%% %% 行业研究丨深度报告丨白酒与葡萄酒 [Table_Title] 三得利烈酒发展复盘：因势酝变，厚积薄发 %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 三得利是仅次于帝亚吉欧和保乐力加的全球西式烈酒龙头，产品主要包括内生的角瓶、響、山 崎、白州等日本威士忌，和主要由对 Beam 收购获得的波本威士忌、伏特加、龙舌兰等。威士 忌作为外来酒种在日本生根发芽高增，一次是 20 世纪 50-80 年代西式消费需求主导、三得利 供给端扩张为辅，一次是 2008 年后三得利饮用方法供给端创新主导、需求端性价比消费风潮 为辅。三得利成为日本威士忌龙头的原因，对外是政策的多方面保护阻止了海外威士忌的竞争， 对内是更灵活的经营策略使其在与 Nikka 等酒企的竞争中收获多次关键节点上的先发优势。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 董思远 徐爽 朱梦兰 SAC：S0490517070016 SAC：S0490520030001 SAC：S0490522050003 SFC：BQK487 石智坤 SAC：S0490522090002 SFC：B ...

Group 1: Beer Industry Developments - Major beer companies are reducing workforce to control costs amid increasing competition in the industry [1][3] - Budweiser APAC reduced its workforce from approximately 25,000 in 2023 to over 21,000 in 2024, a decrease of about 4,000 employees or 16% [3] - Yanjing Beer and China Resources Beer also reported reductions of over 1,000 employees each, while Qingdao Beer cut more than 800 positions [3] Group 2: Wine Industry Events - The 5th China (Ningxia) International Wine Culture and Tourism Expo will be held from June 9 to 12, showcasing over 200 domestic and international wineries [5] - The expo will feature various activities, including a national wine industry skills competition and a cultural exhibition [5] Group 3: Labor Issues in Wine Sector - Workers at LVMH's champagne house went on strike on May 13, protesting salary and job security issues [7] - The wine and spirits division of LVMH is facing financial pressure, with a reported loss of €1.5 billion in 2024, contrasting with a cash flow of €1 billion in 2019 [7] Group 4: Leadership Changes - Treasury Wine Estates appointed Sam Fischer as the new CEO, with a compensation package including a fixed salary of AUD 1.73 million and a signing bonus of AUD 4 million [10][11] Group 5: Company Responses and Strategies - Luzhou Laojiao addressed concerns about halting orders, stating that it is maintaining normal supply channels and preparing for the upcoming Dragon Boat Festival [12][13] - Luzhou Laojiao plans to launch innovative products targeting younger consumers, including a collaboration with the sci-fi series "The Three-Body Problem" [12] Group 6: Share Buybacks and Financial Confidence - Kweichow Moutai announced a share buyback of 624,600 shares for a total of CNY 10.11 billion, completing two-thirds of its buyback plan [15] - The company plans to spend between CNY 3 billion and CNY 6 billion on share repurchases within the next 12 months [15] Group 7: Ningxia Wine Export Growth - Ningxia's wine exports reached CNY 13.75 million in 2024, supported by the development of 30 well-known wine import and export enterprises [17] - The brand value of Ningxia's Helan Mountain wine exceeded CNY 34 billion, ranking 8th in the regional brand value list [17]

【深圳商报讯】（记者李佳佳）5月9日，记者从第九届"深圳（湾区）国际品牌周"主场活动——2025粤 港澳大湾区质量品牌峰会上获悉，国际著名品牌价值评估咨询机构Brand Finance联合深圳工业总会，发 布了"2025中国品牌价值500强"中英文榜单。 作为全球领先的国际品牌价值评估机构，Brand Finance每年会对全球数千个知名品牌进行评估，并在每 年初的世界经济论坛期间年会上发布新一年的"全球品牌价值500强报告"，在国际上具高度权威性。 今年，粤港澳大湾区共有109个品牌上榜，深圳入榜的34个品牌中有17个"深圳知名品牌"和13个"国际信 誉品牌"。榜单前十的深圳品牌有腾讯、中国平安等。 报告显示，中国500强品牌总价值同比增长3%，达到2万亿美元，展现出中国品牌在全球竞争中的强劲 韧性与创新活力。 短视频平台抖音以1058亿美元的品牌价值连续两年蝉联榜首，其全球化布局与内容生态创新持续释放商 业潜力。 国家电网凭借绿色转型与数字化升级战略，品牌价值跃升至856亿美元，首次超越中国工商银行（791亿 美元），跻身第二。 工商银行、建设银行、农业银行等国有大行稳居前十，其中，中国银行以26.5%的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The American Distilled Spirits Association expresses a desire for continued negotiations between the U.S. and the EU to ensure that tariffs on distilled spirits are permanently reduced to zero [1] Industry Summary - The American Distilled Spirits Association is advocating for the elimination of tariffs on distilled spirits, which could significantly impact trade relations and market dynamics between the U.S. and the EU [1]

印度政府官员：在英国贸易协议下，尚未设定烈酒关税减免的最低进口价格。 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of 30.24 yuan for the next six months, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% compared to the market benchmark [5]. Core Insights - The company experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in 2024, with total revenue of 3.048 billion yuan, down 6.61% year-on-year, and a net profit of 719 million yuan, down 11.15% year-on-year. However, the first quarter of 2025 showed signs of recovery with revenue of 737 million yuan, down 8.11% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 7.03% to 181 million yuan [1][2]. - The pre-mixed cocktail segment faced challenges, with revenue of 2.677 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 7.17% year-on-year. Despite this, the gross margin improved by 2.42% due to product mix optimization and lower raw material costs. The edible flavoring business grew steadily, achieving revenue of 337 million yuan, up 6.30% year-on-year [2]. - The company is actively expanding its liquor business, launching new whiskey products and targeting a broader market. The whiskey segment is expected to exceed expectations, with projected revenues of 3.615 billion yuan in 2025, 4.148 billion yuan in 2026, and 4.792 billion yuan in 2027 [3]. Financial Summary - The company reported a total revenue of 3.048 billion yuan for 2024, with projections of 3.615 billion yuan for 2025, 4.148 billion yuan for 2026, and 4.792 billion yuan for 2027, indicating a recovery trajectory [4][10]. - The net profit for 2024 was 719 million yuan, with forecasts of 882 million yuan for 2025, 1.045 billion yuan for 2026, and 1.211 billion yuan for 2027, reflecting a positive growth outlook [4][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.84 yuan in 2025, 1.00 yuan in 2026, and 1.15 yuan in 2027, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 36 times for 2025 [4][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [12] Core Insights - Pernod Ricard is a global leader in Western spirits, with a revenue scale second only to Diageo, achieving a fiscal year 2024 revenue of €11.6 billion (approximately ¥88.9 billion) and a CAGR of 4.1% from 2000 to 2024 [7][19] - The company has a diversified brand matrix with 240 brands, including 17 in the top 100 globally, and holds a market share of 8% worldwide, with significant presence in over 160 countries [7][19] - The growth strategy focuses on acquisitions followed by internal cultivation, with a long-term price increase and emphasis on leading brands [7][19] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Pernod Ricard has evolved from a small French aniseed liquor company to the second-largest global spirits company through strategic acquisitions and a decentralized management system [4][9] Historical Development - The company's history can be divided into three phases: pre-2000 focusing on establishing a foundation in France and Europe, 2001-2008 marked by significant acquisitions like Schenley, Allied Domecq, and V&S, and post-2008 focusing on optimizing operations and enhancing high-end brand offerings [8][51] Brand Matrix and Market Position - The brand matrix is comprehensive, covering all major spirit categories, with a strong presence in whisky and vodka, which are the primary revenue sources [24][30] - The company’s market share in whisky is 16.9%, ranking second globally, while vodka and gin also hold significant market shares [30][41] Geographic Distribution - The company has a balanced revenue distribution across regions, with the Americas, Asia, and Europe contributing 28.8%, 42.9%, and 28.3% respectively in fiscal year 2024 [35][38] - The largest markets by revenue are the USA (18.1%), India (12.1%), and France (9.2%) [35][38] Growth Drivers - The growth is primarily driven by internal operations after establishing a solid brand foundation through acquisitions, with a focus on core products and markets [45] - Price increases have been a significant driver of long-term revenue growth, with a CAGR of 4.45% in average price from FY2007 to FY2024 [45]

私募、基础设施基金上涨，黑石三季度业绩超预期。 今年第三季度黑石集团（BX.N）可分配给股东的收入同比增长 6% 至 13 亿美元。旗下私募股权基 金和基础设施基金表现强劲，分别上涨 6.3% 和 5.5%，推动基金价值上涨、幅度为三年来最高。盈 利指标超预期外，黑石资管规模创纪录、为 1.1 万亿美元。本季度，黑石还以 160 亿美元的企业价 值收购澳大利亚数据运营商 AirTrunk，是今年规模最大的一笔杠杆收购。 雀巢销量不及预期，正在精简组织架构。 雀巢（NESN.S）今年前三个季度销售额同比降 2.4% 至 671 亿瑞士法郎（约为 5521 亿元），各地 区销售额均同比降低。业绩不及预期的原因除了俄乌冲突后谷物、能源等成本变高之外，CEO 傅 乐宏还提到消费需求减弱，预期持续疲软，第四季度将进一步去库存。雀巢还在经历组织架构和执 行董事会的变动，为了 "提升集团绩效和加速转型"。 中国市场疲软，保乐力加季度表现低于预期。 烈酒公司保乐力加（PERP.PA）旗下有马爹利干邑和绝对伏特加等品牌。在截至 9 月底的财季里， 保乐力加销售额同比下降 5.9% 至 27.83 亿欧元。和 LVMH 集团一样 ...