 10.99万 | 1.22亿 | | 002285 | 世联行 | 2.97 | -1.00% | 114.32万 | 3.42亿 | | 600136 | ST明诚 | 1.70 | -0.58% | 24.29万 | 4137.33万 | | 000560 | 我爱我家 | 2.95 | -0.34% | 148.03万 | 4.38亿 | | 300917 | 特发 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 Beijing real estate market shows signs of resilience despite challenges, with office vacancy rates declining for four consecutive quarters and retail properties benefiting from urban renewal initiatives [1] Office Market - The office market in Beijing experienced a historical low in new supply, with only 180,000 square meters added in 2025, alleviating market de-stocking pressure [2] - New leasing demand showed a "high-middle-weak" trend throughout the year, with relocation needs dominating at 76% of transactions, while the area of relocation transactions decreased compared to the previous year [2][3] - The net absorption for the year reached 438,000 square meters, leading to a year-on-year vacancy rate decrease of 1.9 percentage points to 19.1% [3] - Average rental prices in the city fell by 2.7% year-on-year to 228.5 yuan per square meter, with a total annual decline of 10.7% [4] Retail Market - The retail property market saw a total new supply of 534,000 square meters, all from urban renewal projects, indicating a shift towards "old for new" strategies [6] - The overall retail sales in Beijing decreased by 3.1% year-on-year, but the decline rate has narrowed, suggesting signs of market stabilization [7] - The average rent for shopping centers decreased by 1.0% to 30.0 yuan per square meter, with an annual decline of 2.4% [8] Warehouse and Logistics Market - The warehouse and logistics market faced a supply peak with 1.4 million square meters added, resulting in a record high vacancy rate of 40.7% [10] - The demand shifted from third-party logistics to manufacturing, with new leasing demand driven by sectors like automotive parts and pharmaceuticals, accounting for 40% of new leases [10][11] - Average rents in Beijing fell to 37.1 yuan per square meter, marking a 14.8% annual decline [11] Business Park Market - The business park market welcomed seven new projects, primarily in the life sciences sector, totaling 598,000 square meters [12] - The net absorption for the year was 465,000 square meters, with the strongest demand observed in the Yizhuang Economic Development Zone [13] - Average rents in the business park sector decreased by 2.4% year-on-year, with an annual decline of 10.9% [14] Investment Market - The Beijing investment market recorded 40 transactions totaling 23.27 billion yuan, with a notable increase in transaction volume in the fourth quarter [16] - Corporate buyers accounted for 71% of transactions, indicating a strong interest in core assets despite a decline in transaction value [17] - Office assets dominated the market, comprising 64% of total transaction value, reflecting a continued preference for core area properties [18]

今日早参 2026 年 1 月 14 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 陈慎 房地产行业首席研究员 座机：021 38476038 邮箱：chenshen@htsc.com 陈慎 房地产行业首席研究员 座机：021 38476038 邮箱：chenshen@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：美国 12 月通胀反弹幅度低于预期 12 月核心 CPI 环比增速不及预期，并未出现此前市场普遍预期的因政府关 门影响消退所带来的明显反弹。12 月核心 CPI 环比 0.2%，较 11 月（较 9 月复合增速，下同）边际上行 0.16pp，不及预期（彭博一致预期，下同）的 0.3%，核心 CPI 同比持平于 2.6%，符合预期；12 月 CPI 环比 0.3%，较 11 月边际上行 0.21pp，CPI 同比持平于 2.7%，均符合预期。由于 12 月核心 CPI 环比不及预期，截至北京时间 23 点整，较数据公布前，联储降息预期 持平于 52bp，2y、10y 美债收益率均下行 2bp 分别至 3.45%、4.17%，美 元指数基本持平于 99，标普 500 期货先涨后跌基本持平。 风险提 ...

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