汽车与零部件行业 行业研究 | 深度报告 1 季度行业营收平稳增长，优质整车及汽零 盈利好于平均水平 ——汽车行业 1 季度经营分析及投资策略 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 从投资策略上看，1 季度汽车行业竞争加剧导致汽车公司盈利能力、现金流等整体表现相 对承压，但部分行业地位领先、经营管理效率较高的整车及零部件公司仍然实现净利 润、毛利率、经营性现金流同比改善，业绩表现跑优于行业平均水平；随着汽车"两 新"政策以及地方促消费政策效果持续释放、车展期间多款新车发布，预计 2季度有望促 进汽车公司业绩表现逐步回暖。建议持续关注部分汽车行业央国企及人形机器人链、华 为产业链、小米产业链、T 链、智驾产业链公司。 国家/地区 中国 行业 汽车与零部件行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 12 日 | 姜雪晴 | jiangxueqing@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860512060001 | | 袁俊轩 | yuanjunxuan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523070005 | | | | | 上海 ...

主要客户车型调整影响业绩，机器人业务 全面推进 核心观点 ⚫ 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 预测 2025-2027 年归母净利润为 35.38、42.86、51.17 亿元，可比公司 2025 年 PE 平均估值 35 倍，目标价 71.40 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 机器人业务进展不及预期、乘用车行业销量低于预期、NVH 产品、内饰功能件产品、轻 量化底盘产品、热管理产品配套量低于预期、产品价格下降幅度超预期。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 19,701 | 26,600 | 33,461 | 41,551 | 49,344 | | 同比增长 (%) | 23.2% | 35.0% | 25.8% | 24.2% | 18.8% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 2,476 | 3,420 | 4,005 | 4,853 | 5,795 | | 同比增长 (%) | 25.2% | 38.1% | 17.1% | 21.2% | 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 67.50 CNY, based on a 27x PE valuation for comparable companies in 2025 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 41.8% year-on-year in Q1, with total revenue reaching 2.638 billion CNY and a net profit of 270 million CNY, reflecting a 28.8% increase [9]. - The company is expanding its customer base, having added eight new clients in North America, including Ford and Changan Mazda, which is expected to drive future growth [9]. - The company is focusing on new technology and product development, aiming to enhance its competitive edge and increase the value per vehicle through innovations in electric control systems and lightweight components [9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 13.011 billion CNY, 15.962 billion CNY, and 19.698 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 30.9%, 22.7%, and 23.4% [4][11]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1.518 billion CNY in 2025, 1.863 billion CNY in 2026, and 2.298 billion CNY in 2027, with growth rates of 25.6%, 22.8%, and 23.3% [4][11]. - The company's gross margin is expected to stabilize around 22.0% to 22.5% from 2025 to 2027, while the net margin is projected to remain at 11.7% [4][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 67.50 CNY, based on a 27x PE valuation for comparable companies in 2025 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 41.8% year-on-year in Q1, with total revenue reaching 2.638 billion CNY and a net profit of 270 million CNY, reflecting a 28.8% increase [9]. - The company is expanding its customer base, having added eight new clients in North America, including Ford and Changan Mazda, which is expected to drive future growth [9]. - The company is focusing on new technology and product development, aiming to enhance its competitive edge and increase the value per vehicle through innovations in electric control systems and lightweight components [9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 13.011 billion CNY, 15.962 billion CNY, and 19.698 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 30.9%, 22.7%, and 23.4% [4][11]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1.518 billion CNY in 2025, 1.863 billion CNY in 2026, and 2.298 billion CNY in 2027, with growth rates of 25.6%, 22.8%, and 23.3% [4][11]. - The company's gross margin is expected to stabilize around 22.0% to 22.5% from 2025 to 2027, while the net margin is projected to remain at 11.7% [4][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 40.32 CNY [2][6]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing improved gross margins and is accelerating its expansion into new product areas, particularly in the electric vehicle sector [1][10]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue of 6.62 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 29.7%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 0.48 million CNY, up 13.8% year-on-year [10]. - The company is actively developing new products in the new energy sector and has successfully completed a fundraising project to support its smart manufacturing initiatives [10]. Financial Forecast and Performance - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is expected to be 244 million CNY, 305 million CNY, and 375 million CNY respectively, with a significant growth rate of 49.1% in 2025 [2][4]. - Revenue is projected to grow from 2,020 million CNY in 2023 to 4,032 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.5% [4][11]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 21.8% in 2023 to 25.7% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [4][11]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is expanding its client base in the new energy vehicle sector, targeting major clients such as Bosch and NIO, and plans to increase production capacity significantly [10]. - A joint venture has been established to enhance the company's capabilities in the robotics sector, focusing on humanoid robots and automotive electronic components [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 140.99 CNY [5][2] Core Views - The company has achieved significant growth in Q1, with revenue reaching 3.095 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 28.3%, and net profit attributable to the parent company at 322 million CNY, up 32.7% year-on-year [9] - The company is actively expanding its customer base in the new energy vehicle sector and has opened up overseas markets, which is expected to drive future growth [9][8] - The company is a preferred partner for Huawei's smart automotive solutions, enhancing its product offerings and market position [9] Financial Forecast and Investment Suggestions - EPS is projected to be 6.13 CNY in 2025, 7.56 CNY in 2026, and 9.11 CNY in 2027, with an average PE valuation of 23 times for comparable companies in 2025 [2] - Revenue is expected to grow from 10.248 billion CNY in 2023 to 21.386 billion CNY in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.7% [4][10] - Operating profit is forecasted to increase from 1.199 billion CNY in 2023 to 3.064 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [4][10] Key Financial Information - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at 10.248 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 24.3% [4] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 20.6% in 2023 to 22.4% in 2027, indicating better cost management and pricing power [4] - The net profit margin is projected to increase from 10.8% in 2023 to 12.2% in 2027, showcasing enhanced profitability [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 40.32 CNY, based on a projected average PE of 36 times for comparable companies in 2025 [2][5]. Core Views - The company is actively expanding new projects and developing its robotics business to cultivate a second growth curve [1]. - The financial performance for 2024 is in line with expectations, with a projected revenue of 2.352 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.4%, and a net profit of 163 million CNY, up 11.9% year-on-year [8]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its global presence and expanding its product offerings in the new energy sector, including partnerships with major clients in the automotive industry [8]. Financial Forecasts - The forecasted net profits for the years 2025 to 2027 are 244 million CNY, 305 million CNY, and 375 million CNY respectively, with a significant increase of 49.1% in 2025 compared to the previous year [2][4]. - Revenue projections show a steady increase from 2.889 billion CNY in 2025 to 4.032 billion CNY in 2027, with growth rates of 22.8%, 17.8%, and 18.5% respectively [4][8]. Key Financial Metrics - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 24.0% in 2024 to 25.7% in 2027, indicating better cost management and pricing strategies [4][8]. - The net profit margin is projected to increase from 6.9% in 2024 to 9.3% in 2027, reflecting enhanced profitability [4][8]. - The return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to rise from 6.1% in 2024 to 8.9% in 2027, showcasing improved efficiency in generating profits from shareholders' equity [4][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 17.01 CNY [5] Core Views - The company is expected to see improvements in profitability for its self-owned new energy brands, with a focus on advancing smart technology and expanding overseas [1] - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 80.30 billion, 94.71 billion, and 113.13 billion CNY respectively, with a target price based on a PE ratio of 21 times the average of comparable companies [2] Financial Performance Summary - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at 151.298 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 24.8%. The revenue is expected to reach 159.733 billion CNY in 2024, growing by 5.6% [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is estimated at 11.327 billion CNY, reflecting a 45.2% increase year-on-year. However, it is expected to decrease to 7.321 billion CNY in 2024, a decline of 35.4% [4] - The gross margin for 2023 is 17.3%, with projections of 14.9% in 2024 and improvements to 18.2% by 2027 [4] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.95 CNY for every 10 shares to all shareholders in 2024 [9] Sales and Market Expansion - The sales volume of the company's self-owned new energy vehicles is expected to maintain high growth, with significant increases in sales for brands like Deep Blue and Avita [9] - The company aims to introduce 12 new products in high-growth markets such as Southeast Asia, Europe, and the Middle East in 2025 [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 71.40 CNY, based on an average PE valuation of 35 times for comparable companies in 2025 [2][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.54 billion CNY in 2025, with projections of 3.54 billion CNY, 4.29 billion CNY, and 5.12 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2]. - The company is experiencing rapid growth in its automotive electronics and robotics businesses, with significant contributions from both organic growth and acquisitions [11]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 19.70 billion CNY in 2023 to 49.34 billion CNY in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 23.2%, 35.0%, 25.8%, 24.2%, and 18.8% respectively [4][13]. - The gross profit margin is expected to stabilize around 21.4% from 2026 onwards, after a slight decline in 2024 [4][11]. - The net profit margin is projected to be around 10.6% in 2025, with a gradual increase to 10.4% by 2027 [4][11]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 5.19 CNY for every 10 shares to its shareholders [11]. Business Growth and Strategy - The company is expanding its production capacity both domestically and internationally, with new factories in Mexico and Thailand, and plans for a robotics industry base [11][12]. - The automotive electronics segment is expected to see substantial growth, with significant orders and projects in smart cabins and air suspension systems [11]. - The company is actively pursuing mergers and acquisitions to enhance its market position, including a recent acquisition of a 100% stake in Wuhu Changpeng Automotive Parts Co., Ltd. for 330 million CNY [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 44.66 CNY, based on a projected average PE of 29 times for comparable companies in 2025 [2][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.11 billion CNY, 10.12 billion CNY, and 12.53 billion CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a strong growth trajectory [2]. - The automotive electronics and precision die-casting businesses are continuously securing new projects, reflecting robust demand and expansion opportunities [1][9]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 7,137 million CNY in 2023 to 17,273 million CNY in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26.6% in 2023 and 17.5% in 2027 [4][11]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to increase from 465 million CNY in 2023 to 1,253 million CNY in 2027, with a growth rate of 22.2% in 2023 and 23.8% in 2027 [4][11]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 20.8% to 21.6% over the forecast period, while the net margin is projected to improve from 6.5% in 2023 to 7.3% in 2027 [4][11]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is anticipated to rise from 0.89 CNY in 2023 to 2.39 CNY in 2027 [4][11]. Business Development - The automotive electronics segment is experiencing rapid growth, with the company actively engaging in the smart and connected vehicle transformation, launching various domain control products based on Qualcomm chip solutions [9]. - The precision die-casting business is also expanding, with significant increases in sales of automotive intelligent components and electric drive system parts, alongside new project acquisitions from major clients [9].