Core Viewpoint - The domestic methanol market is experiencing a significant divergence between the northern and southern regions, with the northern market facing tight supply and rising prices, while the southern market is burdened by high inventory levels and weak demand [1][2]. Group 1: Northern Market Dynamics - The northern methanol market is benefiting from three key factors: seasonal maintenance leading to reduced production, increased demand due to upcoming holidays, and higher external procurement by some methanol-to-olefins (MTO) facilities [1][3]. - As of September 12, the inventory of major methanol producers in Northwest China was approximately 200,000 tons, which is 100,000 to 150,000 tons lower than historical levels, supporting a robust price performance [1][3]. Group 2: Southern Market Challenges - In contrast, the southern coastal methanol market is facing a significant inventory surge, with total port inventory reaching 1.5503 million tons as of September 11, surpassing the previous high of 1.4789 million tons in 2019 [2][3]. - The increase in port inventory is attributed to a combination of high import volumes and weak downstream demand, reflecting a broader trend of weak supply and demand in the industry [2][4]. Group 3: Factors Contributing to High Inventory - The surge in port inventory is primarily due to a "delivery wave" caused by delayed shipments from Iran, which were exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and subsequent price reductions to clear stock [3][4]. - Additionally, stable supply from Southeast Asia and a shift in Middle Eastern methanol flows to China due to sanctions on India have further intensified the inventory pressure at ports [3][4]. Group 4: Demand Weakness and Market Outlook - Weak demand from both overseas and domestic markets has compounded the inventory issues, with reduced operating rates in downstream industries and a sluggish oil market contributing to the high inventory levels [4][5]. - Despite the current high inventory situation, analysts believe that the market may see improvements starting in November when industrial gas usage is expected to decrease, potentially leading to a seasonal inventory reduction [5][6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, domestic methanol supply will gradually recover, and imports will remain at a high level, but the marginal increase in overall supply is limited. Due to the improvement in profits, MTO plants are expected to resume production, and demand is expected to pick up in September. Overall, the marginal increase in supply is limited, demand will pick up marginally, and total inventory is expected to peak. Therefore, methanol prices are expected to enter a phased bottom - area, and investors should pay attention to buying opportunities on dips [3] 3. Summaries Based on the Table of Contents 3.1 Supply: 9 - month domestic start - up stabilizes, and output is expected to increase slightly - **Production Profit**: Coal - to - methanol profits fluctuated within a narrow range. For example, coal - to - methanol profits in Inner Mongolia and Shandong showed different trends over time [6][7][8] - **Domestic Production**: In August, the domestic start - up rate was slightly lower than in July, and production decreased by 290,000 tons. It is expected that production in September will recover to around 9.7 million tons [3] - **Import Profit and Foreign Supply**: Iranian plants were operating normally in August, and production is expected to be stable in September. The import volume increased significantly to around 1.8 million tons in August. As the India - China price spread widened significantly, the subsequent arrival volume is expected to peak, and the import volume in September is expected to remain high but with limited growth [3][15] 3.2 Demand: MTO plants have the expectation of resuming production, and demand is supported - **Downstream Margins**: As methanol prices weakened, downstream profits generally improved. It is expected that MTO plants will have a resumption plan in September. For example, the margins of acetic acid, MTO, formaldehyde, etc. showed different trends over time [27][33] - **Downstream Start - up Rates and Purchases**: The start - up rates of MTO, formaldehyde, MTBE, acetic acid, etc. showed different trends over time. Factory orders, MTO purchases, and traditional downstream purchases also had their own characteristics [39][40][43][44] 3.3 Inventory: It is expected that inventory will peak in September - **Total Inventory**: There was an unexpected inventory build - up, and it is expected that the total inventory will peak in September [45] - **Inland Inventory**: There were many refinery overhauls in August, and inventory was transferred to the social sector, but the actual inventory still increased [48] - **Port Inventory**: With a significant increase in arrival volume, port inventory quickly reached a five - year high [58] 3.4 Price Spreads: The basis fluctuated and strengthened - **Domestic Regional Price Spreads**: There were various domestic regional price spreads, such as the spreads between different regions like Lubei - Inner Mongolia North, Lubei - Inner Mongolia South, etc., which showed different trends over time [62][63][65] - **Domestic Freight Rates**: Freight rates between different regions, such as Inner Mongolia North - Lubei, Inner Mongolia South - Lubei, etc., also had their own trends [71][72] - **Domestic Logistics Windows**: The logistics window between Shanxi - Lubei showed certain fluctuations [79][80] - **Internal - External Price Spreads**: There were price spreads between Southeast Asia - China and India - China, which also changed over time [81] - **Basis and Calendar Spreads**: The basis fluctuated and strengthened. Calendar spreads such as 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 also showed different trends [87][88][89] 3.5 Warehouse Receipts: Slightly increased compared to last month - The number of warehouse receipts showed a slight increase compared to the previous month [93]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the supply pressure of methanol was prominent, and the methanol futures continued to decline and adjust. The methanol market presented a pattern of significant supply - side pressure, marginal improvement but insufficient resilience on the demand side, and weak cost support, resulting in overall market pressure [6][7]. - The "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season for methanol is approaching, but currently, the downstream demand has not significantly increased. Most devices are still in a state of loss and low operation, and downstream enterprises mainly make rigid - demand purchases. The market may still show a pattern of strong supply and weak demand in September, with port inventories expected to continue increasing and prices facing certain downward pressure [8]. - In the short term, the fundamentals of methanol still show strong supply and weak demand, and methanol prices are likely to remain weak. It is recommended to wait and see [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol Trend Review - Last week, the supply pressure of methanol was prominent, and the methanol futures continued to decline. By Friday afternoon's close, the weighted methanol closed at 2,348 yuan/ton, a 1.55% drop from the previous week [6][13]. - In the spot market, the port methanol inventory increased significantly, and the port market was under pressure to decline. The price in Jiangsu fluctuated between 2,220 - 2,320 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong between 2,240 - 2,300 yuan/ton. The inland methanol price also decreased due to factors such as inventory accumulation and the impact of low - priced Xinjiang goods [13]. Methanol Fundamental Analysis Production - From August 22 - 28, 2025, China's methanol production was 1,918,285 tons, an increase of 24,290 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 84.84%, a 1.29% increase from the previous week. The recovery volume was greater than the loss volume [15]. Downstream Demand - As of August 28, the capacity utilization rates of some downstream methanol products varied. The olefin industry's starting rate increased, with the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region at 61.94%, a 0.42 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether, glacial acetic acid, and formaldehyde decreased, while that of chlorides increased [18][19]. Inventory - As of August 27, 2025, the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises was 333,400 tons, a 22,600 - ton increase from the previous period, a 7.27% increase. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 217,000 tons, a 9,600 - ton increase from the previous period, a 4.64% increase [21]. - As of August 27, 2025, the inventory of China's methanol port samples was 1,299,300 tons, a 223,300 - ton increase from the previous week, a 20.75% increase. Ports in different regions all had inventory accumulations [23]. Profit - From August 22 - 28, 2025, the theoretical profit of coal - based methanol production increased, while the profits of coke - oven gas - based and natural - gas - based methanol production weakened. Gas - based methanol continued to operate at a loss. For example, the weekly average profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia was 82.10 yuan/ton, a 44.54% increase from the previous week [25]. Methanol Trend Outlook Supply - This week, the resumption of domestic methanol devices may continue to exceed the number of overhauls. It is expected that China's methanol production this week will be about 1.9762 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 87.40%, an increase from last week [32]. Downstream Demand - The olefin industry's starting rate will continue to increase slightly; the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether is expected to decrease; the capacity utilization rate of glacial acetic acid is expected to increase slightly; the capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde is expected to decrease; and the capacity utilization rate of chlorides is expected to increase slightly [33][34]. Inventory - The inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 337,000 tons this week, a slight increase from last week. Port inventories are expected to continue to accumulate [34]. - Overall, the supply - demand situation of methanol remains weak, and the fundamentals have no obvious improvement. In the short term, it is likely to continue to fluctuate and consolidate [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The port methanol inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The demand side shows that the olefin devices are operating stably, with an overall increase in the start - up rate. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2460 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2425 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is - 111 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton [2]. - The main contract's open interest is 680234 lots, an increase of 5501 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 108124 lots, a decrease of 875 lots [2]. - The number of warehouse receipts is 10766, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2300 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 2070 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 230 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is - 125 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton [2]. - The CFR price at the main Chinese port is 261 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 322 dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The FOB price in Rotterdam is 284 euros/ton, up 8 euros/ton; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 61 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The NYMEX natural gas price is 2.76 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.15 dollars/million British thermal units [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 70.62 tons, an increase of 1.92 tons; the inventory in South China ports is 36.98 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons [2]. - The methanol import profit is 23.38 yuan/ton, down 2.02 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 122.02 tons, a decrease of 7.21 tons [2]. - The inventory of inland enterprises is 310800 tons, an increase of 15200 tons; the methanol enterprise operating rate is 82.4%, up 0.79 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 42.05%, up 0.43 percentage points; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 7.15%, up 1.82 percentage points [2]. - The acetic acid operating rate is 91.06%, up 1.82 percentage points; the MTBE operating rate is 63.39%, down 3.23 percentage points [2]. - The olefin operating rate is 83.12%, down 0.77 percentage points; the methanol - to - olefin profit on the disk is - 1027 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 18.26%, down 1.81 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 17.53%, down 0.08 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 17.43%, up 0.54 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 17.35%, up 0.45 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of August 20, the total methanol port inventory in China is 107.60 tons, an increase of 5.42 tons. East and South China ports have both accumulated inventory [2]. - As of August 20, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 31.08 tons, an increase of 1.52 tons, a 5.15% increase; the order backlog is 20.74 tons, a decrease of 1.20 tons, a 5.47% decrease [2]. - As of August 21, the domestic methanol - to - olefin device capacity utilization rate is 85.70%, a 1.45% increase [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's methanol port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, and the olefin industry's operating rate will increase. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2460 in the short term [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2424 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is -109 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 674733 lots, down 11543 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -107249 lots, up 10590 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 10766, unchanged [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2290 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Inner Mongolia, it is 2070 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The price difference between East China and Northwest is 220 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is -134 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan. CFR China Main Port is 259 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars; CFR Southeast Asia is 322 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars. FOB Rotterdam is 276 euros/ton, up 4 euros; the price difference between China Main Port and Southeast Asia is -63 dollars/ton, unchanged [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - NYMEX natural gas price is 2.76 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.15 dollars [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - East China port inventory is 68.7 tons, up 4.5 tons; South China port inventory is 33.48 tons, up 5.13 tons. Methanol import profit is 25.4 yuan/ton, down 16.09 yuan; monthly import volume is 122.02 tons, down 7.21 tons. Inland enterprise inventory is 295600 tons, up 1900 tons; methanol enterprise operating rate is 82.4%, up 0.79% [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Formaldehyde operating rate is 42.05%, up 0.43%; dimethyl ether operating rate is 7.15%, up 1.82%; acetic acid operating rate is 91.06%, up 1.82%; MTBE operating rate is 63.39%, down 3.23%; olefin operating rate is 83.12%, down 0.77%. Methanol - to - olefin disk profit is -1016 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 20.07%, up 0.26%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 17.61%, up 0.32%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 16.89%, up 0.48%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 16.9%, up 0.49% [3] 3.7 Industry News - As of August 20, China's methanol port inventory is 107.60 tons, up 5.42 tons; sample production enterprise inventory is 31.08 tons, up 1.52 tons, a 5.15% increase; sample enterprise orders to be delivered are 20.74 tons, down 1.20 tons, a 5.47% decrease. As of August 14, domestic methanol - to - olefin device capacity utilization rate is 84.71%, a -0.41% decrease [3] 3.8 Viewpoint Summary - The overall methanol production has a slight increase. The enterprise inventory level has a slight increase. The port inventory continues to accumulate. The olefin industry's operating rate will increase after the restart of the Yanchang Zhongmei Yulin olefin device [3] 3.9 Prompt Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory and port inventory data from Longzhong on Wednesday [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report With increasing supply and stable downstream demand, methanol inventories at ports are accumulating rapidly. Against the backdrop of increasing supply, shorting on rallies is the main strategy for methanol trading [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - **Futures Market**: The futures market fluctuated, closing at 2391 (-9/-0.38%) [3]. - **Spot Market**: In production areas, prices range from 2090 to 2230 yuan/ton; in consumption areas, prices range from 2200 to 2320 yuan/ton; at ports, prices range from 2270 to 2310 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information This week (20250818 - 0819), the weekly signing volume (excluding long - term contracts) of methanol sample production enterprises in the Northwest was 28,300 tons (2.83 million tons), a decrease of 7,500 tons (0.75 million tons) from the previous statistical day, a month - on - month decrease of 20.95% [4]. Logic Analysis - **Supply Side**: Coal - producing areas in the Northwest have seen a significant decline in coal mine operating rates, with a rebound in raw coal prices. Methanol production profits are high and stable, and domestic supply is continuously abundant. Import supply is also increasing, with Iran's production recovering [5]. - **Demand Side**: Traditional downstream industries are in the off - season, with a decline in operating rates. MTO device operating rates are rising, but some devices have reduced loads or stopped production. Overall, demand is stable [5]. - **Inventory**: Port inventories are accumulating due to increased imports, while inland enterprise inventories are fluctuating within a narrow range [5]. Trading Strategy - **Single - sided**: Short on rallies, do not chase short positions [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [6]. - **Options**: Sell call options [10].

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Methanol Daily Report, August 13, 2025 [3] - Research area: Commodity research - Energy and chemical industry [1][2] - Researcher: Zhang Mengchao [8] Group 2: Market Review - Futures market: The futures price closed at 2391, up 6 or 0.25% [4] - Spot market: Various regions had different methanol prices, with production areas ranging from 2090 - 2230 yuan/ton, consumption areas from 2230 - 2320 yuan/ton, and ports from 2360 - 2380 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Important News - Zhejiang Xingxing New Energy Technology Co., Ltd.'s 690,000 - ton/year methanol - to - olefins plant stopped on July 30, and the restart time is to be tracked [5] Group 4: Logic Analysis - Supply side: Coal mine开工率 in the northwest decreased, coal prices rebounded, methanol开工率 was high and stable, and domestic supply was loose [6] - Import side: The US dollar price fell slightly last week, import profit increased, foreign开工率 was high, and Iranian shipments to China increased [6] - Demand side: Traditional downstream entered the off - season, MTO开工率 increased, but some MTO plants had reduced loads or stopped [6] - Inventory: Port inventory increased, and inland enterprise inventory fluctuated slightly [6] - Overall: International装置开工率 was stable, imports recovered, demand was stable, and ports accelerated inventory accumulation. Methanol supply increased, and it was advisable to short at high prices [6] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Single - side: Short at high prices, do not chase short [7] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [7] - Options: Sell call options [10]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The improvement in the methanol fundamentals is limited, and methanol is likely to oscillate weakly in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see for now [1][9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Methanol Trend Review - Last week, due to limited improvement in methanol fundamentals, methanol futures oscillated narrowly. By Friday afternoon's close, methanol weighted closed at 2430 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous week. The average price of the port methanol market declined, while the inland market rose [12]. 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week, China's methanol production was 1,845,225 tons, a decrease of 67,900 tons from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 81.61%, a week - on - week drop of 3.55%. The number of newly - overhauled devices exceeded those that resumed production [13]. - **Downstream Demand**: The overall downstream demand was stable. The capacity utilization rates of some downstream products showed mixed trends. For example, the olefin industry's开工 rate increased, while the capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde decreased [17][19]. - **Inventory**: As of August 6, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 293,700 tons, a decrease of 30,800 tons from the previous period, and the order backlog was 240,800 tons, an increase of 10,100 tons. The port sample inventory was 925,500 tons, an increase of 117,100 tons from the previous period [20][24]. - **Profit**: Most methanol enterprises' profits declined last week, with only the profit of coke - oven gas - based methanol showing a slight increase [26]. 3.3 Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: This week, the number of methanol devices resuming production is expected to exceed those under overhaul. China's methanol production is expected to be about 1.8873 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is about 83.47%, an increase from last week [31]. - **Downstream Demand**: The demand is expected to remain stable overall. The capacity utilization rates of some downstream products are expected to change slightly. For example, the olefin industry's开工 rate is expected to decline, while the capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde is expected to increase [32][35]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 292,300 tons, remaining at a low level. The port inventory is expected to continue to increase [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol market shows a narrow - range oscillation pattern in the short term. There is limited willingness to short - sell at the fundamental valuation support level of methanol in the short - term market. This is due to two main reasons: the "anti - involution" policy, although not as aggressive in the short term, has a long - term policy orientation, which supports the overall valuation of commodities; currently, the methanol fundamentals are neutral, with expected inventory accumulation at ports and price resilience in the inland area, resulting in an unclear price drive [4]. - In the short term, the single - side trend is slightly weak, and it oscillates in the medium term. The upper pressure range is 2420 - 2430 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is 2320 - 2330 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs This Week's Methanol Summary Supply - This week (20250801 - 0807), China's methanol production was 1,845,225 tons, a decrease of 67,900 tons from last week. The plant capacity utilization rate was 81.61%, a 3.55% decrease from the previous week. The decrease in production is mainly related to the increase in maintenance devices this period. The planned maintenance devices for the next period are expected to decrease, and the recovery devices may increase, so the overall market supply may increase [4]. Demand - Olefins: Zhejiang Xingxing continued to be shut down this week. Shenhua Ningxia resumed operation after a short - term shutdown last week. Qinghai Salt Lake reduced its load, and Xinjiang Hengyou resumed operation at a low load. After the hedging of each enterprise's devices, the olefin industry's start - up rate increased. Next week, Shenhua Xinjiang's olefin device is expected to shut down, leading to a decline in the start - up rate. - Traditional downstream: For dimethyl ether, the on - site devices are expected to maintain the previous dynamic stability next week, and the overall capacity utilization rate is expected to be flat compared to this week. For glacial acetic acid, Yanchang and Changcheng will resume normal operation next week. If there are no other unexpected device failures, the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly. For formaldehyde, the Puyang Pengxin device has the expectation of resuming operation next week. Without other unexpected device failures, the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase compared to this week. For chlorides, the Jinling Dongying device may operate at full capacity next week. Without other unexpected device shutdowns or load reductions, the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase compared to this week [4]. Inventory - As of August 6, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 293,700 tons, a decrease of 30,800 tons from the previous period, a 9.50% decrease. The sample enterprises' orders to be delivered were 240,800 tons, an increase of 10,100 tons from the previous period, a 4.37% increase. - As of August 6, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol port samples was 925,500 tons, an increase of 117,100 tons from the previous period, a 14.49% increase. The methanol port inventory increased significantly this week. After the unsealing, the arrival and unloading speed of ships accelerated, with 238,000 tons of overseas vessel's visible unloading. The提货 volume in the mainstream storage areas in Jiangsu increased slightly, but the consumption in Zhejiang weakened significantly due to the shutdown of olefin plants. Therefore, inventory accumulated under the background of concentrated unloading. The inventory in South China ports continued to increase. In Guangdong, both imported and domestic trade vessels arrived this week. Due to the continued weak demand, the提货 volume in the mainstream storage areas was average, and the inventory continued to accumulate. In Fujian, the imported supply continued to be replenished, and the downstream demand was mediocre, so the inventory also increased [4]. Price and Spread - The report presents multiple price - related charts, including the basis, monthly spread, and warehouse receipt of methanol in the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, domestic and international spot prices, and port - inland price differences from 2020 - 2025 [7][11][16]. Supply New Capacity Summary - From 2024 - 2025, China's new methanol production capacity was significant. In 2024, the total new capacity expansion was 4 million tons, and in 2025, it was 8.4 million tons. Overseas, the total new international capacity expansion in 2024 was 3.55 million tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 3.3 million tons [24]. Maintenance Summary - The report lists the domestic methanol device maintenance statistics, including the region, manufacturer, capacity, raw material, start time, end time, and remarks of each maintenance device [26]. Production and Start - up Rate - The report provides charts of methanol production and capacity utilization rates in China and different regions (such as the Northwest, Southwest, Central China, and East China) from 2018 - 2025, as well as the production of methanol from different processes (such as coke oven gas, coal single - methanol, natural gas, and coal co - methanol) [27][29]. Import - Related - The report shows charts of China's monthly methanol import volume, import cost, weekly arrival volume, and import profit from 2020 - 2025 [36]. Cost and Profit - The report presents charts of the production cost and profit of methanol from different processes (such as coal - based in Inner Mongolia and Shandong, coke - oven - gas - based in Hebei, and natural - gas - based in Chongqing) from 2020 - 2025 [41][44]. Demand Downstream Start - up Rate - The report provides charts of the capacity utilization rates of methanol downstream industries, including methanol - to - olefins, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, MTBE, etc., in China from 2020 - 2025 [50]. Downstream Profit - The report shows the production profit charts of methanol downstream industries (such as methanol - to - olefins in East China and Shandong, formaldehyde in Shandong, MTBE in Shandong, and glacial acetic acid in Jiangsu) from 2020 - 2025 [58][62]. Procurement Volume - The report presents the procurement volume charts of methanol - to - olefins production enterprises and traditional downstream manufacturers in different regions (such as China, East China, Northwest China, and Central China) from 2020 - 2025 [66][71]. Raw Material Inventory - The report shows the raw material inventory charts of methanol downstream manufacturers in different regions (such as China, Northwest China, Shandong, and South China) from 2020 - 2025 [76]. Inventory - The report provides charts of methanol factory inventory in China and different regions (such as East China, Northwest China, and Inner Mongolia) from 2018 - 2025, as well as the port inventory in China and different ports (such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong) [81][87].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Last week, the impact of the improved domestic macro - face expectations gradually faded, and the fundamentals of methanol improved limitedly. The methanol futures fell and adjusted, closing at 2,429 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, down 4.41% from the previous week. This week, methanol production is expected to increase, demand may improve slightly but remain weak overall, and inventory may rise. Methanol is likely to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [6][8][9] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Methanol Trend Review - Last week, methanol futures fell and adjusted. The weighted methanol closed at 2,429 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, down 4.41% from the previous week. The spot price in Jiangsu fluctuated between 2,370 - 2,500 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong between 2,380 - 2,490 yuan/ton. The port methanol market was under pressure and prices fell, while the inland market rose [13] 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Production - From July 25 - 31, 2025, China's methanol production was 1,930,125 tons, an increase of 31,300 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 85.36%, a 1.64% increase [16] 2.2 Downstream Demand - As of July 31, 2025, the olefin industry's start - up increased slightly, with the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang at 75.28%, down 4 percentage points from the previous week. The dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate was 5.33%, remaining flat. The acetic acid capacity utilization rate decreased. The methane chloride capacity utilization rate was 81.42%, with an obvious increase in supply. The formaldehyde capacity utilization rate was 43.29%, showing an increase [19][21] 2.3 Inventory - As of July 30, 2025, the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises was 324,500 tons, a decrease of 15,300 tons from the previous period, a 4.51% decline. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 230,700 tons, a decrease of 14,100 tons from the previous period, a 5.76% decline. The port sample inventory was 808,400 tons, an increase of 82,600 tons from the previous period, an 11.38% increase [23][26] 2.4 Profit - From July 25 - 31, 2025, the weekly average profit of domestic methanol samples was mostly good. The theoretical profits of coal - based and coke - oven gas - based methanol continued to rise, while natural - gas - based methanol continued to lose money. The weekly average profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia was 153.86 yuan/ton, a 22.84% increase; in Shandong, it was 193.86 yuan/ton, a 12.70% increase; in Shanxi, it was 175.18 yuan/ton, a 3.50% increase. The weekly average profit of coke - oven gas - based methanol in Hebei was 271 yuan/ton, an 11.07% increase. The weekly average profit of natural - gas - based methanol in the southwest was - 266 yuan/ton, a 0.76% decrease [28] 3. Methanol Trend Outlook 3.1 Supply - This week, the methanol production is expected to be about 1.9465 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is about 86.08%, an increase from last week [31] 3.2 Downstream Demand - The olefin industry's start - up has room to rise. The dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate is expected to increase. The acetic acid capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly. The formaldehyde capacity utilization rate is expected to decrease. The chloride capacity utilization rate is expected to increase [32][34] 3.3 Inventory - The inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 323,300 tons, with a slight reduction from last week. The port inventory is expected to continue to rise, but the impact of weather on the unloading speed needs to be noted [35]